Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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Ashokk
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ashokk » 10 May 2020 22:50

National Institute of Virology develops 1st indigenous Elisa test kit for Covid-19: Harsh Vardhan
NEW DELHI: The National Institute of Virology in Pune has successfully developed the first indigenous antibody detection kit for Covid-19 that will play a critical role in surveillance for coronavirus infection, Union Health Minister Harsh Vardhan said on Sunday.
The test kit has the advantage of testing 90 samples together in a single run of 2.5 hours, so that healthcare professionals can proceed quickly with necessary next steps, Vardhan said.

This kit was validated at two sites in Mumbai and has high sensitivity and accuracy, Vardhan said.
The ELISA-based testing is easily possible even at district level, he said.
Developed in a month's time, the testing kit would help to study the presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in the Indian population.
It is cost-effective, sensitive, rapid, and a large number of samples can be tested at any level of clinical setting, public health centers and hospitals.
The Indian Council of Medical Research-National Institute of Virology, Pune, technology has been transferred to Zydus Cadila for mass-scale production.
The Drug Controller General has granted commercial production and marketing permission to Zydus, Vardhan said.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 10 May 2020 22:53

Zynda wrote:
syam wrote:Many people think COVID-19 kills 1% of patients, and the rest get away with some flulike symptoms. But the story gets more complicated. Many people will be left with chronic kidney and heart problems. Even their neural system is disrupted. There will be hundreds of thousands of people worldwide, possibly more, who will need treatments such as renal dialysis for the rest of their lives. The more we learn about the coronavirus, the more questions arise. We are learning while we are sailing. That’s why I get so annoyed by the many commentators on the sidelines who, without much insight, criticize the scientists and policymakers trying hard to get the epidemic under control. That’s very unfair.
link


From the above article...pretty scary if true. Docs any correlation you guys are observing in recovered patients? I wonder why the above article is not getting much MSM attention. Possibly because the article doesn't provide any statistics to back up the claims.

A couple of days ago, our Health Minister said "we need to learn to live with the virus"...possibly saying that it will take time before we can get it to control or beating Covid and economy can't wait...


Nothing much to worry regarding long term morbidity in recovered patients..

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chetak » 11 May 2020 00:31

if the hans own the judge and jury, then surely, there will be no executioner.


WION@WIONews
China says it is open for a review, but wants it to be conducted under the leadership of WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus



Image

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby anmol » 11 May 2020 10:08

SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Testing: Status Update:
A total of 1673688 samples have been tested as on 11 May 2020, 9 AM IST.


Code: Select all

11/5 - 1673688 [ 64651 tested, 4296 positive (6.64%) ]
10/5 - 1609037 [ 85824 tested, 2951 positive (3.44%) ]
09/5 - 1523213 [ 85425 tested, 3339 positive (3.91%) ]
08/5 - 1437788 [ 80375 tested, 3344 positive (4.16%) ]
07/5 - 1357413 [ 80632 tested, 3602 positive (4.47%) ]
06/5 - 1276781 [ 84835 tested, 2971 positive (3.50%) ]
05/5 - 1191946 [ 84713 tested, 3656 positive (4.31%) ]
04/5 - 1107233 [ 60783 tested, 2952 positive (4.85%) ]
03/5 - 1046450 [ 70087 tested, 2564 positive (3.65%) ]
02/5 - 976363  [ 73709 tested, 2396 positive (3.25%) ]
01/5 - 902654  [ 72453 tested, 1801 positive (2.48%) ]
30/4 - 830201  [ 59437 tested, 1705 positive (2.86%) ]
29/4 - 770764  [ 54031 tested, 1902 positive (3.52%) ]
28/4 - 716733  [ 50914 tested, 1568 positive (3.07%) ]
27/4 - 665819  [ 40510 tested, 1607 positive (3.96%) ]
26/4 - 625309  [ 45352 tested, 1835 positive (4.04%) ]
25/4 - 579957  [ 38168 tested, 1408 positive (3.68%) ]
24/4 - 541789  [ 41247 tested, 1667 positive (4.04%) ]

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 11 May 2020 19:43

DrRatnadip wrote:
Zynda wrote:
From the above article...pretty scary if true. Docs any correlation you guys are observing in recovered patients? I wonder why the above article is not getting much MSM attention. Possibly because the article doesn't provide any statistics to back up the claims.

A couple of days ago, our Health Minister said "we need to learn to live with the virus"...possibly saying that it will take time before we can get it to control or beating Covid and economy can't wait...


Nothing much to worry regarding long term morbidity in recovered patients..

Dr., thanks for your inputs. This is indeed a relief.

Please do keep on feeding us with Covid related developments, especially since now it is quite clear that we will have to learn to live with this disease.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nvishal » 11 May 2020 21:31

The Americans have estimated that the crisis will last at least 2 years, essentially estimating the period it will take for a vaccine to arrive. Basically, asymptomatic cases will pass the virus back and forth and it will circulate within society unnoticed with occasional casualties.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Mort Walker » 11 May 2020 22:28

US total cases and new deaths have dropped dramatically. It seems to be too good to be true. I was expecting a drop off, but not this fast.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 11 May 2020 23:25

Zynda wrote:
DrRatnadip wrote:
Nothing much to worry regarding long term morbidity in recovered patients..

Dr., thanks for your inputs. This is indeed a relief.

Please do keep on feeding us with Covid related developments, especially since now it is quite clear that we will have to learn to live with this disease.


I have few personal observations regarding covid in last wk..
- Recovery rate in severely affected pts has increased significantly.. many bad pts are improving..
- Random trauma pts are turning covid positive..This most likely indicates much widespread spread of virus than we know..
- Many media articles especially in western media are trying to prove that covid is somehow very different than previously known diseases.. This is not the case.. It is not much different than other respiratory viruses.. We deal with much deadlier pathogens daily.. But thankfully they dont spread as easily..
- If a virgin area detects covid pt then local govt bodies are declaring stricter lockdown over very large area..This is counterproductive..
-Talked with few doctors working in dedicated Covid hospitals.. nobody believes in doomsday scenario.. We are not going to face widespread mortality .. We will be out of this pandemic with few bruises.. We just have to deal with isolated outbreaks in foreseeable future..

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Suraj » 11 May 2020 23:39

DrRatnadip wrote:- Many media articles especially in western media are trying to prove that covid is somehow very different than previously known diseases.. This is not the case.. It is not much different than other respiratory viruses.. We deal with much deadlier pathogens daily.. But thankfully they dont spread as easily..

Thank you for your sterling contributions to this thread. Could you please elaborate further ? How do you quantify deadlier, and how is the rate of spread here different ? If you could offer other examples by way of comparison, it would be much more helpful to those not as familiar with the epidemiological field.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vera_k » 11 May 2020 23:45

Mort Walker wrote:US total cases and new deaths have dropped dramatically. It seems to be too good to be true. I was expecting a drop off, but not this fast.


Wall Street earnings indicate an uptick in hygiene practices in the USA. Procter and Gamble CFO estimates this is a permanent shift in hygiene practices. IMO, this plus the mainstreaming of fake meat will control health costs.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sanjaykumar » 12 May 2020 00:32

DrRatnadip wrote:
Zynda wrote:Dr., thanks for your inputs. This is indeed a relief.

Please do keep on feeding us with Covid related developments, especially since now it is quite clear that we will have to learn to live with this disease.


I have few personal observations regarding covid in last wk..
- Recovery rate in severely affected pts has increased significantly.. many bad pts are improving..
- Random trauma pts are turning covid positive..This most likely indicates much widespread spread of virus than we know..
- Many media articles especially in western media are trying to prove that covid is somehow very different than previously known diseases.. This is not the case.. It is not much different than other respiratory viruses.. We deal with much deadlier pathogens daily.. But thankfully they dont spread as easily..
- If a virgin area detects covid pt then local govt bodies are declaring stricter lockdown over very large area..This is counterproductive..
-Talked with few doctors working in dedicated Covid hospitals.. nobody believes in doomsday scenario.. We are not going to face widespread mortality .. We will be out of this pandemic with few bruises.. We just have to deal with isolated outbreaks in foreseeable future..




This is congruent with the only statistic I am interested in, total mortality (not even case fatality ratio).

1 The western press did go out sniffing for corpses in India and were honest enough to report an unexpected lack of cases.
2 Since then there has been a dearth of reports on the impending catastrophe in India. Certainly it makes their own countries look incompetent or worse.
3 This however is not the time to get smug-keep the guard up. It was obvious however that India did the right thing when it prohibited inbound flights.
4 There is an account to settle with China-it protested the Indian decision to ban incoming flights from China, knowing full well that there was human transmission. Despicable.
5 There may be physiologic differences between (superior :mrgreen: ) Indians and the rest of the world. Perhaps the virus doesn't like the taste of Indians.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 12 May 2020 00:50

Deleted a self pat in the back post.
Last edited by ramana on 12 May 2020 01:21, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Edited by ramana.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby yensoy » 12 May 2020 01:25

Suraj wrote:
DrRatnadip wrote:- Many media articles especially in western media are trying to prove that covid is somehow very different than previously known diseases.. This is not the case.. It is not much different than other respiratory viruses.. We deal with much deadlier pathogens daily.. But thankfully they dont spread as easily..

Thank you for your sterling contributions to this thread.

Ditto, Dr your observations are amazingly insightful. Yes it looks like this virus is a lot more prevalent than believed earlier, and at least as far as I can tell in TN the government appears to not be too worried anymore with the local variant of the virus. People aren't talking about ventilators or ICU rooms, even quarantine has degraded to home quarantine for asymptomatics. The question is how do we make an orderly exit from the lockdown while enforcing the hygiene and social distancing practices on our population at large; and how do we help the especially vulnerable avoid or recover from the illness.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby hanumadu » 12 May 2020 02:05

Mort Walker wrote:US total cases and new deaths have dropped dramatically. It seems to be too good to be true. I was expecting a drop off, but not this fast.


Since when? For the past few days, new cases have been around 27000/day and deaths have been between 1700-2700/day. I don't see a significant drop. source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 12 May 2020 05:08

DrRatnadip wrote:...


Thank you doc, just curious, this seems somewhat different from what you were saying before? Did doctors also decide against the use of invasive ventilation?

Mort ji, the decline in US cases and deaths was visible from mid April. Then the criterion for counting deaths (maybe also cases) changed in NY state (maybe also the whole of the US) on April 14th. So on April 15th, there was a huge outlier on the deaths plot. After that, there was still a declining trend, but it seems there was also a lag between actual case/ death date and the reporting date. Because of that, the deaths graph followed a saw-tooth pattern, with sudden surges on certain days. The pattern does not seem to be because of new hot-spots, the timescale of each saw-tooth is like 6 to 8 days (far too small to be because of a new hot-spot), and the news also didn't indicate new hot-spots. So the actual decline in deaths was hidden since mid April, until now. The graph of daily deaths shows this pretty clearly. But since then, the outliers and additional deaths due to the new criterion would have been redistributed to the appropriate dates, so the current official graph would look different from a graph, which is obtained from daily numbers as and when they unfolded. If that's not clear, I can post the actual graph I have, from data gleaned on a day-by-day basis from worldometer, this would show the action "as it unfolded" so to speak, before any redistribution.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Mort Walker » 12 May 2020 06:29

sudarshan wrote:
Mort ji, the decline in US cases and deaths was visible from mid April. Then the criterion for counting deaths (maybe also cases) changed in NY state (maybe also the whole of the US) on April 14th. So on April 15th, there was a huge outlier on the deaths plot. After that, there was still a declining trend, but it seems there was also a lag between actual case/ death date and the reporting date. Because of that, the deaths graph followed a saw-tooth pattern, with sudden surges on certain days. The pattern does not seem to be because of new hot-spots, the timescale of each saw-tooth is like 6 to 8 days (far too small to be because of a new hot-spot), and the news also didn't indicate new hot-spots. So the actual decline in deaths was hidden since mid April, until now. The graph of daily deaths shows this pretty clearly. But since then, the outliers and additional deaths due to the new criterion would have been redistributed to the appropriate dates, so the current official graph would look different from a graph, which is obtained from daily numbers as and when they unfolded. If that's not clear, I can post the actual graph I have, from data gleaned on a day-by-day basis from worldometer, this would show the action "as it unfolded" so to speak, before any redistribution.


Thanks for the info. Yes, there was a downward trend, but from always over 1100 deaths/day declined to under 750 became somewhat puzzling. According Worldometer +1008 deaths on 11 May 2020. Again news is coming out that COVID-19 deaths in the US have been undercounted, so we may see a bump up again. As we've seen in other places when lockdowns are lifted there is an increase of cases and in the US some 45/50 states have relaxed shutdown orders. The pattern is downward and perhaps as more sunlight comes out, the UV helps in disinfecting outdoor surfaces and places where the virus can't survive as long.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 12 May 2020 08:20

sudarshan wrote:
DrRatnadip wrote:...


Thank you doc, just curious, this seems somewhat different from what you were saying before? Did doctors also decide against the use of invasive ventilation?

Mort ji, the decline in US cases and deaths was visible from mid April. Then the criterion for counting deaths (maybe also cases) changed in NY state (maybe also the whole of the US) on April 14th. So on April 15th, there was a huge outlier on the deaths plot. After that, there was still a declining trend, but it seems there was also a lag between actual case/ death date and the reporting date. Because of that, the deaths graph followed a saw-tooth pattern, with sudden surges on certain days. The pattern does not seem to be because of new hot-spots, the timescale of each saw-tooth is like 6 to 8 days (far too small to be because of a new hot-spot), and the news also didn't indicate new hot-spots. So the actual decline in deaths was hidden since mid April, until now. The graph of daily deaths shows this pretty clearly. But since then, the outliers and additional deaths due to the new criterion would have been redistributed to the appropriate dates, so the current official graph would look different from a graph, which is obtained from daily numbers as and when they unfolded. If that's not clear, I can post the actual graph I have, from data gleaned on a day-by-day basis from worldometer, this would show the action "as it unfolded" so to speak, before any redistribution.

Any thoughts on what the new criterion was? In your view was it justified to use this new criterion?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 12 May 2020 08:56

Cain Marko wrote:Any thoughts on what the new criterion was? In your view was it justified to use this new criterion?


I believe earlier they were counting only deaths in hospitals. Then the gov. of NY made a statement that deaths were being under-counted, because they were missing deaths in homes and nursing homes. So I think those were added. One fine day (15th April to be precise) they (I think) summed up all the deaths in homes and nursing homes up to that point which were deemed to be from COVID, and added them to the tally. That's what caused the spike (4X the deaths as on the previous day). Then every 4 or 5 days after that, they kept adding further sums to the tally as and when the numbers came in (lag in reporting), causing the saw-tooth graph.

I personally don't think this is justified, but that's my opinion, and so irrelevant here. The points to note are:

* That paper which you posted earlier, suggesting 93,000 deaths by Aug. 1 in the USA (which ended up becoming the official estimate for the US) - that death estimate came from a mathematical model, which was trained on data of daily deaths up to around the beginning of April, and was then used to make predictions beyond that date (first they said 60,000, then they updated to 93,000). But the training data was from the old criterion. And the actual daily death data after April 10th or so was already starting to fall far short of the prediction. According to the authors, they had already fully accounted for the lockdown in their prediction, so the shortfall can't be attributed to that.

* Then when the new criterion was adopted, the actual data fell right back on the predicted curve. This is deceptive, like I said earlier - the model was trained using only hospital deaths, so the model was only good for predicting hospital deaths, and it was over-predicting those. If the model is to be compared to hospital+home+nursing home deaths, then the model should have been trained with that data from the beginning. Else the comparison is spurious.

* The peak was already reached in terms of daily deaths around the middle of April. The adoption of the new criterion hid that fact for nearly a month.

That was in response to Mort's post, where he was surprised at the sudden steep drop-off over the last couple of days - that drop-off had already started back in April, is my point - it looks surprisingly steep now, because it was hidden for a long while.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby syam » 12 May 2020 11:59

i saw a tweet about chinese planning to test 11 million wuhan people in 10 day sprint. the scale of testing is simply mind-blowing.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 12 May 2020 13:46

syam wrote:i saw a tweet about chinese planning to test 11 million wuhan people in 10 day sprint. the scale of testing is simply mind-blowing.


They are scared sh1tless by the 2nd wave because their economy is cranking up again. Enterprises are using up their final savings to get back up again. The second wave hits and there would be no money to rebuild a second time.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ArjunPandit » 12 May 2020 14:37

chola wrote:
syam wrote:i saw a tweet about chinese planning to test 11 million wuhan people in 10 day sprint. the scale of testing is simply mind-blowing.


They are scared sh1tless by the 2nd wave because their economy is cranking up again. Enterprises are using up their final savings to get back up again. The second wave hits and there would be no money to rebuild a second time.

are you on twitter?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DavidD » 12 May 2020 15:14

syam wrote:i saw a tweet about chinese planning to test 11 million wuhan people in 10 day sprint. the scale of testing is simply mind-blowing.


Probably batch testing. Swabbing will be labor and time intensive, testing probably won't be too overwhelming, maybe only a few hundred thousand tests actually run.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 13 May 2020 00:11

sudarshan wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:Any thoughts on what the new criterion was? In your view was it justified to use this new criterion?


I believe earlier they were counting only deaths in hospitals. Then the gov. of NY made a statement that deaths were being under-counted, because they were missing deaths in homes and nursing homes. So I think those were added. One fine day (15th April to be precise) they (I think) summed up all the deaths in homes and nursing homes up to that point which were deemed to be from COVID, and added them to the tally. That's what caused the spike (4X the deaths as on the previous day). Then every 4 or 5 days after that, they kept adding further sums to the tally as and when the numbers came in (lag in reporting), causing the saw-tooth graph.

I personally don't think this is justified, but that's my opinion, and so irrelevant here. The points to note are:

* That paper which you posted earlier, suggesting 93,000 deaths by Aug. 1 in the USA (which ended up becoming the official estimate for the US) - that death estimate came from a mathematical model, which was trained on data of daily deaths up to around the beginning of April, and was then used to make predictions beyond that date (first they said 60,000, then they updated to 93,000). But the training data was from the old criterion. And the actual daily death data after April 10th or so was already starting to fall far short of the prediction. According to the authors, they had already fully accounted for the lockdown in their prediction, so the shortfall can't be attributed to that.

* Then when the new criterion was adopted, the actual data fell right back on the predicted curve. This is deceptive, like I said earlier - the model was trained using only hospital deaths, so the model was only good for predicting hospital deaths, and it was over-predicting those. If the model is to be compared to hospital+home+nursing home deaths, then the model should have been trained with that data from the beginning. Else the comparison is spurious.

* The peak was already reached in terms of daily deaths around the middle of April. The adoption of the new criterion hid that fact for nearly a month.

The big question seems to me whether those deaths attributed to COVID 19 outside of hospitals can be legitimately considered COVID related...I'm not sure what the criteria are (to refer to cause of death as COVID) but I can understand if they do so in hotspots like nursing homes or food processing plants. If all of a sudden people start dying in large numbers in certain regions during a pandemic, which can easily cause such spikes, it seems unlikely to my untrained eye that you can attribute these spikes to other reasons (unless they are totally obvious - e.g. accidents).

As things stand, despite the ramp up in testing the CFR still is at 6%. Perhaps it will go down and be a better representation after further testing although I'm not sure to what extent this will happen. If deaths decrease, I'm guessing the fall will be in proportion to a fall in the case numbers as well.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 13 May 2020 00:47

Cain Marko wrote:The big question seems to me whether those deaths attributed to COVID 19 outside of hospitals can be legitimately considered COVID related...I'm not sure what the criteria are (to refer to cause of death as COVID) but I can understand if they do so in hotspots like nursing homes or food processing plants. If all of a sudden people start dying in large numbers in certain regions during a pandemic, which can easily cause such spikes, it seems unlikely to my untrained eye that you can attribute these spikes to other reasons (unless they are totally obvious - e.g. accidents).


I don't know about outside of hospitals, but this is from the Illinois Department of Public Health Director on the subject of deaths within hospitals:

https://week.com/2020/04/20/idph-direct ... lassified/



It's probably similar in other states, and from what I can see, in Europe also.

As things stand, despite the ramp up in testing the CFR still is at 6%. Perhaps it will go down and be a better representation after further testing although I'm not sure to what extent this will happen. If deaths decrease, I'm guessing the fall will be in proportion to a fall in the case numbers as well.


Could be. For all its faults, antibody testing seems the way to go.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 13 May 2020 05:52

https://www.rediff.com/news/interview/c ... 200512.htm
'In six months' time I will come out with a vaccine'

Professor Gobardhan Das was the first immunologist in India to talk about the impact the BCG vaccine had in the fight against the COVID-19 virus.

Though he had been urging the authorities to start immunising the population with the vaccine to fight the coronavirus, his plea went unheard, unheeded.

Though his proposal was rejected, the health ministry has now approved of a clinical trial of the BCG vaccine at various institutions in India including AIIMS, Delhi.

"Now, when the US, Germany, the UK, The Netherlands, Australia, New Zealand, etc have started conducting clinical trials, those who criticised my idea made a 180-degree turn and approved clinical trials," Professor Das, below, tells Shobha Warrier/Rediff.com.

You were the first scientist in India to talk about the efficacy of the BCG vaccine in giving immunity to fight the coronavirus.
Now the health ministry has approved a clinical trial of the BCG vaccine in various institutions in India.

I am happy that what I have been talked about is accepted now. I had said that the BCG vaccine which contains a live, weakened version of Mycobacterium Bovis, can give immunity against the coronavirus.

I had written about it on social media. I had also written to the health minister that Mycobacterium Indicus Pranii would be an even more powerful vaccine.

I am happy that this has been approved by the ministry now.

Everybody is aware that I was the first one in India to talk about the efficacy of the BCG vaccine.

'BCG vaccine can be a game-changer against coronavirus'
Though I had been writing to the health minister about the idea, I was not consulted when they decided to go for a clinical trial. It would have been nice if I was taken in the team.

Why do you think you are sidelined?

Perhaps they feel they do not need scientists, and need only doctors.

But I feel such committees should consist of doctors, scientists and also epidemiologists. I don't know why they chose to ignore scientists.

But I am happy that finally they feel the idea is worth following up though initially they were against it.

ICMR said then that there was no scientific proof in what you were saying.

I put forth the idea only after comparing incidence and mortality data from all over the world.

Instead of discussing the idea, these organisations simply criticised it, and brushed it aside as one without any scientific proof.

But in 15-20 days's time, they took a 180-degree turn and decided to conduct clinical trials.

As a scientist, did you feel hurt that you were ignored?

We are human beings and we all look for appreciation. We feel happy when we are appreciated. Not only scientists, but every human being needs appreciation.

In this case, I was not just appreciated but ignored too.

Do you think the health ministry decided to approve clinical trials because all over the world, trials on the BCG vaccine are going on? Texas A&M University is leading one of the biggest trials on the BCG vaccine.

The truth is when Indians come out with an idea, it is not valued in India especially when it comes from a small person like me. The same ideas get validated when it is accepted abroad. That has been our way of life.

When you wrote about my idea, there were only very few countries talking about the BCG vaccine, and trials had not even started then. Today, many countries are doing clinical trials.

But the fact is, nobody in India cared about what I was saying. They did not give any attention to my idea.

First, I was ignored, and then my idea was criticised.

Now, when the entire world has accepted the idea and countries like the US, Germany, the UK, The Netherlands, Australia, New Zealand, etc have started conducting clinical trials, those who criticised my idea made a 180-degree turn and approved clinical trials.

This attitude really hurts.

I still feel it is not too late to include scientists in the team so that you can show the world which strain works.

Also, why do you give the authority to conduct clinical trials to a private company?

What should the ministry have been doing instead of asking a pharma company to conduct the trials?

We should be open about the clinical trials so that we can tell the world what we discover about the vaccine.

We shouldn't keep the results within ourselves, we should let the whole world know about the results.

That way, we can lead the world in the fight against the virus.

When I was talking about BCG vaccine, nobody gave a damn. Now, they have given approval to some company to do the trials.

What is needed is transparency and good scientific leadership.


This guy was totally ignored by HarshVardhan ... Looks like he is a member of BJP but no one paid attention. So he is trying to bash them ..

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby durairaaj » 13 May 2020 06:11

vijayk wrote:https://www.rediff.com/news/interview/coronavirus-in-india-in-six-months-time-i-will-come-out-with-a-vaccine/20200512.htm
'In six months' time I will come out with a vaccine'

Professor Gobardhan Das ...


This guy was totally ignored by HarshVardhan ... Looks like he is a member of BJP but no one paid attention. So he is trying to bash them ..


If one reads the whole interview, one can understand he was not bashing BJP. He was expressing anguish that the government or adminsitration had not given sufficient credit to this scientist.
His other point that career scientist were not given sufficient representation in advisory bodies. This is valid in my opinion. Many of the government advisory bodies don't have adequate participation from scientists, but are decided by the whims and fancies of civil service officials. This contributes to a big knowledge gap in the Indian administration.

I think we should not try to find ghosts, where none exists but honest criticism. I think this falls in the same level.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 13 May 2020 06:51

^^ I was more critical of Dr. HarshVardhan. But at least now, we should not wash dirty linen in public. This will be spun as pharma lobby is controlling Govt. Right now, hundreds of suggestions are coming to Govt. It is hard for them to consider every suggestion. The advisers have their own egos and biases. But GOvt. after setting up one committee, it has to listen to them instead of taking every SM idea during the height of the crisis.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby durairaaj » 13 May 2020 09:34

^^ It was not about criticising BJP or minister HarshVardhan.
All he was saying that representation should include scientists also.

This is not a SM criticism about a specific idea. This is about a explicitly visible knowledge gap in the committee created to address a problem.

I don't know why you are seeing the criticism through the lens that every criticism is against BJP or member of that group.

Trying to defend someone when there is not attack on that person is like attacking a strawmen and red herring argument together to bring attention to a particular entity, which in this case is BJP or Minister HarshVardhan. Your argument is totally unnecessary. You don't have to channelise people's opinion to support BJP or health minister by villifying the honest opinion of the scientist.

That is my point.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Krita » 13 May 2020 09:54

vijayk wrote:^^ I was more critical of Dr. HarshVardhan. But at least now, we should not wash dirty linen in public. This will be spun as pharma lobby is controlling Govt. Right now, hundreds of suggestions are coming to Govt. It is hard for them to consider every suggestion. The advisers have their own egos and biases. But GOvt. after setting up one committee, it has to listen to them instead of taking every SM idea during the height of the crisis.

I follow Dr Gobardhan's tweets and his fellow researcher Ananth Ranganathan's too. He is a nationalist and from the advent of this pandemic he was advocating the use of BCG as a prophylaxis. His lab was gheraoed by the useless jholawalas at JNU during the strike.
BJP's top leadership appears thoroughly clueless most of the times. After 6 years of being at the helm this is inexcusable.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vinod » 13 May 2020 15:05

I'm not so sure about the effectiveness of BCG vaccine. I know of people who have had taken the vaccines when they were a child and now in serious condition. May be, it gives some protection, but your guess is good as mine. Until a proper scientific study comes out, there is no way to say for sure.

Now, the govt has to be careful when channelizing resources into finding the solutions for Covid-19. It shouldn't run after the latest fad that hits the public. I think it is right that Dr. Gobardhan is kept out of this study so as to not influence the study in the way he wants. I would have to believe that health minister of India has best interests of the people of India and has got the best people with objectivity on finding the solution.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 13 May 2020 16:01

The Chinese virus uses ACE2 receptor in the lungs to infect the cells.

This would not be the first virus to use ACE2 receptors. There must be others as well.

Haven't we humans done any research on prevent this use of ACE2 receptors? for other viruses?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 13 May 2020 19:54

Any updates on the status of AB testing for Covid detections in India? I believe it was supposed to start this week, correct?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 13 May 2020 20:45

The doc now thinks there is data coming in indicating Vitamin D deficiency may be one the factors in immune response to Chinese virus.

He has been saying for a while, that Black & Brown people in Europe & US have been hit harder compared to their population percentage, due to lack of Vitamin D.

Does this explain lower deaths in India?

Last edited by nam on 13 May 2020 20:53, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Suraj » 13 May 2020 20:51

So what explains heightened mortality in sun loving Spain and Italy but not in more alpine northern Europe ?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Uttam » 13 May 2020 21:04

This link between Vitm D and COVID-19 related mortality seems to me the age old causation versus correlation problem. Do people with low Vitm D have higher death rates due to COVID-19, thus two are correlated? OR does lower Vitm D causes more death rates in among COVID-19 patients?

Italy provided the best quality data for age group mortality. No other nation has provided such rich data. Look this https://www.statista.com/statistics/110 ... oup-italy/

Mortality is between 25% and 30% among people older than 70. This age group is also less likely to venture out in sun, which is the best source of Vitm D. Many are under institutional care. If all we are observing is a lower Vitm D among Covid fatalities, then it is merely a correlation. There are statistical techniques using matching samples to overcome this problem but none are as good as a controlled experiment. I have been looking for dataset with patient characteristics variables without much luck. If anybody has a good source, I would run some tests with that data, which will still not be as good as a controlled experiment, but would provide some more evidence of whether lower Vitm D "causes" more mortality.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 13 May 2020 21:16

nam wrote:The doc now thinks there is data coming in indicating Vitamin D deficiency may be one the factors in immune response to Chinese virus.

He has been saying for a while, that Black & Brown people in Europe & US have been hit harder compared to their population percentage, due to lack of Vitamin D.

Does this explain lower deaths in India?



From my personal experience desis in Amreeka have a death rate lower than the general, white public.

Black and brown (mainly hispanic) people are far more likely to be in poverty and have lack of proper health care. I would wonder if lack of vitamin D impacts greater than poverty and lack of health. I would say not. Blacks and hispanics have lower life expectancies even before the wuhan virus and things like heart disease and diabetes which kills a lot of them at a young age already makes them even more vulnerable to the virus.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 13 May 2020 21:59

Suraj wrote:So what explains heightened mortality in sun loving Spain and Italy but not in more alpine northern Europe ?


Lack of Vitamin D could be due to Winter months. General lack of Sun across Europe, coupled with fully covered clothing.

The region worst hit in Italy was in the North. Coupled with the aged population.

It is a know factor that Vit D helps in the immune process. It probably betters your chance of fighting the virus, rather than hoping to get lucky.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 13 May 2020 22:03

chola wrote:From my personal experience desis in Amreeka have a death rate lower than the general, white public.

Black and brown (mainly hispanic) people are far more likely to be in poverty and have lack of proper health care. I would wonder if lack of vitamin D impacts greater than poverty and lack of health. I would say not. Blacks and hispanics have lower life expectancies even before the wuhan virus and things like heart disease and diabetes which kills a lot of them at a young age already makes them even more vulnerable to the virus.


Darker the skin, longer it takes to make Vitamin D.

UK has seen a higher death rate of Brown people, compared to their population percentage. There could be many factor, not just one.

We Brown people living in colder place in Amerika & Europe, would have a weaker immune system. In India it is taken care by excess Sun..

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Suraj » 13 May 2020 22:09

nam wrote:
Suraj wrote:So what explains heightened mortality in sun loving Spain and Italy but not in more alpine northern Europe ?


Lack of Vitamin D could be due to Winter months. General lack of Sun across Europe, coupled with fully covered clothing.

The region worst hit in Italy was in the North. Coupled with the aged population.

It is a know factor that Vit D helps in the immune process. It probably betters your chance of fighting the virus, rather than hoping to get lucky.

I don't really see a correlation here to Vit D regarding mortality rates among ethnic minorities in the west. Without normalizing to income and any other factors, it just becomes a guess, unless there are studies that analyze this in detail.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 13 May 2020 22:12

According to the video, there seems to be a study being planned, with high dosage of Vit D being given within control groups. Let's see what comes out of it.


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