Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

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Bart S
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Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Bart S » 29 Mar 2020 05:39

x-posting from the 'Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread'
amar_p wrote:Its extremely heartening to see DRDO, universities, research institutes, PSUs and private enterprises (sometimes with IP transfer from Govt Orgs) innovating rapidly and coming forward to produce testing kits, PPE materials and other vital supplies. We can be rightfully proud of this silent Swadeshi movement. Bravo !

We are building some capabilities that will be far reaching. When this epidemic dies down, Indian industry can become a fantastic source of such goods for many developing and developed countries.


As they say, never waste a good crisis!

I think this drives home to a thick skinned GOI and babudom some home truths:
-RBI finally was dragged kicking and screaming away from it's stubborn and impractical focus on fiscal deficit and inflation vs the growth and stimulus that was long overdue.
-Existing regulations stifle such jugaad and innovation that Indians excel at and must be done away with
-Can't afford to rely on China for APIs, basic supplies etc. Derisking of supply chain and banning China as much as possible should be done
-WFH is a viable option for a large number of office employees and should be encouraged and incentivized. If nothing else, the beneficial impact on the environment is extremely welcome.
-Globe traveling yuppies and peaceful folks have been exposed as some of the most in-disciplined and irresponsible people. Protocols must be evolved an put in place for the future, that include confiscation of passports etc for people who do not comply.
-We need more digitization of not just identity but healthcare, tracking of population and movement etc
-Pandemic and epidemic management protocols are needed not just for some elite babus in some ivory tower, but at the state govt level and even at the pvt co level. For e.g Big Basket, Amazon etc should know in advance what PPE their delivery persons should be equipped with, and what the operational protocols are, and likewise how police and their agents interact smoothly to ensure that things keep running etc.
-Strict legal regulation required to prevent harassment of front line warriors (healthcare, airline etc) by moronic landlords and RWAs etc
-Purpose built medical trains can serve as a traveling AIIMS to cover various parts of the country that may not have the best hospitals
-Legal measures and penalties should be in place for people spreading fake news and panic

Mods: Could we perhaps have a thread to brainstorm the potential risks, and even more importantly the opportunities arising out of the COVID crisis and the new post-COVID world, for India as a whole, individual Indians and Indian entities?


Created a new thread with Moderator permission.

Summary:
While we are grappling with the COVID19 crisis and it's mitigation, it is also essential that we think about what the future holds (post-COVID19) and how India and Indians can best benefit from it.
-What can we learn from current experience, improve on, or take away for future reference
-What will the Post-COVID19 world look like from the strategic, economic and geopolitical perspectives
-SWOT (Strengths-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats) for India in a country, region and world emerging from the COVID19 crisis
-How can India gain from any manufacturing, research and supply chain opportunities that might open up

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Re: Post-Covid19 World and India

Postby sudarshan » 29 Mar 2020 06:07

It's a sensitive topic, so I just let it go with getting a few eyeballs on it, hopefully seeding some thought on the topic in several minds. I told myself I'd delete the post after the thread got to 150 views, so *poof*.

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Re: Post-Covid19 World and India

Postby Suresh S » 29 Mar 2020 07:14

X posting from strategic and analysis thread

Postby Suresh S » 15 Mar 2020 05:30 pm

it is very likely that India emerges is the biggest winner from this disaster both civilizationally and economically and militarily. Low oil prices. likely low probability of high covid-19 cases being a tropical country and summer almost there.China will be the biggest looser. they have brought the world to the doors of disaster with there habits of eating every animal species.This is not the first time either that china has contributed to an epidemic in recent memory.

A civilization that has given the human race everything from language to math and science but the ungrateful never appreciated but yet another great contribution to humanity which the intelligent people will recognize. World,s biggest vegetarian population, where animals are worshipped and respected not always killed and abused where a simple greeting of namaste has profound implications.

I predict India,s time as the biggest economy on this planet has been fast forwarded by this crises by several years. I initially thought this is likely to happen by 2060-2070 timeframe but it is going to happen much earlier than that.

This crisis will fast forward the exit of western corporation,s flight from china and I predict India as the biggest winner

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Re: Post-Covid19 World and India

Postby Jay » 29 Mar 2020 07:23

Economically, out dependence on foreign products, especially on Chinese for commercial critical items and on Russia/west for defense related items need to come to a complete stop. This pandemic has hit China and Pakistan hard and in my opinion has taken the threat of immediate war if not away, has given it some respite. Below steps need to be implemented on war footing once there are signs that some control is shown over the pandemic

* AIIMS type institutes with full autonomy need to be established in all states and UT. These institutes should have attached medical, and nursing schools. The intention is to make these handle these kind of future pandemics and to set standards for state, and district level hospitals.

* Funding for public health should be increased with the long term goal of achieving parity with world standards in a decade.

* Manufacturing of critical health devices and medication should be bought back to India and need be under a private/public partnership.

* Enable Indian labs, institutions, industry, and individuals to collaborate and innovate

* treat quality health care as a right of every Indian work towards that goal. Rope in or nationalize health companies if the need be.

* make it a priority to teach public on avoiding bad life styles that effect health. It’s time we print warnings in extreme sugar, and fatty products, similar to tobacco warnings.

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Re: Post-Covid19 World and India

Postby Jay » 29 Mar 2020 07:31

At a geo strategic level, plans must be made to quarantine China/Pakistan in the future, and recognize Taiwan as a country, NOW. China is a threat to global Prosperity and Pakistan to regional. Any further aid to Pakistan must be contingent on population control. We cannot have 500 mil rabid, uneducated, intolerant, disease carriers as our neighbor.

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Re: Post-Covid19 World and India

Postby Santosh » 29 Mar 2020 10:00

If European economy survives this tragedy and Trump gets re-elected, it will be perfect storm situation for China. If Biden comes back China will likely escape with a slap on the wrist. US just hasn't gotten around to accepting that China and not Russia is the biggest threat to them. Covid19 should serve as a kick in the pants. A full scale sanctions and economic warfare is needed to contain China.

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Re: Post-Covid19 World and India

Postby SriKumar » 29 Mar 2020 10:57

I think the biggest opportunity provided is to clean house internally, both figuratively and literally. I see this situation as the closest to a warlike situation that has come to the home of every Indian, in every state and not just at the borders like most wars were (KArgil, 1971 etc. etc.). Those wars truly affected only the military soldiers/their family, and only those civilians living in those border states. Citizens in the rest of the country could and did go back to regular programming after the war was over- and back to delaying files for defence procurement and talk about 'saving money because India is a poor country' and 'doing due diligence' for years and years, tolerance for corruption in infrastructure scandals etc. This 'war' has negatively affected every Amar/Akbar/Anthony in every city and town in some way or another, will be more difficult to forget once the emergency is over. Its effects on people (mental) and economy will continue for years- and this is a good thing, if the lessons learnt are enacted into the system.

0. Literally speaking, push forward on swacch bharat.
1. The 21-day lockdown is an excellent exercise to understand how various sections of Indian society will (or not) comply with govt proclamations. Good lessons to be learnt for streamlining future communication and execution. Most useful in times of war or catastrophe. Lessons for both Ajit Doval and Amit Shah.
2. Reducing/bypassing bureaucracy and babucracy: in this crisis the govt could and can still take steps to sideline some procedures and force their way past the usual delaying tactics by the usual suspects, given the urgency of the situation. Any lessons learnt here must be made permanent, where possible. Expect non-cooperation and outright hinderance by babus/others when situation comes back to normal.
3. Re-assess the degree to which freedom of religion can be invokved, in matters involveing national security (national health=national security). There are several instances in the past few weeks where religious freedom was invoked to supersede/avoid or ignore explicit govt instructions. This is the defintion of a parallel goverment and should be seen as such, and not as some 'boys will be boys', and 'we are all like that onlee' stuff. All the Indonesian and Uighur preachers who were hiding- why were they hiding. This is national security now.
4. I hope this creates some self-introspection among people on why all need to live in Tier1 citres (Hyd/Blore/Mumbai). Part of it must be real estate prices, which could drop if Work-from-home is effective. Similarily, companies hopefully should see benefit in going away from big cities.

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Re: Post-Covid19 World and India

Postby Adrija » 29 Mar 2020 12:45

Excellent thread- my compliments to BRadmins for allowing this

This is a golden opportunity for India – it has received a second chance to attract overseas manufacturing after having lost the first round to Vietnam, Bangladesh; and of course to China.

It does require a concerted effort, which hopefully the Modi govt would be able to make happen; riding on credibility of having been pro-active in handling the outbreak here in India and being ahead of the curve
It should use the lockdown opportunity to (re)promulgate the SEZ policy, and importantly, tie up with cooperative state governments to action it on the ground immediately (e.g., all of HR, Bundelkhand in UP, Mangalore region in KA, Chennai/ Erode in TN, , Pithampur in MP, Mundra and Kandla in GJ)

The major issue in making India a manufacturing hub now can largely be boiled down to expensive labour, and expensive power . Rest is either corrected (e.g., capital after the tax rate cuts) or is being corrected (the various physical infrastructure initiatives including the DFCs). SEZs should have full freedom on both these counts specifically. Please let us not get distracted- I can personally vouch for the fact that these two matter materially.
But equally importantly, the announcement should happen NOW to take advantage of the lockdown, otherwise you can imagine how ferocious and devious China’s response through its local proxies/ BIFs will be once the restrictions lift… till now they have successfully stymied even this government’s efforts

In parallel, we should focus on a few industries where we have comparative advantage even outside of the SEZs, especially textiles and pharma. For textiles, relax all the restrictions on them (including the current labour restrictions) and have a special program to help them scale up on basic weaving where again Vietnam and Bangladesh have stolen a march. In pharma, let’s have a program to integrate backward in APIs to reduce dependence on China and cater to the global market after taking the US’ covert blessings- they hold the key to making this happen (perhaps by a quid pro quo on some defense deals)

Equally importantly, we should use this to re-energize the Swachch Bharat abhiyan, as has been pointed out by many posters already

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Re: Post-Covid19 World and India

Postby Larry Walker » 29 Mar 2020 13:11

I see this tendency of invoking our history and past whenever we are shown a mirror or we just drown in jingoism. I sometimes wonder that whether those great ancestors of ours will be in shock and despair looking upon at what we have done to ourselves, our culture and our ancestral lands. Banding together in crisis is not going to make us a world leader - but having that spirit of success and hunger for glory and earning our righteous place in the commity of nations will. I fear that once this crisis is over, we will be bau - same crab mentality will come back again.

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Re: Post-Covid19 World and India

Postby Sanju » 29 Mar 2020 13:47

Larry Walker wrote:I see this tendency of invoking our history and past whenever we are shown a mirror or we just drown in jingoism. I sometimes wonder that whether those great ancestors of ours will be in shock and despair looking upon at what we have done to ourselves, our culture and our ancestral lands. Banding together in crisis is not going to make us a world leader - but having that spirit of success and hunger for glory and earning our righteous place in the commity of nations will. I fear that once this crisis is over, we will be bau - same crab mentality will come back again.


This post seems to be leading that crab parade. :roll:

Feel Good Factor
On a more positive note, the outcome of this pandemic will benefit us, firstly to show that a leadership that took steps without looking at the gora sahibs & sahibas for directions, secondly that the rest of the world seems to be in awe of our steps so far. It will increase our collective self confidence, that I see sometimes lacking.

Political Environment (Internal & External)
Our external challenges will continue to be a depressingly fast over-populated western neighbour and a soulless northern neighbour. How we handle the increasing polarisation in the community and start disciplining an unruly section of the society will go a long way in settling our internal matters.
The religious demographic changes attempted by the usual suspects, may get a hit in their pockets. This is a game of who has the deeper pockets.

Manufacturing Industries:
India can become the biggest beneficiary of a non-Chinese centric manufacturing world. China will still be the leading country in this domain, however, capitals around the world will be discussing their exposure to the current event and knowing the sino culinary delights, of the next virus round the corner.

Pharma:
We will get a really big fillip in this domain. With the spotlight on the recent Test Kit fiasco from China, we need to ramp up this industry and its allied industries of medical equipment & protective gear.

From a personal contact, who was a buyer for a large chain, we do not want to be manufacture everything like China and muck up our environment. China built these factories on the farmlands that were fertile. They will pay the price. We need to learn from their mistakes and adopt our industries with care.

As an aside, visiting Indian stores here, I saw the Social distancing like it is in India and went to Home Depot and found that there was no social distancing at all. All the WA videos from India seems to have done the trick.

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Re: Post-Covid19 World and India

Postby manju » 29 Mar 2020 14:00

I was out of home for an hour for essential work today. The streets were empty (almost) with the intent to tackle the unseen enemy- the virus. Also had to give instructions to our sangh volunteers to protect themselves when out volunteering- we have set up hand washing basins at entrance of the medical coll hospital

I also had to deal with one more work...
to sign a document transferring ownership of jointly held property to my brother. My brother said, the responsible government clerk was asking for his tips (u know what). This is the biggest invisible enemy- dishonestly. How can we use this analogy of fighting the invisible Wuhan virus where we are so disciplined and well behaved and channelize the same experience and energies to tackle the biggest virus affecting most of us Indians- dishonesty (manifests in various ways). The swacch bharat war/battle should be moved into our hearts and minds to clean our collective consciousness where we have all come to believe that dishonesty is part of life and have accepted. Modi bhai is the best equipped to do this.. When is the best time and how to do it, I am sure Modiji will know.


Disclaimer: I am generalizing here, but I am sure you get the gist and spirit of what I am saying.

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Re: Post-Covid19 World and India

Postby manju » 29 Mar 2020 14:01

Others public behaviors to be continued and reinforced
- Follow line system (Q)
- Allow personal space in Q- at stations, airports, bus stops, etc

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Re: Post-Covid19 World and India

Postby Rsatchi » 29 Mar 2020 14:38

https://theprint.in/world/netherlands-r ... ty/390717/
http://a.msn.com/01/en-gb/BB11R9f5?ocid=se
I think the days of 'Chinese Checkers' are coming to an end
The western world is waking up to the threat of China to the free world!!
Hope the leaders stay true to their words
We should keep this going on the net so that this doesn't fade from the public memory 'Chinese perfidy' how they tried to make money from others misery

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Re: Post-Covid19 World and India

Postby Zynda » 29 Mar 2020 14:56

Is this relevant here? Foreign companies operating in China have restarted their production operations back in Feb itself with Tesla apparently receiving help from CCP official. I do hope that world leaders take a look at the actions of China and its cost on the lives & economy due to COVID, but I don't have much hope on businesses. They can easily lobby to make sure the current system continues...

https://twitter.com/InfinityMessage/sta ... 4155988992

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Re: Post-Covid19 World and India

Postby VKumar » 29 Mar 2020 15:59

Hotels will have to largely revamp and restart, almost like new properties. Huge cost.

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Re: Post-Covid19 World and India

Postby Deans » 29 Mar 2020 16:04

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-im-coronavirus-contrarian-rahul-deans/?trackingId=UGyJyr5M%2F5gRWuYAd7YgEA%3D%3D

My article taking an optimistic view. The last para pertains to a post Corona world.

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Re: Post-Covid19 World and India

Postby Adrija » 29 Mar 2020 16:12

Could the government look at an interest-free 2 month payroll loan starting say April?

The mechanics and benefits:
Mechanics: This would be directly to individuals via their current payroll bank, and be a personal direct loan guaranteed by their employer. The loan amount would be 2 X February salary. Repayment duration of loan is over 12 months

Benefits
Ease liquidity pressure on employer, and allows it to focus on making business payments
Ensures no demand destruction so primes a faster recovery of the economy
No fraud- this would be same figure as Feb salary and directly to the individual in two installments (April end and May end)
No delinquencies as guaranteed by employer (which would simply adjust the payroll figure over the succeeding 12 months)
Government waives/ reimburses interest accrued (at PLR of the relevant bank); principal is secure as explained above

That would directly benefit the entire middle class, especially the lower middle class, which are prime drivers of the consumer economy; and also ensure minimal job losses arising out of any economic squeeze

And combine that with a Rs 2000 JanDhan transfer so that the non-salaried class is also covered; in case the current incentives announced already are held up as being inadequate

JM2 paise

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Re: Post-Covid19 World and India

Postby manju » 29 Mar 2020 16:39

The government can say all companies that have paid taxes will get pay roll loan proportionate to their tax filings. Thus incentivze (is there such a word?) companies for filing taxes and helping them proportionate to the portion that they have filed in Number 1 account ( I am not an expert in accounting so pardon my use of terminologies- I hope you get the drift)

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Re: Post-Covid19 World and India

Postby Adrija » 29 Mar 2020 17:14

The government can say all companies that have paid taxes will get pay roll loan proportionate to their tax filings. Thus incentivze (is there such a word?) companies for filing taxes and helping them proportionate to the portion that they have filed in Number 1 account ( I am not an expert in accounting so pardon my use of terminologies- I hope you get the drift)


Yes, manjuji... exactly- if it is through a bank, then it will automatically be restricted to their legitimate declared (taxable) income

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Re: Post-Covid19 World and India

Postby Bart S » 29 Mar 2020 18:03

I am not a fan of The Economist, and the situation is still fluid, but posting as these are important data points.

(India (2020/21 fiscal year) 2.1 6) seems to be coming out of this with much lesser impact than most other countries. Fingers crossed that this holds through while we deal with COVID successfully. I am also cautiously optimistic that COVID forced GOI and RBI to take some overdue decisions that organizational inertia and policy paralysis would have otherwise stalled, so this might very likely result in a new burst of economic activity.

Code: Select all

Revised growth forecasts for G20 countries in 2020
Real GDP growth; Previous forecast (before outbreak)
Argentina   -6.7   -2
Australia   -0.4   2
Brazil   -5.5   2.4
Canada   -1.3   1.8
China   1   5.9
France   -5   1
Germany   -6.8   0.9
India (2020/21 fiscal year)   2.1   6
Indonesia   1   5.1
Italy   -7   0.4
Japan   -1.5   0.4
South Korea   -1.8   2.2
Mexico   -5.4   1.1
Russia   -2   1.6
Saudi Arabia   -5   1
South Africa   -3   1.4
Turkey   -3   3.8
UK   -5   1.1
US   -2.8   1.7
Global (market exchange rates)   -2.2   2.3



https://www.eiu.com/n/covid-19-to-send- ... recession/

p.s Despite India being the top performing economy in that list, the constipated folks at the Economist carefully omitted mention of India in their article.

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Re: Post-Covid19 World and India

Postby rgosain » 29 Mar 2020 18:37

Deans wrote:https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-im-coronavirus-contrarian-rahul-deans/?trackingId=UGyJyr5M%2F5gRWuYAd7YgEA%3D%3D

My article taking an optimistic view. The last para pertains to a post Corona world.


Thank you for a very cogent discussion on the steps way ahead. This is very timely because in the UK it looks as if there a major reassessment of the role of the PRC in the UK industry and academia. Whether or not there is a return to business as usual remains to be seen as vast swathes of the uk academic landscape is beholden to the prc and the money brought in by the students

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163707/Chinas-efforts-blame-coronavirus-army-delegation-Wuhan-infuriate-No-10.html

Simple steps that one can take to exclude prc products is to insist that all cosmetic or drug reagents have to vegan or vegetarian standard, as well as satisying relegious sensibilities. Clearly a country with china's track record doesn't really pass muster.

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Re: Post-Covid19 World and India

Postby arshyam » 29 Mar 2020 18:50

A post-Covid world should be a post-"China century" world. To that extent, this Covid should be linked with Wuhan and China in all possible fora, and keep hammering this connection. There is a strategic benefit to it, as it will prevent countries from forgetting what happened and go back and put all their eggs in the Chinese basket. China is, and will do its utmost, to erase this connection and blame someone else, and that should be resisted vigorously.

To that end, India should keep hammering China (can't depend on others but we should lead by example). And within India, I humbly request BRF, and specifically this thread, keep that front and centre, starting with the name of this otherwise excellent thread.

Instead of "Post-Covid19 World and India", could we please rename to something like "India and the world, post-Wuhan Virus"? Basically keep the China connection somewhere.

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Re: Post-Covid19 World and India

Postby Bart S » 29 Mar 2020 19:29

This is Chinese racism and attitude about India. They must be made to pay a price.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1244 ... 43201.html

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby suryag » 29 Mar 2020 19:57

We are still in the first half of 2020, some loss in productivity and growth can be recovered by switching to six day week i.e., from Sunday-Friday. IT can be propagated through twitter with some tag and see retweet counts; low level workers will anyways works if they are offered work.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby putnanja » 29 Mar 2020 22:25

There is this interesting thread on Chinese Virus. Raises lots of doubts about intention of Chinese. Millions of Chinese are supposed to have gone out of Wuhan, but yet, the number of WuhanVirus cases in other parts of China are much less than what Europe & USA are facing, why??

Chinese virus

The Corona Virus travelled entire world from #Wuhan but it did not reached Beijing and Shanghai.

Can anybody put light?

Looks So Logical. After all Chinese Stock Market didn't crash. American and European Markets did. 1/n

...
THE GREAT CHINESE STAGE

1. Create a virus and the antidote.

2. Spread the virus.

3. A demonstration of efficiency, building hospitals in a few days. 2/n

After all, you were already prepared, with the projects, ordering the equipment, hiring the labor, the water and sewage network, the prefabricated building materials and stocked in an impressive volume.

4. Cause chaos in the world, starting with Europe.

5. Quickly plaster the economy of dozens of countries.

6. Stop production lines in factories in other countries.

7. Cause stock markets to fall and buy companies at a bargain price.

8. Quickly control the epidemic in your country. After all, you were already prepared.

9. Lower the price of oil you buy on a large scale.

10. Get back to producing quickly while the world is at a standstill. Buy what you negotiated cheaply in the crisis and sell more expensive what is lacking in countries that have paralyzed their Industries

Please read the book by Chinese colonels Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui, from 1999, “Unrestricted Warfare: China’s master plan to destroy America”, on Amazon. It's all there.

Worth pondering..
Just Think about it.

How come #COVID19 didn't hit Russia & North Korea? Because they are staunch ally of China. On the other hand South Korea / United Kingdom / Italy / Spain and Asia are severely hit. How come Wuhan is suddenly free from the deadly virus?

China will say that their drastic initial measures they took was very stern and Wuhan was locked down to contain the spread to other areas. I am sure they are using the Anti dode of the virus.

8/n

Why Beijing was not hit? Why only Wuhan? #Wuhan is open for business now. America and all the above mentioned countries are devastated financially. Soon American economy will collapse as planned by China. China knows it cannot defeat America Militarily as USA is at present.

9/n

So China use the virus to cripple the economy and paralyse the nation and its Defense capabilities. I'm sure Nancy Pelosi got a part in this to topple Trump.

Lately President
@realDonaldTrump
was always telling of how Great American economy was improving in all fronts. 10/n

The only way to destroy his vision of making 'AMERICA GREAT AGAIN' is to create an economic havoc. Nancy Pelosi was unable to bring down Trump thru impeachment. So work along with China to destroy
@realDonaldTrump
by releasing a virus. Wuhans epidemic was a showcase. 11/n

At the peak of the virus epidemic.

China's President Xi Jinping just wore a simple RM1 facemask to visit those effected areas. As President he should be covered from head to toe but it was not the case. He was already injected to resist any harm from the virus

Now China is also telling that the virus was predicted well in advance. so that its agenda would play along well to match that prediction. China's vision is to control the World economy by buying up stocks now from countries facing the brink of severe ECONOMIC COLLAPSE. 13/n

China will announce that their Med Researchers have found a cure to destroy the virus. Now China have other countries stocks in their arsenal & these countries will soon be slave to their master. The Doctor Who declared this virus was also Silenced by the Chinese Authorities.

...

Corona Virus put whole world on knees except China.

Read the First paragraph in the article where it's clearly written that China defeated the deadly Virus.
...
Shanghai Reopened 205 Cinemas after two months.

China created fear sycosis of #CoronaVirus so, that no one from outside can dare to visit china and see actual situation.

In a recent statement, China Said we will not allow anyone from outside to visit China due to #COVID2019.

...
Some people believe that, the virus was engineered in the lab by humans as a bioweapon. In another version, the virus was being studied in the lab (after being isolated from animals) and then “escaped” or “leaked” because of poor safety protocol.

...
...
Why recovery rate is high only in China when US is far much better than China in every aspect.

Think, Think, Think

...

Wuhan to Shanghai = 839 km
Wuhan to Beijing = 1152 km
Milan from Wuhan = 15000 km
Wuhan to New York = 15000 km
Wuhan to Italy = 8695km
Wuhan to India = 3695 km
Wuhan to Iran = 5667 km
Corona has no effect in nearby
Beijing / Shanghai But deaths in Italy, Iran, European countries
...
All business areas of China are safe
Something is fishy.

That America is blaming China is correct.

These are the some questions to ponder over:

(Must read question number 6,7,8,9).
....
1) Where the whole world is being affected by this, why did it not spread anywhere in China except Wuhan? How did China's capital remain untouched by this?

2) Why did China hide from the whole world about the virus?

3) Why destroyed the initial sample of Corona?
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China has bought 30% shares of all big companies of Europe and America at low prices when their economy went down and now when the world is down, china is in profits.

Research by:- (Kunika Agarwal)
...
This book was published in 1981 and the Author legit said that China has developed a virus in a lab of Wuhan which they will use as a biological weapon in future to help them become a Superpower.

And for those who think this isn’t true, go google it, "The Eyes of Darkness".
...
..
Go through page 353 in the book "The Eyes Of Darkness" written by Dean Koontz.

The book was published in 1981, and it's clearly written in the book that the #CoronaVirus was Made in a lab in his city of Wuhan, the most hidden, later china will use it to reduce the population.
...
Chinese scientists have developed a new weapon to combat the #coronavirus. They say they have found a nanomaterial that can absorb and deactivate the virus with 96.5-99.9% efficiency.

Before couple of days i said, soon China will claim that we have found Anti-dote of #COVID19.
...
...


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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby CalvinH » 29 Mar 2020 22:42

Can this event lead to first demonstration of a national will. A nation under one leader and one cause.

I see left-liberals are already sensing this and trying to run down the lockdown as unplanned disaster.

For the Chinese part I don't see much impact to Chinese economy. Chinese will soon be overwhelming the academics and media with their money to provide themselves a favorable position. They already had made deep in-roots into these two pillars of society and now its just about pumping money to build a narrative. Anything against China will be discarded as a conspiracy theory by main stream media and academics.

Some diversification in global supply chain is inevitable but how much India gains out of it is needs to be seen. A lot also depends on what India does with that opportunity.

Overall Indian economy will not take a great hit but this could finally push EU further down.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Bart S » 29 Mar 2020 22:47

suryag wrote:We are still in the first half of 2020, some loss in productivity and growth can be recovered by switching to six day week i.e., from Sunday-Friday. IT can be propagated through twitter with some tag and see retweet counts; low level workers will anyways works if they are offered work.


Sorry, but most of these 'lazy IT bums' are working from home throughout this lockdown, unlike others who might have a break from work. In fact a lot of IT people are having to do much more than their regular quota of work, under trying conditions, in order to keep telecom, billing and other IT systems that let the world function up and running despite the disruptive impact of COVID. Most of the non-MNC workers work 6 days or at least 5.5 days a week anyway.
Last edited by suryag on 29 Mar 2020 23:51, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: apologies

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby suryag » 29 Mar 2020 22:55

Sir kindly dont get offended, am one of those bums, made the comment in a lighter vein similar to one fat person calling another fat person fatso. However, my larger point is we as a nation can start looking at working 6 days a week to recover lost output that was my point

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Bart S » 29 Mar 2020 23:29

suryag wrote:Sir kindly dont get offended, am one of those bums, made the comment in a lighter vein similar to one fat person calling another fat person fatso. However, my larger point is we as a nation can start looking at working 6 days a week to recover lost output that was my point


No offense taken, and I am sure that IT people will be willing to work Saturdays if needed. However the rest of the population (the vast majority) works Saturdays anyways, so may not result in a huge boost in productivity. Probably lowering of the interest rates and expansion of lending will do the trick in terms of restarting business activity.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby suryag » 29 Mar 2020 23:31

Agree that the IT people are okie but what we need is also GoI/State Govt employees/Non-IT segment to accept this, between the state and central we have close to 1 crore employees add on other employees in manufacturing sector and if they can work 6 days it will be an amazing thing. GoI can drop in individual tax breaks if they intend to do so.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby ramana » 29 Mar 2020 23:48

Putnanja, Please dont poist articles like that. Its not germane to thread.
Suryag, Don't use sarcasm here.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby ramana » 29 Mar 2020 23:48

COVID-19 IS A new bio war front. The soldiers are the medical care profession: doctors, nurses, hospitals, workers, Pharma, drug distribution, research labs, education institutes, revamping biology curriculum even in high schools, public health administration.
We need the doctors here to think for post COVID-19 era. We should expect out breaks every year with new viruses. Ramana

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby ArjunPandit » 30 Mar 2020 04:34

ramana wrote:COVID-19 IS A new bio war front. The soldiers are the medical care profession: doctors, nurses, hospitals, workers, Pharma, drug distribution, research labs, education institutes, revamping biology curriculum even in high schools, public health administration.
We need the doctors here to think for post COVID-19 era. We should expect out breaks every year with new viruses. Ramana
good point Ramana ji. While I had put some CT at the time of nipah virus, even I didn't imagine anything to reach
This scale and magnitude. Think about it multi billion dollar aircraft carrier had to be taken offline, The world's sole super power and tier 2 powers has been left scrambling for answers. In addition to complete paralysis of global economy. Assuming, even if it is not a bio weapon the impact has been devastating. The military application can't be ruled out in future.
The question that confront a moral nation like ours are
1. do we prepare to play dirty apart from bolstering our defence?
2. Speaking of defence, this gives us opportunities to increase spending in Swatch Bharat,
3. Such events give us an opportunity to reset many things internally in financial system. Apart from the due clean up with strong arm, govt should open purse. Else we're doomed.
4. I see this event as a planning for full scale war too. What would be the impact on different strata. What services can be run.
Few questions for the global order are due too
1. UN, WHO have shown their impotence in this crisis and for last 20 years since Iraq war. Could this be the Manchuria moment? The world order needs to be badly updated
2. What's to be done for China? The least Anglo saxons can do is to treat China as a cold war foe, the best would be to sanction economically.
Now with the calculus of China, if a adversarial approach is chosen, US can start working on scs, Xinjiang, and Tibet, in that order. Remember China's inroads in latam haven't gone unnoticed in eyes of hawks. They know that China can do a lot more with its resources size and drone population that is intelligent, hard working and largely patriotic. Now if it's SCS, may be India will see a little bit of benefit. With Xinjiang India will be a looser as papis will be a willing and bending mistress. Tibet again India, but only if India chooses to play the ball. If last 70 years area any measure, then no. But then I concede that a lot has changed in last 6 too. I'm raisina dialogue s jaishankar stated that India will be in India's side. May be wiser men like rudradev, and others can illuminate us all.
3. I will stick my neck and make a prediction, this crisis will accelerate what ulanbatori ji and I had discussed on AI thread last year, that with good internet speeds people could and should work from remote locations. I have hardly any problems in working from home with my son at back and shq on head an the time. Basically deurbanisation. Think of its impact, the crash in cre, and hre including rentals. Why do I need to stay in office wasting 2 hrs everyday? Why spend money on expensive suits ties and shoes, when my t-shirt and shorts at home work just fine. Yes I can go twice a week and teams can alternate Tu reduce office costs. Consults operate on this mode all the time. We can meet in all ways. Just like 2001 crisis precipitated outsourcing this one would accelerate deurbanisation. A lot of jobs in India and corporate globally can be done remotely if in same time zone. Think of the fact that many women can also work because of this. It's been 3 weeks wfh and I think I'm working with 70-80% efficiency. The implications can be huge on humanity. Perhaps the old Indian village model may be back. Yes there will be mass production conclaves but still..
There's an ancient Chinese curse, may you live in interesting times. We definitely are. This is our lives third once in 100 year event, first two being 9/11, 2008, and this one.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby rahulm » 30 Mar 2020 05:30

China spree sparks FIRB crackdown behind paywall


The (Australian) federal government has placed severe, immediate and indefinite restrictions on all foreign investment bids following at least two cases of Chinese-owned companies in Australia securing tonnes of precious medical supplies and shipping them back to China.

Effective from 10.30pm Sunday, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg lowered to zero the dollar value of every foreign investment bid that would trigger scrutiny by the Foreign Investment Review Board and then, ultimately, by him.


Under the change, the threshold is zero for everything, meaning all bids will have to be weighed against the national interest.

As well as protecting distressed Australian businesses and assets from fire sale takeovers, the crackdown was sparked after two Chinese-owned property developers, Greenland Australia and Risland Australia, had staff secure more than 100 tonnes of equipment and ship it back home.

Greenland employees sourced bulk supplies of surgical masks, thermometers, antibacterial wipes, hand sanitiser, gloves and Panadol in January and February as the coronavirus took hold in its point of origin, Wuhan, and spread throughout China.
These measures are necessary to safeguard the national interest as the coronavirus outbreak puts intense pressure on the Australian economy and Australian businesses.


Josh Frydenberg, Treasurer

This is not an investment freeze. Australia is open for business and recognises investment at this time can be beneficial if in the national interest,'' he said in a statement.

"However, these measures are necessary to safeguard the national interest as the coronavirus outbreak puts intense pressure on the Australian economy and Australian businesses.

"These are temporary measures that will remain in place for the duration of the current crisis.


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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby vimal » 30 Mar 2020 08:04

My take:

1. US Elections are just a few months away and DT will not want to take more risk with economy. This will allow China to continue doing what it's doing.
2. China will survive this storm. They've already kickstarted their economy and controlled their lab produced virus. It will take the whole of 2020 for the rest of the world to even catch their breath (literally) so Hans have a huge lead.
3. US and World Economy is in dumps, Airlines, Housing, Tourism is dead for a few years at least. A lot of European and Asian countries that depend on Tourism will be devastated.
4. Unless EU/US play wake in the next new weeks, China might be able snag a massive amount of stocks for valuable companies for pennies. Once they have enough stake China will remote control everything. It's game over.
5. India might get something that is better than before but I do not foresee anything happening so soon.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby chola » 30 Mar 2020 08:34

At least in the short and maybe medium term, China will remain critical to the global medical supply chain. There is nothing to be done since no one else has the industrial capacity to chug out medical supplies (or anything else) in such volume.

The US is the other largest manufacturing nation on earth but it can't target industries as quickly. The US can't even supply its own needs now. Cheen supplied itself during its own AND now it is supplying the US and Europe during theirs.

Americans might hate chinis but they need them right now. And that need will become favors owed in the future.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/business/economy/coronavirus-china-supplies.html


White House Airlifts Medical Supplies From China in Coronavirus Fight

Officials have teamed up with medical supply companies to speed the arrival of masks, gloves, gowns and other goods.

WASHINGTON — A commercial aircraft carrying 80 tons of gloves, masks, gowns and other medical supplies from Shanghai touched down in New York on Sunday, the first of 22 scheduled flights that White House officials say will funnel much-needed goods to the United States by early April as it battles the world’s largest coronavirus outbreak.

The plane delivered 130,000 N95 masks, 1.8 million face masks and gowns, 10 million gloves and thousands of thermometers for distribution to New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, said Lizzie Litzow, a spokeswoman for the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Ms. Litzow said that flights would be arriving in Chicago on Monday and in Ohio on Tuesday, and that supplies would be sent from there to other states using private-sector distribution networks.

While the goods that arrived in New York on Sunday will be welcomed by hospitals and health care workers — some of whom have resorted to rationing protective gear or using homemade supplies — they represent just a tiny portion of what American hospitals need. The Department of Health and Human Services has estimated that the United States will require 3.5 billion masks if the pandemic lasts a year.

That overwhelming demand has set off a race among foreign countries, American officials at all levels of government and private individuals to acquire protective gear, ventilators and other much-needed goods from China, where newly built factories are churning out supplies even as China’s own epidemic wanes.

“China has abundant protective equipment now, and the rest of the world has a huge shortage,” said James McGregor, the chairman of greater China for APCO Worldwide.

...

American governors, mayors and lawmakers have been trying to arrange their own shipments of products from China, with some saying the federal government has been moving too slowly, which risks losing out to other foreign buyers. American officials have leaned on sister cities and province relationships, liaison offices they had set up in China to attract investment and connections with state-run Chinese companies to try to secure scarce equipment.

...

In the private sector, a variety of wealthy individuals, charitable organizations and corporate executives with connections to China have also stepped forward to try to help get goods to the United States.

Jack Ma, the Chinese billionaire and co-founder of Alibaba, is funneling one million masks and 500,000 tests to the United States. The Committee of 100, a leadership organization of Americans of Chinese descent, has raised $1 million to purchase medical supplies and protective gear from around the world to bring to the United States.

Li Lu, the chairman of Himalaya Capital Management, said he was helping to arrange a shipment to the United States of one million masks made by BYD, a Chinese automaker of which Himalaya Capital is a part owner.

Since January, Mr. Li had helped to send more than $1.4 million of medical supplies from all over the world to Wuhan, where the outbreak first began. But by the beginning of March, as China was slowly recovering from its epidemic and a crisis was looming in the West, Mr. Li realized he needed to send the supplies in the other direction.


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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby SaiK » 30 Mar 2020 08:50

I see forced identification and GPS based tagging made mandatory for all infected people to be monitored.. GoI trying to handle hot-spots will not work that easily. Mobile devices can be tracked. RFID tags, or similar identification must be issued to all quarantined people.

Cost of it is not even in pennies compared to the disaster it is causing.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby chola » 30 Mar 2020 08:57

vimal wrote:My take:

1. US Elections are just a few months away and DT will not want to take more risk with economy. This will allow China to continue doing what it's doing.
2. China will survive this storm. They've already kickstarted their economy and controlled their lab produced virus. It will take the whole of 2020 for the rest of the world to even catch their breath (literally) so Hans have a huge lead.
3. US and World Economy is in dumps, Airlines, Housing, Tourism is dead for a few years at least. A lot of European and Asian countries that depend on Tourism will be devastated.
4. Unless EU/US play wake in the next new weeks, China might be able snag a massive amount of stocks for valuable companies for pennies. Once they have enough stake China will remote control everything. It's game over.
5. India might get something that is better than before but I do not foresee anything happening so soon.


From where the MNCs stand, Cheen will be also critical in the post ChiniVirus economic recovery.

F500 corporate boards are now dependent on their chini operations to provide some income now that their US and European markets are locked down. Tesla and GM needs the chini market to come back online while the US obe is going off. Apple and Starbucks had re-opened all their chini stores while those in the US are shut down. Disney needs the chini box office and their Shanghai park to provide something to the corporate bottom line as those in the US now generate nothing. We heard great painful rumblings on the Street last week when Cheen cut off international flights to once a week.

Unless India steps up and provide both market and manufacture capacity both of which will require major liberalization of tariff and investment policies then unfortunately we cannot move the Lizard off his perch.

In the long term, the trade war had kicked re-indigenization. Away from globalization. All major nations and regions will try to build their own industrial eco-systems. That will weaken Cheen in the long term but it won't help us either. Cheen (and Japan and Korea) had already benefited from globalization to advance their economies but others won't have the same opportunity.

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Re: Post-Covid19 World and India

Postby KLNMurthy » 30 Mar 2020 12:06

Larry Walker wrote:I see this tendency of invoking our history and past whenever we are shown a mirror or we just drown in jingoism. I sometimes wonder that whether those great ancestors of ours will be in shock and despair looking upon at what we have done to ourselves, our culture and our ancestral lands. Banding together in crisis is not going to make us a world leader - but having that spirit of success and hunger for glory and earning our righteous place in the commity of nations will. I fear that once this crisis is over, we will be bau - same crab mentality will come back again.

Let me offer a different pov.

I don’t believe that the so-called national flaws are self-inflicted wounds at all. I believe they are the collective psychological and intellectual deformities that are the consequences of deep trauma inflicted on our people over the centuries.

V.S. Naipaul was right, India is a “wounded civilization.” And in many ways, crippled. Once we acknowledge this fact, we can begin national healing, and liberate ourselves to become, and to be, our true selves as we were meant to be, and as the great ones from Vivekananda to Kalam to Modi have been trying to teach us.

The present crisis won’t instantly restore us, but weathering it satisfactorily will take us a good way towards becoming whole.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Aarvee » 30 Mar 2020 12:28

Its coming!
https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/ ... 54f3x.html

Ministers have privately expressed anger at the way China's obsession with secrecy has hampered the global response to the virus, with suggestions from scientific advisers that the true number of infections could be 40 times higher than Beijing has admitted.

Iain Duncan Smith, the former Tory leader who has led calls for Huawei to be locked out of 5G contracts, said yesterday that the virus should lead to a "rethink" of how dependent Britain has become on China and a shift in foreign policy.

"It is bigger than just Huawei. China dominates everything and this should be a massive wake-up call to the government," Duncan Smith said.

On the question of why Germany was so far ahead of the UK in its testing regime, Gove said: "It's certainly the case that the Germans have had success in testing. There are other countries that are also ramping up testing, but the acceleration here in the UK is significant.

"Frankly the most important thing is not to look backwards but to look forwards and to do everything that we can to increase the number of tests.

"Once this dreadful epidemic is over there will be an opportunity to look back and to learn appropriate lessons."


Hope they will walk the walk.


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