2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

[shravanp]

Fortunately or unfortunately, Modi/Shah made a decision not to fight bullet for bullet. They have made a decision to take the money power of BIF/Jihadis/Politicians who work with Jihadis/BIF networks.

Example is being made out of WB as you are seeing ..
ht under control

I think that has always been the main focus. Defanging the BIF conglomerate financially. And it's perfectly on track.

[vijayk]

https://twitter.com/RijulJK/status/1552949898705637376

check this judge

[vimal]

.ot.

[Primus]

Lately I've noted that certain new posters here with less than 50 posts to their credit have been singing non-stop about the top leadership being cowardly and not doing enough for Hindu causes. That is all their posts seem to be about. It is clearly another agenda of sorts. This has become a common tactic on many forums and SM in general - a ploy that pulls at our emotions and forces us to 'agree' with them, thus providing momentum to a fundamentally hostile ideology.

My suggestion to old-timers - please ignore these people, they are trolls of a different kind.

[vijayk]

Lately I've noted that certain new posters here with less than 50 posts to their credit have been singing non-stop about the top leadership being cowardly and not doing enough for Hindu causes. That is all their posts seem to be about. It is clearly another agenda of sorts. This has become a common tactic on many forums and SM in general - a ploy that pulls at our emotions and forces us to 'agree' with them, thus providing momentum to a fundamentally hostile ideology.

My suggestion to old-timers - please ignore these people, they are trolls of a different kind.

AAP(tards) infiltrated our forum too?

May be funded by Ford Foundation see eye yay like Kujli?

[IndraD]

SC has passed robust judgement on PMLA-ED sunwai making it clear ED has the power to make arrests, not furnish copy of FIR equivalent, can act in states w/o state approval and many other important nuances, this article covers them well [Sibbal Singhvi et al were contesting PMLA provisions in SC and trying to weaken them interestingly passed by Sonia govt itself]

https://www.indiatoday.in/law/story/pml ... 2022-07-27

[Antrix]

Vmalik Saar,
I am splitting the response into two parts as they are both different dealing with different issues. Whether somebody mentions it as a 56D chess move is besides the point. Go and read the article or better if you can find the PM's address, listen to it directly. The PM talks about bringing in "Pasmanda muslim" and "christians" who have been ignored (would probably refer to poor and backward castes that were converted with inducements or with some false promises). you try to get them as a support to your party and then do a ghar wapsi where ever possible. For that people have to first listen and then be the beneficiaries of your schemes.

Thinking, i don't need malsi vote will be the end of the BJP electorally in a few years time. You will be willfully confining yourselves to a fewer states and will be out of of running in those states as well as time progresses by. See how many Hindus voted/vote for BJP. If the BJP got 38-40 % of vote what percent of Hindus voting have actually voted for the BJP. The numbers don't paint a pretty picture and if you don't expand your vote base that will be the electoral end of BJP and with it Hindu politics as well. Nobody here is suggesting to take in Yasin Bhatkal type characters and give into the malsic mindset. You are trying to still get nationalistic muslims and form that as a bulwark against fellow muzzies rather than Hindus vs Muslim, it should be muslim vs muslim as time goes by with Hindus/santanis concentrating on something else. Having an Arif Mohammad Khan to fight on your side is much better than leaving him and people like him on the sidelines.

The Vajpayee govt brought in many reforms for a govt that didn't have a full BJP majority by itself but ran a tight ship with NDA allies. Murali Manohar Joshi tried to change NCERT syllabus and went hammer and tongs against leftists and the mafia in JNU. yet Hindutva vadis didn't bring them back or rather couldn't bring them back as the rural areas were in distress and affected the polls then.

BRF has many intellectual giants who contribute everyday to this august forum, people who have understand our history & politics. Yet we entertain the fantasy of 'moderate muslims'. Muslim v Muslim happens only when the Kafirs are finished. Take any example from the past or present, this was true 1000 years ago, it was true 100 years ago, it is true now and it will be true 1000 years hence. BJP's pasmanda push is nothing but the fantasy of 'mera abdul auro jaisa nahi hai', like the running joke on Love Jihad.

Will the Muslims of India ever vote for BJP? Yes, absolutely, if & when it talks about bringing in Sharia laws, when it talks about building grand mosques, when it permanently rejects NRC/CAA/UCC, when it completely rejects Hindutva - in short, when it becomes Indian National Congress.

You're talking about nationalistic muslims being 'bulwark against fellow muzzies'. This is a ridiculous fantasy. A nationalistic Muslim, is first of all, not even a Muslim to the majority of the Momins. Muslims like Abdul Kalam or Arif Mohammad Khan are not taken seriously by the Indian Muslims, they are at best, show pieces, but not worthy of emulation.

Our choice as Indians Hindus must be to continually push the BJP to the right and if some of the top leaders get infected with Sickularitis (which seems to be the case these days), then some electric shocks need to be administered quickly to get them back on track.

My feel is that closet Congi supporters often use this modi/shah beating to tilt aggrieved hindutva supporters, until it is TINA they get my vote

I think the posters grumbling all the time here on BRF are rather harmless and toothless (paper tigers), since this forum is absolutely the worst place for propaganda targeted at tilting Hindutva supporters (much lower readership than public media and even less appetite for BS thanks to moderators).

The apt comparison is with old ladies who complain day in and day out to each other about their husbands but go home anyway.

Seriously, either quit the grumbling or make a clean break and come out with true colors. If you want to hold government accountable for wrong policies, BRF is not the place to do it.

There is no strategic or political analysis here any more...just long winded grumbling over various "incidents" from a few posters who have taken over this space. Harmless but a real nuisance.

Why must BRF be echo-chamber for BJP worshiping? We all agree that currently, BJP is the only viable instrument for Hindutva politics. TINA, we all agree. But to say that even discussing BJP's actions or inactions are just like 'wife-husband squabbles' doesn't make sense. We can all agree that we can have 100 page discussions bashing or supporting BJP/Modi and it will not even affect maybe more than half a dozen votes. But surely, a forum is for discussion. The last few years have been very tough and the Government, despite all the claims of 56D chess moves, has been largely ineffective in protecting the lives of its supporters & workers and defending the interests of the silent majority. I think that warrants a discussion.

Despite claims that the Government is choking BIF financially, every challenge we have faced in the last few years has only resulted in worse failures. CAA/NRC riots, resulting in Delhi riots, luckily ended by Covid, culminated in the far longer, better funded & internationally supported Khalistani seiges. All these went without answer, latter went with a groveling apology by the top man. Failure after failure and we are supposed to pretend like the Home Minister or the NSA know what they are doing. The ground is being shifted everyday from right under our feet with no response from the so called 'Hindutva' party and yet people have a problem in discussing this.

Typical response from people like yourself is that 'why aren't Hindus protesting on the streets'? The same BJP will lathi charge & shoot Hindus, yet mollycoddle Muslims & Sikhs, even take back cases after a televised apology. They can get away with this because they know TINA. Who will we vote for? They are right, but should we not even call them out for it?

[la.khan]

SC has passed robust judgement on PMLA-ED sunwai making it clear ED has the power to make arrests, not furnish copy of FIR equivalent, can act in states w/o state approval and many other important nuances, this article covers them well [Sibbal Singhvi et al were contesting PMLA provisions in SC and trying to weaken them interestingly passed by Sonia govt itself]

https://www.indiatoday.in/law/story/pml ... 2022-07-27

So, they are objecting to a 'draconian' law they made Makes you wonder why they made such a law in the first place May be, these tur*s never dreamt of the day when PMLA would be applied to them, much less La Famiglia

[Ambar]

Lately I've noted that certain new posters here with less than 50 posts to their credit have been singing non-stop about the top leadership being cowardly and not doing enough for Hindu causes. That is all their posts seem to be about. It is clearly another agenda of sorts. This has become a common tactic on many forums and SM in general - a ploy that pulls at our emotions and forces us to 'agree' with them, thus providing momentum to a fundamentally hostile ideology.

My suggestion to old-timers - please ignore these people, they are trolls of a different kind.

Primusji, the forum should never be beholden to a single political party, the interest of the nation and upholding dharma is non-negotiable and comes first before any political ideology. Politicians switch parties, stich alliances, break alliances, make U-turns when necessary, buy politicians from other parties etc. their interest with rare exceptions is always to retain power and to make obscene amounts of money, this is true at every level of the government in India.Pre-2014 on this very forum it was common for people to criticize the political acumen, judgement and competence of the "saffron party" including its stalwarts like Pramod Mahajan, Advani and on occasions Vajpayee too . Somehow in the recent years we have began equating Modi = India and India = Modi (similar to INC's Indira is India slogans in 70s).

Make no mistakes Modi has done a tremendous job in rapid infrastructure building, last mile connectivity of basic civic amenities to the poorest sections of the society, women welfare, basic sanitation to the poor, rural empowerment through gas, water , electricity and internet connectivity. The economy despite several self-goals and external challenges is humming along well through record FDI, SEZs, record exports of both merchandise and services and record number of start up "unicorns". His push for digitization of day to day transactions through UPI has revolutionized retail. Today nearly 40% of retail transactions are digital or nearly $1 trillion USD in monetary terms. Without him and his administration at the center, India would have faced 100x more deaths during the pandemic. The massive 'Vande Bharat' mission, mass production of covid vaccines and undertaking the second largest vaccination drive the world has ever seen with 1/4th the economy of PRC, running non-stop 'Oxygen Express' trains during o2 shortages, 'Shramik' trains for millions of migrants, providing free food for 80 crore people for nearly 18 months, undertaking 'Mission Ganga' to bring home thousands of Indians stranded in Ukraine ,these achievements are nothing short of spectacular. If the nobel committee was non-partisan and honest, then Modi's work and self-less performance to save 1.4 billion people should have earned him a Nobel peace prize.

But is he or his government perfect though ? Hardly ! The BIF today are just as strong as they were in 2014. There were plenty of suggestions early on that he should first tackle the hydra-headed BIF first but it was ignored. His cabinet ministers took pride in the fact that they left the hinduphobic, islamo-marxist NCERT textbooks untouched. Some of his ministers had no problems launching books or attending events hosted by the very BIF who want to bring down his govt. His govt's telecom policy is one step forward and one step backward as we saw in increasing arbitration thanks to AGR and increase in monopolization domestically. The finance ministry continues to believe in regressive taxation, until the recent reduction in excise (thanks to UP elections), the central duties on fuel was up 250% compared to pre-2014. Despite low oil prices globally between 2014-2021 the Indian consumer continued to pay high price at the pump and everywhere else due to increase in transportation costs. The same with tax policies and compliance on startup investments, which wasn't corrected until recently. Although his government has so far stayed away from the hallmark of Delhi politics, i.e. multi-billion scams, not going after NSE co-location scam, escape of Nirav Modi, Lalit Modi and Vijay Mallya were all under the current administration. The demonetization was ill-thought and terribly implemented, it made zero difference to reduce corruption (infact increased the diversification of corrupt wealth), and the high FICN issue remains unsolved. GST is still messy, it did not reduce the regressive taxation on consumers but increased headaches for small businesses. The military and MoD continues down the same path of slow procurement and reactive strategies. While LOC should have been lit up for dozens of Paki sponsored targeted killings in Kashmir, we are happy to let them go unpunished. The illegal immigration from Bangladesh has not reduced but increased. Before you would come across a Bangladeshi in a construction site in big metros, now go to any tier 2 or tier 3 towns you see them working everywhere from restaurants to farms to construction.

Losing the narrative on CAA was a datum point. The months prior to CAA saw rioting by Jamia, JNU and DU students in Delhi and not acting against them emboldened anti-CAA propagandists. Despite over 70 deaths during 3 waves of anti-CAA riots, the government let Shaheenbagh drama continue. Many of the anti-CAA puppeteers are still engaged in anti-nation activities and were once again in the forefront of agro-terrorists riots , make no mistake they will strike again. The Agnipath and Nupur Sharma case shows how the BIF will use street violence as their primary weapon, because the orchestrators know they not just have the protection of the ecosystem but also the surety this government won't act. How many more internationally coordinated riots, mass protests do we need before acting against Twitter and Facebook ? How many more people need to die before whatsapp like services are taken to task ? Banning twitter, facebook, whatsapp and helping build a native social media ecosystem would have gone a long way in deleveraging BIF.

Lastly, OpIndia had an interesting article after Zubair's release by melards. It said we should take heart that atleast he was arrested. They are right partially but he was arrested because people like us on social media made enough noise to highlight his role in the Nupur Sharma violence. If we are never to question why supporters of DSS were mercilessly shot dead but the agro-terrorists were allowed to blockade the national capital for an year and riot at will it is not being pro-AAP. If we question the worsening security situation in kashmir and yet another flight of hindus from the valley, it is not because one is anti-national. If we question why the cadres who live and die for the party don't deserve even a single tweet from the party high command, it is not being anti-hindu. Without accountability and just blind loyalty to party above everything, BJP too will look like INC/AAP/JDS/RJD or any other patriarchal, personality centric party.

[Dilbu]

Excellent post Amberji.

[vimal]

Amberji wrote what was exactly in my heart for a long time. BJP seems to be morphing into INC2 and showing similar traits at all levels.
Maybe the TINA factor makes them blind to Hindutva agenda.

[Adrija]

Ambar ji,

I fully agree that we should not be beholden to any single party. However, may I please- in the interest of a transparent exchange of perspectives- submit for your consideration the following:

1. Economy: Modi has achieved multiple clean-ups on this front, and has made the economy much much much much stronger and equitable. He has gone after the crony capitalism; GST continues to improve, minimal increase in revenue deficit, and there has been a massive clean up of the thicket of laws which has kept our businesses deliberately mired in red tape and corruption. And he has achieved this while massively increasing capital formation in the economy, thanks to the very thing you have pointed - taxes on petroleum products during their low prices; and demonetization has resulted in prevention of massive counterfeit currency by Pak, massive increase in tax base, and evasion/ money laundering prevention and capture. Happy to provide statistics separately.
But I think economy has not been your main grouse, it's more on internal security and of not being Hindutva enough
2. On internal security, let us agree to disagree... the main focus of the government has been more on disabling the western front and ensuring physical security. Also, we don't see what we don't see and are able to prevent successfully... let me just say on this public forum that there has been a concerted and unrelenting effort to incite communal riots to derail the India economic momentum by many many interested parties using the napakies as their handtool.. which have largely been nipped in the bud. And a strong effort to cripple the financial status of the domestic hand maidens (FFNGOs)within the confines of the law. it is slow progress but we know the judiciary is what it is...... on this subject I actually admire the maturity of the Modi government in backing down on the NJAC front and averting a constitutional crisis... that of course remains a to-do

Net net, I would humby submit this is by far the best government we have ever had in our ~ 74 years of independent existence. Is it perfect? No, but only if you believe that the clean up on ALL fronts could be done within a finite time frame of 8 years only.

Perhaps Modi comes as close to being a perfect and well timed leader of India who we have the blessings to have... particularly at this stage where the world is reeling from multiple attacks. Had we had a congress or any other government, we would have had dead bodies lining all streets in nearly all cities.... like I said, we don't see what did not happen

IMVVHO pls

[KL Dubey]

^^Indeed. And don't be overly humble....especially if you're taking the bait.

It is not about shutting down discussion, but that the same old gripes are regurgitated weekly. This is spamming - or possibly targeted propaganda (less likely on BRF). Typically:

- Long post about some recent incident and why everyone is corrupt and asleep.

- Posters reply/get baited...typical text is "BJP is exploiting Hindus/being another INC/ Shah no good/will lose elections".

This is repeated weekly. What is the value ? Is BRF a blog site for daily stream-of-consciousness?

Nobody here is a "BJP worshipper" Low-level "debates" happen every day on TV over-analyzing daily incidents without the bigger picture. Why regurgitate on BRF?

I too have "strategy" desires which goremint is not doing anything about, but I made my point once or twice and no more. I do post links that broadcast the bigger picture.

[KL Dubey]

One possible solution is to have post word/character limits in threads, if the forum IT allows it. I think most posts can make their point in no more than 150 words/1500 characters.

As an example, I edited my post just above (originally 255 words) down to 145 words while making the same point.

For longer posts explaining deep fundas/important insights/data dumps/info dumps from reliable sources....there could be a "Knowledge Bank/Long Post Request" thread in which to post, and then Mods can approve and move it to the appropriate thread.

[KLNMurthy]

Fortunately or unfortunately, Modi/Shah made a decision not to fight bullet for bullet. They have made a decision to take the money power of BIF/Jihadis/Politicians who work with Jihadis/BIF networks.

Example is being made out of WB as you are seeing ..
ht under control

I think that has always been the main focus. Defanging the BIF conglomerate financially. And it's perfectly on track.

It’s always useful to see what the serious enemies are most worried about, when they are talking to each other. Pay attention to the “brainy” type of enemies like Jaffrelot or PBM. Read their lines and also between the lines to see what they are concerned about.

The things that Modi is doing without fanfare, the boring administrative-legal stuff, are probably his most effective weapons.

https://thewire.in/rights/full-text-chr ... a-hindutva

I can conclude that building on the Congress-pioneered technique of using economic agencies to target political enemies, while co-opting the Supreme Court to go along, is a big part of Modi strategy. (AP people remember the prolonged “disproportionate assets” imprisonment without trial of Jagan Reddy by Sonia after his powerful father “unfortunately” died in a helo crash.)

I think they have simply decided that protection of Hindus against Muslim attacks is not important enough to matter politically.

I wonder whether team Modi have factored in the possibility of grassroots level Hindus organizing themselves for self-defense. They may get caught flat-footed & without ideas as they did with CAA and farm laws.

[Ambar]

Adrijaji, Modi govt has done an incredible job of helping the most vulnerable sections of our society, no two questions about it. I know communities that until recently survived on subsistence farming are now living a far better life than they were just few years ago. This has only been possible because of seamless implementation of PMJDY trinity and access to basics like Ujjwala and SBM gramin. While GST has improved , both its design and implementation are far from perfect. We saw a sample of this in the recent 47th meeting of GST council where it arbitrarily imposed tax on basic cereals and grains just because they are "branded" at a time when people are struggling with high fuel and food prices worldwide. The fake invoices even with GST are rampant, as is the imbalance between producing states and consuming states which is yet to be rectified. Add to this the frustration of a bug laden portal, the small businesses are the ones that suffers the most with such inefficiencies.

While absolutely admitting and admiring our near record PMI and exports, isn't capital formation for an economy better & healthier when we improve the household savings rate instead of reducing it ? After a brief uptick in the household savings rate in Modi 1 administration, it is now nearing a 2 decade low. The corporate savings too is where it was pre-2014 but both household and corporate liabilities have significantly and alarmingly gone up. I have no qualms increasing the tax base, a rapidly developing country like India needs to improve its tax base but should it be at the cost of gross savings and burdening the poor and middleclass households with higher and higher regressive taxation ? I firmly believe the current policy of keeping interest rates far below real inflation will only help the real estate mafia and property speculators are the cost of middle class and retirees .

FICN did indeed go down in the years immediately following demonetization, i think the reasons were because the FICN producers had to retool and rethink their logistics and not because of an increase in vigilance . FICN has increased once again and if numbers from 2020 are right, then it is at a all-time high and around 120% more than what it was pre-demonetization (links below). Also, the whole premise of demonetization was to curb unaccounted money, mostly gained through corruption outside the reach of ITD but neither corruption nor tax evasion has reduced, and i doubt it will reduce until we are 90% digitized economy with a strict L&O system that punishes the corrupt and willful tax evaders.

On the political and dharmic side of things, the party needs to decisively prove once again that it is still a cadre based , pro-hindu party. Unless there is a cost on those who continue to attack hindus both at home and abroad, the party and the government will have to listen to its members and its voters, good things and bad. There are many low hanging fruits they could have gone after but to the frustration of many including myself they continue to ignore. There is another reason why murders and resignations of its workers should wake up the party before it is too late, Modi is in his 70s, he may continue for another term or retire if he senses the party will not get a majority in 2024. In either case for a cadre based party it is important for its survival to retain the purity of its core ideology and look beyond a person. Half the BJP governments at state level have won with Modi's poster, they need to think what after him .

Some links -

FICN
https://theprint.in/india/2020-saw-190- ... es/737235/
https://www.mha.gov.in/MHA1/Par2017/pdf ... 4/2705.pdf

CAD
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... #xj4y7vzkg

Savings and investment
https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/i ... %2028.2%25.

GFCF
https://tradingeconomics.com/india/gros ... %20sources.

[Cyrano]

Ambar ji, your post reflects quite accurately how I see the Modi Govts performance as well. I'd add superb vision for India's place in the world and brilliant, game changing foreign policy conduct, along with the very able Dr SJ. Just on this and this alone, NaMo has easily earned the place of best PM ever in my book.

But all this doesnt put him above continued analysis, scrutiny and criticism. One of the reasons posts criticising NaMo's apparent in(sufficient )action on certain social and Dharmic matters keep appearing again and again is that such instances keep happening again and again and the inaction continues. And because those who criticize believe its not a waste of time because we believe his is capable of acting on such matters effectively and do better.

[fanne]

wow!!

[KLNMurthy]

Ambar ji, your post reflects quite accurately how I see the Modi Govts performance as well. I'd add superb vision for India's place in the world and brilliant, game changing foreign policy conduct, along with the very able Dr SJ. Just on this and this alone, NaMo has easily earned the place of best PM ever in my book.

But all this doesnt put him above continued analysis, scrutiny and criticism. One of the reasons posts criticising NaMo's apparent in(sufficient )action on certain social and Dharmic matters keep appearing again and again is that such instances keep happening again and again and the inaction continues. And because those who criticize believe its not a waste of time because we believe his is capable of acting on such matters effectively and do better.

On Hindu protection, I fear that up to a very high threshold, Modi will just ignore all criticism, protest etc. I don’t think it is his way to change course for every squall, he will just weather it out, and take his knocks. His mantra is “focus.” His goal seems to be centered around “antyodaya.”

We Hindus, having been slaves, have lost touch with the experience of running a vast political and administrative system. And we have very little skill at patiently leveraging and manipulating the system to get what we want.

Modi represents the resurrection of that experience. For a “prototype” he has done much better than I had any business to expect.

I look at the fate of other native leaders around the world like Evo Morales or Hugo Chavez and thank God for our civilization, depth, which gave us a Modi despite having been crushed in every possible way for centuries.

It does hurt that Modi has decided that Hindu insecurity is an acceptable price to pay for his strategy.

[Primus]

I have no problems with a discussion, but to me some posters seem to beating the same old tired drum again and again.

Is Modi and his government perfect? No, absolutely not. Are you? Am I? Absolutely not. There is no individual, no society, no nation and no government that does not have some failings. Is the BJP government doing a good job overall? You bet it is! Is it far better than the UPA or the INC or the other rag-tag outfits we've had in 70 yrs? Yes it is.

Can it do better? Yes again. Do we dare hope? Yes to that too.

Keep the faith guys, build up your ground strength, donate generously to pro-Hindu organizations, especially like Dharmansh. If you want street power, then support and donate to Bajrang Dal and VHP, your local Durga Vahini etc. Boycott all Jihadi products and services. How many of these protestors have done any of this?

This is a war of attrition, being played on our pitrabhumi for over a thousand years. Cannot be won in one lifetime, let alone two political terms. This is the first time since Shivaji that we have a strong a Hindu leader in power. He may not be doing things on your priority list in your order, but he is on your side. He is not calling it "Hindu Terror" and blaming you for being murdered by Jihadis. He is not ordering the police to fire upon your kar-sevaks.

There is so much more that I could say but it has all been said before by others who say it better.

[Adrija]

Primus ji has articulated in a pithy manner far better than I could on the Hindu jagriti front, so I will refrain from any further, except reiterate his exhortation to keep the faith for at least 10 more years

That is a matter of faith, so will stop here

let me at least try answering the fact based questions on the economy:

1. Firstly, over the past 8 years, Modi government has systematically invested in stopping the loot of taxpayer money, and then restring and repairing the twin balance sheets problem of the PSBs (public sector banks).

2. A concomitant fallout of the plugging of the public loot has been the private sector focusing on repaying loans as a priority and hence low private sector capital investment as an unavoidable fallout. Previously- and I saw this as a first hand witness- indian industry basically destroyed capital due to a variety of factors, but primarily due to terrible policies of a deliberately designed predatory state. The game carried on for due to collusion of the politico-bureaucracy and industrialist nexus (NBJPRIE in the late lamented Rahul Mehta's terminology IIRC) due to public loot. Modi not only put a stop to that loot, he has also taken very very radical steps to dismantle that predatory state (e.g., the 15% flat tax rate), and enacted the whole IBC framework. What you see coming out of the ashes of that dismantling is hopefully a much more genuinely competitive and equitable economic structure (again, please note that I am not claiming a 100% nirvana). And as an aside, the radical intent to divest most of public sector is also a statement which is revolutionary and has passed unacknowledged

3. I am not sure why you are lumping together both household and corporate savings into the savings rate references you have linked. if you dis aggregate the two, and keeping in mind the restructuring the private sector has been forced to subject to as explained above, then actually you will realize that households savings are at a record high in 2021, both in absolute and % of GDP terms. I am linking one such report below
https://tinyurl.com/3b6br5ye

4. I am not sure if you see the logical inconsistency in your statement on "burdening" households while simultaneously acknowledging the various welfare measures which the government has instituted, both economic (Ujjwala, PMJDY, DBT, the ration payouts in the entire pandemic period et al), as well as social (toilets, PMJAY, etc). Firstly, these cost money, which has been sourced from the various taxes and duties etc, and secondly, surely the most indigent households are by definition better off than before? if your crib is about the recent inflation, all I can say is that India is actually facing much lower incremental inflation than any other nation anywhere and in the whole is much better off as mentioned in #3 above.

5. And for cribs about design flaws in GST, I disagree- there are incremental steps to ensure universal coverage and convergence to three rates. but these are by design slow steps given the complexity of the exercise and the number of stakeholders involved. The fact that GST itself was rolled out by this government when previous ones failed over ~ 20 years is clearly another radical reform which IMHO has not been adequately appreciated

[skumar]

...
There are many low hanging fruits they could have gone after but to the frustration of many including myself they continue to ignore. There is another reason why murders and resignations of its workers should wake up the party before it is too late, Modi is in his 70s, he may continue for another term or retire if he senses the party will not get a majority in 2024. In either case for a cadre based party it is important for its survival to retain the purity of its core ideology and look beyond a person. Half the BJP governments at state level have won with Modi's poster, they need to think what after him .

+1
I have zero doubts about 2 things - 1. Modi will contest 2024 2. He will win comfortably again. However my guess is as good as yours.

Reason for #1 is I believe that the second rung (Yogi, Fadnavis) is still ramping up and he is not going to leave it in the hands of a Shah/Singh/Gadkari who do not have a mass base.
Post #2, it is very likely that he will leave office in the middle of his term leaving a couple of secure years to his successor to establish themselves.

There are many things I hope he gets to -
1. Population control bill
2. Clean the mess in many areas of BJP with the opposition correctly accusing BJP of being a washing machine - this means that ED has to act against new BJP members with horrendous records
3. Strengthen national security capability (e.g. jet engine dev needs to be a moon landing type mission for India and only he can flag it off, Atma Nirbhar in real terms with message to defence stakeholders)
4. Reintroduce CAA, Farm Bill
5. Take on Xi more strongly while he has already done more than any other PM, this needs #3
6.
7.
8. Infinite expectations from blank cheques

Like you said, TINA. Modi is the best thing that has happened to India.

[Antrix]

More secularism

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 93344.html

Is this NSA’s job? First his ‘interlocution’ with Maulana Saad of the Tablighis (who never got arrested) and now this. Is the NSA now a point man of this Govt to reach out to Muslims?

[KLNMurthy]

More secularism

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 93344.html

Is this NSA’s job? First his ‘interlocution’ with Maulana Saad of the Tablighis (who never got arrested) and now this. Is the NSA now a point man of this Govt to reach out to Muslims?

Muslims are a key factor in national security, are they not? So why shouldn’t the NSA take a hand in managing this factor?

Do you think NSA’s job is to just sit on a high throne & push paper? We know from past history that Doval is a hands-on operator.

Are you privy to what the NSA discussed privately with Muslim leaders? What mix of threats, cajolery, bribery was on the table?

[Ambar]

That is a matter of faith, so will stop here

let me at least try answering the fact based questions on the economy:

1. Firstly, over the past 8 years, Modi government has systematically invested in stopping the loot of taxpayer money, and then restring and repairing the twin balance sheets problem of the PSBs (public sector banks).

2. A concomitant fallout of the plugging of the public loot has been the private sector focusing on repaying loans as a priority and hence low private sector capital investment as an unavoidable fallout. Previously- and I saw this as a first hand witness- indian industry basically destroyed capital due to a variety of factors, but primarily due to terrible policies of a deliberately designed predatory state. The game carried on for due to collusion of the politico-bureaucracy and industrialist nexus (NBJPRIE in the late lamented Rahul Mehta's terminology IIRC) due to public loot. Modi not only put a stop to that loot, he has also taken very very radical steps to dismantle that predatory state (e.g., the 15% flat tax rate), and enacted the whole IBC framework. What you see coming out of the ashes of that dismantling is hopefully a much more genuinely competitive and equitable economic structure (again, please note that I am not claiming a 100% nirvana). And as an aside, the radical intent to divest most of public sector is also a statement which is revolutionary and has passed unacknowledged

3. I am not sure why you are lumping together both household and corporate savings into the savings rate references you have linked. if you dis aggregate the two, and keeping in mind the restructuring the private sector has been forced to subject to as explained above, then actually you will realize that households savings are at a record high in 2021, both in absolute and % of GDP terms. I am linking one such report below
https://tinyurl.com/3b6br5ye

4. I am not sure if you see the logical inconsistency in your statement on "burdening" households while simultaneously acknowledging the various welfare measures which the government has instituted, both economic (Ujjwala, PMJDY, DBT, the ration payouts in the entire pandemic period et al), as well as social (toilets, PMJAY, etc). Firstly, these cost money, which has been sourced from the various taxes and duties etc, and secondly, surely the most indigent households are by definition better off than before? if your crib is about the recent inflation, all I can say is that India is actually facing much lower incremental inflation than any other nation anywhere and in the whole is much better off as mentioned in #3 above.

5. And for cribs about design flaws in GST, I disagree- there are incremental steps to ensure universal coverage and convergence to three rates. but these are by design slow steps given the complexity of the exercise and the number of stakeholders involved. The fact that GST itself was rolled out by this government when previous ones failed over ~ 20 years is clearly another radical reform which IMHO has not been adequately appreciated

Adrija ji,

The PSB balance sheet problem looks better because of the record amount of write off . Since 2014, the PSBs written off nearly 10% of their total advances or roughly around 11 lakh crores. It may look even better in the coming days once NARCL goes live, something that Nirmala Sitharaman was initially against but later changed her mind, perhaps after the consolidation of PSBs did not yield the desired results. The gross NPAs though has doubled in the last 7 years, yes, there's been a slight drop to 5.9% but it is still higher than the 4.7% of total advances in 2014.

The gross domestic savings has both household, corporate and govt savings. The current gross savings rate as per CEIC data is 28.2% of GDP compared to over 35% in the high growth period of 2003-2009. The 2020-2021 savings rate, especially the household savings rate you mention will be a outlier because of the pandemic. We saw this trend worldover, even in US where the historic trend has been 5% household savings rate, went up to 35% briefly in 2020 and again 25% in 2021 when the second wave hit. As per the latest BLS data it is back to normal at around 5.1%. Infact the RBI bulletin before the 2nd wave (link below) indicates this pattern.

https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_ViewB ... x?Id=20143

#4 - there is no contradiction . As i stated earlier the government has done an incredible, unprecedented work towards upliftment and welfare of the most vulnerable sections of our society. I am all for increasing the tax base to support such meaningful , measurable welfare programs but where I disagree is with the use of regressive tax methods which harms more poor and middleclass households than it helps in the long run.

As for GST, i have nothing new to add to what has been discussed already. While it has streamlined the taxation on goods and services, the tax burden on consumers is still very high (one of the highest standard tax rate in the world if i remember right) . There is no reason why things like auto parts, computer parts, basic construction material should be 28%, how are these basic, mundane items demerit and sin goods ? Similarly i do not understand the recent decision to apply tax on basic staples if they are packed and branded. There are continuing issues of initial filings and final returns not matching ,and almost extortionist penalties on delayed payments. I am also curious to see how the govt balances between historically fiscally weak states demanding extension of GST compensation Vs those states that are against funding consuming states at their cost.

One must be abundantly clear that the anger and disappointment that you see from the very people who not only voted the incumbents twice but also supported them monetarily, physically and ideologically is because of the hopes and expectations. We know that unlike many governments of the past, atleast in the center the intention is good but the execution leaves much to be desired. As elections draw closer, the BIF won't rest on their recent victories but will open more new fronts, I guess we will find out an year from now if BJP has learnt from the past mistakes and changes its strategy.

[Ambar]

More secularism

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 93344.html

Is this NSA’s job? First his ‘interlocution’ with Maulana Saad of the Tablighis (who never got arrested) and now this. Is the NSA now a point man of this Govt to reach out to Muslims?

The news media reported that he mentioned about respecting each others faiths and gods but interestingly also called out PFI by name and the danger such organizations pose to the unity and security of the nation. I have a feeling that the ground is being prepared to go after PFI after the recent killings and riots. Whether NSA is the best person to address such a faith meeting or perhaps a minister from the govt would be more appropriate for that role is up for debate. Maybe the NSA has good relationship with some of the faith members and may have their ears is probably the reason why he was sent.

[Vayutuvan]

If they don't listen, he can have their ears, literally.

[madhu]

More secularism

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 93344.html

Is this NSA’s job? First his ‘interlocution’ with Maulana Saad of the Tablighis (who never got arrested) and now this. Is the NSA now a point man of this Govt to reach out to Muslims?

The news media reported that he mentioned about respecting each others faiths and gods but interestingly also called out PFI by name and the danger such organizations pose to the unity and security of the nation. I have a feeling that the ground is being prepared to go after PFI after the recent killings and riots. Whether NSA is the best person to address such a faith meeting or perhaps a minister from the govt would be more appropriate for that role is up for debate. Maybe the NSA has good relationship with some of the faith members and may have their ears is probably the reason why he was sent.

Amberji, the point here is not dovel speeking to sufi's.. Or setting the ground. But the intresting part is it was in the same forum resolution was passed to Ban PFI, Condemn Insult to Gods by All India Sufi Sajjadanashin Council will it not endorse the stand taken by muslim organization that went viral after successful anti-CAA that india is moving in the direction where, hindus to live in india should take permision of muslims? I dont understand why government is doing self goal everytime.

If it wants to ban PFI or any organization let it do, why all these "winning hearts and mind"? NSA at tabligi to request not to spread corona, NSA at interfath to get muslim (pasmands) . why all these? Do you think these Mullas really think about india? I feel if Dovel had talked to road side abdul pancharwala would be much better. He is more bothered about life & india than these Sufi. More over what stand does these sufi have on barelvi PFI? Sufi's are kafir as per Baralvi and PFI is more barelvi.

The major worry is, in order to replace NOTA hindus, BJP would make more hindus to opt for NOTA and anyway muslims will not vote. These are not only futile effort but setting new presidency like anti-CAA, farm bill etc.

[hanumadu]

Adrija ji,

The PSB balance sheet problem looks better because of the record amount of write off . Since 2014, the PSBs written off nearly 10% of their total advances or roughly around 11 lakh crores. It may look even better in the coming days once NARCL goes live, something that Nirmala Sitharaman was initially against but later changed her mind, perhaps after the consolidation of PSBs did not yield the desired results. The gross NPAs though has doubled in the last 7 years, yes, there's been a slight drop to 5.9% but it is still higher than the 4.7% of total advances in 2014.

The gross NPAs were only 4.7 in 2014 because bad loans were not recognized as NPAs under the UPA govt for obvious reasons. The gross NPAs might be still high but its the net NPAs that matter because provisions have been made for a large chunk of NPAs. In other words the NPA losses have been recouped by the banks through profits from the last few years and that money is available for lending by the banks once again.

[vijayk]

https://www.opindia.com/2022/07/we-cant ... i-clerics/
‘We can’t be mute spectators to communal tensions in the country’: NSA Ajit Doval at interfaith peace meeting with Sufi clerics

On Saturday, 30th July 2022, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval attended an interfaith harmony meeting with Sufi clerics in New Delhi. Addressing this meeting he said that we Indians cannot be mute spectators to the communal tensions in the country. He said that we have to organize and raise our voices against some elements that are trying to create an atmosphere that’s vitiating the progress of India. The conference was held at the Constitution Club of India in New Delhi.

According to a report by India Today, Ajit Doval said, “Some elements are trying to create an atmosphere that’s vitiating the progress of India. They’re creating acrimony and conflict in the name of religion and ideology. It is affecting the entire country while spilling over outside the country too.”

NSA Ajit Doval added, “We can’t be mute spectators. We have to organize and raise voices and improve on the mistakes. We’ve to make every sect of India feel that we are a country together, we are proud of it, and that every religion can be professed with freedom here.” Ajit Doval asserted that mere condemning radical forces is not enough and that society needs to go beyond just condemnation and actually work against these radical forces.

[A Deshmukh]

NSA clearly stating expectations on M clerics and religious leaders.
Condemning is not enough, but expects them to actually work against radical forces.

[krithivas]

Ms. Anandi Mishra writing against "Central Vista" project because some of the "walkways used for loitering" will be redeveloped. The anonymity offered by the Greenbelt for women to "liberate themselves from oppression" has vanished.

https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... di/670552/

[Antrix]

More secularism

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 93344.html

Is this NSA’s job? First his ‘interlocution’ with Maulana Saad of the Tablighis (who never got arrested) and now this. Is the NSA now a point man of this Govt to reach out to Muslims?

Muslims are a key factor in national security, are they not? So why shouldn’t the NSA take a hand in managing this factor?

Do you think NSA’s job is to just sit on a high throne & push paper? We know from past history that Doval is a hands-on operator.

Are you privy to what the NSA discussed privately with Muslim leaders? What mix of threats, cajolery, bribery was on the table?

They passed a resolution to ban PFI. A majority government getting resolutions passed to ban terrorist fronts. I don't know whether to laugh or cry.

Also, going by Doval's history, we can be pretty sure that threats were not on the table, never have been. We will all see how it turns out.

[vmalik]

More secularism

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 93344.html

Is this NSA’s job? First his ‘interlocution’ with Maulana Saad of the Tablighis (who never got arrested) and now this. Is the NSA now a point man of this Govt to reach out to Muslims?

Looks like fake james bond is the root cause of last 8 years of inaction. Someone needs to deep dive how this namoona got embedded into the BJP's decision making hierarchy. But I'm still amazed how Namo can allow this unelected clown so much power.

[arshyam]

The trainees speaketh. Everyone else to go home.

Enjoy your Sunday. Just not here.

[Pratyush]

Oh wow, congress it cell is represented here.

[Antrix]

Oh wow, congress it cell is represented here.

While I do not condone calling AD names like the poster above, I remember (and I have been here since the Mumbai attacks, trainee label notwithstanding) the cheer haran BRF did of various NSA's under UPA.

Questioning performance of AD/NM/AS != Congress IT Cell

There are legitimate questions to be asked of the MAD trio.

[Pratyush]

Questioning performance of AD/NM/AS != Congress IT Cell

There are legitimate questions to be asked of the MAD trio.

I have been on BRF in different guises since 2000. Have seen enough and learnt enough to know what is actually happening.

The IT cell operates with a standard template.

Remove any optimism from the situation and demoralise the opposition.

Now MAD are not god. Nor are they omnipotent. They will make mistakes. But they also have the ability to self correct.

With a deeply compromised state. They have achieved a great deal. The fact that we expect so much more is a reflection of the capabilities of the trio.

It's this expectation and confidence that is being attacked by the IT cell.

[Antrix]

Questioning performance of AD/NM/AS != Congress IT Cell

There are legitimate questions to be asked of the MAD trio.

I have been on BRF in different guises since 2000. Have seen enough and learnt enough to know what is actually happening.

The IT cell operates with a standard template.

Remove any optimism from the situation and demoralise the opposition.

Now MAD are not god. Nor are they omnipotent. They will make mistakes. But they also have the ability to self correct.

With a deeply compromised state. They have achieved a great deal. The fact that we expect so much more is a reflection of the capabilities of the trio.

It's this expectation and confidence that is being attacked by the IT cell.

If anyone was Congress IT Cell, they would be stupid to devote time on BRF. They can do a 100 page discussion and still not sway half a dozen voters. What is happening even on the larger social media is that a lot of Hindutva voters are getting blackpilled and disillusioned with this Government and they have their reasons for it (some valid, some not). One side does not want to question MAD at all - support at all costs / no questions at all, other side is shouting at the top of their voices to get these guys to course-correct.

MAD have shown absolutely zero ability to self correct. Lessons after lessons but sum total of shunya learning. The state & establishment is deeply compromised, yet half hearted attempts to dismantle the structures or to build their own.

Perhaps Modi's ideology is to just put his head down & work with a single focus on economic development. Admirable but without protection of life, liberty & religion, what good is economic development?

[hanumadu]

Oh wow, congress it cell is represented here.

While I do not condone calling AD names like the poster above, I remember (and I have been here since the Mumbai attacks, trainee label notwithstanding) the cheer haran BRF did of various NSA's under UPA.

Questioning performance of AD/NM/AS != Congress IT Cell

There are legitimate questions to be asked of the MAD trio.

Questioning is ok but creating FUD is not. Clearly some posters have a one point agenda of creating distrust in the Modi administration.

So Doval got the muslims themselves to ask for a ban on PFI and it seems also a ban on Sar Tan Se Juda slogans. Any way you look, its a great achievement.

Everything this govt does is holistic and with a view towards long term solution and not knee jerk reactions. No body expected NDA2 to abrogate article 370, especially of seeming inaction for 5 years. Modi's first term gave no inkling of what was coming but yet 370 was gone in a jiffy. Same with stone pelting in Kashmir. Everybody blamed Modi for his govts inability to stop it. Yet there is no stone pelting now. They took their time and found the optimal way of stopping it.

By all means criticize and put pressure on Modi and his govt, but don't create FUD with the intentions of a regime change.