Bart S wrote:GJ seems to have a severe administrative failure with one hospital alone having 800+ deaths.
This is a special community hospital. Special community needs to come out of their ghettoized outlook. 80% of GJ cases are in Ahmedabad and it is concentrated special community wards.
Sad reality, but once stones start flying., It is difficult to convince your local health worker to put their lives at risk against stones, thook (spits) to even test.
Those thookars seriously made the problem much worse in India. Yesterday was ~8000 cases and 269 deaths countrywide. India could have got this under control a month ago. Instead lockdowns have to keep getting extended.
Question is why there is higher CFR in a special community.
My guess is, severity of disease (and hence death rate) correlates very well with exposure. Milder exposures result in less severe disease, if your cultural habits make sure you get multiple exposures every day, then.... My own personal theory is that's what went wrong in kissing cultures like Spain, Italy, and France. Thankfully, all of those countries are on the downswing now. Seems to be the same in the UK.
Thookar... mere tann ko... kiya tune... kya ishaara
In 1918, communities which stayed isolated escaped the first wave relatively unscathed. When the virus finally made it to those communities, they again got away easy - maybe the virus had mutated by then. Hope that's the case in September, everybody is so focused on the current wave right now, September is 4 months away. However, Brazil is already going through its winter wave (it's nearly peak winter there), and it seems that the wave might be slowing down there as well.
Modi's strategy seems to be the right one, looking at the 1918 experience. Initial lockdown and isolation, get things under control, then work with empirical data to identify hotspots and selectively lock them down. Hopefully the second wave will be milder, and the overall death rate will be a lot less. It's true that lockdowns only spread out the area under the deaths curve, but this assumes unchanged virus characteristics. If the virus mutates into a less virulent form (most likely scenario with these viruses) then a lockdown might very well save a lot of lives. The second wave in 1918 was a lot more devastating than the first, but that is mostly attributed to the extraordinary conditions at the end of the Great War (later termed as the First World War) - and we don't have that right now.