Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

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chola
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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby chola » 01 Apr 2020 19:06

The Anglo-Saxons have not been Number ONE in the past half millenia for no reason. They are a powerful, quick thinking, quick reacting, ruthless race.

When the US and UK are openly considering Herd Immunity early in the game, we should not see it as some kind grasping at straws and not a deliberate strategy to test the waters.

The East Asian countries who think they have control with quarantines will need to continue quarantining if they do not want to become re-infected.

They are already re-imposing crushing bans on their flights to stop re-introduction.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/world/asia/coronavirus-china-hong-kong-singapore-south-korea.html

They'll have to continue doing that, destroying their ability to trade, for the forseeable future. Over time, they'll go back into being the hermit nations they were before the modern age. Most of the world will not have the same discipline and resources at hand to quarantine like they have.

The Anglos-Saxons with Herd Immunity will be able to move and trade with the world. Unlike the rival chini-types huddling in their cloisters, social-distanced from themselves and the rest of the world.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby chanakyaa » 01 Apr 2020 19:52


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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby chanakyaa » 01 Apr 2020 20:10

chola wrote:The Anglo-Saxons have not been Number ONE in the past half millenia for no reason. They are a powerful, quick thinking, quick reacting, ruthless race.

When the US and UK are openly considering Herd Immunity early in the game, we should not see it as some kind grasping at straws and not a deliberate strategy to test the waters.

The East Asian countries who think they have control with quarantines will need to continue quarantining if they do not want to become re-infected.

They are already re-imposing crushing bans on their flights to stop re-introduction.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/world/asia/coronavirus-china-hong-kong-singapore-south-korea.html

They'll have to continue doing that, destroying their ability to trade, for the forseeable future. Over time, they'll go back into being the hermit nations they were before the modern age. Most of the world will not have the same discipline and resources at hand to quarantine like they have.

The Anglos-Saxons with Herd Immunity will be able to move and trade with the world. Unlike the rival chini-types huddling in their cloisters, social-distanced from themselves and the rest of the world.

+72. That herd immunity garbage definitely had a bad smell from the beginning. In fact anything Br!t$hit is bad. At the end, we all may be forced to take a vaccine, but that is a diff conversation. With respect to what's next, in terms of how would nations struggle with getting back to normal is going to be challenge that will require India to pull all the talent from healthcare and all walks of life to come up with a game plan with a potential to reinstate tactical and regional isolation to prevent periodic/reoccurrence this byo-attac.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-a-team-of-citi-analysts-say-will-save-the-global-economy-and-the-stock-market-2020-04-01?mod=home-page

What will 6 months of Covid-19 do to our society? Only certain thing is we'll be in a state... and the STATE will be IN CONTROL

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Atmavik » 01 Apr 2020 20:12

Avtar Singh wrote:Seriously… you guys are smoking chinese weed... China owns nada/zip

These are the Anglos we are talking about… Perfidious Albion et al..


I have been following this stuff for a long time 1980s to be exact…
Into the 1990s Japanese were going to own america, I dont think so.



my last on this as the topic is getting localized.

here are the reasons i am watching ANZ.

1. geographic proximity to china.
2. small population with a democratic setup
3. resource-rich.
4. huge amount of trade with China.

i know these are the perfidious Anglos but its a different world today. and the Chinese have learnt a thing or two from them. they are not taking on the US directly but working towards a G2 system. they have built enough dependency in Europe and can play divide and conquer. we dont know what will remain of EU after this carnage ends. an interesting fact i recently learnt is that german defence spending is now below the mandated amount at the treaty of Versaille

the Chinese seem to have enough influence in all the right circles like McKinsey, Goldman, Wapo and Ny times. imagine if this virus came out of any other place. the criticism of china is almost zero for the carnage it is causing.

in speaking with US oldies i hear the Japanese example u quoted a lot. i don't think its a right comparison and it will be interesting to watch how things shape up.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby DavidD » 02 Apr 2020 01:34

chola wrote:The Anglo-Saxons have not been Number ONE in the past half millenia for no reason. They are a powerful, quick thinking, quick reacting, ruthless race.

When the US and UK are openly considering Herd Immunity early in the game, we should not see it as some kind grasping at straws and not a deliberate strategy to test the waters.

The East Asian countries who think they have control with quarantines will need to continue quarantining if they do not want to become re-infected.

They are already re-imposing crushing bans on their flights to stop re-introduction.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/world/asia/coronavirus-china-hong-kong-singapore-south-korea.html

They'll have to continue doing that, destroying their ability to trade, for the forseeable future. Over time, they'll go back into being the hermit nations they were before the modern age. Most of the world will not have the same discipline and resources at hand to quarantine like they have.

The Anglos-Saxons with Herd Immunity will be able to move and trade with the world. Unlike the rival chini-types huddling in their cloisters, social-distanced from themselves and the rest of the world.


That's not gonna happen.

1) Herd immunity will mean carnage. Millions dead in the US alone, and that's not something any politician can survive. More importantly, however...

2) Herd immunity takes time. It'll likely take multiple cycles to achieve herd immunity, so probably a couple of years. By then a vaccine should be available, and millions would've died for nothing. There's a reason why nobody is espousing herd immunity any longer. They were stupid enough to "test the waters" on herd immunity because they're ignorant of science.

3) I wonder if the Anglo-Saxons thought to themselves "there's a reason India and China have been number one for millenia" when they started colonizing the world. The only constant in this world is that nothing is constant.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Cain Marko » 02 Apr 2020 12:07

chola wrote:
ldev wrote:
Essentially the economy will become quasi-nationalized for some unknown duration. .



Eventually, the chinis will get what's coming to them. Just don't expect karma to happen tomorrow morning.

[/quote]
Agree on both counts. How long do you guys think it'll be before fangs turn in Chinese direction? My guess is that if oirpean liberals and bankers start swaying towards China and the latter gets uppity, expect the Anglos to resort to their default economic policy.... War. And when that spectre shows up, I expect every 2 bit oiropean country to toe the US line. China will be alone. The russkis will play a nice game until the allies wean them off with nice sops.
But they'll certainly sink Japan and Soko though. That's the endgame the way I see it. 2 years, more or less is my guesstimate. Nothing like a world war to get the economy running again.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby chola » 02 Apr 2020 12:41

Cain Marko wrote:Agree on both counts. How long do you guys think it'll be before fangs turn in Chinese direction? My guess is that if oirpean liberals and bankers start swaying towards China and the latter gets uppity, expect the Anglos to resort to their default economic policy.... War. And when that spectre shows up, I expect every 2 bit oiropean country to toe the US line. China will be alone. The russkis will play a nice game until the allies wean them off with nice sops.
But they'll certainly sink Japan and Soko though. That's the endgame the way I see it. 2 years, more or less is my guesstimate. Nothing like a world war to get the economy running again.


The Anglo-Saxon's modus operandi. lol

Not sure whether it is two years or more but it is a distinct possibilty.

And the US has policies in place that would conveniently trigger a conflict. Maybe have Taiwan declare independence.
https://www.ft.com/content/161e1b6b-8b5c-44a8-a873-76687427b522

US steps up support of Taiwan in open rebuke to China

New act signed into law by Trump puts Washington on collision course with Beijing

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Cyrano » 02 Apr 2020 13:29

Meanwhile in the US, exasperated doctors are raising up against the Healthcare "Business"


https://youtu.be/Mvlqh0JN55M

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Atmavik » 03 Apr 2020 02:23

Time to wake up and smell the coffee

Investors burned too many times, avoid Chinese companies like the plague: Kynikos founder

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpsD6cmVDS0

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby yensoy » 03 Apr 2020 10:25

I would like to see 3 things happen as a result of this pandemic:

1. Better personal hygiene among common Indians, and this should be taught at schools in primary grades

2. Decongestion of cities. As a country, we don't really lack land. China has the same population as us but lives on one third of their land, which is roughly the size of India (the rest is mostly uninhabitable, and doesn't contribute to agriculture either). There is enough land to expand cities and make them more livable - problem is that outlying areas don't have the infra such as roads, schools/hospitals, water and most importantly security. These should be arranged on war footing and cities expanded out before unplanned growth further chokes those areas.

3. Permanent increase in medical facilities. While building jugaad quarantine and isolation centers, we should use identify land/plots which can then be the site for regular hospitals. These can and should come up in time, and with central funding so that we have some minimal level of care - such as one bed per thousand population - not averaged at the country or state level, but at the district level. States can be responsible for future operational costs but the capital costs should be borne by the Centre.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Rsatchi » 03 Apr 2020 15:49

[
quote="Cain Marko"]
chola wrote:

The problem then would be Threatened China with inherently unstable Pak and NoKo with them.
Collective net wrth of 'B....' which could cause mass destruction??
If not Cheen but the threat could from the other two obeying His Masters Voice!! with a highly 'Unstable Kim ding dong' and 'Dimran' the Dumb: there would be three very vulnerable states : SoKo and Japan to due extreme proximity to Ding dong and Indic Land to the napak!!!
The aftermath of that would be like the K-T event and where would be the 'The Chicxulub crater '???

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby vimal » 04 Apr 2020 02:19

A morbid thought entered my mind, mods please delete this if this is bad.

With so much of Italy/Spain and EU's elderly population decimated, it actually reduces the burden on their social security systems. Governments might even incentivize child bearing (unlikely) and EU might bounce back even stronger in another generation. EU (a few nations atleast) will have much better population ratio after this epidemic. :(

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby chanakyaa » 04 Apr 2020 03:28

Unusual solution to unusual problem. If done in India, wouldn't be bad to keep TJs at home on Fridays.

Men can leave their homes on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays, while women on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays. On Sundays
Across the world, officials have been desperately adopting sweeping measures in a bid to keep people separated and the coronavirus at bay. But even among the wide range tried so far, one attempted solution in Peru and Panama has proven unusual: Officials in both countries have begun to limit their residents' movement by gender — with men only allowed to leave the home on some days and women on others...

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Deans » 04 Apr 2020 10:26

vimal wrote:A morbid thought entered my mind, mods please delete this if this is bad.

With so much of Italy/Spain and EU's elderly population decimated, it actually reduces the burden on their social security systems. Governments might even incentivize child bearing (unlikely) and EU might bounce back even stronger in another generation. EU (a few nations atleast) will have much better population ratio after this epidemic. :(


For India, it can lead to a large increase in demand for health care professionals in a Post Brexit UK. The NHS will no longer be able to hire East Europeans (who will, in any case, be needed in their home countries) and the pandemic has shown that the UK's health care numbers need to be significantly increased. India is a logical place to hire nurses (more than doctors) from, with their English language skills and low cost.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby vimal » 04 Apr 2020 10:37

Deans wrote:
vimal wrote:A morbid thought entered my mind, mods please delete this if this is bad.

With so much of Italy/Spain and EU's elderly population decimated, it actually reduces the burden on their social security systems. Governments might even incentivize child bearing (unlikely) and EU might bounce back even stronger in another generation. EU (a few nations atleast) will have much better population ratio after this epidemic. :(


For India, it can lead to a large increase in demand for health care professionals in a Post Brexit UK. The NHS will no longer be able to hire East Europeans (who will, in any case, be needed in their home countries) and the pandemic has shown that the UK's health care numbers need to be significantly increased. India is a logical place to hire nurses (more than doctors) from, with their English language skills and low cost.


Don't worry our western neighbor with djinn powers and 100% kudrati medical system will fill the void.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Deans » 04 Apr 2020 10:47

vimal wrote:
Deans wrote:
For India, it can lead to a large increase in demand for health care professionals in a Post Brexit UK. The NHS will no longer be able to hire East Europeans (who will, in any case, be needed in their home countries) and the pandemic has shown that the UK's health care numbers need to be significantly increased. India is a logical place to hire nurses (more than doctors) from, with their English language skills and low cost.


Don't worry our western neighbor with djinn powers and 100% kudrati medical system will fill the void.


Our western neighbor prohibits wimmens from working. They export donkeys instead.
The men who pass off as doctors have had their Pak degrees de-recognized even in the Gulf.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Cain Marko » 04 Apr 2020 11:47

chanakyaa wrote:Unusual solution to unusual problem. If done in India, wouldn't be bad to keep TJs at home on Fridays.

Men can leave their homes on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays, while women on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays. On Sundays
Across the world, officials have been desperately adopting sweeping measures in a bid to keep people separated and the coronavirus at bay. But even among the wide range tried so far, one attempted solution in Peru and Panama has proven unusual: Officials in both countries have begun to limit their residents' movement by gender — with men only allowed to leave the home on some days and women on others...

I would've thought that they'd let the women out more than men considering that men seem more susceptible

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Cyrano » 04 Apr 2020 14:32

vimal wrote:A morbid thought entered my mind, mods please delete this if this is bad.

With so much of Italy/Spain and EU's elderly population decimated, it actually reduces the burden on their social security systems. Governments might even incentivize child bearing (unlikely) and EU might bounce back even stronger in another generation. EU (a few nations atleast) will have much better population ratio after this epidemic. :(


Some people have already mentioned this to me, some only half jokingly :(

I did a quick back of the envelope calculation for France:
Population: 65 Million
Aged population (65+) : 19.82% = 13 Million aged persons <A>

Annual Costs for (There are so many aid programs in France at different levels of administration that this is by no means exhaustive; but a rough ball park) :
Retirement pensions: 271 B€
Home care cost paid by govt: 10 B€
Special care homes cost paid by govt: 30 B€
Financial aid for elderly people by govt: 2 €
Total Cost of an aged persons to Govt: 313 B€ <B>

So <A>/<B> per head cost : 24 K€ / year
Cost/1000 people: 24 M€/year

BONUS: France has a very high inheritance tax, which brought in 14.4 B€ last year from 610K deaths (of all ages, so not all will attract inheritance tax). Taken simply, thats 23.6 K€ into the state's pocket from each death, knowing that older 65+ people deaths will bring in most of this tax revenue.

So the state saves 24K€ for the coming year and stands to gain an almost equal amount from taxing the dead.
So rounding off, 50K benefit for le Gouvernament from each Coven19 death.

So we can approximate the French Govt gained 250 M€ from the 5K deaths so far.

The Costs:
We don't yet have any stats on the cost of treating each COVID patient, lets see where we get from the data we have for France:
64K+ cases detected, 27.5K hospitalised, 6600+ in intensive care now, we ca assume the 5K deaths so far have been in ICUs as well. So total 11,600 ICU patients staying for lets say 2 weeks on avg. Thats 162K+ ICU days. At an average cost of 3200€/ICU day, we are looking at 520 M€ so far only accounting for ICU care and ignoring everything else. And this pandemic is far from over.

Lost VAT, Corp tax due to falling profits next year, loss of fuel tax revenue, loss of income tax revenue, loss of other PSU & state revenue, lost tourism revenue, cost of servicing debt for current account borrowings to fight the virus, cost of the stimulus package of 330 B€, cost of getting the economy back to where it was which no one can estimate ...

Conclusion: Morbid math might tell us what we might save thanks to the dead, but not what it will cost us. The financial cost seems so high already, and the total financial cost to get rid of the virus and get back to normal is pretty much an unknown at this point of time since we are still on the raising slope of the bell curve. I don't expect any sane govt to make decisions now based on morbid math.

A grandpa or grandma is priceless, we are here today because of them.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby g.sarkar » 04 Apr 2020 15:11

https://www.spiegel.de/international/eu ... 77225790d6
Eurobonds or Bust?
Europe Struggles to Find a Joint Approach to the Corona Catastrophe
Faced with a growing economic crisis, many European Union member states are clamoring for the introduction of so-called corona bonds. Just like it was in the euro crisis, though, Germany is opposed. In the end, Berlin may not have a choice. By DER SPIEGEL Staff

03.04.2020
There are three recent comments that stand out for what they reveal about the state of the European Union these days. The first comes from Felipe González, a former Spanish prime minister and once a friend of former German chancellors Willy Brandt and Helmut Kohl. "If there is anybody in Europe who believes they are superior to others, they will pay dearly. Such a thing happened to us twice in the 20th century, with horrific consequences."
The second quote comes from Lars Castellucci, a member of German parliament with the Social Democrats (SPD). "Europe is in danger of becoming the most prominent corona fatality," he said. "The mood in Italy is dramatic. Russians and Chinese are being hailed as saviors. But they feel abandoned by Europe."
Finally, there's Bruno Le Maire, France's finance minister. "There is just one question: Are we together or are we not? Are we presenting a sad image to the world of a Continent divided into North and South?" Like the other two, Le Maire's musings were a not-so-hidden reference to Germany.
The Germans and Europe, that long history that has alternated between devastating wars and periods of solidarity, is beginning a new chapter. As the corona crisis tightens its grip on the Continent, hopes are being placed on the shoulders of the large, strong country in the middle. Will it be able to muster sufficient solidarity to help out the weaker EU members, particularly Italy and Spain, which have been hit so hard by the virus?
Many doubt that it can. Italy was shocked when the German government initially placed a ban on the export of personal protective equipment. China jumped into the breach. The Germans have, of course, regained a bit of standing by accepting patients from Italy and France. Mostly, though, Europe is looking to Germany for financial solidarity.
It was the same thing we saw in the euro crisis, which erupted in 2010. Back then, the German government refused to allow for eurobonds, which could have been a great help to Greece, for example. Southern European countries were furious and Nazi comparisons were aired -- not unlike the more recent strong words from González.
......
Gautam

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby ramana » 05 Apr 2020 03:13

Have people read Kissinger article in NYT?

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby vijayk » 05 Apr 2020 03:42

ramana wrote:Have people read Kissinger article in NYT?


??

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby chanakyaa » 05 Apr 2020 06:22

I see an article in WSJ (behind paywall)

The Coronavirus Pandemic Will Forever Alter the World Order

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Atmavik » 05 Apr 2020 07:07

WHO official pretends off an internet connection snag when asked about Tiwans membership

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMxtBTFVCv8

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby vera_k » 05 Apr 2020 07:38

Late Lateef article. Concern about whether democratic institutions and liberal democracy can survive. Says this harks back to end of WW2. No criticism of PRC, however comment thread is reading the subtext.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby SwamyG » 05 Apr 2020 09:52

The following will improve:
1. Health infrastructure.
2. Indian Unity
3. Modi's political capital.
4. Doval gets certain things accomplished in the realm of deradicalizing Indian Muslims.
5. Yogi's stature
6. Yoga and Ayurveda
7. Creativity and entrepreneurship in India.

All the above will move India up in the global power order.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby sampat » 05 Apr 2020 10:06

chanakyaa wrote:I see an article in WSJ (behind paywall)

The Coronavirus Pandemic Will Forever Alter the World Order



Archived Version

https://archive.is/cyItf

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby chola » 05 Apr 2020 13:21

^^^ Kissinger is still worried about a global response. But the truth is the world is fracturing rapidly as we speak as countries are embargoing one another. Even among the western alliance. When you see Germany and France accusing the US of "hijacking" facemasks then it is pretty much each nation for itself.

I said this before, the retreat from globalization had already started with the trade war. It will accelerate with the virus.

The countries and regions with the large internal economies will do better. The small trading nations will get clobbered. Those who are poor now, especially in Africa and our neighborhood, will have a tougher time advancing with globalization gone. China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan and ASEAN all advanced because they were part of the global supply chain. The virus poisoned that well for all the others in the South.

The countries with the big internal economies will do better than others. The wealthy nations will keep their comparative advantages longer without globalization spreading first world corporations elsewhere.

India never depended on trade much anyways but we do need to be ready for the coming drop in remissions from overseas. The US will have up to 30% unemployment. The political backlash against any kind of outsourcing would be extreme.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Avtar Singh » 05 Apr 2020 15:13

What I say might sound realm of SciFi...

Twin Towers 2.5k died, what were the consequences. What are the projections/possibilities for american deaths???

Trumps economy and stock market may get trashed...
Can anyone imagine what kind of rage the american people are going to be whipped into with
100k/200k deaths
Who/what will be the target of the rage? CCP can try whatever lobbying they like...
It will not work, even CCP shills(american/british) will know who to drop and who to get behind.....
whilst happily pocketing the CCP cash.

Anglos are very flexible and open minded, one could say that some of us are exactly them!!!

If Trump gets a second term he will be mad as hell. Pompeo and Navarro will be there.
ANYWAY, I could be wishful thinking hoping that CCP will get it in the neck.

But I am firm in my belief that if India comes off relatively unscathed....IT COULD COME OUT WELL,
hoping and praying.

Please stop running around after these idiots trying to test them/give them treatment...
Lock them down/quarantine them LET THEM DIE......
Any sensible ones will be crawling out half dead begging for treatment..
Americans would shout "cease and desist" before shooting them dead within seconds of the warning

That is exactly what that Anglo Darwin wrote about what... these people deserve what they get.

I appreciate all very tough for Indian mentality, but Indians are also open minded and flexible.
Hopefully they will learn.

Start opening the parts of the economy/country inhabited by sensible people.....
as Indian managed the initial reactions so well it needs to think ahead and show how a return
to normality can be managed...
Embarrass the western sh#ts... bbc/ch4/nyt/wapo/grauniad with the GDP numbers they love so much.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby uskumar » 05 Apr 2020 15:54

chola wrote: The US will have up to 30% unemployment. The political backlash against any kind of outsourcing would be extreme.

I am waiting for the day this happens. It will be our opportunity to nationalize internet infrastructure in India and ensure that OS, app stores and data are indian owned and Indian run.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby manju » 05 Apr 2020 17:42

vimal wrote:A morbid thought entered my mind, mods please delete this if this is bad.

With so much of Italy/Spain and EU's elderly population decimated, it actually reduces the burden on their social security systems. Governments might even incentivize child bearing (unlikely) and EU might bounce back even stronger in another generation. EU (a few nations atleast) will have much better population ratio after this epidemic. :(


The pandemic affects the sick (immunocompromised and old) and almost does not even touch those <30 y (and healthy). What will be left- will be healthy?

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Parasu » 05 Apr 2020 18:27

chola wrote:India never depended on trade much anyways but we do need to be ready for the coming drop in remissions from overseas.


Isn't India's trade to GDP ratio around 40%?!

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby nandakumar » 05 Apr 2020 19:45

Parasu wrote:
chola wrote:India never depended on trade much anyways but we do need to be ready for the coming drop in remissions from overseas.


Isn't India's trade to GDP ratio around 40%?!

The more relevant comparison would be export to GDP. That would be about 8%.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby chanakyaa » 06 Apr 2020 08:27

Fauci suggests COVID-19 outbreaks could assume a seasonal nature
WASHINGTON — Dr. Anthony Fauci says there a very good chance the new coronavirus “will assume a seasonal nature” because it is unlikely to be under control globally.

The director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases said Sunday that the virus is unlikely to be completely eradicated from the planet this year. That means the U.S. could see the “beginning of a resurgence” during the next flu season.

Fauci said the prospect of a resurgence is the reason the U.S. is working so hard to get its preparedness “better than it was.” He said that includes working to develop a vaccine and conducting clinical trials on therapeutic interventions.

Fauci also said U.S. states that don’t have stay-at-home orders are not putting the rest of the country at risk as much as they are putting themselves at risk.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby g.sarkar » 06 Apr 2020 09:32

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... oing-cost/
What the $2 trillion coronavirus bailout is really going to cost
Americans will pay the price of the economic rescue package: Not in higher taxes to service the debt or higher inflation, but in a slide toward a boom-and-bust economy.

By Steven Pearlstein, Columnist, April 5, 2020
Economists tell us that there is no such thing as a free lunch — that you must always give up something of value to get something you value more.
But Americans may be getting something close to a free lunch in the $2 trillion economic rescue package, thanks to an accommodating Federal Reserve and a financial slight-of-hand known as “monetizing the debt.”
Here’s how.
To get the money promised to businesses, households, hospitals and local governments, the Treasury will have to borrow it over the coming months by selling IOUs of various durations to investors in the Treasury bond market. But at the same time that the Treasury is selling trillions of dollars of these short-term notes and longer-term bonds, the Fed will be buying up a roughly equal amount from the Treasury market (though not necessarily the exact same IOUs), making good on its recent promise to provide whatever “liquidity” the economy needs to get through the pandemic.
And where will the Fed get these trillions of dollars? That’s easy. All it has to do is print as much money as it needs by increasing the balance that banks have “on reserve” at the Fed. That power to print money is engraved at the top of every bill in your wallet, in the words “Federal Reserve Note.” In other words, one arm of the government will create $2 trillion out of thin air and then lend it to another government agency, which will turn around and give or lend it to households, businesses, hospitals and local governments. The Fed rejects the idea that it is engaged in anything so sketchy as monetizing the national debt. It sees itself as merely fulfilling its mandate to promote full employment and price stability. And in good times and bad, the way the Fed accomplishes this mission is by buying and selling Treasury notes in the open market.
When you hear that the Fed has lowered interest rates by 0.25 percent, that’s how it does it. The only difference now is that it’s not just the usual short-term notes the Fed is buying, but the full range of Treasury instruments, and doing it in greater quantity than at any time in its history. It prefers to call this more aggressive bond buying “quantitative easing.”
......
Gautam

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Lisa » 06 Apr 2020 15:23

chola wrote:The Anglo-Saxons have not been Number ONE in the past half millenia for no reason. They are a powerful, quick thinking, quick reacting, ruthless race.

When the US and UK are openly considering Herd Immunity early in the game, we should not see it as some kind grasping at straws and not a deliberate strategy to test the waters.

The East Asian countries who think they have control with quarantines will need to continue quarantining if they do not want to become re-infected.

They are already re-imposing crushing bans on their flights to stop re-introduction.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/world/asia/coronavirus-china-hong-kong-singapore-south-korea.html

They'll have to continue doing that, destroying their ability to trade, for the forseeable future. Over time, they'll go back into being the hermit nations they were before the modern age. Most of the world will not have the same discipline and resources at hand to quarantine like they have.

The Anglos-Saxons with Herd Immunity will be able to move and trade with the world. Unlike the rival chini-types huddling in their cloisters, social-distanced from themselves and the rest of the world.


Could not agree with you more. The first axiom of conflict is to define success and how to bring the forces back home. With the deepest of respects, I do not see such a plan in India. How does India go back to 'normal'. Herd Immunity does. With regards to vaccines, 12-18 months away. I am very happy to be corrected.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Cyrano » 06 Apr 2020 15:27

Having watched the recent daily briefings by the Dangerous Troll, I can say this cartoon in Deccan Chronicle captures it perfectly !

Image

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby suryag » 07 Apr 2020 01:12

Folks can we start carving out a Back from Lockout plan ? Which industries should we enable first, which industries little later. In my opinion, lets say we end the lockout on April 14, I would prefer to keep all restaurants, places of religious worship, theatres, schools, colleges etc closed but only open up travel for manufacturing jobs through curfew passes. All SW engrs except for essential support staff like SRE/IT Infra will stay home. Necessary Govt arms can start functioning while the rest remain in lock down. Of course, none of these places should serve tea/coffee/meals at their cafeterias to maintain distancing

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Karan M » 07 Apr 2020 02:32

Agree with the above.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Jay » 07 Apr 2020 05:21

suryag wrote:Folks can we start carving out a Back from Lockout plan ? Which industries should we enable first, which industries little later. In my opinion, lets say we end the lockout on April 14, I would prefer to keep all restaurants, places of religious worship, theatres, schools, colleges etc closed but only open up travel for manufacturing jobs through curfew passes. All SW engrs except for essential support staff like SRE/IT Infra will stay home. Necessary Govt arms can start functioning while the rest remain in lock down. Of course, none of these places should serve tea/coffee/meals at their cafeterias to maintain distancing


Phase 1:
At least 30 days

Extend the curfew till 4/30: This well help us get a handle on the pandemonium created by the JT idiots. Only essential services, and personnel allowed and all work that can be done from remote should continue

Phase 2
At least 30-60 days

1. Remove wide area lockout where spread is less than R0
2. Maintain lockout over regions where R0 is still greater than 1
3. No religious, educational, food(star hotels, sit in) entertainment, or any non necessary places of business open.
4. Restaurants in take out mode only, and food markets open with restrictions
4 Very limited transportation from and to areas where R0 < 1, and with proper screening.
5. Public buses, and planes still grounded. Taxis, and private travel permitted
6. Enforce wearing masks.
7. Enable corporations to open with limited employees for essential services. Every corp/office that is open should do daily screening of personnel and report any spikes.
8. Ramp up production of medical, and essential product manufacturing.
9. Government services will open up in a limited phase.

Phase 3

Until treatment for COVID-19 is in place or there is a vaccine.

1. Maintain lockout over regions where R0 is still greater than 1
2. Open up transportation in limited ways and access is only for people who do not have symptoms.
3. No outside events permitted where more than 50 un-screened people will attend
4. Indoor events are allowed only after screening measures are implemented and guidelines must be provide for restaurants, hotels, travel in planes, trains, and buses
5. Open all manufacturing with strict screenings in place. Work roles which can be remotely done should be remotely done.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby yensoy » 07 Apr 2020 10:12

I agree with extend the lockout till end of April, but the definition of essential services must expand, for instance:
1. Outpatient procedures
2. Eyeglasses, opthamologists, optometrists
3. SIM cards & mobile services
4. Technology equipment & supplies (to support WFH economy)
5. Household & automobile repair services for urgent situations
6. Packaged foods and entire related supply chain (plastics, boxes...)
7. Entire supply chain of non-food household supplies & toiletries
8. Skeletal internal flight service for those on traveling for essential business
9. Limited postal and courier services relevant to essentials
10.Open up delivery services after ensuring social distancing in warehouses & stores (allow local shops to supply goods, don't just hand over the business to the online biggies); allow local shops to advertise/curate their contact info in a website
11.Barber shops/parlours


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