Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2163
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby darshan » 19 Jul 2020 22:07

Many Covid-19 Patients Dying Of Unique Fungus In Lungs, Researchers Begin Probe
https://swarajyamag.com/insta/many-covi ... egin-probe
A team of researchers has for the first time discovered hybrid fungus involved in lung infections and are investigating the role of fungi in Covid-19.

Several Covid-19 patients have died owing to concomitant infection by Aspergillus.

Aspergillus latus, a species of fungus previously found only in soil or plants, has been found for the first time in a hospital environment by an international group of researchers.

Aspergillus latus, a species of fungus previously found only in soil or plants, has been found for the first time in a hospital environment by an international group of researchers.

The group sequenced its genome and discovered that it is actually a hybrid and is up to three times more drug-resistant than the two species from which it derives.

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4708
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 20 Jul 2020 00:23

The insanity going on here because of politics is beyond belief.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/18/covid-19-cases-us-icu-beds-south-west


Trump reportedly seeks to block testing funds as Covid-19 surges across south and west


* US logs more than 70,000 new cases a day as stimulus debated

* Senate Republicans frustrated by White House stance – report

* US faces terrifying autumn as Covid-19 surges


Jessica Glenza in New York
Published on Sat 18 Jul 2020 17.34 EDT


Covid-19 cases are surging across much of the American south and west, as familiar scenes of weary doctors and nurses in packed hospitals replay across a whole new region.

In Washington, Congress is gearing up to pass another economic stimulus package. Optimistic economists once thought such a package could be unnecessary, but Covid-19 is now expected to continue to hurt the economy.

The White House is reportedly trying to hurt any resultant bill. According to the Washington Post, the Trump administration is pushing to block billions of dollars for state-run testing and tracing, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and attempts to combat the pandemic at the Pentagon and state department.

The US is now logging more than 70,000 new Covid-19 infections a day, according to Johns Hopkins University, up from a low of around 20,000 in early June.

Nearly 3.7 million people have been diagnosed with Covid-19 and more than 139,000 have died since January, when the disease was first found in the US.

“People continue to regard the virus as a political scheme or conspiracy theory,” Dr Chad Dowell, a doctor in Indianola, Mississippi, said in a Facebook post released by South Sunflower county hospital.

“People continue to ignore recommended guidelines on how to help slow the virus’ spread. People continue to complain about wearing a mask. We’ve got to do better as a community.”

Experts consider rising hospitalization rates a likely harbinger for a surge in US deaths, which as a lagging indicator, have remained relatively low. In the last week, hospitals from Florida to southern California have filled with patients in need of intensive care.


wig
BRFite
Posts: 1861
Joined: 09 Feb 2009 16:58

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby wig » 20 Jul 2020 22:22

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/coron ... sts-115518


Oxford University coronavirus vaccine safe, induces immune response: Scientists - Results show strong antibody and T-cell immune responses for up to 56 days after volunteers given the vaccine

excerpts
Doses of the vaccine were given to 1,077 healthy adults aged between 18 and 55 in five UK hospitals in April and May as part of the phase one clinical trial and results, published in the ‘Lancet’ medical journal.

The results show they induced strong antibody and T-cell immune responses for up to 56 days after they were given the vaccine. T-cells are crucial for maintaining protection against the virus for years.

The findings are seen as promising, but experts feel it is too soon to know if this is enough to offer protection as larger trials get under way.

“There is still much work to be done before we can confirm if our vaccine will help manage the COVID-19 pandemic, but these early results hold promise,” said Professor Sarah Gilbert, co-author of the study.

Zynda
BRFite
Posts: 1900
Joined: 07 Jan 2006 00:37
Location: J4

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 21 Jul 2020 13:12

Where are we on Remdisivir ?
Posting excerpts...
While many citizens allege that the drug is not being used as much as it should be, the State Government says that they are in the process of ordering an extra 15,000 vials of the drug. Meanwhile, social media is abuzz with the non-availability of the drug, while doctors say that it is being used frequently on covid patients.

Dr CR Jayanthi, director-cum-dean, Bangalore Medical College and Research Institute (BMCRI) said, “It is not available in the market yet. The State Government has given it to three hospitals -- KC General Hospital, Jayanagar General Hospital and Victoria Hospital. We are giving it to patients as and when required. Remdisivir is being administered to patients with moderate to severe symptoms and we are giving Favipiravir to mildly-symptomatic patients. If we run out of stock, we ask the Karnataka Drugs Logistics Warehouse Society (KDLWS)."

Remdisivir in Karnataka?

N Manjushree from the KDLWS said: “We have Remdisivir in stock. We have placed orders for 5,000 vials. We have supplied it to all districts and to a few private hospitals as well. Currently we have 2,400 vials in stock and are procuring another 10,000 vials.”

The officials said that each vial of Remdisivir costs Rs. 3,100 plus 12 per cent GST.

Experts on the other hand, say that doctors need to ensure that fewer patients go on ventilators. An expert said, “Firstly, we need to do proning – a technique where breathless patients are made to lie face down, on their belly, so that they recover early. Both these drugs have to be given early so that it reduces the viral load, lowering chances of people becoming severely ill.”

The sheer numbers in our country coupled with low investments for decades is severely straining our resources. I do hope Cipla & other companies can step up their production numbers urgently to meet ever increasing demands of the above drugs. So, in Karnataka, I guess one cannot buy Fabiflu OTC. Need to check on this...

darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2163
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby darshan » 21 Jul 2020 18:36

Many facilities seem to be lacking patient tracking protocols.

HC orders for detailed report from Punjab govt after sons allege father was alive after body swap amid coronavirus outbreak
https://www.opindia.com/2020/07/punjab- ... igh-court/
Amidst the Chinese coronavirus pandemic, several cases of administrative negligence have come to light. Two brothers have now reportedly moved the Punjab and Harayana High Court after they were handed the corpse of a 37-year-old woman instead of their 92-year-old father for cremation. As per the report, Gurcharanjit Singh and his brother alleged that their father was alive and was being treated at the same Guru Nanak Dev Hospital as that of the woman in Amritsar.

The woman’s family cremated the body they had received without checking. However, the man’s family was shocked when they saw that the body handed over to them was not of their father but a woman.

darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2163
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby darshan » 21 Jul 2020 18:39

There are many out there that still wear masks with valves.



https://www.opindia.com/2020/07/n-95-ma ... h-workers/
The Director-General of Health Services, Ministry of Health, has issued a stern warning that the use of N-95 masks with valved respirators can be detrimental to prevention measures adapted against the spread of the novel coronavirus.

“The use of valved respirator N95 masks is undesirable to the measures adopted for preventing spread of coronavirus as it doesn’t prevent the virus from escaping out of the mask,” the Director-General, Dr Rajiv Garg, warned in a letter to states and union territories.

He also added that states and union territories should encourage their citizens to use homemade cloth masks, which can be made by following the guidelines listed by the Health Ministry.

darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2163
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby darshan » 21 Jul 2020 18:44

Airborne Transmission Of COVID-19 ‘Distinct Possibility’: CSIR Advices Masks Even In Enclosed Spaces
https://swarajyamag.com/insta/airborne- ... sed-spaces
In a blogpost on CSIR’s website, Mande referred to findings of various studies and wrote, “All these emerging evidences and arguments suggest that indeed airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is a distinct possibility.”

The CSIR chief advised people to avoid large crowded gatherings, keep enclosed places like workplaces well-ventilated and wear masks even in enclosed spaces.

“In open spaces, the small-sized droplets get dissipated in the air very quickly. Moreover, emerging evidence also suggests that the encapsulated virus in such droplets also gets inactivated by sunlight. However, the concentration of virion-encapsulated droplets is likely to be higher in places that are not well ventilated,” he said substantiating his claims.

Zynda
BRFite
Posts: 1900
Joined: 07 Jan 2006 00:37
Location: J4

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 21 Jul 2020 19:54

Breathing is definitely an issue when wearing masks especially N-95 grade or Wildcraft style masks. This makes people to remove masks once they are at their desks, especially people beyond 45+. Further does one need to wear masks at home as well? Need to start reminding people to wear masks as much time as possible...

Masks with valves help in easing breathing...I think scientists/doctors had issued similar warning about wearing masks with filter valves in US as well. Still Trump is seen wearing a mask with breathing valve in public...I guess its baby steps with that guy...he graduated from wearing no masks in public to some masks.

Zynda
BRFite
Posts: 1900
Joined: 07 Jan 2006 00:37
Location: J4

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 21 Jul 2020 21:50

Let me ask a question about IR thermometers. Apart from using on forehead, are there any other places on exposed body (arms?) where it can be used and still get fairly accurate reading?

Jarita
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2361
Joined: 30 Oct 2009 22:27
Location: Andromeda

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Jarita » 21 Jul 2020 21:51

India must look beyond western mega pharma for answers. Several other countries are effectively repurposing drugs and using them without a huge cost impact.

https://www.trialsitenews.com/how-a-gra ... y-in-peru/

Perhaps Peru is the epicenter of the movement for off-label use of Ivermectin to treat COVID-19 patients. The doctors there swear by it. In fact, some of them curse the government for not embracing the anti-parasite drug sooner as they believe more lives could have been saved. With the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Peruvian authorities had no interest in Ivermectin. Rather, they leaned toward the emerging standard of care that was circulated in medical circles from the World Health Organization (WHO). However, when a group of Australians at Monash University and Peter Doherty Institute performed lab tests revealing that the economical and available anti-parasitic medicine absolutely zapped the novel coronavirus, a local inquisitive Incan inquiry commenced. This grassroots medical movement for Ivermectin as a treatment for COVID-19 in many ways has been driven out of Peru as the story continues to unfold.


Trials that repurpose generics are being deliberately botched up or hushed down by the lobby that see big money in new drugs or vaccines.

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4708
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 21 Jul 2020 21:55

Jarita wrote:India must look beyond western mega pharma for answers. Several other countries are effectively repurposing drugs and using them without a huge cost impact.

https://www.trialsitenews.com/how-a-gra ... y-in-peru/

Perhaps Peru is the epicenter of the movement for off-label use of Ivermectin to treat COVID-19 patients. The doctors there swear by it. In fact, some of them curse the government for not embracing the anti-parasite drug sooner as they believe more lives could have been saved. With the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Peruvian authorities had no interest in Ivermectin. Rather, they leaned toward the emerging standard of care that was circulated in medical circles from the World Health Organization (WHO). However, when a group of Australians at Monash University and Peter Doherty Institute performed lab tests revealing that the economical and available anti-parasitic medicine absolutely zapped the novel coronavirus, a local inquisitive Incan inquiry commenced. This grassroots medical movement for Ivermectin as a treatment for COVID-19 in many ways has been driven out of Peru as the story continues to unfold.


Trials that repurpose generics are being deliberately botched up or hushed down by the lobby that see big money in new drugs or vaccines.


I hope this really works. The more treatments the better. That said, once people start using it globally it won't be so cheap anymore.

Jarita
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2361
Joined: 30 Oct 2009 22:27
Location: Andromeda

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Jarita » 21 Jul 2020 21:57

^^^ It's a mass produced veterinary medicine. They pour it liberally over horses and bovines to get rid of skin parasites. I doubt if the tiny dosages for humans will make a dent. They give it to little kids for pinworms.
Similarly with HCQ and the steroid shots. All all inexpensive and being brushed aside.

DrRatnadip
BRFite
Posts: 568
Joined: 31 Dec 2016 00:40

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 22 Jul 2020 00:05

chola wrote:
Jarita wrote:India must look beyond western mega pharma for answers. Several other countries are effectively repurposing drugs and using them without a huge cost impact.

https://www.trialsitenews.com/how-a-gra ... y-in-peru/



Trials that repurpose generics are being deliberately botched up or hushed down by the lobby that see big money in new drugs or vaccines.


I hope this really works. The more treatments the better. That said, once people start using it globally it won't be so cheap anymore.


Ivermectin in combination with doxycyclin is routinely used in MH now.. They are perticularly helpful in pts with GI symptoms like loose motions, abdominal pain etc.. Many centers are also adding metronidazole , another cheap antibiotic in pts with early respiratory distress..
Use of tocilizumab has also increased rapidly.. It acts wonder in properly selected pts..

Gyan
BRFite
Posts: 1520
Joined: 26 Aug 2016 19:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Gyan » 22 Jul 2020 00:36

Whats the status on use of HCQ?

DrRatnadip
BRFite
Posts: 568
Joined: 31 Dec 2016 00:40

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 22 Jul 2020 00:40

Gyan wrote:Whats the status on use of HCQ?

still used prophylactically and in mild to moderate cases with good results..

vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4573
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 22 Jul 2020 01:41

DrRatnadip wrote:
Gyan wrote:Whats the status on use of HCQ?

still used prophylactically and in mild to moderate cases with good results..


One doctor friend I know who was using HCQ for 9 weeks got infected.

He stayed in the same clinic where he worked in Hyd for 10 days. He is fine now. He is back home.

He feels because of HCQ, his symptoms were mild. He said doctors who did not use in his age group were far worse condition when they were using it.

Ambar
BRFite
Posts: 1396
Joined: 12 Jun 2010 09:56
Location: Weak meek unkil Sam!

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 22 Jul 2020 02:03

Thank you for your insights DrRatnadip. How often do you see aged patients with co-morbidities do well after severe covid ? How long does Remdesivir take to act ?

DrRatnadip
BRFite
Posts: 568
Joined: 31 Dec 2016 00:40

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 22 Jul 2020 11:24

Ambar wrote:Thank you for your insights DrRatnadip. How often do you see aged patients with co-morbidities do well after severe covid ? How long does Remdesivir take to act ?


Many elderly pts ( around 60 %) , even those with comorbidities improve relatively well.. Pts who present late i.e those require ventilation within 24 hrs of admission have poor outcome.. I think so called " happy hypoxia " is at play here.. Pt dont realise about gross lung damage untill they feel difficulty in breathing..Such pts present with SpO2 less than 85%.. That is why it is important to monitor oxygen saturation with SpO2 probes..

It is hard to tell if Remdesivir is effective in perticular pt.. It is used in moderate pts who are already receiving cocktail of many drugs.. Those who are responding show clinical improvement in 24 to 48 hrs.. Improvement with Tocilizumab is rapid..

DrRatnadip
BRFite
Posts: 568
Joined: 31 Dec 2016 00:40

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 22 Jul 2020 12:34

vijayk wrote:
DrRatnadip wrote: still used prophylactically and in mild to moderate cases with good results..


One doctor friend I know who was using HCQ for 9 weeks got infected.

He stayed in the same clinic where he worked in Hyd for 10 days. He is fine now. He is back home.

He feels because of HCQ, his symptoms were mild. He said doctors who did not use in his age group were far worse condition when they were using it.


I agree.. With regular HCQ prophylaxis disease is milder..I am taking HCQ since pandemic started and by God's grace I haven't got infection, that too after constant exposure in Covid ICU.. Risk in ICU is more even with PPE as procedures like intubation, tracheostomy, ICD placement constantly generate infected aerosols..

IndraD
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7269
Joined: 26 Dec 2008 15:38
Location: भारत का निश्चेत गगन

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 22 Jul 2020 13:27

Zynda wrote:
chola wrote:I need to find a picture of this guy.

Image

we use this darth vader mask in theatre on covid theatre lists...what is he doing with this..with people around in clothes mask that too w/o nose covered :eek:

nam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3671
Joined: 05 Jan 2017 20:48

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 22 Jul 2020 14:37

DrRatnadip wrote:Many elderly pts ( around 60 %) , even those with comorbidities improve relatively well.. Pts who present late i.e those require ventilation within 24 hrs of admission have poor outcome.. I think so called " happy hypoxia " is at play here.. Pt dont realise about gross lung damage untill they feel difficulty in breathing..Such pts present with SpO2 less than 85%.. That is why it is important to monitor oxygen saturation with SpO2 probes..



Would using a Pulse oximeter help in early warning?

DrRatnadip
BRFite
Posts: 568
Joined: 31 Dec 2016 00:40

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 22 Jul 2020 15:02

nam wrote:
DrRatnadip wrote:Many elderly pts ( around 60 %) , even those with comorbidities improve relatively well.. Pts who present late i.e those require ventilation within 24 hrs of admission have poor outcome.. I think so called " happy hypoxia " is at play here.. Pt dont realise about gross lung damage untill they feel difficulty in breathing..Such pts present with SpO2 less than 85%.. That is why it is important to monitor oxygen saturation with SpO2 probes..



Would using a Pulse oximeter help in early warning?

Yes..

DrRatnadip
BRFite
Posts: 568
Joined: 31 Dec 2016 00:40

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 22 Jul 2020 15:05

nam wrote:
DrRatnadip wrote:Many elderly pts ( around 60 %) , even those with comorbidities improve relatively well.. Pts who present late i.e those require ventilation within 24 hrs of admission have poor outcome.. I think so called " happy hypoxia " is at play here.. Pt dont realise about gross lung damage untill they feel difficulty in breathing..Such pts present with SpO2 less than 85%.. That is why it is important to monitor oxygen saturation with SpO2 probes..



Would using a Pulse oximeter help in early warning?

Yes.. Check it at rest and after brief walk.. If you get constant reading bellow 92- 93 then its prudent to consult a doc..

DrRatnadip
BRFite
Posts: 568
Joined: 31 Dec 2016 00:40

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 22 Jul 2020 15:09

IndraD wrote:
Zynda wrote:Image

we use this darth vader mask in theatre on covid theatre lists...what is he doing with this..with people around in clothes mask that too w/o nose covered :eek:


sir many non medicos are using these 3M respirators.. We have started using it since 2 wks.. I find it more comortable than regular N95..

nam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3671
Joined: 05 Jan 2017 20:48

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 22 Jul 2020 15:52

DrRatnadip wrote:Yes.. Check it at rest and after brief walk.. If you get constant reading bellow 92- 93 then its prudent to consult a doc..


Thanks. Plan to get one for the parents.

abhishekm
BRFite
Posts: 117
Joined: 23 Jun 2009 23:28

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby abhishekm » 22 Jul 2020 17:26

DrRatnadip wrote:
IndraD wrote: we use this darth vader mask in theatre on covid theatre lists...what is he doing with this..with people around in clothes mask that too w/o nose covered :eek:


sir many non medicos are using these 3M respirators.. We have started using it since 2 wks.. I find it more comortable than regular N95..


I think the hon'ble Minister has been reading BRF. From TV visuals yesterday he seems to have given up wearing this ridiculous mask in favour of a normal one.

To doctors on this forum: do you recommend storing an oxygen cylinder at home in case of an emergency? A good chunk of ambulances in Bangalore including the recently re-purposed Tempo Travellers don't have oxygen cylinders.

As symptomatic patients, often breathless, spend hours rushing from one hospital to another for admission an extra oxygen cylinder from which O2 can be administered by paramedics sounds like a sensible if expensive life saving solution...

IndraD
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7269
Joined: 26 Dec 2008 15:38
Location: भारत का निश्चेत गगन

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 22 Jul 2020 19:42

abhishekm wrote:To doctors on this forum: do you recommend storing an oxygen cylinder at home in case of an emergency? A good chunk of ambulances in Bangalore including the recently re-purposed Tempo Travellers don't have oxygen cylinders.As symptomatic patients, often breathless, spend hours rushing from one hospital to another for admission an extra oxygen cylinder from which O2 can be administered by paramedics sounds like a sensible if expensive life saving solution...

ideally answer should be no but reading how difficult it is to get to a hospital bed for a corona patient in India, would say yes

Jarita
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2361
Joined: 30 Oct 2009 22:27
Location: Andromeda

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Jarita » 22 Jul 2020 20:03

Ivermectin in combination with doxycyclin is routinely used in MH now.. They are perticularly helpful in pts with GI symptoms like loose motions, abdominal pain etc.. Many centers are also adding metronidazole , another cheap antibiotic in pts with early respiratory distress..
Use of tocilizumab has also increased rapidly.. It acts wonder in properly selected pts..


The most exasperating group is Whatsapp Indian's who are so negative about the government and Indian medicos. An unproven therapy like Remsdesivir will be celebrated and they are waiting with bated breath for heavy duty vaccines while the humble repurposed generics are pooh poohed at. I have heard wild rubbish like HCQ does not work and Modi is imposing it. This is especially from states like WB and Telangana. West Bengal especially since TMC conspiracy theories are rife. When you quote Indian mortality rates vs the west, they go deaf.
The media is doing a great injustice by croaking about case count. They should use a simple metric of deaths per million to compare against global numbers. It might reduce the panic.

Just by way of context, India is 98th in terms of deaths per million. Some of it has to do with the experimental therapies our doctors are using and adjunct medicinal systems like Ayurveda. This is despite poor distancing and mask adherence and inadequate infrastructure.

3 Pakistan 26
94 Liechtenstein 26
95 Algeria 25
96 Guyana 24
97 Barbados 24
98 India 21
99 Gabon 21

sudarshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2345
Joined: 09 Aug 2008 08:56

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 22 Jul 2020 21:30

In India, the build-up is very slow. As a rough analogy, and for those who are familiar with the handicapped ramps in massaland - the plot of case or deaths build-up in other parts of the world like Italy or France or USA is like the steps to go up to a higher level, while the same plot in India looks more like the adjacent handicapped ramp for wheelchair access. In the western world, the case or deaths build-up happened within days, going from 0 to thousands per day. In India, that same build-up has taken three months. I'd say "slow-motion train wreck," except that it still seems like the actual wreck could be avoided in India by miles.

In Europe and US, the counts zoomed up with frightening speed for about a month, and then leveled off (plane taking off). In the USA now, it seems like there's a second zoom going on to a new height, maybe that will also level off.

The counts in India, by contrast, are like a gently rising hot air balloon. If India has to reach the same heights as other parts of the world, the process might take a year or so :-? . Let's hope it levels off at a much lower height.

Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8498
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Mort Walker » 22 Jul 2020 21:53

^^^The bad part about balloons is that they can reach very high altitudes. Hopefully, a vaccine and therapies will limit that altitude. The US seems to be a rocket where the 2nd stage just ignited.

sudarshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2345
Joined: 09 Aug 2008 08:56

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 22 Jul 2020 21:54

Jarita wrote:The media is doing a great injustice by croaking about case count. They should use a simple metric of deaths per million to compare against global numbers. It might reduce the panic.


Tell me about it, I've been arguing against case-count-induced panic for a while now.

Also, there is no evidence of any kind of resurgence in Europe, many of those countries have been open for more than a month now. Sweden and Belarus (lesser-known) never had a lockdown. Counts have been flat for a while, close to zero, in most of Europe. God knows what the USA is doing wrong, I'm not able to figure it out, although hard-hit areas like the north-east are still doing okay, again flat and close to zero with no sign of resurgence. It seems like Texas and Florida are driving the new zoom.

India is a puzzle. Everything seems to be happening in slow-motion, like the hand-brake is on all the time and there's some little obstruction below the accelerator pedal.

Mort Walker wrote:^^^The bad part about balloons is that they can reach very high altitudes. Hopefully, a vaccine and therapies will limit that altitude. The US seems to be a rocket where the 2nd stage just ignited.


Yes, from the plots, there's no evidence of slowdown yet in India, that's the part which worries me.

I encourage more people to get hold of data sets and do some plots for yourselves. This is the kind of analysis I was hoping to see from BRF from day one, but mostly we're getting link posts and passive consumption of media bytes. Once data sets become available, old mathematical models become passe (unless validated by actual data) and there is no need to blindly trust media any more.

Zynda
BRFite
Posts: 1900
Joined: 07 Jan 2006 00:37
Location: J4

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 22 Jul 2020 22:12

Case numbers become relevant for planning & allocation of resources. Panic is due to a large pool competing for limited resources i.e. low resources to population (cases) ratio.

IMO, vaccine is badly needed for HCWs...at least get their confidence & morale up...I believe one of the factors in BLR crisis is shortage of manpower in all aspects of Covid work...from contact tracing, testing, HCWs etc.

sudarshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2345
Joined: 09 Aug 2008 08:56

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 22 Jul 2020 22:40

If case numbers are good for planning, that can be kept in consideration by the planners, without having the media whip the general public into a frenzy about it. That would be an ideal world I guess, but this forum has always prided itself on being ahead of the curve.

g.sarkar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2479
Joined: 09 Jul 2005 12:22
Location: MERCED, California

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby g.sarkar » 22 Jul 2020 23:09

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... ne-us-deal
US agrees to pay Pfizer $2bn for Covid-19 vaccine doses by end of year
Pharmaceutical company to deliver 100m doses of vaccine but US could buy another 500m under agreement, Alex Azar said
Jessica Glenza and Associated Press, Wed 22 Jul 2020

The Trump administration will pay Pfizer nearly $2bn for a December delivery of 100m doses of a Covid-19 vaccine the pharmaceutical company is developing, the health and human services (HHS) secretary, Alex Azar, announced Wednesday.
There is no approved vaccine for Covid-19, but the government has provided financial support for five vaccine candidates. The agreement is part of a plan to ramp up manufacturing in the event a vaccine is approved. The US could buy another 500m doses under the agreement, Azar said.
“Now those would, of course, have to be safe and effective” and approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Azar said during an appearance on Fox News. The vaccine candidate is being developed jointly by Pfizer and BioNTech SE, and is still in early clinical trials.
The agreement is part of Donald Trump’s Operation Warp Speed vaccine program, under which multiple Covid-19 vaccines are being developed simultaneously. The program aims to deliver 300m doses of a safe and effective Covid-19 vaccine by January 2021.
Under the initiative, the government will speed development and buy vaccines –before they are deemed safe and effective – so that the medication can be in hand and quickly distributed if the FDA approves or authorizes its emergency use after clinical trials.
....
Gautam

Jarita
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2361
Joined: 30 Oct 2009 22:27
Location: Andromeda

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Jarita » 22 Jul 2020 23:44

There has been some resurgence of cases in Europe but it is limited and most likely because of the warm weather. The summer is the window of opportunity to control this and come up with treatment protocols. There is enough evidence that indoors air is problematic.

Also, there is no evidence of any kind of resurgence in Europe, many of those countries have been open for more than a month now. Sweden and Belarus (lesser-known) never had a lockdown. Counts have been flat for a while, close to zero, in most of Europe. God knows what the USA is doing wrong, I'm not able to figure it out, although hard-hit areas like the north-east are still doing okay, again flat and close to zero with no sign of resurgence. It seems like Texas and Florida are driving the new zoom.


The Swedish case is an interesting approach. They have had significant deaths per million but not half as bad as some of the other places. One of the whispered factors might just be genetics. No one is talking about it beyond blood groups but perhaps this virus gives some people a miss.

"When countries that had a complete lockdown and low numbers try to open up, many of them, they face outbreaks, and they will be terrified for a long, long time."


Eventually, we will have to live with this monster and many more pandemics that are likely to come our way (precipitated by climate change and our intrusion into natural spaces). We have to get out and work. Masking, prophylactics and distancing should become standards.

I wish we still had the other thread. This year is decidedly odd and we don't know what is coming next.
Last edited by Jarita on 23 Jul 2020 00:08, edited 2 times in total.

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4708
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 22 Jul 2020 23:45

In the end, while it sounds cliche, it is all about peaks and curves. You want low peaks and flattening curves. Of the two, flattening the curve is far more important.

High peaks are scary but if you can flatten the curve then you can solve the problem.

Remember how frightening the situation was in Italy months ago? They had a high peak (at the time) butvthen they crushed the curve. Look at them now:
Image

We are still peaking in India, we need to begin flattening the curve:
Image

The worst case scenario is when the curve unflattens:
Image

Let's face it, the only way to flatten the curve before a vaccine is universal and dedicated social distancing. Lockdowns are just enforced social distancing but there are places able to flatten the curve without lockdowns like Taiwan.

Hopefully, cases in India can peak soon and then go down like in Italy. In fact, Delhi is showing signs of this. The country needs to be united in applying social distancing.

sudarshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2345
Joined: 09 Aug 2008 08:56

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 23 Jul 2020 01:47

Hope there was some big-ass adjustment in India, till yesterday deaths were under 700, today it's over 1100??

Chola: those were the curves I was talking about, you can see the trends - Italy is flat close to zero; India very slowly but inexorably rising; USA on "stage 2 rocket" as Mort said. If you plot all those on the same plot, you will see the "airplane (Europe/ USA)" vs. "hot air balloon" (India) phenomenon, which I'm pretty puzzled about.

But try the daily deaths plots. Italy is still flat, close to zero; India is still slowly but inexorably rising; but the USA is flat (though nowhere close to zero). Stage 2 rocket has been going on for a month in the USA (WRT cases), still not showing up in deaths. Maybe it's because it's affecting younger people now, maybe it's increased testing, or the lag is that long (last one seems less likely).

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4708
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 23 Jul 2020 06:57

sudarshan wrote:Hope there was some big-ass adjustment in India, till yesterday deaths were under 700, today it's over 1100??

Chola: those were the curves I was talking about, you can see the trends - Italy is flat close to zero; India very slowly but inexorably rising; USA on "stage 2 rocket" as Mort said. If you plot all those on the same plot, you will see the "airplane (Europe/ USA)" vs. "hot air balloon" (India) phenomenon, which I'm pretty puzzled about.

But try the daily deaths plots. Italy is still flat, close to zero; India is still slowly but inexorably rising; but the USA is flat (though nowhere close to zero). Stage 2 rocket has been going on for a month in the USA (WRT cases), still not showing up in deaths. Maybe it's because it's affecting younger people now, maybe it's increased testing, or the lag is that long (last one seems less likely).


Sudarshan ji, from what I read, especially from Fauci's statements, the death rate in the US seems flat because death lags by weeks. The infection rate double on June 26 from around 25K to nearly 50K. On June 28, deaths in the US hit a low of 285. On July 21, it was 1116. It will be over 1200 on July 22. Deaths had been trending lower but is now definitely on an upward swing again.

Better treatment and a younger population getting sick also contribute to a lower death rate without doubt. But while the younger crowd is getting the disease directly they are infecting vulnerable older folks (who are not at bars and "covid parties") days or weeks after their own infections. Shedding period is an average of 20 days for mild or medium infection (not confined to hospital.) Also the disease is such that many deaths occur after a prolonged period of sickness. All this contribute to a larger lag in deaths.

The spike in deaths for India seems to be TN reconciling 444 previous deaths:
https://www.timesnownews.com/india/article/tamil-nadu-reconciles-444-unreported-deaths-from-march-to-covid-19-fatalities-tally-toll-now/625676
New Delhi: After admitting a possible mismatch in the Covid-19 fatalities earlier, the Tamil Nadu government on Wednesday said previously unreported 444 deaths related to the virus in the city have been added to the Coronavirus tally.

nachiket
Forum Moderator
Posts: 7726
Joined: 02 Dec 2008 10:49

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nachiket » 23 Jul 2020 09:19

One wonders how many such unreported deaths may be present in other Indian cities.

Anecdotal reports that I'm getting from family and friends in Mumbai paint a scary picture. UT is like a deer caught in the headlights. He had zero administrative experience before becoming the CM and he just wasn't prepared to handle this.

I recently heard of one case from my parents where one person was told that his father who was very old and in the hospital for unrelated reasons had gone missing. Now this person was suffering from a debilitating illness and could not move much. The family had not been allowed to see him because the hospital was treating a lot of covid patients. After the family used some political connections to get more info it turned out their father had died of natural causes but his body had been mistakenly marked as that of a different individual who had apparently died of covid. His body was given to the other family (all sealed and unidentifiable) to cremate, which they did. When the other family came to know of this they demanded the actual body of their dead family member. Then it transpired that that person was still alive and had actually recovered from covid. All the while his family members had been mourning his demise.

There are other such stories of absolute chaos in hospitals plus many in social media by people whose loved ones died after they could not get admission to hospitals. The full extent of it I believe will only come out months down the line after the pandemic is over. Fadnavis meanwhile is traveling all over the state trying to hold the government to account and make them release the actual data which they seem to be hiding according to him.

Jarita
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2361
Joined: 30 Oct 2009 22:27
Location: Andromeda

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Jarita » 23 Jul 2020 10:05

nachiket wrote:One wonders how many such unreported deaths may be present in other Indian cities.

Anecdotal reports that I'm getting from family and friends in Mumbai paint a scary picture. UT is like a deer caught in the headlights. He had zero administrative experience before becoming the CM and he just wasn't prepared to handle this.

I recently heard of one case from my parents where one person was told that his father who was very old and in the hospital for unrelated reasons had gone missing. Now this person was suffering from a debilitating illness and could not move much. The family had not been allowed to see him because the hospital was treating a lot of covid patients. After the family used some political connections to get more info it turned out their father had died of natural causes but his body had been mistakenly marked as that of a different individual who had apparently died of covid. His body was given to the other family (all sealed and unidentifiable) to cremate, which they did. When the other family came to know of this they demanded the actual body of their dead family member. Then it transpired that that person was still alive and had actually recovered from covid. All the while his family members had been mourning his demise.

There are other such stories of absolute chaos in hospitals plus many in social media by people whose loved ones died after they could not get admission to hospitals. The full extent of it I believe will only come out months down the line after the pandemic is over. Fadnavis meanwhile is traveling all over the state trying to hold the government to account and make them release the actual data which they seem to be hiding according to him.


Even if there are misclassified deaths from COVID-19, in a country like India where death certificates are necessary, excess deaths will show up and this number cannot be hidden. That is the reason why you see the sudden and occasional spurts in the death number as that is coming from adjustments based on excess deaths.
In most sane parts of the world the excess death number will eventually be adjusted. That is not the case with command and control countries like China and Iran.
I would say that the numbers in India are fairly accurate and the death rates are pretty low.


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Manish_Sharma, nam, ParGha and 43 guests