Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Jay
BRFite
Posts: 246
Joined: 24 Feb 2005 18:24
Location: Gods Country
Contact:

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Jay » 07 Apr 2020 10:34

What's categorized as an essential service is an important factor that will decide how we can overcome, control, and eventually thrive while sharing the space with COVID-19.

In Phase1, an essential service is one which if needed to save lives, provide care for the ill/disabled, and those that will prevent the spread of the pandemic, and/or other life threatening events .

In Phase2, the definition should be expanded to items/and services that are needed to address to keep the economy from dying and to ramp up facilities/functions that will help us in controlling the pandemic to an acceptable level. An acceptable level is where we are confident that there will be no more uncontrolled spread barring an anomaly and we have infra accounted for all the sick

In Phase 3, no lock down on services but on events/gathering which exceed a designated number. Extensive screening protocols to root out local flare-ups which will eventually happen. The goal of this phase is to kick start life, and economy without risking of a second round of pandemic.

syam
BRFite
Posts: 749
Joined: 31 Jan 2017 00:13

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby syam » 07 Apr 2020 19:06


chinis putting videos of lifting up lock down in their big cities. please do your divisions and subtractions after watching it.

what i noticed in this video,
*guards wearing full body suits.
*peeps maintaining social distance.
*not removing masks even when getting haircut.
*surveillance taken to next level.

those guys who are ranting about resuming everything, please go through these videos and write your observations here.

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4603
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby chola » 07 Apr 2020 19:37

syam wrote:what i noticed in this video,
*guards wearing full body suits.
*peeps maintaining social distance.
*not removing masks even when getting haircut.
*surveillance taken to next level.

those guys who are ranting about resuming everything, please go through these videos and write your observations here.


Erh, Syam ji, wouldn't you want people to continue doing those things even after lockdown is lifted?

The recovery there is real though. We've been hearing about accelerating levels of economic activities in China from all the MNCs for the past two weeks.

The fears of a second wave is real too. So even as they restart the factories, restaurants (supposedly all chini Starbuck have re-opened) and tourist sites, the chances of a second wave grows exponentially.

syam
BRFite
Posts: 749
Joined: 31 Jan 2017 00:13

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby syam » 07 Apr 2020 19:52

chola wrote:Erh, Syam ji, wouldn't you want people to continue doing those things even after lockdown is lifted?

The recovery there is real though. We've been hearing about accelerating levels of economic activities in China from all the MNCs for the past two weeks.

The fears of a second wave is real too. So even as they restart the factories, restaurants (supposedly all chini Starbuck have re-opened) and tourist sites, the chances of a second wave grows exponentially.

call me skeptic. this sort of surveillance and body suits not looking feasible. i don't know how many countries can afford it. for all we know, this new thing might be another ccp's crazy idea to revive their economy.

i watched more than 5 videos so far. all of them have body suits. really not reassuring.

another video of post-corona,

Atmavik
BRFite
Posts: 725
Joined: 24 Aug 2016 04:43

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Atmavik » 07 Apr 2020 20:39

we watched a few videos of Chinese cities in mid-JAN and thought it was spooky. today most of the world is like that and wondering what recovery will look like. if this is what recovery looks like then i am afraid no one else can enforce such discipline(maybe NoKo). most of the western economies are based on consumption and this will depress the economy for a long time.

@chola saar how does one justify the US stock market level with this recovery in the future. we need a vaccine to get back to normal and the earliest seems to be 2021. mean-e-while enjoy pictures of a less polluted world.

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4603
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby chola » 07 Apr 2020 20:58

Syam ji, Atmavik ji, think of Cheen as a baseline. The markets see Cheen simply in these two scenarios:

A ) if Cheen can lift lockdown without a second wave then there is hope that everyone else can which is why markets are up (along with US money printing),

B ) if Cheen gets clobbered by the second wave then chances are that a lockdown cannot be lifted for anyone until there is a vaccine or herd immunity and the market plummets to unimaginable lows.

Cheen is the test case right now. If they can't restart without the virus coming back then the chances are almost nil that anyone else can. We are talking about restarting a major economy to can still trade -- not the cloistered but "safe" communities right now in Singapore and Taiwan who've cut off flights and communications to the outside world. That does nothing to bring back global activities.

rgosain
BRFite
Posts: 441
Joined: 10 Jan 2003 12:31

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby rgosain » 07 Apr 2020 21:30

Chola, the Japanese Government seems to be echoing your some of your key points. In declaring a state of emergency Japan is seeing a surge of new transmission and new clusters of infection in the Tokyo region, that provides a for more valid baseline than the numbers from the PRC.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/japan-shinzo-abe-declares-state-of-emergency-over-coronavirus

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4603
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby chola » 07 Apr 2020 21:47

rgosain wrote:Chola, the Japanese Government seems to be echoing your some of your key points. In declaring a state of emergency Japan is seeing a surge of new transmission and new clusters of infection in the Tokyo region, that provides a for more valid baseline than the numbers from the PRC.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/japan-shinzo-abe-declares-state-of-emergency-over-coronavirus


Japan never went into a full lockdown or even mass testing like Korea. They stopped flights from Cheen and Korea early to stop initial spread but did nothing since.

Their economy had been in the dumps even before the virus from the US-Chini trade war:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/07/japans-economy-has-been-dealt-the-final-blow-by-the-coronavirus-pandemic.html

None of the MNCs are looking at Japan's numbers as a model. Remember, the model needed is a major economy hit by infections, went into lockdown and comes out of it. Japan is just going into a lockdown now.

The best models would be Korea and Italy.

Korea took a huge hit in infections and then quickly got every under control with extreme testing and locking down the epicenter in Daegu. They operate rather close to the chini model with digital monitoring over everyone.

Italy will take a while before we see an attempt at lifting the lockdown. But they would be the best model with most complete data under comparable circumstances -- most countries cannot do what Korea did.

But waiting for Italy to take its first steps towards ending the lockdown will take weeks if not months.

Therefore, we are back at looking at Cheen's for clues on how ending a lockdown would look.

anmol
BRFite
Posts: 1836
Joined: 05 May 2009 17:39

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby anmol » 07 Apr 2020 22:19

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
2m

The W.H.O. really blew it. For some reason, funded largely by the United States, yet very China centric. We will be giving that a good look. Fortunately I rejected their advice on keeping our borders open to China early on. Why did they give us such a faulty recommendation?

Varoon Shekhar
BRFite
Posts: 1972
Joined: 03 Jan 2010 23:26

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Varoon Shekhar » 07 Apr 2020 23:22

That's one of the sensible and entirely justified statements of Donald Trump, because as someone mentioned, he's made some silly, ignorant and boorish ( including toward India on HQC) comments as well.

Yes, why isn't the WHO being thoroughly denounced worldwide for its horrendous bungling? In India, I've only seen one discussion on their misinformation, on India Today TV, and even that was quite mild.

By all means, be (intelligently) critical of the Indian government, but be much, much harder on the original culprits, China and the WHO.

Shameek
BRFite
Posts: 806
Joined: 02 Jan 2009 20:44
Location: Ionosphere

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Shameek » 07 Apr 2020 23:49

I hope one of the positives that comes out of this for India is a higher level of respect for the rule of law. The idea of anyone flouting authority with impunity and the mentality of everything works as long as you are in a 'mob' needs to stop. We must get to a new normal where someone beating up a policeman is an unthinkable act.
Hopefully this bad situation will reinforce some of this mindset and that will help with future 'activists' that try to derail the country.

Prithwiraj
BRFite
Posts: 234
Joined: 21 Dec 2016 18:48

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Prithwiraj » 08 Apr 2020 08:18

India might face influx of fleeing refugees from neighboring countries if their govt. can’t handle the situation. Bangladesh is of particular concern as border is super porous and terrain is flat. We need to completely seal the border

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4603
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby chola » 08 Apr 2020 08:26

Prithwiraj wrote:India might face influx of fleeing refugees from neighboring countries if their govt. can’t handle the situation. Bangladesh is of particular concern as border is super porous and terrain is flat. We need to completely seal the border


If the chini virus goes viral in Bangladesh then it is a worse case scenario. How long have we talked about the millions of illegals across West Bengal, Assam and the rest of the Northeast from Bangladesh? What makes things different this time that we can seal the border now? Nothing, I'm afraid.

sanjaykumar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4473
Joined: 16 Oct 2005 05:51

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby sanjaykumar » 08 Apr 2020 08:32

There is an Indian YouTube Chanel called WION. They have a robust approach to China.

Prithwiraj
BRFite
Posts: 234
Joined: 21 Dec 2016 18:48

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Prithwiraj » 08 Apr 2020 08:54

chola wrote:
Prithwiraj wrote:India might face influx of fleeing refugees from neighboring countries if their govt. can’t handle the situation. Bangladesh is of particular concern as border is super porous and terrain is flat. We need to completely seal the border


If the chini virus goes viral in Bangladesh then it is a worse case scenario. How long have we talked about the millions of illegals across West Bengal, Assam and the rest of the Northeast from Bangladesh? What makes things different this time that we can seal the border now? Nothing, I'm afraid.


A huge population of Bangladeshi immigrants are there in Italy.. street vendors, restaurent workers etc. I am sure given the economic impact they will have to return to Bangladesh carrying it.

mappunni
BRFite
Posts: 231
Joined: 14 Jul 2017 19:07

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby mappunni » 08 Apr 2020 09:06

sanjaykumar wrote:There is an Indian YouTube Chanel called WION. They have a robust approach to China.


And the Anchor Palki Sharma!!

g.sarkar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2457
Joined: 09 Jul 2005 12:22
Location: MERCED, California

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby g.sarkar » 08 Apr 2020 10:05

https://www.rediff.com/news/interview/c ... 200406.htm
'There are reports of political dissent mounting on Xi Jinping's handling of the Wuhan fallout.'
"The next two years will witness intense political jockeying for top posts in China," Srikanth Kondapalli, professor in Chinese studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, tells Sheela Bhatt in the concluding segment of a two-part interview.

Chinese President Xi Jinping called US President Donald J Trump. What does it signify? Is America's coronavirus crisis compelling President Trump to repair the strained US-China relationship?
In the light of the spread of COVID-19 from China to different parts of the world, including into the US, the telephonic conversation between the presidents of the US and China appeared to have led to a cooling down in relations.
Xi suggested that both need to cooperate while Trump acknowledged the 'strong understanding' of China in addressing the virus.
While such a conversation is necessary for strategic stability, there are many underlying tensions between the two that cannot be resolved in the short to medium term.
China-United States relations have become strategic in nature recently. They are the first and second largest economies in the world.
In the last few years, the new US government under Trump has been revising the four-decade China policy and has been demanding reciprocity in all aspects. This has led to enormous tensions in bilateral relations. President Trump has been demanding full market access which China enjoyed with every country after it joined the World Trade Organisation and earned the second largest economy status as well as the largest exporting country.
The US has also been critical of China's positions in Tibet, Xinjiang, Taiwan, South China Sea and others.
The latest issue that led to acrimony between the two countries is when President Trump insisted that it is a 'Chinese virus"' and US Secretary of State Pompeo called it 'Wuhan virus'. China accused the US of spreading the virus during the Wuhan military sports event in October last year. China thinks that the US is containing it while the US assumes that Beijing is trying to replace it as the hegemon.
Foreign Minister Wang Yi's intervention at the Munich Security Conference suggested to the upcoming conflict with the US while the US national security strategy identified China (and Russia) as strategic competititors.
Chinese President Xi Jinping called US President Donald J Trump. What does it signify? Is America's coronavirus crisis compelling President Trump to repair the strained US-China relationship?
In the light of the spread of COVID-19 from China to different parts of the world, including into the US, the telephonic conversation between the presidents of the US and China appeared to have led to a cooling down in relations.
Xi suggested that both need to cooperate while Trump acknowledged the 'strong understanding' of China in addressing the virus. While such a conversation is necessary for strategic stability, there are many underlying tensions between the two that cannot be resolved in the short to medium term.
China-United States relations have become strategic in nature recently. They are the first and second largest economies in the world.
In the last few years, the new US government under Trump has been revising the four-decade China policy and has been demanding reciprocity in all aspects. This has led to enormous tensions in bilateral relations. President Trump has been demanding full market access which China enjoyed with every country after it joined the World Trade Organisation and earned the second largest economy status as well as the largest exporting country.
The US has also been critical of China's positions in Tibet, Xinjiang, Taiwan, South China Sea and others.
.....
Gautam

vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4518
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby vijayk » 08 Apr 2020 21:34

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/artic ... 42886.html
How the Wuhan Virus Will Change the World Order

The biggest will involve China. The pandemic not only originated there, it spread because of how China is governed. The Chinese Communist Party, like all dictatorships, maintains tight control over information. It gives out only what helps the regime, hides whatever hurts it, spews propaganda, and cracks down on anyone who speaks out of turn. The Wuhan doctors who first sounded the alarm bells were immediately silenced. Science labs, which decoded the viral structure, were shut down and their data destroyed. China still won’t share vital information about how the virus works and how it affects different populations. Reporters, both professional and amateur, who mentioned the pandemic were suppressed. Some international reporters were expelled. Some locals have not been seen again.
These harsh, secretive measures are not accidental. They are essential to how the CCP governs China. Still, some information has leaked out, despite the peril. It looks like 40,000-50,000 funeral urns have been shipped to Wuhan, 20 times as many as the official death toll. Yet China is still handing out make-believe data, hindering other countries’ efforts to cope.
We don’t know exactly when Beijing officials learned about Wuhan’s troubles, but it was probably early- to mid-December. They didn’t learn earlier because local officials know the surest way to lose your position is to give your boss bad news. So they withheld it. When Beijing did learn, it intensified the crackdown and enforced stay-at-home orders. The CCP then delayed telling the world. It also refused multiple offers of medical help. Some say they refused out of national pride. Perhaps, but they also feared what outside professionals might find.

Meanwhile, Beijing continued to send official delegations around the world, including one to the White House and a huge one to Davos, long after it knew the dangers. Far worse, it allowed more than 750,000 people to fly to the U.S. in December, January, and February, again, after CCP officials knew the virus was highly contagious and spreading quickly. Where did they fly, besides America? Well, Italy, for starters. Wherever Chinese people like to vacation. And wherever China has economic and strategic interests. The first global hot spots show exactly where they landed. The contagion spread its deadly tentacles from there.
Why didn’t the World Health Organization sound the alarm? For two reasons: It had bad information (from China) and it never confronts Beijing, which effectively controls the organization, even though it is a far-smaller donor than the U.S. The CCP has a crucial say over who holds senior positions at the WHO, and it shows. That’s why a top official there actually hung up -- on camera -- when a reporter had the temerity to ask about Taiwan’s success in combating the virus. That’s why, in mid-January, the WHO was still telling the world exactly what China told them: The novel-coronavirus did not spread by human-to-human contact. The WHO probably believed that, but by then Beijing must have known it was false. The WHO also opposed President Trump’s decision to block travel from China, the most important early step to limit the pandemic in America.
The WHO’s fecklessness mattered. According to Dr. Deborah Birx, reports from the WHO and China led U.S. health officials to think, wrongly, that this problem was much like SARS, serious but manageable. It was far worse than that and far more contagious. We should have been told.
The WHO is probably beyond repair. China won’t give up its authority there, and the U.S. shouldn’t give China more weight by withdrawing. But it should cut back sharply on funding, and so should other advanced democracies. Together, they should form a parallel organization, a NATO/Health entity that includes not only America, Canada, the U.K. and EU but also Israel, Ireland, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Taiwan. All are established democracies with developed, high-tech economies and sophisticated medical research and public health systems. Their data can be trusted, and they are transparent enough to share it. They need an easy, institutionalized way to cooperate, outside the politicized, corrupted WHO.


The biggest will involve China. The pandemic not only originated there, it spread because of how China is governed. The Chinese Communist Party, like all dictatorships, maintains tight control over information. It gives out only what helps the regime, hides whatever hurts it, spews propaganda, and cracks down on anyone who speaks out of turn. The Wuhan doctors who first sounded the alarm bells were immediately silenced. Science labs, which decoded the viral structure, were shut down and their data destroyed. China still won’t share vital information about how the virus works and how it affects different populations. Reporters, both professional and amateur, who mentioned the pandemic were suppressed. Some international reporters were expelled. Some locals have not been seen again.
These harsh, secretive measures are not accidental. They are essential to how the CCP governs China. Still, some information has leaked out, despite the peril. It looks like 40,000-50,000 funeral urns have been shipped to Wuhan, 20 times as many as the official death toll. Yet China is still handing out make-believe data, hindering other countries’ efforts to cope.
We don’t know exactly when Beijing officials learned about Wuhan’s troubles, but it was probably early- to mid-December. They didn’t learn earlier because local officials know the surest way to lose your position is to give your boss bad news. So they withheld it. When Beijing did learn, it intensified the crackdown and enforced stay-at-home orders. The CCP then delayed telling the world. It also refused multiple offers of medical help. Some say they refused out of national pride. Perhaps, but they also feared what outside professionals might find.

Meanwhile, Beijing continued to send official delegations around the world, including one to the White House and a huge one to Davos, long after it knew the dangers. Far worse, it allowed more than 750,000 people to fly to the U.S. in December, January, and February, again, after CCP officials knew the virus was highly contagious and spreading quickly. Where did they fly, besides America? Well, Italy, for starters. Wherever Chinese people like to vacation. And wherever China has economic and strategic interests. The first global hot spots show exactly where they landed. The contagion spread its deadly tentacles from there.
Why didn’t the World Health Organization sound the alarm? For two reasons: It had bad information (from China) and it never confronts Beijing, which effectively controls the organization, even though it is a far-smaller donor than the U.S. The CCP has a crucial say over who holds senior positions at the WHO, and it shows. That’s why a top official there actually hung up -- on camera -- when a reporter had the temerity to ask about Taiwan’s success in combating the virus. That’s why, in mid-January, the WHO was still telling the world exactly what China told them: The novel-coronavirus did not spread by human-to-human contact. The WHO probably believed that, but by then Beijing must have known it was false. The WHO also opposed President Trump’s decision to block travel from China, the most important early step to limit the pandemic in America.
The WHO’s fecklessness mattered. According to Dr. Deborah Birx, reports from the WHO and China led U.S. health officials to think, wrongly, that this problem was much like SARS, serious but manageable. It was far worse than that and far more contagious. We should have been told.
The WHO is probably beyond repair. China won’t give up its authority there, and the U.S. shouldn’t give China more weight by withdrawing. But it should cut back sharply on funding, and so should other advanced democracies. Together, they should form a parallel organization, a NATO/Health entity that includes not only America, Canada, the U.K. and EU but also Israel, Ireland, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Taiwan. All are established democracies with developed, high-tech economies and sophisticated medical research and public health systems. Their data can be trusted, and they are transparent enough to share it. They need an easy, institutionalized way to cooperate, outside the politicized, corrupted WHO.

arshyam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3785
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby arshyam » 08 Apr 2020 23:49

^^ Interesting, it's like we don't even exist for these people, and no, I am not referring to china.

As Tagore famously wrote, we must "ekla cholo re" towards our destiny. Whoever wants is free to follow us.

Zynda
BRFite
Posts: 1876
Joined: 07 Jan 2006 00:37
Location: J4

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Zynda » 09 Apr 2020 00:12

I am not surprised. During my time in massa, my observations was that (& you may have observed the same as well) in most US news channels, India gets only mentioned if there is an incident where loss of lives are significant and probably the only positive event I remember being reported is Chandrayaan. For many US folks, their "world" is primarily domestic and countries whose happenings may affect US interests/lives.

So yep, we have to shape our destiny ourselves...anyways OT to this thread.

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4603
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby chola » 09 Apr 2020 00:40

^^^ They didn't care about Cheen either until it was big enough to affect their jobs and their position as Number One.

If you want to be relevant, grow your economy until you are. Once we get there we'll get the same attention as Cheen. You mark my words.

Vamsee
BRFite
Posts: 606
Joined: 16 Mar 2001 12:31

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Vamsee » 09 Apr 2020 01:47

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
1h
Extraordinary times require even closer cooperation between friends. Thank you India and the Indian people for the decision on HCQ. Will not be forgotten! Thank you Prime Minister
@NarendraModi for your strong leadership in helping not just India, but humanity, in this fight!

sudarshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2297
Joined: 09 Aug 2008 08:56

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby sudarshan » 09 Apr 2020 02:28

Vamsee wrote:Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
1h
Extraordinary times require even closer cooperation between friends. Thank you India and the Indian people for the decision on HCQ. Will not be forgotten! Thank you Prime Minister
@NarendraModi for your strong leadership in helping not just India, but humanity, in this fight!


Should make for a good contrast between quality of Chinese "assistance" and Indian. I think it has a good likelihood of being forgotten though, need to make sure to keep reminding.

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4603
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby chola » 09 Apr 2020 02:44

^^^ Trump can't say that because he called Pooh Bear last week to set up 22 flights of PPE from Cheen.

Atmavik
BRFite
Posts: 725
Joined: 24 Aug 2016 04:43

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Atmavik » 09 Apr 2020 06:04

Vamsee wrote:Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
1h
Extraordinary times require even closer cooperation between friends. Thank you India and the Indian people for the decision on HCQ. Will not be forgotten! Thank you Prime Minister
@NarendraModi for your strong leadership in helping not just India, but humanity, in this fight!


so now that trump got his HCQ hope we get engine core tech. would be nice boost to kaveri program.

suryag
Forum Moderator
Posts: 3624
Joined: 11 Jan 2009 00:14

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby suryag » 09 Apr 2020 06:06

chola wrote:^^^ Trump can't say that because he called Pooh Bear last week to set up 22 flights of PPE from Cheen.


Good luck to Trump dada on the PPE, he better check and buy everything

Karan M
Forum Moderator
Posts: 19508
Joined: 19 Mar 2010 00:58

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Karan M » 09 Apr 2020 06:56

I hope the post Wuhan world has Modi, Goyal et al take a hard hard look at the economy and domestic production. For whatever reason, the Modi led Govts focus on the economy has been lack-luster in terms of what was expected, and what was done. Appeared more and more like a wealth transfer scheme. I hope the focus now is more and more on desi-gear and kicking out the PRC from most areas where India can buy Indian.

Cain Marko
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4374
Joined: 26 Jun 2005 10:26

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Cain Marko » 09 Apr 2020 12:00

Lots of chatter on right wing US channels on perfidy of China and WHO. Statements made by everyone from Trump and Pence to AG Barr to Navarro. It'll get more shrill as numbers hit peak in coming days and later when people start to take stock.

Shameek
BRFite
Posts: 806
Joined: 02 Jan 2009 20:44
Location: Ionosphere

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Shameek » 09 Apr 2020 19:12

Karan M wrote:I hope the post Wuhan world has Modi, Goyal et al take a hard hard look at the economy and domestic production. For whatever reason, the Modi led Govts focus on the economy has been lack-luster in terms of what was expected, and what was done. Appeared more and more like a wealth transfer scheme. I hope the focus now is more and more on desi-gear and kicking out the PRC from most areas where India can buy Indian.


Taking this idea further, how could the focus of reshaping the manufacturing sector be directed? At one point long before all this, I had advocated imposing heavy tariffs on all imported items below a certain sale price (e.g. Rs. 2000) so people don't buy crappy Chinese toys and umbrellas and it gives a push to small scale industries in India. On the other hand I can also see the argument of importing cheap items and focusing our attention and capital towards high technology sectors.

It would be interesting to have a discussion along these lines if there are economists out there!

Atmavik
BRFite
Posts: 725
Joined: 24 Aug 2016 04:43

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Atmavik » 09 Apr 2020 20:23

Cain Marko wrote:Lots of chatter on right wing US channels on perfidy of China and WHO. Statements made by everyone from Trump and Pence to AG Barr to Navarro. It'll get more shrill as numbers hit peak in coming days and later when people start to take stock.


the chatter is mostly from the true maverick section of the right. they don't have much money. i don't hear a peep from the wall st types in fact some are even praising china. looks like china might be coming off stronger from this event.

tandav
BRFite
Posts: 597
Joined: 26 Aug 2016 08:24

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby tandav » 09 Apr 2020 23:57

I feel land/real estate cost has been the biggest reason why manufacturing has not taken off...

If I want to manufacture a widget say a broom where do I go to put together an assembly line and where do I get the expertise...my suggestion

Let the Govt setup a large enclosed shed facility say 100000 sqm each with nearby dorm for workers... and people can rent the space per sqft.

Those who want to manufacture stuff will pop setup the unit inside, warehouse space made available.

Common utilities such as: power, water, high pressure air, Waste water, cold water (run as a service to customer)

The idea is that manufacturers can quickly pull common resources available to manufacturer *products of opportunity*

rgosain
BRFite
Posts: 441
Joined: 10 Jan 2003 12:31

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby rgosain » 10 Apr 2020 00:56

Cain Marko wrote:Lots of chatter on right wing US channels on perfidy of China and WHO. Statements made by everyone from Trump and Pence to AG Barr to Navarro. It'll get more shrill as numbers hit peak in coming days and later when people start to take stock.


A lot of Wall street types and hedge fund managers in London have PRC princeling wives and this will negate some of the retribution, however there is still a lot that can done:
https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/how-to-make-china-pay/?utm_source=recirc-desktop&utm_medium=article&utm_campaign=river&utm_content=most-popular&utm_term=second

yensoy
BRFite
Posts: 1750
Joined: 29 May 2002 11:31
Location: USA

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby yensoy » 10 Apr 2020 01:01

tandav wrote:I feel land/real estate cost has been the biggest reason why manufacturing has not taken off...

If I want to manufacture a widget say a broom where do I go to put together an assembly line and where do I get the expertise...my suggestion

Let the Govt setup a large enclosed shed facility say 100000 sqm each with nearby dorm for workers... and people can rent the space per sqft.

Those who want to manufacture stuff will pop setup the unit inside, warehouse space made available.

Common utilities such as: power, water, high pressure air, Waste water, cold water (run as a service to customer)

The idea is that manufacturers can quickly pull common resources available to manufacturer *products of opportunity*


This is exactly what I was telling my dad yesterday (in the context of replacing the workshops of Dharavi). This is the need of the hour. It's like the Cloud of industry. People don't need expensive outlays on property, or long term leases, and to worry about worker safety, lighting and fire codes. They just rent a section in a big workshop - the equipment is theirs (which they can lockup at night). These workshops are well lit & ventilated, have wide corridors, are fire safe, and provide employee comforts like restrooms and canteens (again, contracted out). Space is by the month, with a 3 month deposit and 2 month notice to vacate.

V_Raman
BRFite
Posts: 643
Joined: 04 Sep 2008 22:25

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby V_Raman » 10 Apr 2020 01:06

We have tried that in India already - the industrial estates. They dont have the dorms. But it is not hard in India to find rental accomodation close to the Industrial estates. There are multiple around Chennai for example - Guindy Industrial estate, Ambattur Industrial estate

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13844
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby pankajs » 10 Apr 2020 01:16

https://twitter.com/danharris/status/12 ... 3006373891
Dan Harris @danharris

This 100% matches what my law firm is seeing from our clients. Nearly all desperately want to cut their manufacturing ties w/ China. They're tired of China's unreliability and xenophobia and they see consumer anger at China's mishandling of coronavirus.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/ ... 63bd7840fe

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4603
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby chola » 10 Apr 2020 01:29

tandav wrote:I feel land/real estate cost has been the biggest reason why manufacturing has not taken off...

If I want to manufacture a widget say a broom where do I go to put together an assembly line and where do I get the expertise...my suggestion

Let the Govt setup a large enclosed shed facility say 100000 sqm each with nearby dorm for workers... and people can rent the space per sqft.

Those who want to manufacture stuff will pop setup the unit inside, warehouse space made available.

Common utilities such as: power, water, high pressure air, Waste water, cold water (run as a service to customer)

The idea is that manufacturers can quickly pull common resources available to manufacturer *products of opportunity*


It's not just the dorms and workspaces. It's the whole infrastructure -- power, transportation and warehousing too.

All that costs billions upon billions over many years of investment.

You need to pick and chose where you spend your precious treasury on too. No one, not even the US or Cheen, can build up everything at once.

In general, you want to start off with the base infrastructure first -- power and transportation -- because that support everything else that follows. The problem with those is they will not give immediate return. It is factories that can do that by earning hard currency from sales.

But without power you can't manufacture chit and without transportation you can't bring your chit to market even if you could make them.

Just ramping up shopspace and dorms won't do it.

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4603
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby chola » 10 Apr 2020 01:45

pankajs wrote:https://twitter.com/danharris/status/1247910483006373891
Dan Harris @danharris

This 100% matches what my law firm is seeing from our clients. Nearly all desperately want to cut their manufacturing ties w/ China. They're tired of China's unreliability and xenophobia and they see consumer anger at China's mishandling of coronavirus.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/ ... 63bd7840fe


This was happening before the virus among SMEs because of the trade war. It will accelerate after the virus as whatever suppliers they were using had gone out of business or the American SMEs themselves went kaput.

For the MNCs, every one of them is desperate to get boots back into Cheen because they need that income as the chini economy comes back online and the West is still in lockdown.

The only ray of light in the corporate boardrooms these days are the reports of their China divisions. Things like coffee (Starbucks) and food (Hormel, they make Spam) had been picking in Cheen the last few weeks. The big one this week is cars.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/car-makers-get-a-boost-as-chinese-plants-slowly-return-to-life-11586431763

Eventually the China market will be reserved for the MNCs only. The smaller firms will exit it completely. To be honest, I don't know if it is a good thing. MNCs can always wall or spin off overseas operations when political pressure gets to them. SMEs lose an avenue for growth.

nam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3561
Joined: 05 Jan 2017 20:48

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby nam » 10 Apr 2020 03:31

tandav wrote:I feel land/real estate cost has been the biggest reason why manufacturing has not taken off...


The reason why it has not taken off.. is becoz the train has already left the station. Just like we had first movers advantage with IT services, Chinis had first movers advantage with manufacturing, while we are dreaming of socialism and what not..

Try as much the Chinis want, they are not able to dislodge us from the IT sector. Just as nobody could dislodge them from manufacturing.

They now have the scale to price out anyone from the market. Doesn't matter what reforms are done. Land, labour, weather, whatever... If they are not able to sell due to whatever reason, they will be forced to sell it at rock bottom prices.. how can anyone compete with that?

So what is the way out?
Two things: Every large government order SHOULD buy local, with forced import substitution.
Second, use the German model. They have huge export surplus in manufacturing. They produce quality stuff, for which people are ready to pay. Even the chinese could not beat them,

SriKumar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2007
Joined: 27 Feb 2006 07:22
Location: sarvatra

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby SriKumar » 10 Apr 2020 04:28

nam wrote:
tandav wrote:I feel land/real estate cost has been the biggest reason why manufacturing has not taken off...
The reason why it has not taken off.. is becoz the train has already left the station. Just like we had first movers advantage with IT services, Chinis had first movers advantage with manufacturing, while we are dreaming of socialism and what not..
'Train leaving the station' implies that the sector is allowed to be influenced by market forces. Until last year, this argument would have found favor, but COVID situation shows why market forces should not be the ultimate arbiter of which industry is allowed to be vulnerable to China-scale competition. Manufacturing, in some critical and even less critical areas, is an area requiring self-sufficiency, even if it comes at a higher price of goods. Some amount of protectionism is needed to keep them alive- current events show why this is needed, and I dont think this will come voluntarily from people. Some amount of govt tariffs/taxes on imports plus subsidies on locally produced goods is needed. Defense industry was always similarly protected (though the import lobby is very strong in India), pharma too. Its time other industries are given some cover. Or else the people are condemned to repeat this again, maybe in 50-100 years time (long enough for people to forget).

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 54384
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby ramana » 10 Apr 2020 06:42

ramana wrote:Have people read Kissinger article in NYT?



Response to Kissinger article in NYT.



Kissinger's post-pandemic world order and the demise of the Chinese Communist Party


April 9, 2020 by Joseph Bosco, opinion contributor



America’s oracle of realpolitik, Henry Kissinger, seeks to put the coronavirus pandemic in the context of his ongoing narrative of the changing world order.

In his two recent books, “On China” and “World Order,” Kissinger describes the geopolitical dynamics of the past half-century. He sees the changes as having laid the groundwork for a massive shift in world influence from the United States and the West to the People’s Republic of China.

It is a revolutionary transition that he played a major, if not dominant, part in arranging as an adviser to eight U.S. presidents and, simultaneously, to five supreme leaders of Communist China.
Yet, in the 828 words of his Wall Street Journal article, “The Coronavirus Pandemic Will Forever Alter the World Order,” Kissinger never mentions China. It is unclear whether he had it in mind when he predicted the pandemic’s aftermath: “Many countries’ institutions will be perceived as having failed.” 

The direct cause of China’s epidemic exploding into a global pandemic was the flagrant refusal of the communist authorities to control it immediately or to allow international experts in to investigate. But, for Kissinger’s purposes in this essay, that is not a matter worth considering.  “To argue now about the past only makes it harder to do what has to be done,” he writes.

He is not reluctant, however, to identify U.S. shortcomings that span several administrations: insufficient medical supplies, overwhelmed intensive care units, inadequate testing resources, no cure, no vaccine. Still, he acknowledges, “The U.S. administration has done a solid job in avoiding an immediate catastrophe.”

But, depending on the pandemic’s outcome, Kissinger sees the consequences for the United States as almost existential. The Trump administration’s ability to “arrest and then reverse” the spread of the virus will determine the prospects for “public confidence in Americans’ ability to govern themselves.” As for the Chinese people’s trust in the communist authorities ruling them, he is silent about the signs of further erosion. Nor does the regime’s disinformation campaign to deflect blame to the United States merit his attention.  

Instead, Kissinger instructs U.S. officials not to neglect “the urgent task of launching a parallel enterprise for the transition to the post-coronavirus order.” Based on his previous writings and his 50 years of activities since Richard Nixon enlisted him to help with the opening to China, it is likely that the new world order he envisions is some form of China-U.S. condominium, with China increasingly the dominant "partner."

But such a relationship, which essentially means carrying the recent engagement compulsion to its logical conclusion, inevitably would conflict with Kissinger’s subsidiary admonition to “safeguard the principles of the liberal world order. … The world’s democracies need to defend and sustain their Enlightenment values.” He lists “justice” along with the usual state responsibility to provide security and economic well-being, but is silent on whether human rights and the expansion of democracy should be pursued.

Kissinger avoids the issue by simply deferring it, saying, “This millennial issue of legitimacy cannot be settled simultaneously with the effort to overcome the COVID-19 plague … priorities must be established.” The problem with this approach, as Kissinger has used it in the past, is that it always prioritizes order over legitimacy or justice. After the communist regime’s massacre of peaceful sit-in student demonstrators in Tiananmen Square, Kissinger said Deng Xiaoping acted as any other leader would in a similar situation.

If, as Kissinger argues, political reform cannot be achieved and should not even be attempted during times of crisis, it might be expected that safeguarding the liberal world order and sustaining Enlightenment values should be the West’s priority project at all other times. But those are not the goals of China’s ruling Communist Party, and Kissinger has spent an entire career prevailing upon Western leaders to accept this China for what it is and to make room for it in the ever-evolving world order.

That, however, was not what Nixon had in mind when he first educated the Soviet nuclear scholar and Harvard professor on the nature of the China challenge and the urgent need to change its system and world outlook. When he dispatched Kissinger to Beijing to prepare for Nixon’s upcoming visit, he cautioned him about the need to avoid making preemptive concessions to China.  
But that advice was not followed, beginning with the abandonment of Taiwan. Decades later, and despite Taiwan’s full democratization, Kissinger still seeks the consummation of that betrayal, warning the Taiwanese government and people that Beijing’s patience is wearing thin. True to form, Xi Jinping has repeated Kissinger’s message and has escalated military preparations against Taiwan.  

Just as an increasingly reckless and irresponsible China unleashed the coronavirus pandemic on the world, its actions may well cause war to break out across the Taiwan Strait. If so — and like the pandemic, Tiananmen, Uighur concentration camps, live organ harvesting, persecution of dissidents and a range of other moral outrages, the institution of the Chinese Communist Party “will be perceived as having failed.” It will, at long last, be time for it to go. Priorities must be established.  


Joseph Bosco served as China country director for the secretary of Defense from 2005 to 2006 and as Asia-Pacific director of humanitarian assistance and disaster relief from 2009 to 2010. He is a nonresident fellow at the Institute for Corean-American Studies and a member of the advisory board of the Global Taiwan Institute.



Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 25 guests