Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

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chola
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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby chola » 30 Mar 2020 12:54

Aarvee wrote:Its coming!
https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/ ... 54f3x.html

Ministers have privately expressed anger at the way China's obsession with secrecy has hampered the global response to the virus, with suggestions from scientific advisers that the true number of infections could be 40 times higher than Beijing has admitted.

Iain Duncan Smith, the former Tory leader who has led calls for Huawei to be locked out of 5G contracts, said yesterday that the virus should lead to a "rethink" of how dependent Britain has become on China and a shift in foreign policy.

"It is bigger than just Huawei. China dominates everything and this should be a massive wake-up call to the government," Duncan Smith said.

On the question of why Germany was so far ahead of the UK in its testing regime, Gove said: "It's certainly the case that the Germans have had success in testing. There are other countries that are also ramping up testing, but the acceleration here in the UK is significant.

"Frankly the most important thing is not to look backwards but to look forwards and to do everything that we can to increase the number of tests.

"Once this dreadful epidemic is over there will be an opportunity to look back and to learn appropriate lessons."


Hope they will walk the walk.


Huawei had table scraps and crumbs before. Now it'll have even less than that. It wouldn't matter much.

The key is whether the UK continue trading with Cheen after Brexit and the mess with US economy. The odds are they will still buy their PPE from Cheen because the Britshits are woefully unprepared.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby g.sarkar » 30 Mar 2020 14:42

https://www.spiegel.de/international/ge ... f2c8d5ca18
What Next?
Attention Slowly Turns to the Mother of All Coronavirus Questions
The fight against the coronavirus has paralyzed society and the economy. Lockdown measures are fine for the short term, but they threaten to rapidly destroy the economy and erode our existing social order. What should the next steps be?
27.03.2020

The storm has already begun ravaging several countries, but in many others, it is still approaching. The coffins are piling up in Bergamo, while in Wuhan, they are counting their graves. Hospitals in Madrid, Paris and Tehran are struggling to keep up, and the virus is racing through the population of New York. In India, the government has asked its 1.3 billion people to observe a 21-day quarantine. The black clouds of COVID-19 are gathering over Africa and the Americas.
People say it is impossible to predict coming events, but when an existential threat appears, our attention turns to the future. Will I become infected? Will my mother survive? For how long will this virus be present? How many people will die? How much damage will it cause? Will I still have work when it is over? Will my company survive the next six weeks? How long can the children stand being cooped up in the apartment? How long will I have to stay at home? They are huge, frightening questions - made all the more scary by the fact that they have no answers. And because life still has to go on. Somehow.
When faced with an invisible threat, enlightened societies turn to scientists and researchers – virologists and mathematicians, epidemiologists and statisticians, economists, psychologists, sociologists and therapists. They can't see the future either, but they know rules, laws and patterns that could at least shine a bit of light into the current darkness. Governments around the world are now poring over expert advice and examining models and scenarios. Faced with forecasts of large numbers of deaths and a potential collapse of health-care systems, countries have closed borders and ordered entire populations to stay at home.
Already, though, another question has begun demanding our attention: For how long can we continue like this? How long can the economy survive? How can we resolve the tension between public and economic health? From an ethical perspective, it is impossible to balance economic growth against physical wellbeing. But should a healthy economy be ruined in pursuit of the ideal response envisioned by virologists and other medical professionals. And how long can democracies limit people's freedoms to the degree we are currently experiencing? Germany hasn't yet been completely shut down, but Italy, Spain and France have. For what length of time can the people of those countries be prohibited from going out?
.....
Gautam

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby kit » 30 Mar 2020 15:16

chola wrote:
Aarvee wrote:Its coming!
https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/ ... 54f3x.html




Hope they will walk the walk.


Huawei had table scraps and crumbs before. Now it'll have even less than that. It wouldn't matter much.

The key is whether the UK continue trading with Cheen after Brexit and the mess with US economy. The odds are they will still buy their PPE from Cheen because the Britshits are woefully unprepared.


Britain is very much dependent on china for most of consumer goods and capital , the chinese are investing in power plants and real estate

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby vinod » 30 Mar 2020 15:45

There is generally going to be trend of reversal of out-sourcing. So, most nations will now start bringing in laws or taxes which facilitate production in their countries itself. So, that means, it will affect India in terms of IT and Pharmaceuticals.
There is real anger towards China. So, that will manifest in them losing lot of opportunities in western world. China will have to counter this - probably threats, currency manipulation, low taxes, other incentives will be in full play. New alliances will have to be formed. CV is going ravage Africa. testing kits, medicines, other equipments will need to be given to them. Will there be a scramble for Africa again?

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Larry Walker » 30 Mar 2020 16:28

Generally regime change wars are modern tools of colonisation, but in some rare justified scenarios it may be like establishing Dharma. Overthrowing current hegemonic and genocidal ruler of PRC who will not blink even when pushing humanity into a chasm of despair and destitute just to achieve world dominance suddenly to me starts looking like a Dharma-yudh where the commity of nations should band together and support USA. Goal would not be to defeat PRC or its people, but remove this top layer of evil who have disdain for all humanity just to achieve their supremacy.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby amar_p » 30 Mar 2020 18:01

My predictions for 2021-22 timeframe
+ Most western countries and other developed countries who can afford it, will take a hard look at re-insourcing vital/strategic items manufacturing starting with medicines, medical equipment, chemical reagents and other weak link items
+ Supply chain dependencies on China will be studied for vulnerabilities and rectified - loss of Chinese dominance in many areas
+ No one country in Europe can afford to do all these alone or quickly enough, making a case for meaningful, measurable cooperation at Europe level. That will be a welcome change from left leaning woke policies and action vacuum that have decredibilised EU and led to Brexit
+ Disaster response & Health management fields will also find support to be normalised and coordinated at EU level
Immigration rules will get tighter since many countries will be struggling with weak economies due to high deficits caused by stimulus packages
+ Aid packages for developing economies will dry up, the very poor countries will still get humanitarian aid
+ Unless there is a regional war in the ME, Oil prices will stay low for the next decade
+ Remote working, e-learning & e-commerce, e-entertainment etc will emerge as ever stronger alternatives to suburb-downtown-suburb, home-school-home, home-shop/mall-home routines
+ Reports of cleaner air and lesser environmental impact observed in many parts of the world since lock down will support the above
+ Many Airlines will be nationalised and trimmed down as passenger volumes will take a long time to recover. Tourism & Entertainment industry will suffer for a long time to come
+ General consumption slump plus the population's love lost for Made in China products will seriously undermine China's exports
International community will frown upon new regional conflicts and adventurism, will take a very hard stance on global terrorism
+ Belt & Road initiative will get a belting and get thrown off the road.
+ The image of US as a leader in many fields will take a hit
+ UK will suffer the most in terms of economy, influence and currency strength.
+ Sub-saharan Africa will be the biggest human catastrophy on the planet and will unfortunately lose a lot of development momentum gained in the past 2 decades.
+ The world will get used to anaemic growth for a while
+ UN as an organisation will get questioned even more due to WHO's poor role in this crisis.
+ Climate change activism will continue - any catastrophy will be used as an argument, but will lose popularity
+ The multipolar world that EAM Jaishankar has spoken about will be an undeniable reality

India specific (on top of many of the above as applicable to our context):
+ Lot of negativity will remain in the population for China and Chinese products among Indians
+ GoI will keep relations with China at best in a lukewarm state
+ Indo-Pacific and the Group of 4 initiatives will pay off big time and bring many nations much closer to India due to numerous convergences in many many areas
+ India's UNSC seat may still not happen because UN itself will be questioned and while many will agree UN needs serious reform, it will take time and no P5 country will put a lot of effort into it.
+ Modi-BJP will be stronger than ever in India. Congress will be gone. Regional parties will remain, but may end up in coalitions with BJP.
+ Modi Govt will push more internal reforms & digitization in administration, police, internal security will be modernised with greater track & trace capabilities on citizen. NPR, NCR, UCC reforms will take a back seat.
+ After a few quarters of low growth/recession, we will bounce back and get used to 2.5-3.5% growth rate, and still be a fast growing economy.
+ Overall the country will emerge more nationalistic and united.
+ Indian industry will not necessarily take over all MFG lost by China, but will definitely benefit, and this will help maintain the growth rate.
+ Indian IT exports will suffer significantly due to spending cuts by foreign clients, travel risks and increased remote working costs.
+ More investments in AI and touch less technologies, and not just in medicine but many other fields.
+ Defense investment & spend will reduce, forcing armed forces to optimise and innovate.

Overall, India will emerge bruised but not battered from this crisis, and bounce back strongly - which will be a phenomenal achievement given our population and size

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Suresh S » 30 Mar 2020 23:28

I agree with KLN above. he gets it in contrast to many who do not.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Sravan » 31 Mar 2020 00:47

Seems like the truth is going to leak.


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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby V_Raman » 31 Mar 2020 00:53

China is doing what is good for them. I dont care how they run their society. It is our mistake to have given so much leverage to them. They have not waged physical war on anyone. Move the supply chain out if you can.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Varoon Shekhar » 31 Mar 2020 03:19

Being totally amoral about what China has done (the old they are just supporting their interests bit) isn't good. China should be condemned strongly, vociferously for the damage they have caused. But no doubt, this should definitely cause India and other countries to massively rethink their relations with China, so that it doesn't have any leverage over them. Or as little as possible.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Bart S » 31 Mar 2020 03:29

V_Raman wrote:China is doing what is good for them. I dont care how they run their society. It is our mistake to have given so much leverage to them. They have not waged physical war on anyone. Move the supply chain out if you can.


Is physical war the only thing that requires to be countered? Financial war? Propaganda war? Biological weapons? Subversion of media and politicians using the tools of open democracies against them?

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby SriKumar » 31 Mar 2020 04:19

V_Raman wrote:China is doing what is good for them. I dont care how they run their society. It is our mistake to have given so much leverage to them. They have not waged physical war on anyone. Move the supply chain out if you can.
I've said it once before and will say it again: At one point in the past, how China governed itself was China's internal business. Not so anymore....what they do internally can destrory your economy and livelihoods for years (not to mention, kill thousands). It is happening now across the entire planet, literally. So no additional proof is required.

The govt of China (not its people but its govt) HAS to be held responsible for what they had full control over: sharing the nature of the infection, the number of infected and the manner of spread of the disease (i'm not faulting anyone for what they eat). This information was within its control and they chose to cover this. This has directly lead to the massive disruption in many countries, and evolving in others. When your neighbour is raising snakes in his garage, and one gets loose, what he does in the privacy of his home is no longer just his private business. You have to look at the sanity and judgement of the neighbour, and get involved in the situation. Or else you are condemned to learn this lesson twice, and who wants that? I only hope people remember this 1 year from now. Sometimes, people's memories are short.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Gerard » 31 Mar 2020 05:57

How China’s Lies Brought The World To Its Knees
“I think nations are going to question their dependence on one another through the global supply chain, and I think people are going to rethink whether it’s a good idea to be so reliant on a totalitarian China that blames everyone else in the world for their problems, and is not a responsible stakeholder or honest broker. One outcome of this is that the perception of China as a bad actor is going to be crystallized,” said Kazianis.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if you see a sort of Cold War-like containment strategy towards China after this. I think that’s where Trump was going with trade before this happened, but I think now you’ll see a lot of other countries rethinking their reliance on China as well,” Kazianis added.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Jay » 31 Mar 2020 07:00

It needs to be drilled into Indian psyche that equates Chinese maal with virus. No ifs and buts, just get the information and sentiment out. Propagate desi products and companies in the name of dharma and self preservation. Let’s bring back the industry that was decimated by generations of foreign rule. All existing rules must be cast aside and a new play book should be re-written.
Last edited by Jay on 31 Mar 2020 07:56, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby chola » 31 Mar 2020 07:43

So solly everybloody.

As much as we want Cheen punished (punishing a nation for a disease opens a dangerous can of worms but that is another story), the world still needs them to pull the global economy out of recession again like in 2008.

They are the only ones with the financial and industrial muscles to do so especially now that Europe and the US are locked down.

https://www.ft.com/content/b19ffca2-7030-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

China should stand up to revive global demand

Beijing could show leadership by running current account deficits

March 29, 2020 5:54 pm by The editorial board

The economic fallout from the pandemic is starting to feel like 2008 reprised. Share prices have slumped. The global economy is lurching toward recession and unemployment is swelling. Once again, policymakers, investors and others are asking a crucial question: can China revive the world’s economy?

China — where the coronavirus outbreak originated — appears on track to stage the first recovery among leading economies. Key metrics such as real estate sold, coal used in power stations and traffic congestion are all on the increase, suggesting at least a measured recuperation in demand. But the unpalatable reality is that China — and the world — find themselves in very different positions today than they did in 2008. Beijing then led the world’s return to growth by pushing out a massive $590bn stimulus package that was equivalent to 13 per cent of its 2008 GDP. By contrast, the US and Japan pumped a comparatively modest $152bn and $100bn into their larger domestic markets.
...

Beijing has made it a policy priority to bring down credit growth. Thus, if Xi Jinping, China’s president, was now to decree a large credit-fuelled stimulus it would amount to tearing up a fundamental principle in the economic playbook. Statements from other officials also seem to indicate little appetite for a massive stimulus. Li Keqiang, premier, was quoted by the official media in March as saying: “variations in economic growth do not matter that much, as long as employment stabilises this year”.

Yet China should recognise that its fate is linked to that of the world. No matter how parlous its relationship with the US has become and regardless of how fiercely it resents being blamed for the initial viral outbreak, self-interest demands Beijing prepares for a key role in the world’s economic revival. Perhaps the pledges of “co-operation” made in a recent phone call between Mr Xi and Donald Trump, the US president, represent a positive sign.
...


If they can't, if even they go down under a second wave then the future will go from bleak to apocalyptic.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-fate-of-global-stocks-rests-on-china-a-coronavirus-resurgence-will-bring-fresh-lows-jpmorgan-says-51585575226

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby chanakyaa » 31 Mar 2020 08:08


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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Suresh S » 31 Mar 2020 09:25

Totally disagree that china is the only one with manufacturing muscle to pull the world out of recession.
all the old play books are going to be cast aside. Expect chinese propaganda continuously now. Nothing personal against anyone for a soft corner for them. China,s days as the fastest growing economy are over. I predict a change in the chinese govt sooner rather than later. Won,t be surprised if for life president xi ends up loosing his life in a coup. There will be severe repercussions for china . watch this world in the next 1-2 years. Nothing will remain the same. Once again I predict India as the biggest winner in every way you look at it and china as the biggest looser and well deserved.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby chola » 31 Mar 2020 11:21

Suresh S wrote:Totally disagree that china is the only one with manufacturing muscle to pull the world out of recession.
all the old play books are going to be cast aside. Expect chinese propaganda continuously now. Nothing personal against anyone for a soft corner for them. China,s days as the fastest growing economy are over. I predict a change in the chinese govt sooner rather than later. Won,t be surprised if for life president xi ends up loosing his life in a coup. There will be severe repercussions for china . watch this world in the next 1-2 years. Nothing will remain the same. Once again I predict India as the biggest winner in every way you look at it and china as the biggest looser and well deserved.


Read the articles. With the US and Europe down, there is only Cheen and that only if they aren't lying or going under a second wave.

The infections numbers in the US is hurtling towards 200K. Lockdown. Germany and France are chasing Spain and Italy in infections. Lockdown. UK has Prime Minister and Prince infected with who knows how many others. Lockdown imminent. India. Lockdown. So you tell the CEOs who else is going to jumpstart the global economy?

Propaganda only works if someone believes in their chit. No one listens to chini propaganda. Nobody has for a long time. If they weren't buying so much stuff, no one would look their way no matter what they say. But they do buy and make a lot of stuff. You can propagandize all you want but it is money that talks.

Hoping they don't crater in next few months along the other industrial centers in Europe and the US is not having a soft spot for them. As the articles state, it is all about the money.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Cain Marko » 31 Mar 2020 12:14

chola wrote:
Suresh S wrote:Totally disagree that china is the only one with manufacturing muscle to pull the world out of recession.
all the old play books are going to be cast aside. Expect chinese propaganda continuously now. Nothing personal against anyone for a soft corner for them. China,s days as the fastest growing economy are over. I predict a change in the chinese govt sooner rather than later. Won,t be surprised if for life president xi ends up loosing his life in a coup. There will be severe repercussions for china . watch this world in the next 1-2 years. Nothing will remain the same. Once again I predict India as the biggest winner in every way you look at it and china as the biggest looser and well deserved.


Read the articles. With the US and Europe down, there is only Cheen and that only if they aren't lying or going under a second wave.

The infections numbers in the US is hurtling towards 200K. Lockdown. Germany and France are chasing Spain and Italy in infections. Lockdown. UK has Prime Minister and Prince infected with who knows how many others. Lockdown imminent. India. Lockdown. So you tell the CEOs who else is going to jumpstart the global economy?

Propaganda only works if someone believes in their chit. No one listens to chini propaganda. Nobody has for a long time. If they weren't buying so much stuff, no one would look their way no matter what they say. But they do buy and make a lot of stuff. You can propagandize all you want but it is money that talks.

Hoping they don't crater in next few months along the other industrial centers in Europe and the US is not having a soft spot for them. As the articles state, it is all about the money.

This is true but doesn't capture the opportunity this crisis offers to the row, esp. US. If they can leverage anti Chinese sentiment, it will lead to new supply chains. The trade war to some extent already achieved this. The COVID crisis will only complete it. Cheen is in trouble. Trump will not ler up on this opportunity. Like any true capitalist, he will kick cheen when they are down. In some ways one wonders if there is some truth to Chinese claims about US soldiers doing their business in Wuhan. Who knows.

Trump will lean on industry as he has on GM to not only diversify supply chain but also product portfolios.. Lots of smaller companies esp in industries like pharma will be encouraged to wean away from cheen and grab US market share. India will definitely find a niche role here if it plays it's cards right and could be positioned to challenge cheen in other areas of the world. Cheen will be left to peddle to poorer markets but there too it will not go unchallenged.

Lockdown will cause some short term pain but once Americans are mobilized on war going as they were during WW2 or even 9/11, they are a force unto themselves.

If I'm reading this right, COVID just presented the West a chance to put China back in it's place. The russkis will now also squeeze the Chinis but use them just enough to make the West uncomfortable. Nobody likes a loser in the world of geopolitics and one with biggest stick wins.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby ldev » 31 Mar 2020 20:17

To put some numbers in perspective:

US fiscal package for coronavirus: 2 trillion.
Potential future fiscal package: number is unknown
Projected 2nd quarter reduction in GDP per Goldman Sachs: negative 34% i.e. a reduction of ~1.5 trillion.
Projected reductions for rest of 2020: unknown

This is just the US. I would wager that for the EU the losses are similar. As for the rest of the world, I have not even begun doing a back of the envelope calculation.

Now for the other side:

Apple's net income from 2007 when the Iphone was first introduced up until 2019 is $ 437 billion. The labour component of the Iphone 11 Pro Max is unknown but Foxconn pays its Chinese employees $3.15/hour which is below the US minimum wage of $7.25/hour.

The bottom line is that IMO the total profits made by all companies that use China as a base of operation to export to the rest of the world (I am not talking about production in China for the domestic Chinese market), will be more than washed out by the losses and expenses of probably >10 trillion dollars caused to the rest of the world by this single event of this Wuhan virus. Not to mention lives lost. And I am talking about all profits made since 2001 when China was given entry to the WTO and became the export juggernaut that it is. So in reality there has not been any net benefit to the rest of the world by turning China into a global factory. Also profits over the last 20 years have are private but the bailouts now are coming from public money. How is this any different compared to the 2008 financial crisis then? Privatized profits and tax payer funded losses.

It costs Apple $490 to make the Iphone 11 Pro Max in China and the phone is sold for US 1099 in the US and more in other countries. IMO it will not cost Apple much more than US 500 if that phone is produced in the US or in any other country. The lame excuse given by Tim Cook is that "tooling engineering" skills are now only available in China and hence the phone is produced there.

If this event does not serve as a wake up call to global corporations to stop using China as the factory for the rest of the world, I do not know what will. Globalization has been perversely turned into Chinazation. Manufacturing should be spread out over the world so that no single country can cause the mayhem that China has inflicted on the rest of the world.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby chola » 31 Mar 2020 20:42

Eventually, there'll be a lot of nations with axes to grind with Cheen.

But just be prepared to see more dependency on Cheen in the short term. It is unpalatable but it is a necessary evil.

Now, we can hope for karma and for Cheen to be clobbered by a second wave. Maybe good for our psyche for a day or two. But it would mean even more pain for everyone involved.

Think if it this way: the corporations that do the most outsourcing to India are F500 firms with operations in Cheen. They need Cheen to come online to provide some income while the EU and US are down. If Cheen does not come back then there is no major source of income. No income means layoffs. Unemployment in the US itself can reach 30% during this lockdown. If there is some income from somewhere then they can try to weather the lockdown and keep layoffs down.

There is plenty of time to deal with Cheen once the economy is back. The trend towards re-indigenization was kicked by the trade war. The virus only accelerated that philosophy and those policies. Cheen will be clobbered irregardless in the new world order. But right now, prepare to accept some nauseating developments with Cheen gaining a bump in prominence if we want the global economy to come back quickly.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby ldev » 31 Mar 2020 21:38

chola wrote:Eventually, there'll be a lot of nations with axes to grind with Cheen.

But just be prepared to see more dependency on Cheen in the short term. It is unpalatable but it is a necessary evil.

Now, we can hope for karma and for Cheen to be clobbered by a second wave. Maybe good for our psyche for a day or two. But it would mean even more pain for everyone involved.

Think if it this way: the corporations that do the most outsourcing to India are F500 firms with operations in Cheen. They need Cheen to come online to provide some income while the EU and US are down. If Cheen does not come back then there is no major source of income. No income means layoffs. Unemployment in the US itself can reach 30% during this lockdown. If there is some income from somewhere then they can try to weather the lockdown and keep layoffs down.

There is plenty of time to deal with Cheen once the economy is back. The trend towards re-indigenization was kicked by the trade war. The virus only accelerated that philosophy and those policies. Cheen will be clobbered irregardless in the new world order. But right now, prepare to accept some nauseating developments with Cheen gaining a bump in prominence if we want the global economy to come back quickly.


Any income that F500 companies are hoping for from Chinese production is going to be dwarfed multiple times by the existing US 2 trillion bailout and another US 2 trillion that Trump spoke about today morning for "infrastructure re-building". Essentially the economy will become quasi-nationalized for some unknown duration.

47 million unemployed with a 32% unemployment rate: Fed

The 2 trillion additional Trump is proposing should be invested in factories which will produce products currently imported from China specially critically important medical products and the 47 million projected by the Federal Reserve to lose their jobs should be given work in these factories. Infrastructure does not just mean roads and bridges and rail lines. It should include facilities for production. Something like a Marshall Plan for the rest of the world. There is no time like the present to change direction from this Chinese dependence. Remember the Japanese wiped out half of the US naval fleet at Pearl Harbor but the US became a manufacturing nation to fight that war. I just hope that US national character has not changed drastically since then.

All other countries should do the same.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Deans » 31 Mar 2020 22:31

I'd like to focus on the post Virus impact on the US.

I believe the Trump presidency is over. People can excuse unforeseen bad luck like the virus, but not incompetence in tackling it.
Biden's official position on China (which I have read) is probably more anti-China than Trump. Trump did recognise the problem but was more bluster than action and the actions he did take were inconsistent and he lacked allies. Biden recognises that the US has been screwed by China on Trade and that action has to be taken in concert with allies - the US will have willing allies ready to take on China. if TPP is signed, it will be a huge blow to China, which is excluded.

With Biden, I see a rapprochement with Iran (retaining the original nuclear deal) and Venezuela, allowing their oil to come back into the market.
The glut in oil will continue, keeping prices low. As long as the US has cheap gas, I don't believe there will be too much concern about the collapse of the US shale oil industry.
With cash sloshing around in American companies and banks, some of it can come to India in the form of greenfield manufacturing, or subscription to bonds (given that US interest rates are near 0).

There will also be support for efforts to bring home production of critical pharma / medical products, or source them from friendlier countries. India could be a big gainer.

Slightly greater pivot towards India as a counter to China and perhaps slightly more positive perception of India among the average Joe. Probably some toning down on Cashmere /Human rights etc as the US focuses on rebuilding its economy.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby chola » 31 Mar 2020 22:40

ldev wrote:
chola wrote:Eventually, there'll be a lot of nations with axes to grind with Cheen.

But just be prepared to see more dependency on Cheen in the short term. It is unpalatable but it is a necessary evil.

Now, we can hope for karma and for Cheen to be clobbered by a second wave. Maybe good for our psyche for a day or two. But it would mean even more pain for everyone involved.

Think if it this way: the corporations that do the most outsourcing to India are F500 firms with operations in Cheen. They need Cheen to come online to provide some income while the EU and US are down. If Cheen does not come back then there is no major source of income. No income means layoffs. Unemployment in the US itself can reach 30% during this lockdown. If there is some income from somewhere then they can try to weather the lockdown and keep layoffs down.

There is plenty of time to deal with Cheen once the economy is back. The trend towards re-indigenization was kicked by the trade war. The virus only accelerated that philosophy and those policies. Cheen will be clobbered irregardless in the new world order. But right now, prepare to accept some nauseating developments with Cheen gaining a bump in prominence if we want the global economy to come back quickly.


Any income that F500 companies are hoping for from Chinese production is going to be dwarfed multiple times by the existing US 2 trillion bailout and another US 2 trillion that Trump spoke about today morning for "infrastructure re-building". Essentially the economy will become quasi-nationalized for some unknown duration.

47 million unemployed with a 32% unemployment rate: Fed

The 2 trillion additional Trump is proposing should be invested in factories which will produce products currently imported from China specially critically important medical products and the 47 million projected by the Federal Reserve to lose their jobs should be given work in these factories. Infrastructure does not just mean roads and bridges and rail lines. It should include facilities for production. Something like a Marshall Plan for the rest of the world. There is no time like the present to change direction from this Chinese dependence. Remember the Japanese wiped out half of the US naval fleet at Pearl Harbor but the US became a manufacturing nation to fight that war. I just hope that US national character has not changed drastically since then.

All other countries should do the same.


That money will go into infrastructure that will come online years from now. Again, the trend is for re-indigenization of the supply chains even before the virus and the virus will accelerate it.

And all countries ARE doing the same (for good or ill.) But that capacity can't come online overnight.

Hell, the Trump personally had facilitated a flight from Cheen for PPE yesterday and has 21 others lined up.

Eventually, the chinis will get what's coming to them. Just don't expect karma to happen tomorrow morning.

The markets and corporate boardrooms WANT Cheen to succeed. Or at least want to pretend that Cheen has controlled the virus and is coming back online.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/european-rally-from-mid-march-lows-continues-after-china-data-slowing-growth-in-new-virus-cases-2020-03-31
European rally from mid-March lows continues after China data and slowing growth in new virus cases


Published: March 31, 2020 at 5:31 a.m. ET
By Steve Goldstein

...

Data coming out of China bounced back. The manufacturing purchasing managers index jumped to 52.0 for March, up from 35.7, and the services PMI rose to 52.3 from 29.6. Other measures of Chinese activity aren’t as robust. On Tuesday, for instance, Beijing traffic congestion was 34% lower than usual, according to mapping service TomTom.

“We continue to believe in a China led economic rebound and this process is in its early phases and should amplify helped by some pent-up consumer demand,” said Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Asset Management.


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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby chola » 31 Mar 2020 22:49

Two trillion in bailout mean shite if you cannot stop getting re-infected again and again until herd immunity. Why the market is hanging on Cheen's revival is because they are pinning hope on Cheen that the virus can be contained and that economic activity can be resumed. If Cheen can't then the market will assume that the US and EU can't either. Then we'll have that crater.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby rajsunder » 31 Mar 2020 23:46

chola wrote:Two trillion in bailout mean shite if you cannot stop getting re-infected again and again until herd immunity. Why the market is hanging on Cheen's revival is because they are pinning hope on Cheen that the virus can be contained and that economic activity can be resumed. If Cheen can't then the market will assume that the US and EU can't either. Then we'll have that crater.

BTW where did the great khan acquire $2 trillion for the bail out?
My guess is that there was a sale of US bonds and most probably China must have brought a lions share of them. If so, did China not do an under the table deal that there would be no repucussions on China for the virus?

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby chola » 01 Apr 2020 00:57

rajsunder wrote:
chola wrote:Two trillion in bailout mean shite if you cannot stop getting re-infected again and again until herd immunity. Why the market is hanging on Cheen's revival is because they are pinning hope on Cheen that the virus can be contained and that economic activity can be resumed. If Cheen can't then the market will assume that the US and EU can't either. Then we'll have that crater.

BTW where did the great khan acquire $2 trillion for the bail out?
My guess is that there was a sale of US bonds and most probably China must have brought a lions share of them. If so, did China not do an under the table deal that there would be no repucussions on China for the virus?


Unlikely to be Cheen. They have a declining dollar issue after being clobbered by Trump's trade war. They are actually behind Japan as owner of US bonds.

The money will come mainly from the printing press. How this'll turn out? No one knows. Maybe for some countries like the US (and Japan and Cheen) they can print as much as they want without consequences.

But then again, maybe not.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-us-government-and-american-families-have-been-swimming-in-debt-and-will-soon-be-drowning-2020-03-18

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby ldev » 01 Apr 2020 07:09

chola wrote:Two trillion in bailout mean shite if you cannot stop getting re-infected again and again until herd immunity. Why the market is hanging on Cheen's revival is because they are pinning hope on Cheen that the virus can be contained and that economic activity can be resumed. If Cheen can't then the market will assume that the US and EU can't either. Then we'll have that crater.


If you watched today's (March 31) White House briefing the following points are clear:

They do not believe Chinese data at all, I am talking about Dr. Faucci and Dr. Brix and thereby by extension Trump and the political establishment. The models they presented on spread and recovery are based on data from Italy, Spain and South Korea because the numbers are honest, not Chinese data. So pinning hopes of recovery on how China managed the crisis is not something they are banking on.

With full mitigation efforts (social distancing, closures etc), the death toll in the US is expected in the 100,000-240,000 range. that is more casualties than the US suffered in WW1. Without it the toll was projected at 1.5 million to 2.2 million.

With this kind of carnage I do not think the US is going to forgive China. There have been news reports about the Quad + South Korea and New Zealand meeting on a weekly basis for a joint strategy on the virus crisis including development of vaccines. China has been pointedly left out. What does that tell you about the trust deficit that other countries have vs China in this crisis? The markets have Pavlovian responses to the US Fed, not China.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby sanjaykumar » 01 Apr 2020 07:37

With this kind of carnage I do not think the US is going to forgive China.


Higher ups in both Britain and the US have spoken of a day of reckoning with China. I support, without reservation, this approach to the global menace. I fully support any US action to this end. Even if the Wuhan virus is defeated, the world will only be safe until the next time the Chinese have their barbaric dinner.

The wet markets are already open in China. I am not prepared to humour savage cultural practices by putting my life at risk so Chinese can continue their savagery.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby chola » 01 Apr 2020 08:48

^^^ It is not whether they (corporate boards) believe the numbers or not. Whether it is 3000 dead in Cheen or 300000 dead, it doesn't matter. What matters is if Cheen can loosen containment to restart the economy without a second wave. If Cheen can't the markets would crash because it means the US and EU won't loosen up either and the global economy stays down.
Last edited by chola on 01 Apr 2020 08:51, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Atmavik » 01 Apr 2020 08:50

Australia should 'take back the land' from China as damages( at least the straight white old males types do)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gtRr4pIineQ

when I first read this title I thought they plan to launch a naval expedition but it turns out they are talking about their own land that is owned by Chinese companies(CCP proxy). they are worried that if this snowballs into a food crisis huge amounts of dairy and protein will be shipped out to china just like the medical supplies were shipped out this time and there was a baby powder shortage a few years ago.

they should have thought of it when they were selling their land for profit. Aussies are in an interesting spot as geography does not favor them. they were almost invaded by the Japanese but were saved. lets watch how the next decade turns out for them.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby chola » 01 Apr 2020 08:53

^^^ That'll set up a nice dichotomy. The aborigines will ask for their land (the whole continent) back from the whites.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Atmavik » 01 Apr 2020 09:46

chola wrote:^^^ That'll set up a nice dichotomy. The aborigines will ask for their land (the whole continent) back from the whites.


well the Aboriginies can ask all they want but wont get much. the most they will get is an acknowledgment from liberals that their land was taken(Caneeda model). AUS & NZ was meant to be lebensraum for Anglo Saxons but China is making inroads. with US foreign policy in retreat and Britain all but finished it will be interesting times for the Aussies.

we do have a few Auss residents here. i hear that its turned into a la la land for P sec liberals i wonder how they will keep cheen at bay. what do the eggsperts think?

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby ricky_v » 01 Apr 2020 10:18

Atmavik wrote:well the Aboriginies can ask all they want but wont get much. the most they will get is an acknowledgment from liberals that their land was taken(Caneeda model). AUS & NZ was meant to be lebensraum for Anglo Saxons but China is making inroads. with US foreign policy in retreat and Britain all but finished it will be interesting times for the Aussies.

we do have a few Auss residents here. i hear that its turned into a la la land for P sec liberals i wonder how they will keep cheen at bay. what do the eggsperts think?

Not much related to wu-flu, but the situation is fluid. Not an expert either and moved to oz about 2 months back so viewpoint may be immaturely formed. Oz is in a word struggling, and this was before the covid, their main investment comes from the chinese to such an extent that when larger bids are rejected in view of national security, the fifth column goes on an overdrive. Their automobile and ancillary sector is shot, gm announced winding up of holden around june and they have no other automobile manufacturer, their airline companies are at the governments door for handouts, retail which was tense to begin with may falter altogether ; tldr oz is very likely to go belly-up post this situation. They cannot exploit their natural resources, because global warming or greenhouse something. Now the word is that chinese may pick up massive shares in struggling companies which the national board has promised to review. There is no lockdown at this point, some strict socializing penalties, pretty blaise, the natives where i live are more intent on drinking in parks and roaming around screaming to care who owns what.

Added later: the unis are heavily dependent on foreign money particularly chinese, during the start of the travel moratorium, unis actively paid chinese students to enter from other countries, messed up situation all around.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby manju » 01 Apr 2020 12:14

ramana wrote:COVID-19 IS A new bio war front. The soldiers are the medical care profession: doctors, nurses, hospitals, workers, Pharma, drug distribution, research labs, education institutes, revamping biology curriculum even in high schools, public health administration.
We need the doctors here to think for post COVID-19 era. We should expect out breaks every year with new viruses. Ramana


I think this Wuhan Virus pandemic will last for 12-18 months as we are slowing it down with our interventions.

Use this opportunity to bring reinforce sop, QI etc in health care.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Kati » 01 Apr 2020 12:32

Hope the building up anger turns into a tsunami against the cheen land:

Rick Scott calls for congressional probe into WHO over coronavirus response

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/490 ... s-response

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby g.sarkar » 01 Apr 2020 13:11

ricky_v wrote:
Atmavik wrote:well the Aboriginies can ask all they want but wont get much. the most they will get is an acknowledgment from liberals that their land was taken(Caneeda model). AUS & NZ was meant to be lebensraum for Anglo Saxons but China is making inroads. with US foreign policy in retreat and Britain all but finished it will be interesting times for the Aussies.
we do have a few Auss residents here. i hear that its turned into a la la land for P sec liberals i wonder how they will keep cheen at bay. what do the eggsperts think?

Not much related to wu-flu, but the situation is fluid. Not an expert either and moved to oz about 2 months back so viewpoint may be immaturely formed. Oz is in a word struggling, and this was before the covid, their main investment comes from the chinese to such an extent that when larger bids are rejected in view of national security, the fifth column goes on an overdrive. Their automobile and ancillary sector is shot, gm announced winding up of holden around june and they have no other automobile manufacturer, their airline companies are at the governments door for handouts, retail which was tense to begin with may falter altogether ; tldr oz is very likely to go belly-up post this situation. They cannot exploit their natural resources, because global warming or greenhouse something. Now the word is that chinese may pick up massive shares in struggling companies which the national board has promised to review. There is no lockdown at this point, some strict socializing penalties, pretty blaise, the natives where i live are more intent on drinking in parks and roaming around screaming to care who owns what.
Added later: the unis are heavily dependent on foreign money particularly chinese, during the start of the travel moratorium, unis actively paid chinese students to enter from other countries, messed up situation all around.

Australia and New Zealand belong to China now. Great Britain had colonized these two countries under the protection of the British Indian army. They however did not allow Indians to live there, so as to keep it white and pure. Today, I do not see Indian soldiers prepared to die for Australia/NZ against the Chinese. China needs these lands as Lebensraum. UK is gone and as the US declines, China will move in.

Gautam

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby ricky_v » 01 Apr 2020 13:38

g.sarkar wrote:Australia and New Zealand belong to China now. Great Britain had colonized these two countries under the protection of the British Indian army. They however did not allow Indians to live there, so as to keep it white and pure. Today, I do not see Indian soldiers prepared to die for Australia/NZ against the Chinese. China needs these lands as Lebensraum. UK is gone and as the US declines, China will move in.

Gautam

I think we can add canuckstan to that list as well. As for the us, i always thought that it is morphing to las estados unidos rather than declining. Though i would ask, the original lebensraum was conceived because the germans wanted area to settle people/ take area where settled were already deinem volk, china still has lands to the west and south west that are relatively unsettled given the terrain, it can tame them before emigrating yet perhaps it easier to take over rather than to create from scratch.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Avtar Singh » 01 Apr 2020 16:37

Seriously… you guys are smoking chinese weed... China owns nada/zip

These are the Anglos we are talking about… Perfidious Albion et al..
Paper contracts mean nothing… boots on the ground mean ownership and title.
Sh#tty of London/Wall Street etc are not going to fold for chincoms when they
have owned so much of the world for so long…
Seen of axis powers and russian commies.

There was a story on zerohedge???/somewhere 2008 crisis times how wall street thinking was that if you have sh#t to unload (financial sh#t) sell it to the germans they will buy anything!!
Low and behold take a look at DBA (deutsche bank) balance sheet.
Take a look at how they managed to offload Monsanto to Bayer just before the lawsuits hit.

I have been following this stuff for a long time 1980s to be exact…
Into the 1990s Japanese were going to own america, I dont think so.

As for China… It will struggle to get its boots beyond the yellow sea.. Ever!!

I have said it here before and no doubt it was pooh/poohed…
The biggest paper contract that is going to get dissolved and vanish into thin air is the USD
as we know it and all current USD debt… Foreign owned, let me be more specific Chinese owned.

If Trump comes back, his lifetime business model is sticking it to creditors..
No doubt the chinese will get it good..

India/Indians should..... eradicate illiteracy among its people…
Build out economy/infrastructure/healthcare/military… sorry but 20 Tejas a year is pathetic
Avoid money printing madness… Do what Indians do best = hard work.

Grab the popcorn and enjoy the show… Perfidious Anglos will not be folding..

Just as the Lady was not for turning.. EU has been seen off + islamists imposed on them suckers
They may flail for a while but that is a symptom of being a democracy so is resilience compared with dictatorships.

If china grabs anything Indian through perfidery, tear it up and tell them to take a running jump

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby ricky_v » 01 Apr 2020 17:07

Avtar Singh wrote:Seriously… you guys are smoking chinese weed... China owns nada/zip

These are the Anglos we are talking about… Perfidious Albion et al..
Paper contracts mean nothing… boots on the ground mean ownership and title.
Sh#tty of London/Wall Street etc are not going to fold for chincoms when they
have owned so much of the world for so long…
Seen of axis powers and russian commies.

There was a story on zerohedge???/somewhere 2008 crisis times how wall street thinking was that if you have sh#t to unload (financial sh#t) sell it to the germans they will buy anything!!
Low and behold take a look at DBA (deutsche bank) balance sheet.
Take a look at how they managed to offload Monsanto to Bayer just before the lawsuits hit.

I have been following this stuff for a long time 1980s to be exact…
Into the 1990s Japanese were going to own america, I dont think so.

As for China… It will struggle to get its boots beyond the yellow sea.. Ever!!

I have said it here before and no doubt it was pooh/poohed…
The biggest paper contract that is going to get dissolved and vanish into thin air is the USD
as we know it and all current USD debt… Foreign owned, let me be more specific Chinese owned.

If Trump comes back, his lifetime business model is sticking it to creditors..
No doubt the chinese will get it good..

India/Indians should..... eradicate illiteracy among its people…
Build out economy/infrastructure/healthcare/military… sorry but 20 Tejas a year is pathetic
Avoid money printing madness… Do what Indians do best = hard work.

Grab the popcorn and enjoy the show… Perfidious Anglos will not be folding..

Just as the Lady was not for turning.. EU has been seen off + islamists imposed on them suckers
They may flail for a while but that is a symptom of being a democracy so is resilience compared with dictatorships.

If china grabs anything Indian through perfidery, tear it up and tell them to take a running jump

To start with, i do not consume herbs of chinese make and unproven countnance sir :D.
As long as the world acts civilized, these pieces of paper are the law, when the fecal matter starts exploding, nations can just tell foreign investors and the nations backing them to get fuked, which is where things with china are headed, i was stating things from a normalized operation.
Problem is you and I can boldly go forth to tear such papers, but then the seditious rats that we harbor, the ones who orgasm endlessly on all things inimical to india would start their cumbersome cycle again: petitions to white knights in black cloaks, opeds in foreign has-beens, half-assed truths or downright lies, sm rants and backing from literal whos, more petitions; it does not take a soothsayer to predict things that we experience every other day.
Oh, and the proclivities of the german towards scat is well documented, even in the earliest writings from rome, there was a story where during some sacking or other, a german committed suicide by ingesting the tool that was designed for the cleaning of the roman bottoms, which the writer found remarkable enough to mention.


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