2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

[SRajesh]

^^Nachiketji
This Zoowala, is he Indian passport holder or from some Emancipated Country !!
If so and on PIO, can we not just cancel his PIO stay and kick him out
Just like that Son/Daughter of Tavleen S

[arshyam]

This is where it gets interesting. There is no speaker, and only the deputy speaker can decide on this. However, Shinde by virtue of being SS's floor leader in the assembly has officially expressed "no confidence" in the deputy speaker's right to hold office, which was followed by a letter from 2 independent MLAs stating that the deputy speaker cannot adjudicate on disqualification since he does not have the confidence of the house. On top of this is the stay by the HC till Jul 11, which hasn't stopped a floor test per se.

In effect, it's a stalemate now and the floor test might have to go ahead with the current strength of the house as is.

Interesting days ahead.

Yes it is a complicated situation that is going to end in a legal battle. I am not aware of the rules but if the Dy Speaker is facing a no-confidence motion based on which the disqualification of the MLA's has been stayed, can he then preside on the floor test itself? The SC did not stop the floor test explicitly but if one is carried out in these circumstances and the MVA loses they will approach the SC again with a new petition to declare it invalid since the matter of the disqualification of MLA's was still being adjudicated.

True. I think they'll need to elect a speaker first, which itself would indicate the confidence (or lack of) the house has in the govt. If an opposition candidate becomes a speaker, the govt is considered a minority govt, a floor test is a mere formality after that.

[Sachin]

Eknath Shinde is saying they will travel to Mumbai for the floor test. UT camp will try to get the 16 MLA's they were targeting disqualified before the test. If Raut's goons try to stop the MLA's from reaching Mantralaya there might be chaos on the streets.

The BJP has prior experience in organizing these kinds of mass air-lifts and delivering MLAs right at the legislative assembly. In Karnataka, rebel MLAs who jumped ship to BJP was first grouped in resorts and then brought into Bangalore's HAL airport by two special flights. The Bangalore police then cleared the routes and brought the MLAs straight to Vidhan Soudha as a convoy with armed escort. I still remember some of the MLAs running into the assembly floors (in this area police are not allowed), dodging 'secular' leaders like D.K Shivakumar waiting to pounce on them . But since NCP is handling the home ministry; do not know if such a scheme will work out in Mumbai. The bolded part is a risk, and perhaps central police forces may be asked to provide the bandobust.

True. I think they'll need to elect a speaker first, which itself would indicate the confidence (or lack of) the house has in the govt.

Can NCP, Shiv Sena (Thakaray group) cobble up a majority to elect a new speaker? Or will that attempt itself fail?

[S_Madhukar]

Hopefully after Udaipur tragedy people wisen up to Sufis are nice people etc kinds of mythology; they are all sects can be easily radicalised. Historically Indian government has been very eager at banning stuff, when are they going to ask ISPs to ban such online radicalism. Also the local mosque needs to be cleaned up French style. Won’t happen with Khangress on power

[nachiket]

^^Nachiketji
This Zoowala, is he Indian passport holder or from some Emancipated Country !!

I have no idea sirji.

[SRajesh]

Can India bring law like the French to monitor the Friday sermons or incitement to riot/arson/killings!!
As Temple rituals and aarthi or pravachans are open easily recordable and I can safely say no call for arson or riots
And I think ditto for Sunday sermons!

[nachiket]

True. I think they'll need to elect a speaker first, which itself would indicate the confidence (or lack of) the house has in the govt. If an opposition candidate becomes a speaker, the govt is considered a minority govt, a floor test is a mere formality after that.

It seems AM Singhvi who is representing UT's Shiv Sena in court is going to ask for an urgent hearing in the SC this morning itself. So it now depends on whether the SC stays the test or not.

Can NCP, Shiv Sena (Thakaray group) cobble up a majority to elect a new speaker? Or will that attempt itself fail?

They would only have the numbers if the MLA's in Shinde camp do not or cannot vote for whatever reason or some of them vote for UT side instead. But I don't think they will even attempt a speaker election right now. It may not even be possible since the governor has convened the assembly session specifically for the floor test not a speaker election. They are banking on the SC to stop the floor test.

[Sachin]

Can India bring law like the French to monitor the Friday sermons or incitement to riot/arson/killings!!

Law can be made, but implementation is the key. From what I have noticed, in many mosques the usual people who go there will be able to easily identify any new comers/strangers; so clandestine recordings would be tricky. Even if Muslim officials go in mufti the others can still keep them away or hound them out. A more practical solution would be to; identify 1 or 2 people who are tagged as the people responsible for happenings inside the mosques (a mosque committee if that is what is required) who have to provide recordings of the sermons and provide it to the law enforcement agencies. They can also be encouraged to place CCTV cameras/audio recorders for their own safety.

In Bangalore a Kashmiri militant was found hiding in a mosque; with the local Muslim community providing him money and even SIM cards. These people jolly well knew that they can weasel out if any thing goes wrong. Some said they did not know his identity, and some said he used to ply goods auto rickshaws to Airports so security clearance should have been there etc. etc. That should change.

[arshyam]

But I don't think they will even attempt a speaker election right now. It may not even be possible since the governor has convened the assembly session specifically for the floor test not a speaker election. They are banking on the SC to stop the floor test.

Then what you said earlier about the floor test under a "no-confidence" speaker might hold true - the dy. speaker could disqualify these rebel MLAs just before the floor test.. even if challenged in the courts, the floor test itself would come under question and the govt would survive pending the legal wrangling. But in such a scenario, why is the MVA even petitioning against the floor test? So there is something else in the rules that's not obvious to me.

[nachiket]

Then what you said earlier about the floor test under a "no-confidence" speaker might hold true - the dy. speaker could disqualify these rebel MLAs just before the floor test..

No I was wrong. the SC has given the MLA’s time to reply to the disqualification notices. So that can’t happen. MVA’s best and perhaps only chance is if the SC stays the floor test today. Then they have ample time to break off people from Shinde camp and get them back. Without a stay they will be in trouble.

[arshyam]

Can India bring law like the French to monitor the Friday sermons or incitement to riot/arson/killings!!

Law can be made, but implementation is the key. From what I have noticed, in many mosques the usual people who go there will be able to easily identify any new comers/strangers; so clandestine recordings would be tricky. Even if Muslim officials go in mufti the others can still keep them away or hound them out. A more practical solution would be to; identify 1 or 2 people who are tagged as the people responsible for happenings inside the mosques (a mosque committee if that is what is required) who have to provide recordings of the sermons and provide it to the law enforcement agencies. They can also be encouraged to place CCTV cameras/audio recorders for their own safety.

Why not pass a law requiring all places of worship to record all sermons, irrespective of religion and make it available to law enforcement? Or even live stream them? These are public meetings anyway. Hindu temples don't have the sermon concept, and even the few lectures we hold in temple premises are usually spiritual, so we won't be impacted by such a law. Keeping it religion neutral would stop the usual rona-dhona sickulars with no ammo.

[arshyam]

Then what you said earlier about the floor test under a "no-confidence" speaker might hold true - the dy. speaker could disqualify these rebel MLAs just before the floor test..

No I was wrong. the SC has given the MLA’s time to reply to the disqualification notices. So that can’t happen. MVA’s best and perhaps only chance is if the SC stays the floor test today. Then they have ample time to break off people from Shinde camp and get them back. Without a stay they will be in trouble.

Then it is indeed difficult for the MVA - I don't think the SC may stay the floor test since it is per constitutional procedure (LOP reaching out to Governor). Let's see.

[Cyrano]

Why all places of worship? We should feel no shame or stigma to clearly say Muslim places of worship at this point. No more equal equal business anymore. Even for the sake of form or politeness. They don't deserve it and we will be fooled and killed once again if we continue on this line.

[Shaktimaan]

I feel that the Supreme Court will have to stay tomorrow’s No Confidence vote in Maharashtra.

The question of the No Confidence motion against the Dy Speaker will have to be sorted out first.

This is because the No confidence vote is also carried out in the Assembly, presided over by the Speaker. Since the Assembly does not have a Speaker at the moment, this role will be fulfilled by the Dy Speaker.

So now you have a situation where on one hand the Shinde group does not have confidence in the Dy Speaker but on the other hand they would like the same Dy Speaker to preside over the vote of no confidence in the Assembly.

This situation is not tenable in my opinion but note that I am not a lawyer.

[nachiket]

Why all places of worship? We should feel no shame or stigma to clearly say Muslim places of worship at this point. No more equal equal business anymore. Even for the sake of form or politeness. They don't deserve it and we will be fooled and killed once again if we continue on this line.

It will be constitutionally impossible to make such a law targeting a specific religion.

[Larry Walker]

I feel that the Supreme Court will have to stay tomorrow’s No Confidence vote in Maharashtra.

The question of the No Confidence motion against the Dy Speaker will have to be sorted out first.

This is because the No confidence vote is also carried out in the Assembly, presided over by the Speaker. Since the Assembly does not have a Speaker at the moment, this role will be fulfilled by the Dy Speaker.

So now you have a situation where on one hand the Shinde group does not have confidence in the Dy Speaker but on the other hand they would like the same Dy Speaker to preside over the vote of no confidence in the Assembly.

This situation is not tenable in my opinion but note that I am not a lawyer.

Based on my limited understanding - no confidence against Dy Speaker only stops Dy Sp from further disqualifying members but he can still preside on the vote of no-confidence against the government because as per SC directive no-confidence vote has to be done by physical voting and not show of hands or voice vote.

Also I will be interested in understanding MVA argument in court - they can challenge Guv's floor test notice but then circumstances in which Guv has called for floor test are amply clear to SC in form of letter of 38 rebel MLA's and Dy Sp's action of disqualifying MLA's. So I am not sure how MVA can argue against Guv's call for floor test being unconstitutional or un-warranted.

[chetak]

https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 220_1.html

Uddhav Thackeray goes to SC after ordered to prove majority tomorrow

Maharashtra Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari has convened a special session of state assembly on Thursday, June 30, as he has asked Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray to prove his majority

June 29, 2022 11:04 IST

[Haresh]

high-quality Khukhri. It adorns a shelf in my bedroom now, just in case

With all due respect, it's no use just sitting on your shelf !!
You need to learn to use it, learn how to handle it, not just in the open but in an enclosed space.

Go onto YouTube, plenty of videos.
Get some friends together and make wooden knives, with blunt round tips and practice fighting with them. No holds barred. Only thing out of bounds is the face.

[SRajesh]

Another noob pooch:
Given the tension in Rajasthan, how will this affect BJP's prospects??
will there be polarisation??
Col Rajyavardhan Rathore can he be billed as CM anointed??
Will Vasundharaji accept??

[rsingh]

high-quality Khukhri. It adorns a shelf in my bedroom now, just in case

With all due respect, it's no use just sitting on your shelf !!
You need to learn to use it, learn how to handle it, not just in the open but in an enclosed space.

Go onto YouTube, plenty of videos.
Get some friends together and make wooden knives, with blunt round tips and practice fighting with them. No holds barred. Only thing out of bounds is the face.

Guys please let's not overdo. Get back to the thread.

[S_Madhukar]

MVA SC delay tactics is exactly the problem that has led to judicial overreach in this country! I mean your 10 wickets are down there is one ball left 10 runs to get and you haggle over some no ball.

[Ambar]

Another noob pooch:
Given the tension in Rajasthan, how will this affect BJP's prospects??
will there be polarisation??
Col Rajyavardhan Rathore can he be billed as CM anointed??
Will Vasundharaji accept??

Forget about hitting the streets in protests, more than 24 hrs after the heinous, barbaric act and Vasundhara Raje is yet to even issue a statement condemning the murder of kanhaiya lal, it just goes to tell how much she cares about the state or her people.

[chetak]

[hnair]

high-quality Khukhri. It adorns a shelf in my bedroom now, just in case

With all due respect, it's no use just sitting on your shelf !!
You need to learn to use it, learn how to handle it, not just in the open but in an enclosed space.

Go onto YouTube, plenty of videos.
Get some friends together and make wooden knives, with blunt round tips and practice fighting with them. No holds barred. Only thing out of bounds is the face.

Hmmm…. This sort of discussion are not for this forum and my post is purely from a self-defense perspective, not revenge or retribution which should be left to the government.

Let me explain. This approach you guys are discussing is not going to work except in times of heightened tension and that too only at home as home defense.

Why?
- You can’t carry a lethal weapon forever and leads to huge mistakes due to paranoia
- such attacks are executed during time and choosing of the perp, when least expected and after they figured out your guard is down.

But…. Escaping from a surprise attack and live to tell the tale so you can bring legal retribution is another thing.

So here is my suggestion for figuring out what to do:
1) wear safety-goggles and ask your friend or friends to hold a whiteboard marker like a knife and slash at you with serious intent to mark your body, neck etc
2) try to defend vigorously and with serious intent to survive for a fixed time interval, which could be extended slowly
3) try it out in open places with no backstop(like a wall), congested indoors, slippery surfaces/uneven surfaces like stairs (falling down is really bad) etc
4) see how many marks the whiteboard-marker left in your body

Will help figure out your survival rate. You will not be happy at the initial results, but will help figure out tactical situations. Also CCTV/phone cam is the worst enemy of such perps, else cops will play games for money, when the perps counter-sue you, using their superior eco-system resources. In this case the perps self-implicated themselves beyond doubt. But need not happen all the time

[Sachin]

on assembly dissolution

The article you quoted, IMHO only handles a scenario when the financial year's budget has not been passed by the current state government. My understanding is that by this time, this financial year's budget would have already got passed. Note the "dissolution of the assembly, when Budget has not been voted".

[vijayk]

https://twitter.com/thehawkeyex/status/ ... 1665376257


https://twitter.com/thehawkeyex/status/ ... 5760333824



https://twitter.com/thehawkeyex/status/ ... 9718284288

CPJ published full article for Zubair. Walker (Ford prez) on board, funded by OSF, GATEs & ilk, CPJ is project of Knight Fo which is funded by Democracy Fund which is owned by Omdiyar. Narrative & disinfo is their best bet.
Sometime back I asked who wud pay for expensive lawyers?

[chetak]

Another noob pooch:
Given the tension in Rajasthan, how will this affect BJP's prospects??
will there be polarisation??
Col Rajyavardhan Rathore can he be billed as CM anointed??
Will Vasundharaji accept??

Forget about hitting the streets in protests, more than 24 hrs after the heinous, barbaric act and Vasundhara Raje is yet to even issue a statement condemning the murder of kanhaiya lal, it just goes to tell how much she cares about the state or her people.

The murder of a the tailor in udaipur is being treated as an act of terror, says NIA as it books the two accused under the stringent UAPA.

One of the accused visited pak in 2014 and an ISIS connection is also emerging now

this case seems to have cross border ramifications

[chetak]

on assembly dissolution

The article you quoted, IMHO only handles a scenario when the financial year's budget has not been passed by the current state government. My understanding is that by this time, this financial year's budget would have already got passed. Note the "dissolution of the assembly, when Budget has not been voted".

I asked and got this answer, saar

Governor can summon house without the aid and advice of the Council of Ministers if there are reasons to believe that Government has lost confidence of house.

Justice J.S. Kehar in his judgment in Nabam Rebia v. Dy. Speaker, Arunachal Pradesh Legislative Assembly noted that if the Governor has reasons to believe that the Chief Minister and his Council of Ministers have lost the confidence of the House, the Governor can exercise powers under Article 174 on his own without the aid and advice of the council of ministers.

BTW, in todays cabinet meeting of the MVA......

The special Cabinet meeting presided over by #Maharashtra took some important decisions:
1) Approved #Aurangabad to be named Sambhajinagar
2) Approved #Osmanabad to be named Dharashiv
3) Navi Mumbai International Airport to be named after DB Patil


If this is the best that the MVA have got at this stage and just before the floor test, it looks like the dying gasps of a mortally wounded coalition

even some congi MLA's supporters are indicating that the MLAs are likely to defect

In this tussle between AS and the onions, AS, for now seems to have a death grip

these die-nast bosses are in a hopeless minority within the party itself, forget the House.

It's best that he resigns to avert the humiliation

Eknath Shinde's camp, the rebel Shiv Sena MLAs donate ₹51 lakh for Assam flood relief

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 578803.ece

the congis have not donated one single paise

[chanakyaa]

.

BTW, in todays cabinet meeting of the MVA......

The special Cabinet meeting presided over by #Maharashtra took some important decisions:
1) Approved #Aurangabad to be named Sambhajinagar
2) Approved #Osmanabad to be named Dharashiv
3) Navi Mumbai International Airport to be named after DB Patil
…

Nukkad people are saying that this is just a silly setup for NCP to pull support by expressing dissatisfaction to these changes only after SC decision. Some face saving gift from sujamal. Will see

[vimal]

This is what i mentioned before. Zoobear, Pratik etc are just the symptoms, real puppet masters are the old guard with foreign funded NGOs.

[Lisa]

Floor test tomorrow.

[sanjayc]

Supreme court allows floor test tommorrow

[nachiket]

Yes, SC has refused to stay the floor test. Meanwhile UT govt. has decided to change the names of Aurangabad and Osmanabad to Sambhajinagar and Dharashiv respectively. Last minute attempt to prove Hindutva credentials

[vijayk]

He probably will quit

[chetak]

.

BTW, in todays cabinet meeting of the MVA......

The special Cabinet meeting presided over by #Maharashtra took some important decisions:
1) Approved #Aurangabad to be named Sambhajinagar
2) Approved #Osmanabad to be named Dharashiv
3) Navi Mumbai International Airport to be named after DB Patil
…

Nukkad people are saying that this is just a silly setup for NCP to pull support by expressing dissatisfaction to these changes only after SC decision. Some face saving gift from sujamal. Will see

the congis have already objected strenuously to the renaming at the so called "cabinet" meeting itself.

one version says that looks like UT wanted to use their objection as an excuse to resign but the congis preempted the whole drama by walking out of the meeting and left him holding the loudly ticking bag.

Uddhav thanks his cabinet colleagues for standing by him for past 2.5 yrs
Also apologises for any mistakes made. this looks like a विदाई वाली लाइन, no...

the onions dreams of president, VP, PM etc. have all been ground into the dust and next gen of the die-nasty is also in serious jeopardy.

If fadnavis comes back, that will be the beginning of the end of the onions because there is serious bad blood there.

The curse of the palghar sadhus cannot be evaded so easily.

[IndraD]

SC allows NCP leaders Nawab Malik and Anil Deshmukh to participate in floor test tomorrow. SO jailed MLAs can vote.

[IndraD]

Udaipur murder accused went to Karachi in 2014, had links with Dawat-e-Islami: Police https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/u ... 2022-06-29

[chetak]

He probably will quit

he will be necked out with no option left but to resign

the other two will will make bombastic statements and quit before the floor test, probably today night itself... hoping to salvage something out of this humongous clusterf(uk

but for UT, there is no quitting from the shambles that he created while being led by his nose by his "well wishers". he was the "more than willing" accomplice of two expert snake oil salesmen who blindsided him because of his false pride and impotently soaring ambition.

the end game harakiri was all his own doing, pushed by his politically clueless wife and egged on by his pappu son

[Karan M]

This is a result of constant polarization of the Muslim community over the last 30 years. The advent of WhatsApp and other mass messaging platform has made it much more widespread.

Add to that the constant Friday prayers.

Really sir? WhatsApp was around in 1947? Or did this man have access to WhatsApp too?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilm-ud-din

We are for all practical purposes living in a shariah compliant state, for a long time.

[chetak]

SC allows NCP leaders Nawab Malik and Anil Deshmukh to participate in floor test tomorrow. SO jailed MLAs can vote.

they can't do jackschitt in the vote.

they desperately want to come out of jail so as to be able to talk to some people, far away from the eyes and ears of the polis