Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby syam » 18 May 2020 20:22

Spanish antibody study points to 5% of population affected by coronavirus
MADRID (Reuters) - Preliminary results from a nationwide coronavirus antibody study show that about 5% of the overall Spanish population has been affected, the Health Ministry said on Wednesday, adding that results varied widely from region to region.

The study, carried out by the Carlos III institute for health and the National Statistics Institute, began on April 27 and aimed to test 90,000 people across 36,000 households for the presence of antibodies generated to fight off the virus.

The testing should help the government gauge the true extent of the epidemic, taking into account also those who may be immune or resistant to the infection.

ARanganathan saying(he quoted above article on his tl)
The largest nationwide Antibody testing results from Spain show that 2.35 million are CoVID positive, and not 277,000 as earlier thought (through RT-PCR testing).

Death Rate now reduced from 10% to 1.1%.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 18 May 2020 20:47

Coronavirus Vaccine From Moderna Shows Early Signs of Viral Immune Response

An experimental vaccine from the U.S. biotechnology company Moderna Inc. showed signs that it can create an immune-system response to fend off the new coronavirus, offering tentative hopes in the global effort to combat the pandemic.

The results are just a sample from the small, first study designed to look at the safety of the shot in human volunteers, and should be viewed with caution. But they showed no major safety worries, a key first hurdle since a vaccine would be given to millions of otherwise healthy people.

“This is a very good sign that we make an antibody that can stop the virus from replicating,” Moderna Chief Executive Officer Stephane Bancel said in an interview. The data “couldn’t have been better,” he said. The company is moving ahead with plans for a larger test to pick a dose of the vaccine and further study its effectiveness, as well as a phase 3 test with many thousands of patients.

A vaccine is considered a crucial step toward lifting social-distancing measures and safely reopening economies, schools and events around the globe. The new coronavirus, known as SARS-CoV-2, has infected more than 4.7 million people and killed over 300,000, spurring a global race by drugmakers, academic institutions and governments to find a vaccine.

Moderna shares surged as much as 30% in New York, hitting an all-time intraday high of $87. Broader markets rose as well, with S&P 500 futures and European stocks trading near session highs.

The vaccine trials are being conducted in stages, with the first test designed only to look at safety and whether or not the shot created lab markers of an immune-system response. Only in later stages of testing, to be conducted in thousands of patients starting in July, will the vaccine go up against the virus in the real world in a definitive test of whether it prevents or lessens infections.


In the phase 1 test, the researchers looked at blood samples from the test subjects and whether the vaccine helped them generate antibodies that could theoretically fight off an infection. The researchers found that at two lower dose levels used in the study, levels of antibodies found after getting a second booster shot of the vaccine either equaled or exceeded the levels of antibodies found in patients who had recovered from the virus.

Bancel said that safety profile appeared to be good, and the reactions were typical of vaccines. Three patients who got a high dose of the vaccine had more severe side effects, according to a company presentation. That dose won’t be used in later trials. One person with more severe side effects got a middle dose, and had redness around the injection site, the company said.

Side effects seen in the trial included fatigue, fever, muscle pains and headache. All of the symptoms resolved within a day, a Moderna executive said on a conference call Monday.

The phase 2 trial, with 600 patients, will begin shortly, according to the company. Bancel said the company felt it needed to release the interim data from the early trial because of the high level of interest in the vaccine.

Researchers studied blood samples from the test subjects to determine whether the vaccine helped them generate antibodies that could bind to the virus and ones that can fight off an infection. The looked at both the quantity of coronavirus antibodies produced, and in a smaller subset of people, whether those antibodies were sufficient to prevent the virus from infecting cells in test tube experiments.

In 25 people who got either of the two smaller doses used in the study, researchers reported that the levels of antibodies equaled or exceeded the levels of antibodies found in patients who had recovered from the virus.

The second test, evaluating the quality of those antibodies, was only available for eight of the people because it takes longer to perform. But in all eight people, the vaccine successfully stimulated the body to create antibodies capable of neutralizing the virus in the test tube, so it can no longer infect cells.

New Vaccine Technology
Most vaccines either consist of inactive pieces of a virus or proteins from a virus made through genetic engineering. When injected into the body, they trigger a lasting immune response similar to that of a person who has been infected and recovered.

By contrast, the mRNA technology being used by Moderna and several others relies on the body’s own cells to produce viral proteins. Once injected into the body, the RNA slips into human cells and tells them to make virus-like proteins, in this case the “spike” protein on the surface of the coronavirus. If the vaccine works, those proteins then trigger the body to generate protective antibodies.

While the technology is new and hasn’t been used in an approved vaccine before, it allows researchers to move fast into trials. Moderna started working on its Covid-19 vaccine as soon as Chinese scientists put out the gene sequence for the virus in January. By late February, Moderna’s scientists had already delivered the first batch of candidate vaccines to researchers at the U.S. National Institutes of Health. In mid-March, the first healthy volunteer received a dose in the government-sponsored safety trial.

Former GlaxoSmithKline Plc executive Moncef Slaoui, who is set to become the chief scientist for Operation Warp Speed, the White House effort to turbocharge vaccine development, has been a board member at Moderna since 2017. According to a person familiar with the matter, he will leave that and other board seats once he starts the position.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby darshan » 18 May 2020 21:35

Cyclonic Storm Amphan Intensifies Into Super Cyclone, Currently Centred 770 Km South Of Odisha’s Paradip
https://swarajyamag.com/insta/cyclonic- ... as-paradip

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vamsee » 18 May 2020 21:59

Smriti Z Irani
@smritiirani

PPE Update as on 18 th May — today we have crossed per day production of 4.5 lac PPE suits .. India now has over 600 companies who are lab certified
to manufacture PPE Folded hands

Link

===============

We will probably start exporting PPE suits pretty soon. Out of no where, we have emerged as second largest PPE manufacturer in the world. I wonder how many PPE suits are produced by China every day....

--Vamsee

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Deans » 18 May 2020 22:54



I don't see the logic of Karnataka (and other states) trying to micro manage everything, when not all their rules can be implemented - or make sense.
What is the logic of a complete lock-down on Sunday ? If you do allow activity on Sunday, it will reduce crowding on other days. Similarly, keeping parks open for just 2 hours will increase crowding in the time that they are open. Who is going to monitor if buses have 30 people ? Malls (which are less crowded than markets) remain closed, while crowded markets are open (which is how Chennai saw a spike).

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Lisa » 18 May 2020 23:10

nithish wrote:
V_Raman wrote:Here is a paper on Vit D and Cytokine storm corrleation. One of the authors is the husband of my Sister-in-Law.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20058578v3

We all are taking 5000 IU Vitamin D daily now as it is a safe mitigation.


This article is reaching conclusions from imaginary data. As the authors note, there is no data available for COVID patients and their vitamin D levels so they are correlating published data on vitamin D levels in other populations and levels of inflammatory markers, and somehow applying this to COVID patient data.

Vitamin D and its effect on reducing respiratory infections has been well-studied and the jury is out. It probably has a protective effect in people who are malnutritioned and/or those who are very deficient in vitamin D.

The higher risk of death in minorities in the UK is possibly due to higher prevalence of diabetes and hypertension, both of which increase risk of COVID death. Access to healthcare and/or discrimination probably needs to be considered as well

5000 units vitamin daily is a very high daily dose!!!
The usual dose for daily supplementation in DEFICIENT ADULTS is 800 IU once a day.


Our largest selling dose is 3000 ius and the second is 5000 ius. Doctors locally will routinely give injections of 100,000 ius to 250,000 ius. Virtually nobody bothers with a dose of less than 1000 ius.

IndraD wrote:UK: coronavirus tests advised for people who lose taste or smell. Added as red flag symptom along with fever, myalgia, sore throat, SOB.


Whether by coincidence or not, we would normally relate a loss of smell and taste to a Zinc deficiency. Some pages ago Zinc was being discussed as a necessary supplement to help with Covid infection.

Just saying.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby yensoy » 18 May 2020 23:18

Lisa wrote:Our largest selling dose is 3000 ius and the second is 5000 ius. Doctors locally will routinely give injections of 100,000 ius to 250,000 ius. Virtually nobody bothers with a dose of less than 1000 ius.


Isn't the injected Vitamin-D dose in some oil base which provides the daily dosage in a regulated manner over several months to a year? So while you are possibly correct in that nobody bothers with a small dose, the big dose is not a daily thing but needs to last for several months. I have received one of those.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 18 May 2020 23:30

Vamsee wrote:I wonder how many PPE suits are produced by China every day....

Not sure about PPE, but WION did a segment about face masks production in China (was dated around a month or two back) and they said Chinese are able to produce 1.6 Million face masks per day

Sachin wrote:Coronavirus lockdown: Buses, autos, cabs to start from May 19, says Karnataka CM B S Yediyurappa
Ban on entry of people from 4 states, total lockdown on Sundays: Karnataka CM

I expect daily number of cases to spike up...

I do hope some drug combination (like that Bangladesh doc is claiming) works in improving recovery rate (including of hospitalized patients) is found. This would be a massive confidence booster for further easing the restrictions and for many business segments to start operating normally (salons, spas etc. which operate mainly on touch basis).

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 18 May 2020 23:52

Over 100 Million in China’s Northeast Face Renewed Lockdown

> Conditions return to height of China’s epidemic in February
> Frustration as restrictions tighten again after earlier easing


More reasons why we need at least a drug combo if not vaccine ASAP...

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby darshan » 19 May 2020 00:27

Dhaman-1 is useful at initial stage, demanded high-end ventilators for critical patients: Dr. Prabhakar
https://www.deshgujarat.com/2020/05/18/ ... prabhakar/
Gandhinagar: Officer on Special Duty at Asarwa Civil hospital Dr. MM Prabhakar today while clarifying reports based on his letter said, ‘indigenous manufactured Dhaman-1 and high-end ventilators both are important. In initial phase, when the patient needs oxygen, Dhaman-1 is very useful. When patient is in critical condition, high-end ventilators are required.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vimal » 19 May 2020 00:31

Vamsee wrote:Smriti Z Irani
@smritiirani

PPE Update as on 18 th May — today we have crossed per day production of 4.5 lac PPE suits .. India now has over 600 companies who are lab certified
to manufacture PPE Folded hands

Link

===============

We will probably start exporting PPE suits pretty soon. Out of no where, we have emerged as second largest PPE manufacturer in the world. I wonder how many PPE suits are produced by China every day....

--Vamsee


Only if we can actually keep using PPEs, Gloves and Sanitizers even after the pandemic is over. Also, get on the export bandwagon and undercut the CCP manufacturing machine. Of course, if the west still tries to keep molly coddling and sucking up to cheen then nothing really matters.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby darshan » 19 May 2020 00:49

Would not there be a trade off of start losing immunity to everyday things if we go in sanitized bubble of killing everything in sight or staying away from it?

For sure protocols and machinations need to be in place moving forward so some country come tomorrow doesn't get any ideas.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 19 May 2020 00:54

Zynda wrote:Over 100 Million in China’s Northeast Face Renewed Lockdown

> Conditions return to height of China’s epidemic in February
> Frustration as restrictions tighten again after earlier easing


More reasons why we need at least a drug combo if not vaccine ASAP...


This thing will keep coming back. If they are locking down a 100 million (!!!) people again and again, the chini economy is screwed. We need to find a way to live with this virus. AIDS used to be an automatic death sentence but a drug combo now makes that 99% survivable. We have to find something.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 19 May 2020 01:23

^^Yes, AIDS infection now is not a really big deal like it was once. But transmission of AIDS is not as easy as Covid! Obviously, with a lot of precautions, one can minimize the chances of contracting/transmission of Covid...but yeah, at least a drug combo which will increase the recovery rate is good enough to make countries/citizens gain enough confidence to return to a more or less normalcy.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chetak » 19 May 2020 01:40

this is one real feisty, never say die, lady

She is mainly responsible for this quick and timely ramp up in local PPE production.



Smriti Z Irani @smritiirani·7h

PPE Update as on 18 th May — today we have crossed per day production of 4.5 lac PPE suits .. India now has over 600 companies who are lab certified to manufacture PPE
5:39 PM · May 18, 2020

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 19 May 2020 02:03

darshan wrote:Would not there be a trade off of start losing immunity to everyday things if we go in sanitized bubble of killing everything in sight or staying away from it?

For sure protocols and machinations need to be in place moving forward so some country come tomorrow doesn't get any ideas.


Yes there is a big trade-off. Living sanitized with greatly reduced contact with potential pathogens destroys immunity. Limited exposure is the way to go. The alternative is what seems to be the end-goal of allopathic systems - replace the entire immune system with drug cocktails. Neither sustainable nor desirable.

There were some posts on this thread along the lines of - "this virus is the most evolved to date, it will only get worse, viruses will evolve to the point where they have awesome abilities." This virus is neither the most contagious (that would be measles), nor the most deadly (a host of other viruses will beat this one to claim that title), nor the "most evolved" in any sense. Evolution is not linear, that viruses get increasingly better at all aspects like contagiousness, lethality, re-infection, and further accelerated evolution. The viruses need hosts to survive, if they kill off those hosts too quickly, they die out themselves. And mammals (including humans) are also evolving to deal with new threats (although with humans, that process is greatly slowed down by medicine, which aims to keep the status quo and supplement it with drugs).

The initial lockdown was probably inevitable, but it is in no way sustainable in the long term. The need is to evolve a better strategy, keeping the observed characteristics of the virus in mind.

The worst hotspots for this current pandemic, don't show infection rates exceeding 25%. It could be that the virus hasn't done its worst. But the characteristics of the virus seem to be - great inhomogeniety in infectiousness and susceptibility among the target population. It seems (based on the references I linked in my earlier post) that about 9% to 10% of the infected population is responsible for 80% of subsequent infections, and the remaining 90% of the infected population or so only contribute to 20% of subsequent infections. These 9% to 10% or so are the "super spreaders." This was also observed in S. Korea, where the one church caused about 60% of subsequent infections. They had an aggressive tracing program, admittedly. Then there is inhomogeniety in susceptibility. When the most susceptible members get infected and recover (or not), the infection starts petering out. There could be some overlap between infectiousness vs. susceptibility inhomogeniety, which can be accounted for in various ways. For example, infectiousness inhomogeniety could be due to high viral load, which correlates with immune response, and that would overlap with susceptibility inhomogeniety. OTOH, infectiousness could also be determined by the number of contacts which the person has, and above-average social interaction with these contacts - and this would not overlap with susceptibility inhomogeniety.

What all this means, is that the simplistic 1-1/R0 model for the herd immunity threshold doesn't describe the infection dynamics. Accounting for the inhomogenities can be done with more sophisticated models. These models are not new, they seem to have been used with well-recognized (which isn't necessarily the same as - accurately estimated) parameters for malaria, TB, and also the first SARS infection (2002). These diseases also apparently display substantial inhomogenities in infectiousness and susceptibility. With models which account for the inhomogeniety for SARS-2/COVID-19 (10% being super spreaders) the herd immunity threshold with an R0 of 2.4 or so seems to come down to the 10% to 20% range (the simple 1-1/R0 model yields about 58% HIT). References for this statement are in my previous post.

The test of any model being real-world validation - that validation would come from what kind of headway the virus makes when lockdowns are removed. If it continues to advance in former hotspots like NYC, Italy, etc. that would mean that those places are not yet at the end-phase (note - the end state is not herd immunity, infection momentum carries beyond that point, so if the HIT is like 10%, eventually about 20% to 25% would get infected - likewise, with a 60% HI threshold, it seems about 80% to 90% would get infected eventually, with unrestrained spread). Again, references are in my previous post.

If there's not much advance in those former hotspots when lockdowns are lifted, that would imply that there is no point in further lockdowns in those areas, beyond the 20% infection point or so. Blindly repeating the "60% herd immunity threshold, and no part of the world is even close to this" mantra, without keeping in mind the underlying assumptions and (lack of) sophistication of the infection model, does not help.

Spain as a whole shows 5% infected (with a decent sample size of 70,000 or so individuals, >0.1% of the country's population), which is actually a phenomenal number for a country as a whole, especially when it has been under lockdown for a decent while. Individual areas within Spain show infected fractions as high as 15%. Same with France, 4.4% countrywide, much higher in hotspots like Paris. NYC, Italy, Paris, Diamond Princess, etc. being in the 15% to 25% range, might indicate that the simplistic model yielding 60% HIT needs to be reevaluated.

So the need now is to observe what happens as lockdowns are eased, especially in earlier hotspots. That would indicate how to proceed. Of course, there is no need for mathematical models for this, empirical evidence of further disease spread is sufficient, this seems to be the direction India is going in, with R/O/G zones. I only brought up the above, because the "60% infection threshold necessary to stop this disease" mantra keeps getting mindlessly repeated, and it's starting to look like this principle from a naive model might actually drive public policy.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby darshan » 19 May 2020 03:46

0.87%

1,273 Maharashtra Police Personnel So Far Tested Positive For Coronavirus; 11 Dead
https://swarajyamag.com/insta/1273-maha ... us-11-dead

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 19 May 2020 03:48

Trump reveals he's taking hydroxychloroquine in effort to prevent coronavirus symptoms

President Trump revealed to reporters on Monday he’s taking the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine in an effort to prevent getting coronavirus, saying he’s been taking a pill every day for about a week and a half.

“I’m taking it – hydroxychloroquine,” the president told reporters during a roundtable with restaurant leaders in the White House’s State Dining Room.

He added: “I think it's good. I've heard a lot good stories. And if it's not good, I'll tell you right, I'm not going to get hurt by it."

The president added that he consulted with the White House physician before starting to take the drug.

Hydroxychloroquine is a widely used anti-malarial drug that the president has touted as a possible treatment for COVID-19.

But it's effectiveness for treating coronavirus has been a subject of debate: A recent analysis of the use of the drug to treat COVID-19 patients in U.S. veterans’ hospitals found no benefit to using the drug and that there were more deaths among those given hydroxychloroquine versus standard care.

The nationwide study, which was released last month, was not a rigorous experiment. But with 368 patients, it’s the largest look so far of hydroxychloroquine with or without the antibiotic azithromycin for COVID-19.

Despite the study, Trump has continued to defend the use of hydroxychloroquine to treat the novel coronavirus and slammed the demoted government scientist who filed a whistleblower complaint claiming he was removed from his post for disagreeing with the Trump administration’s push to use the drug.

Trump said last week that there was a “tremendous response” to hydroxychloroquine and called Rick Bright -- the former director of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority – a “disgruntled person.”

Are front line workers around the world still on HCQ to reduce chances of Covid contraction?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 19 May 2020 04:28

IndraD wrote:Doubts over Oxford vaccine for nCV:

In US trial all monkeys who were vaccinated with Oxford vaccine developed infection later on when challenged with sub lethal dose of virus. While they developed high amount of antibodies, it wasn't enough to prevent infection from nCV.
However scientists at London said vaccine should be welcomed with cautious optimism, as none of the monkeys in vaccine group died. And produced high antibodies.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... al-trials/

same trial has been quoted as success on BBC, CBS etc.
Monkeys who had vaccine didn't develop pneumonia when exposed to nCV. They didn;t develop severity of illness nor did they develop enhanced immune response which is what makes patients go 'either way'
In the other group, monkeys w/o vaccination even died from nCV infection.
Dr Penny Ward, a visiting professor in pharmaceutical medicine at King's College London, said it was "helpful" to see that the vaccine didn't cause a worse disease response in these monkeys, and that they didn't develop pneumonia after being vaccinated.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52674739

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 19 May 2020 19:02

<Nothing to see>
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 19 May 2020 19:10

https://twitter.com/Kaalateetham/status ... 4697926658

ಶರಣ Dr Jagadish J Hiremath @Kaalateetham

Just out of Prototype testing of Mahindra's ventilator.

Fantastic effort in such a short time. This ventilator can become the bulwark for protecting our high end ventilators. It has ICU design philosophy & can be used by anyone with little training ideal vent for T H & PHCs


Image
Image
Image
These devices will bolster our healthcare system for sure (assuming everything goes well...)

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 19 May 2020 19:21

Moderna Coronavirus Vaccine Trial Shows Promising Early Results https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/18/heal ... derna.html

Moderna vaccine trial of US
It has shown encouraging results in phase I trial (8 patients)
25 & 100 mcg doses were used, both produced antibodies comparable to patients who recovered from Covid.
Higher dose produced headache & chills and will not be used any more in trial.
Now 2nd & third stage will follow, if all phases succeed > vaccine will be available in Jan-June 2021

https://investors.modernatx.com/news-re ... na-vaccine
Moderna Announces Positive Interim Phase 1 Data for its mRNA Vaccine (mRNA-1273) Against Novel Coronavirus

After two doses all participants evaluated to date across the 25 µg and 100 µg dose cohorts seroconverted with binding antibody levels at or above levels seen in convalescent sera

mRNA-1273 elicited neutralizing antibody titer levels in all eight initial participants across the 25 µg and 100 µg dose cohorts, reaching or exceeding neutralizing antibody titers generally seen in convalescent sera

mRNA-1273 was generally safe and well tolerated

mRNA-1273 provided full protection against viral replication in the lungs in a mouse challenge model

Anticipated dose for Phase 3 study between 25 µg and 100 µg; expected to start in July

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sajo » 19 May 2020 19:38

Umm.. Was the one in April a mock drill to prepare for this?

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/m ... 2020-05-19

I expect a WHOPPING unbelievable increase in Mumbai-Pune belt, as the opening up happens. Potential to be the highest concentration in the world after NY. I am seriously hoping to be proved wrong.

One day after Moderna proclaimed success of their limited trials, the Chinese PR machinery swung into action and promptly got this published :

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05- ... ccine.html

Do Rakshaks think that they had used this untested medicine as a desperate measure to bring the virus to a screeching halt in Wuhan?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saumitra_j » 19 May 2020 19:48

Apologies if this is a repost: Article on Antibody Testing in India

Key points:

States across India are either increasingly sceptical about antibody testing for COVID-19 or are reluctant to use it, IndiaSpend has found in conversations with several health officials. Antibody tests give vital information about a contagion’s spread, and this wariness could have significant implications for India’s current and future strategies to deal with COVID-19, said experts.

All through April 2020, the government had maintained during press conferences that a large tranche of kits was on its way from China. The delivery was delayed but on April 16, 2020, the antibody kits finally arrived in India. However by end-April, the enthusiasm for antibody testing waned after the government announced that the kits from two Chinese companies were faulty and asked states to stop using them. Now, states are reluctant to even put out tenders for antibody tests, we found.


When the ICMR blacklisted two Chinese companies--Wondfo and Livzon--its press statement only said that the kits were “under-performing” with “wide variation in their sensitivity, despite early promise of good performance”.


The ICMR announced on May 10 that it was going to do surveillance and antibody detection via a new ELISA test developed by the government. ELISA testing is another technology to check for the presence of antibodies. But it is not a ‘rapid’ test, it is done in the lab and not on the field. “The test has an advantage of having much higher sensitivity and specificity as compared to the several rapid test kits which have recently flooded the Indian market,” said the press release about the new test.


Whenever a vaccine is ready, antibody testing will be key to determining who receives it. “If antibodies do provide protection against COVID-19, then vaccines can be given to those vulnerable populations who have not developed these antibodies,” said Bal. The government will need to do antibody testing to get the baseline area-wise data on positive cases, said Dhara. “This then tells us who needs a vaccine and if a vaccine has been effective in that area,” he added.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 19 May 2020 23:57

^^There was one interview on Fox News, where an individual had to take (or did an experiment...not sure) 2 consecutive AB tests. One was the kit from Abbott & the other from Quest Diagnostics. It seems like he got positive result from one & a negative result from the other. Apparently, Roche AB kit is considered as the Gold Standard and he was yet to take test using Roche kit. I could not see Roche kits in the list of approved ones by ICMR.

Anyways, I think India is slow wrt AB testing for surveillance. I hope the Indian docs here could inform us the reasoning behind the reluctance.

Also, BBMP has got its act together and have been updating the BLR Covid Dashboard more or less frequently. In the latest version, they show containment zones sizes. Pretty cool...

BBMP Covid Dashboard

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby disha » 20 May 2020 02:22

saumitra_j wrote:Apologies if this is a repost: Article on Antibody Testing in India


I have to point out that the above is a non-sense of an article. It just indulges in severe what-aboutery without much basis. Problem is to call that what-aboutery out and as a proper rebuttal is time consuming and energy draining.

And BTW, the Chinese firms were rightly blacklisted. And yes, coming up with an anti-body test takes time. Currently, it is done in the lab setting. And it is costly.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 20 May 2020 08:20

https://www.timesnownews.com/health/art ... ght/594091

Dr Tarek Alam, the head of the medical department at the Bangladesh Medical College Hospital, and one of the senior members of the team, stated that a combination of the two drugs were administered to 60 patientsIvermectin is an anti-parasitic drug commonly used to cure roundworm infections, and belonging to a class of drugs known as antihelmintics. As a tetracycline, Doxycyline is often used to treat the flu and the common cold, as well as in the prevention of malaria
A team of medical doctors from Bangladesh have, reportedly, had “astounding” success in treating patients suffering from COVID-19 with two commonly used drugs, Doxycline and Ivermectin.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby hanumadu » 20 May 2020 09:43

Maharashtra is becoming unmanageable. Kolkota has similar density as Mumbai. The numbers coming out of Kolkota are complete BS.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saumitra_j » 20 May 2020 10:13

disha wrote:I have to point out that the above is a non-sense of an article. It just indulges in severe what-aboutery without much basis. Problem is to call that what-aboutery out and as a proper rebuttal is time consuming and energy draining.

And BTW, the Chinese firms were rightly blacklisted. And yes, coming up with an anti-body test takes time. Currently, it is done in the lab setting. And it is costly.


Disha sir, I still feel the article had important nuggets of information that I could not find elsewhere; Firstly, the usual question asked is why is India not doing anti body testing and if you ignore the what aboutery in the article the answer is pretty clear: The Chinese kits failed and India is waiting for Indian kits (ELISA) to be mass produced. These kits are not like the rapid testing kits which are not very reliable. ELISA tests will take a day to give you the results. Important detail for us to know IMHO so that policy makers can set realistic expectations.

Second important take away for me was that policy decisions are being taken based what the professionals at ICMR suggest - important thing in an Indian context because a professional institution (ICMR) is driving things, not the ministry (babus) or the minister(politicians). Now ICMR may get some things wrong and will require corrections but it is important that such institutions work independently and bring in a level of professionalism in policy making. We are not dependent on a single individual but an institution!

Thirdly and probably not relevant to this thread: Just like the GST councils, states are completely free to take their own decisions. An important counter to people who think GOI is dictatorial in nature!

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby srai » 20 May 2020 14:23


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Date: April 2, 2020
1 million cases
50,000 deaths

5% death rate average
...

Date: April 15, 2020
Over 2 million cases today
134,000 deaths

6.7% death rate average (known cases and deaths)

Known cases doubled in two weeks.

Date: April 27, 2020
Coronavirus Cases: 3,055,498
Deaths: 211,035
Recovered: 918,184

6.9% death rate average (known cases and deaths)
30% Recovery average

Another million in 12-days. Recovered inching towards a million (1/3 of known infections).

Date: May 9, 2020
Coronavirus Cases: 4,032,763
Deaths: 276,677
Recovered: 1,399,718

6.86% death rate average (known cases and deaths)
34.7% recovery average (known cases and recovery)

Three times in a row ... 12-to-14 days another million case



Date: May 20, 2020
Coronavirus Cases: 5,000,599
Deaths: 325,156
Recovered: 1,970,918

11-days to another million
6.5% death rate average (known cases and deaths)
39.4% recovery average (known cases and recovery)

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 20 May 2020 15:13

Coronavirus patients in new Chinese cluster exhibiting symptoms differently than Wuhan

Coronavirus patients in northeastern China are reportedly taking longer to recover from the virus and to exhibit symptoms than patients from the original outbreak in Wuhan, one of China’s top doctors told state TV Tuesday.

Dr. Qiu Haibo, who is taking care of patients in the northeast, said the more than two-week incubation period is making it hard to keep the virus from spreading and could show the virus is changing, Bloomberg reported.

Patients in the northeast also mostly have lung damage rather than in their heart, kidney and stomach as in Wuhan.

At least 46 cases have popped up in three cities north of North Korea's border -- Jilin City, Shulan, and Shengyang -- and are under lockdown again. Of those infected, 26 have been hospitalized, according to Bloomberg.

Last month, a study from Zhejiang University in Hangzhou, China, found the virus had mutated into at least 30 different genetic mutations.

"Drug and vaccine development, while urgent, need to take the impact of these accumulating mutations, especially the founding mutations, into account to avoid potential pitfall," the study said.

The differences, however, could be because only the sickest patients were being treated when the virus first overwhelmed Wuhan and doctors can now pay more attention to the way symptoms manifest.

“The longer period during which infected patients show no symptoms has created clusters of family infections,” Qui added, according to Bloomberg.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 20 May 2020 20:57

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01092-3
Cautious optimism on vaccines at best

clinical trials do not mean guaranteed success on humans, no RNA vaccine so far licenced anywhere in the world. This will be the first of its kind.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 20 May 2020 21:43

hand wash with soap: 6-10 times a day
Washing your hands at least six to 10 times a day makes catching infections such as coronavirus much less likely
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52720089

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 20 May 2020 22:05

vijayk wrote:https://www.timesnownews.com/health/article/bangladeshi-doctors-succeed-in-curing-covid-19-could-a-likely-coronavirus-treatment-be-hiding-in-plain-sight/594091

Dr Tarek Alam, the head of the medical department at the Bangladesh Medical College Hospital, and one of the senior members of the team, stated that a combination of the two drugs were administered to 60 patientsIvermectin is an anti-parasitic drug commonly used to cure roundworm infections, and belonging to a class of drugs known as antihelmintics. As a tetracycline, Doxycyline is often used to treat the flu and the common cold, as well as in the prevention of malaria
A team of medical doctors from Bangladesh have, reportedly, had “astounding” success in treating patients suffering from COVID-19 with two commonly used drugs, Doxycline and Ivermectin.


On Doxycline and Ivermectin - Can Dr. Randeep or anyone comment if this is being tried in India with people in Hospitals? Are there any results?

My cousin (Doctor) says these were used for H1N1 and SARS and being tried.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 20 May 2020 22:06

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 843069.cms

Union health minister Harsh Vardhan to head WHO executive board

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SRoy » 20 May 2020 22:32

hanumadu wrote:Maharashtra is becoming unmanageable. Kolkota has similar density as Mumbai. The numbers coming out of Kolkota are complete BS.

Tell me sir!
I live in Kolkata. All markets opened. No night curfew.
I guess I should come across streets full of corpses the moment step outside.
I even took my car out for a quick reconnaissance yesterday. And will start increasing the radius gradually.
I am hoping to see the tell tale signs of post apocalyptic Kolkata.

Every city and state has managed their numbers, some less and some more.

In the my neck of woods, nobody likes TMC nor votes them, so I would expect to hear something from the grapevine. None yet.

Please stop unnecessary demonizing a state and stop spreading FUD.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby suryag » 20 May 2020 23:27

Sroy Sir you are taking offence where none is intended. If Mumbai and Kolkata are cities with similar density isnt it logical to expect similar numbers? unless of course someone in Kolkata has magically found a cure. Please reduce your sensitivity in general Kolkata is as much my city as is Hyderabad or BLR

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SRoy » 20 May 2020 23:45

^^
Point is that the TMC govt. fudged numbers, but that alone cannot account for vast difference in infection and dead numbers between Mumbai and Kolkata, if comparative population sizes and density are sole criteria.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SRoy » 20 May 2020 23:54

In Kolkata the lock down was accepted by people by and large.
And Kolkata, despite its population density (which is mostly in old areas ... which means legal tenements with proper amenities ) do not have large slum clusters. Slums are there, littered around in manageable sizes.

And FWIW, I returned to Kolkata via the last flight that was available from Ahmedabad, I distinctly remember most of the incoming passengers were IT crowd from HYD/BLR/NCR. Hardly the sort that was carrying infection in the last week of March.

So, seemingly low numbers from Kolkata has nothing to do with number fudging that TMC govt. did. Even without number fudging the numbers would have remained low.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby shaun » 21 May 2020 00:03

SRoy wrote:^^
Point is that the TMC govt. fudged numbers, but that alone cannot account for vast difference in infection and dead numbers between Mumbai and Kolkata, if comparative population sizes and density are sole criteria.


Yes its futile comparing Kolkata and Mumbai based on population density as it's not the only factor for rise in Chinese virus positive, there are many factors , didi comparatively better managed than maha govt , less international exposure/ flights ( I guess it's less than even Hyderabad and Bangalore ) , people are more cautious . But information is curtailed , top down approach , some indicators are not good , like nurses leaving WB in hundreds , mortality rate highest .

Then there are this “Treatment protocols say that asymptomatic patients or mildly symptomatic ones can stay at home if they do not have comorbidity,” said a Bengal health department official. “The huge inflow of influenza and severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) patients is clearly a run on the hospitals. So, at times, doctors do not suggest admission. But it varies from hospital to hospital,” the official added.
We have a very limited number of masks, not even one for each. We needed close to 300. We are yet to get that,” a staffer at Howrah District General Hospital said.

A doctor said the government had “issued guidelines for reusing PPE, but we are not able to do so”. “These PPE can’t be reused or we do not have enough means to sanitise these PPE again,” the doctor added.

According to the health bulletin issued Sunday, 22,950 PPE and 15,550 N95 masks were sent to Howrah district, but the doctor contested these figures. “These numbers must be for media bulletins. We do not see that many being used in actuality,” the doctor said.

In Uluberia, the ESI hospital, a Level-I facility, has 25 Covid-19 patients, but no oxygen support or ventilator, and the doctors and heath staff were seen moving without masks.


Although it might be far fetched , with the diktat that "asymptomatic patients or mildly symptomatic ones can stay at home if they do not have comorbidity,” the suspected positive patients won't show up in the data , the catch is national mortality rate is 3% approx , the most serious will be in hospital and the deceased will be in the list and so the high mortality rate. The balance 97 % who became healthy at home will never make it to the list of positive cases. Maybe the reason behind mismanagement of death figures initially.


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