Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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sudarshan
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 06 Nov 2020 22:05

Ambar wrote:The serious uptick in cases in western countries is being driven by the onset of winter flu season and more and more young people becoming carriers. Similarly anyone who was in India during the peak Jul to Sept flu season and had stepped out of affluent neighborhoods would know the daily living conditions in markets and neighborhoods was the same as it is today, the only difference being the flu season tapers off in Sept, and so we see the cases and deaths in India have halved.


You seem to be portraying it as inevitable, and driven entirely by the flu season. Please see the plots for NY state. I can post here if you wish. NY is one of the colder states, with an early flu season.

The flu season doesn't make the case count rise inevitable, there are also other states in the US which show this (not just NY).

There is some rise now in those states also (nothing like what is seen in the rest of US, Europe, etc.), it seems to be driven by the dynamics in neighboring states (diffusion phenomenon).

Even mortality wise US is nowhere close to being the worst. Here's the covid mortality analysis by Johns Hopkins https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

Italy,Spain,France,UK, Belgium,Brazil are all higher than US. Again, NY, NJ, CA,MA,DC,IL all have some of the highest per capita cases and death rates in the nation, its not which party is running these states but the densely populated cities they have.


There's a definite correlation with the way people behave, and the rise in pos. frac. (with attendant rise in deaths also). The same thing might have been seen in India right now, with the effects of Navratri showing clearly. If there's a group of people who believe that there is no need for precautions, and if that group is driven by a glaring example, then it doesn't matter which party is running the state/ country. Europe might have just opened up too soon, people were thronging beaches in France and Spain.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 06 Nov 2020 22:14

Amber G, with all due respect what explains near 10 fold rise in daily cases in Europe then ? If Trump's super spreader events contribute to the rise in cases, did the post George Floyd marches, pro-women rights march in DC, or the commitment march all across US against police brutality not contribute to the cases ? I think it is hypocritical to criticize US covid response on Trump administration while ignoring the fact that states make their own rules, there is nothing stopping CA or IL or NY from staying under completely lockdown, or for that matter individuals to wear masks. In most states where you are seeing serious uptick there are already mask rules in place. Also, As can be seen in Johns Hopkins site above US cases and deaths are no where near the worst even among other developed nations.

OT : As for Steve Bannon, i disagree with his way of politics and his personality but lets not forget how many on a daily basis have called for violence against Trump and his family. Kathy Griffin anyone ?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 06 Nov 2020 22:26

sudarshan wrote:
You seem to be portraying it as inevitable, and driven entirely by the flu season. Please see the plots for NY state. I can post here if you wish. NY is one of the colder states, with an early flu season.

The flu season doesn't make the case count rise inevitable, there are also other states in the US which show this (not just NY).

There is some rise now in those states also (nothing like what is seen in the rest of US, Europe, etc.), it seems to be driven by the dynamics in neighboring states (diffusion phenomenon).


There's a definite correlation with the way people behave, and the rise in pos. frac. (with attendant rise in deaths also). The same thing might have been seen in India right now, with the effects of Navratri showing clearly. If there's a group of people who believe that there is no need for precautions, and if that group is driven by a glaring example, then it doesn't matter which party is running the state/ country. Europe might have just opened up too soon, people were thronging beaches in France and Spain.


Similarly nothing explains why even a colder Canada did so much better than NE US . Again, it is up to the states to decide if they want to remain under lockdown and impose strict mask rules which most have done already. India's economic activity barring mass transit has been on the rise since Q2, other than the well known flu season tapering off nothing explains the drop in October with no difference in behavior pattern. Karnataka went into lock down 4.0 in late may and cases continued to climb showing it did little to stem the tide once the virus was already inside the communities.

As for Europe, even landlocked countries like Czech republic have seen a near 80 fold increase in daily cases. Europes cases started increasing exponentially nearly 6 months after their lockdown ended.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 06 Nov 2020 22:44

Let's go one or two points at a time. If I understand correctly what you wrote above:

* Lockdowns and masking (behavior patterns) have nothing to do with it
* It is a natural dynamic, driven by flu season

Did I get it right so far?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 06 Nov 2020 23:35

I am saying lockdowns and masks are a state subject in US as is in India. Europe imposed strict lockdowns and masks, lockdowns ended, ,cases dropped to negligible levels throughout the summer. It has now exploded in the entire western hemisphere including the US, US is relatively low compared to its peak months (doubled) where as in many European countries it is 40 to 50 times higher than their previous peaks. So it is preposterous to blame it on potus and discounting everything happening across the western world. It is also ridiculous to even suggest endless lockdowns , it is simply not feasible which is well understood even by the most socialist of nations. We saw what devastation a 4 week long lockdown caused on millions of migrants in India where the govt even with the best intentions did not have means to take care of them.

Is it a natural dynamic of a flu season ? The only co-relation we;ve seen in the covid pattern is its ebb and tide with the regional flu season, everything else has been random about this pandemic. Why is it high in India but not in Srilanka (not even mentioning Pakistan and Bangladesh with the assumption that they are lying) ? Why is it low in Ontario but high in NY across the border ? Why is it near 0 in Vietnam despite being next door to China ? For those who have the luxury of working from homes, use that option, use masks, maintain distance, but for billions in this world that's not an option.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 07 Nov 2020 07:21

Ambar wrote:I am saying lockdowns and masks are a state subject in US as is in India. Europe imposed strict lockdowns and masks, lockdowns ended, ,cases dropped to negligible levels throughout the summer. It has now exploded in the entire western hemisphere including the US, US is relatively low compared to its peak months (doubled) where as in many European countries it is 40 to 50 times higher than their previous peaks. So it is preposterous to blame it on potus and discounting everything happening across the western world.


Several things. US second wave was half the first wave, testing having expanded four fold. This current (third) wave - I haven't worked it out yet.

Two - "things are bad in the entire w. hem. and European countries can't blame Trump" doesn't mean "Trump is free of blame." There's still some things he could have done, no point washing off his hands saying "the general situation is that bad, what to do onlee."

Three - testing in some European countries (notably, Poland) has also expanded five-fold since Apr. (peak of last wave - if you can even call that a wave, with a peak of 300 cases a day in a country of 40 million). I'd say this (what is going on now) is really Poland's first wave. I seriously doubt many of those European countries got a significant fraction of their population infected the first time. Parts of the US did though.

It is also ridiculous to even suggest endless lockdowns , it is simply not feasible which is well understood even by the most socialist of nations. We saw what devastation a 4 week long lockdown caused on millions of migrants in India where the govt even with the best intentions did not have means to take care of them.


I've been saying from the beginning that the first lockdown in India was inevitable, but lockdowns after that were unsustainable. In fact, I believe I was the first in this thread to talk about the unsustainability of the "Parikshit syndrome."

Is it a natural dynamic of a flu season ? The only co-relation we;ve seen in the covid pattern is its ebb and tide with the regional flu season, everything else has been random about this pandemic.


I don't even see a correlation with flu season. That was my point.

Why is it high in India but not in Srilanka (not even mentioning Pakistan and Bangladesh with the assumption that they are lying) ?


I'm as clueless as most on this.

Why is it low in Ontario but high in NY across the border ?


Are you talking of right now? Because right now it's the other way round. NY is still basically flat, close to zero, though showing some signs of rising in the past week or so. Many other US states are flat too. And it's definitely flu season in those states. So - no real correlation with flu season, like I said.

Why is it near 0 in Vietnam despite being next door to China ?


Again, no clue.

For those who have the luxury of working from homes, use that option, use masks, maintain distance, but for billions in this world that's not an option.


Yeah, this is what we're talking about, really. Good that you agree - use masks, maintain distance. Which is what Trump has been actively discouraging. And his followers have been taking that to heart. It might be a state subject, but if a large fraction of the subjects of the state are bent on defying the principle, what should the state do? Fines, arrests? In public, maybe. If those subjects are going to have private gatherings, in the privacy of their homes, where they discard those principles - what then? How about summer barbeques? Remember the covid parties? And what to do when the entire White House is indifferent or hostile to those principles? Which state is supposed to enforce the rules then? How about presidential rallies?

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7800&start=7553

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7800&start=7555

Donald Trump wrote:“It’s very, very hard when you are with people from the military or from law enforcement. And they come over to you, and they want to hug you and they want to kiss you, because we really have done a good job for ’em. And you get close, and things happen,” Trump told Fox News.


So again, washing Trump's hands off (no pun) for him saying "rest of the world is even worse" doesn't cut it. The known mitigation strategies have been laughed off and even mocked, and this is after the guy got it himself. So what exactly are you defending here?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saip » 07 Nov 2020 10:18

Mark Meadows, Trump's chief of staff, tested positive for COVID. Trump also might be infected now.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 07 Nov 2020 14:55

GoI has identified & prioritised groups per which vaccine will be administered.

COVID-19 vaccine in India: Which group will be administered the vaccine first? Details here
Posting excerpts:
1. 1 crore healthcare professionals – The category includes doctors, nurses, ASHA workers and MBBS students.
2. 2 crore frontline workers - Police personnel, Armed forces personnel and municipal corporation comprise the group.
3. 26 crore people aged above 50: People aged above 50 will be a priority group because they are at a greater risk of contracting COVID-19.
4. 1 crore special category people: People aged below 50 but with co-morbidities will be a part of this group.


30 Crores = 300 Million.

SII says that Oxford vaccine for India will be around 30 million vials per month. No considering repeat dosage requirements & if SII is the only supplier, to vaccine 300 Million will take 10 months or by early Nov 2021 (this is assuming that Oxford vaccine will receive approval in India by year end or Jan 2021). So people who are younger than 50 & generally healthy should expect vaccine in very late 2021 or in 2022 only. Till then at least one won't get reprieve from wearing masks.

A couple of days ago, the director of AIIMS said the same thing i.e. younger population can expect to be vaccinated only in 2022. Looks like he was not wrong.

I do hope that GoI & States do take population concentration in to considerations as well.

Anyways, the above further highlights why we need multiple vaccines to become successful ASAP. I don't expect Covaxin to reach approval stage earlier than March-April 2021. I think the 2nd Indian vaccine by Zydus is still stuck in Phase-2. Russian vaccine has recently received approval for Ph-2 & Ph-3 trails. So expect another 4-5 months before approval if its found successful. So, we will need to turn towards US pharma majors to get whatever stocks they are willing to sell (majority of their vaccines will go towards US population) to Indians.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 07 Nov 2020 20:29

sudarshan wrote:
Ambar wrote:I am saying lockdowns and masks are a state subject in US as is in India. Europe imposed strict lockdowns and masks, lockdowns ended, ,cases dropped to negligible levels throughout the summer. It has now exploded in the entire western hemisphere including the US, US is relatively low compared to its peak months (doubled) where as in many European countries it is 40 to 50 times higher than their previous peaks. So it is preposterous to blame it on potus and discounting everything happening across the western world.


Several things. US second wave was half the first wave, testing having expanded four fold. This current (third) wave - I haven't worked it out yet.

Two - "things are bad in the entire w. hem. and European countries can't blame Trump" doesn't mean "Trump is free of blame." There's still some things he could have done, no point washing off his hands saying "the general situation is that bad, what to do onlee."

Three - testing in some European countries (notably, Poland) has also expanded five-fold since Apr. (peak of last wave - if you can even call that a wave, with a peak of 300 cases a day in a country of 40 million). I'd say this (what is going on now) is really Poland's first wave. I seriously doubt many of those European countries got a significant fraction of their population infected the first time. Parts of the US did though.


I am still curious to know what is it that Trump could have done which the state governors could not/did not do themselves ? Saying "Orange man kill 230k" and "US is doing terrible because of Trump handling the pandemic" is silly & political unless we explain bad compared to whom ? China ? Which claims only 4k people/80k cases in a country of 1.4 billion where the virus started or someone like Pakistan with no means to test,trace and document ? Among the other western nations US is neither the worst nor the best. US' Observed CFR is in the bottom half Vs other nations -

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

The 30 day moving avg shows an explosion of cases even in Italy, Spain, UK, France and Netherlands which were devastated by the first wave in Mar/Apr. During the early months, the screams were "US is not testing enough compared to EU" and now that US has long overtaken EU in the per capita number of tests we are down to generalizations and conjectures such as "the administration grossly mishandled crisis & 230k people died". Whether the virus is natural or manmade, one thing is certain after 10 months that there's nothing governments can do once the virus enters the communities other than to board up doors and windows and lock people in forcefully like China did, but civilized societies fortunately don't do that.


sudarshan wrote:
I've been saying from the beginning that the first lockdown in India was inevitable, but lockdowns after that were unsustainable. In fact, I believe I was the first in this thread to talk about the unsustainability of the "Parikshit syndrome."


I am surprised you say this because the shoutingheads in the media were calling for more lockdowns in May and blamed the administration for opening up too soon.




sudarshan wrote:
I don't even see a correlation with flu season. That was my point.


In much of Europe , the flu season is in the later part of winter (Jan to Mar), in US it is fall and winter, in India it is during the summer and monsoon months, in Brazil and much of southern hemisphere the flu season starts from May and tapers by september, the only coorelation so far in this random, arbitrary pandemic has been with the flu season. There is nothing that India did differently in October that we were doing in Jul/Aug which dramatically reduced the number of cases.

sudarshan wrote:
Why is it high in India but not in Srilanka (not even mentioning Pakistan and Bangladesh with the assumption that they are lying) ?


I'm as clueless as most on this.

Why is it low in Ontario but high in NY across the border ?


Are you talking of right now? Because right now it's the other way round. NY is still basically flat, close to zero, though showing some signs of rising in the past week or so. Many other US states are flat too. And it's definitely flu season in those states. So - no real correlation with flu season, like I said.

Why is it near 0 in Vietnam despite being next door to China ?


Again, no clue.


In the first wave, NY state had around 12 times higher number of cases/100k people than the neighboring Ontario. Again, not Trump or his administration but the bizzare nature of this virus and to some extent fundamental social economic disparities play a role. The low number of cases in Srilanka or Vietnam or even some rich sheikhdoms in Gulf shows how uneven the pandemic has been.

For those who have the luxury of working from homes, use that option, use masks, maintain distance, but for billions in this world that's not an option.


sudarshan wrote:Yeah, this is what we're talking about, really. Good that you agree - use masks, maintain distance. Which is what Trump has been actively discouraging. And his followers have been taking that to heart. It might be a state subject, but if a large fraction of the subjects of the state are bent on defying the principle, what should the state do? Fines, arrests? In public, maybe. If those subjects are going to have private gatherings, in the privacy of their homes, where they discard those principles - what then? How about summer barbeques? Remember the covid parties? And what to do when the entire White House is indifferent or hostile to those principles? Which state is supposed to enforce the rules then? How about presidential rallies?

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7800&start=7553

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7800&start=7555



Trump never said "don't wear a mask". Are you seriously blaming Trump for those "covid parties" in college towns or the "covid challenge" dumbness on tiktok ? It was young people (the core demographic of the woke liberals) who were doing dumb things as they usually do. How hard a state enforces its laws is again a state subject. They can fine, deny entry or even arrest, that is not something the federal govt controls. It is not upto the whitehouse to dictate how a state should form its laws and how it should enforce them. CDC routinely shares recommendations to the states, it is upto the state how to use those recommendations to their advantage. If the Presidential rallies were super-spreader events as were the "committment marches", the George Floyd protests, the BLM marches and riots and the womens march, what's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander no ?

Speaking of arbitrariness there is the curious case of Sweden which never imposed a single day of lockdown nor masks. No one can accuse the Swedes as being primitive, unscientific or religious given that Sweden like much of Scandinavia has one of the highest HDI value. Yet their cases/100k or CFR is neither the worst nor the best in Europe.

Donald Trump wrote:“It’s very, very hard when you are with people from the military or from law enforcement. And they come over to you, and they want to hug you and they want to kiss you, because we really have done a good job for ’em. And you get close, and things happen,” Trump told Fox News.


sudarshan wrote:So again, washing Trump's hands off (no pun) for him saying "rest of the world is even worse" doesn't cut it. The known mitigation strategies have been laughed off and even mocked, and this is after the guy got it himself. So what exactly are you defending here?

I'll leave it at this


" “I’m encouraging New Yorkers to go on with your lives + get out on the town despite Coronavirus,” " - NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio

Or in a symbol of racial solidarity Lt Gov of NY marched in NYC's Chinatown on the day of Lunar New Year. "Don't have an overly anxious reaction" - Andrew Cuomo. "The Young invincibles" said Gov Gavin Newsom when asked increasing number of young people getting infected by covid in CA, this when California opened beaches in summer.

"Excuse our arrogance but we have the best healthcare system here in NY. So we don't think it will be bad here (in NYC) as in other countries" - Gov. Andrew Cuomo, 3/2/2020.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 07 Nov 2020 21:19

Ambar ji, here's the deal.

Pick one point at a time. Let's say - "the dynamics of the pandemic are correlated with the flu season." Look at the data - does the data support or deny this? I don't care about what the media said, or Trump said, or what anybody else said - I'm talking of plots, tables, correlations.

Once the data is seen to refute or confirm the point (or to be totally inconclusive - which happens) - move to the next point.

Ticking off points one by one - is there correlation with the flu season; is there correlation with lockdowns; with masking and distancing - once that is done, it will be clearer, what Trump could have done or could not have done. All driven by data itself (or if the data are inconclusive - just drop the debate, no point going on).

This style of lengthy debates, paragraphs long, opening up new allegations and talking points with each post - it may be suited for political threads. I am not knocking that debating style, I just don't do well at it, which is why I stay out of debates in the political threads.

I believe this thread is more like a data analysis thread, not a political one. Which is why I'm suggesting the above, not just because I like this debating style, or that I do good at it.

Are you up for the above? If so, we can continue. If not - then I'll have to respectfully bow out (no offence).

Ambar wrote:
sudarshan wrote:I've been saying from the beginning that the first lockdown in India was inevitable, but lockdowns after that were unsustainable. In fact, I believe I was the first in this thread to talk about the unsustainability of the "Parikshit syndrome."


I am surprised you say this because the shoutingheads in the media were calling for more lockdowns in May and blamed the administration for opening up too soon.


I don't get this. I was talking about what *I* said. Why bring in what the media said? When the media was shouting about more lockdowns, I was arguing against it. So what exactly are you surprised about? Are you tagging me with the media?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 07 Nov 2020 22:09

When all is said and done - here is some data: The COVID-19 pandemic has been spiking again in the U.S.
Image

(Meanwhile per today's news: -- Trump's inner circle has now 7 people - per today's news)

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 07 Nov 2020 23:26

sudarshan wrote:Ambar ji, here's the deal.

Pick one point at a time. Let's say - "the dynamics of the pandemic are correlated with the flu season." Look at the data - does the data support or deny this? I don't care about what the media said, or Trump said, or what anybody else said - I'm talking of plots, tables, correlations.

Once the data is seen to refute or confirm the point (or to be totally inconclusive - which happens) - move to the next point.

Ticking off points one by one - is there correlation with the flu season; is there correlation with lockdowns; with masking and distancing - once that is done, it will be clearer, what Trump could have done or could not have done. All driven by data itself (or if the data are inconclusive - just drop the debate, no point going on).


I was responding to the repeated allegations that 230k people died of covid because of Trump administration's decisions. It is a uniquely US/India thing to politicize everything where as one never hears about how Belgians died under Alenxander De Croo or Swedes under Stefan Lofven or French deaths under Emmnauel Macron despite those countries either having similar or much higher mortality rate than US.

Like i've said multiple times the only thing consistent about this pandemic has been its arbitrariness . In my previous post i have mentioned about a pattern how covid has risen with the flu season in western, northern and southern hemispheres, and how it seems to decline when the regular flu season also tapers in those hemispheres. The practices of containing the contagion works if individuals take responsibility not when you have people thronging the beaches from Miami to Long Island to Santa Monica or protesting, rioting and partying from LA to St Paul and then blame the federal govt.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saip » 08 Nov 2020 00:54

According to CDC, US is undercounting deaths due to COVID by as much as 300k. In the USA the buck ALWAYS stops at resolute desk in the Oval office. Do not like it, LEAVE.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 08 Nov 2020 01:05

I thought the tracing and covid death reporting was at a county level and not the Whitehouse ? Are you suggesting that the counties across the country in states run by both GoP and Democrats have been under-reporting but that is somehow the fed's fault ? CDC btw recently said "its ok to go vote in person even if you are covid positive". Confused about the suggestion to leave, leave what and to where ?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 08 Nov 2020 01:10

Ambar wrote:I was responding to the repeated allegations that 230k people died of covid because of Trump administration's decisions. It is a uniquely US/India thing to politicize everything where as one never hears about how Belgians died under Alenxander De Croo or Swedes under Stefan Lofven or French deaths under Emmnauel Macron despite those countries either having similar or much higher mortality rate than US.

Like i've said multiple times the only thing consistent about this pandemic has been its arbitrariness . In my previous post i have mentioned about a pattern how covid has risen with the flu season in western, northern and southern hemispheres, and how it seems to decline when the regular flu season also tapers in those hemispheres. The practices of containing the contagion works if individuals take responsibility not when you have people thronging the beaches from Miami to Long Island to Santa Monica or protesting, rioting and partying from LA to St Paul and then blame the federal govt.


And that is an extremely simplistic view. I don't know who made these repeated allegations of 230k people dying entirely because of Trump, but that's not what I'm talking about.

By not acting fast enough initially (allowing the back-door entry of the virus through Europe instead of China), constantly belittling the dangers, setting a bad example, exposing the White House, his inner and outer circle, and by exposing people in his mega rallies, and further encouraging them to behave irresponsibly in private life, if Trump contributed to an additional 20k, 10k, or even 5k deaths, and a corresponding number of cases to go with that, then that is still not a small contribution. Twiddling one's thumbs would be bad enough, but you definitely don't go adding fuel to the fire (even just a gram), saying "I didn't start that fire, and I'm in no position to put it out, it's the job of the fire dept.," especially when you're in a position of such power. Trump was certainly not that helpless, that he had to let the states do everything. Or act any way he pleased, and then put the onus on the state govt.s to fix that.

Lockdowns, masking, etc. are a state subject in India too, right? It's up to the states to enforce those. Why and how did Modi impose a central level lockdown? What if Modi too went about dissing masks and building up hope that "we are around the corner, another few days onlee?" Modi gets scientists together and gets them to model the entire phenomenon, so we have an objective view of what's coming; Trump sidelines Fauci and acts like he knows everything, things have to happen *in spite of* Trump. That's where karmanyeva'dhikaraste comes in - one does one's duty regardless of consequence.

This is getting too political for this thread, so the last from me on this.
Last edited by sudarshan on 08 Nov 2020 01:13, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby darshan » 08 Nov 2020 01:11

chinese have succeeded after all. No one is talking about china and virus. All are talking about mask, no mask, how to count or not to count, statistical models, etc. If I have to fault politicians about mishandling virus situation, it would only be about failing to hold chinese accountable and educating their supporters about chinese threat.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 08 Nov 2020 01:47

sudarshan wrote:
And that is an extremely simplistic view. I don't know who made these repeated allegations of 230k people dying entirely because of Trump, but that's not what I'm talking about.

By not acting fast enough initially (allowing the back-door entry of the virus through Europe instead of China), constantly belittling the dangers, setting a bad example, exposing the White House, his inner and outer circle, and by exposing people in his mega rallies, and further encouraging them to behave irresponsibly in private life, if Trump contributed to an additional 20k, 10k, or even 5k deaths, and a corresponding number of cases to go with that, then that is still not a small contribution. Twiddling one's thumbs would be bad enough, but you definitely don't go adding fuel to the fire (even just a gram), saying "I didn't start that fire, and I'm in no position to put it out, it's the job of the fire dept.," especially when you're in a position of such power. Trump was certainly not that helpless, that he had to let the states do everything. Or act any way he pleased, and then put the onus on the state govt.s to fix that.

Lockdowns, masking, etc. are a state subject in India too, right? It's up to the states to enforce those. Why and how did Modi impose a central level lockdown? What if Modi too went about dissing masks and building up hope that "we are around the corner, another few days onlee?" Modi gets scientists together and gets them to model the entire phenomenon, so we have an objective view of what's coming; Trump sidelines Fauci and acts like he knows everything, things have to happen *in spite of* Trump. That's where karmanyeva'dhikaraste comes in - one does one's duty regardless of consequence.

This is getting too political for this thread, so the last from me on this.


Europe had not exploded until early March, US imposed a ban on flights from EU on 3/12 when US had just 38 deaths 1100 cases. India implemented travel ban on 3/18. I'm sure no need to say on this forum that US' 10th amendment gives its states enormous powers on how to take decisions independent of federal government. Feds can restrict interstate commerce and international travel which it did. India's central govt has more leeway but after the migrant crisis Modi too let the states make the decision after 5 weeks. Trump administration declared a public health emergency on 3/13, on 3/16 NY Gov Andrew Cuomo said "there's nothing to worry about". If you are in Chicago and have a fire emergency but expect a fire engine from downtown DC then you may as well just use the fire to fry a marshmallow. Feds did what they could, states did what they could rest is upto nature as we are all witnessing in Europe, Latin America and US.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 08 Nov 2020 02:37

Have been busy doing some real work and has not been reading brf so forgive if something obvious is being repeated..
But as a scientist, let me just make a quick response ..


I was responding to the repeated allegations that 230k people died of covid because of Trump administration's decisions..


Not going to convince blind Trump followers but FWIW:

Virtually 100% of *ALL* the experts I know (including all reputable journals/CDC/WHO etc) have no doubt.. the models may give slightly different numbers (as expected) but there is NO DOUBT that if simple things like masks and precautions *strongly* recommended by Trump's own health experts were followed, we would have saved at least 90% of the deaths .. probably much more. Think about that..



*ALL* models give similar figures. Of course, there are still people who believe in flat earth, horoscope, and not wearing a mask etc. Trump has enabled such practices and that has resulted in lot of *unnecessary* misery.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Shankas » 08 Nov 2020 02:44

darshan wrote:chinese have succeeded after all. No one is talking about china and virus. All are talking about mask, no mask, how to count or not to count, statistical models, etc. If I have to fault politicians about mishandling virus situation, it would only be about failing to hold chinese accountable and educating their supporters about chinese threat.


The world may not be talking, but no one is forgetting any time soon. We Indians may let it go by chalking it to Karma, but the West will not. If they know it was Chinese made, we will all see hell unleashed on China over the next 18~36 months.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 08 Nov 2020 03:16

Ambar wrote:If you are in Chicago and have a fire emergency but expect a fire engine from downtown DC then you may as well just use the fire to fry a marshmallow.


I think this sums it up right here. So rather than - let's say - making sure the path is clear for the fire engine; keeping gawkers away; encouraging passers by to maintain a safe distance; finding some water to supplement the fire engines' efforts; coordinating communications - all that kind of thing.... Throw up one's hands, say "what to do, fire engine has to get here" ... and fry marshmallows. And encourage other gawkers, passers-by, etc. to do the same, while *actively mocking all fire precautions and saying 'don't worry, this fire will run down in just a bit, we are around the corner.'*

So the NY gov. was arrogant, other state govts got lax on the job. Yes, the state govt.s had big jobs, and many of them fell down on the job. Why does that excuse Trump's behavior in ignoring pandemic procedures in the WH, having rallies without precautions, making reassuring noises which only discourage the public from following precautions, all that kind of thing? If it's not his job (that he was utterly helpless is a questionable assumption to begin with), could he at least zip it and not act like he knows everything?

The above was just too juicy to let go, too indicative of the overall dismissive attitude. Yes, admins, I'll stop and get back to actual data. Sorry.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 08 Nov 2020 03:33

Okay this is very good news!

Biden is announcing a COVID task force, which will be chaired by 3 scientists: former Surgeon General
Vivek Murthy, former FDA Commissioner David A Kessler and epidemiologist Dr. Marcella Nunez-Smith.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Mort Walker » 08 Nov 2020 09:04

Amber G. wrote:Okay this is very good news!

Biden is announcing a COVID task force, which will be chaired by 3 scientists: former Surgeon General
Vivek Murthy, former FDA Commissioner David A Kessler and epidemiologist Dr. Marcella Nunez-Smith.


Public health in the US is largely governed by the states who in turn receive federal funding. There is little any COVID task force can do no matter who is on it. Some states like CA managed COVID well, but others like NY were very poor.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 08 Nov 2020 14:02

Amber G. wrote:Virtually 100% of *ALL* the experts I know (including all reputable journals/CDC/WHO etc) have no doubt.. the models may give slightly different numbers (as expected) but there is NO DOUBT that if simple things like masks and precautions *strongly* recommended by Trump's own health experts were followed, we would have saved at least 90% of the deaths .. probably much more. Think about that..

*ALL* models give similar figures. Of course, there are still people who believe in flat earth, horoscope, and not wearing a mask etc. Trump has enabled such practices and that has resulted in lot of *unnecessary* misery.

TBVH, I didn't see too much social distancing and even mask wearing from the 1000s of protestors in the summer months - what does Trump have to do with that? Its not like he banned people from wearing masks or social distancing.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 08 Nov 2020 14:09

sudarshan wrote:
Ambar wrote:The serious uptick in cases in western countries is being driven by the onset of winter flu season and more and more young people becoming carriers. Similarly anyone who was in India during the peak Jul to Sept flu season and had stepped out of affluent neighborhoods would know the daily living conditions in markets and neighborhoods was the same as it is today, the only difference being the flu season tapers off in Sept, and so we see the cases and deaths in India have halved.


You seem to be portraying it as inevitable, and driven entirely by the flu season. Please see the plots for NY state. I can post here if you wish. NY is one of the colder states, with an early flu season.

The flu season doesn't make the case count rise inevitable, there are also other states in the US which show this (not just NY).

There is some rise now in those states also (nothing like what is seen in the rest of US, Europe, etc.), it seems to be driven by the dynamics in neighboring states (diffusion phenomenon).
.

Winter is cohmin! And this is/will drive people to be more indoors - increasing the chance of transmission. Next few weeks will be telling.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cyrano » 08 Nov 2020 14:25

Trump mishandling of the pandemic originates in his reaction to it, which has been "how can I get re-elected with this pandemic" rather than "how do deal with it effectively to control/eliminate it". I've watched many of his Covid briefings, they are all cringe worthy. If 70 million people have voted for him despite the mess he has made of it, its undeniable that he could have influenced at least their behaviour in the right direction by setting the example and not turning those briefings into a circus and the Federal Govt's response into bumbling disarray.

If anyone here in BR doesn't agree with the above, please watch those daily Covid briefings again on YT. Even after that you believe Trump is blameless, then we just have to agree to disagree and leave it at that.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 08 Nov 2020 14:36

Cyrano wrote:Trump mishandling of the pandemic originates in his reaction to it, which has been "how can I get re-elected with this pandemic" rather than "how do deal with it effectively to control/eliminate it". I've watched many of his Covid briefings, they are all cringe worthy. If 70 million people have voted for him despite the mess he has made of it, its undeniable that he could have influenced at least their behaviour in the right direction by setting the example and not turning those briefings into a circus and the Federal Govt's response into bumbling disarray.

If anyone here in BR doesn't agree with the above, please watch those daily Covid briefings again on YT. Even after that you believe Trump is blameless, then we just have to agree to disagree and leave it at that.

Trump is OBVIOUSLY not blame-free. His biggest mistake being opening up too early and not truly following up on the lockdown by creating a strong regime of testing-tracing-isolation. His signalling is hardly the big issue imho. Frankly, if the Dems were in charge, they might not have even banned incoming flights from China - I wonder how long it would have taken for them to take such steps. So, sure Trump is not blameless but one wonders if anyone in the opposition would have fared much better.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 08 Nov 2020 23:21

Cain Marko wrote:
Amber G. wrote:Virtually 100% of *ALL* the experts I know (including all reputable journals/CDC/WHO etc) have no doubt.. the models may give slightly different numbers (as expected) but there is NO DOUBT that if simple things like masks and precautions *strongly* recommended by Trump's own health experts were followed, we would have saved at least 90% of the deaths .. probably much more. Think about that..

*ALL* models give similar figures. Of course, there are still people who believe in flat earth, horoscope, and not wearing a mask etc. Trump has enabled such practices and that has resulted in lot of *unnecessary* misery.

TBVH, I didn't see too much social distancing and even mask wearing from the 1000s of protestors in the summer months - what does Trump have to do with that? Its not like he banned people from wearing masks or social distancing.


To put it mildly it is beyond silly to keep using Trump's talking point about "protesters" etc..
Trump's few rallies alone, people who go by data say, are responsible for 30,000+ cases and more than 700 deaths . Of course there are people who believe in earth is flat, or value of pi is 4 but apart may question such numbers with silly reference to "protesters" or "Hillary's email" /sigh/

Herman Cain, died. Chris Christie spent days in ICU..etc.. let me just point to one link:
A study conducted by four Stanford University economic researchers determined that 18 Trump campaign rallies, the bulk of which took place over the past summer, “ultimately resulted in more than 30,000 incremental confirmed cases of COVID-19” and “likely led to more than 700 deaths.”

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 08 Nov 2020 23:31

Amber G. wrote:Okay this is very good news!

Biden is announcing a COVID task force, which will be chaired by 3 scientists: former Surgeon General
Vivek Murthy, former FDA Commissioner David A Kessler and epidemiologist Dr. Marcella Nunez-Smith.

This perhaps will be formally announced on Monday but reaction from scientific communities, both here in USA and in India have been extremely positive. The news is already in many Indian newspapers. All three people are highly respected world wide.

Story in Indian Media:
Biden taps Vivek Murthy to co-chair Covid-19 team: Report
Former US Surgeon General Vivek Murthy will co-chair a Coronavirus task force that President-elect Joe Biden will announce on Monday as his first major step towards combating the pandemic, his top campaign promise.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 09 Nov 2020 00:20

Amber G. wrote:To put it mildly it is beyond silly to keep using Trump's talking point about "protesters" etc..
Trump's few rallies alone, people who go by data say, are responsible for 30,000+ cases and more than 700 deaths . Of course there are people who believe in earth is flat, or value of pi is 4 but apart may question such numbers with silly reference to "protesters" or "Hillary's email" /sigh/

Herman Cain, died. Chris Christie spent days in ICU..etc.. let me just point to one link:
A study conducted by four Stanford University economic researchers determined that 18 Trump campaign rallies, the bulk of which took place over the past summer, “ultimately resulted in more than 30,000 incremental confirmed cases of COVID-19” and “likely led to more than 700 deaths.”

Fascinating that Trump's rallies are able to make such an impact, and protestors/revellers gathered together in the 1000s make none. Maybe Stanford types need to study this impact as well. Can't just brush it off as as "Must be another one of those flat earth type theories wonlee". Otherwise it seems to me that education alone is not the prerequisite for common sense.
Last edited by Cain Marko on 09 Nov 2020 00:33, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 09 Nov 2020 00:32

Cain Marko wrote:Fascinating that Trump's rallies are able to make such an impact, and protestors/revellers gathered together in the 1000s make none. Must be another one of those flat earth type theories wonlee. Obviously education alone is not the prerequisite for common sense.


Not sure who made that claim (the bolded part). The Stanford study probably reflects the authors' biases, that they go investigating the effect of Trump's rallies, and not the effects of the protesters. But even so, I didn't see anything in that article to indicate that they dismissed the effects of the protesters.

Of course the 1000s of protesters would have also contributed to cases and deaths, probably in far greater numbers than Trump's rallies.

My point is that the president of the country has a responsibility, and his being openly indifferent or hostile to the mitigation principles - looks very bad; sets a very bad example; discourages genuine efforts by the states; and ultimately (I believe, just my opinion) also led to his ouster (in a minor way). Folks who wanted Trump to win should be able to see this - if he'd showed some sensitivity and some sensibility, he might have made it (again, IMHO).

Modi set a great example, went about it in an objective, scientific way, letting the scientists dictate the response. Trump did not - Trump was subjective, opinionated, and also got in the scientists' way.

This kind of partisan view is the problem - anybody who points out some wrong on Trump's part, is presumed to be giving the other side a free pass. Yes, had the democrats been in power, they would probably have messed up the pandemic response even worse than Trump. That's not the point here. Who was actually in power, what were the shortcomings in his response, and how do we avoid that, going forward. That's all there is to it (at least as far as I'm concerned).

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cyrano » 09 Nov 2020 00:36

Sudrshan ji, lot of folks are right now smarting from Trump's defeat. Hope the bile gets metabolised as days pass and we can have saner discussions again.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 09 Nov 2020 00:53

sudarshan wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:Fascinating that Trump's rallies are able to make such an impact, and protestors/revellers gathered together in the 1000s make none. Must be another one of those flat earth type theories wonlee. Obviously education alone is not the prerequisite for common sense.


Not sure who made that claim (the bolded part). The Stanford study probably reflects the authors' biases, that they go investigating the effect of Trump's rallies, and not the effects of the protesters. But even so, I didn't see anything in that article to indicate that they dismissed the effects of the protesters.

Of course the 1000s of protesters would have also contributed to cases and deaths, probably in far greater numbers than Trump's rallies.

My point is that the president of the country has a responsibility, and his being openly indifferent or hostile to the mitigation principles - looks very bad; sets a very bad example; discourages genuine efforts by the states; and ultimately (I believe, just my opinion) also led to his ouster (in a minor way). Folks who wanted Trump to win should be able to see this - if he'd showed some sensitivity and some sensibility, he might have made it (again, IMHO).

Modi set a great example, went about it in an objective, scientific way, letting the scientists dictate the response. Trump did not - Trump was subjective, opinionated, and also got in the scientists' way.

This kind of partisan view is the problem - anybody who points out some wrong on Trump's part, is presumed to be giving the other side a free pass. Yes, had the democrats been in power, they would probably have messed up the pandemic response even worse than Trump. That's not the point here. Who was actually in power, what were the shortcomings in his response, and how do we avoid that, going forward. That's all there is to it (at least as far as I'm concerned).

Don't disagree with anything in this post. But have to ask:

Wrt the bold part, where are the studies that show the impact of protestors? The ones that I have seen completely exonerate such behavior.
https://news.northeastern.edu/2020/08/11/racial-justice-protests-were-not-a-major-cause-of-covid-19-infection-surges-new-national-study-finds/

At the very least, it seems curious that Trump's rallies act as super spreaders but similar events from the other side have no impact. Labeling anyone who asks such questions as "flat earthers" or "sore losers" is doubly curious, or dare one say, biased.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 09 Nov 2020 02:05

Nice to see: (From the Transition site):

The Biden-Harris administration will always:

- Listen to science
- Ensure public health decisions are informed by public health professionals
- Promote trust, transparency, common purpose, and accountability in our government


President-elect Biden and Vice President-elect Harris have a seven-point plan to beat COVID-19.

Ensure all Americans have access to regular, reliable, and free testing.

Double the number of drive-through testing sites.
Invest in next-generation testing, including at home tests and instant tests, so we can scale up our testing capacity by orders of magnitude.
Stand up a Pandemic Testing Board like Roosevelt’s War Production Board. It’s how we produced tanks, planes, uniforms, and supplies in record time, and it’s how we will produce and distribute tens of millions of tests.
Establish a U.S. Public Health Jobs Corps to mobilize at least 100,000 Americans across the country with support from trusted local organizations in communities most at risk to perform culturally competent approaches to contact tracing and protecting at-risk populations.
Fix personal protective equipment (PPE) problems for good.

President-elect Joe Biden is taking responsibility and giving states, cities, tribes, and territories the critical supplies they need.

Fully use the Defense Production Act to ramp up production of masks, face shields, and other PPE so that the national supply of personal protective equipment exceeds demand and our stores and stockpiles — especially in hard-hit areas that serve disproportionately vulnerable populations — are fully replenished.
Build immediately toward a future, flexible American-sourced and manufactured capability to ensure we are not dependent on other countries in a crisis.
Provide clear, consistent, evidence-based guidance for how communities should navigate the pandemic – and the resources for schools, small businesses, and families to make it through.

Social distancing is not a light switch. It is a dial. President-elect Biden will direct the CDC to provide specific evidence-based guidance for how to turn the dial up or down relative to the level of risk and degree of viral spread in a community, including when to open or close certain businesses, bars, restaurants, and other spaces; when to open or close schools, and what steps they need to take to make classrooms and facilities safe; appropriate restrictions on size of gatherings; when to issue stay-at-home restrictions.
Establish a renewable fund for state and local governments to help prevent budget shortfalls, which may cause states to face steep cuts to teachers and first responders.
Call on Congress to pass an emergency package to ensure schools have the additional resources they need to adapt effectively to COVID-19.
Provide a “restart package” that helps small businesses cover the costs of operating safely, including things like plexiglass and PPE.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Mort Walker » 09 Nov 2020 03:36

^^^Biden administration has already failed the 1st test on Coronavirus as thousands of supporters created super-spreader events celebrating their victory. Not a word from Biden-Harris.

Pictures of Biden-Harris super spreader events:

Image
https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/stat ... 1827911680

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ManSingh » 09 Nov 2020 09:36

Mort Walker wrote:^^^Biden administration has already failed the 1st test on Coronavirus as thousands of supporters created super-spreader events celebrating their victory. Not a word from Biden-Harris.

Pictures of Biden-Harris super


If I zoom in, I can see most folks wearing a mask.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Mort Walker » 09 Nov 2020 11:49

^^^Not all of them and there is no social distancing. This was the scene in various cities across the US. You're attempting to rationalize risky behavior which is no different than Trump super-spreader event rallies the media talked so intently about. Finally, Biden who claims to be for pandemic science has been quiet about this.

Image

Now to Kamla Harris's credit she did tweet that everyone should wear a mask and maintain social distancing. Of course it is being ignored.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chanakyaa » 09 Nov 2020 18:57

Now that the desired outcome has been achieved in a completely fair and transparent elections 8), time to release the magic potion.

Pfizer and BioNTech Announce Vaccine Candidate Against COVID-19 Achieved Success in First Interim Analysis from Phase 3 Study
Vaccine candidate was found to be more than 90% effective in preventing COVID-19 in participants without evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection in the first interim efficacy analysis

The case split between vaccinated individuals and those who received the placebo indicates a vaccine efficacy rate above 90%, at seven days after the second dose. This means that protection is achieved 28 days after the initiation of the vaccination, which consists of a 2-dose schedule.

The Phase 3 clinical trial of BNT162b2 began on July 27 and has enrolled 43,538 participants to date, 38,955 of whom have received a second dose of the vaccine candidate as of November 8, 2020. Approximately 42% of global participants and 30% of U.S. participants have racially and ethnically diverse backgrounds. The trial is continuing to enroll and is expected to continue through the final analysis when a total of 164 confirmed COVID-19 cases have accrued. The study also will evaluate the potential for the vaccine candidate to provide protection against COVID-19 in those who have had prior exposure to SARS-CoV-2, as well as vaccine prevention against severe COVID-19 disease. In addition to the primary efficacy endpoints evaluating confirmed COVID-19 cases accruing from seven days after the second dose, the final analysis now will include, with the approval of the FDA, new secondary endpoints evaluating efficacy based on cases accruing 14 days after the second dose as well. The companies believe that the addition of these secondary endpoints will help align data across all COVID-19 vaccine studies and allow for cross-trial learnings and comparisons between these novel vaccine platforms.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby darshan » 09 Nov 2020 19:02

Didn't WHO say that this drug isn't helping?

Indian demand for COVID-19 drug Remdesivir rising sharply: Cipla
https://www.wionews.com/india-news/indi ... pla-341918

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 10 Nov 2020 01:04

Amber G. wrote:Okay this is very good news!

Biden is announcing a COVID task force, which will be chaired by 3 scientists: former Surgeon General
Vivek Murthy, former FDA Commissioner David A Kessler and epidemiologist Dr. Marcella Nunez-Smith.


Now it is official. It is a very nice team.
Image

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 10 Nov 2020 01:21

Sharing a recent picture of Dr. Atul Gwande's (who will be on Covid task force) parents - who immigrated to USA just around the time I did. Both have been serving rural Ohio as well respected doctors for last many decades. Image


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