2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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sanjaykumar
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by sanjaykumar »

Conservation of food in storage and transportation will accomplish much without degradation of the environment.

It will also save panjab youth from themselves.
hanumadu
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by hanumadu »

Any excess rice paddy can be used to produce ethanol. Depending on what the price of ethanol is, it's not a financial loss to the government as far as money is concerned.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 823686.ece
‘A stabilising measure’
This year, the Centre had committed for about three lakh tonnes of rice procured by the Food Corporation of India for ethanol production. However, only 78,000 tonnes would be lifted by six distilleries, said Mr. Pandey. The use of rice was necessary as a stabilising measure in a transitory phase until maize production could be sufficiently increased. Maize produced a higher output of fuel at a lower cost, also leaving a byproduct, which is used for poultry and cattle feed. Around 100 crore litre grain-based distillery capacity was being created, he stated.

The Food Secretary noted that the FCI had 30 lakh metric tonnes of rice in its warehouses, and the ongoing and upcoming procurement was expected to ramp up that stock even further, dismissing concerns that a grain procured for food security purposes was being diverted for ethanol production. The Centre has been distributing additional free grain to ration card holders as COVID-19 relief, but has refused to universalise its public distribution system during the pandemic.

Although the FCI’s economic cost for procured rice was Rs. 37 a kg, it offered the grain at a subsidised cost of ₹20 to both ethanol producers as well as to the State governments and civil society groups looking to distribute food to vulnerable communities. Mr. Pandey said the subsidy provided to ethanol manufacturers would be accounted for separately from the Centre’s food subsidy.
I think excess grain production is not much of an issue, but food security of a 1.3 billion people is.
Of course, there are other issues like eliminating middle men, farmers getting better prices, ground water issues, degradation of soil, parali burning etc.
Karan M
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Karan M »

Prem Kumar wrote:
Karan M wrote:
All these pithy quotes are very well. They sound suitably ominous but the reality is different.

When China decided to take advantage of us, that too during the worst phases of the pandemic, the leadership didnt buckle and instead, deployed the AF. We are toe to toe with them in almost all key sectors. And that has prevented war so far, and even if it does arrive we are reasonably prepared for it.

The Chinese and the Pakistanis know this leadership isnt a pushover - which is why they are seeking to foment internal strife, and we are not doing the Uighur or Balochistan approach, as the other two have. We know the long term price the society pays and the consequences (internal and international issues) that will result. Instead we are adopting a variety of tricks which may appear concessionary but don't result in a raging, open conflict that has literally turned Pak into a hell-hole and China into a police state.
Don't dismiss it so glibly.

The withdrawal of Farm Laws is a mistake by Modi. Its not a fatal one, but its a big one nevertheless. As I posted above, it signals weakness. He has to give out other signals to recoup. The good news is that we are a long way from 2024. But UP 2022 is round the corner.

Modi has done a great job of managing external enemies. But is deer-in-the-headlights when it comes to street level, persistent protests of the CAA/FarmLaw kind. Its a new form of internal warfare (Urban Maoism 2.0) and needs its own playbook to deal with. We don't seem to have one - yet

Constructive criticism of him & his administration at this juncture is important. Modi & his many supporters ought to realize that the only true, well-meaning opposition are his supporters who demand more of him, but for whom country/civilization come before the party/man they support
What you have posted from Sareen is actually glib commentary about how something is a mistake, this, that and so forth plus your commentary agreeing with it. At best, its opinion driven by your fears about the political impact of these laws. The fact of the matter is none of us are dealing with these issues on a daily basis to make the kind of assertions you are so confidently making. I have posted facts about the costs of taking hardline positions, without thinking through the decisions which are based on verifiable facts as was observed during the IG era. Ironically, after posting glib commentary from Sareen, a one liner even, you accuse me of doing the same, wherein I provide actual reasoning explaining why Sareen is full of over the top hyperbole in this case.

If Modi was so incompetent at dealing with urban Maoists as you so allege, where are all the umpteen terror attacks and Maoist takeovers - i dont see any? In fact, I see the urban Maoists seething impotently in op-eds and the media (their last hangout, which more and more seems a deliberate play to let them rant, for India to brag about its democratic credentials). I loathe the fact that the Urban Maoists still have that space even in public discourse. Its influential and still allows them to exert outsized influence. But they have a 70 yr old ecosystem backing them and clearly, the GOI only has so much leeway to operate in. However, the real ones who tried something are actually far more dangerous, are in jails, fighting countless UAPA cases or hiding out in the jungles. Last week itself, the Maha police knocked out 26 odd of them.

There's also a big difference between constructive criticism and idle, opinion based bashing. We have a democratic right to engage in the latter, no doubt, but lets not even pretend that he needs lessons from us and the rest of the keyboard warrior gang on "country/civilization" coming first.

This is a man who fought off all sorts of motivated court cases and survived (did you or me go and save him?), managed to run a state successfully for multiple terms, fought his way to PM and doing what he can for the past seven years against the most vicious kind of opposition. He needs lessons from us on politics or patriotism or what not?

He gets tons of classified reports on the nature of threats and has the sense to pick and choose on how he responds. Meanwhile he also has access to the who's who of international decision makers and can make out what their pressure points and leverage wrt India are. He has to navigate all this.

He hasn't let his ego get in the way when he meets those same western decision makers who were attacking him, denying him representation, lobbying for his incarceration, and that is so he can get them to recognize India as an alternative investment decision vs China. All this while also imposing a FCRA lock wherever possible, taking a hard line against Pak and China to whatever extent, and trying his best to run a "Make in India campaign" which no prior Govt had even bothered with.

Plus, being a person who has come up from extreme poverty, has also been delivering on RKM schemes, sanitation, infrastructure, MIC and industrial development and has not compromised on any of our core requirements whether it be dealing with the Maoists, Pakistanis and the Chinese. Incidentally, the RKM schemes above also ensure a significant constituency votes for the BJP and also reduce the leverage of the BIF gang who were using extreme poverty as a means to spread their influence.

In the meantime, he has delivered RJB to the public (lets not even pretend it would have happened in any other Govt), launched a Ganga cleaning plan - our most holy of rivers and sacred to us, which no Govt even bothered with, and is fixing one of our most revered sites. He has made being civilizational in the public space OK for a PM, something bitterly loathed by the BIF gang and attacked by the whole LeLi gang in India and abroad. Has he backed down? No. He continues doing so.

And you want us to give him "gyaan" on country and civilization coming first? This when Doval openly stated in a recent talk that wars are being fought at the discourse level and are not merely about physical force? So, do you think he doesnt know this?

He has *chosen* not to beat up publicly on the protesters, knowing the schisms that exist and the eager desire of a huge section of the international community to put us in the same group as the PRC with their Uighurs. Agree/disagree, but it was a hard decision made on considering factors which went beyond optics! We know what Indira did and what it resulted in.

Yet, its not appeasement either, as those who committed violence on the 26th have been prosecuted which is being sabotaged as the Delhi prosecution, under another political party is refusing to cooperate (division of powers as the state prosecutor is under that groups thumb) and the other state from which they originally were is providing fiscal support. Would you have him dismiss both state Govts and then spend his limited time fighting those cases or all the other items? Instead, they are trying to get the cases transferred out of Delhi.

Lets be clear here, you think the withdrawal of the farm laws signifies weakness because you've created this mental construct of your ideal leader being some sort of Alpha Male swinging around the jungle, beating up Pakistan via Balakot, winning elections because of that, never taking a step back to re-assess etc, otherwise "it signals weakness" and you have a theory about hierarchy.

That's how you think Indian elections work. Its your opinion that such a leader has put "country/civilization first" or will win, unlike Modi.

However, I suspect you really need to rethink your assumptions and model. The people whom you think will revel in voting for such a "strong man" are far fewer then you expect. And its hardly like he needs us amateurs to tell him about optics and the virtues of a strong man image either. He's been playing chess, taking calculated positions and doing what he can within his constraints and the actual power available to him. He is not willing to engage in high risk activities unless they are absolutely essential (Balakot, 370 before Taliban takeover etc).

And letting a pointless situation fester only creates more opportunities for the BIF to exploit. In any endeavour, you try something, if it doesn't work out the way you want, you drop it, re-assess, try something else and move on. You don't stay and reinforce something that gives you limited gains for huge downsides. Such a leader would be a megalomaniac who for the sake of his/her strong(wo)man image, ends up creating a huge problem. We've been down that path. I grew up in that era. Thanks, but no thanks.

If Modi were to do what you suggest, I deeply suspect we would be worse off. He gets far more data than anyone here on what is functioning and what is not. For him to come on TV and state that he is withdrawing the laws for the sake of the "nation" while he did what he could for the farmers, is not a small effort. He knew the knock to his personal image etc and chose to go down that path.

The right thing to do in that situation is to analyze what led him down that path, not sit and offer pointless advice about how he needs us to tell him about "country and civilization" etc. If anything, we should have the common sense to realize what we are up against if he is not around and somebody like Pappu were at the helm.

We have to accept the fact that there are things at a societal level the BJP has to manage with. There are several laws I disagree which are discriminatory or ineffective, but BJP cant touch them or has actually supported them, because politics. That's going to take generations to fix.

Yes, there are things he and the party can improve no doubt. Their information /communication methods need far more effectiveness for instance. But its hardly like the above decision was taken on the spur of the moment and not carefully thought out. Analyze that, figure out what made such a decision be taken. Agree/disagree with that decision.

Lets have some sensible posts for a change rather than constant complaining that things are not perfect and we didnt get an easy win.
banrjeer
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by banrjeer »

chandrasekaran wrote:What if intelligence inputs clearly indicated a congi/aap sweep in Punjab ? The next 5 years they will do everything to undermine our territorial integerity. Perhaps this was announced so that the incumbent govt. will not have this raison d'être to fan large scale dissent and create nighmarish scenario's. Bottomline, justified or not, the unrest and mistrust among common sikhs must have been real.
There was some contention about BSF deployment
Pratyush
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Pratyush »

Ambar wrote:What a precarious position Punjab is stuck in ! Unless Captain manages to orchestrate a massive exodus from INC, PJ's future CM will either be a closet Pakistani or a open Khalistani !
Captain will not be able accomplish much. The last 18 months have vitiated the atmosphere too much.

Modi by bending might have averted this flashpoint.

But when you have a population that has reached this point. It's only a matter of time before the flash point is reached.
SBajwa
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by SBajwa »

closet pakistani like Sidhu will be a very bad situation for India. 5-10 KM buffer zone from the border of Pakistan should be created right away to preemptive any such situations.

Sandeep
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by vera_k »

I have no insight into what the game plan is, but a Punjab that remains primarily agrarian is a Punjab that will be poorer compared to other industrializing states each passing year. Yet, Punjab's fertility rate is way below replacement level, and it is possible that Punjab will be a Hindi or Bengali (i.e. Bangladeshi) speaking state in a generation, simply because agriculture is a labor intensive process and labor will need to be imported. So a generational pass on farm reforms for Punjab in the face of strident opposition would not be a bad idea.
vijayk
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by vijayk »

https://www.opindia.com/2021/11/chhatti ... t-convert/
Chhattisgarh: 1,200 families revert to Hinduism under Ghar Wapsi Abhiyan, BJP leader welcomes them by washing their feet
Anil, an aide of Prabal Pratap, said that so far, under Jashpur Prince's leadership, they have converted over 14,000 Christians back to Hinduism.

A two-day program was organized under Ghar Wapsi Abhiyaan (Operation Ghar Wapsi) in block Khuntapani, Pathalgaon, district Jashpur, Chhattisgarh, on November 19 and November 20 under the leadership of Prabal Pratap Singh Judev, State Secretary, Bharatiya Janata Party. Prabal Pratap, son of late Dilip Singh Judev, is the prince of the Jashpur Royal Family.
A total of around 1,200 people from approx 400 families reverted to Hinduism from Christianity. 100 families were local, while 300 families were from Basna, Saraipali. Reports suggest these families had converted three generations ago, owning to their poor economic and social status. The missionaries had lured them to convert under the pretext of financial support and better social life. A day before the program, Arya Samaj had organized a Kalash Yatra in which a large number of women participated. It was followed by a bike rally that was attended by over 300 youth who chanted slogans of “Jai Shri Ram”.
The scum BIF opens up new front everyday. We wear and bangles and do rona-dhona.

We need to open up this front. If these numbers go up in large scale many common people will be happy. They can't express openly because Hindus are made to feel guilty for everything.

This operation must be scaled up 1000% and that should include Sikhs too
Prem Kumar
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Prem Kumar »

Karan M: I am not going to do a point by point discussion on your lengthy post. You think Modi did the right thing by repealing the farm laws. I don't. You bring in history/context in which to see this and net-net why this is not such a bad thing. I disagree with this approach - where criticism is warranted, it must be provided to keep a good Government honest. You have some views on what you think is my mental-model of a leader & what in your opinion a leader ought to be doing. Once again, my views are different from yours.

Lets just agree to disagree.
V_Raman
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by V_Raman »

This govt has passed bills but not notified them on many items - CAA, Labour reforms, small savings and now farm laws repeal. They better be careful ....
KLNMurthy
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KLNMurthy »

Karan M wrote:
KLNMurthy wrote: Maybe I live in a cesspool too, but I feel very pessimistic right now. I would love to get a nuanced explanation that has to do with national interest, other than just a surrender to BIF.

Until I do, pessimism = realism for me.
Relax.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thehin ... 8.ece/amp/
The explanation given in the Hindu article is that it is a strategic move:

1. sacrifice the farm laws to safeguard UP

2. cool down the drift of Sikh public opinion towards Khalistan

Plausible explanations on the surface but in my view,

1. Unlikely to have much helpful impact on UP polls outcome. Going back to the WB loss, the UVP for BJP was never the caste equation, it was the image of strength, confidence, incorruptibility and competence. If you are BJP, you can’t safeguarded UP election by undermining the strength & confidence elements. I really don’t see how UP prospects are improved by this decision.

2. Maybe the extent of Khalistan penetration came as a surprise and it was felt urgent pre-emptive action was required. But it shouldn’t have been a surprise. Even the party’s rhetoric played up the Khalistan aspect. Maybe it was thought to be only a propaganda point, and imagined that sikh-on-the-street would be swayed towards a nationalist stand by highlighting the Khalistan danger. If they thought that, that is itself a problem, it’s a very amateurish and ill-informed line of thought. For one thing, they didn’t understand the increased sophistication level of Khalistani propaganda among the current generation, the offspring of the’80s Khalistanis. Khalistanism seems by far the default outlook among Sikhs in US /Canada, going by the prevalence of the Khalistan flag.

3. The softer, kindlier projection—the astonishing begging of forgiveness by Modi etc.—may temporarily take the wind out of the sails of those who chant that Modi’s India is harsh, and reduce that particular flavor of noisemaking for the moment, but is not going to change anything substantive.

2 (pre-empting the Khalistan penetration) is the most plausible reason for me: like a doctor who has misjudged a cancer and allowed it to grow to a lethal stage, Modi has taken an urgent but belated action for national security. That may work if (keeping with the cancer analogy) the doctor puts the full focus of his energy and intelligence on confronting and defeating the cancer. But the advanced stage of the problem and belated nature of the response means there are far fewer options going forward and far fewer chances of prevailing.

IMO if the Khalistan threat is serious (and I don’t doubt it is) the better option would have to make a series of clear public statements addressing the sikh aam janata directly, appealing to their patriotism, at the same time stating unequivocally that any and all Khalistani or other anti-national tendencies will meet a ferocious and deadly state response, and people should think hard before throwing in with the Khalistani cause.

I don’t see how chess moves with complete opaqueness of intent will serve the BJP or the nation at this point. It is as though Modi sarkar is afraid of openly confronting the anti-nationalism. I haven’t seen any clear statement from Modi on the subject, either during this agitation or during the CAA agitation—only throwaway provocative statements from AS, Delhi BJP chief, and further downstream, each one more amateurish than the previous one.

I think what troubles me the most is the seemingly furtive mughalai zenana-intrigue nature of the conduct of national security policy. And our acceptance of this furtiveness as the norm—as though the people of the country are children who will be paralyzed with fear when parents tell them there is a danger. We are accepting and even expecting to be treated in this way, which completes the cycle of childishness. If Indian citizenry is strong enough to openly and transparently face down covid under Modi’s leadership, it is strong enough to face down this threat also.

(We shouldn’t of course demand sharing of specific threat intelligence, but we should certainly expect transparency in national security at a policy level—just saying that the threats a, b, and c are there and they will be put down by every means necessary regardless of international opinion;which we respect blah blah), and Indians who sign on with such forces should expect to be negatively impacted)

Didn’t mean to go on at such length, but for me, this is a thinking-aloud elaboration of why I feel (and continue to feel, despite very decent efforts here to put a better face on it) downhearted at the decision and announcement by Modi. That doesn’t mean I am abandoning him as a leader, not at all, but I think it is a serious and costly self-goal.
Cyrano
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Cyrano »

"I don’t see how chess moves with complete opaqueness of intent will serve the BJP or the nation at this point. "
That's the crux of the issue for me, leading to poor communication and guess work by supporters suddenly left clutching straws. Opposition left free set the narrative and sway voter's who can be flipped.
Not giving interviews and staying away from msm can't be the communication policy. Launch your own tv channels for god's sake and get on with it.

I feel NaMo & BJP are frittering away the core due to poor communication and not delivering enough on Dharmic Civilisational Agenda. For the latter some people, including self have already stopped counting on BJP/RSS.. We don't want master strokes, one boundary an over and an occasional 6 is fine. But keep the DCA score board moving along at 6 runs an over, without maidens or hit wickets. Seems like too much of an ask :(
rajkumar
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by rajkumar »

Karan M wrote:
Prem Kumar wrote:
Don't dismiss it so glibly.

The withdrawal of Farm Laws is a mistake by Modi. Its not a fatal one, but its a big one nevertheless. As I posted above, it signals weakness. He has to give out other signals to recoup. The good news is that we are a long way from 2024. But UP 2022 is round the corner.

Modi has done a great job of managing external enemies. But is deer-in-the-headlights when it comes to street level, persistent protests of the CAA/FarmLaw kind. Its a new form of internal warfare (Urban Maoism 2.0) and needs its own playbook to deal with. We don't seem to have one - yet

Constructive criticism of him & his administration at this juncture is important. Modi & his many supporters ought to realize that the only true, well-meaning opposition are his supporters who demand more of him, but for whom country/civilization come before the party/man they support
What you have posted from Sareen is actually glib commentary about how something is a mistake, this, that and so forth plus your commentary agreeing with it. At best, its opinion driven by your fears about the political impact of these laws. The fact of the matter is none of us are dealing with these issues on a daily basis to make the kind of assertions you are so confidently making. I have posted facts about the costs of taking hardline positions, without thinking through the decisions which are based on verifiable facts as was observed during the IG era. Ironically, after posting glib commentary from Sareen, a one liner even, you accuse me of doing the same, wherein I provide actual reasoning explaining why Sareen is full of over the top hyperbole in this case.

If Modi was so incompetent at dealing with urban Maoists as you so allege, where are all the umpteen terror attacks and Maoist takeovers - i dont see any? In fact, I see the urban Maoists seething impotently in op-eds and the media (their last hangout, which more and more seems a deliberate play to let them rant, for India to brag about its democratic credentials). I loathe the fact that the Urban Maoists still have that space even in public discourse. Its influential and still allows them to exert outsized influence. But they have a 70 yr old ecosystem backing them and clearly, the GOI only has so much leeway to operate in. However, the real ones who tried something are actually far more dangerous, are in jails, fighting countless UAPA cases or hiding out in the jungles. Last week itself, the Maha police knocked out 26 odd of them.

There's also a big difference between constructive criticism and idle, opinion based bashing. We have a democratic right to engage in the latter, no doubt, but lets not even pretend that he needs lessons from us and the rest of the keyboard warrior gang on "country/civilization" coming first.

This is a man who fought off all sorts of motivated court cases and survived (did you or me go and save him?), managed to run a state successfully for multiple terms, fought his way to PM and doing what he can for the past seven years against the most vicious kind of opposition. He needs lessons from us on politics or patriotism or what not?

He gets tons of classified reports on the nature of threats and has the sense to pick and choose on how he responds. Meanwhile he also has access to the who's who of international decision makers and can make out what their pressure points and leverage wrt India are. He has to navigate all this.

He hasn't let his ego get in the way when he meets those same western decision makers who were attacking him, denying him representation, lobbying for his incarceration, and that is so he can get them to recognize India as an alternative investment decision vs China. All this while also imposing a FCRA lock wherever possible, taking a hard line against Pak and China to whatever extent, and trying his best to run a "Make in India campaign" which no prior Govt had even bothered with.

Plus, being a person who has come up from extreme poverty, has also been delivering on RKM schemes, sanitation, infrastructure, MIC and industrial development and has not compromised on any of our core requirements whether it be dealing with the Maoists, Pakistanis and the Chinese. Incidentally, the RKM schemes above also ensure a significant constituency votes for the BJP and also reduce the leverage of the BIF gang who were using extreme poverty as a means to spread their influence.

In the meantime, he has delivered RJB to the public (lets not even pretend it would have happened in any other Govt), launched a Ganga cleaning plan - our most holy of rivers and sacred to us, which no Govt even bothered with, and is fixing one of our most revered sites. He has made being civilizational in the public space OK for a PM, something bitterly loathed by the BIF gang and attacked by the whole LeLi gang in India and abroad. Has he backed down? No. He continues doing so.

And you want us to give him "gyaan" on country and civilization coming first? This when Doval openly stated in a recent talk that wars are being fought at the discourse level and are not merely about physical force? So, do you think he doesnt know this?

He has *chosen* not to beat up publicly on the protesters, knowing the schisms that exist and the eager desire of a huge section of the international community to put us in the same group as the PRC with their Uighurs. Agree/disagree, but it was a hard decision made on considering factors which went beyond optics! We know what Indira did and what it resulted in.

Yet, its not appeasement either, as those who committed violence on the 26th have been prosecuted which is being sabotaged as the Delhi prosecution, under another political party is refusing to cooperate (division of powers as the state prosecutor is under that groups thumb) and the other state from which they originally were is providing fiscal support. Would you have him dismiss both state Govts and then spend his limited time fighting those cases or all the other items? Instead, they are trying to get the cases transferred out of Delhi.

Lets be clear here, you think the withdrawal of the farm laws signifies weakness because you've created this mental construct of your ideal leader being some sort of Alpha Male swinging around the jungle, beating up Pakistan via Balakot, winning elections because of that, never taking a step back to re-assess etc, otherwise "it signals weakness" and you have a theory about hierarchy.

That's how you think Indian elections work. Its your opinion that such a leader has put "country/civilization first" or will win, unlike Modi.

However, I suspect you really need to rethink your assumptions and model. The people whom you think will revel in voting for such a "strong man" are far fewer then you expect. And its hardly like he needs us amateurs to tell him about optics and the virtues of a strong man image either. He's been playing chess, taking calculated positions and doing what he can within his constraints and the actual power available to him. He is not willing to engage in high risk activities unless they are absolutely essential (Balakot, 370 before Taliban takeover etc).

And letting a pointless situation fester only creates more opportunities for the BIF to exploit. In any endeavour, you try something, if it doesn't work out the way you want, you drop it, re-assess, try something else and move on. You don't stay and reinforce something that gives you limited gains for huge downsides. Such a leader would be a megalomaniac who for the sake of his/her strong(wo)man image, ends up creating a huge problem. We've been down that path. I grew up in that era. Thanks, but no thanks.

If Modi were to do what you suggest, I deeply suspect we would be worse off. He gets far more data than anyone here on what is functioning and what is not. For him to come on TV and state that he is withdrawing the laws for the sake of the "nation" while he did what he could for the farmers, is not a small effort. He knew the knock to his personal image etc and chose to go down that path.

The right thing to do in that situation is to analyze what led him down that path, not sit and offer pointless advice about how he needs us to tell him about "country and civilization" etc. If anything, we should have the common sense to realize what we are up against if he is not around and somebody like Pappu were at the helm.

We have to accept the fact that there are things at a societal level the BJP has to manage with. There are several laws I disagree which are discriminatory or ineffective, but BJP cant touch them or has actually supported them, because politics. That's going to take generations to fix.

Yes, there are things he and the party can improve no doubt. Their information /communication methods need far more effectiveness for instance. But its hardly like the above decision was taken on the spur of the moment and not carefully thought out. Analyze that, figure out what made such a decision be taken. Agree/disagree with that decision.

Lets have some sensible posts for a change rather than constant complaining that things are not perfect and we didnt get an easy win.

Well said Karan. I wish we had a like button.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Aditya_V »

well said Karan M-> sometimes we keyboard warriors think one ordinance and the entire BIF system of bureaucrats, Media, Overground underground Mafia, Judicial system, Masters outside this country will just shiver and comply.

BIF ecosystem sustained by international funds is very much alive.

what 303 meant for them to organize riots to take over in 2024. Simple truth is there is not enough leverage, and this country is way too poor and easy to stifle.

There is long march ahead and like pealing the onion, 1 by 1 we have to slowly has to be peeled. Let CAA be a law, rules can framed and implemented at the opportune time. If as nation a change occurs in 2024 too bad.

Our enemies our very clever, Pakis will not do 1 suicidal arr ya parr charge and destroy their military capability. Just like that we need to slowly break up our problems and shift the things in our favour.
chetak
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

Aditya_V wrote:well said Karan M-> sometimes we keyboard warriors think one ordinance and the entire BIF system of bureaucrats, Media, Overground underground Mafia, Judicial system, Masters outside this country will just shiver and comply.

BIF ecosystem sustained by international funds is very much alive.

what 303 meant for them to organize riots to take over in 2024. Simple truth is there is not enough leverage, and this country is way too poor and easy to stifle.

There is long march ahead and like pealing the onion, 1 by 1 we have to slowly has to be peeled. Let CAA be a law, rules can framed and implemented at the opportune time. If as nation a change occurs in 2024 too bad.

Our enemies our very clever, Pakis will not do 1 suicidal arr ya parr charge and destroy their military capability. Just like that we need to slowly break up our problems and shift the things in our favour.

this is what twitter says, quite apt, wouldn't you agree..........

Enemies of India — especially #Pak & #China — know they have a catchment universe of 300 million Indians prepared to act as Mir Jafars: Opposition politicians, minorities, Naxals, Communists, activists, lawyers, ex-bureaucrats, journalists…the list is long.

also,
US advised its citizens not to travel within 10 kilometres of the India-Pakistan border.

2 days later Modi repeals the farm laws.

was the worsening situation being watched so carefully by the amerikis and also a lot of other agencies

is there a connection.........
chetak
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

The guy is paranoid and has now become suspicious of his own shadow


https://youtu.be/eKkgGifV3rQ



Rakesh Tikait ने क्यों कहा ‘मोदी की मीठी बातों में हम फंसने वाले नहीं '



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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Suresh S »

On the surface this bill withdrawl looks bad for BJP and Modiji. I personally absolutely hate it but having seen all the reports and reasons and timing of it I agree with it. It is a strategic retreat by Modiji and given the circumstances I support it and fully agree with the commentory above by karan .

World is in a churn post chini virus and will remain so for years to come. India is in a sweet spot and I will do nothing to undermine the Indian economy and Indian army. Punjab is a border state and large parts of India,s army is from there. Also supplies to Indian army in kashmir/ladakh could be affected by fresh rounds of violence by these Chini and paki supported khalistanis in punjab and Jammu.

This should be looked from that perspective.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Primus »

These are troubled times. Even more reason for us all to stand firm in support of Dharma.

Posting again the list of pro-Dharmic people and institutions, from about seven months ago from this forum. Timely reminder of what we are up against and to consolidate our strength and support. Please add/edit as you see fit.

Pro-Dharma People and Institutions


1. Rajiv Malhotra - still relevant
2. Op India, esp Ajeet Bharti on YT - now as DO Politics
3. Jaipur Dialogues
4. VRA TV - Vivek Agnihotri and the 10 minute debate on YT
5. Prachyam - an upcoming group out of Varanasi with excellent videos on YT.
6. Cyber Sipahi on Youtube and FB
7. Ekal Vidyalaya
8. Capital TV on YT
9. Arnab Goswami and Republic TV - they may not need funding but can do with our support in any way we can.
10. Offensive Defense and Maj. Gaurav Arya
11. Swarajya online
12. India Post
13. Pyara Hindustan on YT
14. Pushpendra Kulshreshtha on YT
15. MyInd Markers (myind.net). Pramod Buravalli
16. Agniveer and Sevanwaya.
17. MaridhasAnswers - YT and twitter handle - the guy has been single handedly demolishing the Dravidians and putting the right facts about Modi ji and his policies
18. Nationalist Hub (Journalist Sai Krishna) "Nationalist Hub" TV channel in Telugu. Folks from Nationalist Hub are perhaps the only TV channel in the country who went to Kashmir & Laddakh, and performed a Rudrabhishekam ritual on the banks of Indus River for the destruction of India's enemies and safety of our troops https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HJOod_HiHt8
19. Raka Lokam
20. India Speaks Daily
21. The Frustrated Indian
22. OCN
23. AKTK - this guy is great, very cutting sarcasm.
24. The Liberal Hindu
25. GauNandiSewa
26. Neeraj Atri
27. Sham Sharma - not that sure about him, he tends to have that buffoon AI Mitra on his show far too often.
28. India In Details
29. Sangam talks
30. Dharma dispatch
31. Centre for Indic studies
32. Nilesh Oak
33. Prabodhan Manch mumbai
34. Nehal Tyagi
35. Tiwary Bhaiya
36. Mamta kale
37. Payal Rohatgi
38. Sukhi chahal
39. Rj Raunak
40. Pratipaksha
41. Nitin Shukla
42. UPWORD - Great YT channel with long and very intellectual discussions; important for winning back the narrative
43. Carvaka Podcast on Youtube by Kushal Mehra. Great content and lengthy intellectual discussions. important for narrative building. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKPxuu ... KSsm123Vww
44. String channel on YT; hard hitting and fearless
45. Akshita Speaks - YT channel by a grounded young lady. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCA_p6A ... wQql9j76Rg
46. Chanakya Forum - strategic discussions by Maj. Gaurav Arya - great cerebral content and guests https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCQ86P4 ... gMs_Eg8PKg
47. Advocate J Sai Deepak and The Indic Collective Trust he is part of, to this list
48. Shiksharthakam, a channel on Youtube. They make good videos defending Sanatana Dharma and actually make skits in which one of the participants actually takes on another pretending to be a JNU acolyte with typical BIF arguments against Hinduism and Dharma.
49. PGurus run by Shree Iyer is very good - Again, not very sure all the time about him.
50. NewsX with the main anchor RIshabh Gulati is very patriotic and nationalistic. Accentuates the positive about India, and takes on India's adversaries like China, Pakistan and anti-India individuals in the US, UK and elsewhere.
50. "Sablokatantra", he has a terrific sense of humor and is gaining followers on youtube rapidly (around 630k in a short period), most of his videos are <10 mins long.
51. Sahil Chandel's 'The Day media'
52. Shiva Shakti- Telugu channel. Its founder and anchor Karunakar sugguna is a ex-christian who did Ghar wapsi and now taking on christian missionaries and pastors single handedly. Highly recommended for telugu language people.
53. Satya Sanatan of Ankur Arya
54. Mukesh Khanna ji via Bhishma intl YT
55. Abhinav Prakash
56. Raj Vedam
57. Stratnews Global of Nitin Gokhale
58. NK Sood's ISRG - Indian Security Research Group youtube channel
59. Arif Ajakia, a non-resident Pakistani who is a dual citizen of France and England has a better perspective and understanding of India than most resident Indians.
60. TAG tv of Tahir Gora, are some worthy additions to the list.
61. Francois Gautier. A French journalist married to an Indian, lives in Auroville
62. Last but not least, Nimittekam run by Omendra Ratnu. Helped Pakistani Hindus in every way possible. A remarkable story http://www.nimittekam.org
disha
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by disha »

Modi took lemons and made a lemonade out of them. It will be a while before the posters doing rona-dhona here on taking back the farm bills will move over to rona-dhona on something else.

A few pages back it was how petrol prices are impacting the Indian economy and how Modi will lose elections today in 2024. As if there was a time dilation where when as some esteemed posters suggest that Indian voters will remember the petrol price rise of 2021 in 2024 and blame Modi and hence Mudi will rezine only.

Now that the petrol/diesel prices are lower in general in BJP ruled states (Gujarat vis-a-vis Rajasthan vis-a-vis Maharashtra), truckers plying the Mumbai-Ahmedabad-Udaipur-Ajmer-Delhi are making pit stops where? The 400 litres tank on Ashok Leyland trucks will give you a cool Rs. 1600/- difference. But then the political parties in Rajasthan and Maharashtra are not impacted.

Anyway, since the noises on gas prices have died down, here is something else happening, besides the farm laws:

1. https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/t ... 2021-11-21

Attempted murder charges on Saayoni Ghosh.

2. According to TMC MPs who met Amit Shah, Police were brutal to the TMC workers

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 67432.html

3. The above link is a lie. Since they are saying this as well: https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/b ... 2021-11-21

It was the BJP workers. TMC as usual is schizophrenic

And quietly, Hon RM Rajnath Singh'ji slides in this Kathor Ninda to Cheen
“It is a matter of concern that UNCLOS is being repeatedly weakened by arbitrary interpretation of its definition by some nations," Rajnath Singh said on Sunday.
The occasion being

https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... s-7633884/

And the news on some hazardous materials traveling from Bakistan to Cheen intercepted at Mundra port? Nothing about it.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by sudarshan »

disha wrote:...
A few pages back it was how petrol prices are impacting the Indian economy and how Modi will lose elections today in 2024. As if there was a time dilation where when as some esteemed posters suggest that Indian voters will remember the petrol price rise of 2021 in 2024 and blame Modi and hence Mudi will rezine only.

Now that the petrol/diesel prices are lower in general in BJP ruled states (Gujarat vis-a-vis Rajasthan vis-a-vis Maharashtra), truckers plying the Mumbai-Ahmedabad-Udaipur-Ajmer-Delhi are making pit stops where? The 400 litres tank on Ashok Leyland trucks will give you a cool Rs. 1600/- difference. But then the political parties in Rajasthan and Maharashtra are not impacted.
...
This is it. I was waiting to see if any of the posters doing R&D on the petrol prices being too high, with the caveat that one must criticize the govt. when it is doing bad things, would come back and say anything (I wasn't expecting praise, but at least an acknowledgment) when the prices dropped in some states (we know which ones). But there was nothing. Every week or so, there is a new issue which will cost the BJP in 2024. When the issue dies down, or is resolved, another comes up, and the old issue is dropped, but the R&D lingers on in the subconscious, and supporter morale has been sapped that little bit. It will have cumulative effects. BJP facing costs in 2024 will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The other side, OTOH, stays with their own no matter what.

Maybe Modi knows the level of trust that the common guy on the street has, and he isn't bothered about the R&D on SM. Maybe that common "uneducated" guy, when he hears Modi say "I took the decision in the best interests of the nation" will say "OK, I trust Modi" and not sit and do a comprehensive 180 degree analysis. Yes, I said 180 degrees instead of 360 - because each guy seems to do the analysis based on what (s)he can see right before h** eyes, depending on how h** view is already oriented, totally ignoring the perspective on the other side.

I'll wait till the dust settles, till then I'm not going to get my BP up or my morale down on the farm law scenario. If it takes a few years for the dust to settle and for a clearer picture to emerge - well, I'll wait a few years.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Vayutuvan »

Primus wrote:These are troubled times. Even more reason for us all to stand firm in support of Dharma.

Posting again the list of pro-Dharmic people and institutions, from about seven months ago from this forum. Timely reminder of what we are up against and to consolidate our strength and support. Please add/edit as you see fit.

Pro-Dharma People and Institutions


1. Rajiv Malhotra - still relevant
...
62. Last but not least, Nimittekam run by Omendra Ratnu. Helped Pakistani Hindus in every way possible. A remarkable story http://www.nimittekam.org
63. Palki Sharma/WION
64. Cybersurg - Hakim Shiv
65. English behen on YT
66. Karolina Goswmi on YT
chetak
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

Image


Image
Ambar
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Ambar »

Vayutuvan wrote:
Primus wrote:These are troubled times. Even more reason for us all to stand firm in support of Dharma.

Posting again the list of pro-Dharmic people and institutions, from about seven months ago from this forum. Timely reminder of what we are up against and to consolidate our strength and support. Please add/edit as you see fit.

Pro-Dharma People and Institutions


1. Rajiv Malhotra - still relevant
...
62. Last but not least, Nimittekam run by Omendra Ratnu. Helped Pakistani Hindus in every way possible. A remarkable story http://www.nimittekam.org
63. Palki Sharma/WION
64. Cybersurg - Hakim Shiv
65. English behen on YT
66. Karolina Goswmi on YT
The mods need to create a separate thread or make this a sticky.

Few additions to this list are :

67. Rang De Basanti - by Rajeev Chaudhary (love his humor and his Haryanvi accent!)
68. Apka ka Akbhar - by Pradeep Singh (neutral, sensible and soft spoken)
69. Sushant Sinha - by journalist Sushant Sinha
70. The Liberal Hindu - content is mostly on intelligence, underworld and security related issues
sanjaykumar
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by sanjaykumar »

Mary Suresh Iyer and Esther Dhanraj.
Karan M
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Karan M »

KLNMurthy wrote:
The explanation given in the Hindu article is that it is a strategic move:

1. sacrifice the farm laws to safeguard UP

2. cool down the drift of Sikh public opinion towards Khalistan

Plausible explanations on the surface but in my view,

1. Unlikely to have much helpful impact on UP polls outcome. Going back to the WB loss, the UVP for BJP was never the caste equation, it was the image of strength, confidence, incorruptibility and competence. If you are BJP, you can’t safeguarded UP election by undermining the strength & confidence elements. I really don’t see how UP prospects are improved by this decision.

2. Maybe the extent of Khalistan penetration came as a surprise and it was felt urgent pre-emptive action was required. But it shouldn’t have been a surprise. Even the party’s rhetoric played up the Khalistan aspect. Maybe it was thought to be only a propaganda point, and imagined that sikh-on-the-street would be swayed towards a nationalist stand by highlighting the Khalistan danger. If they thought that, that is itself a problem, it’s a very amateurish and ill-informed line of thought. For one thing, they didn’t understand the increased sophistication level of Khalistani propaganda among the current generation, the offspring of the’80s Khalistanis. Khalistanism seems by far the default outlook among Sikhs in US /Canada, going by the prevalence of the Khalistan flag.

3. The softer, kindlier projection—the astonishing begging of forgiveness by Modi etc.—may temporarily take the wind out of the sails of those who chant that Modi’s India is harsh, and reduce that particular flavor of noisemaking for the moment, but is not going to change anything substantive.

2 (pre-empting the Khalistan penetration) is the most plausible reason for me: like a doctor who has misjudged a cancer and allowed it to grow to a lethal stage, Modi has taken an urgent but belated action for national security. That may work if (keeping with the cancer analogy) the doctor puts the full focus of his energy and intelligence on confronting and defeating the cancer. But the advanced stage of the problem and belated nature of the response means there are far fewer options going forward and far fewer chances of prevailing.

IMO if the Khalistan threat is serious (and I don’t doubt it is) the better option would have to make a series of clear public statements addressing the sikh aam janata directly, appealing to their patriotism, at the same time stating unequivocally that any and all Khalistani or other anti-national tendencies will meet a ferocious and deadly state response, and people should think hard before throwing in with the Khalistani cause.

I don’t see how chess moves with complete opaqueness of intent will serve the BJP or the nation at this point. It is as though Modi sarkar is afraid of openly confronting the anti-nationalism. I haven’t seen any clear statement from Modi on the subject, either during this agitation or during the CAA agitation—only throwaway provocative statements from AS, Delhi BJP chief, and further downstream, each one more amateurish than the previous one.

I think what troubles me the most is the seemingly furtive mughalai zenana-intrigue nature of the conduct of national security policy. And our acceptance of this furtiveness as the norm—as though the people of the country are children who will be paralyzed with fear when parents tell them there is a danger. We are accepting and even expecting to be treated in this way, which completes the cycle of childishness. If Indian citizenry is strong enough to openly and transparently face down covid under Modi’s leadership, it is strong enough to face down this threat also.

(We shouldn’t of course demand sharing of specific threat intelligence, but we should certainly expect transparency in national security at a policy level—just saying that the threats a, b, and c are there and they will be put down by every means necessary regardless of international opinion;which we respect blah blah), and Indians who sign on with such forces should expect to be negatively impacted)

Didn’t mean to go on at such length, but for me, this is a thinking-aloud elaboration of why I feel (and continue to feel, despite very decent efforts here to put a better face on it) downhearted at the decision and announcement by Modi. That doesn’t mean I am abandoning him as a leader, not at all, but I think it is a serious and costly self-goal.
KLNM, the duo at the top always make their moves in silence. Like it or hate it, it is how they function, how they've internalized the POV that "silence and secrecy are best" in terms of taking critical decisions.

Its always on need to know basis with critical folks involved in that decision alone consulted.

I believe these are harsh lessons internalized after facing all sorts of unbelievable conspiracies by the BIF ecosystem over a decade and a half to the degree one of the two was even imprisoned on cooked up charges. And the other had to face odious committee after committee all of which had the mandate to somehow fix him.

So, given the magnitude of the opposition there is going to be very little transparency in decision making at certain levels, for joe public in real time.

Ipso facto, some select trusted elements will be allowed to get a limited view of what went on and why the decision was taken or some trusted elements may detail the information even to the media, who are mostly kept at arms length. The article I posted above is exactly that. Its a clear articulation of the thought process from insiders and they are not going to go overboard in giving the whole media access.

But the secrecy part is here to stay and its best we get used to it. Article 370, Demonetization, CAA-NRC, the Ladakh deployment, the Galwan clash, the Balakote strike and the aftermath - all have been secret in terms of key details and information.

All this is to my mind a deliberate strategy to keep the opposition guessing over what is happening so they can't oppose it. We have to understand a very simple thing, especially post Covid, ShaheenBagh and CAA-NRC and even this farmers protest stuff. The other side will burn the country down to get back into power and the duo on the top have now recognized this and hence don't want anything to leak, about what they intend, how they think, what they think are their "challenges". This is classic operating during wartime stuff. For all purposes we have been engaged in a mini civil-war where one side has decided they will do anything to make the current Govt fall. Bar expanded insurgency beyond J&K, NE, LWE - which is what this K thing would have likely led to over the next few years, and still might (we haven't really addressed many of the root causes), we are pretty much seeing non stop attacks on the current GOI conducted at multiple levels in a coordinated fashion.

You are mistaken IMHO about anyone here putting a "better face on it". AFAIK nobody here is engaged by the BJP to spin on their behalf. Some of us however are very interested in analyzing why something happens, because very serious and committed politicians are not usually prone to acting on a whim. We also have an interest in not letting the country go back to the state it was in.

Now, there is a flip side to this secrecy. The average supporter of the BJP is left equally in the dark about why something is happening or why something else is not.

There are two kinds of people here - those who implicitly trust the current GOI and its leadership and hence will just go with that.
Others, like most of us on this forum who are used to discussing an issue threadbare and seeking answers. It is the latter crowd which feels the most frustrated and upset in the absence of information.

A good part of the blame for this is also the general incompetence of the BJPs media management arm which has not really kept pace with the aspirations of those who seek information and is also not able to engage in high quality information management with solid aims at the short, medium and long term levels.

However, this should also mean the crowd which wants the data, should actively search out info and try to piece together what's happening. Unfortunately, this is a quality which is increasingly rare on such emotive topics. People are more interested in voicing their anger, how upset they are, venting, which is fair as it at least serves as catharsis and is oft required, but then they dont spend enough effort in figuring out why something happened. All this leads to is general anger and then each of these people serves as a conductor of dissatisfaction for the next person.

Not one person here AFAIK has catalogued the business reforms conducted during Covid - there's a ton of them, stuff like that is *hard power*, getting India's GDP mix out of the farming obsession is more important than chasing after a solution which has become unviable thanks to the fear of change and vested interests both colluding on an emotive topic.

But in their angst over one two topics, pushed by people who focus on those topics alone on social media ("free xyz", "do cultural x") they get mislead, and lose sight of the big picture - and then what upsets them, is the sole reason for their vote/NOTA, and as such the next establishment which will come in will be lame duck and wont be able to even face situations with equanimity as Modi has.

They dont even understand how badly they are undermining their own interests by not putting on a rational hat and doing the hard analysis regarding the overall development trajectory. When election time comes, they may vote for the next BJP admin and state they have done their duty, but their constant dissatisfaction over one two issues (which are quite frankly peanuts in a civilizational effort which may span decades), they would have ensured many others dont, because those people see these posts and decide to go NOTA. To whose benefit is that? Certainly not ours.

We really need to temper our expectations - I know many folks who wont vote BJP if *one* sop is withdrawn. Its a function of their socio-economic issues. And yet, we expect that the GOI should often focus on managing the cultural aspects primarily whereas to retain power, they have to juggle huge economic issues within constrained fiscal capacity. And if they lose power, forget culture, forget civilizational aims, best be prepared to face incredible communal discord as items like the communal violence bill are used to target all those who ever voted BJP.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

Karan M wrote:
Not one person here AFAIK has catalogued the business reforms conducted during Covid - there's a ton of them, stuff like that is *hard power*, getting India's GDP mix out of the farming obsession is more important than chasing after a solution which has become unviable thanks to the fear of change and vested interests both colluding on an emotive topic.
Good point and one that has been, perhaps wilfully, missed out by most of the DDM too.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Karan M »

DDM especially a huge chunk of the ELM are part of the regime change effort. IMHO they are a complete lost cause and need active measures for their wilful disinformation to be countered.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Karan M »

Prem Kumar wrote:Karan M: I am not going to do a point by point discussion on your lengthy post. You think Modi did the right thing by repealing the farm laws. I don't. You bring in history/context in which to see this and net-net why this is not such a bad thing. I disagree with this approach - where criticism is warranted, it must be provided to keep a good Government honest. You have some views on what you think is my mental-model of a leader & what in your opinion a leader ought to be doing. Once again, my views are different from yours.

Lets just agree to disagree.
I based my reply on what you had posted. So far I haven't seen any substantive critique apart from an entire post on hierarchy and dominance etc. That's opinion which of course is your prerogative, however it is not data based substantive posting.

Nor does that encapsulate the complexity of decision making in a country like ours which has huge fault lines, assiduously cultivated over decades, and which are deliberately being set alight. If your opponent sets you a trap, it would be foolishness on our part to persist with a policy that takes you further into it. Obviously, this varies from issue to issue. On this issue, we were faced with limited upside so the GOI decided to walk away. There are many groups, previously entrenched folks who are deeply upset at the rise of a big tent BJP which brings in the majority's aspirations to power. It is not in our and the BJPs interests to fight these battles all at once, while the borders are alight.

Constantly complaining about it, and deliberately ignoring all that the Govt has done with harder and more impactful decisions is not keeping a Govt honest. Nor is telling the PM that he needs lessons on civilizational and national aims from us. The Govt has far more access to classified data than anyone of us can provide to whit. These statements come across as incredibly unaware of the gravity of the current situation IMHO.

I'd prefer posts made on the basis of data and substantive heft behind them which add to our understanding. Opinion is something we all have but adds little to the discussion. If the farm laws were make or break for the progress of India, that'd be one thing. But they aren't. Most BJP and even non BJP ruled states will break free of the mandi system anyhow judging by the more reasoned reports. At best instead of 100% intra-state efficiency, we will have 70% or 80%, wherein corporates have to procure on state by state basis and transport. Instead we have doom and gloom of how one law being repealed is the end of days. I disagree with such claims, as the data so far doesnt bear out the need for such cynicism and we are nowhere near the kind of troubles or problems we once faced in terms of a weak and ineffective Govt run by those who were inimical to our interests.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Ambar »

Rumors afloat that Rakesh Asthana, the GJ cadre IPS officer who was recently named as the DL Police Commissioner will move to IB. I don't think all these are isolated events, it almost seems like the center expects something serious to occur between now and the assembly elections.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by AshishA »

Ambar wrote:Rumors afloat that Rakesh Asthana, the GJ cadre IPS officer who was recently named as the DL Police Commissioner will move to IB. I don't think all these are isolated events, it almost seems like the center expects something serious to occur between now and the assembly elections.
Rakesh Asthana is the go-to officer of Modi Shah duo. So his transfer to IB shows something very serious is going on. Btw didn't RAW, IB etc heads get a service extension of 2 years? Along with that Modi spent about 12 hours yesterday in the DGP/IGP conference.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Hari Seldon »

Agreed. Something big is brewing. An external enemy is anyday easier to face than an internal one, with all the FUD, self-goals and assorted BS that goes along with the latter. Only.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Hari Seldon »

Let's hope there'll be no further rollbacks and appeasements. Wait n watch mode on that one.

https://twitter.com/ARanganathan72/stat ... 59719?s=20
As expected, the emboldened protestors, middlemen, and anarchists are now clamouring for an MSP law. If the govt buckles and gives in to guaranteeing MSP, it would be an UNMITIGATED DISASTER for this country.

Here I explain why in detail, on @TimesNow.
Good arguments as usual. Hard to refute prima facie. Let's see.

Of course there're those who aver that "How many came out to the streets in support of the farm laws, hain ji?? Then why whine when the laws are repealed, no??" Etc. All too familiar aajkal. Here's a nice use-case of so-called middling classes wali janta coming to protest on the streets. But guess what, nothing will move on this remove rohingya demand. Not unless they block a highway or occupy a busy road junction, perhaps. Only.

https://twitter.com/FltLtAnoopVerma/sta ... 47840?s=20
People in Delhi’s Dwarka came in the streets to remove encroachments by Illegal Rohingya’s sheltered by Kejriwal
Video also available in the tweet.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Pratyush »

AshishA wrote:
Ambar wrote:
Snip....
Rakesh Asthana is the go-to officer of Modi Shah duo. So his transfer to IB shows something very serious is going on. Btw didn't RAW, IB etc heads get a service extension of 2 years? Along with that Modi spent about 12 hours yesterday in the DGP/IGP conference.
Speaks poorly about the permanent establishment of India that it is so compromised that it cannot be relied upon to uphold the Indian constitution.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by venkat_kv »

TKiran wrote:Actually, Farm laws were not good for the simple reason that Hindus will loose land to Corporates. I don't know who advised Modi to steer the agricultural policy to the detriment of Hindus. Modi wanted a course correction, we dont need farm laws, just more efficient implementation of govt. Procurement and distribution.

Good riddance....

I don't see any chankianness on the part of Modi. Just didn't see far enough how detrimental it would be for Hindus. But anyways, good riddance....

P.S. : these type of laws would be good in countries such as USA, where there's excess land, but very few farmers. It would have been suicidal for Hindus to accept such laws. Hindus have only one thing that is still working in their favor "own farm land, and agriculture as employment, family as a unit". Modi was about to bring colossal wreck on Hindus because of a wrong advice. Good riddance..... though stupidity of the Punjab farmers helped....
TKiran Saar,
Normally i wouldn't respond to these things as everyone has their own opinion. but can you elaborate how Hindus will "loose land" to the corporates (as opposed to other groups of minorities or peacefuls not loosing for the same). How are the farmers going to loose land to the corporates and is Ambani/Adani going to come in a tractor and till land?
Without these laws, are currently small and marginal farmers raking in money as opposed with the laws the land will be taken over by corporates.

The law specifically says that land cannot be taken in lieu of payments by the corporate or the money lender as per these laws.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by nandakumar »

After some reflection I have formed a hypothesis about the repeal of the farm law. This is not in contradiction of what has been posted by others. Can be seen as a supplementary proposition. This is what I think had happened.
My guess is the Supreme Court would have informally sent out a feeler to the Government that they are uncomfortable with having to rule in favour of the Government or against it. They would like to be presented with a situation where they are relieved of the obligation to having to rule on the dispute.
Look at it this way. Even the lawyers knew better than to litigate on the substantive question of Parliament's right to legislate on the subject. So that was not in doubt. The procedural defect issue too, is an 'iffy' proposition in law. In any case any defect in the process (the Ordinance route) got cured by the Parliament legislating on it subsequently. But the Court was reluctant to uphold the majesty of the rule of law with all the law and order consequences that would entail should the Court rule in favour of the Government. The feelers must have gone to the Government quite some time back. But the Government was taking it's own time to oblige the Court. So the Supreme Court used the Delhi pollution issue to send out a reminder that if the push comes to shove, they would rule the law as unconstitutional. The Government got the message. Nothing else explains the timing of the decision.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by venkat_kv »

Pratyush wrote:
AshishA wrote:
Speaks poorly about the permanent establishment of India that it is so compromised that it cannot be relied upon to uphold the Indian constitution.
It could possible be as you have stated Pratyush Ji or maybe that they have faith in the said officer to get things done the ways they want it to be done. In the same Maha police force you can have encounter specialists, one that build cases with thorough investigation and meticulous registering of the said offenses or we can have the case of a recent former police commissioner who just slapped cases and the republic head honcho came out unscathed in a little while.

i guess it depends what they are looking to get done and how it gets done - horse for course maybe.
Last edited by venkat_kv on 22 Nov 2021 12:52, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by venkat_kv »

sudarshan wrote:
disha wrote:...
A few pages back it was how petrol prices are impacting the Indian economy and how Modi will lose elections today in 2024. As if there was a time dilation where when as some esteemed posters suggest that Indian voters will remember the petrol price rise of 2021 in 2024 and blame Modi and hence Mudi will rezine only.

Now that the petrol/diesel prices are lower in general in BJP ruled states (Gujarat vis-a-vis Rajasthan vis-a-vis Maharashtra), truckers plying the Mumbai-Ahmedabad-Udaipur-Ajmer-Delhi are making pit stops where? The 400 litres tank on Ashok Leyland trucks will give you a cool Rs. 1600/- difference. But then the political parties in Rajasthan and Maharashtra are not impacted.
...
This is it. I was waiting to see if any of the posters doing R&D on the petrol prices being too high, with the caveat that one must criticize the govt. when it is doing bad things, would come back and say anything (I wasn't expecting praise, but at least an acknowledgment) when the prices dropped in some states (we know which ones). But there was nothing. Every week or so, there is a new issue which will cost the BJP in 2024. When the issue dies down, or is resolved, another comes up, and the old issue is dropped, but the R&D lingers on in the subconscious, and supporter morale has been sapped that little bit. It will have cumulative effects. BJP facing costs in 2024 will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The other side, OTOH, stays with their own no matter what.

Maybe Modi knows the level of trust that the common guy on the street has, and he isn't bothered about the R&D on SM. Maybe that common "uneducated" guy, when he hears Modi say "I took the decision in the best interests of the nation" will say "OK, I trust Modi" and not sit and do a comprehensive 180 degree analysis. Yes, I said 180 degrees instead of 360 - because each guy seems to do the analysis based on what (s)he can see right before h** eyes, depending on how h** view is already oriented, totally ignoring the perspective on the other side.

I'll wait till the dust settles, till then I'm not going to get my BP up or my morale down on the farm law scenario. If it takes a few years for the dust to settle and for a clearer picture to emerge - well, I'll wait a few years.
Sudarshan Saar,
I will point out to one more caveat with respect to the petrol and diesel prices. Recently, Raaka sudhakar an indic leaning telugu journalist also pointed out that since the Centre reduced the tax a bit on petrol and diesel and some BJP ruled states followed suit most of the internet memes have stopped on the same. Now nobody is asking the state govt's, especially the opposition ruled ones where the local MLA's were busy blaming the Center earlier as to why the respective state govt will not reduce taxes on fuel.

This tells you where the memes are originating or supported from. It also raises the question if the BJP's internet presence is a tad overstated. looks like the opposition seems to focus on creating these memes and some of the sanatani leaning members also forward and question without thinking where all the money is spent.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

nandakumar wrote:After some reflection I have formed a hypothesis about the repeal of the farm law. This is not in contradiction of what has been posted by others. Can be seen as a supplementary proposition. This is what I think had happened.
My guess is the Supreme Court would have informally sent out a feeler to the Government that they are uncomfortable with having to rule in favour of the Government or against it. They would like to be presented with a situation where they are relieved of the obligation to having to rule on the dispute.
Look at it this way. Even the lawyers knew better than to litigate on the substantive question of Parliament's right to legislate on the subject. So that was not in doubt. The procedural defect issue too, is an 'iffy' proposition in law. In any case any defect in the process (the Ordinance route) got cured by the Parliament legislating on it subsequently. But the Court was reluctant to uphold the majesty of the rule of law with all the law and order consequences that would entail should the Court rule in favour of the Government. The feelers must have gone to the Government quite some time back. But the Government was taking it's own time to oblige the Court. So the Supreme Court used the Delhi pollution issue to send out a reminder that if the push comes to shove, they would rule the law as unconstitutional. The Government got the message. Nothing else explains the timing of the decision.
there is no way that these farm laws are unconstitutional

fools rush in where angels fear to tread onlee
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by nandakumar »

The NJAC was perfectly constitutional too. What is more, this was a law that had political consensus across parties. Yet the SC found a way to strike it down. The point the SC is right no matter what because it is the last word on any subject.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Sachin »

Halal row: Kerala hoteliers urge Pinarayi Vijayan CM to intervene
This news is not from another country but from the socialiest heaven in India; Kerala. Due to the economic clout of the Muslim community 'halal' businesses were on the rise. This was a phenomenon which started in year 2000 onwards (before that no one bothered), and became very much predominant in the hotel industry. A couple of weeks back, a video in social media appeared in which a Mullah was shown spitting on a vat of biriyani to make it 'halaal'. This video went viral, and soon there were other videos of Islamic clerics justifying the process of 'halaal' by spitting on food. Who ever brought this out played their act well. For the 'hygene conscious Mallu' this came as a shocker and there were clear calls to boycott 'halal' eateries. 'Halal' eateries have certainly taken a big hit, and what ever action from the government will not be able to alter the perceptions. In many eateries Halal boards disappeared over night :lol:.
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