Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4688
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby hanumadu » 21 May 2020 02:46

SRoy wrote:
hanumadu wrote:Maharashtra is becoming unmanageable. Kolkota has similar density as Mumbai. The numbers coming out of Kolkota are complete BS.

Tell me sir!
I live in Kolkata. All markets opened. No night curfew.
I guess I should come across streets full of corpses the moment step outside.
I even took my car out for a quick reconnaissance yesterday. And will start increasing the radius gradually.
I am hoping to see the tell tale signs of post apocalyptic Kolkata.

Every city and state has managed their numbers, some less and some more.

In the my neck of woods, nobody likes TMC nor votes them, so I would expect to hear something from the grapevine. None yet.

Please stop unnecessary demonizing a state and stop spreading FUD.


You are being unnecessarily sensitive. How am I attacking the state when it is the administration that has to take responsibility for managing the crisis and giving out the correct numbers. The mortality rate of WB is twice than the national average. That means the cases must be at least twice as many, even if we believe the mortality numbers are correct. All states that are not managing well have been criticized here on this forum including Gujarat. UT has been criticized no end here and on SM. Heck in the very post you quoted, I mentioned MH too. No body said I am demonizing MH.

DrRatnadip
BRFite
Posts: 530
Joined: 31 Dec 2016 00:40

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 21 May 2020 10:57

vijayk wrote:
vijayk wrote:https://www.timesnownews.com/health/article/bangladeshi-doctors-succeed-in-curing-covid-19-could-a-likely-coronavirus-treatment-be-hiding-in-plain-sight/594091



On Doxycline and Ivermectin - Can Dr. Randeep or anyone comment if this is being tried in India with people in Hospitals? Are there any results?

My cousin (Doctor) says these were used for H1N1 and SARS and being tried.


-asymptomatic or those with very mild symptoms are treated with HCQ.. One broad spectrum antibiotic like Amoxyclav/ cefixim / Azithromycin is usually added..

- Those who have red flag signs like raised d diamer / SpO2 less than 88% , neutrophil/ lymphocyte ratio greater than 3.5 are given Steroid ( methylprednisolone)

- Pts with increasing symptoms recieve iv antibiotics with increasing spectrum/ efficacy.. Usually ceftriaxone , piperacillin tazobactum in that order.. Pts with severe LRTI /ARDS receive meropenam

- pts with comorbidities, with respiratory failure or those with raised levels of TROP I , LDH, CPK MB, d diamer also receive Low molecular weight heparin.. Heparin and methylprednisolone is now being included early in course of treatment if there is suspicion of pt detoriating..

- Many physicians are also including metronidazole..

- Doxy and Ivermectin are not included in protocols yet but few pts I know received it..

- All pts except those with contraindications receive HCQ

- Pts who develop ARDS , multiorgan failure and can not be given HCQ are given Lopinavir/ Ritonavir .. Oseltamivir is also widely used

- Many govt employees are distributed homeopathic medicines like Arcenic album.. I dont see it any more effective than placebo.. But I see no harm in using it..

- Severe pts receive cocktail of antibiotcs, steroids, anti coagulants and other supporting drugs like vitamins, antacids etc.. It is hard to say what exactly worked in each individuals.. It is likely that different pts are benefitted by different drug/ drugs..

- Positive cases are being reported from every corner of MH .. They are mostly people who travelled from mumbai and pune.. This is indirect evidence of community spread in these two cities.. Exact scale is unknown to me.. However mass antibody survey will be needed to know it and I dont think it should be priority now.. Govt is rightly trying to save as many lives it can..We dont have resources to carry wide scale testing now..

- Antibody testing should be priority in healthcare workers.. If a doctor knows he is already immune to infection he is more likely to devote his survices .. Health workers above 50 should be kept away from work as far as possible..

- Payment cuts of heathcare workers should not be done unless it is absolute necessity.. People are burning their blood in PPE in hot humid conditions that too without Air conditioning.. They deserve at least timely full salary..

Deans
BRFite
Posts: 1167
Joined: 26 Aug 2004 19:13
Location: Moscow

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Deans » 21 May 2020 11:02

suryag wrote:Sroy Sir you are taking offence where none is intended. If Mumbai and Kolkata are cities with similar density isnt it logical to expect similar numbers? unless of course someone in Kolkata has magically found a cure. Please reduce your sensitivity in general Kolkata is as much my city as is Hyderabad or BLR


I don't think any of us know why some cities have a higher incidence of the virus than others.
My city, Bangalore, has a much lower no of cases than Chennai (closest comparable city) or Mumbai/ Delhi. There is no lack of testing or any desire to suppress cases here. Chennai is (as per people with contacts in both cities) doing a better job of contact tracing and containment than B'lore, but has far more cases. While WB can be faulted on several grounds, I don't think its lack of testing (because the positive rate is very low) or hiding deaths (they now have the highest death rate). Telangana is by far the worst in terms of tests per million. or per positive case.

anmol
BRFite
Posts: 1822
Joined: 05 May 2009 17:39

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby anmol » 21 May 2020 13:23

‘How Could the CDC Make That Mistake?’

ALEXIS C. MADRIGALROBINSON MEYER
12:35 AM ET

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is conflating the results of two different types of coronavirus tests, distorting several important metrics and providing the country with an inaccurate picture of the state of the pandemic. We’ve learned that the CDC is making, at best, a debilitating mistake: combining test results that diagnose current coronavirus infections with test results that measure whether someone has ever had the virus. The upshot is that the government’s disease-fighting agency is overstating the country’s ability to test people who are sick with COVID-19. The agency confirmed to The Atlantic on Wednesday that it is mixing the results of viral and antibody tests, even though the two tests reveal different information and are used for different reasons.

This is not merely a technical error. States have set quantitative guidelines for reopening their economies based on these flawed data points.

Several states—including Pennsylvania, the site of one of the country’s largest outbreaks, as well as Texas, Georgia, and Vermont—are blending the data in the same way. Virginia likewise mixed viral and antibody test results until last week, but it reversed course and the governor apologized for the practice after it was covered by the Richmond Times-Dispatch and The Atlantic. Maine similarly separated its data on Wednesday; Vermont authorities claimed they didn’t even know they were doing this.

The widespread use of the practice means that it remains difficult to know exactly how much the country’s ability to test people who are actively sick with COVID-19 has improved.

“You’ve got to be kidding me,” Ashish Jha, the K. T. Li Professor of Global Health at Harvard and the director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, told us when we described what the CDC was doing. “How could the CDC make that mistake? This is a mess.”

Viral tests, taken by nose swab or saliva sample, look for direct evidence of a coronavirus infection. They are considered the gold standard for diagnosing someone with COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus: State governments consider a positive viral test to be the only way to confirm a case of COVID-19. Antibody tests, by contrast, use blood samples to look for biological signals that a person has been exposed to the virus in the past.

A negative test result means something different for each test. If somebody tests negative on a viral test, a doctor can be relatively confident that they are not sick right now; if somebody tests negative on an antibody test, they have probably never been infected with or exposed to the coronavirus. (Or they may have been given a false result—antibody tests are notoriously less accurate on an individual level than viral tests.) The problem is that the CDC is clumping negative results from both tests together in its public reporting.

Mixing the two tests makes it much harder to understand the meaning of positive tests, and it clouds important information about the U.S. response to the pandemic, Jha said. “The viral testing is to understand how many people are getting infected, while antibody testing is like looking in the rearview mirror. The two tests are totally different signals,” he told us. By combining the two types of results, the CDC has made them both “uninterpretable,” he said.[..]

Zynda
BRFite
Posts: 1846
Joined: 07 Jan 2006 00:37
Location: J4

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 21 May 2020 13:36

Dr. Ratnadip, thanks for your continuing updates...

COVID-19: Controversy on origin of virus resurfaces, thanks to a new study

The controversy on the origin of the COVID-19 virus has resurfaced, thanks to a new study that found the virus has an unusually high efficiency to bind to the human cells.

The modelling research showed that the COVID-19 virus was particularly well adapted to bind to a specific human protein (ACE2) better than any other species tested by the scientists.

"This could either happen by chance or by design. Either it was a lucky fluke for the virus to have such high human binding though it had never encountered a human previously or the virus was adapted to bind human cells, e.g. by human cell culture selection or genetic manipulation," lead researcher Nikolai Petrovsky at the Flinders University, Bedford Park, Australia told DH.

"Our data does not distinguish between any of these possibilities, and nor does any other data that exists. So both possibilities remain open – this is why an enquiry is critical to try and identify the most likely explanation for the origins of the virus," he added.

The origin of the COVID-19 virus remained a subject of intense speculation from the very beginning with many political leaders including the US President Donald Trump claiming it was created in a top secret Chinese laboratory from where the virus was released in the wild.

The latest to make such an allegation is the Union Minister Nitin Gadkari who in two separate interviews last week claimed that COVID-19 was an artificial virus made in a laboratory.

However, the Chinese government and the World Health Organisation denied the charges.

"The WHO encourages researchers around the world to join forces to understand COVID-19 origins. Many researchers have been able to look at its genomic features - and they have found that the evidence does not support the idea that the underlying virus is a laboratory construct" said Tarik Jašarević, WHO spokesperson.

The Australian researchers differ in their opinion.

"There is no evidence that this virus came from either an animal or from a laboratory, so we should either rule both possibilities out or rule them both in. As a scientist we have to say both scenarios remain possible, till we rule one out. This has not been done yet," said Petrovsky who is researching a vaccine against the pandemic.

The study is not yet peer reviewed and made public by putting it on a pre-print server.

Other independent scientists are of the opinion that while the current level of scientific studies indicates more towards animal origin of the virus, new scientific evidence can tilt the theory on the other side.

"The (Petrovsky's) research is an exhaustive in-silico analysis that gives important insights into the evolution of COVID-19. The work provides clarity to how adaptive evolution has worked leading to this pandemic virus," commented Shahid Jameel, an eminent Indian virologist who is the chief executive officer of the Department of Biotechnology and Wellcome Trust India Alliance.

Seeking an inquiry to establish the origin of the virus, Petrovsky said it was wrong to exclude a possibility when that had not been scientifically ruled out.

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 22277
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chetak » 21 May 2020 14:45

Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump
Some wacko in China just released a statement blaming everybody other than China for the Virus which has now killed hundreds of thousands of people. Please explain to this dope that it was the “incompetence of China”, and nothing else, that did this mass Worldwide killing!
6:05 PM · May 20, 2020

Karan M
Forum Moderator
Posts: 19453
Joined: 19 Mar 2010 00:58

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Karan M » 21 May 2020 15:23

Looks like the five eyes have decided that the Aussies will lead the charge along with the US.

Aditya_V
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11857
Joined: 05 Apr 2006 16:25

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Aditya_V » 21 May 2020 16:20

Deans wrote:
suryag wrote:Sroy Sir you are taking offence where none is intended. If Mumbai and Kolkata are cities with similar density isnt it logical to expect similar numbers? unless of course someone in Kolkata has magically found a cure. Please reduce your sensitivity in general Kolkata is as much my city as is Hyderabad or BLR


I don't think any of us know why some cities have a higher incidence of the virus than others.
My city, Bangalore, has a much lower no of cases than Chennai (closest comparable city) or Mumbai/ Delhi. There is no lack of testing or any desire to suppress cases here. Chennai is (as per people with contacts in both cities) doing a better job of contact tracing and containment than B'lore, but has far more cases. While WB can be faulted on several grounds, I don't think its lack of testing (because the positive rate is very low) or hiding deaths (they now have the highest death rate). Telangana is by far the worst in terms of tests per million. or per positive case.


Tn has the highest testing of COvid 19 in the country and hence most cases reported

https://nhmtn.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/095ad0a1c0254b058fa36b32d1ab1977

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 22277
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chetak » 21 May 2020 17:05

Karan M wrote:Looks like the five eyes have decided that the Aussies will lead the charge along with the US.


looks like the khunnas of the OBOR is playing some part in this


Over 100 states have signed up to support australia’s call for an international COVID-19 inquiry at the World Health Assembly.

The EU draft resolution now has 116 co-sponsors, after the entire African Group & its member states joined the initial 62 countries


Image

arvin
BRFite
Posts: 347
Joined: 17 Aug 2016 21:26

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby arvin » 21 May 2020 17:21

Among India's neighbours Burma, Nepal, Iran , sri lanka Afganistan and Toilet missing.

Rsatchi
BRFite
Posts: 687
Joined: 04 Aug 2019 22:03

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Rsatchi » 21 May 2020 17:37

arvin wrote:Among India's neighbours Burma, Nepal, Iran , sri lanka Afganistan and Toilet missing.

All being black-mailed.
But some one has to remind them Gabbar ka dialogue : 'Jo dhar gaya Samjo vo mar gaya' :lol: :lol:

schinnas
BRFite
Posts: 1579
Joined: 11 Jun 2009 09:44

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby schinnas » 21 May 2020 18:11

Test per million is an utterly meaningless metric used by ignorant reporters who do not understand ABC of statistics. Since only targeted testing is done, the key metric to watch out for is tests per positive cases. This is the metric (also called as test positivity rate) used by experts all over the world.

Primus
BRFite
Posts: 989
Joined: 06 Mar 2002 12:31
Location: Ground Zero

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Primus » 21 May 2020 19:01

To me the most important number is the community fatality rate, i.e. number of people dying from this with the total population of the area being the denominator.

Nothing is perfect, every statistic is only as accurate as the collection method and sensitivity/specificity of the test itself. Given these variables, and understanding perfectly that in different parts of the world these will vary widely - add government coverup and fudging of the numbers by vested interests - and there is no single metric that truly reflects the scale of this tragedy.

Even then, I would really be interested in looking at the community death rate, my feeling is that it will be the most important number.

DrRatnadip
BRFite
Posts: 530
Joined: 31 Dec 2016 00:40

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 21 May 2020 19:56

Primus wrote:To me the most important number is the community fatality rate, i.e. number of people dying from this with the total population of the area being the denominator.

Nothing is perfect, every statistic is only as accurate as the collection method and sensitivity/specificity of the test itself. Given these variables, and understanding perfectly that in different parts of the world these will vary widely - add government coverup and fudging of the numbers by vested interests - and there is no single metric that truly reflects the scale of this tragedy.

Even then, I would really be interested in looking at the community death rate, my feeling is that it will be the most important number.


I agree fully with you.. On this parameter we are doing much better than other developed nations..

yensoy
BRFite
Posts: 1670
Joined: 29 May 2002 11:31
Location: USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby yensoy » 21 May 2020 20:57

Aditya_V wrote:Tn has the highest testing of COvid 19 in the country and hence most cases reported
https://nhmtn.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/095ad0a1c0254b058fa36b32d1ab1977


Right, but testing has to be targeted and right-sized. If there are few additional cases with increased testing, then those additional tests can be deemed to be unnecessary. If we were to consider a 4% positive cases the right number for testing (i.e. we test 25 targeted individuals for every positive case), then TN has actually slipped a little in the recent few days, and should be testing more. MH, GJ much much more. In Delhi's case the number of tests per million of population is already quite high (approaching 1% of the population).

http://covidindiaupdates.in/testing.php has good graphics to understand where the states stand. We may be closer to herd immunity in some parts of the country - the low fatality rates and high count of asymptomatic cases indicate that on the average we may have good immunity, and/or the local virus strain is a benign one.

IndraD
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7255
Joined: 26 Dec 2008 15:38
Location: भारत का निश्चेत गगन

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 21 May 2020 20:59

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... oronavirus

NHS staff being enrolled to see effectiveness of HCQ in preventing nCV

prasannasimha
Forum Moderator
Posts: 1198
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 00:22

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby prasannasimha » 21 May 2020 21:18

Deans wrote:
suryag wrote:Sroy Sir you are taking offence where none is intended. If Mumbai and Kolkata are cities with similar density isnt it logical to expect similar numbers? unless of course someone in Kolkata has magically found a cure. Please reduce your sensitivity in general Kolkata is as much my city as is Hyderabad or BLR


I don't think any of us know why some cities have a higher incidence of the virus than others.
My city, Bangalore, has a much lower no of cases than Chennai (closest comparable city) or Mumbai/ Delhi. There is no lack of testing or any desire to suppress cases here. Chennai is (as per people with contacts in both cities) doing a better job of contact tracing and containment than B'lore, but has far more cases. While WB can be faulted on several grounds, I don't think its lack of testing (because the positive rate is very low) or hiding deaths (they now have the highest death rate). Telangana is by far the worst in terms of tests per million. or per positive case.

It false that Chennai has better case contact tracing- Bangalore's case contact tracing is very robust . I know from first hand experience

IndraD
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7255
Joined: 26 Dec 2008 15:38
Location: भारत का निश्चेत गगन

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 21 May 2020 21:25

This is perhaps the first article on long term impact of nCV.

From cognitive dysfunction to amnesia, confusion, chronic fatigue, weakness, loss of strength, loss of smell & taste, low exercise tolerance, impending doom & death , lasting for months after recovery from Covid!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... go-months/

While the vast majority of those who contract Covid-19 will make a full recovery, there is increasing concern about a small but significant number of patients whose symptoms persist weeks and even months after first falling ill.

These long-term symptoms are often “bizarre”, say experts, and range from strange pains and fevers to debilitating headaches and lethargy. They can impact those who suffer only mildly from the disease initially and there may be a link with exercise and the recurrence of symptoms.

According to the latest research from King’s College London, around one in 20 Covid patients experience long-term symptoms for at least a month, sometimes longer.

One in ten still have symptoms after three weeks, despite the median time for recovery for most mild cases being around 14 days.


Professor Tim Spector of King’s College heads the team which has developed the UK’s biggest symptom tracking app and believes the long-term impact of the virus is being underestimated.

“The Government is telling people that this is just like the flu and only checking on a few symptoms, but it’s not at all like the flu,” he told the Telegraph. “For many people it can linger on; many people are saying they’ve had it for over three months now.”

Describing Covid-19 as one of the “strangest diseases I’ve ever come across”, Prof Spector is concerned that we are “underestimating” the virus by failing to collect comprehensive data on long-term, milder symptoms charted in the graphic below.


“There are people emailing me every day saying that no one is interested,” he said. “Nobody is giving any statistics on this and the Government isn’t collecting anything. Our app has been an alternative to this narrow view of the NHS 111 service, which if you ring up they only really talk about flu-like symptoms, but hopefully we are changing that.”

Calling the UK’s recent decision to add asomia - loss of smell - to the official Covid-19 symptoms list “long overdue”, Prof Spector adds that breathlessness and fevers are also recurring symptoms in patients struggling with the “long tail” form of the virus.

Paul Garner, a professor of infectious diseases at the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, is one of those one in 20 people still experiencing symptoms - over eight weeks after first contracting the virus.

“Normally with viruses you’re ill for a few days and then you get better, but with this one it comes back at you and slaps you around the face time and time again with different symptoms,” he said.

Despite just feeling “a bit strange” and tired during the first two days of experiencing symptoms, Prof Garner’s symptoms quickly progressed to a tightness in his chest and shortness of breath.

“I thought I’d just sit it out. My friend, who is advising the Government, said to expect to be ill for around seven to ten days,” he said. “But it went on and on, and I had this incredible period where I actually thought I was dying. I was lying in bed and couldn’t lift my arms; I started passing out while horizontal; my heart was racing. And then two hours later I kind of woke up.”

Still experiencing symptoms over two months later, Prof Garner took to social media to find others who are still struggling with symptoms of the virus and quickly found that he was far from the only one. After writing a blog post for the British Medical Journal about his experience, he received a “tidal wave” of correspondence, with many people saying they thought they were going “insane”.

“All the focus was on people on ventilators, but there’s this huge chunk of people like me managing at home, largely unseen,” he said. “The other thing I noticed was that a number of people didn’t believe that they were ill, but then you talk to them and they are going through hell in their heads. They think they’re crazy. So people are very lonely with this bizarre illness.”


Drawing parallels between Covid-19 and chronic fatigue syndrome, Prof Garner warns against taking strenuous exercise on the road to recovery. “Every day I woke up with a headache, and then on day 44 I started to feel a little better. I did a little cycle, then a HIIT class online, and then I was in bed for the next week. I don’t think people are aware of this relationship to exercise.”

“We know that from ordinary pneumonia it takes people several months to get better,” he added. “I think the important thing from my side was how many people there are like me, who’ve been really quite unwell at home. And we aren’t even a case on Government statistics - I’m not even counted.”

jaysimha
BRFite
Posts: 1180
Joined: 20 Dec 2017 14:30

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby jaysimha » 22 May 2020 12:56

DRDO develops UV disinfection tower for sanitising coronavirus-prone areas
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 503039.ece

Zynda
BRFite
Posts: 1846
Joined: 07 Jan 2006 00:37
Location: J4

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 22 May 2020 20:03

COVID-19 cases to peak in country between June 21-28: Study

India may witness COVID-19 cases peaking between June 21 and 28 with maximum daily positive cases to be around 7,000-7,500 in this period, a study by a team of researchers said. The study has predicted that confirmed COVID-19 cases reported daily will show a rising graph till the end of June.

"A clear downward trend in the confirmed cases is likely to be observed each day from the second week of July," Nandadulal Bairagi, a senior professor of Jadavpur University who was involved in the project told PTI. With measures in place and increased testing, a gradual flattening of the trajectory is expected within October, the researcher said.

The study was conducted by Bairagi, Professor and Coordinator Centre for Mathematical Biology and Ecology (CMBE), Jadavpur University, and five other researchers.

The study, based on a mathematical model approved by the Science and Engineering Research Board (SERB) of the Government of India, used deep machine learning algorithms along with a mathematical model for analysing and forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic in India with data being taken from the https://www.covid19india.org/state website.

"We divided the population of a designated geographical area into seven compartments based on the epidemiological class of Covid-19 and WHO prescribed minimum requirements of infection prevention and control (IPC) strategy to reduce transmission," he said.

Bairagi said, the total number of infected persons since the outbreak of coronavirus in the country "will touch the five lakh figure in first week of October and it will then start showing a perceptible declining trend."

One of the factors for this high number could be a large number of asymptomatic persons roaming around with each having the potential to transmit the infection to two-three more persons.

Just think of it. The contamination was contained after 76 days of lockdown in Wuhan, the origin point of the coronavirus pandemic. But we in India are witnessing a spike in active cases despite the lockdown nearing two months in few days time," he said.

In the absence of any specific drug and vaccine, India must continue its nationwide lockdown to prevent person-to-person transmission of coronavirus while looking for ways to start economic activities, the senior researcher said.

"Public transport must be avoided due to difficulties in contact tracing, random testing has to be increased and time for diagnosis has to be reduced for early detection...."

"We have recommended to the government that lockdown may be partially withdrawn in green and orange zones after the last week of June, but it must be continued in red-zone regions of the states concerned. Strict surveillance must be continued after partial withdrawal of lockdown to avoid the second wave of COVID-19," he said.{No way any person in Government especially States will be OK with the above. Also most of the red zones are the cities where economic activities are huge. Closure of these cities will hit revenue to States & Central Governments hard. Very little chance of the above happening.}

Asked about their observation on difficulty in contact tracing in case of contamination in public transport, he explained, "In a hospital or similar place where the persons who have contacted the infection can be traced, you can trace the origin and quarantine every body else who came in touch with the primary contact."

But in a bus or train, there can be many asymptomatic persons who will spread the infection and then get down at their stoppages, he said.

Apart from Bairagi, CMBE researcher Abhijit Majumder, Dr. Debadatta Adak of MBB University, Agartala, Dr. Tapas Kumar Bala of Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Kusumdevi Sundarlal Dugar Jain Dental College and Hospital, Dr Abhijit Paul and Dr Samrat Chatterjee of Translational Health Science and Technology Institute, Faridabad were involved in the research.

The interim report of the research has already been sent to the SERB, he said.

People who have WFH facility are lucky as they can minimize exposure chances at least till the flattening of the curve has started. Meanwhile, our immediate hope is to find a drug combo which will improve or increase recovery rate.

Dr. Ratnadip, please give periodic updates on Covid status in India. Per your knowledge, has any medical team outside of Bangladesh has been able to replicate the results they obtained by using a combo of Doxy & Ivermectin. The doc from Bangladesh had mentioned they are in the process of preparing a paper to release their findings (& hopefully exact drug combinations) & probably it is not out yet.

sreerudra
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 33
Joined: 23 Oct 2016 09:20

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sreerudra » 23 May 2020 00:09

https://www.bitchute.com/video/IB3ijQuLkkUr/

I want to hear from the members on what you think about this video.

saip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3786
Joined: 17 Jan 2003 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saip » 23 May 2020 00:56

sreerudra wrote:https://www.bitchute.com/video/IB3ijQuLkkUr/

I want to hear from the members on what you think about this video.

I think this was already discussed. She is an anti-vaxer and a conspiracy theorist.

IndraD
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7255
Joined: 26 Dec 2008 15:38
Location: भारत का निश्चेत गगन

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 23 May 2020 04:16

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 40-6736(20)31180-6/fulltext

Lancet publishes observational study (multinational registry analysis, whatever that means) demonising HCQ.
Summary of study > Benefit of HCQ could not be ascertained while HCQ was associated with arrhythmia

hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4688
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby hanumadu » 23 May 2020 06:23

MH consistently having more new cases per day than New York. They should at least bring laws to make wearing mask compulsory and fine those who don't.

Karan M
Forum Moderator
Posts: 19453
Joined: 19 Mar 2010 00:58

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Karan M » 23 May 2020 08:21

hanumadu wrote:MH consistently having more new cases per day than New York. They should at least bring laws to make wearing mask compulsory and fine those who don't.


MH sad to say, is a complete disaster zone with Mumbai the center. Pics show many areas, irrespective of community, full of people waltzing about, with only a portion wearing masks.

Perhaps time to just give everyone HCQ and hope for the best, given the ICMR results?

Deans
BRFite
Posts: 1167
Joined: 26 Aug 2004 19:13
Location: Moscow

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Deans » 23 May 2020 09:22

[quote="Zynda"]COVID-19 cases to peak in country between June 21-28: Study

There are 2 definations of peaking.
If it means (as I think it does in this case - and 2 similar projections made earlier in May) the highest number of active cases, then the highest
daily addition in cases would come 15 days earlier. i.e. between 6-13th June, we should have a peak in new cases/day of 7000-7500 which should
decline thereafter, reaching a point between 21-28 June, when recoveries (based on new cases 15 days earlier) overtake the day's active cases,
resulting in a fall in the absolute number of active cases. The projection really depends on when Mumbai, Chennai and Delhi hit their peak in new cases/day (all recorded their highest yesterday).

syam
BRFite
Posts: 732
Joined: 31 Jan 2017 00:13

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby syam » 23 May 2020 09:38

I think mumbai situation is more than little suspicious. even with poor infrastructure, every state in India managing the crisis very well. but somehow mumbai messed it up. very sad. they didn't vote for it, but reaping bad karma.

Shivaji
BRFite
Posts: 107
Joined: 19 Sep 2016 09:39

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Shivaji » 23 May 2020 11:20

Karan M wrote:
hanumadu wrote:MH consistently having more new cases per day than New York. They should at least bring laws to make wearing mask compulsory and fine those who don't.


MH sad to say, is a complete disaster zone with Mumbai the center. Pics show many areas, irrespective of community, full of people waltzing about, with only a portion wearing masks.

Perhaps time to just give everyone HCQ and hope for the best, given the ICMR results?


I had to move out one stranded relative from Kalyan-Dombivli (close to Mumbai) to Pune. I had applied for one-day pass and got one for travel last Sunday.

I was expecting strict checking at District borders but was not asked for the pass even once in entire Pune-Mumbai-Pune journey (may be because I had pasted pass print-out on car). I could see very little traffic on Mumbai-Pune expressway.

I was stunned to see very casual lockdown in Kalyan - Dombivli. It being Sunday, saw lot of people crowding meat shops, wine shops. Could see groups of people chatting at almost every corner. Police seemed to have given up enforcing lock down. With such kind of lock down for any length of time, I am not sure Mumbai region can ever be free of Corona.

In comparison, Pune seems to be following lockdown relatively well. From West Pune to East Pune, I could see very few people on roads.

Karan M
Forum Moderator
Posts: 19453
Joined: 19 Mar 2010 00:58

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Karan M » 23 May 2020 12:22

Thank you for the first hand info. Even the police have given up enforcing lockdown means that no better results can be expected. I don't think there is anything left but to mass deploy HCQ after increasing production proportionately.

DrRatnadip
BRFite
Posts: 530
Joined: 31 Dec 2016 00:40

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 23 May 2020 14:28

Karan M wrote:Thank you for the first hand info. Even the police have given up enforcing lockdown means that no better results can be expected. I don't think there is anything left but to mass deploy HCQ after increasing production proportionately.


I am in favour of expanding prophylactic use of HCQ, at least in areas where no social distancing is possible such as slums.. Benefits will be definitely more than associated risk.. We have used chloroquine extensively in past for malaria.. I remember giving it to every fever and chills pt even without lab confirmation of malaria in endemic poor areas.. Nobody used to check for QT interval then .. It was reasonably safe..
Covid seems bigger threat now as it is killing employment, economy and our future simultaneously..

https://theprint.in/health/hcq-breakthr ... se/427583/

hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4688
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby hanumadu » 23 May 2020 14:39

Almost 7000 (6700) new cases today. Half of them from MH. 5 day avg of doubling of active cases reduced from 21 to 16 days in the past few days. I wonder if Mumbai is going for herd immunity. When are anti body tests being done in India?

Yagnasri
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9790
Joined: 29 May 2007 18:03

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Yagnasri » 23 May 2020 15:19

Being in the red zone, I stopped going out long back except for purchasing weekly vegetables and some items needed for me from the stores opposite my complex. But I see people on the road with masks all the time. No one cares and no one in MH cares. Rumours are all around. Mumbai is in serious problem and there is no end visible.

nvishal
BRFite
Posts: 832
Joined: 14 Aug 2010 18:03

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nvishal » 23 May 2020 19:29

Most of the politicians inside shiv sena are village people. Some are barely graduates for certificates sake but almost all are unskilled. Same with maha BJP, congress or NCP.

Much of the skilled(and non-skilled) workforce in maharashtra come from outside.

Many locals(marathis) from mumbai themselves have realised the incompetence of their leaders and have either left Mumbai or finding ways to leave.

----

Be aware that Mumbai is an unplanned city. The roads are barely straight. Buildings and houses have been built wherever possible disregarding basic maths. Countless shanties(jhopad-patties) exist in every town and city around the Mumbai/thane dist(whole Maharashtra even). There is one or two shanties outside every railway station. The maha politicians have carefully maintained these illegal camps because they house lakhs upon lakhs of cheap unskilled labourers which enables(powers) the local industry and markets. Chinese goods that arrive through the sea ports are distributed further towards jharkhand, mp etc. Many of these labourers have fled now making it difficult for industries to run at full capacity. It is difficult to say for sure whether local marathis can fill the massive gap left by these north Indian labourers. The income gap is very huge in Mumbai and I think it has already reached its peak in the early 2010s. Someone like yogi might have already seen an opportunity in this crisis.

Manish_P
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2281
Joined: 25 Mar 2010 17:34

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Manish_P » 23 May 2020 20:51

Speaking of Mumbai

Here's why city local trains are running jam-packed during lockdown

Image

As railway workshops and maintenance shed opened following the gradual lifting of lockdown, trade unions have alleged that local trains run for internal movement of staff are functioning jam-packed without any physical distancing.

A few videos have gone viral on social media showing employees wearing masks but sitting very close to each other.

"COVID-19 has hit Mumbai hard and such things will prove very dangerous," an employee said. He was, however, unable to verify the videos.

"We have already raised the issue of staggering duty hours, inadequate transport facility and further, we have forecasted serious repercussions if the divisions continue to call staff in full strength. We have sought immediate intervention of the General Manager to address this issue, but we not received any reply yet," National Railway Mazdoor Union General Secretary Venu P Nair said.

"Now, most of the branch officers have called for 100 per cent attendance at Matunga workshop and this is leading to crowding inside the coaches," he added.


Note - On the lighter side, being a mumbaikar who commutes (well used to commute) in locals everyday, the train shown in the image would normally be called practically empty :P
(Forum members from mumbai who are aware of super dense crush load will understand what i mean...)

DrRatnadip
BRFite
Posts: 530
Joined: 31 Dec 2016 00:40

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 23 May 2020 23:00

Received this from my brother (He is pulmonologist) regarding doxy/ ivermectin combo:

Is there any scientific logic/background for use of
Doxycycline to this study?
a.Antiviral properties: Doxycycline due to its Zinc chelating
properties can inhibit coronavirus infection in humans.
Coronavirus are dependent on Matrix Metallo Proteinases
(MMPs, they have Zinc) for survival in human cells.
b.Doxycycline has anti-inflammatory capabilities that helps in
down regulation of the NFKB pathway as well as a decrease in
levels of inflammatory cytokines such as TNF-a, IL-lB, and IL-6.
This property is independent of its antibiotic mechanism.
c. Doxycycline is also being used in treatment of complicated
Pneumonia & septic shock due to Acute Respiratory
distress syndrome (ARDS). Common in Corona/virus

He insisted that there is no harm in trying this combo..However it is not included in any official protocol in India..

sreerudra
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 33
Joined: 23 Oct 2016 09:20

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sreerudra » 23 May 2020 23:35

I think this was already discussed. She is an anti-vaxer and a conspiracy theorist.[/quote]

Thank you sai garu!

Zynda
BRFite
Posts: 1846
Joined: 07 Jan 2006 00:37
Location: J4

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 23 May 2020 23:40

DrRatnadip wrote:Received this from my brother (He is pulmonologist) regarding doxy/ ivermectin combo:

Is there any scientific logic/background for use of
Doxycycline to this study?
a.Antiviral properties: Doxycycline due to its Zinc chelating
properties can inhibit coronavirus infection in humans.
Coronavirus are dependent on Matrix Metallo Proteinases
(MMPs, they have Zinc) for survival in human cells.
b.Doxycycline has anti-inflammatory capabilities that helps in
down regulation of the NFKB pathway as well as a decrease in
levels of inflammatory cytokines such as TNF-a, IL-lB, and IL-6.
This property is independent of its antibiotic mechanism.
c. Doxycycline is also being used in treatment of complicated
Pneumonia & septic shock due to Acute Respiratory
distress syndrome (ARDS). Common in Corona/virus

He insisted that there is no harm in trying this combo..However it is not included in any official protocol in India..

^^Thanks for this valuable piece of info. Do you mind if the above is tweeted? If the right people are copied, perhaps we can elicit a reply/answer to why the combo is not being pursued.

I am not on Twitter but can ask others to tweet.

DrRatnadip
BRFite
Posts: 530
Joined: 31 Dec 2016 00:40

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 23 May 2020 23:59

Zynda wrote:
DrRatnadip wrote:Received this from my brother (He is pulmonologist) regarding doxy/ ivermectin combo:

Is there any scientific logic/background for use of
Doxycycline to this study?
a.Antiviral properties: Doxycycline due to its Zinc chelating
properties can inhibit coronavirus infection in humans.
Coronavirus are dependent on Matrix Metallo Proteinases
(MMPs, they have Zinc) for survival in human cells.
b.Doxycycline has anti-inflammatory capabilities that helps in
down regulation of the NFKB pathway as well as a decrease in
levels of inflammatory cytokines such as TNF-a, IL-lB, and IL-6.
This property is independent of its antibiotic mechanism.
c. Doxycycline is also being used in treatment of complicated
Pneumonia & septic shock due to Acute Respiratory
distress syndrome (ARDS). Common in Corona/virus

He insisted that there is no harm in trying this combo..However it is not included in any official protocol in India..

^^Thanks for this valuable piece of info. Do you mind if the above is tweeted? If the right people are copied, perhaps we can elicit a reply/answer to why the combo is not being pursued.

I am not on Twitter but can ask others to tweet.


This info should be already available on net i guess.. You are free to tweet sir..

DrRatnadip
BRFite
Posts: 530
Joined: 31 Dec 2016 00:40

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 24 May 2020 00:24

https://health.economictimes.indiatimes ... e/75911818

Indian govt is expanding use of HCQ in healthcare workers...

IndraD
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7255
Joined: 26 Dec 2008 15:38
Location: भारत का निश्चेत गगन

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 24 May 2020 01:22

unfortunate news of doctors dying of nCV in India

Illustrious ex HOD of resp medicine, Dr J N Pandey, AIIMS died of nCV https://healthwire.co/former-head-of-me ... -covid-19/

https://punemirror.indiatimes.com/pune/ ... 904244.cms
Pune physician dies

Mumbai doctor dies of nCV https://www.hindustantimes.com/mumbai-n ... w2xdM.html (ambulance could not arrive!)

MP doctor dies of nCV https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cit ... CitiesNews


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: ssaravanan and 22 guests