Vivek Kumar wrote:I live in NYC. As of April 16, 1,397 of the 2,535 people tested had a positive result in my ZIP code.
I go for long walks in the evenings on almost deserted streets. All but a few grocery stores and pharmacies are now closed in my area. All stores and pharmacies are strictly enforcing social distancing. Almost al the lines outside fast food joints are of Uber Eats drivers picking up deliveries. Otherwise not much happening in the name of economic activity.
Hang in there sir, I know it sounds scary. Please be careful walking alone long distance on deserted streets, muggers and robbers are not going to bother about silly things like COVID.
Your post contains lots of detail, it's possible to piece together a mathematical picture just from those details. Just from naive analysis, some semi-educated guesses (of course, the truth is nobody really knows what's going on):
* About 3.5% of your ZIP code has been sampled, that's a hefty sample size, statistically speaking
* The infection rate among those samples is ~55% - close to herd immunity range already
* Based on your figures of population density, number of blocks (you said 4-5 blocks in your neighborhood), considering average size blocks in Manhattan, with some hopefully reasonable assumptions:
------ The mortality rate so far (could increase of course, and of course you might not be aware of all deaths in your neighborhood) seems to be 0.6% of those infected, or about 0.3% of the full population
Your post did scare me, but it seems there is some hope. We will have to wait for full antibody testing, it's currently going on in LA, need to wait and see what the results are. In a town in northern Italy (Robbia), antibody testing has revealed that >22% of the population has already been infected (after sampling nearly 1/6th of the town's population, which again, is a hefty sample). In a small town (Gangelt) in Germany, it was about 15%. My guess is (hope to be right, but of course I have no way of knowing) that the virus has already rampaged through NYC, and done maybe 50% of the full scale of damage that it is capable of.