2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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venkat_kv
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by venkat_kv »

Pratyush wrote:
titash wrote:
Karan M-ji, does this mean that we will need (or should consider) the use of tactical nuclear weapons on the first day of the conflict? Isn't that the only logical way to avoid defeat? That is also how the Pakis hold us at bay, don't they? Isn't that also what prevents the NoKos from getting their arse kicked?
Yes, and the defence minister has already signalled a shift to this effect in the recent past.

But in addition to that, we have to think in terms of growing the IAF to 2000 to 2500 fighters and associated logistics assets. With the Navy growing from under 40 major combatants to 200 to 250.
Pratyush Ji,
this idea of yours is non-starter. If you can flesh it further rather than saying lets get 2000-2500 fighter planes or get to the US and say we will do anything just give us everything we need to fight the chinis. (i am not sure if it was you or somebody else in the miltary thread that gave the same kind of suggestions).

1. first part is the money it takes to fund these planes. planes alone won't do, you need to set up the support infra, weapons spares, so that is the money you need in addition to these planes.
2. we still don't have our own fighter engine. so we have to keep buying from the US or Russia or France for the time being. these countries will also take decisions for their self interest and not on our behalf.
3. what will be the cost of hiring pilots and weapon operators for these 2000-2500 planes. how much money in salaries, pensons will go for the same.

if we have money to buy 2000-2500 planes might as well get another sq or two of tejas with Su-30MKI and Mig-29 and be done with it and fund R&D of DRDO and fund the acquisition of AWACS and get the remaining navy requirements of submarines and surface combatants.

Besides we need to get our air defenses in order if we want to take down the chinese, simply getting 2000-2500 planes will do next to nothing except bankrupting the country.
Last edited by venkat_kv on 11 Jan 2022 05:44, edited 3 times in total.
KLNMurthy
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KLNMurthy »

Cyrano wrote:

Link https://youtu.be/VpNht4qlMF8

Great clarity. Video seems incomplete.

Deserves widespread circulation.
Hmmmmm.... PK is usually more focused than that, he is deflecting and reflecting the criticism that this Govt is not doing enough on the Dharmic Civilisational Agenda by saying the One Man (only? What happened to the other 302?) govt has internal and external constraints (which leader doesn't?! Heck even talibunnies do !!) and worse, he is putting it all back on those who made 303 possible and put One Man there and continue to support him. Yes, we are preoccupied with whatever lives we lead and what karma throws at us. But One Man and the rest 303/4 whatever don't seem to be _enough_ preoccupied with DCA they purport to be championing. Invading streets like A Community is an admission that our leaders with all state machinery cannot deliver despite being put in power and we hindu log have to start with bare hands from scratch. I don't get his logic :roll:
Not to claim credit or anything, but ever since Modi got elected in 2014, I have been saying that Modi himself is not going to change anything for Hindus, and it is up to Hindus themselves to figure out what they want for the 21st century, and organize around it; the only thing Modi can do is (unlike Sonia) to see to it that Hindus are not punished for asserting themselves. I was not aware of PK before this, watching the video I thought that he was expressing a similar idea, but in a more focussed and trenchant way than me (I would like to see the videos where he is even more focussed).

It is a bit like LBJ (or maybe JFK) telling African-American leaders, "you have to make it politically impossible for me to not pass Civil Rights legislation." It was very unreasonable and unfair to the Black people who helped put JFK / LBJ in office that they still had to go on the streets and suffer from police attacks etc. to get minimal human rights, but that's the reality of politics. Hindus' situation is similar.

Elected office in a democracy is not absolute monarchy that the leader can do everything through a sheer act of will. The people have to organize and drive the leader in a direction that they both want.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KLNMurthy »

Cyrano wrote:This is, nothing personal, a ridiculous argument that expects better results from a mob vs mob approach instead of the Govt doing its effing job as per law to implement and enforce the law. What Yogi is doing in UP is a start.

Namaz on streets is a simple traffic & law and order problem if dealt with correctly, immediately and consistently at local level.

Dealing with farmers protests on R-Day is the Govt job. If a huge Hindu mob landed there you think the bhang-charas doped tractor riding crowd would have simply gone home? If large Hindu crowds confronted Shaheen Bagh, they'd just have melted away? And why should a citizen - hindu or not, risk his life confronting anarchy by creating even more anarchy when the Govt is not acting?

It seems to defend Modi & BJP Govt we're conflating everything.
It's not a matter of mobs but of political organizing, creating a so-called "civil society" of Hindus, that constitutes a robust movement with a clear agenda. Demonstrating at street level is only one aspect.

One US example of one aspect of such a movement is the federalist society, which has achieved phenomenal success over time in dominating the judicial system. We need similar determined, coordinated, focussed and patient organizations to do a slow-motion takeover of the reins of power. RSS is one such, but it is clear that having only one organization is a prescription for ideological stultification--witness the clumsy adjustments and appeasements that Mohan Bhagwat has to make.
Last edited by KLNMurthy on 11 Jan 2022 06:01, edited 1 time in total.
KLNMurthy
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KLNMurthy »

Cyrano wrote:
The only thing Puspendra ji says is that Society can't expect to outsource its role to Govt or State. Just voting once in 5 yrs, is not enough and it can't absolve itself with what is happening around it.
The converse is also true, the state cant expect the public to do -certain- things when it's been given powers, means, reach and organisation, with a 5 year mandate.

Honestly PK is making a bunkum argument here. He is saying Hindus must adopt the aggressive, violent and brutal methods of other communities to achieve their asks if not it their fault, so they should lower expectations from the BJP Govt. Now how would that play out ? Hindu society should put pressure on the Govt, on lets say Freeing Temples from Govt control issue by holding mass dharnas and rallys, attack endowments staff, burn a few offices and kill a few state representatives from prominent temples like Tirupathi, attack the judge who said Srisailam temple must give vendor contracts to people from all religions to set up shops in the temple premises which is by definition a non-secular institution, and attack any non-hindu who sets up shop ? And going down that path will help advance dharmic agenda? :roll: :roll:
I didn't get the idea that Hindus must be aggressive etc. from PK's video. I thought he was talking about having an agenda, organizing around it, and being steadfast, patient, and be willing to pay a price in pursuing it. Seems self-evident to me, though it is rarely put in such terms by Hindus.

One difference I have with PK is that I would not adopt a hectoring, guilt-tripping tone. There are historical reasons why we are "like this only" and self-flagellation about it clearly doesn't work, as we have done plenty of it over the decades and even centuries. Better to accept ourselves and determine to take the next step from a positive place of self-respect.
Last edited by KLNMurthy on 11 Jan 2022 05:55, edited 1 time in total.
Primus
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Primus »

KL Dubey wrote:
Primus wrote: So the only way to prevent such events in the future is to preempt them. If the Peacefuls know that they will face severe retaliation by an equally well armed and hostile Hindu crowd, they will not do it.
Good post. Responding to some specific points.
That is why people like Yati are saying what they are. That is the only way. No government - BJP or any other - will come to our rescue, they simply cannot and will not. It is up to us to protect what is ours. If the Hindu is simply going to look the other way and let 'somebody else' handle it, it will never stop. We need to learn a lesson from our own history and follow the example of the Ranas of Mewar. If the Hindu is not willing to risk his life, he might as well convert and become a Peaceful himself. For that is what is going to happen.
This may be part of what the Hindu sant samaj, maths, and sects are now coming together for, but they are not just reactionary forces. There is/will be also a concerted push to hold BJP candidates accountable in future elections if they want Hindu support. Yati et al spoke out publicly for the "on-the-ground kinetics", but the other part is also there.
Not defending Modi govt at all, I hold them responsible for many lapses, including the wretched treatment of the Hindus in WB after the elections.
Partly true..indeed, the BJP did not act. So how come the violence completely stopped. Something to think about....
BJP is just 'too polite' and 'too PC' to win some battles.
True, because it is not properly linked to the Hindu community and not held accountable enough in many areas of the country. When all the BJP, RSS, and hindu civil society/organizations all work together and exchange ideas and personnel, the skies will clear dramatically.

"Dharmaeva hato hanti, dharmo rakshati rakshitah". "Dharma" in India has never been just the responsibility of kings and rulers, and there is no reason why it should be now. It is obvious that all of society must be productively involved.
The bolded part is so true, but thanks for pointing it out again.

There is a sea change happening all over. This much is obvious. I cannot recall when our Sant Samaj rose up in arms over anything except when a group of Sadhus and gau rakshaks protested and were allegedly fired upon in 1966. Even at the most egregious of events, the exodus of KPs from Kashmir or Godhra, I cannot remember our spiritual leaders making statements on national TV. In contrast, every local mullah speaks up for the Ummah every Friday.

I suspect it is because we do not really have a leadership the way Peacefuls and RoLers have. Their day to day life revolves around the mosque or church (parish) and thus the mullah/priest has much greater influence. We tend to do whatever and there is no well-defined 'leader of the Hindus'. Having said that, the Sant Samaj has for once become vocal about issues that they were silent for so long.

There is a much bigger factor - the Sangh. I truly believe they are far more influential than it is made out. They can be even more so if they choose to do so. Same is true for the VHP.

I'll stop here.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ritesh »

Aditya_V wrote:So we have listen to PK, advisor to Mamta , DMK and anti Hindu forces, that is like Pakistan listening to my advice, which always led to thier quickest extinction. He is just spreading fud.
Aditya ji, PK referred was Puspendra Kulshrestha who was one of the prominent and instrumental voices against article 370 and 35A. And who literally went around Bharatvarsh awakening people about it. He has continued his fight against and has been voicing his opinion on other matters of importance. Just search by his name, and you will find tons of videos of lectures he has done over last 5-7 yrs.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by nandakumar »

vimal wrote:^^ Even I've never understood how our judiciary is able to poke its nose into executive's domain all the time.
It is like this. As long as you can cloak any issue with an element of Life and Liberty guaranteed under the Constitution of which the Supreme Court is the ultimate guardian then the judiciary is in business. This in itself is not an issue. All of us understand that the idea of 'Life' and 'Liberty' in fairly straightforward terms. We understand that the State cannot simply put you behind bars because it doesn't like the way you dress or take away your life because it doesn't like the shape of your nose. But the Courts started assigning fancy requirements to it. So Life doesn't mean continued to be able to breathe but Life means living a life of 'dignity' in the conception of the judiciary. The moment you bring in an element of the notion 'dignity ' without which life is not life as such the possibilities for judicial intervention is limitless: such as Delhi residents must be able to breathe air with less than 60 ppm or residents of Aarey Milk Colony shouldn't have to do with fewer trees because a Metro Car Shed needs that land. Now throw into the mix the notion 'public interest ' you have a heady cocktail where an NGO in Lodhi Gardens, Delhi or a Colaba fatcat becomes eligible to challenge State actions.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KL Dubey »

KLNMurthy wrote:
Cyrano wrote:Mohan Bhagwat.
Bhagwat is walking back to a more solid footing now. At least there are not situations like with Sudarshan, who had to be pulled back from the brink of converting to the peaceful faith. Some mullahs claim he actually converted, but he did not.
arshyam
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by arshyam »

Lisa wrote:
Dilbu wrote:SC lead investigation means it is a stalled investigation with the report hopefully coming out in 2030. Judicial overreach is right up there in the list along with other major threats India is facing currently.
I do not live in India and therefore have only a limited understanding of how SC works. I would be of the opinion that SC ONLY interpret the law and accordingly pass judgement. Would anybody know of which laws interpretation allows them to establish an inquiry and if such a law does exist, can it be repelled? Furthermore, which law allows them to stop a governmental inquiry.

Just asking.
This one article gives it sweeping powers to review any issue:
Article 142 in The Constitution Of India 1949
142. Enforcement of decrees and orders of Supreme Court and unless as to discovery, etc ( 1 ) The Supreme Court in the exercise of its jurisdiction may pass such decree or make such order as is necessary for doing complete justice in any cause or matter pending before it, and any decree so passed or orders so made shall be enforceable throughout the territory of India in such manner as may be prescribed by or under any law made by Parliament and, until provision in that behalf is so made, in such manner as the President may by order prescribe
(2) Subject to the provisions of any law made in this behalf by Parliament, the Supreme Court shall, as respects the whole of the territory of India, have all and every power to make any order for the purpose of securing the attendance of any person, the discovery or production of any documents, or the investigation or punishment of any contempt of itself
https://indiankanoon.org/doc/500307/

This is another article that gives some more insights: https://blog.ipleaders.in/judicial-encr ... d-caution/
Aditya_V
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Aditya_V »

ritesh wrote:
Aditya_V wrote:So we have listen to PK, advisor to Mamta , DMK and anti Hindu forces, that is like Pakistan listening to my advice, which always led to thier quickest extinction. He is just spreading fud.
Aditya ji, PK referred was Puspendra Kulshrestha who was one of the prominent and instrumental voices against article 370 and 35A. And who literally went around Bharatvarsh awakening people about it. He has continued his fight against and has been voicing his opinion on other matters of importance. Just search by his name, and you will find tons of videos of lectures he has done over last 5-7 yrs.
Then he has not understood one major thing, the heart beat of BIF forces does not beat in India- it beats outside.

I dont whether you have seen old Tamil/Hindu movie, where an evil man abducts a woman and when the fights the villain is invincible, later it is learnt that the heart of the hero is a parrot in golden cage kept at another place, when the hero kills it the Villain dies.

Why do you think British MP's are jumping up and down on NFRA restrictions on their funding Indian NGO's? Why does BIF shutdown a significant portion(40%) of Indian copper production in TN and be cool with it- forcing us to import copper from Spain if we want to build railway dedicated Freight corridors?

Taking it out on the Indian Economy is shooting ourselves on our own foot, they want to do it cause they want to weaken it.

If you think SG makes decisions you are foolish, they are generals who take orders from Powers whose bases are outside India- so their strategy will not work for us.

Why do you think they never cover Rahul Gandhi's frequent trips to Europe - probably on French Rivera in Luxury Yachts with women or Pics of Priyanka Vadra wedding or holiday vacations- and they travel a lot?

BIF operates under the radar and knowing BJP a lot of it what they do will be below the radar- Media narrative is clever, they want us to behave they way they want to. Thats why clear F-16 losses are hidden, they whole thing is

Step 1- Brave Muslims, cunning weak Hindus - i.e Baniya ka dimag aur bhai ka Daring (heard this slogan anywhere)
Step 2- When the reaction ultimately comes - communal intolerant Hindus how can the Rest of world Not starve them? i.e A Dead Hindu is a good Hindu- thats how its built.

Think about what if like UPA days we are charged a Premium from International cartel of Oil suppliers which is then subsidized by the Indian Taxpayers, What tax we pay instead of provided gas to the poor, drinking water, Roads and Railway. in 2011 Railway capex was Rs 5,700, today is Rs 1.2 Lakh crore. We cant build this country in 5 or7 or 10 years. Layer by Layer we need fight this.

The strategy for all of this can't be built in front of media camera's and on open forums, but step 1 is stick to those who fight for us at least 20 years before we can start pealing layers upon layers of this ecosystem.

Why do think Media Narrative is built that Muslim women are being targeted by a "Thakur" guy with some APP( the only news on Al Jazeera) - do you it has nothing to with Yogi caste and Vote Bank fractures due to development and triple talak bills just before the UP elections?
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Cyrano »

Firstly:
But not all SG are BJP ruled and even there only few like Himanta and Yogi are fearless. Rest are just too busy with being politically correct.
I agree with that. BJP at centre and in many states is chickening out to do things as per law (as I said before Yogi and recently Hemanta, perhaps Bommai are exceptions), forget doing some undue favours to hindus. Because they already accepted the "Hindu Nationalist tag" as a stigma, and don't want to make it even more pronounced by acting as they should. And they deserve to be blamed and chastised for falling into that fallacy.

Secondly, Hindus coming out and showing strength in various situations - I agree that a lot more can be done by Hindu log which we don't due to tolerance, lethargy, indifference, insouciance, cowardice, fear... and the mere fact that there is a Hindu crowd is oftentimes enough to dissuade the peacefuls or others from provocative, illegal and immoral acts. We should get out and protest more, definitely. We should have taken out massive rallys in support of Kashmiri Pandits, Bangladeshi, Pakistani and Afghani Hindus, especially when they are murdered and their temples are targeted, like recent attacks on ISKON in BD. I personally consider Sihks not as a separate religion but as a part of Hinduism itself, all their Gurus without exception were Ram bhakts. So I'd raise up to defend them as well, as long as they are loyal to Bharat Maata (this should be needed to be said, but recent events have shaken my trust in them).

As many have said, when you do such Hindu rallies or protests today, even in BJP ruled states you can be stopped, arrested, in Non-BJP states, also beaten by the police and jailed. Which will inevitably lead to violence embolden other communities. Unless the Hindus escalate to post Godhra level against other communities and police etc do this all across the country, it will lead to incomplete results at best. What PK is suggesting show fo strength and threat of force by Hindu groups taking to streets may work tactically here and there but won't give major or lasting results. Lets say we take on all that, to achieve what? To free temples ? To stop public namaz ? To vacate occupied temple lands ? To stop illegal cattle smuggling? To reclaim temples on which mosques were built? To achieve what the Govt - especially this one - should be doing by default, on which its sometimes defaulting ?

So to sum up, visible, vocal hindu activism in large numbers for hindu causes is needed to establish a different equilibrium or entente with other religious communities. No one is asking the Govt to do that job, they cant. Its up to us.

But solving long standing systemic problems rooted in laws, administrative tangles, state control etc, dealing with civil, criminal law breaking, violence by any community according to law, and continually applying existing provisions to not erode the state's authority is and has to be the Govt's job. And its also the Hindu community's duty to put pressure on ANY Govt to do their job, including this one, and to collectively vote for what we consider as best the placed party to defend us and further our causes.

If Hindu society is being asked to substitute itself for the Govt to do the Govt's job, then whoever is defending the present Govt on these matters and asking for unquestioning support is sitting on so big a contradiction that they can't even see it.

The argument I would make is, if any party, any leader in power starts sincerely defending and delivering on Hindu Dharmic Civilisational Agenda, Hindus will jump up and rally behind and ahead and all around to support, strengthen and secure that party and that leader.

If Hindus as a community have to take all matters into their own hands, fine, we can do that as well. Then don't come around posturing as a party or as a leader of Hindu causes. We don't need you. You are just another political party, just another leader, and Hindus will vote for you or not as they see fit and take what comes.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by venkat_kv »

Aditya_V wrote:
ritesh wrote: Aditya ji, PK referred was Puspendra Kulshrestha who was one of the prominent and instrumental voices against article 370 and 35A. And who literally went around Bharatvarsh awakening people about it. He has continued his fight against and has been voicing his opinion on other matters of importance. Just search by his name, and you will find tons of videos of lectures he has done over last 5-7 yrs.
Then he has not understood one major thing, the heart beat of BIF forces does not beat in India- it beats outside.

I dont whether you have seen old Tamil/Hindu movie, where an evil man abducts a woman and when the fights the villain is invincible, later it is learnt that the heart of the hero is a parrot in golden cage kept at another place, when the hero kills it the Villain dies.

Why do you think British MP's are jumping up and down on NFRA restrictions on their funding Indian NGO's? Why does BIF shutdown a significant portion(40%) of Indian copper production in TN and be cool with it- forcing us to import copper from Spain if we want to build railway dedicated Freight corridors?

.....snip
Aditya_V Saar,
i think you are protesting a tad too much unfairly regarding a person like Pushpendra Kulshreshta. Most of the hindus are not aware of the threat that BIF possess. they are more worried about getting their work done and worry about their personal life and family. If and when an issue came up they are looking for a local leader to take care of them. Only recently with the pearls of wisdom from RaGa's mouth have a few hindus woken up from slumber. There are quite a few that are willing to forgive and vote the congoons back if they make all the right noises. Any issue of BIF is beyond their thought process as of now.

But before they are ready to fight for Hindu causes and be vary of BIF and conversion mafia they first need to be aware of their lives as a Hindu sanatani and the importance this land has from time immemorial in the past. that would entail people knowing what exactly they ought to do or are supposed to lead their life with a certain set of rules. think of Pushpendra kulshreshta in the role of what the late Rajiv Dixit used to do, trying to rally people about the land and the issues of ayurveda and hinduism and how corporates try to influence people selling mostly garbage and useless things through marketing.
venkat_kv
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by venkat_kv »

Cyrano wrote:Firstly:
But not all SG are BJP ruled and even there only few like Himanta and Yogi are fearless. Rest are just too busy with being politically correct.
I agree with that. BJP at centre and in many states is chickening out to do things as per law (as I said before Yogi and recently Hemanta, perhaps Bommai are exceptions), forget doing some undue favours to hindus. Because they already accepted the "Hindu Nationalist tag" as a stigma, and don't want to make it even more pronounced by acting as they should. And they deserve to be blamed and chastised for falling into that fallacy.

Secondly, Hindus coming out and showing strength in various situations - I agree that a lot more can be done by Hindu log which we don't due to tolerance, lethargy, indifference, insouciance, cowardice, fear... and the mere fact that there is a Hindu crowd is oftentimes enough to dissuade the peacefuls or others from provocative, illegal and immoral acts. We should get out and protest more, definitely. We should have taken out massive rallys in support of Kashmiri Pandits, Bangladeshi, Pakistani and Afghani Hindus, especially when they are murdered and their temples are targeted, like recent attacks on ISKON in BD. I personally consider Sihks not as a separate religion but as a part of Hinduism itself, all their Gurus without exception were Ram bhakts. So I'd raise up to defend them as well, as long as they are loyal to Bharat Maata (this should be needed to be said, but recent events have shaken my trust in them).

As many have said, when you do such Hindu rallies or protests today, even in BJP ruled states you can be stopped, arrested, in Non-BJP states, also beaten by the police and jailed. Which will inevitably lead to violence embolden other communities. Unless the Hindus escalate to post Godhra level against other communities and police etc do this all across the country, it will lead to incomplete results at best. What PK is suggesting show fo strength and threat of force by Hindu groups taking to streets may work tactically here and there but won't give major or lasting results. Lets say we take on all that, to achieve what? To free temples ? To stop public namaz ? To vacate occupied temple lands ? To stop illegal cattle smuggling? To reclaim temples on which mosques were built? To achieve what the Govt - especially this one - should be doing by default, on which its sometimes defaulting ?

So to sum up, visible, vocal hindu activism in large numbers for hindu causes is needed to establish a different equilibrium or entente with other religious communities. No one is asking the Govt to do that job, they cant. Its up to us.

But solving long standing systemic problems rooted in laws, administrative tangles, state control etc, dealing with civil, criminal law breaking, violence by any community according to law, and continually applying existing provisions to not erode the state's authority is and has to be the Govt's job. And its also the Hindu community's duty to put pressure on ANY Govt to do their job, including this one, and to collectively vote for what we consider as best the placed party to defend us and further our causes.

If Hindu society is being asked to substitute itself for the Govt to do the Govt's job, then whoever is defending the present Govt on these matters and asking for unquestioning support is sitting on so big a contradiction that they can't even see it.

The argument I would make is, if any party, any leader in power starts sincerely defending and delivering on Hindu Dharmic Civilisational Agenda, Hindus will jump up and rally behind and ahead and all around to support, strengthen and secure that party and that leader.

If Hindus as a community have to take all matters into their own hands, fine, we can do that as well. Then don't come around posturing as a party or as a leader of Hindu causes. We don't need you. You are just another political party, just another leader, and Hindus will vote for you or not as they see fit and take what comes.
Cyrano Saar,
i generally agree on most of the things you have said except for the last two paras. Atal ji's NDA 1 was a pretty decent govt when it came to reforms, they also had Murali Manohar Joshi trying to fix the HRD ministry and had daily tiffs with the communists who would cry hoarse about saffronization.

There is something called an "idea whose time has come". People who voted in 2004 felt that secularism and congoons would take good care of them. The same set of people voted these UPA guys back in 2009 even after the 26/11 incidents. But come 2014 things have changed for the better and the people threw out the previous dispensation and all the assorted nonsense of secularism. People even now are not bowing down to these Javed Akhters, Naseeruddin Shah types along with RaGa and Rajdeep bleating on Secularism and idea of India.

And coming to the highlighted points the BJP led NDA govt is moving on Hindu cultural issues one after the other, yet I don't see all the Hindus voting for the BJP, mamata and Kejri winning would belie the thought that Hindus will vote for anyone who takes care of their causes. There are still divisions between the Hindus and the Muslim vote bank is still in considerable strength, once we unify the Hindu block and break the muslim veto it should give govt a little breathing room to take some more steps.

Asking people to come and show their support or stand behind their govt. is a new phenomenon/requirement as the other side opposing has now come down to the streets and are daring the govt to shoot/lathi charge people to maintain law and order. they have taken a maximalist stance and you will draw blood if you fall in their trap. The govt doesn't want to give them a mini godhra, so that a few cottage industries can run when taking a step back can diffuse a situation.

and coming to the second highlighted point it is this very thought process that is the bane of our existence. we will do what we want and i will not stand or vote for the betterment of country or people. People saying we will vote NOTA or abstain from voting or voting for some educated nitwit that doesn't have the slightest clue about the issues on the street (i am looking at AAPians) will ultimately lead to downfall and ruin.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ritesh »

KL Dubey wrote:
KLNMurthy wrote:
Bhagwat is walking back to a more solid footing now. At least there are not situations like with Sudarshan, who had to be pulled back from the brink of converting to the peaceful faith. Some mullahs claim he actually converted, but he did not.
Dubey ji, are you sure?
Recently heard a YT discussion of Madhu Kishwar with Shankar Sharan and both were scathing in their remarks of RSS and Bhagwat and Modi govt. Link for reference: https://youtu.be/2yoJfHFkbGc
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ritesh »

Cyrano wrote:Firstly:
But not all SG are BJP ruled and even there only few like Himanta and Yogi are fearless. Rest are just too busy with being politically correct.
I agree with that. BJP at centre and in many states is chickening out to do things as per law (as I said before Yogi and recently Hemanta, perhaps Bommai are exceptions), forget doing some undue favours to hindus. Because they already accepted the "Hindu Nationalist tag" as a stigma, and don't want to make it even more pronounced by acting as they should. And they deserve to be blamed and chastised for falling into that fallacy.
Cyrano ji, agree with. I am no andhbhakt of bjp. But unfortunately it is our only hope at present times.
Cyrano wrote: Secondly, Hindus coming out and showing strength in various situations - I agree that a lot more can be done by Hindu log which we don't due to tolerance, lethargy, indifference, insouciance, cowardice, fear... and the mere fact that there is a Hindu crowd is oftentimes enough to dissuade the peacefuls or others from provocative, illegal and immoral acts. We should get out and protest more, definitely. We should have taken out massive rallys in support of Kashmiri Pandits, Bangladeshi, Pakistani and Afghani Hindus, especially when they are murdered and their temples are targeted, like recent attacks on ISKON in BD. I personally consider Sihks not as a separate religion but as a part of Hinduism itself, all their Gurus without exception were Ram bhakts. So I'd raise up to defend them as well, as long as they are loyal to Bharat Maata (this should be needed to be said, but recent events have shaken my trust in them).
This is need of the hour. And that is what PK says. Come out of your comfort zone and show your numerical strength at every opportunity.

Else we have to contend with anti caa farmer-broker strife etc griping the whole nation. Why bcos we the silent majority (incld myself) are happy with our own life and that's why we have lost our Grand narrative.
Cyrano wrote: As many have said, when you do such Hindu rallies or protests today, even in BJP ruled states you can be stopped, arrested, in Non-BJP states, also beaten by the police and jailed. Which will inevitably lead to violence embolden other communities. Unless the Hindus escalate to post Godhra level against other communities and police etc do this all across the country, it will lead to incomplete results at best. What PK is suggesting show fo strength and threat of force by Hindu groups taking to streets may work tactically here and there but won't give major or lasting results. Lets say we take on all that, to achieve what? To free temples ? To stop public namaz ? To vacate occupied temple lands ? To stop illegal cattle smuggling? To reclaim temples on which mosques were built? To achieve what the Govt - especially this one - should be doing by default, on which its sometimes defaulting ?
Nowhere PK says to be a mob baying for violence or blood. His only assertion is unless you come together and make your presence felt until then neither the govt judiciary administration or even 0.5 front will get the message.
Cyrano wrote: So to sum up, visible, vocal hindu activism in large numbers for hindu causes is needed to establish a different equilibrium or entente with other religious communities. No one is asking the Govt to do that job, they cant. Its up to us.
Yes. This is the point.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Lisa »

Arshyamji,

Thank you. Finally an answer that adds up.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Sachin »

arshyam wrote:
Article 142 in The Constitution Of India 1949
142. Enforcement of decrees and orders of Supreme Court and unless as to discovery, etc ( 1 ) The Supreme Court in the exercise of its jurisdiction may pass such decree or make such order as is necessary for doing complete justice in any cause or matter pending before it, and any decree so passed or orders so made shall be enforceable throughout the territory of India in such manner as may be prescribed by or under any law made by Parliament and, until provision in that behalf is so made, in such manner as the President may by order prescribe
Thanks for the reference to Article 142. I found the bolded part interesting (and important). At least from what I understand;
1. This article only states that Supreme court has the authority to pass any decree, but the enforcement of such decrees can only be done in a way prescribed by a law made by Parliament. For example; if Triple-Talaq was declared illegal by Supreme Court the enforcement of the punishment for doing the same was only possible after GoI passed a law to that effect.
2. If such a law does not exist till then it is the President of India who prescribes how such a decree can be enforced.

What if Hon. SC passes a decree, but neither GoI passes a law to get that decree executed on the ground? And GoI recommends the President not to prescribe any thing? How can such a decree be enforced/implemented on the ground?
Cyrano wrote:We should have taken out massive rallys in support of Kashmiri Pandits, Bangladeshi, Pakistani and Afghani Hindus, especially when they are murdered and their temples are targeted, like recent attacks on ISKON in BD
The decentralized way Hinduism is, this does not often work practically on the ground. A Hindu in Kerala may not even know what happened to Kashmiri Pandits, or Hindus in South India may not know about Hinduism as they have been practised in Northern India. There are some loose threads connecting every one up, but it is not a very strong bonding. And add to this the confusion and mayhem which can be spread by commies, liberals etc who find it easy to hit at a disorganized group. Things may be changing but it requires more efforts to consolidate Hindus across the country.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Pratyush »

venkat_kv wrote:

Pratyush Ji,
this idea of yours is non-starter. If you can flesh it further rather than saying lets get 2000-2500 fighter planes or get to the US and say we will do anything just give us everything we need to fight the chinis. (i am not sure if it was you or somebody else in the miltary thread that gave the same kind of suggestions).

1. first part is the money it takes to fund these planes. planes alone won't do, you need to set up the support infra, weapons spares, so that is the money you need in addition to these planes.
2. we still don't have our own fighter engine. so we have to keep buying from the US or Russia or France for the time being. these countries will also take decisions for their self interest and not on our behalf.
3. what will be the cost of hiring pilots and weapon operators for these 2000-2500 planes. how much money in salaries, pensons will go for the same.

if we have money to buy 2000-2500 planes might as well get another sq or two of tejas with Su-30MKI and Mig-29 and be done with it and fund R&D of DRDO and fund the acquisition of AWACS and get the remaining navy requirements of submarines and surface combatants.

Besides we need to get our air defenses in order if we want to take down the chinese, simply getting 2000-2500 planes will do next to nothing except bankrupting the country.
Venkat, I am thinking in terms of the next 25 to 30 years, Indian economy will easily be in the region of 15 to 17.5 trillion usd. It has already crossed 3.1 trillion usd in January 2022. With a substantially larger middle class and tax base from what we have today. Along with substantially lower population in need of welfare programs.

By 2030 we will be a 7.5 trillion dollar economy at minimum.

That being the case we can easily afford a program to build 150 to 200 combat aircrafts of different types per annum from 2030 onwards. Along with relevant support assets.

Provided they are domestic efforts with minimum of imported parts. Or even if a foreign partner is involved, it should be producing parts from Indian raw materials and Indian labour.

The engine issue should also be solved. With learnings from non afterburning Kaveri and HTFE25. Along with the joint efforts with one of the European partners by the same time frame.

The problem in my opinion is that we are projecting the future on the basis of what we don't have today. Not on the basis of what we will be having at that point of time.

The expectation that the problems of the past will remain in the future as well is something that I am not personally prepared to accept.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Karan M »

Lets be realistic. First think of convincing GOI to fund even 42 squadrons. Rest can all wait.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Pratyush »

Karan M wrote:Lets be realistic. First think of convincing GOI to fund even 42 squadrons. Rest can all wait.
Rest assured that the IAF will be asking for a larger force and will be recieving the budgetary support to build that force by 2024-25 at the latest. So that the process can start by 2030 and be finished by 2050.

The Army and the Navy will also be receiving the required support for a true 2 front war fighting capacity.

Modi or no Modi.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by IndraD »

SwamiPrasadMaurya, who resigned as a minister in the UP government, joined the #SamajwadiParty in the presence of its chief minister Akhilesh Yadav hours later https://www.hindustantimes.com/election ... 00134.html
He is not alone but will be followed by few MLAs who have been denied ticket this time. He quit BSP sometime back to join BJP. He said BJP is anti dalit hence he is quitting the party, apparently has been promised a plum post and loot khasot if Tonti comes in power
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by IndraD »

Admins:
is there a possibility for separate thread for elections cos there are many topics in this thread, from dog problem to Hindu renaissance (all important perhaps) ?
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Ambar »

CAA rule making deferred again. With 24 months to go in the current term i doubt if the govt will form the rules until the next general elections. Really question the wisdom why was it brought in haste which rejuvenated the BIF ecosystem and gave them plenty of arsenal when there was no clear intent on applying the act. They could have just improved the administrative process and cutdown the wait time immigrant hindu/jains/sikhs face after fleeing persecution from neighboring islamic countries.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by sanjaykumar »

The 42 s squadron number dates to the 1960s.

One can argue, as was done in the west even earlier, that with missiles, drones, targeting technology, electronic disruption of networks that this is no longer the paradigm.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ramana »

ritesh wrote:
KL Dubey wrote:
Bhagwat is walking back to a more solid footing now. At least there are not situations like with Sudarshan, who had to be pulled back from the brink of converting to the peaceful faith. Some mullahs claim he actually converted, but he did not.
Dubey ji, are you sure?
Recently heard a YT discussion of Madhu Kishwar with Shankar Sharan and both were scathing in their remarks of RSS and Bhagwat and Modi govt. Link for reference: https://youtu.be/2yoJfHFkbGc
Madhu Kisawar has unrequited aspirations from BJP. So hardly unbiased opinion.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ramana »

Ambar wrote:CAA rule making deferred again. With 24 months to go in the current term i doubt if the govt will form the rules until the next general elections. Really question the wisdom why was it brought in haste which rejuvenated the BIF ecosystem and gave them plenty of arsenal when there was no clear intent on applying the act. They could have just improved the administrative process and cutdown the wait time immigrant hindu/jains/sikhs face after fleeing persecution from neighboring islamic countries.
CAA rulemaking impacts NE. So need to wait till it is sorted out.
Relax the govt that passed it will implement it equitably.
BTW CAA is for earlier immigrants. It is not for current immigrants.
So please don't put all in one basket and make judgments.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ramana »

IndraD wrote:Admins:
is there a possibility for separate thread for elections cos there are many topics in this thread, from dog problem to Hindu renaissance (all important perhaps) ?
Sure start one with title State Elections 2022
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ramana »

Pratyush wrote:
Karan M wrote:Lets be realistic. First think of convincing GOI to fund even 42 squadrons. Rest can all wait.
Rest assured that the IAF will be asking for a larger force and will be recieving the budgetary support to build that force by 2024-25 at the latest. So that the process can start by 2030 and be finished by 2050.

The Army and the Navy will also be receiving the required support for a true 2 front war fighting capacity.

Modi or no Modi.
If no Modi they won't get anything except scams and bribes.
Don't be so forgetful of the past.
If given a choice IAF will demand Starfighter from Star Wars and bankrupt the nation.
And will use those for flypasts and elephant walks in times of drought.
It is IA that's facing the Chinese in mountain heights and cold weather.
yet IAF was wasting precious water for elephant walks during drought and pandemics to boost their morale!!!
Even now their master plan is to bankrupt the country with mythical 42 squadrons.
BTW note how the IN was quietly augmented in 2021 without fanfare or scrapping old ships before new ships come in line.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Ambar »

Uttar Pradesh Minister Swami Prasad Maurya has resigned from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ahead of the Assembly election which is to be held next month.

He has joined Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party. In his resignation letter, Maurya listed “negligent attitude towards Dalits, backwards, farmers, unemployed youth, small and medium businessmen” as the reason for his departure.

He is MLA from Padrauna seat in UP.

Akhilesh Yadav shared a post on Twitter with a photo of himself and Maurya saying:

"Warm welcome and greetings to the popular leader who fights for equality and social justice, Swami Prasad Maurya ji and other leaders and workers who have accompanied him to the SP. There will be a revolution for social justice, there will be change in 2022".

Maurya had quit the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) to join the BJP. He has also resigned as the Minister of Labour, Employment & Coordination to quit the BJP and finally join the Samajwadi Party.

Sections of the media have mentioned in reports that he "was demanding another seat in the upcoming elections for which the party was not ready, and therefore, he resigned from the government."

UP Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya appealed to Swami Prasad Maurya, as evident in a post on Twitter, to hold discussions on his decision.

Keshav Prasad Maurya said in the post:

"I don't know the reasons behind the resignation from respected Swami Prasad Maurya, but I appeal to him to sit and hold discussions on the matter, decisions taken in a hurry often prove to be wrong."

Another BJP MLA, Roshan Lal Varma, has reportedly announced that he will leave the BJP at an 'appropriate time', reports say.

Varma reportedly came to Raj Bhawan carrying Swami Prasad Maurya's resignation letter. This report mentions that Varma said that Maurya was unwell and hence he had brought the resignation of Maurya.

Varma is quoted as saying: "I will decide after Maurya's resignation is accepted. About other MLAs, you will come to know by January 14."

Varma is a three-time MLA. Sections of the media have termed the exit of Swami Prasad Maurya as a "jolt to the BJP".
There has long been news of factionism within BJP in UP. MLAs used to making Rs 200 cr to Rs 500 cr per term depending on the portfolio are now having to make do with a much smaller piece of the pie thanks to Yogi Adityanath's no nonsense approach to governing. Remember that in 2021 there were rumors that many BJP MLAs wanted a different CM face in UP, they went as far as to spread all is not well between Yogi and Modi. I hope BJP mobilizes every last karyakarta to try and wrestle some of these seats, western UP is the key as RLD , Rakesh Dakait and SaPa try to stitch the muslim-yadav-jaat vote bank.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by nachiket »

Pratyush wrote:
Karan M wrote:Lets be realistic. First think of convincing GOI to fund even 42 squadrons. Rest can all wait.
Rest assured that the IAF will be asking for a larger force and will be recieving the budgetary support to build that force by 2024-25 at the latest. So that the process can start by 2030 and be finished by 2050.

The Army and the Navy will also be receiving the required support for a true 2 front war fighting capacity.

Modi or no Modi.
This has been discussed in the Mil forum earlier I believe. Where does this kind of confidence come from? IAF has been languishing at around 30 squadrons for years now and there are no acquisitions being planned right now that can conceivable increase this number at all. The reasons are complex and although lack of money is probably the most important reason it is certainly not the only one. The IAF decision making about acquisitions has been flawed as well along with usual MoD incompetence and delays. These pie in the sky expectations of 2000+ fighters are not even remotely realistic. Downright ridiculous I would say.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by disha »

I am surprised that people here are surprised that there will be desertions, infighting, back-stabbing during ticket distribution.

UP and to a large degree, India is still a feudalistic society, and CONgoons followed by Sa(r)Pa and BaSPa kept it as such. Elections are to ensure that there is equal opportunity to loot for a bunch of feudal factions who come together to the power. A particular family is chosen so that all rewards are distributed appropriately.

But the problem with BJP is it is not dynastic and not feudalistic and has a larger vision.

And as the saying goes, Power is power. And Modi-Shah-Yogi know that.

Here is what two articles need to be read.

First, post UP elections, if Yogi returns to power, several of items like CAA etc can be brought forward. If keeping them in abeyance helps us reduce noise in elections, so be it. https://swarajyamag.com/politics/modi-g ... for-caa-20

I follow a more pragmatic approach as above. No need to do mudimustrezine because my particular itch has not been scratched*

The second one is pointing out with data that the hue and cry for elections as super spreaders is raised by liberandus who want to see mudi defeated. https://swarajyamag.com/ideas/blaming-e ... y-thinking

Of course, TN government targeted Hindu festivals.

* My particular itch that really needs to be scratched and for which mudi must indeed rezine is to give 5 lashes to anyone who is trashing. 10 lashes to anyone spitting pan. 50 lashes to anyone who goes open defecation in urban area where clean public toilets are available and 100 lashes to builders for not providing clean public toilets.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by V_Raman »

Didnt we already agree that India is going through a french revolution of sorts - moving from feudal setup to a true republic? That is what MAD is trying to do? The fight is going to get more ugly onlee...
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by srikandan »

https://twitter.com/Anurag_Office/statu ... 5556232193

The execrable loser Devdutt Pattnaik is a headliner for National Youth Day. :roll:
Last edited by srikandan on 12 Jan 2022 09:30, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Pratyush »

Nachiket,

Things happen in India when they must. Not before.

We are fast reaching a stage where the political establishment will be faced with a choice. Either pay tribute to PRC. Or build up the defence capacity of the nation. In order to not pay the tribute.

I am leaning on India deciding to build the defence capacity of the nation. The time for decision will be in the next few years. Between 2024-25 to 2028-29. Any time later, will just be too late.

PRC assertiveness against India in the north is a good thing for us. If they had any brains, they would not have done that. India would have plodded along and PRC by 2035 would have been in a position to clobber a 30 squadron airforce and then deal with the Indian army. Thee way Indian army dealt with Pakistan army during Kargil.

But now, all bets are off. India is uniquely focussed on PRC as an enemy. The military establishment I am quite sure is undertaking a set of studies to find out what is the capability required to deal with a PRC of 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050. That assessment should to be getting completed in the near future.

The results of that process will be shared with the government in due course of time.

That is why I am so confident of the capability build up during the time frame I am thinking.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Pratyush »

Ramana,

I understand everything you are saying. But I am saying that PRC with its stupidity has changed the game. More of the same will just not do. IAF will have to come off its high horse. In the next few years.

Paradoxically, any hope that US will be a reliable allied state is also dependent on India's growth as a military power.

If US thinks that India can clobber the PRC/TSP combo, that PRC will not be able present a threat to US interests, before or after a major clash with India. It will stand by India.

If US thinks that India will not be able to stand up to PRC/ TSP combo, and that it will have to do heavy lifting just to hold the line. It will make a seperate peace with PRC. Returning to the G2 construct.

Every angle I am approaching 2050 from, requires a major buildup of India military capacity.

If we don't do that, we will be left standing alone paying tribute to PRC for the next few centuries.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Manish_P »

^ Pratyush ji, with all your angles you have perhaps missed that the Congress UPA can simply buckle under pressure (or with the greed of the lucre) to accede to the demands of the PRC (who will be smart enough to do it salami style)... MoUs and peace parks and what not.

With a compliant media, academia and judicial ecosystem already in place from decades, the most we will be able to do is rant on social media ( where also the leftist ecosystem calls the shots).

In your earlier post you state that India is now focused on PRC... the reason is the current dispensation awareness that it is the bigger threat. It does not mean that we are not doing all we can to squeeze the jihadis (diplomatically, economically) on the western flank.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Pratyush »

I had thought about that angle. But I am coming to the conclusion that INC can no longer afford to carry RaGa and Vadra combination. UP and Punjab results will force a decision one way or another.

With the result that INC either disintegrates with elements merging into TMC and NCP.

Or the party rebuilds itself. Into an inclusive cadre based truly secular entity.

That leaves Mamta as a serious challanger. She is truly a frightening alternative and for the moment I don't think that she has pan India appeal to be a national leader.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KL Dubey »

Pratyush wrote:I had thought about that angle. But I am coming to the conclusion that INC can no longer afford to carry RaGa and Vadra combination. UP and Punjab results will force a decision one way or another.

With the result that INC either disintegrates with elements merging into TMC and NCP.

Or the party rebuilds itself. Into an inclusive cadre based truly secular entity.

That leaves Mamta as a serious challanger. She is truly a frightening alternative and for the moment I don't think that she has pan India appeal to be a national leader.
If INC folds, Rahul has a very good position available for him in Europe:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duke_of_Gand%C3%ADa

The position of "Duke of G@ndia" is currently vacant and is held by a female as placeholder (how Freudian!). The title fits Pappu on all counts.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Manish_P »

Pratyush wrote:I had thought about that angle. But I am coming to the conclusion that INC can no longer afford to carry RaGa and Vadra combination.....
...

That leaves Mamta as a serious challanger. She is truly a frightening alternative and for the moment I don't think that she has pan India appeal to be a national leader.
INC without the Gandhis don't really have anyone with pan India appeal either... they may just foist someone to be the face (no need for a voice either - remember MMS)

In any case Gujral, Devegowda,.. didn't have Pan India appeal but still got to become PMs of coalitions. Some of them caused huge damage to our military strength - either in their misguided delusion of peace or pain lethargy.

India of that time was economically more at par (as compared to the huge overmatch now) with Pak (thanks to 4 fathers) and more evenly matched with China (which was just taking off).. and yet at that time our squadron strength, our carriers, our tanks were comparatively better matched with our adversaries.

And we have seen in the case of Maharashtra, what happens if the situation is really desperate and their survival is in question. The crooks will find a way to come together to grab the loot... they won't even need a push or incentives from the external BIF forces to do so.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Cyrano »

Keeping Congoons out at state and center is a must. Congress party and its leaders are unable to fill their coffers since their in power footprint has shrunk dramatically, so cant get haftas, bribes or donations like before. Plus Modi has starved them of sources of illegal funds within India and from abroad with a lot of different measures. God forbid they get into power again in any new state or at center, the loot of India will be unimaginable even by British rule standards.

Some of the vitriol directed unfairly at Modi because the press has no big or small scams to write about for the past few years. So the criticize GoI itch has to be satisfied by some other means - some vague report from Europe on corruption, or US on religious freedom or some other report on development parameters, specious study on cover death numbers... what ever they can lay their hand on. SC also feeds them with inane comments from time to time.

In some ways, increased media vitriol is a sign that they Govt is doing the right things for the people. And thats why English media which has the additional distinction of imported wokism is less and less viewed as a trustworthy source of news & opinions. They're committing slow harakiri !
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