2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Ambar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3173
Joined: 12 Jun 2010 09:56
Location: Weak meek unkil Sam!

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Ambar »

The opinion polls coming out of UP indicates a tight election. While there is always an anti-incumbency factor, a full 10-12% drop is vote share is something BJP really needs to try and bridge between now and the 5 phases of election. I also think it was a strategic blunder not to lean on EC for postponing the elections until May when this wave of the pandemic should subside. BJP's strength are its robust campaigning and mobilization of karyakartas , both of which will be harder with EC restrictions and a raging pandemic.
CalvinH
BRFite
Posts: 1098
Joined: 15 Jul 2007 04:14

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by CalvinH »

ramana wrote:I guess you are bitter and cant see the importance of Afghanistan while TSP exists. Right now the very same Afghans have erased Durand Line and are giving TSP lots of pain. They need their atta to fight.
Also, the importance of Indian vaccine in Afghanistan can't be overstated.
Agree. The only entity that can give Pakis real pain is Afghans and Pakhtuns. As they get more independence they will be to Pakis what Pakis are to the rest of the neighborhood. Producing nothing of value but extracting from any leverage that they have.
chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 32294
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

this is how things are going to go in many states.

no need to apply required permissions will automatically be granted and post haste too


@Sunil_Deodhar·14h

Illegal Masjid constructed in #Atmakur, AP.

@BJP4Andhra district presidnt Budda Srikanth Reddy & GS complained against it.
Thousands of Muslim Gundas pelted stones, attacked our Leaders & police, burnt vehicles.

Instead of Appeasing minorities Govt must book rioters.
#kurnool

see the attached video in the link

https://twitter.com/Sunil_Deodhar/statu ... 7244100609
ritesh
BRFite
Posts: 494
Joined: 13 Dec 2005 17:48
Location: Mumbai

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ritesh »

Murthy ji, on the same YT channel more snippet of that meeting are there.

Puspendra ji is doing yoemans job of visiting numerous places around the country and encouraging people to become more sanatanis and making our presence felt on the ground where it all matters.
Karan M
Forum Moderator
Posts: 20773
Joined: 19 Mar 2010 00:58

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Karan M »

ramana wrote:At a cursory level, you appear right. However, I want to point to you to look at the Naval acquisitions in 2021.
1 SSBN (Arihant extended class)
2 SSK (Scorpene class)
1 Destroyer
1 IAC (Vikrant class)
Ramana sir,

I understand your optimism regarding how much *this* GOI has achieved in terms of policy and taking a stance. However, at the end of the day budgetary allocations towards defence determine our ability to withstand the kind of coercion the Pak-PRC combine can throw at us. We have to do more on that front. Let me explain further.

For instance, lets check PLAN build rates. USN is now on record stating they have fallen behind, are unlikely to catch up and will hence have to reconsider their strategy. The USN vet who submitted that analysis to the US Congress has openly stated the same that PLAN build rates have now crossed the rubicon.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... s?from=mdr

This is last years for PLAN alone.
The year's haul included one Type 094A ballistic missile submarine (SSBN), two Type 075 helicopter landing docks (LHD), three Type 055 cruisers, seven Type 052D destroyers, six Type 056A corvettes, six Type 082II mine countermeasure vessels, one cable-laying ship and three Type 927 surveillance ships.


Now I've been one of those who've openly and repeatedly pointed out QA/QC issues with PLA gear. But the above is simply overwhelming in terms of excess capacity added.

To put it simply, even if they have 20%-30% lower serviceability, the amount they can deploy is increasingly overhauling what we have. The number disparity has grown to be that great.

The only saving grace for us is their focus on the SCS/Taiwan, but in an all out conflict, they can and will divert forces towards us.

And we need to look at the IAF too. While the IAF has stagnated at a mere 30 odd squadrons, the PLAAF is adding more and more infra & also providing counters to most of our top end gear to PAF. The IAF is the only force with the ability to rapidly swing between the theaters.
Also please read Rohitvats' 49 points summary of the last two years of LAC confrontation.
I've read RV's summary - but I'd also point out we have already "lost" disputed territory in the PRC salami slicing during the UPA era, and with current force levels, we simply cannot get it back without significant loss. Even now they have bottled us up in several sectors by having us waste our time in negotiations as versus forcing their retreat. The problem is if we ratchet up our resistance and it goes "hot", we will be at a disadvantage in some time, given how much they are investing in infrastructure.

Coming to the IA itself, RV himself has noted in the past that our existing Pak formations have been cannibalized to move them to the PRC border. Now, we've lost our reserves. We've already moved significant elements of one strike corp. So either we heavily build up the ground forces or at least the AF to support a proper offensive posture. Ravi Rikhye who tracks orbat closely has also noted we are now bereft of extra formations and the "buffer" that we once had no longer exists.

Our arty holdings while better than before are still in red tape. Tube arty continues to be dogged by no orders and OFB delays.

Now, the one thing in our favour is terrain - chokepoints, and the large distances for the PLA to traverse are in our favor. But that's only with one front. If both front's are activated, we are going to face a severe challenge, primarily because we have ignored airpower. That was and is the decisive force that could swing things our way.

If the PLARF enters the fray, almost all our AFB are vulnerable. A mere 5 squadrons of S-400 cannot protest us from BM Salvos. That's 10 batteries. RV has calculated an optimistic 6 batteries per squadron in his assessment. However, the std Russian regimental set is 2 batteries, and GOI documentation in the past indicated 10 S-400 firing units.

A S-400 battery cannot defend against BMs and air breathing targets simultaneously with optimal efficiency. The MRSAM deliveries have only commenced and are at best of some use against TBMs. We haven't invested in the desi-BMD either to accelerate it. Only now is it picking up. DRDO's budget is at 60% of ask. Again, budgetary shortfall.

So, to fight the PLARF threat and CM threat, we are dependent on dispersal, to ensure we dont lose our aircraft assets. Most of our parallel AFB are not hardened either. Due to limited budgets, limited hardening has been done at select bases.

Meanwhile, PLA is increasingly going to rely on real time satellite data to target our scarce assets.

https://www.indiatoday.in/news-analysis ... 2021-10-01
The Jilin-1 constellation, named after Jilin province, where the company is based, would have 138 individual high-performance optical remote sensing satellites which amongst them would cover every inch of the Earth's surface at a maximum revisit gap of 10 minutes only. According to the company, Jilin-1 satellites deliver high-quality remote sensing information and product services for agricultural and forestry production, environmental monitoring, smart city, geographical mapping, land planning and other fields.
In August 2020, the South Asia Monitor reported that Pakistan had purchased real-time satellite data, from China, that could provide it the precise position of Indian Army camps across the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir. The satellite data that was being purchased came from the Jilin-1 constellation.

In September 2020, 9 Jilin-1 satellites were launched at one go from a platform on the Yellow Sea atop a Long March-11 rocket. That was the first time that China launched satellites at sea, it used the smaller Long March-11 for the purpose but could still have a payload of 9 satellites because of the small size of the Jilin-1 Gaofen (GF) series satellites. The Jilin-1 GF satellites are built on a lightweight structural design having an integrated electronics system and carrying a high-resolution ultra-light low-cost camera that keeps the weight of each satellite at 40kg.
The issue is that with a mere 30 squadrons - one of the lowest numbers in the IAF's recorded history, attrition affects us far harder than the PLAAF.

Consider that because of budget shortfalls, we are yet to order the Su-30 upgrade, the additional 2 Phalcons, the additional IFR, let alone the discussed 33 additional fighters (MiG-29s and Su-30s). In contrast, the PLAAF added many times that number of assets. We've delayed the Tejas Mk1A order due to budgetary issues and the aircraft have a lead time of 20-24 months post order, as is industry standard.

In such a milieu, our window of vulnerability will increase unless we drastically improve budget availability,, with a realization PRC is just biding its time. And Pak may well be roped in with sufficient incentive.

For instance, the IAF, during conflict - has to simultaneously take off and fight despite BM/CM barrages. Has to maintain air superiority. Has to act as flying artillery for limited ground offensives. Has to also undertake deep interdiction against strategic targets. Has to engage in OCA/DCA. And if nukes get involved - they are the only force capable of stopping the TELs from launching. With a mere 30 squadrons, they can't do all of this. And in terms of airframes we have only added 36 Rafales, and have ordered Tejas pretty late (till Mk1A arrives, we have to make do with Bisons). At the very least the budgetary wherewithal for additional munitions, upgrades and force multipliers should be provided, as well as allowing them to accelerate their SAM umbrella. And only with additional budget will the IAF support the Tejas MWF. Otherwise they regard it as a multi-year devpt program taking away "their funds" from their huge need for more immediate airframes.

Hence, given the above, my significant concern is while we have done a lot, the sheer shortage of budgetary resources is severely limiting our options.
titash
BRFite
Posts: 609
Joined: 26 Aug 2011 18:44

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by titash »

Karan M wrote: ...
Hence, given the above, my significant concern is while we have done a lot, the sheer shortage of budgetary resources is severely limiting our options.
Karan M-ji, does this mean that we will need (or should consider) the use of tactical nuclear weapons on the first day of the conflict? Isn't that the only logical way to avoid defeat? That is also how the Pakis hold us at bay, don't they? Isn't that also what prevents the NoKos from getting their arse kicked?
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5481
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Cyrano »

CalvinH wrote:
ramana wrote:I guess you are bitter and cant see the importance of Afghanistan while TSP exists. Right now the very same Afghans have erased Durand Line and are giving TSP lots of pain. They need their atta to fight.
Also, the importance of Indian vaccine in Afghanistan can't be overstated.
Agree. The only entity that can give Pakis real pain is Afghans and Pakhtuns. As they get more independence they will be to Pakis what Pakis are to the rest of the neighborhood. Producing nothing of value but extracting from any leverage that they have.
I don't really know if Indian vaccines, medicines, food aid etc will build "useful goodwill" with Taliban and Afghans at large, and what that useful goodwill or the lack of it can do to help or harm India.

One may argue that the billions spent building parliaments, dams, libraries etc has helped evacuate Indians safely from Afghanistan when TBs took over. Or that TBs were interested in grabbing power and not terrorising foreigners and Indians would have got out like all the others anyway.

One may argue that TBs goodwill may stop them from eagerly sending jehadis into Kashmir. Or that buying such goodwill is temporary, smells like ransom and let them come and we'll send them to 72.

One may argue that such largesse will help stay involved in Afg affairs as its key to Central Asia. Or that none of these countries are really reliable, didn't prevent TBs 2nd coming, and that all will sell their mommas to the Chinese, like Iran.

Since I don't really know, for now, I'll go with what our competent MEA is doing, since these gestures are pocket lint for a 3.1T economy, and it doesn't take away any muscular options we have, should we ever get around to using them.
Pratyush
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12198
Joined: 05 Mar 2010 15:13

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Pratyush »

titash wrote:
Karan M wrote: ...
Hence, given the above, my significant concern is while we have done a lot, the sheer shortage of budgetary resources is severely limiting our options.
Karan M-ji, does this mean that we will need (or should consider) the use of tactical nuclear weapons on the first day of the conflict? Isn't that the only logical way to avoid defeat? That is also how the Pakis hold us at bay, don't they? Isn't that also what prevents the NoKos from getting their arse kicked?
Yes, and the defence minister has already signalled a shift to this effect in the recent past.

But in addition to that, we have to think in terms of growing the IAF to 2000 to 2500 fighters and associated logistics assets. With the Navy growing from under 40 major combatants to 200 to 250.
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5481
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Cyrano »


Link https://youtu.be/VpNht4qlMF8

Great clarity. Video seems incomplete.

Deserves widespread circulation.
Hmmmmm.... PK is usually more focused than that, he is deflecting and reflecting the criticism that this Govt is not doing enough on the Dharmic Civilisational Agenda by saying the One Man (only? What happened to the other 302?) govt has internal and external constraints (which leader doesn't?! Heck even talibunnies do !!) and worse, he is putting it all back on those who made 303 possible and put One Man there and continue to support him. Yes, we are preoccupied with whatever lives we lead and what karma throws at us. But One Man and the rest 303/4 whatever don't seem to be _enough_ preoccupied with DCA they purport to be championing. Invading streets like A Community is an admission that our leaders with all state machinery cannot deliver despite being put in power and we hindu log have to start with bare hands from scratch. I don't get his logic :roll:
ritesh
BRFite
Posts: 494
Joined: 13 Dec 2005 17:48
Location: Mumbai

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ritesh »

Cyrano wrote:

Link https://youtu.be/VpNht4qlMF8

Great clarity. Video seems incomplete.

Deserves widespread circulation.
Hmmmmm.... PK is usually more focused than that, he is deflecting and reflecting the criticism that this Govt is not doing enough on the Dharmic Civilisational Agenda by saying the One Man (only? What happened to the other 302?) govt has internal and external constraints (which leader doesn't?! Heck even talibunnies do !!) and worse, he is putting it all back on those who made 303 possible and put One Man there and continue to support him. Yes, we are preoccupied with whatever lives we lead and what karma throws at us. But One Man and the rest 303/4 whatever don't seem to be _enough_ preoccupied with DCA they purport to be championing. Invading streets like A Community is an admission that our leaders with all state machinery cannot deliver despite being put in power and we hindu log have to start with bare hands from scratch. I don't get his logic :roll:
The only thing Puspendra ji says is that Society can't expect to outsource its role to Govt or State. Just voting once in 5 yrs, is not enough and it can't absolve itself with what is happening around it.
Karan M
Forum Moderator
Posts: 20773
Joined: 19 Mar 2010 00:58

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Karan M »

titash wrote:
Karan M wrote: ...
Hence, given the above, my significant concern is while we have done a lot, the sheer shortage of budgetary resources is severely limiting our options.
Karan M-ji, does this mean that we will need (or should consider) the use of tactical nuclear weapons on the first day of the conflict? Isn't that the only logical way to avoid defeat? That is also how the Pakis hold us at bay, don't they? Isn't that also what prevents the NoKos from getting their arse kicked?
Sir going nuclear benefits none, especially us with our high population density. We'd lose everything we've done over the past decades or much of it, if the exchange escalates. I have very little confidence in the babulog being able to manage things given what many of us observed in all two waves of the pandemic, they literally needed a forceful push from a, political establishment to shake them out of complacency and this is a far cry from a nuke exchange.

Actually I've posted the numbers before - for a spend of a few dozen billion $, we can march ahead in S&T and also build up conventional deterrence for the next decade using a mix of imported and local both.

As Rahul M also noted, we are losing time. For instance IISCs GaN proposal is stuck for want of funding. Stuff like this is as important as social justice - we've transferred $24 Bn to farmers over 2 years. That's 12*DRDOs annual budget. Or two Rafale deals. Similarly, there is no jet engine program green lighted yet. We cite lack of funds.

Without that there is no AMCA. Because of the lack of funds, the IAF is targeting MWF to get MRFA. End result, despite Tejas, its follow on programs are at risk because of our parsimony.

So while we do focus on the social justice stuff, all that will go for a toss if there is a conflict and the political establishment is held responsible. We lose the one Govt that has actually been honest and tried to fix things and is not beholden to foreign special interest groups.

We can afford a financing increase for specific areas using a mix of sovereign debt and multiple financing methods. It wouldn't spike inflation in the country by a huge amount either IMHO.

All the frugality we are currently demonstrating will only be spent overnight on wasteful expenditure by a UPA style Govt anyhow. And we are spending heavily on social justice stuff anyhow.

But by targeted spending on defense, heavy industry we can actually address multiple technology sectors in India and build deterrence too. Unless we do this, we won't be taken seriously by our adversaries or even the international community which only takes hard power into account.

And given we don't want to overcommit to any Quad or any other restrictive grouping, we need to commit to this approach.
IndraD
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9322
Joined: 26 Dec 2008 15:38
Location: भारत का निश्चेत गगन

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by IndraD »

Image
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8788
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by vijayk »

SC junked Govt's investigation into PM's security lapse and appointed a retired judge. I think not drawing clear lines of non-interference and being meek is making them more and more aggressive in encroaching into the domain of executive.
Dilbu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8272
Joined: 07 Nov 2007 22:53
Location: Deep in the badlands of BRFATA

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Dilbu »

SC lead investigation means it is a stalled investigation with the report hopefully coming out in 2030. Judicial overreach is right up there in the list along with other major threats India is facing currently.
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5481
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Cyrano »

The only thing Puspendra ji says is that Society can't expect to outsource its role to Govt or State. Just voting once in 5 yrs, is not enough and it can't absolve itself with what is happening around it.
The converse is also true, the state cant expect the public to do -certain- things when it's been given powers, means, reach and organisation, with a 5 year mandate.

Honestly PK is making a bunkum argument here. He is saying Hindus must adopt the aggressive, violent and brutal methods of other communities to achieve their asks if not it their fault, so they should lower expectations from the BJP Govt. Now how would that play out ? Hindu society should put pressure on the Govt, on lets say Freeing Temples from Govt control issue by holding mass dharnas and rallys, attack endowments staff, burn a few offices and kill a few state representatives from prominent temples like Tirupathi, attack the judge who said Srisailam temple must give vendor contracts to people from all religions to set up shops in the temple premises which is by definition a non-secular institution, and attack any non-hindu who sets up shop ? And going down that path will help advance dharmic agenda? :roll: :roll:
SRajesh
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2071
Joined: 04 Aug 2019 22:03

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by SRajesh »

I sometimes wonder if this is all a course correction by the Hizhonors following the RJ/Ayodhya ruling.
SC monitored investigation ordered with alacrity in PM security lapse.
But took own time in considering the PILs on post poll violence in WB
All in all 'Men in SC' will do all that is necessary to prevent a third coming of 'Jai Bajrang Bali'!!
So expect stoppage of UP elections half way through some PIL claiming increasing numbers of Omicron but Goa Punjab and rest will go ahead.
Prashant B and the coterie will be back with more PILs
Primus
BRFite
Posts: 1259
Joined: 06 Mar 2002 12:31
Location: Ground Zero

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Primus »

I've said this before and will say it again.

Hindus are a dying civilization, we are, most of us, HINOs, that's all. What PK is saying is that we focus too much on the 'package' which is the absolute truth. Ask around in your own family, the only question whenever somebody gets a job or gets engaged to a life-partner is 'kitne ka package hai'.

The reason we see no actions against Peacefuls even if they are obviously in the wrong - roadside namaz, illegal mosques, encroachment into Hindu areas, love-Jihad, forced expulsions of Hindus from small villages - IOW all the evils they perpetrate in, is their sheer ability to muster street muscle at a moment's notice. You just cannot fight that without having an equally strong, 'non-state' entity get into the fray.

Nobody is asking for gangs of Hindus to terrorize Judges or vandalize cars, or destroy property. Just need to show up in numbers. Do you ever think Shaheen Bagh would have resolved if it wasn't for COVID? The 'farmer protests' showed us what the power of raw numbers and the blockage of national highways can do.

If Hindus could unite (a very unlikely scenario, sadly) and gather in large numbers to show they care, things would not be one-sided. If a large crowd of Hindus was allowed to confront and dismantle Shaheen Bagh, there would be no Republic Day attack and no 'Farmer Protest'. Yes, there would have been escalation and riots and loss of lives possibly, but IMHO it would have been no worse, in fact, better than what happened later.

Where else in the world would a nation see its policemen being forced to jump into a moat to save themselves from a hostile crowd without being able to defend themselves? Those images are seared in my brain. How could something like that have been allowed to happen? It did because of Hindu apathy and a lack of will to defend what is ours. If the 'other side' can bring a thousand people on to the street, why can't we? We are, after all, the majority population in the country.

As an aside, AFAIK, data shows that in the majority of the communal riots in the country, although the trouble was started by the Peacefuls, it is the Hindus that prevailed in the end. So if we can, when pushed to the wall, assert ourselves, why can't we do it preemptively?
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5481
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Cyrano »

This is, nothing personal, a ridiculous argument that expects better results from a mob vs mob approach instead of the Govt doing its effing job as per law to implement and enforce the law. What Yogi is doing in UP is a start.

Namaz on streets is a simple traffic & law and order problem if dealt with correctly, immediately and consistently at local level.

Dealing with farmers protests on R-Day is the Govt job. If a huge Hindu mob landed there you think the bhang-charas doped tractor riding crowd would have simply gone home? If large Hindu crowds confronted Shaheen Bagh, they'd just have melted away? And why should a citizen - hindu or not, risk his life confronting anarchy by creating even more anarchy when the Govt is not acting?

It seems to defend Modi & BJP Govt we're conflating everything.
SRajesh
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2071
Joined: 04 Aug 2019 22:03

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by SRajesh »

Mods please indulge in my digressing
But can someone tell me what is the data for UP/Bihar/MP vis-a-vis Nasbandhi, meaning the Sanjay Gandhi-wali.
Was there a predilection for the Hindus to be targeted during that period.
It would be hopefully easy now to look at recent census and growth rate data to see if SG/Congress had a role in decline in the Hindu growth rate and increase in the Peaceful growth.
The reason I ask if this was a chance thing or deliberately done to skew the demographics so that the peacefuls will always be there for the mass voting during election period.
If Congress had a hand then this should be used properly in the electioneering time no!!
sanjaykumar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6095
Joined: 16 Oct 2005 05:51

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by sanjaykumar »

One needs data to model Hindu activism.

How did the Jammu protests over the Vaishnodevi shrine play out?

I believe KM took notice of it. Of course media accounts are next to useless to study such events, being heavily sanitised.
Primus
BRFite
Posts: 1259
Joined: 06 Mar 2002 12:31
Location: Ground Zero

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Primus »

Cyrano wrote:This is, nothing personal, a ridiculous argument that expects better results from a mob vs mob approach instead of the Govt doing its effing job as per law to implement and enforce the law. What Yogi is doing in UP is a start.

Namaz on streets is a simple traffic & law and order problem if dealt with correctly, immediately and consistently at local level.
Agree, nothing personal Cyrano Ji, but simply stating it from a very personal POV, from my own reading and assessment. I admit I may be completely wrong, but this is how I see it.

If it was an easy and simple case of traffic and Law and Order, there would be no Namaz on streets anywhere in India. Yet, I've seen it with my own eyes on Fridays around their festivals especially. No local or central government is willing to handle it. If you read about the situation in Gurgaon, even the BJP govt of the State gave them permission to do it and were very reluctant to forcibly prevent it. It was only the action of people like Ravi Ranjan Singh that made it happen. And he did it because they managed to get a crowd of Hindus to physically prevent the Peacefuls from doing it. The police still arrested the Hindus - imagine that.
Dealing with farmers protests on R-Day is the Govt job. If a huge Hindu mob landed there you think the bhang-charas doped tractor riding crowd would have simply gone home? If large Hindu crowds confronted Shaheen Bagh, they'd just have melted away?
And what exactly did the government do? Nothing. That is why they got bolder and blocked all highways entering the Capital of the country.

The time to confront the crowd would have been before they brought the tractors in. To do that, you need the ability to mobilize thousands of your own people with their own tractors to block entry into the city by these mobs.

A thousand-strong Hindu crowd armed with lathis would have indeed caused the Peacefuls at Shaheen Bagh to run away. They are always afraid of raw muscle and that is the only language they understand. The police and local governments are helpless.
And why should a citizen - hindu or not, risk his life confronting anarchy by creating even more anarchy when the Govt is not acting?
Because the government is never able to act against such anarchists, never has in the history of the nation - at least not to my knowledge. Instead, it has acted against Hindu crowds - the sadhus at Parliament and the kar sevaks at Ayodhya come to mind right away.

So the only way to prevent such events in the future is to preempt them. If the Peacefuls know that they will face severe retaliation by an equally well armed and hostile Hindu crowd, they will not do it.

That is why people like Yati are saying what they are. That is the only way. No government - BJP or any other - will come to our rescue, they simply cannot and will not. It is up to us to protect what is ours. If the Hindu is simply going to look the other way and let 'somebody else' handle it, it will never stop. We need to learn a lesson from our own history and follow the example of the Ranas of Mewar. If the Hindu is not willing to risk his life, he might as well convert and become a Peaceful himself. For that is what is going to happen.
It seems to defend Modi & BJP Govt we're conflating everything.
Not defending Modi govt at all, I hold them responsible for many lapses, including the wretched treatment of the Hindus in WB after the elections. However, it is difficult for the central government to take very strong measures against a deliberately obstructive State. What the MHA could do is use every possible tool at their disposal, including identification of the key players and arresting/prosecuting them. One would never have seen this degree of apathy from Indira Gandhi, she was ruthless where her opponents were concerned. BJP is just 'too polite' and 'too PC' to win some battles.
Primus
BRFite
Posts: 1259
Joined: 06 Mar 2002 12:31
Location: Ground Zero

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Primus »

Rsatchi wrote:Mods please indulge in my digressing
.................
The reason I ask if this was a chance thing or deliberately done to skew the demographics so that the peacefuls will always be there for the mass voting during election period.
If Congress had a hand then this should be used properly in the electioneering time no!!
Fascinating thought. I remember as a young man going to the local motor vehicle office to pay the road tax for my motorbike, being asked by the idiot clerk ' nasbandi kara li'? When I answered 'main to abhi kunwara hoon', the response was 'certificate dikhana'. This was the standard interplay as reported by many friends too. You could not pay your bloody road tax at the DMV without bribing the babu there. Such was the state of corruption under the Congress for most of their rule.

If true as Satchi Ji suggests, it would become a huge club to bash the Congress with.
SRajesh
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2071
Joined: 04 Aug 2019 22:03

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by SRajesh »

^^^Primusji
All you have to do is look at the Kitchen Cabinet of Mrs Gandhi, quite a devious lot!!
Also Upper level IAS ofsaraans during that period were very woke for that period me thinks!!
I doubt if they ever thought a day will come that a right wing government at the centre will be formed especially, notwithstanding Atalji
ritesh
BRFite
Posts: 494
Joined: 13 Dec 2005 17:48
Location: Mumbai

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ritesh »

Cyrano wrote:This is, nothing personal, a ridiculous argument that expects better results from a mob vs mob approach instead of the Govt doing its effing job as per law to implement and enforce the law. What Yogi is doing in UP is a start.
Yes shreeman, perfectly fine argument. But not all SG are BJP ruled and even there only few like Himanta and Yogi are fearless. Rest are just too busy with being politically correct. What is the alternate you suggest then?
Cyrano wrote: Namaz on streets is a simple traffic & law and order problem if dealt with correctly, immediately and consistently at local level.
Again, same as above...
Cyrano wrote: Dealing with farmers protests on R-Day is the Govt job. If a huge Hindu mob landed there you think the bhang-charas doped tractor riding crowd would have simply gone home? If large Hindu crowds confronted Shaheen Bagh, they'd just have melted away? And why should a citizen - hindu or not, risk his life confronting anarchy by creating even more anarchy when the Govt is not acting?
Did not risking lives helped those who were collateral damage in Delhi riots or any other in history?
Cyrano wrote: It seems to defend Modi & BJP Govt we're conflating everything.
Request you to pls hear PK, his only assertion is at least step out and show your strength in number. Bas, aur kuch na kare sirf bahar aaye aur apni shankya dikhaye?

If we are not even ready to do this simple task to go out and presenting in an large gathering across the length and breadth of this country than we are bound to wait 70 yrs after independence for RJB or getting adverse judgement like Sabarmala or jalaikatu etc. by judiciary and RoE bill and 370 35A like article in our constitution con party.
Aditya_V
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14333
Joined: 05 Apr 2006 16:25

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Aditya_V »

So we have listen to PK, advisor to Mamta , DMK and anti Hindu forces, that is like Pakistan listening to my advice, which always led to thier quickest extinction. He is just spreading fud.
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8788
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by vijayk »

Sonu Sood's sister joined Punjab CON party. Shows how BIF changed its tactics. Many people on whatsapp fell for this scammer during COVID. sponsor one bus and get 10000 cr worth of advt.
Ambar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3173
Joined: 12 Jun 2010 09:56
Location: Weak meek unkil Sam!

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Ambar »

vijayk wrote:Sonu Sood's sister joined Punjab CON party. Shows how BIF changed its tactics. Many people on whatsapp fell for this scammer during COVID. sponsor one bus and get 10000 cr worth of advt.
He showed his colors very early on but i do give him credit for some savvy, out-of-the-box PR. When he started making snide comments/memes on twitter about the so-called inefficiency of the centre in dealing with the migrant displacement crisis and food for the poor during the total lockdown it was clear that he had political ambitions. Although i always thought he will join AAP in PJ, i dont think he has a future in INC atleast not in PJ.
Lisa
BRFite
Posts: 1718
Joined: 04 May 2008 11:25

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Lisa »

Dilbu wrote:SC lead investigation means it is a stalled investigation with the report hopefully coming out in 2030. Judicial overreach is right up there in the list along with other major threats India is facing currently.
I do not live in India and therefore have only a limited understanding of how SC works. I would be of the opinion that SC ONLY interpret the law and accordingly pass judgement. Would anybody know of which laws interpretation allows them to establish an inquiry and if such a law does exist, can it be repelled? Furthermore, which law allows them to stop a governmental inquiry.

Just asking.
vimal
BRFite
Posts: 1904
Joined: 27 Jul 2017 10:32

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by vimal »

^^ Even I've never understood how our judiciary is able to poke its nose into executive's domain all the time.
srikandan
BRFite
Posts: 590
Joined: 20 Nov 2020 02:51

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by srikandan »

In this particular case, the Punjab state govt. was complicit in causing the security incident for the PM, and this seems to have conspired right from the level of State Home Minister -- any "investigation" conducted by the state govt. is suspect, so seems like the Courts conducting this investigation is likely to be better.

The courts in India seem to have moved into domains of executive and legislature, when the parliament was completely dysfunctional -- the "collegium" is not mentioned in the constitution. The Supreme Court just went ahead and claimed independence from the public mandate in 1998 on their own,
and we have the likes of NVRamana pretending that he and the supreme court are "special" and not answerable to the public and that their "collegium" is constitutional.
Appointment of Judges and Evolution of Collegium System

The Supreme Court has given different interpretations of the term "consultation."
In the First Judges case (1982), it was determined that consultation does not require agreement, but rather an interchange of ideas.
In the Second Judges case (1993), the Supreme Court overturned its previous ruling, altering the definition of the word consultation to concurrence.
The Second Judges Case (1993) curtailed the government's role by deciding that the Chief Justice of India will be chosen only by the Supreme Court's senior-most judge.
In the Third Judges case (1998), the Supreme Court declared that the Chief Justice of India's consultation procedure necessitates "consultation with a plurality of judges."
The CJI's single opinion does not define the consultation process. He or she should consult a collegium of four senior Supreme Court justices, and even if two of them disagree, he or she should not pass the idea on to the government.
As a result of the "third judges case," the Collegium system was formed, and it has been in use since 1998 in the High Courts and Supreme Courts to nominate and transfer judges.
The original Indian Constitution, as well as later amendments, include no reference to the Collegium.
Lisa
BRFite
Posts: 1718
Joined: 04 May 2008 11:25

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Lisa »

Why is the state quiet. It is elected and therefore the voice of the people. Courts are appointed and by that virtue ONLY interpreters or have I missed something. How does an appointee tell an elected official what the law is. An elected official is by descriptive a lawmaker. Correct?
srikandan
BRFite
Posts: 590
Joined: 20 Nov 2020 02:51

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by srikandan »

Lisaji: Why is the state quiet. It is elected and therefore the voice of the people. Courts are appointed and by that virtue ONLY interpreters or have I missed something. How does an appointee tell an elected official what the law is. An elected official is by descriptive a lawmaker. Correct?
Good question. Only the hizzoners in the SC can explain why they say BS like this:

https://advocatethorat.blogspot.com/202 ... calls.html

The CJI said, “Perhaps, the most important feature of the Indian Constitution is the fact that it provides a framework for debate. It is through such debate and discussion that the nation ultimately progresses, evolves, and achieves higher levels of welfare for the people. The most direct and visible players in this process are, of course, the lawyers and judges of this country.”

“As people with intimate knowledge of the Constitution and the laws, it is also your responsibility to educate the rest of the citizenry about the role they play in society. The history, present, and the future of this nation lie on your shoulders,” the CJI told lawyers.
Apparently, the nation progresses because of judges and lawyers in the country, not because elected representative backed by a public mandate, or because of the hard work/enterprising nature of the public at large. The MPs and MLAs in the executive and legislature are just for show, clearly.
sivab
BRFite
Posts: 1075
Joined: 22 Feb 2006 07:56

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by sivab »

Lisa wrote: I do not live in India and therefore have only a limited understanding of how SC works. I would be of the opinion that SC ONLY interpret the law and accordingly pass judgement. Would anybody know of which laws interpretation allows them to establish an inquiry and if such a law does exist, can it be repelled? Furthermore, which law allows them to stop a governmental inquiry.

Just asking.
vimal wrote:^^ Even I've never understood how our judiciary is able to poke its nose into executive's domain all the time.
Most likely mods will delete this post due to fear of Indian Judiciary.

India is technically a Kritarchy (ruled by Judiciary) now. In short Indian constitution is flawed in this respect. Ambedkar/CA didn't want to give power to appoint Judiciary to executive alone. It should have been given in part to legislative branch. But he/CA reasoned that since executive will have majority in legislature due to the way Indian system works, it will be redundant to give power to legislature (he didn't think about minority governments). Per Indian constitution the executive will have "to consult CJI" for judicial appointments. This is the fundamental flaw. Till 1980's executive had upper hand. Due to weak minority governments since 1990's, judiciary appropriated out of thin air two powers for themselves:

1. They invented "basic structure doctrine" which effectively resulted in whatever Judiciary says becomes law. They can now invalidate laws, make new ones on whim, invalidate any constitutional amendment as they wish. WIth this power they invented extra constitutional collegium that appoints Judges and executive cannot reject it (again rule made by judiciary from thin air), can only delay the appointments for sometime. This is why judicial appointments take 1-2 years by GoI.
2. They invented public interest litigation in which anyone can claim locus in anything in public interest (this is not possible in other countries) and judiciary can rule as they please. This gave rise to a big NGO industry with funding from external countries and internal special interests groups. Most of internal funding comes from GOP of india. INC is an expert on manipulating this to their advantage even when out of power. They fail very rarely. Regional parties fear INC for this reason.

This is why every law, every executive decision and every constitutional amendment is challenged in courts. There are so many arbitrary laws made adhoc based on judicial rulings. Rulings are not uniform, each case gets its own conflicting with each other.

First thing BJP govt in 2014 did was to pass NJAC constitutional amendment to limit some power of Judiciary. INC supported it first time so it passed parliament with thumping majority and 2/3 of state legislatures approved it. Using 2 a PIL was brought by NGO cottage industry and using 1 SC invalidated the constitutional amendment.

Same thing happened with PM security. A PIL was brought by NGO cottage industry (Maninder Singh husband of sitting Delhi high court judge Prathiba M. Singh) on very next day after the incident. SC immediately jumped in and halted all proceedings of central govt.
Lisa
BRFite
Posts: 1718
Joined: 04 May 2008 11:25

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Lisa »

I remain perplexed by one matter in particular. I have mentioned it before but did not get any real answers. How can a culture that is as old as time (no other in existence reaches as far back us "ours") be governed by a constitution that is some 70 years old. How does this document become an all encompassing thought that transcends all our REAL history and culture. Its span is barely 1% of our existence and yet it has a reverence that God barely processes.

More to the point, if the constitution is assumed to be such a perfect document, then why allow ANY amendments?

Surely something is deeply wrong and more troublingly, nobody wishes to bell this cat. India cannot be dictated to by such a creation.
Rampy
BRFite
Posts: 317
Joined: 25 Mar 2003 12:31

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Rampy »

Dilbu wrote:SC lead investigation means it is a stalled investigation with the report hopefully coming out in 2030. Judicial overreach is right up there in the list along with other major threats India is facing currently.
SC is taking action because some dumb wit filed a case, to ensure head is not rolled. AG Mehta is fighting it out
venkat_kv
BRFite
Posts: 459
Joined: 05 Dec 2020 21:01

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by venkat_kv »

sanjayc wrote:^^ How does your argument about FCRA or internal security negate the fact that BJP is chronically disinterested in setting up an ecosystem of its own to counter that of Congress and communists, and in fact is quite hostile or uncooperative to the budding system of RW that is coming into being bit by bit on its own?
SanjayC Saar,
An ecosystem should come up by its own in an organic way, based on conditions available. Sure based on the current mood, the nationalists/ or the govt can provide for the ecosystm to come up quicker, but at the end of the day they have to be able to stand on their own two feet (otherwise things will fold in no time like that Tiranga TV that had backing of Kapil Sibal).

In that sense, what Sanjay Dixit or Ajeet Bharathi are doing is good. Most of the youtube and SM channels are standing by themselves (in case the local govts change and they decide to go after the channels or individuals).

It is not in govts interest to setup an overtly rightwing eco-system. It will backfire in international arena and also the aoc gang from the US will openly target the institution or individuals that are associated with the said platform. on the other hand somebody like Jaipur dialogues or Ajeet bharathi will be seen as individuals (they will be targeted but the amount of support they build helps them to overcome any issue. thye will have to go through the hard initiation proecedures to become even bigger entities than they are today).

The FCRA laws change in the recent times actually helps the govt to target the funding sources that helps in getting to organize the protests. without birayni packets and the money distributed, the "bilkis dadi" would probably not have sat through the winter on the road.

the newer laws will help target any NGO or organisations getting foreign funding to get protests on the street. This is a good first step - seems people are understimating this step and there has been little to no discussion on these changes.

Discussing the new changes to FCRA laws will make people to see things clearly.
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8788
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by vijayk »

Rampy wrote:
Dilbu wrote:SC lead investigation means it is a stalled investigation with the report hopefully coming out in 2030. Judicial overreach is right up there in the list along with other major threats India is facing currently.
SC is taking action because some dumb wit filed a case, to ensure head is not rolled. AG Mehta is fighting it out
Is that so easy? SO all CON/BIF has to do is to pay jihadis to commit horrible crime and their friends will file a case and SC will stop all the inquiry.

Govt. has to say you have no role.Parliament and Executive are supreme. You have no powers to stop. We continue our investigations.
venkat_kv
BRFite
Posts: 459
Joined: 05 Dec 2020 21:01

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by venkat_kv »

Ambar wrote:The break-India forces just like their extended left ecosystem worldwide will always use those sections of the society that are easily mobilized, well organized and gains instant sympathy, namely farmers & peasants, laborers, women, students and minorities. All internal threats from anti-India forces will come through these 5 groups, now and in future. A state like China can ruthlessly crush such groups because there is no fear of international condemnation, armed resistance groups forming or the fear of electoral politics. While India cannot act in a similar way, we can certainly deal with individuals (and not large groups) responsible for acting against the nation with iron gloves. I said this when Arnab Goswami was arrested and let to languish in jail for weeks on a ridiculous charge of boosting TRP ! If you cannot go after Uddhav Thackeray or Sharad Pawar that's fine and understandable, but go after crooks like Param Bir Singh and other commanders of anti-national brigade, make an example out of them. The center fired WB Chief Secretary, he was immediately rehired by WB govt. File criminal charges, pick him up from WB or wherever and put the fear of god in him. One of Rakesh Tikait's children is in Australia, go ahead and exit restriction on his passport if he is an Indian citizen and if he is not then pull his OCI/PIO/Visa. The same goes for the jihadists, student union leaders, those who actively assist external and internal enemies. Forget about center, even in BJP ruled states the situation is abysmal. After 2 days of outrage in Karnataka about Amulya Leona or Disha Salian and their ilk all is forgotten and forgiven, even before the ink dries on their bail order they are back on twitter/instagram continuing their anti-national propaganda. If the govt does not even go after 20 something college kids with no political backing, goodluck expecting them to go after individuals like Kaniah Kumar or Rakesh Tikait.
Ambar saar,
you are being quite pessimistic and impatient with what you want. Sometimes the "time to act" has to wait for the right time to come in as well.

Any other country like China crushing it has the covert and overt backing of the "media from the free democracies" due to business entities backing china and another being no credible opposition party in China. In such a scenario one can do what they want, didn't lee-Kwan Yiew of Singapore also do something similar that china does.

Arnab had cases foisted on him when the complaint was actually on a local Marathi channel and India Today channel (the one Rajdeep and rahul kanwal keep releasing pindi chana everyday). But it shows the shamelessness of the MVA govt where they can decide what they want and do and the media gives them the figleaf cover of secularism and gives a free pass. this has to be called out. if BJP does that they will be called as communal and Arnab will be called as their agent.

Mind you Arnab and Republic is not backed by BJP, but they have some biews aligned when it comes to external enemies and other topics like UCC. Maybe it was divine intervention that eventually got Arnab out or the invisible hand behind the scenes which ended up freeing him and all the concerned people are facing music now - Vaze, Parambir Singh, Anil deshmukh are all facing cases of their own with the fingers going all the way to the top of Pawar kaka or shriman Uddhav Thackeray. but since they are least bothered about perception they are continuing with the first Sena CM not withstanding.

As some other poster mentioned, on what basis is Rakesh Tikait son going to be arrested if he hasn't broken any laws. Targetting Rakesh Tikait will only make him a hero as the one targeted by the powerful and vengeful govt while he is only a poor farmer (no one will mention his personal fortune, auto showrooms and crop mills with all the money he has made). Rakesh Tikait running his mouth is more important for BJP's electoral prospects as it should scare people/get people angry to "not vote" for him and his comrades than taking strong action against him and making him a martyr. This applies to the same college students of the rest of India pointed in your post.

The BIF forces are organized very well outside India and we can't do anything till we increase our strength (of India's economy) or make their foot soldiers impotent in their designs (by continuing to win elections throughout). A person like Barkha who was caught in Nira Radia tapes should not have found any job, but she landed in Wapo or was it NYT? She was followed by another snake Rana Ayyub and later by Kunal Kamra and that lowlife Vir Das who is trying to get a gig of his own somewhere. there are dime a dozen unemployed people in the country who can be purchased, we can't do anything about it.

I make it a point to tell blind feminists/environmentalists the saga of "me too" hero Harvey Weinstein who was awarded of taking care of woman issues earlier, before the me too article exposed his predatory behavior. It is same with most high flying, Champaign sipping, cocktail/kittyparty activist journalists in the country.
KL Dubey
BRFite
Posts: 1758
Joined: 16 Dec 2016 22:34

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KL Dubey »

Primus wrote: So the only way to prevent such events in the future is to preempt them. If the Peacefuls know that they will face severe retaliation by an equally well armed and hostile Hindu crowd, they will not do it.
Good post. Responding to some specific points.
That is why people like Yati are saying what they are. That is the only way. No government - BJP or any other - will come to our rescue, they simply cannot and will not. It is up to us to protect what is ours. If the Hindu is simply going to look the other way and let 'somebody else' handle it, it will never stop. We need to learn a lesson from our own history and follow the example of the Ranas of Mewar. If the Hindu is not willing to risk his life, he might as well convert and become a Peaceful himself. For that is what is going to happen.
This may be part of what the Hindu sant samaj, maths, and sects are now coming together for, but they are not just reactionary forces. There is/will be also a concerted push to hold BJP candidates accountable in future elections if they want Hindu support. Yati et al spoke out publicly for the "on-the-ground kinetics", but the other part is also there.
Not defending Modi govt at all, I hold them responsible for many lapses, including the wretched treatment of the Hindus in WB after the elections.
Partly true..indeed, the BJP did not act. So how come the violence completely stopped. Something to think about....
BJP is just 'too polite' and 'too PC' to win some battles.
True, because it is not properly linked to the Hindu community and not held accountable enough in many areas of the country. When all the BJP, RSS, and hindu civil society/organizations all work together and exchange ideas and personnel, the skies will clear dramatically.

"Dharmaeva hato hanti, dharmo rakshati rakshitah". "Dharma" in India has never been just the responsibility of kings and rulers, and there is no reason why it should be now. It is obvious that all of society must be productively involved.
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8788
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by vijayk »

We need an eco-system of Temples/Sant Samaj/Hindu donations/Dharmic doctors/Dharmic schools or colleges or coaching all working together with help of Aadhar and Blockchain based co-ordination for services such as Lending,
We can also refer to Govt. services as Ayushman Bharat or Har Ghar jal
Last edited by vijayk on 11 Jan 2022 05:30, edited 1 time in total.
Locked