I would highly encourage all to go through this document: https://www.slideshare.net/mobile/worki ... evelopment
Every word from pg 18 - 25 should be read.
It is literally a narration of the new global 'era' we have entered, from a 30k ft perspective. This was authored in 2010 by the Rockefeller foundation. I found a lot of it's high level scenario details to be on track despite being 10 years old and - therefore indicating that it is robust and can be used reliably for orientation.
My reading of key stated/unstated salient points in the lock step scenario which is of our interest,
1. Scenario is triggered by a pandemic
2. Predicts catastrophic, accelerated impact on retail, tourism and global trade
3. Predicts massive death tolls in Africa, Latin America and South East Asia (yet to see this)
4. China acts swiftly to apply mass quarantines and lockdowns to successfully execute containment; recovers far quicker than other countries
5. US fails on point 4 above miserably
6. Globally governments enforce stricter, authoritarian and more intrusive controls over citizens during pandemic
7. These controls and surveillances are continued post pandemic since governments say these are also effective against other risks - cross border terror, risk of pandemic recurrence as well as managing poverty, climate change and illegal migration challenges
8. This imposition of stricter controls will meet with initial enthusiasm amongst citizens looking for stability and security
9. Control will take many manifestations - from tracking biometric based IDs to national protection of industries deemed strategic
10. Post covid developed countries will make a slow recovery to pre covid economic activity levels - a depression is far likelier than a recession
11. In developing countries results will vary. In countries with able leadership (India is mentioned as one such country), recovery will be made albeit under a depression. Other countries with poor and incapable leadership will not and people there will suffer greatly, going to a permanently worse economic reality (Pak is a likely candidate here - we should think how we dont loose this opportunity).
12. Globally nationalism will become more and more chauvinistic.
13. Technology and trade diffusion from developed western nations to developing countries will decrease significantly (China will try and occupy this role/space - India nees to give China a run for its money).
14. Developing countries with large enough resource base will fill this technoligy gap due to western withdrawal internally, as best as they can (India comes to mind). Others will not be so lucky (say like B'desh).
15. Countries will become much more involved in economic activities (laissez faire rollback) and semi/fully nationalize key industries, setting priorities on what to develop and how much (main focus on national prerogatives). I believe mainy export driven economies such as SoKo, Japan in near-mid term and Oil economies such as Russia, KSA in the mid term will suffer.
16. Trade wars and protectionism will escalate over issues including IT, IP ownership etc
17. Regional groupings across Asia, Africa and Latin America will gain prominence (as global agencies such as UN, WHO, IMF are gradually abandoned)
18. As gora powers recede to their boundaries, China will go on a satellite hunting spree - to gain markets, supplychains and geopolitical influence. Using its strong position pre covid and faster recovery it will buy influence across Asia, Africa and Latin America.
19. China will expand its global military presence and place bases a la America.
20. These bases and influence will be the hotspots of flare ups in the new Cold war, much like Korea, Vietnam or Afghanistan were in the old one.
21. US and its allies will continue to support violent "democratic movements" in countries with heavy pro-Chinese, authoritative regimes.
22. Whether China can then continue to push back the west till we enter a clear pax Sina or whether such conflicts suck China dry to the point of collapse like USSR or whether these result in a catastrophic ww3 cant be determined with any degree of certainty.
23. Interestingly, the 'life in lock step' section almost completely foreshadows the rise of a Hindu nationalistic (for want of a better word), type of govt - which it did in 2014 (although this was pre covid of course). This may mean BJP only gets stronger in covid/post covid times.
What makes this report staggeringly important to me is that even though authored in 2010, the opening moves and early indicators (Chinese medical diplomacy to gain influence, early "recovery", US bungling, economic sectors impacted etc) seem to be quite spot on.
Even if not a roadmap, this can certainly serve as a great starting point or even preliminary blueprint of the next 10-15 years to come.
It is heartening to see Modiji already, whether instinctively or deliberately, starting to play the right counter moves.
Using HCQ diplomacy to draw allied powers closer - apart from the obvious US - Brazil, Ghana, Israel, Spain, Germany, Bahrain, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Maldives and Bangladesh, is a good start.
It is clear though that things in the next 10-30 years will get quite ugly before we even get a peep of stabler times. Still this opens up opportunities for Bharat and we all must do our part to make sure we help the country make the most of them.