2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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mmasand
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby mmasand » 27 Jan 2021 02:48

vijayk wrote:Guys! All Modi has to do is to set up a judicial commission to investigate role of twitter/FB to instigate for promoting Paki/foreign/terrorist elements and come up with recommendations for criminal liability of management. Half the problems will be solved. When I see these guys, I remember the story of snake and sage. Snake stops biting on the advice of sage and gets beaten every day with sticks and rocks. When she complains to the sage, he says I told you not to bite but did not ask you to hiss.
There has to be an iron clad law that makes the management liable for aiding violence for both FB/Twitter.


Forget foreign tech companies, they can't even stop the rhetoric on the street. They've made a joke of governance, and some are still defending the govt by living in their fallacy of 4D-5D, masterstroke, expose, etc. After Shaheen Bagh, DP media liaison made several media appearances, and had subsequent pressers. So far, we've only heard from the JC of DP, with his tone likening it to mischief in the by-lanes of purani Dilli.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Ambar » 27 Jan 2021 02:53

nam wrote:Hope GoI doesn't spend time things like UCC or population control bills. It should purely concentrate on economy and rolling out a better life for the people. The TV driven drama in Delhi is an unnecessary distraction.

There are other ways to get UCC by challenging individual laws through the courts.


+ a million. I've been repeating the same thing for the past 10 pages that they need to work on "clever governance" instead of these lightning rod bills with little to no change materially.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby SandeepA » 27 Jan 2021 02:58

Genuinely disappointed with Amit Shah. This was not supposed to happen with the best HM we have had. How did we end up here?

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby darshan » 27 Jan 2021 03:01

There's some truth to it that BJP should focus on creating leaders from bottom to top to take care of things. Enablers. Especially, if at the top they know that there's no grand plan as far as passing bills. They are better off finding more of Parrikar, Jaitley, etc. And working with others to figure out how to get Hindus to utilize benefits that they are already entitled to, helping Hindus file FIRs for their rights, educate their own cadre about the civilization, etc.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Kamal_raj » 27 Jan 2021 03:06

SandeepA wrote:Genuinely disappointed with Amit Shah. This was not supposed to happen with the best HM we have had. How did we end up here?


Just imagine for a moment new headlines 40 dead killed by police.

The impact of this internally and externally.

Did the government know that the protestors will hoist their flag in the red fort? off course they knew!
The government allowed this I think. There was no possible option in dealing with such crowds. I agree that had this been any other community there would have been 100+ dead today.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby nam » 27 Jan 2021 03:22

GoI let the drama play out. It will now refuse to stop the law and the jokers will go the Supreme court.

SC will ask them who asked you to go on a rampage, when the Delhi police gave the permission for a peaceful protest. If the objective was to hoist a flag in Red fort, why was the farm law used as excuse?

SC & GoI both gave them lot of leeway, yet the lot refused to budge. Now there is no victimhood to hide. Nothing for GoI to than just push the matter to SC and arrest the leaders and trouble makers.

Now let the "farmers" and their media supporter convince the SC.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Srutayus » 27 Jan 2021 04:01

Genuinely disappointed with Amit Shah. This was not supposed to happen with the best HM we have had. How did we end up here?


What we are seeing is a concerted backlash against the first stirrings of self-expression by the Indic community. An attempt is being made to browbeat us into submission using violence and mob power and to subvert our democracy. We must be willing to counter-mobilize in overwhelming force.

Also, remember that what the organizers really wanted was a dozen or more dead "protestors". That would have been used to fan a lot more violence.
Last edited by Srutayus on 27 Jan 2021 04:09, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby V_Raman » 27 Jan 2021 04:03

Nah. Punjab is truly screwed with these farm reforms - they have nowhere to hide - genuine loss of livelihood/revenue for a good section of sikh population. There is no simple alternative for them. Lets not over generalize this. It is hard to swallow - will need to give them time.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vimal » 27 Jan 2021 04:19

V_Raman wrote:Nah. Punjab is truly screwed with these farm reforms - they have nowhere to hide - genuine loss of livelihood/revenue for a good section of sikh population. There is no simple alternative for them. Lets not over generalize this. It is hard to swallow - will need to give them time.


There is an economic side but there is also a cultural side which is the perceived superiority complex of some folks w.r.t SRDEs.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Bart S » 27 Jan 2021 04:32

V_Raman wrote:Nah. Punjab is truly screwed with these farm reforms - they have nowhere to hide - genuine loss of livelihood/revenue for a good section of sikh population. There is no simple alternative for them. Lets not over generalize this. It is hard to swallow - will need to give them time.


How so? Nothing much changes on the ground for them, they still get their unfair share of the central govt MSP funds, still retain their mandis and local state legislation to hobble private players.

Punjab is well and truly screwed if the farm reforms are not fully applied and implemented in the state, with desertification looming.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Bart S » 27 Jan 2021 04:34

astal wrote:There are several tactics and strategies to deal with these protests and the associated violence.
In the short term, refuse to talk any further. All avenues for discussions are over. Every reasonable opportunity was provided.

Do a media blitz in the rest of India with savvy Ministers and trusted leaders. Lay down the benefits of the bill again and again. Tout success stories. Spend political capital if needed.
In Punjab, look for sympathetic outlets such as Gurudwaras and make an articulate and strong case. Get your MP's out. They should be prepared to lose some popularity for genuine reforms.

Go back to the Supreme Court and make a more convincing presentation instead of the half hearted effort done the first time around. Parliament and the GOI are sovereign when it comes to making laws. If the government insists, there is really nothing the court can do. After 10 years of discussions and an ordinance to the effect, lack of consultations is hardly an excuse for staying implementation of the laws.

Now in the medium and longer term
This protest exposed one major flaw in Indian laws. Inheritance by a non citizen allows non Indians to own large amounts of agricultural land. This enables them to make an agricultural income in India and not pay taxes, indefinitely. Much of this income is off the books due to hawala and also enables tax avoidance in the country were the non citizen has migrated too.
Here are some specific suggestions:
    When a foreign citizen inherits land, it must be sold to an Indian Citizen within 5 years.
    Inheritance tax for non Indian citizens
    Agricultural income tax if the land if held by non Indian citizens.
    Land owned by non citizens should also not get free electricity, fertilizer or any other subsidy.

The benefits of no income tax on farming income should only accrue to Indian citizens.

Make another set of laws to define an escalation ladder for protests. Once police barriers are attempted to be broken or any violence ensues, an automatic response should be put into effect, that dismantles the protest and disperses protestors.
Any time a protest disrupts traffic, causes loss of livelihood or results in destruction of property, it is no longer a peaceful protest and the police and administration must have laws covering their actions to diffuse, disperse and arrest instigators. Peaceful, non disruptive protest is ok.

Simply discussing and notifying these laws will set the cat among the pigeons.

The Modi government thus far has signaled lack of conviction in this matter. It must do the opposite.


+100

Central govt should also ensure that MSP dole be capped, and redistributed equitably across states based on their share of output for the crops in question. Right now UP and MP produce more than Punjab, with far fewer wealthy farmers but still get step-motherly treatment from the central govt.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sanjaykumar » 27 Jan 2021 04:55

But that would be an affront to the Sikh panth.

It is the duty of Hindus to eat with a gun to their heads.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby V_Raman » 27 Jan 2021 05:09

Crop diversification will take years and the msp pie will have to be spread out now after this awareness as there is no restriction on inter state movement of rice/wheat

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vijayk » 27 Jan 2021 05:11

V_Raman wrote:Nah. Punjab is truly screwed with these farm reforms - they have nowhere to hide - genuine loss of livelihood/revenue for a good section of sikh population. There is no simple alternative for them. Lets not over generalize this. It is hard to swallow - will need to give them time.


If it is true, they could have approached Modi and ask for assistance to get over the crisis. They will certainly be accomodated even now. But scums of AAP/CON ITALIANs and COMMIE/BIF filth decided to go to a war on India

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Tanaji » 27 Jan 2021 05:26

The problem with the approach of letting this play out as a Chanakian tactic is that it changes nothing. Lets assume the tactic of exposing them as hooligans and not farmers has been successful both in the eyes of the public as well as the judiciary. The former don’t matter as there are no elections on the horizon and Bengal is not affected.

If the courts give overwhelming judgements in favour of government (unlikely) it still changes nothing as the farmers broker have time and again shown they do not care for the Supreme Court. They also do not care for the impression they give to rest of India as the mentality is that of Delhi fateh karenge and showing their martial prowess to the cowardly baniyas. Has any of the leaders apologised for what happened or expressed contrition? Give it a few days, given the propensity of khalistanis to cook up conspiracy theories, it will be just a couple of days after which they will lay the violence at the door of Hindu fundamentalists. Rundtv and other channels along with Yuvraj will only be too happy to support this narrative. All in all, this line of thinking solves nothing as you still have a few thousand sitting in your borders dreaming up the next protest or riot.

The Parliament gherao will be timed for the budget session for maximum effect. There is no way the government will be able to stop thousands from marching to it with tractors, in fact, I am reasonably certain the Supreme court itself will allow saying its peaceful protest. All assurances will be given by farmers broker Gang and end result will be same as today except they will enter the house of Parliament and this time maybe try lynching a BJP MP or two.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Tanaji » 27 Jan 2021 05:31

As far as solutions go, what astalji said earlier are worthwhile suggestions. I, for once in my lifetime actually liked Mamta Bano’s suggestion: have multiple capitals. This completely breaks the Lutyen Gang stranglehold and reduces the disproportionate importance that a single city state like Delhi has. We could distribute ministries to various parts of India. In a connected age of ours there is no reason why this cannot happen.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sanjaykumar » 27 Jan 2021 05:33

To get away from Sikhs? :rotfl:

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Ambar » 27 Jan 2021 05:34

The only "brahmastra" the government holds are the purse strings, put all sorts of red tapes on MSP procurement from PJ going forward. The immediate concern is securing Delhi and protecting the parliament, the budget session can wait. Your average Delhite ofcourse will never blame AAP for any of this and will firmly put the blame on Modi and BJP, and vote for AAP yet again in the next election all for toxic muddy "free water" and free electricity.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Tanaji » 27 Jan 2021 05:37

sanjaykumar wrote:To get away from Sikhs? :rotfl:


No. To reduce the importance of Delhi as a city state. It is neither in the geographical centre of India, neither does it have great weather and it is too close to the border. What are the redeeming qualities that make it a suitable capital in this day and age? Why can’t we have multiple ones?

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby KLNMurthy » 27 Jan 2021 05:51

ArjunPandit wrote:Am the only one who finds this quite similar to US capital hill protests/insurrection?


You have me for company.

It is as nearly identical as it can get, given the differences between the US and India.

US capitol attackers are largely spiritual descendants of slaveowning Confederates who can't stand to see formerly-subjugated "people of color" voting and coming to power.

Red Fort attackers are largely leftovers of enslavers of India--Ashraf Muslims, Whites, and their Hindu collaborators, who can't stand to see formerly subjugated Shudra and ex-untouchable Hindus like Modi and his supporters voting and coming to power.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sanjaykumar » 27 Jan 2021 05:52

^^There are numerous leverages. Do you think the GoI will ever take Sikhs off the CAA. The chief minister of Panjab will surely be fine with that, as he opposes the act.

Why not start with this action that does not affect any Indian citizen? We know it’ll never be done.

The gameplan may be to let these mollycoddled farmers discredit themselves, cause hardship to 15 million people of Delhi. A few months of summer heat and the autumn of breathing in the smoke from the farms and things should be about ready for civil action. Which may be quite uncivil.

The AAP will save the good people of the megalopolis no doubt. Heheheheh.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby m_saini » 27 Jan 2021 05:53

You get multiple capitals and the "protestors" will gherao multiple cities. Why multiply the problem? Besides how would multiple capitals even work? Are we going to have RS in one city and LS half the country over?

Mamta bibi's suggestions belong in the dustbin.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sanjaykumar » 27 Jan 2021 05:54

I don’t think Modi is shudra. But even if were, it would be fine with me. So much the better actually.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby KLNMurthy » 27 Jan 2021 05:56

kit wrote:
ArjunPandit wrote:Am the only one who finds this quite similar to US capital hill protests/insurrection?


No I would say the US admin will find the modi govt as kindred spirits..both having suffered the same, no one can blame India now for suppression/oppression/freedom rights etc. The farmers walked right into a trap


Sorry, but it doesn't work like that.

The US government will, at best, leave India alone, and at worst, keep up a drumbeat of Hindu "majoritarianism" (a word that is sacred in US but dirty in India) that is out to destroy democracy and oppress Muslims, Christians and Dalits.

There is zero chance that US government, or the most vocal and wealthy segment of US-Indians who has been outraged at the Capitol attack, is going feel any sense of solidarity with the Indian government.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ArjunPandit » 27 Jan 2021 06:01

Ambar wrote:I have <100 followers on Twitter, i haven't tweeted or retweeted in months but yet Twitter blocked my account yesterday and now wants my phone number to unblock it. We, including Govt of India , are fighting this battle with both of our hands tied. Sorry to say but China is indeed smarter then everyone else, they saw the dangers of western social media platforms, OTT platforms, IT cloud infrastructure providers more than a decade ago, and we rolled out red carpet for them as usual and we are now getting steam rolled.

I have had this multiple times....i even gave no.s ...hardly posted anything ..rarely abusive..but the repeated blocking of accounts..is amazing..

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ArjunPandit » 27 Jan 2021 06:05

KLNMurthy wrote:
ArjunPandit wrote:Am the only one who finds this quite similar to US capital hill protests/insurrection?

Red Fort attackers are largely leftovers of enslavers of India--Ashraf Muslims, Whites, and their Hindu collaborators, who can't stand to see formerly subjugated Shudra and ex-untouchable Hindus like Modi and his supporters voting and coming to power.

remember red fort area is full of "vishesh sampraday"..even if they were not at forefront..they can always provide support..even provide water and contribute to the crowd...i even saw some in the videos at ITO area (again its not unusual to find as these areas have very high % of these folks)
thinking from a tactical perspective..the small roads in a hostile area gives these folks easy hiding places..and these are areas where police would find it hard to chase/search people...

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sanjaykumar » 27 Jan 2021 06:09

The celebrations are reminiscent of previous celebrations of heroic acts.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1354163453179568128

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ArjunPandit » 27 Jan 2021 06:13

vimal wrote:
V_Raman wrote:Nah. Punjab is truly screwed with these farm reforms - they have nowhere to hide - genuine loss of livelihood/revenue for a good section of sikh population. There is no simple alternative for them. Lets not over generalize this. It is hard to swallow - will need to give them time.


There is an economic side but there is also a cultural side which is the perceived superiority complex of some folks w.r.t SRDEs.

> punjab has a huge manufacturing, services and transport base..yes there will be difficulties in short term..but please dont do the mistake to write off the obituaries of land whose sons have thrived everywhere they went, even after they lost everything..yes ..
> they need to be given time...i get your sentiment..but beyond these hooligans there is a huge crowd in that area that is as honest as rest of us, works hard ..
> due to our momentary differences lets not alienate people who have been with us for long...lets not repeat the mistakes of 80s...
> i prefer following the KPS gill approach separate the scum from rest and go after their entire support chain..and break their back..both literally and actually...those scums are not the people who can be argued..those have to dealt the way they were treated back then...just need to keep our distinctions clear...
> as much as i dislike what happened yesterday, i still support the inaction by govt..shishupal was forgiven 100 times..lets not make a martyrs of these morons. they will hang themselves..

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sanjaykumar » 27 Jan 2021 06:17

There is no question GoI did the right thing. It is self-evident. Will the farmers declare victory and go or will they choose to further alienate the general Indian population. They have inflicted a propaganda defeat on themselves, the contours of which will become clear to them in due time.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Ambar » 27 Jan 2021 06:20

ArjunPandit wrote:
KLNMurthy wrote:Red Fort attackers are largely leftovers of enslavers of India--Ashraf Muslims, Whites, and their Hindu collaborators, who can't stand to see formerly subjugated Shudra and ex-untouchable Hindus like Modi and his supporters voting and coming to power.

remember red fort area is full of "vishesh sampraday"..even if they were not at forefront..they can always provide support..even provide water and contribute to the crowd...i even saw some in the videos at ITO area (again its not unusual to find as these areas have very high % of these folks)
thinking from a tactical perspective..the small roads in a hostile area gives these folks easy hiding places..and these are areas where police would find it hard to chase/search people...


They are just returning the favor. Langars were set up by sikhs for shaheenbaghis during the anti-CAA protests, so it shouldnt come as a surprise that they are helping the khalistanis now to burn Delhi. Ironically, had it been the "peaceful community" that had rolled tractors to the red fort and hoisted a green flag, i think the reaction from the govt and the police would have been ruthless.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 27 Jan 2021 06:22

sanjaykumar wrote:^^There are numerous leverages. Do you think the GoI will ever take Sikhs off the CAA. The chief minister of Panjab will surely be fine with that, as he opposes the act.

Why not start with this action that does not affect any Indian citizen? We know it’ll never be done.

The gameplan may be to let these mollycoddled farmers discredit themselves, cause hardship to 15 million people of Delhi. A few months of summer heat and the autumn of breathing in the smoke from the farms and things should be about ready for civil action. Which may be quite uncivil.

The AAP will save the good people of the megalopolis no doubt. Heheheheh.


it's only those who are nurturing the separatist tendencies who have opposed the CAA.

In India, both mecca and rome are actively supporting such movements

In the case of sikhs, maybe many don't understand or don't care, so the "leadership" has taken a stand.

A great many sikhs are actually for the CAA, as would be natural
Last edited by chetak on 27 Jan 2021 06:28, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Ambar » 27 Jan 2021 06:27

sanjaykumar wrote:There is no question GoI did the right thing. It is self-evident. Will the farmers declare victory and go or will they choose to further alienate the general Indian population. They have inflicted a propaganda defeat on themselves, the contours of which will become clear to them in due time.


The genie is out of the bottle, neither Amrinder nor CPI nor AAP nor congress can coax them back. The rally in Bangalore today had groups from various farmer unions, CITU, Dalit organizations and ofcourse INC workers. They will attempt to repeat the same thing in every city across the country but i doubt if they'll find the sort of collaboration of various BIF and logistical ease they can manage in Delhi.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sanjaykumar » 27 Jan 2021 06:27

We are concerned here with leverages not what is in the people's good hearts.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby KLNMurthy » 27 Jan 2021 06:40

sanjaykumar wrote:I don’t think Modi is shudra. But even if were, it would be fine with me. So much the better actually.


https://thewire.in/politics/narendra-mo ... ward-caste
Those saying Modi’s backward class credentials are ‘fake’ base their allegations on the fact that his caste was not originally included in the list of SEdBCs, and was added later. According to his critics, this inclusion was ordered by Modi himself, using his influence as chief minister.

In the entire controversy, the name of his caste is not mentioned, which is “Ghanchi”. Ghanchi is the Gujarati name for the caste known as ‘Teli’ in Hindi, and by different names in other states and languages. It is linked to the traditional occupation of oil-pressing and vending.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teli

Despite of the later attempts to claim higher status Teli were initially considered as Shudra and were thought to be lower in status. According to Anand Yang, the Telis worked with beast of burden in the oil pressers and for the purpose of obtaining the desired results from the animals, they were often blinded. This made them ritually impure but later many of them as Yang notes took up the occupation of trading and branched off as Bania in order to conceal their impure origin.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sanjaykumar » 27 Jan 2021 06:45

My sincere congratulations to the people of India. I did not know that.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ArjunPandit » 27 Jan 2021 06:45

darshan wrote:One uses eigen function to analyze the system. Hopefully, the system is being analyzed for UCC.

someone said it so..this govt has proven this time and again..if RJB, art 370/35a removal is any way, it kills the crab in gradually boiling water..there is

another thing distraction..in between all these noises, economic downturn... highway construction had been in full swing,

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/hig ... 80167.html

also, UCC, land reforms and other things need to be brought in..would be worthwhile to watch this space

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Kakkaji » 27 Jan 2021 06:48

Whatever Punjab "farmers' issues" there are due to the new farm laws can be sorted out by way of some special incentives/ disincentives such as funds for income support, incentives for crop diversification, disincentives for monocropping etc, all designed in a way that the Punjab farmers' income does not go down. Central budget for that will be a small price to pay vs the current chaos.

The Khalistan sentiment is a different matter altogether. No easy solutions there.

There are no prominent Sikh leaders in the BJP that can fight that sentiment on the ground. The Akali Dal has also become a family dynasty party. No Longowals or Barnalas there now to act as mediators between the Center and the general Sikh community.

No tough Jat Sikh cops like KPS Gill around either. The way KPS Gill and his team members were hounded years later will not encourage any Jat Sikhs to step forward to take on the Khalistanis.

Ajit Doval is quite familiar with the politics of Khalistan. The last time around he played a big role during Operation Black Thunder. He is 76 years old now. Don't know if there are any worthy successors around.

This one is going to be a tough fight.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ArjunPandit » 27 Jan 2021 06:50


half an hour watch..long story short this guy puts up a strong rhetoric with facts for
1. strong against against the farmers
2. at the same time exhorts/criticizes the govt

while I may disagree with him on some areas, but this is necessary to call out a spade a spade

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vimal » 27 Jan 2021 07:11

^^ Nice bhideo.

But even in this day and age there are secular yindoos who will berate Modi at the drop of hat. Such graphic violence acts as a shock therapy for such people who are pretending to be asleep. Remember Delhi votes for Khujlee again and again while getting burned again and again.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ArjunPandit » 27 Jan 2021 07:16

well given the freebies in delhi khujli is likely to come again..he may still get good no. of seats due to
1. freebies to the large voter base..there is a large section ..some of them even are ITvity folks too..yes i find it hard to believe..
2. kejru might get a free pass due to law and order under mota bhai..DP is under Kejru..he's pro farmers with his ex salim aka YoYo..


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