Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby ramana » 10 Apr 2020 08:03

ramana wrote:Have people read Kissinger article in NYT?




The surreal atmosphere of the Covid-19 pandemic calls to mind how I felt as a young man in the 84th Infantry Division during the Battle of the Bulge. Now, as in late 1944, there is a sense of inchoate danger, aimed not at any particular person, but striking randomly and with devastation. But there is an important difference between that faraway time and ours. American endurance then was fortified by an ultimate national purpose. Now, in a divided country, efficient and farsighted government is necessary to overcome obstacles unprecedented in magnitude and global scope. Sustaining the public trust is crucial to social solidarity, to the relation of societies with each other, and to international peace and stability.
Nations cohere and flourish on the belief that their institutions can foresee calamity, arrest its impact and restore stability. When the Covid-19 pandemic is over, many countries’ institutions will be perceived as having failed. Whether this judgment is objectively fair is irrelevant. The reality is the world will never be the same after the coronavirus. To argue now about the past only makes it harder to do what has to be done.
The coronavirus has struck with unprecedented scale and ferocity. Its spread is exponential: U.S. cases are doubling every fifth day. At this writing, there is no cure. Medical supplies are insufficient to cope with the widening waves of cases. Intensive-care units are on the verge, and beyond, of being overwhelmed. Testing is inadequate to the task of identifying the extent of infection, much less reversing its spread. A successful vaccine could be 12 to 18 months away.



The U.S. administration has done a solid job in avoiding immediate catastrophe. The ultimate test will be whether the virus’s spread can be arrested and then reversed in a manner and at a scale that maintains public confidence in Americans’ ability to govern themselves. The crisis effort, however vast and necessary, must not crowd out the urgent task of launching a parallel enterprise for the transition to the post-coronavirus order.

Leaders are dealing with the crisis on a largely national basis, but the virus’s society-dissolving effects do not recognize borders. While the assault on human health will—hopefully—be temporary, the political and economic upheaval it has unleashed could last for generations. No country, not even the U.S., can in a purely national effort overcome the virus. Addressing the necessities of the moment must ultimately be coupled with a global collaborative vision and program. If we cannot do both in tandem, we will face the worst of each.
Drawing lessons from the development of the Marshall Plan and the Manhattan Project, the U.S. is obliged to undertake a major effort in three domains. First, shore up global resilience to infectious disease. Triumphs of medical science like the polio vaccine and the eradication of smallpox, or the emerging statistical-technical marvel of medical diagnosis through artificial intelligence, have lulled us into a dangerous complacency. We need to develop new techniques and technologies for infection control and commensurate vaccines across large populations. Cities, states and regions must consistently prepare to protect their people from pandemics through stockpiling, cooperative planning and exploration at the frontiers of science.


Second, strive to heal the wounds to the world economy. Global leaders have learned important lessons from the 2008 financial crisis. The current economic crisis is more complex: The contraction unleashed by the coronavirus is, in its speed and global scale, unlike anything ever known in history. And necessary public-health measures such as social distancing and closing schools and businesses are contributing to the economic pain. Programs should also seek to ameliorate the effects of impending chaos on the world’s most vulnerable populations.
Third, safeguard the principles of the liberal world order.

The founding legend of modern government is a walled city protected by powerful rulers, sometimes despotic, other times benevolent, yet always strong enough to protect the people from an external enemy. Enlightenment thinkers reframed this concept, arguing that the purpose of the legitimate state is to provide for the fundamental needs of the people: security, order, economic well-being, and justice. Individuals cannot secure these things on their own. The pandemic has prompted an anachronism, a revival of the walled city in an age when prosperity depends on global trade and movement of people.
The world’s democracies need to defend and sustain their Enlightenment values. A global retreat from balancing power with legitimacy will cause the social contract to disintegrate both domestically and internationally. Yet this millennial issue of legitimacy and power cannot be settled simultaneously with the effort to overcome the Covid-19 plague. Restraint is necessary on all sides—in both domestic politics and international diplomacy. Priorities must be established.


We went on from the Battle of the Bulge into a world of growing prosperity and enhanced human dignity. Now, we live an epochal period. The historic challenge for leaders is to manage the crisis while building the future. Failure could set the world on fire.


Mr. Kissinger served as secretary of state and national security adviser in the Nixon and Ford administrations.






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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby ramana » 10 Apr 2020 08:04

For a couple of days read and digest what HAK is saying. And then respond.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Reddy » 10 Apr 2020 08:31

Is Henry Kissinger Shakuni of the 20th century?

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby g.sarkar » 10 Apr 2020 10:25

https://www.news18.com/news/business/ja ... 71011.html
Japan Will Pay Its Firms to Leave China, Relocate Production as Part of Coronavirus Stimulus Package
As part of its economic stimulus package, Japan has earmarked $2.2 billion to help its manufacturers shift production out of China.
NEWS18.COM, APRIL 9, 2020.

Japan is willing to fund its companies to shift manufacturing operations out of China, Bloomberg has reported as the disruptions caused to production by the coronavirus pandemic has forced a rethink of supply chains between the major trading partners.
As part of its economic stimulus package, Japan has earmarked $2.2 billion to help its manufacturers shift production out of China. Of this amount, 220 billion yen ($2 billion)is for companies shifting production back to Japan and 23.5 billion yen for those seeking to move production to other countries.
China is Japan’s biggest trading partner under normal circumstances, but imports from China have slumped by almost half in February due to lockdowns to curb the spread of the virus hitting manufacturing and the supply chain.
Shinichi Seki, an economist at the Japan Research Institute, predicted that there would be a shift in the coming days as there already was renewed talk of Japanese firms reducing their reliance on China as a manufacturing base. “Having this in the budget will definitely provide an impetus,” he told Bloomberg.
......
Gautam

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby pgbhat » 10 Apr 2020 12:02

Coronavirus: India makes face masks mandatory for more than 300m people, punishable by up to six months in prison

Yet this also begs the question of how effective the measure will be from a public health perspective. If an N95 filter mask is the gold standard – a 10/10 – then a simple cloth covering rates “about 3/10 for effectiveness” said, Dr Giridhar R Babu, a professor of epidemiology at the Indian Institute of Public Health who has been advising the government.

Dr Babu nonetheless told The Independent that while social distancing might be sufficient in more developed countries, masks were an effective low-cost tool “in the Indian setting, given that we have urban slums and other completely overcrowded areas where physical distancing might be a problem”.

But Dr Babu warned that such messaging risked overlooking the other practices, such as regular hand washing and social distancing, needed to prevent infection. “I would say it is physical distancing, masks, plus personal hygiene [that is needed],” he said. “If we try to oversimplify and promote one thing out of proportion, by not understanding the science behind it, then we are at the risk of actually contributing to more infections.
“Anything that is coercive in nature might actually be counterproductive,” he said. “I worked in polio eradication for a long time, and whenever you use police to force people to be immunised, you create a lot of fear and stigma around it.

“If people don’t understand the importance of wearing a mask, and they just do it because the police tell them, it is not going to be much use. Because people will forget about physical distancing, focus only on wearing masks, but then only do it when police are around. The rest of the time, you’re freely spreading the infection.”

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby pankajs » 10 Apr 2020 15:03

https://twitter.com/WalterLohman/status ... 3802352641
Walter Lohman @WalterLohman

Such a great showing. Nine major small-government, pro-trade conservative groups all signed up to an FTA with Taiwan. Thank you all for your leadership!

https://www.dailysignal.com/2020/04/08/ ... th-taiwan/
Conservatives Call on Trump to Establish Free Trade Agreement With Taiwan
Will a WH invite to Dalai Lama follow soon?

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby anmol » 10 Apr 2020 17:43


ramana
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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby ramana » 11 Apr 2020 07:03

Reddy wrote:Is Henry Kissinger Shakuni of the 20th century?


Shukracharya

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby ramana » 11 Apr 2020 07:06

pgbhat That post does not belong here.
Ramana

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Lohit » 11 Apr 2020 07:34

I would highly encourage all to go through this document: https://www.slideshare.net/mobile/worki ... evelopment

Every word from pg 18 - 25 should be read.

It is literally a narration of the new global 'era' we have entered, from a 30k ft perspective. This was authored in 2010 by the Rockefeller foundation. I found a lot of it's high level scenario details to be on track despite being 10 years old and - therefore indicating that it is robust and can be used reliably for orientation.

My reading of key stated/unstated salient points in the lock step scenario which is of our interest,

1. Scenario is triggered by a pandemic

2. Predicts catastrophic, accelerated impact on retail, tourism and global trade

3. Predicts massive death tolls in Africa, Latin America and South East Asia (yet to see this)

4. China acts swiftly to apply mass quarantines and lockdowns to successfully execute containment; recovers far quicker than other countries

5. US fails on point 4 above miserably

6. Globally governments enforce stricter, authoritarian and more intrusive controls over citizens during pandemic

7. These controls and surveillances are continued post pandemic since governments say these are also effective against other risks - cross border terror, risk of pandemic recurrence as well as managing poverty, climate change and illegal migration challenges

8. This imposition of stricter controls will meet with initial enthusiasm amongst citizens looking for stability and security

9. Control will take many manifestations - from tracking biometric based IDs to national protection of industries deemed strategic

10. Post covid developed countries will make a slow recovery to pre covid economic activity levels - a depression is far likelier than a recession

11. In developing countries results will vary. In countries with able leadership (India is mentioned as one such country), recovery will be made albeit under a depression. Other countries with poor and incapable leadership will not and people there will suffer greatly, going to a permanently worse economic reality (Pak is a likely candidate here - we should think how we dont loose this opportunity).

12. Globally nationalism will become more and more chauvinistic.

13. Technology and trade diffusion from developed western nations to developing countries will decrease significantly (China will try and occupy this role/space - India nees to give China a run for its money).

14. Developing countries with large enough resource base will fill this technoligy gap due to western withdrawal internally, as best as they can (India comes to mind). Others will not be so lucky (say like B'desh).

15. Countries will become much more involved in economic activities (laissez faire rollback) and semi/fully nationalize key industries, setting priorities on what to develop and how much (main focus on national prerogatives). I believe mainy export driven economies such as SoKo, Japan in near-mid term and Oil economies such as Russia, KSA in the mid term will suffer.

16. Trade wars and protectionism will escalate over issues including IT, IP ownership etc

17. Regional groupings across Asia, Africa and Latin America will gain prominence (as global agencies such as UN, WHO, IMF are gradually abandoned)

18. As gora powers recede to their boundaries, China will go on a satellite hunting spree - to gain markets, supplychains and geopolitical influence. Using its strong position pre covid and faster recovery it will buy influence across Asia, Africa and Latin America.

19. China will expand its global military presence and place bases a la America.

20. These bases and influence will be the hotspots of flare ups in the new Cold war, much like Korea, Vietnam or Afghanistan were in the old one.

21. US and its allies will continue to support violent "democratic movements" in countries with heavy pro-Chinese, authoritative regimes.

22. Whether China can then continue to push back the west till we enter a clear pax Sina or whether such conflicts suck China dry to the point of collapse like USSR or whether these result in a catastrophic ww3 cant be determined with any degree of certainty.

23. Interestingly, the 'life in lock step' section almost completely foreshadows the rise of a Hindu nationalistic (for want of a better word), type of govt - which it did in 2014 (although this was pre covid of course). This may mean BJP only gets stronger in covid/post covid times.

What makes this report staggeringly important to me is that even though authored in 2010, the opening moves and early indicators (Chinese medical diplomacy to gain influence, early "recovery", US bungling, economic sectors impacted etc) seem to be quite spot on.

Even if not a roadmap, this can certainly serve as a great starting point or even preliminary blueprint of the next 10-15 years to come.

It is heartening to see Modiji already, whether instinctively or deliberately, starting to play the right counter moves.

Using HCQ diplomacy to draw allied powers closer - apart from the obvious US - Brazil, Ghana, Israel, Spain, Germany, Bahrain, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Maldives and Bangladesh, is a good start.

It is clear though that things in the next 10-30 years will get quite ugly before we even get a peep of stabler times. Still this opens up opportunities for Bharat and we all must do our part to make sure we help the country make the most of them.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Atmavik » 11 Apr 2020 08:25

China will be less the 'factory of the world' after coronavirus: Ian Bremmer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWrsni__2fA

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby SSridhar » 11 Apr 2020 08:48

Lohit, thanks for posting and also a nice summary. Stunning document.

History may or may not repeat. But, from a reading of Chinese history, the Chinese Empires (from Qin, Han, Sui, to Tang, Song etc) and dynasties fell apart whenever grand scale projects and expansion of empire were attempted.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Cain Marko » 11 Apr 2020 11:27

Don't know if this was posted before but it seems like the world has found a great enemy/Hitler to unite and fight against.. China. A common cause to rail, wail and finally jail the CCP.

https://youtu.be/Gdd7dtDaYmM

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Cain Marko » 11 Apr 2020 11:39

Atmavik wrote:China will be less the 'factory of the world' after coronavirus: Ian Bremmer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWrsni__2fA

Interesting. Here talks of a bifurcation of nations, either towards a Chinese center or a US one. The former having poorer countries and perhaps southern Europe and the latter being mainly, Western Europe.

I'm not so sure. Most countries from Europe to far East will probly go hard against China. India will likely go along simply because it wants to fill that void and it wouldn't hurt to cut the Chinese down a notch or two. It's only hope will be worthies like tsp, Iran and noko with Russia supporting until that pivotal moment when it turns tail.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby chola » 11 Apr 2020 12:36

Cain Marko wrote:
Atmavik wrote:China will be less the 'factory of the world' after coronavirus: Ian Bremmer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWrsni__2fA

Interesting. Here talks of a bifurcation of nations, either towards a Chinese center or a US one. The former having poorer countries and perhaps southern Europe and the latter being mainly, Western Europe.

I'm not so sure. Most countries from Europe to far East will probly go hard against China. India will likely go along simply because it wants to fill that void and it wouldn't hurt to cut the Chinese down a notch or two. It's only hope will be worthies like tsp, Iran and noko with Russia supporting until that pivotal moment when it turns tail.


If CCP stays in power then Cheen will inevitably weaken over time.

We are talking about a second Cold War that last 40-50 years.

If the West wins a regime change, the CCP falls and Cheen become democratic then Cheen can become a dominant competitor even if they stayed under the US system like Japan. Without the CCP, the attractions of that market and culture are too great for the rest of the Far East, Europe and even the US to ignore. Japan was too small to overtake the US in the 1980s and '90s. China will be Japan times 10.

Personally, I would rather have Cheen stay communist and grind things out with Unkil.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby vimal » 11 Apr 2020 12:41

chola wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:Interesting. Here talks of a bifurcation of nations, either towards a Chinese center or a US one. The former having poorer countries and perhaps southern Europe and the latter being mainly, Western Europe.


If CCP stays in power then Cheen will inevitably weaken over time.

We are talking about a second Cold War that last 40-50 years.

If the West wins a regime change, the CCP falls and Cheen become democratic then Cheen can become a dominant competitor even if they stayed under the US system like Japan. Without the CCP, the attractions of that market and culture are too great for the rest of the Far East, Europe and even the US to ignore. Japan was too small to overtake the US in the 1980s and '90s. China will be Japan times 10.

Personally, I would rather have Cheen stay communist and grind things out with Unkil.


What makes you think Cheen will be one nation after the collapse of CCP. CCP's collapse will be only be triggered by a massive shockwave that will break it apart. Taiwan, HK, Tibet, Xinjiang all will be free nations given the slightest of chance.
Last edited by vimal on 11 Apr 2020 13:03, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Lohit » 11 Apr 2020 12:55

SSridhar wrote:Lohit, thanks for posting and also a nice summary. Stunning document.

History may or may not repeat. But, from a reading of Chinese history, the Chinese Empires (from Qin, Han, Sui, to Tang, Song etc) and dynasties fell apart whenever grand scale projects and expansion of empire were attempted.


Thanks Sridhar sir.

On the theme of how excessive expansions led to a collapse and a churn of the dynasty - for each case there was a new dynasty or occasionally an external conqueror who replaced the incumbent.

In the current scenario, the only likely successor I can foresee - is a democratic movement(s) that overthrows the CCP.

We saw a POC of this in Hong Kong, however the world didnt extend the kind of support it should have because the stakes weren't high enough. They are now.

It is critical now that all anti-China powers, suppirt the Hong Kong movement with tan-man-dhan, it's the first beachhead that cannot be lost.

Taiwan's success needs to be magnified much more. CNN, BBC need to broadcast a primetime 2 hour documentary on how the 100k Chinese Covid deaths were whitewashed. Followed with every other major channel.

Again forget Xinjiang, even in mainland China - Sichuan, Hunan, Hubei have fledgling secessionist movements - the world has long ignored these at its own peril. Post Covid all such movements should not remain untouchable and should be given the Qaida treatment of the '80s.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby chola » 11 Apr 2020 13:06

vimal wrote:
chola wrote:
If CCP stays in power then Cheen will inevitably weaken over time.

We are talking about a second Cold War that last 40-50 years.

If the West wins a regime change, the CCP falls and Cheen become democratic then Cheen can become a dominant competitor even if they stayed under the US system like Japan. Without the CCP, the attractions of that market and culture are too great for the rest of the Far East, Europe and even the US to ignore. Japan was too small to overtake the US in the 1980s and '90s. China will be Japan times 10.

Personally, I would rather have Cheen stay communist and grind things out with Unkil.


What makes you think Cheen will be one nation after the collapse of CCP. CCP's collapse will be only be triggered by a massive shockwave that will break it apart. Taiwan, HK, Tibet, Xinjiang all will be free nations given the slightest if chance.


Taiwan is already a free nation. A democratic Cheen can actually pull it back into a chini federation or superstate. HK dislike the commies but if Cheen were free there would be no opposition. Tibet and Xinjiang becoming independent won't weaken a Han China that pulls back Taiwan. And both of them are landlocked and will still need to have trade and communications routed through Han Cheen.

Without CCP's censorship, their soft power will explode. They have the world's largest box office and even now their music and dramas are all over East and Southeast Asia.

Think about this: Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are greatest enablers of Cheen's rise. Without them, the PRC would be no better off than we are. They did this when Cheen was communist because of trade and cultural ties. You think this sentiment won't grow exponentially if Cheen were a nation more like they themselves are?

And all that without pushback from the West since they will be a fellow democracy?

A democratic big Cheen or 10 democratic little Cheens will still coalesce East Asia. It will be like having an EU on Bharat's east. Competition in the short term is between ideologies. Competition over the long term is between civilizations.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby SSridhar » 11 Apr 2020 13:45

Lohit wrote:In the current scenario, the only likely successor I can foresee - is a democratic movement(s) that overthrows the CCP.

Before it gets that far, the PSC (Politburo Standnding Committee) must take Xi to task for many things, including the megalomaniac BRI, making China slide down the Thucydides trap, making it a friendless country (not that it ever was known for friendliness) etc. This could be followed, if successful, by a period of uncertainty before democratic movements emerge stronger there, IMHO. In Chinese history, as could be true in most other places too, the dissolution of a powerful Emperror or Dynasty gave way to chaos. The inchoate movements in China would take time to coalesce and consolidate because unlike 1989, the current youth are drunk on CPC's nationalism that has a particular narrative of Chinese Dream.

The Son of the Heaven, which today is Xi, has committed the same mistakes almost every Emperor of every Dynasty did before him. Their efforts to 'balance earth & cosmos' as per Heaven's diktats always ended in failure. If major powers show enough determination after Corona is eventually taken care of, the current Son of the Heaven will face a very difficult task in the Politburo. The World after Corona must trim the Chinese wings significantly for the security and well being of the humanity. Otherwise, the 100-year prediction of Stephen Hawking might come true even earlier and for different reasons.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby nam » 11 Apr 2020 13:48

The thought that Chinese will gain substantially in the economic front, because it is the first to come out of the lockdown, is a myth.

No matter how much Chinis produce, you cannot sell if the markets are in lockdown.

Western countries will diversify their production bases, in to countries where their governments have leverage in some form. Some of the production will be brought in-house.

Chinese will still produce and probably export the products under fake orgin certificate. Vietnam may be a gainer. Chinese will simply produce in china and export through vietnam ports.

Now the issue is pricing and inflation. Bringing production closer, would mean increased cost. They cannot have open markets, as Chinese comanies will out price them out from the market.

Companies will still want cheaper production bases, however it will be diversified and political. People have realized the consequences of dropping all eggs in to the Commie basket.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby nam » 11 Apr 2020 13:52

Lohit wrote:In the current scenario, the only likely successor I can foresee - is a democratic movement(s) that overthrows the CCP.


There won't be any democratic rule in China, without substainial blood bath.

I have realized, CCP is able to rule, because authoritarian rule is what the Chinese want. Authoritarian, who can let them make money, take firm decision irrespective of the cost like we have seen in the Wuhan virus breakout.

The Chinese are seeing that the world is taking steps exactly as the CCP took to contain the virus. They are seeing that China is the first to come out and is getting it's production back and supplying the world. This can only increase admiration of CCP among the Chinese people.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Cain Marko » 11 Apr 2020 13:56

chola wrote:[If CCP stays in power then Cheen will inevitably weaken over time.

We are talking about a second Cold War that last 40-50 years.

If the West wins a regime change, the CCP falls and Cheen become democratic then Cheen can become a dominant competitor even if they stayed under the US system like Japan. Without the CCP, the attractions of that market and culture are too great for the rest of the Far East, Europe and even the US to ignore. Japan was too small to overtake the US in the 1980s and '90s. China will be Japan times 10.

Personally, I would rather have Cheen stay communist and grind things out with Unkil.

My concern is not cold war but hot war. Hopefully not. Even so, the fall of the CCP could be close. COVID 19 could be China's Chernobyl moment.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby chola » 11 Apr 2020 14:17

^^^ Hot war will go nuclear -- first tactically, then strategically -- when one side or the other looks like it is losing.

Only cold war is feasible between nuclear-armed superpowers. But you never know. Mankind hasn't proven itself rational all the time.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Lohit » 11 Apr 2020 14:34

SSridhar wrote: In Chinese history, as could be true in most other places too, the dissolution of a powerful Emperror or Dynasty gave way to chaos. The inchoate movements in China would take time to coalesce and consolidate because unlike 1989, the current youth are drunk on CPC's nationalism that has a particular narrative of Chinese Dream.



I think these are v imp points. Perhaps a version of a roadmap on how to crash the CCP could be,

1. China must face severe economic isolation, a gun must be put to the heads of the likes of Soros and other Western capitalist moguls to ensure they pull back and consequently China's exports are killed, its housing markets collapse, debt dries up and unemployment escalates.

2. Economic ruin will abruptly end all those endless CCP goodies and will hopefully make it's people especially youth suddenly open to protests and dissent. A rapid decline in living standards will see things boil over.

3. CCP will ofcourse double, triple down on such dissent forming a vicious cycle and it is here that democratic and secessionist movements should be fanned by anti-Chinese powers.

4. Externally BRI nations must be encouraged by major western powers to nationalize Chinese assets and expel Chinese.

5. A catastrophic economic collapse, rising violent disidence, armed rebellions in non-Han provinces, massive BRI write offs and a global media campaign to reveal the true face of CCP will hopefully thoroughly weaken Xi's hold on power.

6. Rival princelings, generals must then be empowered to challenge Xi. A bloodless CCP power struggle that replaces Xi would be good. A violent coup that shakes up each province and lasts a few months would be fantastic.

7. Finally a weak replacement should be helped to the throne. One on whom western powers have plenty of kompromat and is therefore more amenable to "democratize" China, allows autonomy to non-Han provinces and recognizes Taiwan and Honk Kong as independent states - a Chinese Gorbachev so to speak.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Lohit » 11 Apr 2020 14:49

nam wrote:
There won't be any democratic rule in China, without substainial blood bath.

They are seeing that China is the first to come out and is getting it's production back and supplying the world. This can only increase admiration of CCP among the Chinese people.


Fully agree.

I therefore think the first order of the day is to put the full force of western media in an effort to thoroughly investigate China's coverup and flood the electronic media and the internet of how this was done to discredit CCP and sow the first seeds of dissent.

A second wave, which looks likelier by the day and Chinese attempts to hide this must also be on global front pages to show the world how opening Wuhan was CCP's "mission accomplished" moment.

The coming war of perception while not decisive, will be first critical battle for both China as well as the West and India - who are currently on the back foot.

I also hope Chinese links to global left liberal media are thoroughly exposed for the international communist conspiracy that they are, to further boost disgust with the CCP state, globally.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby SSridhar » 11 Apr 2020 15:15

Xi's and China's problems are going to only mount. With the world economy shattered, there won't be any return from the huge investments made in any country under the BRI garb. Even without this, China had to agree to Venezuela to postpone repayments of USD 62 B it made there because oil prices crashed. Pakistan was floundering, Sri Lanka had to resort to other means, Malaysia cancelled Railway project. Now, Myanmar will not go ahead with Myitsone. Just a sample. China can try to get something else in return (like the 15000 Acres it got in lieu of Hambanatota), but what is it going to do with this real estate when the economies are going to take a long time to recover? Will it give more loans to these battered countries? Does it have cash? Will it throw precious good money now after the bad money? Remember China itself is deeply in the woods.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby syam » 11 Apr 2020 15:49

wishing something and enforcing it are two different things. there are very few enforcers at the world stage right now. east asia is pretty much under the chinis 'control'. if the virus was stopped before creeping outside obar network, ccp would have been collapsed. but then things went out of control. their people might be angry, but after looking at global situation, they won't be too hard on their party.

coming to the global reaction, europe is gone case even before the covid situation. the virus just proved it. so i expect zero action from their side. amerikis deep pockets are under chinis mercy. despite having the power to enforce something, their corrupt administration won't take any action. russia won't do anything. india won't do any thing on its own. so i expect not many big things to happen post covid apart from what's already happening.

what's happening now is very big though. we have to wait till the end of month to assess everything.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby anmol » 11 Apr 2020 17:21


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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Lohit » 11 Apr 2020 17:32

syam wrote:wishing something and enforcing it are two different things. there are very few enforcers at the world stage right now. east asia is pretty much under the chinis 'control'. if the virus was stopped before creeping outside obar network, ccp would have been collapsed. but then things went out of control. their people might be angry, but after looking at global situation, they won't be too hard on their party.

coming to the global reaction, europe is gone case even before the covid situation. the virus just proved it. so i expect zero action from their side. amerikis deep pockets are under chinis mercy. despite having the power to enforce something, their corrupt administration won't take any action. russia won't do anything. india won't do any thing on its own. so i expect not many big things to happen post covid apart from what's already happening.

what's happening now is very big though. we have to wait till the end of month to assess everything.


Syam care to explain the logic in statements like, virus creeping outside "obar" (wuhan?) would lead to CCP collapse? It already did mate - to all provinces by Jan 29.
Last edited by Lohit on 11 Apr 2020 17:35, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby anmol » 11 Apr 2020 17:34


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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby kit » 11 Apr 2020 17:39

I think the new trend would be deglobalisation with countries building up capabilities in their own countries. already an influential thinktank has marked the dependence of the west on China and India on pharma products and its intermediaries. There may not be whole sale move off from China, ecosystems that have been build up over more than decade cannot be easily replicated elsewhere overnight. India will need to move up its game if it indeed perceives a chance in some niche industries like consumer items and electronics, this is achievable and it has a very large market with the electronics industry targeting more than 50 billion USD imports every month coming from China. The West will be more preoccupied on their own recovery, so there is no "Marshall plan" similar to that post world war. , but this time around China will try to use its huge reserves of more than 10 Trillion to make its own Marshall plan for the entire world., so this is what that is going to come. , and favouring chinese companies and exports. India would be mostly focusing on its own recovery , there is a chance for cooperation with western countries but i wont bet on it. .............. Having said that, there is one thing , India has already won it, and this is its "dharma" or way of life., Hinduism is going to have a new life and a new recognition that it never had before. All the way from Yoga and Ayurveda , India will lead this new renaissance for the entire world. .. As sages predicted eons back., India will hold sway over peoples heart and minds while China will more likely make the material world.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Lisa » 11 Apr 2020 17:55

^ IMHO, I no longer believe that China has any Dollar reserves. They are now owned by GOTUS on lieu of damages owed.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby nam » 11 Apr 2020 18:03

anmol wrote:


If the virus came from the wet market, the Chinese would have forced it's closure all over the country.

Bats were not sold in wuhan market. And it is just so happens to have a Level4 lab in the place where a pandemic originates.

The most likely place of a natural virus infecting humans would have been where the SARS originated. Not in a city with level 4 bio lab.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby syam » 11 Apr 2020 19:07

Lohit wrote: "obar" (wuhan?)

it's one belt and road/one belt one road.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Lohit » 11 Apr 2020 19:35

syam wrote:
Lohit wrote: "obar" (wuhan?)

it's one belt and road/one belt one road.


Oh, okay. Again could you possibly explain how the spread to 'OBAR' countries - which it already has - will lead to CCP collapse?

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Lohit » 11 Apr 2020 19:39

Lisa wrote:^ IMHO, I no longer believe that China has any Dollar reserves. They are now owned by GOTUS on lieu of damages owed.


Is there any precedent of US declaring that they 'own' another countries foreign reserves?

If the US does so, will it also mean that such reserves held by other countries, could be impounded by the US, whenever they 'feel damaged'?

Dont see how the logic really.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby syam » 11 Apr 2020 19:44

Lohit wrote:Oh, okay. Again could you possibly explain how the spread to 'OBAR' countries - which it already has - will lead to CCP collapse?

imagine a scenario where only chinis and their allies got infected and having their countries under lock down. it will be bad on them and their leadership(ccp). now it became global calamity. very little to complain when everyone is coughing and having fever. it's basic human behaviour.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby chanakyaa » 11 Apr 2020 20:41

Lohit wrote:..Is there any precedent of US declaring that they 'own' another countries foreign reserves?

If the US does so, will it also mean that such reserves held by other countries, could be impounded by the US, whenever they 'feel damaged'?...

Yeah, It is call "money printing".

This has been going on since Bretton Wood died. Why impound, when you depreciate their reserves right in front of their eyes. Perhaps no impounding in a legal sense, but it is more effective (one could argue) than a direct or literal impounding, because countries can't do much about it except kadi ninda. When additional $4-$5 trillion (or euros for that matter) are created, countries whose national savings (i.e. "reserves") are in $$/Euros loose the value of their reserves because holders of $$/Euros are not proportionately compensated for new monies created.

British are wondering why didn't they think of such clever financial engineering. Expiration date of British empire could have been extended for few more centuries.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby vishvak » 11 Apr 2020 21:34

what's happening now is very big though. we have to wait till the end of month to assess everything.

You mean financially ?

Another news item
Wuhan virus reaches Amazon forest tribes
Read it all. How did it reach isolated tribes?!

Perhaps we needed this lockdown more than just apparent reasons.. what with people running and hiding.

Perhaps we need to track this long term and international level.

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Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

Postby Lohit » 11 Apr 2020 21:55

chanakyaa wrote:
This has been going on since Bretton Wood died.


I think you should def post that memo to IK Niazi - he would be delighted to know his $100 Bn debt is actually a figment of imagination since Mr. Bretton Wood is dead.


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