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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 01:07
by yensoy
sudarshan wrote:Look at S. Korea for instance, where they got this thing mostly under control weeks ago. Still, 40% of the cases are declared "active" there, only 60% are declared "recovered." Other countries show miniscule fractions of recovered vs. active. Seems to take weeks and weeks for somebody to be declared "recovered," they just stay on the active pile for ages. I think that's what is showing in that closed case outcome graph.
These statistics are making the Chinese claims of containing the virus more and more unbelievable. If there is going to be a large population of unsymptomatic carriers, or patients who have not been declared as recovered in all these other geographies, the same should be true in China as well. But their official stats are claiming that most of the affected have recovered (or dead), very few remaining active cases.

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 01:17
by V_Raman
hanumadu wrote:
V_Raman wrote:Was there any request to the Tablighi Jamaat folks in Delhi to cancel the event originally?
Are they idiots that they don't understand the situation or law that prohibits congregation?
There were many gatherings in India before the JanataCurfew. We cannot fault the Jamaat gathering unless authorities asked them to not go ahead and they went ahead with it anyways.

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 01:19
by brar_w
nachiket wrote:Problem with vaccines is that in addition to testing their efficacy it is equally important to test for their safety. People given the vaccine need to be observed over a period of time to establish that the vaccine is safe to use on humans and note any side-effects or contraindications etc. That is why it takes so long to bring vaccines to the market after their development. I am not sure how you can avoid this step even in the pandemic. If the vaccine turns out to have dangerous side effects which were not noticed because the testing duration was curtailed, you can cause a bigger disaster than the pandemic if a large percentage of the human population was vaccinated hurriedly.

Public health professionals like Dr. Anthony Fauci etc. have been warning people not to expect a widely available vaccine for at least a year if not more.
Yes with vaccines you have to be careful because it will be administered to healthy people and you don't want to do more damage than what you are trying to prevent. You really don't want to cut corners with something like that. It isn't a last resort drug that you only administer to the sick and can fast track based on compassionate grounds.

What you can do to accelerate things is subsidize a few of the promising vaccines early so that concurrent production and trials can be conducted so that when they are approved you have a very large stockpile and don't need to wait for it to be produced.

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 01:20
by Raveen
V_Raman wrote:
hanumadu wrote:
Are they idiots that they don't understand the situation or law that prohibits congregation?
There were many gatherings in India before the JanataCurfew. We cannot fault the Jamaat gathering unless authorities asked them to not go ahead and they went ahead with it anyways.
There was more than one request - and yes, we can fault anyone who puts public welfare at risk through dumbA$$ decisions.

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 01:23
by saip
Even if we can not fault the tablighi jamaat for the congregation their post congregation behavior is inexcusable. They refuse to be tested nor be quarantined.

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 01:30
by nam
I am genuinely curious to know if modern medical science has not progressed enough to able to rapidly create a safe vaccine against a form of flu virus?

As far I understand, Corona is not a complex virus like HIV. It seems to have a simple mechanism of using protein based cell locking mechanism and then infect the cell.

We have the gene sequence of the virus. Probably know the type of protein present on the virus. Don't we have other virus with similar protein structure?

Given that most of the virus would have similar mechanism of infecting a cell, I am a bit surprised that we humans don't maintain some sort of anti-dote on how to deal with a specific protein key on a virus?

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 01:31
by brar_w
The IHME model, which Trump and his task force said their own model was closest to, has revised the expected US casualties (till Aug 2020) up from 80K to 90+K. The model assumes a 100% stay at home compliance. There are still states in the US which have not instituted stay at home orders.

Image
nam wrote:I am genuinely curious to know if modern medical science has not progressed enough to able to rapidly create a safe vaccine against a form of flu virus?
Once the genetic sequence of the virus was shared by China, the first vaccine was developed in under a month. Within two months from having access to the sequence Phase I trials had begun. I think the questions need to be asked from China as to why they waited till Mid January before releasing the genetic sequence. Surely they could have done this a lot earlier if they begun seeing these cases as far back as Sept/Oct. Many other potential candidates are following close behind. The bottleneck isn't in developing one. It is running trials to determine whether it works and is safe to use on the population at large.
Scientists at NIAID’s Vaccine Research Center (VRC) and Moderna were able to quickly develop mRNA-1273 because of prior studies of related coronaviruses that cause severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). Coronaviruses are spherical and have spikes protruding from their surface, giving the particles a crown-like appearance. The spike binds to human cells, allowing the virus to gain entry. VRC and Moderna scientists already were working on an investigational MERS vaccine targeting the spike, which provided a head start for developing a vaccine candidate to protect against COVID-19. Once the genetic information of SARS-CoV-2 became available, the scientists quickly selected a sequence to express the stabilized spike protein of the virus in the existing mRNA platform.

The Phase 1 trial is led by Lisa A. Jackson, M.D., senior investigator at KPWHRI. Study participants will receive two doses of the vaccine via intramuscular injection in the upper arm approximately 28 days apart. Each participant will be assigned to receive a 25 microgram (mcg), 100 mcg or 250 mcg dose at both vaccinations, with 15 people in each dose cohort. The first four participants will receive one injection with the low dose, and the next four participants will receive the 100 mcg dose. Investigators will review safety data before vaccinating the remaining participants in the 25 and 100 mcg dose groups and before participants receive their second vaccinations. Another safety review will be done before participants are enrolled in the 250 mcg cohort.

Participants will be asked to return to the clinic for follow-up visits between vaccinations and for additional visits across the span of a year after the second shot. Clinicians will monitor participants for common vaccination symptoms, such as soreness at the injection site or fever as well as any other medical issues. A protocol team will meet regularly to review safety data, and a safety monitoring committee will also periodically review trial data and advise NIAID. Participants also will be asked to provide blood samples at specified time points, which investigators will test in the laboratory to detect and measure the immune response to the experimental vaccine.
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-re ... -19-begins

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 01:35
by saip
What do you know? Tablighi Jamaat are not the only idiots in the world. We have them in US of A too. They are unfortunately too close to me for comfort.
71 infected with coronavirus at Sacramento church. Congregation tells county ‘leave us alone’
Sacbee

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 01:39
by Trikaal
DrRatnadip wrote:I would like to share my personal understanding about COVID 19 here.. This is just summary of what most of us already know..
we can group infected individuals in three groups..
Group(A )Infected but asymptomatic or with very mild symptoms which people tend to ignore.. These individuals comprise largest percentage in COVID population.. Doctors label them as ILI (influenza like illness) ..
Group B Infected Patients who show moderate symptoms like slight tightness in chest/ mild breathlessness/ fever..
we can again subdivide group B in two subgroups..
B1 ) These patients respond quickly to suportive symptomatic treatment and more likely to come down to Group A
B2) These patients require more extensive treatment but can be managed without ICU care.. But chances of detoriation are still there..
Group C) These are patients requiring ICU care and can further be categorised in two groups
C1) Pt who respond to treatment and show improvement if current treatment protocols are followed..
C2) These group of patients show rapid detoriation and do not seem to respond to any available therapy.. This is most fulminant form of disease leading to almost certain death.. significant proportion of C2 also have myocardial involvement and generalized bone marrow depression..

Absolute number of patients falling in each one of above category is different in different countries.. Obvious factors involved in this divide are demographic characteristics of population, prevalence of various co morbidities like diabetes/COPD/cardiac ailments, smoking habits and even average BMI of population..

Fortunately in India number of individuals going in Group C2 seems significantly low.. Having young population and early lockdown is definitely advantageous in this regard..
I belive instead of futile testing in all sypmtomatic individuals we should focus our limited resources on early detection and treatement of patients who are more likely to land up in Group C2..
Most of patients in group A and B1 are likely recover and contribute to herd immunity.. We need to develop simple scoring system to identify individuals who are more likely to fall in group A or B1.. So that we can allow gradual withdrawal of lockdown for them.. Remaining can continue social distancing for extended time so our healthcare system is not overwhelmed.. I hope soon we can comeup with effective vaccine to protect individuals with high risk too..
Extended lockdown for all is counterproductive.. Extensive testing is costly and wastage of resources..
While I do agree that extensive testing is costly, only through cluster testing can we identify red zones. We should be testing more to identify locality level red zones and then targeted quarantining those areas, a strategy similar to what SK adopted. Problems like false negatives still exist and can probably be reduced only through multiple testing.

Some countries are reducing cost of testing by conducting combined testing and then finding the positive cases through binary search algorithm.

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 01:40
by anmol
Dr. Stephen Smith on effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine: 'I think this is the beginning of the end of the pandemic'

By Talia Kaplan | Fox News
Published 4 hours ago

Dr. Stephen Smith, founder of The Smith Center for Infectious Diseases and Urban Health, said on “The Ingraham Angle” on Wednesday night that he is optimistic about the use of antimalarial medications and antibiotics to treat COVID-19 patients, calling it “a game-changer.”“I think this is the beginning of the end of the pandemic. I’m very serious,” Smith, an infectious disease specialist, told host Laura Ingraham.

Currently there is no known cure for the coronavirus pandemic ravaging the globe.Smith, who is treating 72 COVID-19 patients, said that he has been treating "everybody with hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin [an antibiotic]. We’ve been doing so for a while.”

He pointed out that not a single COVID-19 patient of his that has been on the hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin regimen for five days or more has had to be intubated.

“The chance of that occurring by chance, according to my sons Leon and Hunter who did some stats for me, are .000-something,” he said, adding that “it’s ridiculously low."


Smith explained that “intubation means actually putting a tube down into your trachea and then you’re placed on the ventilator for respiratory support.” The Food and Drug Administration recently announced an emergency-use authorization for several drugs, including hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine, despite a lack of clear evidence of their effectiveness.A study published earlier this month by French researchers suggested that COVID-19 patients could be treated with antimalarial medication and antibiotics in the battle against the novel coronavirus.

Smith noted on Wednesday that he thinks his data supports the French study.

“Now you actually have an intra-cohort comparison saying that this regimen works,” he told Ingraham.Speaking on “Fox & Friends” on Thursday, Dr. Mehmet Oz brought up an “important randomized study still unpublished from Wuhan, China.”

He said that his team spoke to the medical leadership in China and vetted the study.

“We think it's real,” Dr. Oz said on Thursday.

He then went on to explain what the study, which looked at 62 patients, showed. He noted that half of the patients got the traditional therapy being offered in China and the other half got the traditional therapy plus hydroxychloroquine.

“In terms of symptoms, their temperatures, their fevers broke instead of three days, which is the norm over there on this treatment, they got two days,” Dr. Oz said.

He added that “in terms of coughing, the other big symptom you have, again it takes a little over three days oftentimes for that to go away and that was dropped at two days.”

Dr. Oz then pointed out the part that “really caught my attention.”

“They did CT scans of the chest in all the patients. All the patients had pneumonia when they started. Over the course of the five-day treatment with the hydroxychloroquine and 55 percent of the control population where they just got the normal therapy there was resolve and resolution of the pneumonia in 81 percent of the patients on the hydroxychloroquine, there was improvement in the lung's images,” he pointed out.

Dr. Oz noted that these results are “statistically significant.”

He went on to say that even though the study only monitored a small group of people, “they still got the measures that we like to see.”

Dr. Oz acknowledged that a bigger clinical trial is still needed, adding that the Chinese study “is an early effort to try to show a lot of people whether this is the right way or the wrong way to go.”

“I should point out in the 31 patients that were the control group, four patients had bad outcomes, they got significantly worse. None of the patients in the hydroxychloroquine group got significantly worse,” he said.

“So the Chinese are using this as part of their routine treatment. They have a national protocol for measuring COVID-19. I think we ought to consider something like that in this country, but at least physicians and patients should be able to discuss this a bit more comfortably until we have the bigger randomized data from studies done in this country.”A new study in the United States, which will be conducted by the University of Washington in conjunction with New York University, looks to enroll 2,000 people who are "close contacts of persons with confirmed or pending COVID-19 diagnoses," according to a statement announcing the study.New York State recently said it would start coronavirus drug trials in an attempt to control the pandemic's impact on the state, according to Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who announced the state had acquired 70,000 doses of hydroxychloroquine, 10,000 doses of the antibiotic Zithromax and 750,000 doses of chloroquine, another antimalarial drug.Recently President Trump has spoken out about the potential promise of hydroxychloroquine to help treat COVID-19 patients.A New York Times article published on Wednesday also referenced the Chinese study Dr. Oz had referred to on “Fox and Friends.”The article, which cited doctors in China, titled “Malaria Drug Helps Virus Patients Improve, in Small Study,” highlighted the fact that hydroxychloroquine “helped to speed the recovery of a small number of patients who were mildly ill from the coronavirus.”

“Cough, fever and pneumonia went away faster, and the disease seemed less likely to turn severe in people who received hydroxychloroquine than in a comparison group not given the drug,” the article said. “The authors of the report said that the medication was promising, but that more research was needed to clarify how it might work in treating coronavirus disease and to determine the best way to use it.”

Speaking on “Fox & Friends” on Thursday Dr. Oz also noted another observation the Chinese made in their study, saying they noticed that people who were already taking hydroxychloroquine, like the people who suffer from the autoimmune disease lupus and are prescribed the drug for that condition, didn’t contract COVID-19.

“So we ought to think about looking at it for doctors and nurses and loved ones of people who get ill,” Dr. Oz said on Thursday.

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 01:55
by Raveen
saip wrote:Even if we can not fault the tablighi jamaat for the congregation their post congregation behavior is inexcusable. They refuse to be tested nor be quarantined.
and instead have dispersed all over the country and are in hiding refusing to come out...including the numerous foreigners that are being hidden.

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 02:40
by nam
Deleted

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 02:42
by disha
SRoy wrote:^^

They will do as they please. Tum kya ukhad loge?
We are just monitoring the jamaati momeen infestation and how it is spreading and where they can be red zoned and how it can be red zoned. It is nothing but more information gathering and some dissemination.

BTW, Vir Sanghvi who happens to be an established mediapimp has called for filing 'accessory to murder' charges on the momeen jamaatis.

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 03:03
by vimal
nam wrote:I got asked a very innocent question about this virus. The Chinese (or for that matter some of the ASEAN countries) have a practice of wet market and have been eating bats for a long time.

If that is the case why did the virus appear now? It is obviously not a new virus and would have infected the people in those region way back. Why did it start infecting people now?

Any theories?
For the same reason HIV virus which existed in Chimps did not infect humans before 20th century.
It's not a "new" virus, it just mutated as it got passed from host to host, in this case multiple animal species. Also, everyone who gets the virus does fall ill and die. In fact it's the asymptomatic people who act the super spreader which makes this virus so dangerous. It's almost like it was designed to spread by not infecting some while not making them sick while not infecting others.

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 03:13
by KLNMurthy
V_Raman wrote:
hanumadu wrote:
Are they idiots that they don't understand the situation or law that prohibits congregation?
There were many gatherings in India before the JanataCurfew. We cannot fault the Jamaat gathering unless authorities asked them to not go ahead and they went ahead with it anyways.
Please read the rediff report by Sheela Bhatt in a different thread, and the reports on the attitude and conduct of the TJs.

There was no chance that they would have obeyed the authorities under any circumstances.

These people are a serious problem in this battle.

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 03:20
by disha
nam wrote:I got asked a very innocent question about this virus. The Chinese (or for that matter some of the ASEAN countries) have a practice of wet market and have been eating bats for a long time.

If that is the case why did the virus appear now? It is obviously not a new virus and would have infected the people in those region way back. Why did it start infecting people now?

Any theories?
CoronaVirus is not now or new. Virus has been going around since last 3 decades. It is just that it has morphed into a virulent form! Current virus is similar to the SARS virus that came out in 2003. How similar? 89% similar.

And second, this one did not come from bats., It was recirculating in Pigs and jumped from Pigs to Humans. I have a theory, it jumped from humans to pigs and back.

Given the above I will leave some URLs as hints for now:

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspect ... na-pig-die
https://www.healio.com/infectious-disea ... -to-humans
https://www.sciencenews.org/blog/scienc ... pigs-china
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/24/7/17-2077_article

In a nutshell, this was coming at us since the last 3-4 decades. Starting from mad cow. All the factory farming and the need for "protein" has led us to this.

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 05:31
by Kaivalya
Please see textbook excerpt below. Belatedly Shenzen just banned killing of cats and dogs...but bats , raccoons etc are still on.

This disaster has been in the works for a while now

https://i.redd.it/whe13ywz6jn41.jpg

A day ago :

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN21K0EW

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 05:41
by suryag
I am getting very worried, the number increases in India are following the US trend thanks to the Tableeghis, the next few days will tell us, btw I get different dates for this shitty conference from different sources, one of them even says it went on until Mar30th ? whats the truth ? Asking because, it gives us an idea on how long to prolong this lockdown

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 06:13
by Kaivalya
suryag wrote:I am getting very worried, the number increases in India are following the US trend thanks to the Tableeghis, the next few days will tell us, btw I get different dates for this shitty conference from different sources, one of them even says it went on until Mar30th ? whats the truth ? Asking because, it gives us an idea on how long to prolong this lockdown

Timeline from India today

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/t ... 2020-03-31

Here are some things to note

1. US still does not have a complete lockdown. Many states made their own decision after 100k confirmed cases. Even now Sweden ( no lockdown) vs Norway/Denmark (full lockdown) is debated. If you compare people dead it is clear in my opinion. In any case, it does not offer any insight when we consider indian urban/rural densities

2. A large portion of the tableeghi jamat community has tied their politics to coronavirus and have turned criminal by hiding, spitting and beating health care workers and doctors. There are churches in the US who have operated and have been arrested. But criminal TJ behaviour is no comparison. Close to 600 of the total confirmed cases have been directly linked.

3. The lockdown trend is lower without TJ nonsense. Hopefully it will prove out in the next few days

4. Indian leadership has done very sensible things in my opinion including setting expectations that the lockdown will be worsened in hotspots and will be relieved in the absence of cases in a staggered way

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 06:15
by Cain Marko
anmol wrote:
Dr. Stephen Smith on effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine: 'I think this is the beginning of the end of the pandemic'

A study published earlier this month by French researchers suggested that COVID-19 patients could be treated with antimalarial medication and antibiotics in the battle against the novel coronavirus.

Smith noted on Wednesday that he thinks his data supports the French study.

“Now you actually have an intra-cohort comparison saying that this regimen works,” he told Ingraham.Speaking on “Fox & Friends” on Thursday, Dr. Mehmet Oz brought up an “important randomized study still unpublished from Wuhan, China.”

He said that his team spoke to the medical leadership in China and vetted the study.
What i am simply not getting is why Fauci does not consider these to be relevant or encouraging. Sure they are not randomized (at least the French one was not) but nevertheless...

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 06:21
by Gerard

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 06:31
by brar_w
Cain Marko wrote: What i am simply not getting is why Fauci does not consider these to be relevant or encouraging. Sure they are not randomized (at least the French one was not) but nevertheless...
No such thing at all. All he is saying that we will treat this as promising anecdotal evidence and other data and regulatory and advisory institutions will act upon that and direct usage accordingly (it has even been fast tracked and approved in cases) but definitive efficacy can only be determined via a RCT. And this, along with numerous other therapies need to be a part of RCT's so that we know what works, what doesn't and what works best (if multiple things show promise) because he, like many ID experts, thinks that until a vaccine is developed this thing will come back cyclically. It is important that they use that time wisely and learn as much as possible. That is all that he is saying.

It is not his job or role to tell what to or what not to use. He does not head the FDA. The FDA has already issued an EUA on these drugs and they are available.

Fauci heads the NIAID, an organization, which researches treatments and prevention of infectious diseases. A part of his job is to advise what the best course of how to manage this virus and that would be to advocate RCT's for the various promising therapies out there and use that information to save lives as thing things gets bigger and comes back int he Fall/Winter time-frame. The organization he heads is also funding the clinical trials of the vaccine for Covid-19. When there are multiple paths to take towards investing in therapies that show promise, you need to be able to learn very quickly what works and what doesn't and the various nuances in between. It is his job to make the best use of the little time everyone has and help figure these things out. The NIH is already doing RCT's on COVID-19. Expect more to be added and accelerated given the current situation. There are other RCT's that are happening right now elsewhere in the world on these very drugs. As everyone waits for those to show results, the regulators have allowed the medications to be used for patients in accordance with the guidelines that they deserve based on evidence available so far.

https://www.niaid.nih.gov/news-events/n ... -19-begins

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 07:02
by sanjaykumar
What i am simply not getting is why Fauci does not consider these to be relevant or encouraging. Sure they are not randomized (at least the French one was not) but nevertheless...



The Smith Center for Infectious Diseases and Urban Health; please look it up. It is a three physician setup with this fellow and two Phillipino MDs, one of whom is a psychiatrist.

So he has found a game changer, which seems to have been missed by the workers at CUNY, Columbia etc. You can draw your own conclusions.

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 07:08
by sanjaykumar

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 07:53
by vijayk
Spoke to a friend in AZ who is recovering pretty bad case of COVID-19. He suffered for 10 days. He still can't smell but most of his fever/headaches gone.

He took Xofluza, HydroChloroquine, Azithromycin. Feels better.

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 08:02
by Aarvee
To the clinicians/biologists, Any thoughts on this?

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/neimann- ... n-vedururu

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 08:11
by Gerard


Aso Taro blasted the World Health Organization for bowing to China and excluding Taiwan. Speaking to Japanese lawmakers, the deputy prime minister said the WHO should change its name to the "CHO," or China Health Organization. He said being excluded from the global health body, Taiwan was driven to become a world leader in combating the coronavirus.The coronavirus pandemic has led to the postponement of the 2020 Olympics in Japan. Speaking in Japan’s parliament, the country’s deputy prime minister leveled fresh criticism against China.

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 08:59
by ricky_v
Image
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press ... -responses
The first group of projects, amounting to $1.9 billion, will assist 25 countries, and new operations are moving forward in over 40 countries using the fast-track process. In addition, the World Bank is working worldwide to redeploy resources in existing World Bank financed projects worth up to $1.7 billion, including through restructuring, use of emergency components of existing projects (CERCs) and triggering of CAT DDOs and spanning every region.

The World Bank Group is prepared to deploy up to $160 billion over the next 15 months to support COVID-19 measures that will help countries respond to immediate health consequences of the pandemic and bolster economic recovery. The broader economic program will aim to shorten the time to recovery, create conditions for growth, support small and medium enterprises, and help protect the poor and vulnerable.
In India, $1 billion emergency financing will support better screening, contact tracing, and laboratory diagnostics; procure personal protective equipment; and set up new isolation wards.
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press ... -for-india
The project will also enhance the resilience of India’s health system to provide core public health prevention and patient care to better manage COVID-19 and future disease outbreaks. It will help strengthen India’s Integrated Disease Surveillance Program, revamp infectious disease hospitals, district, civil, general and medical college hospitals, and build a network of high containment Biosafety Level 3 laboratories.

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 09:00
by ramana
sanjaykumar wrote:What i am simply not getting is why Fauci does not consider these to be relevant or encouraging. Sure they are not randomized (at least the French one was not) but nevertheless...



The Smith Center for Infectious Diseases and Urban Health; please look it up. It is a three physician setup with this fellow and two Phillipino MDs, one of whom is a psychiatrist.

So he has found a game changer, which seems to have been missed by the workers at CUNY, Columbia etc. You can draw your own conclusions.

Please post a link and synopsis for us.

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 09:10
by Aarvee
Coronavirus infected man spits in stranger’s face then drops dead on train
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/healt ... 1696f0333e

Coronavirus Australia: 'Beyond belief' police officers spat on while enforcing social distancing
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/healt ... 865d7f2b2b

Sydney, Bangkok, Delhi! The only common thing among them......

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 09:29
by Cain Marko
sanjaykumar wrote:What i am simply not getting is why Fauci does not consider these to be relevant or encouraging. Sure they are not randomized (at least the French one was not) but nevertheless...



The Smith Center for Infectious Diseases and Urban Health; please look it up. It is a three physician setup with this fellow and two Phillipino MDs, one of whom is a psychiatrist.

So he has found a game changer, which seems to have been missed by the workers at CUNY, Columbia etc. You can draw your own conclusions.
There are now 3 studies with decent methodology although. Smith's is not the only one. Have CUNY etal conducted studies that show no significant associations?

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 09:36
by Cain Marko
brar_w wrote:
Cain Marko wrote: What i am simply not getting is why Fauci does not consider these to be relevant or encouraging. Sure they are not randomized (at least the French one was not) but nevertheless...
No such thing at all. All he is saying that we will treat this as promising anecdotal evidence and other data and regulatory and advisory institutions will act upon that and direct usage accordingly (it has even been fast tracked and approved in cases) but definitive efficacy can only be determined via a RCT. And this, along with numerous other therapies need to be a part of RCT's so that we know what works, what doesn't and what works best (if multiple things show promise) because he, like many ID experts, thinks that until a vaccine is developed this thing will come back cyclically. It is important that they use that time wisely and learn as much as possible. That is all that he is saying.
Let's hope so. I believe his statements were in reference to the initial French study. But now there are others. And the Chinese one in particular seems quite rigorous.

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 09:58
by brar_w
Cain Marko wrote:But now there are others. And the Chinese one in particular seems quite rigorous.
It doesn't matter. The FDA has already granted permission to use these drugs at the appropriate levels that they deserve based on what is known so far. They are being used on the front lines as we speak. Once RCTs are done (there are ones that are currently ongoing) more will be known and based on that evidence further guidelines will be issued. This is exactly what he was saying. Treat it with the level of importance that it deserves based on knowledge and evidence that we have. Nothing more and nothing less. Then follow an evidence based course not only for this therapy but also several others that might be promising. His organization, and others around the world are doing just that. The medical community, the FDA, NIH and other similarly tasked organizations around the world are acting on all of these things as is required.

The reason this even became an issue is because politicians who know nothing about this decided to make this a talking point when they should let the experts direct these things. As it turns out the FDA, the NIH and other international bodies were already acting to grant permissions commensurate with what we know so far, and to develop more knowledge to further advise the doctors on the front lines. This virus isn't going away anytime soon. As it slows its carnage in Europe things in the US are likely to get really bad and once the US stabilizes other hot spots may well emerge. And all this could repeat again next season. Researchers and ID specialists have a very small window of maybe just a few months to gather as much knowledge on it as they can (what therapies work) so that when it comes back..we don't see this level of destruction.

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 10:06
by sanjaykumar
https://www.smithcenternj.org/

The French study is of very poor quality. They used small numbers, they used a surrogate marker ie RNA load not a clinical marker. There was poor reporting of clinical status of patients including even their need for supplemental O2. One patient ended up in ICU, that patient was on hydroxychloroquine.

I have not come across the Chinese study. Perhaps they would not have had ~40,000 deaths if indeed the two drug combination was effective.

One can be sure the Italians and Spaniards have tried it as a matter of physician judgement. There is nothing but silence from them and they have been losing about 1000 people a day.

A physician cannot take away hope but equally one should not be offering false hoppe.


It is time to perform massive drug screening of already approved medications, imipramine, chloroquine congeners, antibiotics, angiotensin receptor blockers for in vitro tests to assay for viral inhibition. This should be followed by combination studies to look for any additive or synergistic effects. These would be repurposed drugs and can move into clinical practice very quickly.


There are several vaccine trials gearing up.

Keep the vulnerable, the elderly, diabetic, obese sequestered. Get the antibody test and 'passport' done. Demonstrate recovered patients are immune. Get them into the workforce. Develop the passive immunisation approach as viable. Do plasmapheresis if there are unacceptable immune reactions (serum sickness), work on anti anti idiotypic antibodies (humanised monoclonal). Develop competitive inhibitors to the ACE Type 2 binding interaction. This will require hydrolytic enzyme(peptidase) inhibition and peptide modification or inhibitors to any specific peptidase that is found to degrade the competitive oligo peptide. May need synthetic molecules to mimic the three dimensional structure of the binding site if a simple oligopeptide is inadequate. Do a large study on the drugs patients were on when they developed the infection. Determine if statins, ARBs etc have any survival advantage.

There are no shortcuts, biologists are at work.

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 10:23
by pgbhat

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 10:38
by Arun.prabhu
Analysis of ncovid-19 mortality and other things...
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 10:41
by Arun.prabhu
from Diamond Princess: 3600 passengers and crew, 710 infected, 410 asymptomatic.

And from here:
https://www.repubblica.it/salute/medici ... 251474302/

English translation:

https://translate.google.com/translate? ... refresh_ce

The Italian study claims between 50-75% of infected are asymptomatic.

niran wrote:
Arun.prabhu wrote:The focus on the tests is pretty hard to understand when up to 60% of the infected show no symptoms and do not qualify for the tests.
where does this 60% asymptomatic comes from?

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 10:59
by pgbhat
Arun.prabhu wrote:Analysis of ncovid-19 mortality and other things...
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/
March 22, 2020 (I)
Regarding the situation in Italy: Most major media falsely report that Italy has up to 800 deaths per day from the coronavirus. In reality, the president of the Italian Civil Protection Service stresses that these are deaths „with the coronavirus and not from the coronavirus“ (minute 03:30 of the press conference). In other words, these persons died while also testing positive.
Shanghai Statistics?
Why would you word it like this? Are they saying they would have died anyways with/without Coronavirus at the same time?

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 11:09
by sajo
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday appealed to everyone to voluntarily adopt a blackout at 9 pm on Sunday and light a lamp,


I think he is gauging for compliance fatigue. The leftrolls are out in full force. Some even predict that like Janata Curfew was a precursor to a full lockdown, this is a precursor to a total shutdown including power, supplies etc.

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Posted: 03 Apr 2020 11:20
by shaun