Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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sudarshan
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 04 Oct 2020 01:21

OK, sorry, will keep that in mind. But did you have to delete the data I posted also? They are from my own daily analysis, not from any link. I can post plots if needed, was just reporting the numbers I was seeing.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 04 Oct 2020 01:24

~73k new cases and 937 deaths in India today. It is the lowest number of new cases and deaths in few weeks, but ofcourse we have to be cautious because we've seen in the past the numbers tend to fall on weekends and picks up on week days probably because of late reporting at district level. Overall, few states including MH are showing a clear trend in drop of new cases but death rate remains a concern. KL just won 'India Today's rather silly sounding 'Healthgiri award' for best handling the covid pandemic in India ! This is on the same day KL govt announced a statewide section 144 to slow the rapid rise in cases which now has more active cases than GJ. KL also has the ignominy of a foreign nation calling out labs for printing fake covid results !

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 04 Oct 2020 01:31

Ambar ji, it's better than that. There's been a sustained drop (1/8th from peak) for two weeks in the 7-day avg. plot of case counts. It's *not* due to testing drops. Deaths are also gently dropping. And active cases have dropped 10% from the peak. This is the first (and only) sustained drop (more than 2 days or so) since this whole thing started (Feb./ Mar./ Apr.). Hope nobody feels that I'm jinxing anything, I believe staying positive and noting good developments when they happen, is a good thing.

Second wave might be starting down in Spain and France (been observing for a few days, so reasonably confident of stating this). It's been largely deathless, while the media has focused exclusively on case count. I'm reasonably sure that the total death count in the second wave would be of the same order (or less) than the peak daily death count (first wave) in these countries - will verify this with numbers. Australia - second wave is over (no ifs and buts here); Japan - almost so; Brazil has been trending down for weeks. USA is stable - that's the best that can be said right now.

Overall, it seems it was the unpreparedness of the response in Europe (also NY state in the US) that did most of the damage.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby disha » 04 Oct 2020 03:46

Personal account.

I did a coast to coast (US) flight and back past month. No direct flight to the east coast destination I needed to go to. On return came from NY, US.

NY has better contact tracing and requirement for quarantine. It is self quarantine. Due to the facilities available (like instacart to get the groceries online) it is easier to quarantine.

I had to fake symptoms to get myself tested. Testing was by appointment and is drive in. Test is simple PCR test by poking a swab through your nostrils. Results came after 5 days in NY and it was negative.

Masks throughout the journey. Going in the flight was packed. Coming out, the flight was half. Quarantine in west coast is lax. There is no contact tracing. Started showing some mild symptoms of cough and fatigue and got myself tested. Results came in 24 hours and negative.

My experience, avoid unnecessary contact. Wear masks. And maintain some distance. Masks are difficult for general public to wear long times. It is difficult to fall asleep and has other problems. But some mask is better than no mask. Hence if somebody lowers the mask, I am not judgemental unless the person is in servicing industry and is in contact with hundreds (flight attendants for example).

What the governments can do (both CA and NY)

1. Have rapid PCR tests. This is useful prior to boarding and after de-boarding.

If results can be done in 15 mins and even if it is not that reliable, it will weed out substantial +ve population from coming in contact.

2. Have stricter contact tracing. Contact tracing in west coast is a joke. East coast is no better but at least some attempt is being made.

Require people to isolate for 3 days. Administer another test. And if negative, let them move around.

3. Antibody testing should be made more available. It costs upwards of $100 and 3 days. I think general public will be ready to pay <= $30 and the remaining costs can be borne by the government and the insurance. This will also bring the cost down.

If PCR test is negative and if Antibody test is positive, let the person go back into the population. The virus is here to stay. As well learn to live with it.

Data from NY https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus-ny/ consistently shows that 95% of deaths are >50 years of age. Or 85% of deaths are >60 years of age. Care should be taken by retirees and elderly. Remaining population must be allowed to mingle freely with appropriate precautions.

And better data. Lot of governments are hiding data and not putting it properly. General public is not dumb. Do not treat them as dumb sheeple.

Why? This is the news medical supervisors need to read https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-10-01/covid-19-restrictions-bring-california-county-into-revolt

In just the past few months, a bunch of county health officers across California have been run from office. But what was happening in Shasta County felt to Pontes like a new stage of the crisis in governance. He thought it was “80-20” in favor that, at any moment, a citizen army would form, invade the public buildings, and perform citizens’ arrests of the five members of the county’s Board of Supervisors and any other government officials they could get their hands on. “Before Covid I felt I could talk my way out of just about anything,” he said. “But I had to ask the sheriff, ‘What are you going to do if they arrest us?’ He reassured me that he’s not going to take me anywhere.”


And you will find gems like this:

The whole thing carried a special punch because Carlos Zapata hadn’t been looking for attention. When Elissa McEuen first asked him to come to the hearing, Zapata had refused. “I’m not a meeting guy,” he said afterward. “I only went because I thought we were going to storm the building. When I saw it was just speeches, I was out of there.”


Please do not go :eek: on the general public. Some may say lives are at stake. For several livelihoods come before life. Ask me, I had to make that trip.

Post Script: I had a conversation with a nice, gentle soul (NG Soul). The person really cares and supports stringent measures of quarantine. Here is a shortened version of the conversation:

Me: I made the coast-to-coast trip. Was quarantined and both time tests came negative. There should be easing of restrictions with appropriate precautions and testing including anti-body testing.

NG Soul: You should not have even made the trip. Everybody needs to be in quarantine.

Me: But you do go to office 3 times a week.

NG Soul: I do take precautions. I am at the office because I am needed there.

Me: Even on a Friday? What were you doing at Friday?

NG Soul: I needed to hire for my company. This was important (BTW NG Soul also got a hair cut to look good for the interview)

Me: So you do not want restrictions on you since you take precautions but you want restrictions on others! Do you think they are dumber than you?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cyrano » 04 Oct 2020 13:56

Disha ji,
Me: So you do not want restrictions on you since you take precautions but you want restrictions on others! Do you think they are dumber than you?

This is the problem I see with many people in the sensible half even here in Europe/France.

Those in the other "idiot" half range from the ones who say "it won't happen to me" to "its a fake pandemic" and go about their merry ways. Until...

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 04 Oct 2020 18:38

Image

Prof Shamika Ravi
@ShamikaRavi

#DailyUpdate #COVID19India
How are active cases changing across countries?
1) Growing: US, Spain, France, UK...
2)Declining: India, Brazil, Peru...
3) Spain, France, UK now have more active cases than Brazil.
4) Peaks, Plateaus & Second waves.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saip » 04 Oct 2020 20:45

Looks like during the past one week our active cases have shown declining trend. But we may stil overtake USA in TOTAL cases and TOTAL tests by the end of this month while our ACTIVE cases may be only 50% of the USA, which is good.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vera_k » 05 Oct 2020 01:01

Influenza season is tapering off in most of India, and starting up again in the USA, and other northern countries. This likely means India will get over the first wave soon and the USA will start the second wave in earnest. There are some northern states in India where the flu season coincides with northern countries, and those states would be at risk.

Differences in Influenza Seasonality by Latitude, Northern India

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Mort Walker » 05 Oct 2020 01:19

Can a person get influenza and COVID-19 simultaneously where testing either one would miss both? That is a false negative for Covid and influenza.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 05 Oct 2020 02:32

Does anyone know what is happening with Phase 3 trials of vaccine in India (Oxford and Bharat Biotech)?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 05 Oct 2020 05:29

Image

Pfizer Anticipated data read-out is today (Oct 4)

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 05 Oct 2020 05:33

Third straight day that India has reported <1000 deaths. Again, we need to be cautious as the work week begins tomorrow after the long weekend if this is just reporting lag. India's numbers are heavily dependent on what happens in MH, if MH reports low numbers then India's daily numbers will also be low, and the last 3 days atleast MH has reported falling new cases and deaths. As Vera mentioned above India's peak flu season is between Apr-May to Sept, so hopefully the cases will subside further in the coming days.

I dont think GoI will wait for Oxford vaccine to finish their trials in India, as soon as it gets approval from EU and UK, i'd assume that India will allow mass production of the vaccine. Hopefully we will atleast begin administering the vaccine by March-Apr so that we are somewhat protected from Covid wrecking havoc again next flu season.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Jayram » 05 Oct 2020 10:31

Game Changer !!!
https://www.yahoo.com/news/indias-paper-covid-19-test-230147502.html
A team of scientists in India has developed an inexpensive paper-based test for coronavirus that could give fast results similar to a pregnancy test.

The test, named after a famous Indian fictional detective, is based on a gene-editing technology called Crispr. Scientists estimate that the kit - called Feluda - would return results in under an hour and cost 500 rupees (about $6.75; £5.25).

Feluda will be made by a leading Indian conglomerate, Tata, and could be the world's first paper-based Covid-19 test available in the market.

"This is a simple, precise, reliable, scalable and frugal test," Professor K Vijay Raghavan, principal scientific adviser to the Indian government, told the BBC.



India has the opportunity to show the value of this test, because it has such a big population and it's coming right at the time when it is needed," Dr Kissler said. "If their efficacy is demonstrated, it can have benefits that ripple around the world."

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Mollick.R » 05 Oct 2020 13:55

Trump’s Treatment Suggests Severe Covid-19, Medical Experts Say Many of the measures cited by his doctors are reserved for patients severely affected by the coronavirus.

By Katie Thomas and Roni Caryn Rabin, Oct. 4, 2020

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/04/health/trump-covid-treatment.html

Confusing treatment protocol followed ????
or Willful information obfuscation ? :!: :?:

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Mort Walker » 05 Oct 2020 20:14

^^^The head of state is going to receive more therapies than most people.

“He got the therapies that anybody going into any good hospital in the United States would receive today,” said Dr. Carlos del Rio, a professor of medicine at Emory University in Atlanta.


NYT is trying to make a political statement as opposed to factual reporting about Coronavirus.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 05 Oct 2020 22:39

But it has been an impressive recovery nevertheless. His o2 apparently had dipped to 80s multiple times, and administering dexamethasone indicates there must have been inflammation markers serious enough to immediately administer steroids that are usually given to patients in critical care units. Not many at his age with his comorbidities can bounce back so soon from this wretched illness. Just look at Amit Shah, nearly 20 yrs younger then Trump but more than a month after his discharge from AIIMS he still does not look well.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saip » 05 Oct 2020 22:52

AFAIK Heads of States DO NOT receive experimental therapies but Trump did. Whether you like him or not is not the point. He was used as guinea pig.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Mort Walker » 05 Oct 2020 23:19

As far as we know, only Regeneron is considered experimental In that it is in clinical trials.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby anmol » 05 Oct 2020 23:32

Ambar wrote:But it has been an impressive recovery nevertheless. His o2 apparently had dipped to 80s multiple times, and administering dexamethasone indicates there must have been inflammation markers serious enough to immediately administer steroids that are usually given to patients in critical care units. Not many at his age with his comorbidities can bounce back so soon from this wretched illness. Just look at Amit Shah, nearly 20 yrs younger then Trump but more than a month after his discharge from AIIMS he still does not look well.


Not according to the doctors treating him. It never dipped below 94%.

He is asked about blood oxygen levels @6:40 in the video.

https://youtu.be/ZtvoPNEIk3o?t=410

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 05 Oct 2020 23:37

Dr Sanjay Gupta's take on the o2 levels of the POTUS -

The President's vital signs
It's concerning that the President got so sick, so quickly. On Sunday we learned that the President had a fever and an oxygen saturation level below 94% on Friday morning, prompting his transfer to Walter Reed. Reading between the lines of what Dr. Conley did and did not say, it's possible that the President's oxygen levels dropped into the upper 80s. He received a low dose of supplemental oxygen with improvement in his oxygen saturation levels. He again had a drop in his oxygen saturation level to 93% Saturday morning. It is unclear whether he again was given supplemental oxygen at that time. He is now on at least three medications for severe Covid-19, including Regeneron's monoclonal antibody cocktail, remdesivir and dexamethasone.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby pankajs » 06 Oct 2020 01:46

Embedded PeePeeCee writeup ...

https://twitter.com/aparanjape/status/1 ... 6218066945
India's new paper Covid-19 test could be a ‘game changer’

...an inexpensive paper-based test for coronavirus that could give fast results similar to a pregnancy test.

"This is a simple, precise, reliable, scalable and frugal test"

Great news if true!

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 07 Oct 2020 01:51

KL not reporting nearly half of its COVID deaths. Somehow the below article slipped past Coupta's filters but yet..

https://theprint.in/health/kerala-not-r ... us/486368/

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby darshan » 07 Oct 2020 22:05

I'm still hoping that Navratri is done in traditional manners where puja is at the center.

Prime Minister to Launch Jan Andolan for COVID-19 Appropriate Behaviour
https://www.deshgujarat.com/2020/10/07/ ... behaviour/

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby shaun » 07 Oct 2020 22:31

Electronic Vaccine Intelligence Network (eVIN)
Team NEXT IASby Team NEXT IASAugust 4, 2020
In News- The Electronic Vaccine Intelligence Network (eVIN) has ensured essential immunization services during the COVID pandemic.

It is being implemented under the National Health Mission (NHM) by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.

Key Highlights about eVIN:
It is an innovative technological solution aimed at strengthening immunization supply chain systems across the country.
It has been used with the requisite customization during the COVID pandemic for ensuring the continuation of the essential immunization services and protecting our children and pregnant mothers against vaccine-preventable diseases.
It aims to provide real-time information on vaccine stocks and flows, and storage temperatures across all cold chain points in the country.
It has state-of-the-art technology, a strong IT infrastructure and trained human resources to enable real-time monitoring of stock and storage temperature of the vaccines kept in multiple locations across the country.
It has helped create a big data architecture that generates actionable analytics encouraging data-driven decision-making and consumption-based planning that helps in maintaining optimum stocks of vaccines leading to cost savings.
It helps in maintaining optimum stocks of vaccines leading to cost savings. Vaccine availability at all times has increased to 99% in most health centres in India.
Status of Implementation:
It has reached 32 States and Union Territories (UTs) and will soon be rolled out in the remaining States and UTs of Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Chandigarh, Ladakh and Sikkim.
At present, 23,507 cold chain points across 585 districts of 22 States and 2 UTs routinely use the eVIN technology for efficient vaccine logistics management.
Over 41,420 vaccine cold chain handlers have been introduced to digital record-keeping by training them on eVIN.
To support the Government of India’s efforts to combat COVID-19, eVIN India is helping the State/UT governments monitor the supply chain of COVID response material.
This platform has the potential to be leveraged for any new vaccine including COVID-19 vaccine, as and when available.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby suryag » 08 Oct 2020 05:40

Regeneron and Eli Lilly's antibody therapy seems to be quite effective. Hope these are pulled in to be provided to hospitalized patients in India

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 08 Oct 2020 21:44

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/08/coronav ... march.html

HHS Secretary Azar says U.S. could have enough coronavirus vaccine doses for every American by March

The Trump administration’s coronavirus vaccine program Operation Warp Speed expects to have up to 100 million doses by the end of the year, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said.
Azar said the U.S. is currently manufacturing doses for all six potential vaccines backed by the U.S. government across more than 23 manufacturing facilities.
U.S. health officials have been accelerating the development of vaccine candidates even though doing so could be for naught if the vaccine ends up not being effective or safe.


Azar said the U.S. is currently manufacturing doses for all six potential vaccines backed by the U.S. government across more than 23 manufacturing facilities. That includes vaccines from Moderna, Pfizer, AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson, which are all in late-stage testing. The U.S. is also obtaining the needles, syringes, bottles and other supplies needed for immunizations, he said.

He touted the U.S. government’s partnership with medical supply company McKesson, which was tapped as the main distributor for Covid-19 vaccines.

“We are immensely pleased with our success so far,” he said.

Trump has repeatedly insisted a vaccine could be authorized for emergency use as early as October with enough vaccine doses for every American by April.

Azar said Thursday that U.S. health officials believe authorizing a vaccine for emergency use is appropriate in “only specific circumstances,” where there are “sufficient amounts of vaccine already manufactured.”

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention outlined a sweeping plan last month to make vaccines for Covid-19 available for free to all Americans. In the plan, the CDC said it anticipates a coronavirus vaccine will initially be granted an emergency use authorization before a full formal approval.

Much of the guidance, but not all, described in the plan will overlap with many routine activities for immunizations and pandemic influenza planning, CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield said at the time.

When larger quantities of vaccine become available, the CDC said, there will be two simultaneous objectives: to provide widespread access to vaccination and to ensure high uptake in target populations, particularly those who are at high risk of death or complications from Covid-19.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ashokk » 09 Oct 2020 02:39

Centre to map out cold chain storage facilities for Covid-19 vaccine delivery
NEW DELHI: With the likelihood of a vaccine against coronavirus being available within months, the government has begun a massive exercise to map out cold chain storage facilities to ensure the vaccine is delivered quickly across the country.
A national expert group is talking to public and private sector entities in the pharmaceutical sector, food processing industry and agro businesses as well as food delivery start-ups such as Swiggy and Zomato to identify cold storages or fridges at the taluka level that can stock and distribute the vaccine, sources with direct knowledge of the discussions said.
A draft scheme for the vaccine distribution is likely to be released around the middle of next week, they said.
At least one domestic and three foreign vaccines are likely to be available to India in the coming months.
Most of the vaccine candidates will require a cold supply chain, with temperatures that can go well below zero degree celsius, down to -80 degrees celsius, though most need to be kept at between 2 and 8 degrees celsius.
The sources said that majority of vaccine candidates are in liquid form except a few freeze-dried products. They are to be administered through intramuscular injection/ route and requirement will be a two-dose regimen.
The majority of vaccine candidates would be available in multi-dose vials (2.5, 10, 20, and 50 doses per vial).
An estimation of cold chain space needed for vaccines has been made considering 18 per cent of the population would need to be covered within six months, they said, adding that both the current temperature ranges (+2 to +8 degrees celsius and -15 to -20 degrees celsius) have been considered for the scenario to account for adequate storage in either condition.
The Union health ministry has already initiated a cold chain augmentation plan to address the additional cold chain space required for the vaccine.
The sources said there will be a temporary requirement (2-3 months) of surge capacity for large cold storage at the state/ regional level to store and distribute large incoming quantities of the vaccine.
While most of the vaccine products under development require traditional cold chain temperature range (+2 to +8 degrees celsius and -15 to -20 degrees celsius), some products might require -60 to -80 degrees Celsius temperature for which support of the private sector which maintains such storage can be sought.
With multiple immunisation sessions getting planned, additional support by increasing the fleet of refrigerated vans to transport vaccines will support the mega immunisation drive, they said.
The sources said cold chain capacity needs to be augmented most in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Gujarat, Kerala, Telangana, and Delhi in that order. Other states that need to augment cold chain capacity are Assam, Jharkhand, Punjab and Odisha.
Taluka-wise capacity augmentation has also been mapped, they said. The sources also said some discussions on the pricing of the vaccine have also been held and it was being debated if they are to be administered free or for a price.
Earlier this week, Union health minister Harsh Vardhan said the government expects to receive and utilise 400-500 million vaccine doses for Covid-19, and cover approximately 20-25 crore people by July 2021. The Centre has also reportedly directed states to make a robust plan for vaccine storage and distribution by October 15.
According to experts, the safe delivery of vaccines for mass immunisation against Covid-19 is a massive challenge and that the country will need to significantly ramp up its cold chain facilities.
Pawanexh Kohli, the founding CEO of India's National Centre for Cold-Chain Development (NCCD), agreed that protocols will require Covid-19 vaccines to be kept between 2 and 8 degrees celsius, while in transport and storage until delivery.
While a bulk of the vaccines will be distributed through the Centre's Universal Immunization Programme (UIP) mechanism, experts also suggest that the government rope in private cold chain operators.
The vast scale of India's UIP is supported by more than 27,000 functional cold chain points of which 750 (3 per cent) are located at the district level and above. The rest are located below the district level, according to the government's comprehensive multi-year UIP plan for 2018-22.
This includes 76,000 cold chain 'equipment', 2.5 million health workers, and 55,000 cold chain staff, the plan report said.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 10 Oct 2020 06:04

Day 6 India has remained under 1000 deaths/day and <80,000 cases/day. I know high 900 deaths and high 70k new cases each day is nothing to cheer about but still at this point it is good to see some slowdown atleast. Argentina , France, UK and Spain though - yikes ! The charts look like the golden gate bridge, they are clearly in a text book 2nd wave .

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 10 Oct 2020 06:58

India has been trending down for two weeks now. Argentina has been like India, steadily rising - even the first wave is still going on there.

UK, France, and Spain have been practically flat close to zero for months now. There was a slight uptick the past couple of weeks or so, even that is now leveling off and starting to trend down. AFAIK they haven't had any hospital overloads, and the number of severe cases has also been not too bad. Their second wave, if at all, seems to have been very mild compared to the first, whereas the media has been making it seem like the world is ending in those countries.

Don't go by case counts, they are highly misleading. The plot below is current, as of Oct. 8th. The blips for Spain in May/ June are adjustments. Like I said before, for these countries, the cumulative numbers which used to be happening in 3 or 4 days during the peak of the first wave, now seem to be happening in 3 or 4 months.

Image

Data source: https://data.world/shad/covid-19-time-series-data

The guy above syncs his data hourly from Johns Hopkins CSSE: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 10 Oct 2020 08:19

Case counts are important as case fatalities is a lagging indicator. Spain's daily deaths are now above 200 for 4 consecutive days and rising, UK's hospitalization this week is up 40%, and yes, Argentina is a bit like India where the counts just keep on rising with no clear indication if its the first wave or the second. The one thing which makes me feel that there won't be a 2nd wave in India is because of our indiscipline, with the exception of trains and schools it is business as usual, packed restaurants, bars, streets, weddings, metro trains you name it. The terrible thing though is many in vulnerable categories like aged or people with chronic comorbidities may end up succumbing to the virus yet before it is done. Btw, IMA has revised the list of Physicians who have died in the line of duty, it now upto 515 as of last week. Again, these are reported cases and the Indian medical assoc. accepts that the actual numbers could be lot higher. One thing that stood out are doctors with Bengali last names , it is not surprising given how late WB govt was to even acknowledge the community spread of covid in the state. And given the abysmal infrastructure, one can only guess what the real count must be in West Bengal and other similar states.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 10 Oct 2020 10:06

Ambar wrote:Case counts are important as case fatalities is a lagging indicator.


Yes they are a lagging indicator. But by two weeks or so, whereas case counts in Spain/ France have been rising steadily for 3 months now. Is it possible for the lag to be as much as 2 months?

India first hit four digit no. of daily deaths on Aug. 9th (there were adjustments before which pushed the number to 4 digits, I'm not counting those). With the expected lag of 2 weeks between cases and deaths, and given the rise in cases from ~62,000 on Aug. 9th, to ~98,000 on Sep. 16th, the expected peak in daily deaths would be 2,015. If the lag were 1 month, the expected peak in deaths would be 3,720. If the lag were 2 months, the expected peak daily deaths would be 9,600. Daily deaths seem to have peaked at 1,200. Of course, differences in testing need to be accounted for, those are a lot trickier to do than they seem, and frankly, I have no clue how to go about that, so I'm leaving the analysis as above.

This analysis is based on case counts and death counts between Aug. 9th to Sep. 16th. What happens from now on is independent of the above - it is a separate dynamic. The key is that what was expected between mid Aug. to mid Sep., based on data from April to Aug., did not quite work out - the actual scenario was better than expected. And if one factors in lags of more than a month, the actual scenario would have been horrific, in terms of deaths. Again, "things could still take a turn for the worse from here" is of course a possibility, but it is a separate issue here-on, it doesn't change what was said above.

A similar case was observed for the USA. Based on these observations, it seems Spain/ France will not do significantly worse than they are currently doing, in terms of peak daily deaths. This is just data modeling, there could be vagaries and unknowns, not to mention (God forbid) evolution and development of a fresh and wholly different nightmare scenario, but I hope to be right on this (not for ego issues either).

Spain's daily deaths are now above 200 for 4 consecutive days and rising,


Daily deaths for Spain for the past ten days, based on the source posted earlier (Johns Hopkins):

Sep 29/2020---------0
Sep 30/2020---------380
Oct 1/2020----------182
Oct 2/2020----------113
Oct 3/2020----------0
Oct 4/2020----------0
Oct 5/2020----------139
Oct 6/2020----------261
Oct 7/2020----------76
Oct 8/2020----------126

Spain is one of those countries which reports an initial number, and then heavily readjusts and redistributes (both cases and deaths) in the coming week. Some days they report "0" numbers, and then make up for that in the next day or two. Which is why it is better to go by 7-day averages, even there, one has to wait a week or so to get a fuller picture until the readjustments are done.

UK's hospitalization this week is up 40%,


I take back what I said about UK earlier, that country is indeed still in a precarious situation, hope it works out the way it did for Spain/ France.

As for Spain/ France, we can wait a week or so and see, my guess (based on the data so far) is that they are past the second peak as well. UK still has some ways to go. This is not an ego issue (that I want to be proved right), it has to do with some deep questions I've had about media-generated realities, and whether the experts really know as much as we think they know. No disrespect to the experts, just that our knowledge is more limited than we think.

I try to see the positives as well, I just believe it's healthier that way. If the positive doesn't pan out and the negative again happens, well, find a way to deal with it, that's life.

The one thing which makes me feel that there won't be a 2nd wave in India is because of our indiscipline, with the exception of trains and schools it is business as usual, packed restaurants, bars, streets, weddings, metro trains you name it.


I'm trying not to be too hard on commoners in India, saar. Their compulsions are different, death by COVID is rather uncertain, death by starvation and loss of livelihood stares them in the face every day. The ones whom I have no sympathy for, are the party-lunatics in "advanced" countries, who crave their socializing and binge-drinking and just have to get their dose of it, COVID or no COVID. Of course, packed restaurants and bars in India are the same thing, but streets, metros, even weddings - I can kind of understand that.

The terrible thing though is many in vulnerable categories like aged or people with chronic comorbidities may end up succumbing to the virus yet before it is done. Btw, IMA has revised the list of Physicians who have died in the line of duty, it now upto 515 as of last week. Again, these are reported cases and the Indian medical assoc. accepts that the actual numbers could be lot higher. One thing that stood out are doctors with Bengali last names , it is not surprising given how late WB govt was to even acknowledge the community spread of covid in the state. And given the abysmal infrastructure, one can only guess what the real count must be in West Bengal and other similar states.


I agree, deaths of doctors could and should have been avoided, and the vulnerable could have been much better protected.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Manish_P » 10 Oct 2020 17:21

Grave problems as coronavirus fills up Vashi cemetery

Strict Covid-19 guidelines have led to a grave problem for a Muslim cemetery in Vashi as it has run into acute lack of burial space.

The graveyard has had to be shut, said Mohammed Siraj, senior member of the Noor-ul Islam Trust, which manages the graveyard.

“Since the lockdown began, we have taken over 140 bodies which were Covid-positive. We were strictly told that they cannot be disturbed for at least five years. Hence, we cannot recycle those burial spots to accommodate more bodies in future. Thus, we shut down our graveyard for lack of space,” he said.

Siraj said that a request to the Maharashtra government and the Navi Mumbai Municipal Corporation for another plot had not met with a reply.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SriKumar » 11 Oct 2020 21:13

It is odd that there is no news of any major vaccine trials in China. Maybe there is and I don’t know.
Russia, US, India, UK are all doing vaccine trials. China, with its Wuhan virology lab and many other labs, hospitals should have had something by now in trial double-quick time, given their poor record and minimal emphasis on human safety. I’ll bet they are itching to claim the ‘honor’ of first Covid vaccine in the world. They have had a need for being first as an H&D issue. Additionally they can sell it to all at a premium just like they did with the N95 masks.

Added later: maybe they are doing trials but secretly , easier to cover up news of any deaths or illness that can and do happen in vaccine trials.
Last edited by SriKumar on 11 Oct 2020 22:06, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 11 Oct 2020 21:28

Luckily for India, this is still the first wave. Lucky because, as it tapers down, it will be closer to Phase 3 trials or vaccine availability.

We could prevent a second wave. Despite the huge numbers, the peak in India was moved as close as possible towards the year end, closer to vaccine availability.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby williams » 11 Oct 2020 22:12

We should be studying Trump's treatment. A combination of early detection, overactive/precautionary treatment, and proper care should get people out of woods. Trump is 74 and overweight. The problem is, the same level of care or quality of treatment is not available to the general public even in masaland. On the other hand, there are therapeutic options available to get better. It is just a question of time and money.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 11 Oct 2020 22:53


sudarshan
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 11 Oct 2020 23:02

More on this "fatalities are a lagging indicator":

India is on a definite down-trend, both cases and deaths. The down-trend in deaths started happening at practically the same time as the down-trend in cases. Testing has been fairly flat, so it is unlikely to be a testing artifact. Several people here have suggested lags of months between cases and deaths. At the time when cases were rising again in Europe and the USA (but deaths were not), it did seem like a distinct possibility, and I too was concerned about it and felt that it could be the case.

Looking at the data, it does not seem to be the case, that the lag between fatalities and case counts is more than a week or so. If the lag were longer than a month, then deaths in India would be still rising (going on for another couple of weeks to a month), and would not have peaked at 1,200 a day, rather, would go on to 3- 4- even 8- or 9,000 a day over the next month or two (per my own reading of the data). The same seems to be the case with the USA, with the second peak in cases being observed *two days EDIT: weeks* before the second peak in deaths. Testing was relatively flat in the USA also (+/-15% of the mean), over the last month or so (though not before that).

However, the USA is heading for a third peak in cases now, it seems.

Concerns about the worst case are valid, but it's best to take one's cues from the data and not give in to fears.
Last edited by sudarshan on 11 Oct 2020 23:09, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 11 Oct 2020 23:09

Image

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 11 Oct 2020 23:10

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-54463280

Trump treatment and course of illness in graphics

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 13 Oct 2020 01:52

williams wrote:We should be studying Trump's treatment. A combination of early detection, overactive/precautionary treatment, and proper care should get people out of woods. Trump is 74 and overweight. The problem is, the same level of care or quality of treatment is not available to the general public even in masaland. On the other hand, there are therapeutic options available to get better. It is just a question of time and money.


This. 99.999% of the world's population wont get the level of care that Trump received. He had two of world's most prominent research centers and hospitals in the form of Walter Reed and Johns Hopkins at his disposal with near infinite resources. But with this terrible virus along with quality of care and science there also seems to be a huge element of luck. In case of Suresh Angadi and SP Balasubramanian there was no delay, both were near asymptomatic and got into some of the best hospitals in India but yet ended up dying. One possible explanation could be the strain of virus, maybe some unfortunate ones get a stronger strain compared to others.

The good news is (and i hope i dont jinx it), India seems to be holding the deaths under 1000 for 11 consecutive days now. All 3 worst hit states MH, Kar and TN seem to be reporting reduction in cases, in MH's case the fall in numbers is almost dramatic. I hope it holds and given our suffering the last 6 months i sincerely hope there isnt a 2nd wave in India. As i've mentioned in my previous posts, Apr-Sept is the peak flu season in India, so that could be one of the reasons for falling numbers. I hope the vaccine is ready or a treatment that can save most people is available by the time the next flu season arrives in April.


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