Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
SriKumar
BRFite
Posts: 1894
Joined: 27 Feb 2006 07:22
Location: sarvatra

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SriKumar » 13 Feb 2020 08:21

1. Thanks Amber.G. To your second point, the article you had linked (a scientific study from a govt/acaedmic source) placed the infection rate from person-to-person at 70% via people who come out of Wuhan, 1.18% due to wet market and the rest from people who visited Wuhan directly. So, person-to-person is easily the greatest threat.

2. Wuhan before lockdown: I looked for news items on Wuhan a few days before the lockdown (Jan 23) to see what the mahaul was like, how panicked or calm (dumb and happy) were the people or their red-suited officials. This news item dated Jan 21 show the officials slowly waking to a problem in Wuhan to a point they 'wanted' to quarantine 'a hotspot' within Wuhan. The only official urging was for people to not leave Wuhan (!). But Wuhan itself was not quarantined. So until Jan 22, all Wuhanese were free to roam around town. 11 million of them minus those who left for Lunar NY. Officials show a calm and measured demeanor (per pronouncements).
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as ... story.html

3. We are getting estimates of infection rates (R0) from studies from Wuhan (and the cruise ship) that were done after quarantine was instituted. The Diamond princess was radioactive even before it docked in Japan, quarantine procedures were in place probably after it left Hong Kong (my guess); In Wuhan quarantine was put after Jan 23. I think there should be 2 different infection rates: before quarantine and after quarantine. I am betting it was far higher before quarantine was applied. The range of 1.2 to 3.5 is after Jan 23.

5. A Japanese medical official who boarded the ship on day one was found infected. JApanese are sticklers for procedure and cleanliness, and this still happened. He was wearing a mask and gloves but no full-body suit. Now extrapolate this situation to Wuhan on Jan 20. Not trying to be sensationalist, I just dont know. R0 values before Jan 23 should shed light.

https://fox8.com/news/japan-confirms-39 ... uise-ship/

6. I still think the date of first dectection of nCV, is significant. The exponential growth of cases starts from then on. Dec 12 is the best I have. If the infection rate simply doubled (very simplistic approach) things can get problematic in 3 weeks (2^ 21 days = ~2 million) but manageable in 2 weeks (2^ 14 days = ~16,000). A couple of days can make a big difference .Before the resident adhyaapaks jump on me....yes, I concede this is very simplistic 'model' so to speak. :(( . I found some ODEs on the web but I dont have Matlab on my personal laptop......atleast that's my excuse. :P
Last edited by SriKumar on 13 Feb 2020 08:35, edited 1 time in total.

saip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3660
Joined: 17 Jan 2003 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saip » 13 Feb 2020 08:32

A very steep jump today because they changed how they count the infected. That resulted in one day increase of 14 K to over 60k and also deaths of 242
Death toll jumps by 242 in Hubei, where 14,840 new infections were recorded on Wednesday - CNN
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/12/asia/pri ... index.html
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

Atmavik
BRFite
Posts: 699
Joined: 24 Aug 2016 04:43

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Atmavik » 13 Feb 2020 09:01

chola wrote:Interesting video of the Costco in Shanghai. Looks pretty packed (maybe even chinis feel better that Costco won't stock civet cats and bats.)

Though kind of unnerving with everyone in masks. More unnerving is there are people without them. I see that and I'm heading in the other direction.



maybe they expect an extended lock down and are stocking up?

here is a cnbc interview from Beijing. looks like things on ground are tightening up with more controls. security guards have now wearing hazmat suits instead of masks.

watch from 7:24

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEEFyTOrEC4

g.sarkar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2234
Joined: 09 Jul 2005 12:22
Location: MERCED, California

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby g.sarkar » 13 Feb 2020 09:07

https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coro ... index.html
New coronavirus case confirmed in southern California
From CNN's Sarah Moon
A new case of the coronavirus has been confirmed in Southern California’s Marine Corps Air Station Miramar in San Diego County, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention press officer Ana Toro told CNN.
....
Death toll jumps by 242 in Hubei province while the global death toll from coronavirus rises to 1,357
From CNN’s Steven Jiang in Beijing
The Hubei health authority reported that 242 more people died from the coronavirus in Hubei province on Wednesday, raising the death toll in the epicenter since the beginning of the outbreak to 1,310.
This brings the total number of deaths in mainland China to at least 1,355. The global death toll is at least 1,357, with one death in Hong Kong and another in the Philippines.
Hubei authorities confirmed an additional 14,840 cases of the virus in Hubei on Wednesday, which brings the total number of cases in the epicenter of the outbreak to 48,206. The 14,840 figure includes both test confirmed cases and clinically diagnosed cases.
The government explained they are now adding "clinically diagnosed cases" in the tally of cases to make it easier for these patients to receive treatment early.
.....
Gautam

Atmavik
BRFite
Posts: 699
Joined: 24 Aug 2016 04:43

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Atmavik » 13 Feb 2020 09:17

the latest video from downtown shanghai. we see very few people and most of them are in supermarkets buying groceries.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oh9_WMkLB_k

g.sarkar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2234
Joined: 09 Jul 2005 12:22
Location: MERCED, California

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby g.sarkar » 13 Feb 2020 09:39

Amber G. wrote:
...sequence matches one found in bats (is this enough to say the COVID-19 virus came from bats?).

You may already know this.. (may be some expert here put in more details).. but it is fair to say that virtually *all* such corona virus (SARS, MERS etc) originated from Bats.. IOW Bats are full of those viruses. For SARS it "jumped" from bats to civets to human.. for MERS from bats to camels and for COVID, it (or at least some think) it jumped from bats to pangolins ...

I thought that poultry (chicken and ducks) and pigs were involved in the spread of the virus some how. These animals are reared very near to humans in China, enabling the virus to jump species. I remember a large number of animals were culled in China some years ago. Those days no one spoke about eating bat soup on the sly!
Gautam

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4076
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 13 Feb 2020 09:44

Atmavik wrote:maybe they expect an extended lock down and are stocking up?

here is a cnbc interview from Beijing. looks like things on ground are tightening up with more controls. security guards have now wearing hazmat suits instead of masks.

watch from 7:24

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEEFyTOrEC4


I think there would have been panic buying in Cheen for weeks now. The second they heard quarantine, it would have been the expected reaction.


Atmavik wrote:the latest video from downtown shanghai. we see very few people and most of them are in supermarkets buying groceries.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oh9_WMkLB_k


Completely empty metro is eerie. That tells me that outside the grocery stores no economic activity is being generated. The world's largest economy (by consumption totals) has been knocked back to subsistence level.

tandav
BRFite
Posts: 539
Joined: 26 Aug 2016 08:24

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby tandav » 13 Feb 2020 10:46

All I could think of is how I would have loved to live here instead of Mumbai or any other Indian city (nCov notwithstanding). There is a certain planning, beauty, aesthetics and ergonomics that the Chinese have created that we have to emulate

sanjaykumar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4221
Joined: 16 Oct 2005 05:51

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sanjaykumar » 13 Feb 2020 10:53

Too bad they are only giving infection incidents in the west. Breakdown by age, ethnicity and most of all disease severity would be welcome.

madhu
BRFite
Posts: 316
Joined: 12 Oct 2005 17:00
Location: India

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby madhu » 13 Feb 2020 15:51

Case Fatality Rate (CFR): rep portion of cases who eventually die due to diseases. this is based on paperand also as suggested above.
CFR = death/(death+recovered)
as on 13/feb/2020 following are the figures

Worldwide CFR = 1369/(1369+6017) = 18.53%
mainland China CFR = 1367/(1367+5944)=18.69%
Hubei alone CFR = 1310/(1310+3441) = 27.57%
rest of Hubei (China) CFR = (1367-1310)/((1367-1310)+(5944-3441)) = 2.22%
rest of world CFR = 2/(2+73) = 2.66%

so CFR is higly skewed towards bigger number due to Hubei data.
Fatality might may be due to lack of medical care and not mainly due to COVID19

hnair
Forum Moderator
Posts: 3820
Joined: 03 May 2006 01:31
Location: Trivandrum

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby hnair » 13 Feb 2020 18:06

Two western sources:

China accused of under-reporting coronavirus outbreak

Luo Jun, a 45-year-old woman from Wuhan, said she had been suffering from severe viral pneumonia since Saturday. With private cars banned from the roads, she struggled to walk the 5km to a hospital that would treat her. Once she was there, she underwent a scan that confirmed her symptoms.


This one caught my eye. Raises a few questions:
- The roads are empty because of this ban. Which means public transport also is banned?
- After building up all that fine infra, this really sick woman had to walk a long distance during a crisis situation. Is it because civil society does not have the confidence to self-organize and step up to help as in say, India? Or is it because they are too used to govt doing everything and dont want to get into trouble by challenging what the perceive as govt domains?

China Tries Dramatic Reset of Virus Fight to Ease Mounting Anger

The moves came within hours of each other Thursday. First, health authorities revealed that cases in Hubei province, where the disease first emerged, had surged by 45% to almost 50,000 after they included a new group of patients. That raised the global tally to almost 60,000 :shock: , dashing hopes that the epidemic might be easing.

Then, authorities announced the replacement of the two most senior Communist Party officials in Hubei and its hard-hit capital, Wuhan. Shanghai Mayor Ying Yong -- a former top judge who once served under President Xi Jinping -- was named to replace embattled provincial boss, Jiang Chaoliang.


Is it that those two concealed the grave situation well or did not well?

Arun.prabhu
BRFite
Posts: 358
Joined: 28 Aug 2016 19:26

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Arun.prabhu » 13 Feb 2020 19:34

It's now 218 infected out of 713 tested on the Diamond Princess.

https://apnews.com/ff4f6baa1b49f96dc15c236b5b467369

Deans
BRFite
Posts: 1010
Joined: 26 Aug 2004 19:13
Location: Moscow

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Deans » 13 Feb 2020 19:46

hnair wrote:Two western sources:
- After building up all that fine infra, this really sick woman had to walk a long distance during a crisis situation. Is it because civil society does not have the confidence to self-organize and step up to help as in say, India? Or is it because they are too used to govt doing everything and dont want to get into trouble by challenging what the perceive as govt domains?

Is it that those two concealed the grave situation well or did not well?


Its surprising that she had to get to a hospital on her own. I would have assumed that she'd be asked to stay indoors and medical personnel would get to her to test and then (if she has symptoms) move to hospital in an ambulance. If that's not happened even when they are tackling it on a war footing, it suggests that the system is overwhelmed.

Whether or not the 2 sacked officials handled it well or badly is irrelevant. Scapegoats were needed to protect Eleven and they were it.

kit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3698
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 18:16

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby kit » 13 Feb 2020 20:46

hnair wrote:Two western sources:

China accused of under-reporting coronavirus outbreak

Luo Jun, a 45-year-old woman from Wuhan, said she had been suffering from severe viral pneumonia since Saturday. With private cars banned from the roads, she struggled to walk the 5km to a hospital that would treat her. Once she was there, she underwent a scan that confirmed her symptoms.


This one caught my eye. Raises a few questions:
- The roads are empty because of this ban. Which means public transport also is banned?
- After building up all that fine infra, this really sick woman had to walk a long distance during a crisis situation. Is it because civil society does not have the confidence to self-organize and step up to help as in say, India? Or is it because they are too used to govt doing everything and dont want to get into trouble by challenging what the perceive as govt domains?

China Tries Dramatic Reset of Virus Fight to Ease Mounting Anger

The moves came within hours of each other Thursday. First, health authorities revealed that cases in Hubei province, where the disease first emerged, had surged by 45% to almost 50,000 after they included a new group of patients. That raised the global tally to almost 60,000 :shock: , dashing hopes that the epidemic might be easing.

Then, authorities announced the replacement of the two most senior Communist Party officials in Hubei and its hard-hit capital, Wuhan. Shanghai Mayor Ying Yong -- a former top judge who once served under President Xi Jinping -- was named to replace embattled provincial boss, Jiang Chaoliang.


Is it that those two concealed the grave situation well or did not well?


most likely the former , convenient scape goats, they were doing only their "job" anyway.. a very familiar situation to anyone in corporate america

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13876
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 13 Feb 2020 20:56

APji, the cruise ship probably has > 5000 people. So the correct way to interpret the statistics is 218 nCVO/5000. 4%. Zero fatalities so far (2weeks+ after leaving China?), if u believe that the one dead crewmember died of "unrelated causes". Why didn't they say WHAT caused a healthy sailor/attendant to die?
Still worrying of course.
Now this from ABC news: Another 15000 "new" cases.
Is it the expected case of the real magnitude leaking out in small drips, or is there a massive new infection? I think the former.

IOW, "the market" has already "priced in" that many more cases will be reported. Not unusual in major disasters such as earthquakes or tsunamis.
Maybe a huge death toll will eventually be revealed when people go to all those abandoned/barred homes and see people who starved to death if the pneumonia didn't kill them.

The part about banning public transport - and not evacuating people - is well... non-shocking considering that this is the other side of cheen's smiling made-up faces and glitz. Then again think of the public services/ military people who would be asked to go do the evacuation, day in, day out in the face of death.


madhu
BRFite
Posts: 316
Joined: 12 Oct 2005 17:00
Location: India

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby madhu » 13 Feb 2020 21:16

UlanBatori wrote:The part about banning public transport - and not evacuating people - is well... non-shocking considering that this is the other side of cheen's smiling made-up faces and glitz. Then again think of the public services/ military people who would be asked to go do the evacuation, day in, day out in the face of death.

By now Army should have been called for. Why is it that army has not takenover the healthcare? Already civic healthcare have been stretched too much now. I doubt atleast in wuhan health care or even people can take in any more.

Deans
BRFite
Posts: 1010
Joined: 26 Aug 2004 19:13
Location: Moscow

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Deans » 13 Feb 2020 21:33

madhu wrote:
UlanBatori wrote:The part about banning public transport - and not evacuating people - is well... non-shocking considering that this is the other side of cheen's smiling made-up faces and glitz. Then again think of the public services/ military people who would be asked to go do the evacuation, day in, day out in the face of death.

By now Army should have been called for. Why is it that army has not takenover the healthcare? Already civic healthcare have been stretched too much now. I doubt atleast in wuhan health care or even people can take in any more.


Unlike India, where the quality of healthcare the armed forces can provide is significantly higher than the civil authority (a 100 bed army hospital is better than a 100 bed municipal hospital), in China civil hospitals would presumably be better equipped and my not need army assistance. Also, unlikely the PLA has the ability to deal with infectious viruses on a large scale. The PLA might be involved in disposing bodies and enforcing quarantines though.


Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6862
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 13 Feb 2020 22:36

Everyone - health authorities managing the outbreak, many doctors I know in academic field and scientists/mathematicians - is trying to understand the critical factors that portends - aspects which matters and help.

We all know coronavirus has killed more 1300, 60,000+ people are sick - huge portions of central China came to a standstill and rattled millions around - even caused to open a brf thread. Data in the initial stages have been murky but everyday we know more. And I think in last few days we have enough data to understand a few things..

Some background - I am *not* an expert in this field. I can read papers and have friends/students/colleagues in the field. I do understand mathematical tools.

Here are a few things which have not gotten too much analysis in popular news media
, although *I think* are *very* likely to be correct and important. Some experts agree with this. (Does not mean it is will be 100% correct - we will see pretty soon)

- In most cases the outbreak has been mild:.

Virus’s destructiveness has hidden one encouraging aspect of this outbreak - So far, about 80+ percent of the cases (including all 14 in the United States ) have been mild, (symptoms that require little or no medical intervention.) and IMO this proportion is undercount.

(At a presentation on the disease recently officials from CDC noted this fact - none of the 14 US patients required "extensive care".. and all are improving.. similar reports from other cases outside China - US officials set a very low threshold for testing and per one official "If we were not looking so hard we might not have found them")
(Of course, many are considering the possibility that US patients sample - very healthy, rich, those who travel, young etc, may be the reason. 11 of US patients travelled to Wuhan, 2 were spouses who got in US) (Added later: Now there are 15 cases in USA)

But (I think - and those who study viruses seem to agree) - The data on China hides *large* amount of mild cases - only recently large numbers were added but previously only serious cases were counted..(most surveillance were about those who were in hospitals)..When standard statistical tool are applied I think so many mild cases is a real hallmark of this disease and makes it so different from, say SARS.
(Some numbers I have seen puts this, closer to common cold than SARS)
(Recently - WHO's expert Ryan said something like that in a news briefing in Wuhan about virus's aggressiveness)

I think many who study viruses are kind of optimistic. We will see soon enough.

- For the elderly and those with underlying heart disease, diabetes or other conditions, the disease can be quite severe. In six weeks some of the characteristics are becoming clear. most of the victims are in this group - often after pneumonia or other respiratory problems that lead to organ failure.

- Healthy, younger adults seem to do better, and there have been few fatalities among children.
- In coronaviruses that there is a spectrum of illness: (Some people's immune system is responding better than others)
- Smoking (and air pollution may be a factor: for vast majority of deaths in China.

****
Outbreaks like this one tend to have a large number of severe cases, as the sickest people flock to hospitals and come to doctors’ attention. And in Wuhan, where the health-care system is overwhelmed, people cannot find a hospital to test them for the virus, let alone to treat their symptoms. So patients with milder versions may be at home, uncounted, waiting out the epidemic.
(In the latest report from WHO I saw - 45,171 confirmed cases in 25 countries including China, with just 441 of the cases outside China. The WHO classified 8,204 of the Chinese cases as severe, meaning virtually all the rest are mild.)

(Outside China, US data is pretty good. In Singapore 15 out of 50 have been fully recovered and sent home - all except 8 in the hospital are stable or improving etc)

Editend later: Thanks Madhu for the charts - will look at it...
PS - Now there are 15 cases in USA
And the best practical advice to all:

Get sleep, and increase immunity!
Last edited by Amber G. on 13 Feb 2020 22:48, edited 1 time in total.

sooraj
BRFite
Posts: 1231
Joined: 06 May 2011 15:45

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 13 Feb 2020 22:48

Evacuate us, India and Pak students appeal their govts after China opens hospitals in campuses

Vietnam quarantines area with 10,000 residents over coronavirus

India has almost 16,000 under surveillance

Hubei's virus-hit county to add another hospital for COVID-19 patients
Xishui, one of the hardest-hit counties in central China's Hubei Province amid the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, has planned to rebuild a hospital in seven days.

According to the health commission of Huanggang, which administers Xishui, the city reported 2,662 confirmed cases COVID-19 as of Tuesday, including about 300 in Xishui.

The county's virus control and prevention headquarters said it will rebuild the new maternity and childcare hospital, which is under construction, into a temporary designated hospital for COVID-19 patients. An estimated 200 hospital beds will be put into operation within one week.

The rebuilding has begun since Tuesday, with numerous excavators and forklifts as well as nearly 100 workers working around the clock.


Coronavirus: China sends 4,000 more medical military personnel to Wuhan to battle epidemic

White House does not have ‘high confidence’ in China’s coronavirus information, official says

madhu
BRFite
Posts: 316
Joined: 12 Oct 2005 17:00
Location: India

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby madhu » 13 Feb 2020 22:49

Amber G. wrote:
Virus’s destructiveness has hidden one encouraging aspect of this outbreak - So far, about 80+ percent of the cases (including all 14 in the United States ) have been mild, (symptoms that require little or no medical intervention.) and IMO this proportion is undercount.

This is what is puzzeling me from the begining. Why this kind of war footing? I think it could have been handled in a better way.
2% CFR is nothing for the kind of hype that has been built around.

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4076
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 13 Feb 2020 23:03

tandav wrote:All I could think of is how I would have loved to live here instead of Mumbai or any other Indian city (nCov notwithstanding). There is a certain planning, beauty, aesthetics and ergonomics that the Chinese have created that we have to emulate


It is a Far Eastern thing. The cities of Japan, Korea and Taiwan are similar -- only the scale is different in Cheen because their government can run roughshod over rights in acquiring land.

We could have started emulating Japan a long time ago when they took off in the 1950s and '60s and Taiwan and SoKo in the 1970s. But only when Cheen took off did we really start thinking we should make Mumbai match Shanghai.

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4076
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 13 Feb 2020 23:18

madhu wrote:
Amber G. wrote:
Virus’s destructiveness has hidden one encouraging aspect of this outbreak - So far, about 80+ percent of the cases (including all 14 in the United States ) have been mild, (symptoms that require little or no medical intervention.) and IMO this proportion is undercount.

This is what is puzzeling me from the begining. Why this kind of war footing? I think it could have been handled in a better way.
2% CFR is nothing for the kind of hype that has been built around.


Tiannenmen Square could have been handled a better way too. But they overreacted and massacred college students which led to an embargo that lasted years and stifled their economy until the WTO entry.

The same thing is happening again with the same or worse shock to their economy. Authoritarian government can overreact with little hindrance.

That said, I am glad Cheen is a commie authoritarian state in this case. A democratic Cheen wouldn't have been able quarantine the nation. Mild or not, this thing would have spread much further.

The CPC did us all a favor by containing the disease mainly to Cheen itself.

g.sarkar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2234
Joined: 09 Jul 2005 12:22
Location: MERCED, California

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby g.sarkar » 14 Feb 2020 00:04

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/13/worl ... virus.html
Coronavirus Live Updates: China Expands Mass Roundup
A mass roundup of sick or possibly infected people is expanding beyond Wuhan, the city at the center of the coronavirus outbreak, to include other cities in Hubei Province.

A mass roundup in central China is expanded.
Top officials in Beijing on Thursday expanded their mass roundup of sick or possibly infected people beyond Wuhan, the city at the center of the coronavirus outbreak, to include other cities in Hubei Province that have been hit hard by the crisis, according to the state-run CCTV broadcaster.
The orders to begin mass quarantines in Wuhan came down from the government last week to “round up everyone who should be rounded up,” part of a “wartime” campaign to contain the fast-spreading coronavirus outbreak.
Confirmed patients with mild symptoms were put in large quarantine spaces. Suspected cases went to converted hotels and schools to be isolated. Close contacts of confirmed cases and patients with a fever who could have been infected were also put in separate facilities.
But the state-led effort has been plagued by experiences of chaos and disorganization, deepening anxiety and frustration in a city already on edge from a prolonged lockdown.
....
Gautam

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13876
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 14 Feb 2020 00:58

sooraj wrote:Evacuate us, India and Pak students appeal their govts after China opens hospitals in campuses


I thought desi ishtudantz are all evacuated long since? What r these doing there still? Disguised as Pakis?

LakshmanPST
BRFite
Posts: 164
Joined: 05 Apr 2019 18:23

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby LakshmanPST » 14 Feb 2020 01:01

^^^I heard in some Telugu news channel that few of the Indians wanted to stay back & continue studies due to their financial situation... They were given necessary money, food supplies and other stuff...

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4076
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 14 Feb 2020 01:04

UlanBatori wrote:
sooraj wrote:Evacuate us, India and Pak students appeal their govts after China opens hospitals in campuses


I thought desi ishtudantz are all evacuated long since? What r these doing there still? Disguised as Pakis?


LoL. We should make them put on a bindi before allowing them on the plane. The zealots will not be able to abide.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13876
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 14 Feb 2020 01:05

One learns something new every din..NOW v r talking Black Swan!

the country’s Far Eastern border with China has been closed. A high percentage of the world’s sex toys are produced there.
According to Lapin, supplies have so far stood firm as his company doesn’t import many products directly from China. “Most are from America, Europe, and Russia,” he explained. However, the businessman added that many American and European companies produce their goods in China – and this could lead to a scarcity of naughty merchandise. “Over time the situation may become threatening. If coronavirus causes the borders to be closed for a year, then the goods produced in China, including for Europe and the USA, will simply not be there,” he worries.

Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6862
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 14 Feb 2020 01:29

CDC confirms 15th US case
(..The patient arrived in the U.S. on Feb. 7 on a State Department-chartered flight from Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak in China. The passengers remain quarantined at Joint Base San Antonio-Lackland.... is currently isolated and receiving medical care at a designated hospital nearby...)

milindc
BRFite
Posts: 675
Joined: 11 Feb 2006 00:03

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby milindc » 14 Feb 2020 01:49

Anyone involved with fraud detection based on number pattern can tell that Chinese are doing Madrassa Maths on the coronavirus numbers. Yesterday, they decided to actually count the symptomatic patients and increased the number by 15000 instead of the regular 2-3k. However to maintain the 2.1% fatality rate, they bumped up the dead by 152 instead of regular 100+. This again brought the fatality rate to 2.1% ( 3470/60444).

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13876
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 14 Feb 2020 02:43

Probably means that the disease has plateau-ed and maybe falling off. Stock market has positively jumped. "Deaths" will continue to be reported for another 6 months at 2.1%. Otherwise the percentage would have increased. The country that invented all those scams (like "this is the IRS calling" to "your car's warranty has expired..") surely has a plan behind this constant 2.1% policy?

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13876
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 14 Feb 2020 02:51

1st Japanese death: 80-year old woman, not related to cruise ship. Meanwhile another cruise ship arrives in Kampuchea.

Meanwhile, a cruise ship which spent two weeks at sea after being turned away by five countries :eek: :shock: over fears that someone aboard might have the coronavirus finally arrived at a port in Cambodia on Thursday.

The MS Westerdam, carrying 1,455 passengers and 802 crew, docked in Sihanoukville in the evening after anchoring offshore early in the morning to allow Cambodian officials to board the vessel and collect samples from passengers with any signs of ill health or flu-like symptoms. Fluid samples from 20 people were sent by helicopter to Phnom Penh, Cambodia’s capital, for virus tests, Reuters reported.

The ship’s captain, Vincent Smit, initially told passengers in a letter that some could leave Cambodia as early as Friday.


Isn't there some Law Of The Sea that requires nations to provide aid?

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4076
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 14 Feb 2020 03:03

Very interesting video on the chini wet markets!

It was filmed just before panic so you get to see the thing operating normally.

"Worst time of year for this virus. People taking live chicken home with them ..."

"We had three live chicken in our bathroom ... before sacrificing one to the Lunar New Year gods ..."



Actually, the wet markets look cleaner than those in Desh but we don't have the exotic critters.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13876
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 14 Feb 2020 04:07

The stocks that are going to get hit are those that live on chinese tourism :eek: Most nations will simply not allow tourists from cheen for the next few months. Plus the Conference/Sympsium Industry in cheen.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13876
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 14 Feb 2020 04:41


Kakkaji
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3258
Joined: 23 Oct 2002 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Kakkaji » 14 Feb 2020 07:15

chola wrote:Actually, the wet markets look cleaner than those in Desh but we don't have the exotic critters.


Agree. I remember the meat/ fish markets in Kolkata being much dirtier, with flies all around.

SriKumar
BRFite
Posts: 1894
Joined: 27 Feb 2006 07:22
Location: sarvatra

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SriKumar » 14 Feb 2020 09:13

If one assumes that the peak of the infections was around Jan 23rd i.e. the day of Wuhan lockdown, then the week of Feb 6 would be the week with the most deaths. THose who would survive would have gotten better by the end of week 2=Feb 6. Maybe we will see the death toll come down later this week, atleast from Wuhan (Hubei province might be a different story). But when the death rate is perfectly stable at 2.1%, who needs predictive tools and modeling.

Arun.prabhu
BRFite
Posts: 358
Joined: 28 Aug 2016 19:26

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Arun.prabhu » 14 Feb 2020 09:44

Signals on how the virus has affected Chinese daily life and economic output:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china ... ats-really

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/chi ... e-scenario

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13876
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 14 Feb 2020 09:45

So the cheen will keep the rate constant, and will not report "problem solved" until the disease has practically disappeared. At which point no one can sustain the charge of "coverup". Neat damage-control strategy from experts!


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot], Dileep, sooraj and 63 guests