Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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saip
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saip » 23 Oct 2020 22:43

Daily testing during the past two days is over 1.4 million and the +ve rate below 4%.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Uttam » 23 Oct 2020 22:48

COVID-19 vaccine: Bharat Biotech to conduct Phase-3 trials in 26,000 volunteers

BharatBiotech,which is into developing Covaxin, a vaccine candidate for COVID-19,on Friday said it has successfully completed interim analysis of Phase I and II trials and is initiating Phase-III trials in 26,000 participants.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 23 Oct 2020 22:52

saip wrote:...


You can't go by daily testing values, those dip significantly during weekends and rise to catch up during the week. There was a week when they went to nearly 1.5 million, catching up from a low of 750,000 during the weekend. The 7-day average is currently 1.06 million. Divide the 7-day avg. of case counts by 7-day avg. of testing for a more accurate figure - currently slightly higher than 5%.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 24 Oct 2020 07:13

So what now? Is the second wave/spike along with the coming of winter and "pandemic fatigue" likely to make the situation a lot worse for Western/colder nations? Michael Osterhom from the U of Minnesota seems to thinks so - what is forum guru spidey sense making of all this?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 24 Oct 2020 20:15

Well, we just hit a third peak in the US. Over 81K new cases on Friday.
Image

It looks we will not have things under control over here until a vaccine.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vayutuvan » 25 Oct 2020 01:16

Source? Does it have mortality figures as well?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SriKumar » 25 Oct 2020 01:25

chola wrote:Well, we just hit a third peak in the US. Over 81K new cases on Friday.

It looks we will not have things under control over here until a vaccine.
...or use masks and social distancing. This has proven to be effective in drawing down the numbers of infection in many states including the worst-hit NY state, which was in a terrible abyss in Apr/MAy and there were able to pull out of it without a vaccine. The question would be: can we do anything to prevent its spread while we wait for a vaccine. The answer is 'yes'.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vayutuvan » 25 Oct 2020 01:49

Amber G. wrote:Prof M. Vidyasagar is world renowned and respected professor/scientist/mathematician (FRS, distinguished professor at IIT etc).. He is son of famous Canadian/Indian mathematician/number theorist M. V. Subbarao.

Manindra Agrawal ( Infosys Prize, Shanti Swarup Bhatnagar Award, Padma Shri) is of AKS primality test fame - (I have talked about him quite a few times in math dhaga).


I know. That is why some people doubting the team is so perplexing to me. In any case, whether their predictions turn out to be correct or not depends on how people on the ground are implementing measures. Both the officials and more importantly citizens themselves are responsible to make the prediction becomes a reality.

No simple model can capture undisciplined behavior. To model that, one needs to make the model itself stochastic.
Last edited by Vayutuvan on 25 Oct 2020 04:40, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vayutuvan » 25 Oct 2020 04:33

hnair wrote:I fully expect scare mongering around Deepavali super-clusters, “PM Modi believes in pseudo-science offered by right wing professors” etc by pharma/media


Prof. Manindra Agrawal was attacked on Twitter a few weeks back. I didn't realize that he is on this team along with Prof. M. Vidyasagar. Maybe that was the reason why he was attacked. The attack originated from a Twitter handle whose DP claims some NGO or some such "common good" worker.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 25 Oct 2020 05:23

Cain Marko wrote:So what now? Is the second wave/spike along with the coming of winter and "pandemic fatigue" likely to make the situation a lot worse for Western/colder nations? Michael Osterhom from the U of Minnesota seems to thinks so - what is forum guru spidey sense making of all this?


Not guru, more like shishya learning as he goes along, but I'll take a shot at answering, below.

Chola wrote:...


Chola saar, again, don't go by raw case counts, testing has expanded by another 25% to 50% since the second peak.

I got curious about this positivity rate, since that seems to be a better indicator of the severity of the peak. Note that this metric is used every flu season in the US at least - they track what they call fraction of "ILI"s (Influenza-Like-Illnesses). This is basically the fraction of folks who show up in emergency rooms, who are there because of fevers, chills, cough, etc. (influenza-like). The CDC also tracks the fraction of people who actually had influenza (out of those who seek treatment, obviously, the CDC has no clue how many people don't seek treatment and just weather it out at home). So when the CDC says "flu mortality rate of 0.1%" - that is an estimate from data modeling, and it is also some kind of average over many years - some flu seasons have higher mortality, some lower.

So I was trying to see what was going on with the COVID positivity rate, and comparing that with the curves for reported deaths in the US.

Image

You can see the correlation between 7-day avg. deaths, and positivity fractions calculated by dividing 7-day avg. case counts by 7-day avg. testing. (Note - this is not the same as "7-day avg. of positivity fraction" - that number will be somewhat different). For comparison, I also plotted the raw daily values of both parameters (bottom plot).

But the correlation is lagged (deaths lagging the swings in positivity fraction). So how much is the lag? See the below chart:

Image

It seems the correlation is max., when one considers a lag of around 15 days between positivity fraction and deaths. That seems about right.

So based on that, it seems, deaths are going to rise in the US for the next 15 days at least. The value of the 7-day-avg.-calculated positivity fraction today, and its trend up to today, seems to indicate the trend of the deaths curve 15 days from now. Kind of an advanced indicator.

Please note that between the first peak in the USA to now, the testing strategy has changed significantly.

I tried the same for India. In India, it seems like the phenomenon I speculated about before - viz. - "merging of three waves into one" - kind of spoils this neat correlation. I still see correlation, but there isn't a sharp peak in that "corr. coeff. vs. lag" curve for India, the peak is smeared out from a lag range of 10 days to 60 days.

Maybe other countries which show distinct waves would allow better predictions of what is going to happen with deaths weeks from now, based on the trend in the positivity fraction up to today. I'm thinking - Spain, France, UK, etc.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 25 Oct 2020 08:13

^Great work Sudarshanji - that correlation is a caution, can you find anything similar between case numbers and any of the other factors?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 26 Oct 2020 22:16

Cain Marko wrote:^Great work Sudarshanji - that correlation is a caution, can you find anything similar between case numbers and any of the other factors?


I'll have to think of what correlates with case numbers. Not positivity fraction obviously, since case numbers are an input to that parameter. It seems the above correlation also holds for Spain, France, etc., but because of the oddities in data reporting there, it's somewhat weaker. Japan or Australia might be better bets.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vayutuvan » 26 Oct 2020 23:02

https://www.medicaldesignbriefs.com/component/content/article/mdb/stories/insider/37952
Sensor Rapidly Detects COVID-19 Infection Status, Severity, Immunity (OCTOBER 26, 2020)

A new type of multiplexed test with a low-cost sensor may enable the at-home diagnosis of a COVID infection through rapid analysis of small volumes of saliva or blood, without the involvement of a medical professional, in less than 10 minutes.

The sensors are made of graphene, a sheet-like form of carbon. A plastic sheet etched with a laser generates a 3D graphene structure with tiny pores. Those pores create a large amount of surface area on the sensor, which makes it sensitive enough to detect, with high accuracy, compounds that are only present in very small amounts. In this sensor, the graphene structures are coupled with antibodies, immune system molecules that are sensitive to specific proteins, like those on the surface of a COVID virus, for example.
...


Original is reported here.

https://www.caltech.edu/about/news/caltech-researcher-unveils-sensor-rapidly-and-simultaneously-detects-covid-19-infection-status-severity-and-immunity

Now, Caltech researchers have developed a new type of multiplexed test (a test that combines multiple kinds of data) with a low-cost sensor that may enable the at-home diagnosis of a COVID infection through rapid analysis of small volumes of saliva or blood, without the involvement of a medical professional, in less than 10 minutes.

The research was conducted in the lab of Wei Gao, assistant professor in the Andrew and Peggy Cherng department of medical engineering. Previously, Gao and his team have developed wireless sensors that can monitor conditions such as gout, as well as stress levels, through the detection of extremely low levels of specific compounds in blood, saliva, or sweat.
...

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Rudradev » 27 Oct 2020 00:10

Hello, has anyone recently traveled from US to India (specifically Mumbai) and back? Not sure if there are any posts about this on the thread (or links to any resources where a comprehensive, updated set of requirements is listed).

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 27 Oct 2020 01:01

^^^ @Rudradev - I have not but people in my family and many people I know have. One of very good resource is FB (or whattsapp type) groups of our schools alumni - (IIT in bayarea) and there are others like "Desi's in xxx area). MEA and Indian Consulates (use twitter or email - if you can't find specific information on the webpages) are quite good too and people are quite responsive. Mostly travel has been quite smooth and hassle free (relatively speaking for 2020)
(If you have OCI, or US citizenship with a valid visa (tourists are still not allowed but visiting family etc are now ok) it has become quite smooth .. make sure you have negative PCR test (take a paper copy or photo with you) etc

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 27 Oct 2020 04:40

FWIW let me share three graphs - comparing covid related information for a few countries of special interest to me (where I have family). All graphs are re-normalized to cases/million.

(Data is taken from European CDC and online tools of "ourworldindata" are used to draw these graphs.)

Daily new confirmed covid-19 cases per million.
Image
India has reached the peak (September) and reputable mathematical models predict that this will dwindle close to zero by the end of February 2021 - provided the current precautions of masks and socially distancing are maintained - even without a vaccine and gradual opening up.

Total active symptomatic infections which peaked around 1 million in September will be around 1.06 Million by Feb 2021. This value would have been around 17 million if there was no stay-at-home policy in March/April.

For USA - Let me just say we are *not* around the corner.

New confirmed Covid-19 deaths per million.
Image

About 3 more hard months but by the end of Feb 2021 the worst will be over - even without a vaccine, provided we keep the present level of mask wearing and social distancing in the coming holiday season.
If we did not have a lockdown the number of deaths by now would have been around 2.6 Million vs about 100,000.

For USA - Let us listen to science

This is Case fatality rate.
Image
***
Fairy upset with situation in USA - there are death-threats against scientists. They just arrested a few lunatics who wanted to Kidnap and try/execute Ohio's (Republic) Governor because he favors masks. (Past two top scientists/health experts in Ohio have to quit because of death threats)

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 27 Oct 2020 09:59

sudarshan wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:^Great work Sudarshanji - that correlation is a caution, can you find anything similar between case numbers and any of the other factors?


I'll have to think of what correlates with case numbers. Not positivity fraction obviously, since case numbers are an input to that parameter. It seems the above correlation also holds for Spain, France, etc., but because of the oddities in data reporting there, it's somewhat weaker. Japan or Australia might be better bets.


@Cain Marko - that correlation seems to exist for all the countries I tried. Where the data are clean, like USA, Japan, etc., it is easy to estimate the lag factor just by looking at the peak of that "Corr. Coef. vs. lag factor" plot. By "clean," I mean - distinct peaks in the death counts and positivity fractions. The USA has three waves, which makes for good confidence in that correlation.

Countries where the data are not so "clean": European countries (I'm still trying to figure out some of their oddities in reporting - like France, Spain, etc.). India only has one distinct peak, but I'm getting more and more convinced now that this peak represents three separate, but merged waves. As a result, the lag factor is not so easy to estimate. But the correlation is there.

What this means is:

If one observes the curve of positivity fraction, estimated by dividing the 7-day average case count by the 7-day average testing numbers (again, this is not the same as the 7-day average of the daily pos. frac.), then one can estimate the direction of the deaths curves a couple of weeks from now. Note, one can't get the magnitude of the deaths count in the future, nor even the magnitude of rise/ fall. Just that one can predict whether, over those couple of weeks, the deaths count is going to rise or fall. I think this is still a very valuable planning tool.

I can put up more curves for other countries in the math dhaga.

Based on this, I'm going to try and predict what's going to happen in various countries over the next few weeks, as far as the deaths count goes. It's not just to see how well the correlation holds (though there's that too), it's also as a guide of what's to come.

For India, the next two weeks or so are going to see consistent fall in daily death rate. If people start messing up now (hope not), and if the positivity fraction starts rising again, that will show up after two weeks or so. IOW, the trend in daily deaths, for the next two or three weeks, has already been locked-in. That's my prediction based on the above correlation.

The US unfortunately is the opposite case.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 27 Oct 2020 23:25

One interesting thing about the case counts. While everybody has been talking about "exponential growth during the pandemic" - take a look at actual daily and cumulative case counts.

Daily case count growth was linear. This is after accounting for testing changes, which were themselves linear in many cases. In India, testing has been relatively flat for nearly two months. And daily case count growth is linear right now (just with negative slope). It was also linear when the slope was positive. The same seems to be true of the deaths count.

This means cumulative case count growth was quadratic (square of time) not exponential (e^time). An exponential curve will outpace any polynomial curve of any order, for a high enough value of the independent variable. With a quadratic, the exponential curve will overtake the quadratic very early on. So this isn't just an academic point. This pandemic seems to call in question some of our initial assumptions.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Mollick.R » 28 Oct 2020 15:49

5 states account for nearly 50% of new Covid-19 cases
Sushmi Dey | TNN | Updated: Oct 28, 2020, 13:36 IST

NEW DELHI: The Centre expressed concern over five states — Kerala, West Bengal, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Delhi — accounting for almost 50% of fresh cases of Covid detected on Monday even as active cases now stand at 6.25 lakh. Of this, 35% are from only 18 districts.



https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/5-states-account-for-nearly-50-of-new-covid-19-cases/articleshow/78902542.cms

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 29 Oct 2020 01:17

Image

Is this true? Are we at 6 lakh actives cases?


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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cyrano » 30 Oct 2020 00:30

France going into Lockdown 2.0 tonight.

French PM details new restrictions as country heads back into lockdown

French people will only be allowed to leave their homes for food shopping, medical appointments, pressing family reasons and to commute to work, Prime Minister Jean Castex announced on Thursday ahead of a new Covid-19 lockdown starting at midnight.

France goes into its second nationwide lockdown this year from Friday, amid a surge in Covid-19 cases that has threatened to overwhelm French hospitals.

Detailing the new restrictions, Castex said people will be allowed outside for just one hour of exercise per day and no further than one kilometre from their homes.

For every outing, people will have to carry a document justifying their presence outside.

Travel within France, including to holiday homes, will be prohibited, though borders with EU countries will remain open, the prime minister said. Visits to friends or family are also banned.

Earlier in the day, France’s lower house of parliament approved the new measures by a vote of 399 to 27 following a debate that was paused to maintain a minute’s silence for the victims of a deadly knife attack at a church in the southern city of Nice.

Under the new measures, French schools will require all students aged six and over to wear face masks in class, Castex said.

Until now masks were mandatory only for students 11 and older, but Castex told lawmakers in parliament that new efforts were needed "to protect all our children, teachers and parents."

Business allowed to remain open include garages, food shops, launderettes, opticians and newspaper vendors.

Hotels will be allowed to maintain a reduced activity for work-related trips.

Places of worship will remain open, but no ceremonies will be allowed, the prime minister added.

Lockdown until Christmas?

In an address to the nation Wednesday night, French President Emmanuel Macron stressed that, "the virus is spreading across France at a speed that even the most pessimistic did not predict."

The new nationwide lockdown will be enforced initially until December 1, Macron announced.

He said the lockdown might start to ease once Covid-19 infections fall back to about 5,000 per day from around 40,000 per day at present.

Macron sends France back to lockdown as cases spiral out of control

But the government's scientific adviser, Professor Jean-François Delfraissy, warned on Thursday that the lockdown may have to extend beyond December 1.

Speaking on France Inter radio, Delfraissy said the goal of bringing infections down to 5,000 a day was unlikely to be achieved by the end of November.

"By December 1, we will not be at 5,000 contaminations per day. I can tell you that straight away today. We will need more time," said Delfraissy, who heads the scientific council that advises the French government on the pandemic.

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"The scenario is rather to have this lockdown period of one month, to look at the different types of markers and then to exit this containment through, by example, a curfew that could continue through December, possibly covering also Christmas and New Year’s Eve, and to end it only in early January", he said.

France on Wednesday reported 244 new virus deaths over the past 24 hours, and more than 36,000 new positive tests.

(FRANCE 24 with AFP, AP and REUTERS)

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 31 Oct 2020 01:07

About 10 days ago, I posted here some summary of a mathematical model ( name "Super Model" - by GoI) for India presented by some of the brightest minds. Please see the post:
https://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewtopic.php?p=2465928#p2465928
(and discussion later).
For me that presents (all things considered) encouraging in the sense that we are seeing light at the end of a tunnel. Things may become a little less hectic by the end of Feb 2021.

In US and especially in my neighborhood things are different. Our state (Ohio) and US in general is not doing too well. Supporters of Trump are reusing to wear masks and similar commonsense procedures. Recently there was a plot by some people to kidnap and then put on trial/execute our governor simply because he was advocating masks. It is not a surprise that our cases are rising and in US is reporting highest single day cases since the pandemic began. Many states are on highest level of alert.

The model recently published in Nature is very similar to the Indian Model (SAIR) and let me just put one graph from that here.
Link: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-1132-9
Unless we in USA become serious about masks etc, we are in big trouble.
Image

Image

Also:
Image

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 31 Oct 2020 20:45

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/researche ... 9-patients

In the continuing fight against the novel Coronavirus, researchers have now identified a drug with the potential to provide treatment for Covid-19 close to a year after it turned into a pandemic.

The study, published in the journal Cells, found that the approved protease inhibitor aprotinin displayed activity against SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes Covid-19, in concentrations that are achieved in patients.

According to the researchers, aprotinin aerosols are approved in Russia for the treatment of influenza and could be readily tested for the treatment of Covid-19.


An approved aprotinin aerosol may have the potential for the early local control of SARS-CoV-2 replication and the prevention of Covid-19 progression to a severe, systemic disease," the study authors noted.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 02 Nov 2020 13:15

@Amber, it is unbelievable how quickly we have lost control again in the states. I've been in dread that it will spread to the Northeast and it has.

Everything that Dr. Fauci said in July and that Trump ignored and then attacked the medical profession for has come true. We have hit 100K daily cases:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-record/u-s-reports-world-record-of-more-than-100000-covid-19-cases-in-single-day-idUSKBN27G07S

A lakh daily cases and no end in sight. Complete FUBAR.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nandakumar » 02 Nov 2020 15:18

The NYT has a story saying that recent cases in New York are less virulent than the ones that surfaced in Spring and also went on to claim the turnaround time of recovery is faster and fewer case fatalities, too. If that is valid across the US then it is something to cheer.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby darshan » 02 Nov 2020 18:16

Anecdotally I can confirm the lethal strains seem to have moved on and so have the fear. What's left is of high infectious and less lethal. Everyone's been in relaxation mode around me. Businesses have also increased traveling. In general, there's an uptick in mobility and less worry. So far I haven't heard of any run on hospital or other medical resources. Desis who work in supply chain have not reported any big movements or scarcity either. Parking lots are seen full and pick up slots are pretty much always available. Lot of promotions also being handed out by delivery services which indicates that people have moved on. Driving around one can also see restaurants being occupied. I myself haven't opened local chinese virus page to see what's going on in almost three months. Local Indian stores are full of people with no one caring about keeping the distance and shopping vegetables at good old inch of a separation metric. WuFlu has become routine. If not worried about liabilities and increased cost, HR would even stop enforcing the usage of masks. Thanksgiving travel would be the next event to see.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 02 Nov 2020 19:11

chola wrote:@Amber, it is unbelievable how quickly we have lost control again in the states. I've been in dread that it will spread to the Northeast and it has.

Everything that Dr. Fauci said in July and that Trump ignored and then attacked the medical profession for has come true. We have hit 100K daily cases:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-record/u-s-reports-world-record-of-more-than-100000-covid-19-cases-in-single-day-idUSKBN27G07S

A lakh daily cases and no end in sight. Complete FUBAR.


While one can argue endlessly if US could've/should've handled the crisis better truth be told most of the world-class, free-for-all social medicine European countries too are seeing a dramatic rise in cases. Adjusted to per capita the cases are within 10% to 15% of US either higher or lower. Take France for ex : ~5k cases/day during the peak months of Mar and Apr, today it is close to 40k cases/day ! Spain ~10k/day in Mar and around 25k now, Belgium ~1500/day in March and a whooping ~20k+/day now ! You'll see that the cases per day in Europe is exponentially higher compared to their Mar/Apr peak, comparatively US has done a far better job containing the rise in cases in 2nd (or is it the 3rd ?) wave. Also, just cases alone don't mean much if majority are mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic , as in Eur, in US too its the young people who are driving the cases higher, so the CFR compared to the peak months is dramatically low. For ex: In Belgium where cases are around 15 times higher compared to their March peak, the deaths are half of what it was in March, you'll see similar trends in Italy, Spain, France, UK etc.

Boris Johnson's decision to impose another lockdown is silly and will ruin whatever is left of the British economy. Its not like the virus is going away come december. As for India, the economic activity is 95% back to normal, including 2000 people wedding receptions. Not quite understanding the government's reluctance to allow international flights when rest of the daily activities are back to normal. Public transport, medium to expensive hotels/restaurants, construction and commercial real estate will take longer to recover, but everything else is back to where it was pre-covid.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 04 Nov 2020 07:10

Effects of Navratri seem to be showing. The 7-day trend in both pos. frac. and deaths is on a pause now, from the steep declines seen up to Oct. 31st. Raw case counts are up 1.4% from 3 days ago, deaths are up 0.7%. It's not the curvature one would expect from an exponential function.

I think future chroniclers of this whole saga are going to be writing about the "strange case of India." Deaths and case counts going in lock-step, waves merging together, a densely-populated area with (so far) minor effects when the whole thing is normalized to population.

Oh, the correlations hold for multiple countries, it's fascinating to back out the delay intervals between deaths and pos. frac. and see how it works out for various countries. The ones where deaths are relatively less have longer delays, seems like the earlier mortality is reduced and the long-term deaths are the ones which drive the trends. It might even be possible to predict the magnitude of deaths for a couple of weeks (not just the direction) with a little careful analysis, but it will have to be done on a case-by-case basis for each country. But again, the data for India behave weirdly, there's something going on here which I can't quite grasp.

Like I said a couple of times before, there were communities which were spared the worst effects in 1918, since they were isolated during the first wave, and by the time the second wave rolled around, the lethality had reduced. This might just have been Modi's gift to India (may he reign in India for years and years, and in the hearts of Indians for eternity), with his prompt initial lockdown.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby jaysimha » 04 Nov 2020 14:58

SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY EFFORTS TO MITIGATE COVID-19 BY THE
OFFICE OF THE PRINCIPAL SCIENTIFIC ADVISER (PSA)
http://indiascienceandtechnology.gov.in/sites/all/themes/vigyan/images/covid19/COVID-19-25th-October-2020.pdf

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 05 Nov 2020 07:07

Re - my prev. post: There's this rise in cases and deaths again in India, 2 weeks after the peak of Navratri. Correlation not being causation and all, but it seems like the most likely cause.

Folks in my own extended family were seen (in videos) having a treat and a party, doing unmentionable and imponderable things with their masks instead of leaving them alone (on their faces) to do their work. Taking off the mask to talk intimately with somebody inches away, then putting it back on as a sort of fashion statement. These are the kinds of folks who would have a meltdown at the first suggestion, that they are in the wrong in any kind of way. Then they get back on FB and post with concern about the rising cases and deaths :evil:.

The curves are definitely rising again though. Still hoping it's some kind of temporary correction. Hope the revelers haven't permanently bent that deaths curve out of shape and mangled it. Those scientists were right to be concerned about the festive season. Have your revels, fine, but could you maintain some basic precautions?

I feel like using some colorful and parliamentary language....................................but I won't.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cyrano » 05 Nov 2020 16:34

Man is a social animal. If you take out the social completely, only the animal will remain.

sudarshan
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 05 Nov 2020 21:38

Sure, go ahead and socialize, being cooped up 24/7 is pretty bad for health by itself. Just maintain a few precautions? I got pretty mad seeing that video of how my extended family was behaving, wallowing around in close quarters, treating their masks like they would their dark glasses, brushing past each other and all that.

I don't think people understand what it is that masks do exactly. They pull them off at will (grasping the nose part), sneeze or cough into them, put them down on any old surface. For all I know, they might even let others handle their masks.

And people often wear the same mask for weeks, in office settings. Offices spend money and buy masks for employees, they mandate that no employee should wear any masks other than the "official" ones, but those masks are supposed to last the whole year! (That's all the office budget allows). So folks wear the same mask around for two or three weeks, keeping them in their desks (or on their desks), leaving them around overnight every night while they go home.

If masks need to be adjusted, it's best to pull them up by the straps, close to the ears. I see people just grabbing the masks just over the nose or mouth and yanking them up, no clue where all their paws have been before that.

Deaths seem to be going up again in India, so far the curve was well below even that Supermodel prediction, I think those scientists will have to start up a new phase in their model to account for the festive season and its aftermath.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby darshan » 05 Nov 2020 22:25

Om Shanti. You may achieve moksha. No Dharma left.

Denmark plans to cull its mink population after coronavirus mutation spreads to humans
https://www.reuters.com/article/health- ... NKBN27K1YV
COPENHAGEN (Reuters) - Denmark will cull its mink population of up to 17 million after a mutation of the coronavirus found in the animals spread to humans, the prime minister said on Wednesday.
....

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby darshan » 05 Nov 2020 22:49

Being an engineer here, I don't know if this is a click bait or a real concern.

Case study details leukemia patient who shed infectious SARS-CoV-2 for at least 70 days
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases ... 110420.php

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cyrano » 06 Nov 2020 03:19

Right Sudarshan ji,
I reinfected myself recently with common cold by absentmindedly reusing a mask that lay forgotten in one of my coat pockets. The cold was much much stronger the 2nd time, it must have bred into a potent dose of infection in that used mask.

Lessons learned:
In my family we use disposable masks and washable cloth masks. We are extra careful now to be sure to put used disposable masks carefully in the trash, by putting it in a paper bag/envelope if possible. Cloth masks are washed (with other clothes) at 60°C ASAP and not left around for 2-3 days until next mega laundry wash. Never use a mask that is not new/freshly washed. Change mask after max 4 hrs of usage. Put used cloth mask in a polythene cover immly and put into bag/pocket. Don't tug on masks unnecessarily. If you do, use hand sanitiser/wash face etc.

My kids grumble, and I rumble...

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 06 Nov 2020 06:20

darshan wrote:Om Shanti. You may achieve moksha. No Dharma left.

Denmark plans to cull its mink population after coronavirus mutation spreads to humans
https://www.reuters.com/article/health- ... NKBN27K1YV
COPENHAGEN (Reuters) - Denmark will cull its mink population of up to 17 million after a mutation of the coronavirus found in the animals spread to humans, the prime minister said on Wednesday.
....

And these are supposedly the civilized world

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 06 Nov 2020 21:00

X-post from US elections thread

saip wrote:Meanwhile daily covid cases
11/4/20 USA 108352, India 50465
11/5/20 USA 118319, India 47622
Trump done in by China Virus.
People who do not believe in Science die by it.


He almost did :roll: and I don't believe he's out of the woods there yet (covid I mean), especially if he's going to stress out about the grand "conspiracy" against him. Last time he had the karmaphala of being president going for him, so got the very best treatment on an emergency basis. If there are lingering complications from that, this time he has to rely on his billions instead.

Like a couple of folks said - if he'd sobered down after his experience with covid and shown some introspection and course correction, he might still have won. Instead he got even more cocky, not realizing how lucky he was.

But that's for the other thread, hopefully there will be some clarity now on how to get the US back on track. Deaths are still relatively flat, but if the pos. frac. keeps going up that's going to change in a hurry.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 06 Nov 2020 21:36

Trump's action or inaction has nothing to do with the rise in case count. It has been repeated ad nauseum that the 2nd and 3rd waves across the globe are being pushed up by younger people. Small Poland had ~550 cases/day during Europe's peak in March and April, it had a whooping 27000 cases yesterday ! Spain had 10k cases/day at peak, now it is routinely clocking over 20k cases/day. UK is up an eye watering 5 times from its spring peak of 5k to 25k now. None of these countries have Donald Trump nor did they "ignore" science. The serious uptick in cases in western countries is being driven by the onset of winter flu season and more and more young people becoming carriers. Similarly anyone who was in India during the peak Jul to Sept flu season and had stepped out of affluent neighborhoods would know the daily living conditions in markets and neighborhoods was the same as it is today, the only difference being the flu season tapers off in Sept, and so we see the cases and deaths in India have halved.

Even mortality wise US is nowhere close to being the worst. Here's the covid mortality analysis by Johns Hopkins https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

Italy,Spain,France,UK, Belgium,Brazil are all higher than US. Again, NY, NJ, CA,MA,DC,IL all have some of the highest per capita cases and death rates in the nation, its not which party is running these states but the densely populated cities they have.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 06 Nov 2020 21:59

Ambar wrote:Trump's action or inaction has nothing to do with the rise in case count..

Beg to differ.. Wearing Masks etc does effect the count,
First some SERIOUS items which directly affect the case count..

Steve Bannon (Trump's adviser) banned by Twitter for calling for Fauci beheading

This, of course is not isolated. In Ohio, they arrested a group who was going to kidnap/execute our governor because he was for masks and other commonsense procedures. Our top health experts and scientists have to resign because of death threats. It is VERY serious.

Trump's super-spreader events, according to all reputable sources have directly contributed to tens of thousands of cases. There is very little doubt that if Trump acted in time we would have saved few hundred thousand deaths..


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