It is possible you are right. There is so much uncertainty here. However, the following facts seem obvious even to me (and I admit I am not usually well versed with local politics even though I am from Haryana).
1. Tikait was pro-farm bill initially.
2. He then turned completely against it - no reason other than that he was bought off by some agencies - that much is self-evident.
3. His group was the one that had plenty of Sikhs in it and these were the people who managed to reach Red Fort. The ones agitating at Tikri border and Singhu border did not get that far. Even on the day after the incidents, he was surrounded by Sikhs on the stage.
4. He again changed his tune suddenly, calling it an anti-Jaat event. He was obviously crying at the time.
The FIR was lodged against him and many others on the evening of the 26th itself, the turnaround in his behavior came about the next evening. At the time there was a large police presence there as shown on various live channels. There was at the same time a lot of Sikh presence on stage and in the field.
What is the source of your information?
Edited: For correction.
We can do a google search and see that both Singhu and Tikri borders seem a lot further than UP Gate. UP Gate( Tikait group ) is the closest to Akshar Dham. Akshar Dham is where one of the three rallies was supposed to turn around and not enter restricted areas of Delhi but they chose to break the barriers and move ahead. The tikri border folks also chose to break barriers. These are the one's that reached Red Fort. The Singhu border rally stuck to their routes. This is what the PB groups announced that none of their groups had defied the restrictions.
Tikait group has Sikhs because western U.P. and Uttarakhand has a lot of Sikhs into agriculture. In past decades Sikhs did migrate to these regions for larger lot sizes and cheaper land prices. But that is not the complete story. On the eve of republic day, when moderate leaders were asking that the next day rally be kept peaceful, a violent group from PB led by the following captured the stage.
Deep Sidhu from KSMC - He has never been allowed on stage by the larger protest of 40 or so organizations. Very ambitious and former lawyer.
Lakha Sidana, a former gangster turned social worker
BKU ( Ekta Ugrahan ): Extreme leftist group - farm organization from Punjab. This is the one that put up posters asking for Navlakha etc be freed in the first few days.
They captured the stage to announce that they would defy the conditions of the rally and start at 7-8 AM and not exclude outer ring road. This is exactly what they did the next morning. The first two are in hiding ( first one's to be booked under UAPA ). Tikait chose to brazen it out vs going into hiding and so had to create this anti-Jat theory.
For the Gujjar MLA part ( sorry its in Hindi ):
There was no need for this and the agitation would have significantly weakened if not for this hero(giri).
You can also see the permitted rally routes at below link: