2020 US election results discussion

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 06 Nov 2020 05:01

Ramana garu,

to think of broad range of political, defence, economic, social impact s

Sorry saw your format after typing this!

I tried to get my head around it for the past few days. At a broad level :

1: Where things stand at the end of Trump era
The +ves : Outwardly pro-India stance, bonhomie with Namo, arms sales, dumped Pakistan, anti-china stance, Quad impetus
The -ves : Poor understanding of India, civilisational autism, no historic context, unwelcome offers to mediate, unhelpful stand on visas etc, no trade deal concluded (presumably NaMo & Co rejected the terms they proposed)

In a nutshell, Trump's navigation wrt to India IMO has been mostly opportunistic and impulse (thankfully not -ve) driven, seeing us as a faraway messy poor "filthy" non-threatening country with some marginal utility against China but buying arms that let him claim he has benefited American businesses. Trump's attitude does not seem to be backed by any well thought out strategy of engagement based on true understanding and genuine respect for a rising power. His officials like Pompeo and the "deep state" might be having a better, more informed and balanced view.

2. Where things stand for India at the start of Biden-Harris era:
The +ves : Kamala's India connection, view of India as non threatening, careful to not confront China directly in public, but very careful NOT to say anything pro-China which I think is more significant than it appears, Indian-American community's influence in their win, and lastly Tech industry's support to Dems which itself is strongly tied to India.
The -ves : Possible prejudice hangover against NaMo linking him to GJ riots etc, tendency to treat India & Pak as equals, left leaning wokeness may influence their policies.

So, not much I believe is pre-determined in the minds of Biden-Harris on how to engage with India and its current leadership. They will have their hands full undoing DT's mess, controlling the Pandemic, Obamacare etc. for the first year and are likely to continue India policy where Trump left off, based on seasoned career officials' advice to start with, until they find their feet. This makes for a great opportunity for a competent EAM like JS & leader like NaMo to engage early, with no reticence and full energy and purposefully shape the new administration's engagement with India. Heck, if we could build a manageable and beneficial relationship with someone so volatile like Trump, there is no reason to think we cannot do way better with B-H.

India-America relation's next chapter will be unprecedentedly positive, and India must step up and guide the US write it.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 06 Nov 2020 05:02

mappunni wrote:What is your take? Will it turn out to be a lame-duck Presidency?

If the Senate holds then, yes will be like going from frying pan to fire.

1. "Protests" will continue most nights and every weekend.
2. Matched by Trump rallies every now and then.
3. Covid may very well be around until 2022.
4. New administration will pay off another set of interest groups for services rendered.

saip · Post by **saip** » 06 Nov 2020 06:05

Trump is whining as usual. Trump is being cheated by everyone including in Georgia where the Republicans hold the sway. He wants the votes to be counted in Arizona and stop counting in PA. In 2016 he said there are 3 million illligal voters and appointed a commission too. It dissolved without finding even one. After listening to him, I am concerned about his mental status. May be it is right time to invoke 25th.

Jayram · Post by **Jayram** » 06 Nov 2020 06:35

vera_k wrote:
mappunni wrote:What is your take? Will it turn out to be a lame-duck Presidency?
If the Senate holds then, yes will be like going from frying pan to fire.

1. "Protests" will continue most nights and every weekend.
2. Matched by Trump rallies every now and then.
3. Covid may very well be around until 2022.
4. New administration will pay off another set of interest groups for services rendered.

The difference will be in tone. Gone will be those Climate Change deniers and quack appointments to important positions in the government. Gone also will the incitement from the bully pulpit and causing greater division in the country.
DJT has made illogical thinking ok in the new america. That will stop. America may even regain leadership in the world.
We will see. On an unrelated note I am loving the mental contortions the Fox news anchors right now, are going thru, trying to poke holes in the process that is same for both parties.

Primus · Post by **Primus** » 06 Nov 2020 07:00

I am no fan of Trump but anecdotally, in my backyard I found a lot more support for him among middle-class whites, esp women than in 2016 when most of them were for HC. The Hispanics (I have a huge population as my patients) are also in a large way pro Trump these days - I guess they prefer to have a job and food on the table than worry about the 1% possibility of COVID induced death.

I doubt KH will be any good for India. Desis seem to be enamored of her for no reason other than the ancestry which she herself has rejected long ago in favor of a more politically useful AA and Christian legacy. She strikes me as worse than HC as far as the relationship with India is concerned. HC had Huma Abedin, KH has the Jihadi Omar and Tlaib types lurking just around the corner. These two WILL take their pound of flesh for winning Michigan for the Dems.

Category: Political

Impact: Mostly negative for India. Lots of criticism of CAA, perhaps a reversal of the support on 370, overall a cooling off, with possible pro-Pak ideology resurfacing.

Mitigation:Hope our spine is strong enough, I believe Modi is quite capable of standing up to this kind of bullying.

Defence: Doubt any difference overall. Everybody loves to sell stuff and most of this decision making is usually a backdoor thing with the Generals and the MIC. The overt support against China maybe a key factor though, since it is quite likely the Dems will start kissing the Chinese behind again.

Mitigation: Make ourselves indispensable with promises to look elsewhere for key acquisitions a-la Rafale.

Economic: Probably one sector where the Dems may make a positive difference esp wrt trade tariffs and other barriers, they probably do not care about the local economy and upliftment of the blue-collar workers as much as the Republicans have done.

Social: This will be the biggest loss for India IMHO. Expect lots of 'intolerant Hindus' type of rhetoric and 'no freedom of religion' essays everywhere in the MSM. Social media will be full of the same.

Mitigation: Get tough with SM outlets in India, Impose stiff penalties on twitter and FB- about time we did that anyway. Have key people from the Dharmic side write counter-arguments - Malhotra seems to have morphed into something else entirely. Above all, Hindus in America need to wake up to the reality that the Dems have used them - much like the Labor Party did in UK. We need to support HAF and similar Dharmic groups much more. Get the political HINOs out of the system. This will take far longer than four years.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 06 Nov 2020 07:07

Philip wrote:It's the nature of the postal ballot,suddenly in unheard of numbers and with v.lax checks on the integrity of the ballot. Counting them last as well asks serious Qs. I too feel that in general Indo- US relations staying yhd course,but what course Biden would take it is the big Q.Will he continue to resist Commie China or will the Clinton Chin triads rule the roost?

We have to be v.careful in QUAD expectations. Our membership of the QUAD gives the alliance dominance of the IOR,but does not guarantee us of the same in the ICS. Moreover what happens if a Sino- Pak JV attacks India? How will the QUAD actively help us in return.

Philip and India-based jingos:

Don't judge US elections by Indian standards. Indian elections are designed for maximum participation. US elections have historically been designed to discourage participation, especially by poor people and non-whites. It means that in the US, there never was a culture of enthusiasm to "stuff" ballots, the cheating result was achieved by suppressing the other side (voter intimidation was, and maybe is, still a part of Indian electoral culture, but I am talking about using the law and policy decisions at local level to discourage the lower orders from voting.)

Soon after Trump got elected, there was a massive nationwide investigation into fraudulent voting, conducted by a close ally of Trump, one Kris Kobach. It found negligible amount of fraudulent votes in recent elections, something on the order of a few hundred out of tens of millions. The Trump side quietly stopped talking about it; you can bet that if there had been anything to it, they would be trumpeting it all over the place.

The postal ballot system is designed to make it easi(er) for people to vote, in some states. In other states, it is not so, there are onerous witness signature requirements etc. Like a lot of business and government transactions in the US (such as credit cards etc.), it too is conducted on the basis of a priori trust--they take your sworn, signed statement at face value-- coupled with massive punishment for violations. (Again, this is the opposite of how typically government business is conducted in India where you have to prove in a million ways a priori that you are not cheating). Government bureaucracy is government bureaucracy anywhere, but compared to India, the US one is designed to make the transactions run relatively smoothly and painlessly.

About the uptick in voter participation: Starting in 2008/2012, the times when Obama was elected, and after the 2013 Supreme Court judgment that removed the presumption of government-sponsored voter suppression from some of the most notoriously racist Southern States, there has been a tremendous grassroots movement to register poor and non-white people to vote, and to facilitate their voting by arranging transportation, arranging lawyers when authorities stand in the way of their voting, etc. That movement has paid dividends, and voter participation has gone up remarkably. Plus, Donald Trump has proved a to be a boon for voter participation, both by his acolytes as well as his haters. This is a reasonable, non-conspiracy explanation for the uptick.

I know that jingos are worried about the impact of a Biden Democratic party presidency on India. I am worried too. But that doesn't negate the genuine strong feelings that are there against (also for) Trump, which has driven more people to vote Just because you don't think Biden is good for India, it doesn't mean Trump is transformed into a godlike virtuous figure, to whom nothing negative (like losing a vote) can be allowed to happen, or any sentiment against Trump has to be treated as Paxstan treats blasphemy.

And it certainly doesn't mean that people here whose intellects are perfectly sound and respectable should run off and embrace some of the Paxi-level intellects that are propagating these fraud stories on social media. (there is probably some fraud in an election this size, but based on history and culture which I outlined above, its scale is probably negligible).

Your fine intellects, integrity, intellectual curiosity and thirst for knowledge, along with drive, are the only assets India has in this war. Don't go around recklessly besmirching them by mindlessly buying the idea propagated by some of the lowest-caliber inferior intellects out there (Guilani or Limbaugh or Alex Jones comes to mind), that any vote that goes against Trump can only be because the Dem-libtard-urban-naxal gang has cheated, done voodoo or whatever.

I believe India will survive any negatives of a Biden Presidency and emerge stronger, just as she did after the cryo engine embargo and the post-Pokhran sanctions. if India is really going to be put in such grave peril from a Biden-harris 'woke' Presidency, then there are deeper foundational flaws in India that should worry us. I think things for India will be rocky, at least for a while, under Biden, but India will prevail and keep moving ahead.

In the meantime, please hold on to your precious intellects and don't waste them on Trump, or Biden for that matter.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 06 Nov 2020 08:07

India will survive one way or another. We've survived near monthly bombing campaign of our cities by paki terrorists during the UPA/Obama era and we made it through. On the economy front the tariff on China will drop making it more lucrative for US companies to continue doing business with China , so any chances of gaining rebound manufacturing deals will be less. Pakistan will likely soon move out of FATF grey list, arms will be subsidized , and they will gain some new "development" aid which ofcourse will be channeled towards the military. ISI will hit once again to test Modi's resolve now that they know he is on his own both at home and outside. Against China, i expect any sharing of technology, satellite surveillance and other intelligence will reduce, so we will be on our own. Ofcourse there is the possibility of hearings and sanctions based on left propaganda on India's internal matters like 370, CAA, NRC etc. Already 6 democratic run cities have passed anti-CAA resolutions purely based on left-islamic lobbying, this will now reach the Whitehouse as well. The biggest winner is China , they have gained valuable time before they get into any direct or indirect military confrontation with US.

As for those saying US will be less divided because Biden is now the President can clearly see how divided the country is today. If anything the election has divided the nation even more and Joe Biden's presidency will remain under the shadow of doubts about its legitimacy . This evening ABC,NBC,CNN cut away while the President was speaking, not the first time it has happened. Twitter censored his first tweet on day after the election, Twitter/Facebook blocked NY Post articles on Hunter Biden. Ofcourse the daily propaganda against the Trump administration was for all to see. It is ironic that they created this monster islamophobe racist demagogue who actually ended up with more votes than in 2016 + more votes from the minorities !

Lastly, the business owners and citizens in major metropolitans can now breathe easy. From the day of the inauguration the weekend riots, arsons, looting, defund the police demands, Fk USA chants will all stop. See, the playbook is exactly the same but actors are different be it in India or in the US. All the agitation by various castes, farmers, environmentalists, students etc. abruptly stop as soon as BJP is out of power in that state, the same will happen in US too. As for Joe Biden's husband Joe Biden, i am glad he defeated George for the senate. /s

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 06 Nov 2020 08:10

Theres a mini wave of non white Trump supporters. Not enough to make him win but still its pretty big
He has actually lost white votes and gained an unprecedented number of non white votes this time
https://www.newsweek.com/trump-wins-hig ... 16-1545294

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 06 Nov 2020 08:15

Georgia seems practically even now, with Trump holding a lead <2,500.

Al Amak al Sirrah it is.

Sonugn · Post by **Sonugn** » 06 Nov 2020 09:36

Some names for Def sec & sec state

Michèle Flournoy, Susan Rice, Chris Coons, John Kerry

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 06 Nov 2020 09:51

The MI thing seems like an honest error, which was corrected within 20 minutes. Most of the other sites I looked at are behind paywalls, so I'm posting the couple I could find which are unrestricted:

https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/11/4/21 ... ection-map

https://leadstories.com/hoax-alert/2020 ... trump.html

Seems like these errors happen all the time during all US elections. On the face of it, I see no reason to doubt this, if anybody has something deeper than a tweet with a screenshot, please share (it seems the guy who originally posted the tweet also deleted it and admitted that it was an error). Of course, conspiracy theorists will never be satisfied - maybe the guy was bought off; honest error my ***; they got caught red-handed and are backtracking....

Accidentally adding a zero is one of the most common data errors there is. If there's any further substantial evidence, I'm open to changing my mind.

Y I Patel · Post by **Y I Patel** » 06 Nov 2020 10:01

Within the Trump presidency, Democrats were led by North Eastern and West Coast liberal elites. Biden and Harris will owe their victory to the African American dominated Democratic base in the Midwest, and very notably, the South. Georgia tipping for a Dem candidate is huge and historic, and marks the coming to power of the African American caucus. The politics and world view of that caucus are notably different from the liberal west coast NE Dems. So do not expect Harris to behave like a California senator anymore. Expect her to behave like an AfAm pol from Atlanta. Tie that with the severe underperformance of Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Shumer, and add that Biden will have to make nice with a Republican-controlled senate. This should indicate how President Biden will act, in matters domestic and international.

The first priorities will be Covid, getting the economy to recover (stimulus package), and healing the wounds of racial tensions. For some time, Biden will have no bandwidth to set a new course in external affairs, which means that foreign affairs will be on sort of autopilot. He may be friendlier to China, may want to renegotiate with Iran, but none of that will expressitself in new initiatives right away (also see above for reasons why it would be tempered). Given the domination of military on Indo-Pacific affiars, this means continuity in defense related policymaking - against China, and continuing to work with India. Relations with India, therefore, will continue to be strong but the thrust may be in other areas... possibly cooperation on climate change, which is a big Democrat priority.

The terror incidents in Europe and France's hardline reaction has been under the radar due to the elections, but will influence US stance going forward. Liberal media was deranged by Trump but will have to rediscover its sanity. Right now US is the global laughingstock, and rightly so. Hopefully this will translate to a less sanctimonious tone with global partners. Joe Biden, with a reputation of being a big mouth senator, has started to show a sober streak lately. All he has to do is to be more dignified than Trump, and he will be okay as an interlocutor in his public messaging.

Incidentally, Trump was no true friend of India. He viewed this as a transactional relationship for most of his term, and the new warmth in the relationship is entirely to the credit of China. That will continue with Biden, who is at least smart enough not to antagonize the one country capable and willing to stand up to China.

Bharadwaj · Post by **Bharadwaj** » 06 Nov 2020 10:02

We need to celebrate Biden's inauguration with demonstration of Surya from Dr Abdul Kalam Island to some test area in the pacific ocean. We can pass it off as our strengthening of the quad.

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 06 Nov 2020 10:09

This fraud conspiracy theory just does not hold water. The reason there is such a heavy bias towards Biden in the mail in ballots is because democrats stayed at home and voted - due to the pandemic. The pandemic deniers went and voted at the booth.
The biggest fraud being perpetuated is as people here have mentioned - the massive “borderless”/ one world/ Marxist brainwashing that a couple of generations have undergone in the US. Yes the media is an amplifier but the impact of education is extremely deep. It gave the edge over and above the demographics to shift the vote. There is a size able vote share the Democrat’s will get - sizeable chunk of minorities, regime changers who did not get their way during Trump years and the 70’s rebels. But a large portion of graduates from last 10-15 years are also in that kitty now.
The above are the biggest lessons for any civilizational state. Watch and modify the educational institutions. DO NOT GIVE UP CONTROL. The second is the media.
For me the immediate political and other implications are secondary. What is more critical is the lessons we can draw and how we remediate.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 06 Nov 2020 10:24

Y I Patel wrote:Within the Trump presidency, Democrats were led by North Eastern and West Coast liberal elites. Biden and Harris will owe their victory to the African American dominated Democratic base in the Midwest, and very notably, the South. Georgia tipping for a Dem candidate is huge and historic, and marks the coming to power of the African American caucus. The politics and world view of that caucus are notably different from the liberal west coast NE Dems. So do not expect Harris to behave like a California senator anymore. Expect her to behave like an AfAm pol from Atlanta. Tie that with the severe underperformance of Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Shumer, and add that Biden will have to make nice with a Republican-controlled senate. This should indicate how President Biden will act, in matters domestic and international.

Chowkidar: Mitch McConnell (India needs to control the US Senate - and actually has sufficient support)

Need to keep reminding Joe that he is a caretaker (until Nimrata holds court?)

Incidentally, Trump was no true friend of India. He viewed this as a transactional relationship for most of his term, and the new warmth in the relationship is entirely to the credit of China. That will continue with Biden, who is at least smart enough not to antagonize the one country capable and willing to stand up to China.

Indo-US relations has two dimensions: military and other

Joe will not (cannot) control the prior. Trump had no say in it either

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 06 Nov 2020 10:42

Y I Patel wrote:Within the Trump presidency, Democrats were led by North Eastern and West Coast liberal elites...

This is brilliant analysis, thanks very much to add to the quality of discussion.

Yes, the president will be hemmed in by lack of clear majority in house/senate, possibly republican controlled in both. Regarding China, the question I have is whether Biden is beholden to China and whether he will actually undo the pressure Trump put on China; even in a situation where he is distracted or relatively powerless. That is one thing that concerns me. Otherwise you are absolutely right - there are too many contradictions within the dem base which will start manifesting once the anti-Trump unifying cause is removed - coastal liberals have little to do with inner city blacks or latinos in southern US or new immigrants like desis/asians.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 06 Nov 2020 11:06

saip wrote:Trump is whining as usual. Trump is being cheated by everyone including in Georgia where the Republicans hold the sway. He wants the votes to be counted in Arizona and stop counting in PA. In 2016 he said there are 3 million illligal voters and appointed a commission too. It dissolved without finding even one. After listening to him, I am concerned about his mental status. May be it is right time to invoke 25th.

25th against Biden this early in the game? that will happen a year down the line when KD Harris is ready to take over. the quad will help, of course.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 06 Nov 2020 11:16

Y I Patel wrote:Within the Trump presidency, Democrats were led by North Eastern and West Coast liberal elites. Biden and Harris will owe their victory to the African American dominated Democratic base in the Midwest, and very notably, the South. Georgia tipping for a Dem candidate is huge and historic, and marks the coming to power of the African American caucus. The politics and world view of that caucus are notably different from the liberal west coast NE Dems. So do not expect Harris to behave like a California senator anymore. Expect her to behave like an AfAm pol from Atlanta. Tie that with the severe underperformance of Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Shumer, and add that Biden will have to make nice with a Republican-controlled senate. This should indicate how President Biden will act, in matters domestic and international.

This is great Patelji. So much to learn from BR, I just did not think in those terms.
Gautam

Raja · Post by **Raja** » 06 Nov 2020 11:31

Wow KLNMurthy, I couldn't have written it any better. That is exactly how I feel. Kudos.

Any change brings with it threats and opportunities. I am afraid that if we only look at threats then that is all we will find. There are plenty of opportunities for India with the upcoming change. We should exploit them while remaining mindful of the potential threats.

KLNMurthy wrote:
Philip and India-based jingos:

Don't judge US elections by Indian standards. Indian elections are designed for maximum participation. US elections have historically been designed to discourage participation, especially by poor people and non-whites. It means that in the US, there never was a culture of enthusiasm to "stuff" ballots, the cheating result was achieved by suppressing the other side (voter intimidation was, and maybe is, still a part of Indian electoral culture, but I am talking about using the law and policy decisions at local level to discourage the lower orders from voting.)

Soon after Trump got elected, there was a massive nationwide investigation into fraudulent voting, conducted by a close ally of Trump, one Kris Kobach. It found negligible amount of fraudulent votes in recent elections, something on the order of a few hundred out of tens of millions. The Trump side quietly stopped talking about it; you can bet that if there had been anything to it, they would be trumpeting it all over the place.

The postal ballot system is designed to make it easi(er) for people to vote, in some states. In other states, it is not so, there are onerous witness signature requirements etc. Like a lot of business and government transactions in the US (such as credit cards etc.), it too is conducted on the basis of a priori trust--they take your sworn, signed statement at face value-- coupled with massive punishment for violations. (Again, this is the opposite of how typically government business is conducted in India where you have to prove in a million ways a priori that you are not cheating). Government bureaucracy is government bureaucracy anywhere, but compared to India, the US one is designed to make the transactions run relatively smoothly and painlessly.

About the uptick in voter participation: Starting in 2008/2012, the times when Obama was elected, and after the 2013 Supreme Court judgment that removed the presumption of government-sponsored voter suppression from some of the most notoriously racist Southern States, there has been a tremendous grassroots movement to register poor and non-white people to vote, and to facilitate their voting by arranging transportation, arranging lawyers when authorities stand in the way of their voting, etc. That movement has paid dividends, and voter participation has gone up remarkably. Plus, Donald Trump has proved a to be a boon for voter participation, both by his acolytes as well as his haters. This is a reasonable, non-conspiracy explanation for the uptick.

I know that jingos are worried about the impact of a Biden Democratic party presidency on India. I am worried too. But that doesn't negate the genuine strong feelings that are there against (also for) Trump, which has driven more people to vote Just because you don't think Biden is good for India, it doesn't mean Trump is transformed into a godlike virtuous figure, to whom nothing negative (like losing a vote) can be allowed to happen, or any sentiment against Trump has to be treated as Paxstan treats blasphemy.

And it certainly doesn't mean that people here whose intellects are perfectly sound and respectable should run off and embrace some of the Paxi-level intellects that are propagating these fraud stories on social media. (there is probably some fraud in an election this size, but based on history and culture which I outlined above, its scale is probably negligible).

Your fine intellects, integrity, intellectual curiosity and thirst for knowledge, along with drive, are the only assets India has in this war. Don't go around recklessly besmirching them by mindlessly buying the idea propagated by some of the lowest-caliber inferior intellects out there (Guilani or Limbaugh or Alex Jones comes to mind), that any vote that goes against Trump can only be because the Dem-libtard-urban-naxal gang has cheated, done voodoo or whatever.

I believe India will survive any negatives of a Biden Presidency and emerge stronger, just as she did after the cryo engine embargo and the post-Pokhran sanctions. if India is really going to be put in such grave peril from a Biden-harris 'woke' Presidency, then there are deeper foundational flaws in India that should worry us. I think things for India will be rocky, at least for a while, under Biden, but India will prevail and keep moving ahead.

In the meantime, please hold on to your precious intellects and don't waste them on Trump, or Biden for that matter.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 06 Nov 2020 11:31

China may be engaged in open conflict with India right now but US deep state will know that this is a bigger threat to US in the long run. If they do a U-turn now and release the pressure on China they would only be emboldening and arming a future threat. The military aid to India and posture against China may not change because of this. However CAA or Indian plans to change the status of POK etc may come under US pressure now. For example, a repeat of Balakot strike will be more difficult now.

V_Raman · Post by **V_Raman** » 06 Nov 2020 11:38

I dont think India will get any pressure to not do a Balakot if there is a terrorist attack - those days are loonnngg gone. World is not that kind of a place anymore. I will expect pressure on human rights/religious freedom etc. to appease their vote bank. That is the best they can do. I will not expect any drastic change w.r.t Pak either - resumption of aid etc. - too drastic a change in the trajectory IMO.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 06 Nov 2020 11:42

This is also warning to the Democrats, already many Indians and Hispanics have been considering the Republicans, if the Democrats pander to Antifa, Radical Islamics like the Pakis, Erdogan and still go business as usual with China. Then they will also start lossing Big time.

The reason Trump won 2016 and has done reasonably well in 2020 is these factors. If Biden, KH take to Paki, China pandering and loony left Pandering, unlike what many in forum think. Various lobbies in US including the Jewish lobby would erode the Democrats, the reason Sanders and Clinton lobby moved out and the most Centerist Democrat had to contest.

sajo · Post by **sajo** » 06 Nov 2020 11:46

Gurus, will Trump's fate make any future US president, especially a career politician, be wary of a confrontation with China? Maybe the American's underestimate China's hold on the American Deep State. Trump had nothing to to squander away in terms of political capital gained over the years, hence could be a bit more direct with the CCP. Xitler must be grinning from ear to ear , and the tencenters would be busy sowing the message that the Chinese hold over the American establishment brought down the Trump regime. Will set the template for other political leaders too, Modiji particularly.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 06 Nov 2020 12:00

V_Raman wrote:I dont think India will get any pressure to not do a Balakot if there is a terrorist attack - those days are loonnngg gone. World is not that kind of a place anymore. I will expect pressure on human rights/religious freedom etc. to appease their vote bank. That is the best they can do. I will not expect any drastic change w.r.t Pak either - resumption of aid etc. - too drastic a change in the trajectory IMO.

Agree, except on "human rights".

* Donald won MORE votes than Hillary in 2016!! Think about that
* The US Senate is still solidly Republican
* Dems lost seats (so far) in the Congress

So, outside of Joe "winning" the WH, nothing really changes.

Everything goes through Mitch McConnell.

IMHO, it is more important for India to decide on her role in the Quad, than worry about Joe. As far as India is concerned Jow is lame.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 06 Nov 2020 12:05

Couple of points:

1. Biden-KH will be on pins and needles, and Republicans will make their life hell.
Set aside the presidential election, and look at the congressional results. Democrats are aghast by their senate and house results.
They were expecting to flip senate and expanding the house majority. Nothing of that happened. Senate will be dominated by the republicans, and the democratic house majority has shrunk. One one hand, moderate democrats are blaming the extreme left wing for this debacle. On the other hand, see which republicans have won - they are the extreme right. This will make the republicans more reluctant to negotiate with the democrats; forget about the next round of Covid stimulus relief.

2. Out of the total 51 states (DC included), the northern 40 states (the "union") gave Biden a lead of 7.76 million votes over DT. On the other hand, the 11 southern states (the "confederacy") has given DT a lead of a solid 4.20 million votes over Biden. Net result: - Biden is ahead nationwide by a margin of 3.56 million votes. The US hasn't seen this much polarization between north and south since the American Civil War. In spite of pandemic, BLM, race riots, DT / GOP has had a very strong show when polls after polls showed them trailing by about 10 points. The reality is that the difference is about 2 points only.

3. I doubt Biden-KH will have any opportunity to create mischief against India. Given the combative mood of the republicans, the Biden administration will have a very tough time getting any bill passed. On top of it, a more conservative SC will not give the dems any respite.

V_Raman · Post by **V_Raman** » 06 Nov 2020 12:20

NRaoji - I am shocked at how close this election is and the # of votes Trump got!

IMO - if trump had talked about wearing masks the right way - he would have won!

Any senate runoff in Jan will be the one to watch.

greatde · Post by **greatde** » 06 Nov 2020 12:26

Its a case of “could be”. So why is Trump so immune here? Trump’s base of evangelicals could cause issues and pressure for India. Trump is transactional, so if other countries offer good deal, he would align with that. See his comments on Kashmir. Nobody is a true, and India has to work with unholy alliances in today’s time..

And the upwards started with Obama administration, so the old days and people can still work with India.

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 06 Nov 2020 12:32

Can start identifying the front runners for the three key posts:
1.Secretary of state
2.Defence secretary
3.NSA
Senator Kerry as someone had suggested, is he the not the same one who authored Kerry-Luger bill and very Paki-pasand. Condy Rice and HIllary were no better.
The only reason I am asking is if we know potential guys we could anticipate the possible course of actions vis-à-vis India/China/Pak

nvishal · Post by **nvishal** » 06 Nov 2020 12:42

Pakistan is a very old US ally. It's purpose was against soviets and now against Russia. As a reward, the Pakistanis come under the US nuclear umbrella and are protected against any existential threat from india.

Under the above carefully. Whether dem or rep, it doesn't change the fundamental american policy. The Americans think that they can provoke india to fight China while it maintains the Pakistanis on the side.

New Delhi is well aware of the dual balancing game of the US. It also aware that the han are opportunistic.

Three things are clear:

1) The Americans are unreliable

2) The soviets backed off when the Americans revealed a secret document signed between US and pak in the 50s that guaranteed US intervention in case India poses an existential threat. Indira had to cancel the invasion plan of west Pakistan. Russia will walk off the poker game.

3) The Chinese cannot project global ambitions while india threat looms over Tibet and Xinjiang. It is a strategic imperative for them to act against india.

Now you understand how non-allignment became multi-allignment.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 06 Nov 2020 13:00

Y I Patel wrote:Within the Trump presidency, Democrats were led by North Eastern and West Coast liberal elites. Biden and Harris will owe their victory to the African American dominated Democratic base in the Midwest, and very notably, the South. Georgia tipping for a Dem candidate is huge and historic, and marks the coming to power of the African American caucus. The politics and world view of that caucus are notably different from the liberal west coast NE Dems. So do not expect Harris to behave like a California senator anymore. Expect her to behave like an AfAm pol from Atlanta. Tie that with the severe underperformance of Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Shumer, and add that Biden will have to make nice with a Republican-controlled senate. This should indicate how President Biden will act, in matters domestic and international.

The first priorities will be Covid, getting the economy to recover (stimulus package), and healing the wounds of racial tensions. For some time, Biden will have no bandwidth to set a new course in external affairs, which means that foreign affairs will be on sort of autopilot. He may be friendlier to China, may want to renegotiate with Iran, but none of that will expressitself in new initiatives right away (also see above for reasons why it would be tempered). Given the domination of military on Indo-Pacific affiars, this means continuity in defense related policymaking - against China, and continuing to work with India. Relations with India, therefore, will continue to be strong but the thrust may be in other areas... possibly cooperation on climate change, which is a big Democrat priority.

The terror incidents in Europe and France's hardline reaction has been under the radar due to the elections, but will influence US stance going forward. Liberal media was deranged by Trump but will have to rediscover its sanity. Right now US is the global laughingstock, and rightly so. Hopefully this will translate to a less sanctimonious tone with global partners. Joe Biden, with a reputation of being a big mouth senator, has started to show a sober streak lately. All he has to do is to be more dignified than Trump, and he will be okay as an interlocutor in his public messaging.

Incidentally, Trump was no true friend of India. He viewed this as a transactional relationship for most of his term, and the new warmth in the relationship is entirely to the credit of China. That will continue with Biden, who is at least smart enough not to antagonize the one country capable and willing to stand up to China.

India's concerns are not so much in the military sphere where we will either sink or swim on our own to a largish extent.

Support may be forthcoming to us in the form of tangibles like weapons and ammo shipped at enormous prices, access to intelligence but nothing more than that while the reverse expectations from India that the goras have always sought to institutionalize has been boots on the ground and frontline support from Indian troops.

these western powers have been watching India and her extremely capable armies very carefully since before WWI and this army has only grown more capable, consistently dependable and infinitely more accomplished since those expeditionary days.

the greed to tap into our huge and productive arable land holdings as well as our vast potential for dynamic and energetic human resources has always been part of the BIF plans. There is a global mafia that seeks the unfettered influence and the control to mould these human resources to another ideology more suited to their ends.

India's mostly unwarranted and often needless support of huge contributions of troops to the UN "peace keeping" forces is a form of social engineering that has been quietly encouraged over the years by many countries which have always considered themselves as our social and economic betters.

today Indians see nothing wrong in their army "enforcing" order under the "UN flag". If we are not careful, some stupid govt of the day may well be persuaded, cornered or bribed to permit the use of the Indian army to fight under "some other flag".

we have seen such sly trial balloons being floated numerous times by low level ameriki officials in the recent past with respect to afghanistan. The last big failed try was under bush who wanted vajpayee to commit Indian troops to fight under US command in eyraq.

The present concerns are more about gratuitous interference in our internal affairs and demands for greater "freedoms" for this, that and the other, a self serving, arrogant, imprudent and reckless series of demands made while conveniently forgetting that we are a millennia old civilization with our own valid and historical concerns which we have to address on our own to ensure our survival and civilizational continuity.

a transactional relationship is atleast predictable and trump did not unleash the hordes of loonies and nutters on us. The same may not be true of this administration.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 06 Nov 2020 13:39

KLN Murthy garu, Y I Patel garu, thank you for your excellent posts !

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 06 Nov 2020 14:12

greatde · Post by **greatde** » 06 Nov 2020 14:45

Surely, irrespective of which government, US needs status quo to prevail, and remain of the discrepancy/gap within various countries. Overall, India has to be restrained for them.

There might be a bigger fish now, so India is more useful to them currently. Yet , our clash is inevitable as long as India is aspiration and growing. When they are talking much on Ughurs, its just a matter of time when they go for Kashmir or any other internal issues.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 06 Nov 2020 15:22

greatde wrote:Surely, irrespective of which government, US needs status quo to prevail, and remain of the discrepancy/gap within various countries. Overall, India has to be restrained for them.

There might be a bigger fish now, so India is more useful to them currently. Yet , our clash is inevitable as long as India is aspiration and growing. When they are talking much on Ughurs, its just a matter of time when they go for Kashmir or any other internal issues.

their need to take down Modi and bring back the mafia famiglia is overwhelming. so the various arms of the US body politic will multitask

they will need to push divisive issues in India and create social tensions to destabilize and reorder the social fabric to suit their agenda.

so, while biden plays nice to keep from rocking the boat, what do you think that the others are going to be doing, certainly not playing nice as so many here seem to imagine.

the QUAD is being run by the US military and by default, the legions of the religious always hunt in close formation with the military.

that's precisely how korea went down the drain so fast and now those overactive koreans are in India thumping bibles and pushing the hallelujah story, trying to wow the natives.

how exactly does India tie in with korea as far as these religitards go and the answer is that they are all ameriki funded, and they are all in India on long term visas.

In spite of cheeni products being actively discouraged in India, reports say that one cheeni phone company shipped 8.8 million units in Q3 2020 against 7.4 million units in Q3 2019, registering a 19 per cent growth in market share. Cheeni phone companies hold more than 70 per cent of the market share in Q3 2020.

and yet those slant eyed mofos are sitting on our borders and threatening us and we keep buying their products. That's called multitasking.

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 06 Nov 2020 16:25

V_Raman wrote:IMO - if trump had talked about wearing masks the right way - he would have won!

Agree. That and walking public through all the capabilities that chinese have acquired over the years in all aspects of life and how all dots are connected.

Category: Defence
Strategic slowdowns of china specific weapons. Reasons could range from bureaucracy to budget fights to rivalry between decision makers. The brainwashed bureaucracy that only thinks in terms of Russia as the enemy is still alive.

Looks like the wall street is betting on business being as usual with respect to china and that says it all.

Raja · Post by **Raja** » 06 Nov 2020 20:11

The final plot will almost surely look significantly different and closer to the polls. Most states still have partial results including the ones that have been called for.

[quote="anmol"][/quote]

saip · Post by **saip** » 06 Nov 2020 20:41

Trump 304 vs Hillary 227 and Trump Called it a landslide victory.
This time around it looks like Biden 306, Trump 232. A landslide defeat.

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 06 Nov 2020 20:48

Cyrano wrote:Ramana garu,
to think of broad range of political, defence, economic, social impact s
Sorry saw your format after typing this!

I tried to get my head around it for the past few days. At a broad level :

1: Where things stand at the end of Trump era
The +ves : Outwardly pro-India stance, bonhomie with Namo, arms sales, dumped Pakistan, anti-china stance, Quad impetus
The -ves : Poor understanding of India, civilisational autism, no historic context, unwelcome offers to mediate, unhelpful stand on visas etc, no trade deal concluded (presumably NaMo & Co rejected the terms they proposed)

In a nutshell, Trump's navigation wrt to India IMO has been mostly opportunistic and impulse (thankfully not -ve) driven, seeing us as a faraway messy poor "filthy" non-threatening country with some marginal utility against China but buying arms that let him claim he has benefited American businesses. Trump's attitude does not seem to be backed by any well thought out strategy of engagement based on true understanding and genuine respect for a rising power. His officials like Pompeo and the "deep state" might be having a better, more informed and balanced view.

2. Where things stand for India at the start of Biden-Harris era:
The +ves : Kamala's India connection, view of India as non threatening, careful to not confront China directly in public, but very careful NOT to say anything pro-China which I think is more significant than it appears, Indian-American community's influence in their win, and lastly Tech industry's support to Dems which itself is strongly tied to India.
The -ves : Possible prejudice hangover against NaMo linking him to GJ riots etc, tendency to treat India & Pak as equals, left leaning wokeness may influence their policies.

So, not much I believe is pre-determined in the minds of Biden-Harris on how to engage with India and its current leadership. They will have their hands full undoing DT's mess, controlling the Pandemic, Obamacare etc. for the first year and are likely to continue India policy where Trump left off, based on seasoned career officials' advice to start with, until they find their feet. This makes for a great opportunity for a competent EAM like JS & leader like NaMo to engage early, with no reticence and full energy and purposefully shape the new administration's engagement with India. Heck, if we could build a manageable and beneficial relationship with someone so volatile like Trump, there is no reason to think we cannot do way better with B-H.

India-America relation's next chapter will be unprecedentedly positive, and India must step up and guide the US write it.

saip · Post by **saip** » 06 Nov 2020 20:48

Meanwhile daily covid cases
11/4/20 USA 108352, India 50465
11/5/20 USA 118319, India 47622
Trump done in by China Virus.
People who do not believe in Science die by it.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 06 Nov 2020 22:23

saip wrote:Meanwhile daily covid cases
11/4/20 USA 108352, India 50465
11/5/20 USA 118319, India 47622
Trump done in by China Virus.
People who do not believe in Science die by it.

This is such a simplistic reasoning. Assuming that the polls were largely fair, there are lot of variables and underlying issues. The most important point to take home from these elections is that a significant percentage of American population if not outright majority is now leftist/liberal.

US was always our civilizational enemy but now this aspect will get a new meaning. I fully expect more LGBTQ, feminist and other woke type issues to hog limelight here. The woke narrative will be pushed incessantly. They are already teaching tranny matters using vulgar images to primary school students in select private schools. The leftist and NGO crowd will go full retard with media in cahoots. Major social media platforms are already leftist in both orientation and ownership.