2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

greatde · Post by **greatde** » 25 Jun 2022 16:51

Doesn't the exception to anti-defection law is about merger? Not about separate group? Either those rebel MLAs merge with BJP else can still face disqualifications??

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 25 Jun 2022 17:01

Teesta Seetalvad arrested by Guj ATS

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 25 Jun 2022 17:20

On MVA crisis
Where is the other Thackeray
Not a squeak from Raaj so far'
What gives??
Is he biding time to pick up the pieces or wating to effect a coup!!
What if the Eknath Shinde group merge with Raaj's MNS can they escape anti defection law
Will that take kill two birds with one stone meaning Keep the Marathi Manoos identity and Shiva Sena identity and join BJP to form government
But can he be trusted though!!

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 25 Jun 2022 18:26

greatde wrote:Doesn't the exception to anti-defection law is about merger? Not about separate group? Either those rebel MLAs merge with BJP else can still face disqualifications??

The anti defection laws applies only if the rebellion is of under 2/3 of the existing members of the legislative party.

Shiv Sena has 56.

If 37 MLA's defect, anti defection laws will not apply.

https://indianexpress.com/article/expla ... d-7984004/

S_Madhukar · Post by **S_Madhukar** » 25 Jun 2022 18:48

IndraD wrote:Teesta Seetalvad arrested by Guj ATS

I hope the rest of the cabal also gets its comeuppance.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 25 Jun 2022 18:49

Rsatchi wrote:On MVA crisis
Where is the other Thackeray
Not a squeak from Raaj so far'
What gives??
Is he biding time to pick up the pieces or wating to effect a coup!!
What if the Eknath Shinde group merge with Raaj's MNS can they escape anti defection law
Will that take kill two birds with one stone meaning Keep the Marathi Manoos identity and Shiva Sena identity and join BJP to form government
But can he be trusted though!!

Raj has no role to play. He is politically a featherweight. Despite the noise he makes, his party fails to get anyone elected and neither does he have the money power. Rumours were that he was involved in land deals, but lately even that has dried up. Instead of Shinde merging with him, it should be the other way round.

He is a good orator, has mass appeal but he neither has the money source nor the organisation to back it up.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 25 Jun 2022 19:03

S_Madhukar wrote:
IndraD wrote:Teesta Seetalvad arrested by Guj ATS
I hope the rest of the cabal also gets its comeuppance.

"Antecedents of Teesta Setalvad need to be reckoned with and also because she has been vindicively persecuting this lis [dispute] for her ulterior design by exploiting the emotions and sentiments of Zakia Jafri, the real victim of the circumstances," the apex court said in its order.

The supreme court said that there is a need for further investigation into Teesta Setalvad as she was using Zakia Jafri's feelings in the case for her own benefit
SC observation on Teesta. However her arrest is regarding forged documents submission in court

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 25 Jun 2022 19:26

Rana Ayyub needs to be locked up too

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 25 Jun 2022 20:07

Activist Teesta Setalvad, ex-Gujarat DGP Sreekumar arrested a day after SC ruling on 2002 riots

https://indianexpress.com/article/citie ... n-7991078/

A day after the Supreme Court upheld the clean chit given to then Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi in 2002 riots case, activist Teesta Setalvad and retired DGP RB Sreekumar were arrested by the Gujarat Police.

Based on a complaint by police inspector DB Barad, the DCB on Saturday lodged an FIR accusing Sreekumar, dismissed IPS officer Sanjiv Bhatt who is in prison in another case, and Setalvad on charges of forgery, conspiracy and other sections of the IPC.

RB sreekumar is a habitual offender.

He needs to go down for the ISRO spy case too where nambi narayanan was falsely arrested

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 25 Jun 2022 20:15

A rotten apple is rotten in any basket. He was willing to sell his services and there are always buyers.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 25 Jun 2022 22:12

Another fallout of the BJPs unwillingness to take on street goons is that any two bit hero wants to display street power. Penguin is now vowing to block any MLAs from returning as “the road to the legislative assembly passes through Worli and Dadar” which are Sena strongholds. He also challenged the Centre to deploy the army and CRPF if they wanted the rebels to join the legislature..

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 25 Jun 2022 22:33

Furthermore Sena people from Penguin are going about systematically destroying offices and property of the rebel MLAs, street violence and destruction of property. Since police are under NCP, they are standing back and watching. The ploy seems to be to create chaos and force presidential rule rather than lose the Assembly. The latter has the very real danger of the election symbol itself going to Shinde.

Once someone has smelt and gauged your lack of cojones to take on street power, everyone will mercilessly take advantage of it. BJP as usual is watching from sidelines doing nothing.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 26 Jun 2022 01:32

Retired Judge MB Soni, revealed, he found that any petition related to Gujarat Riots filed by Teesta in SC, goes to the bench of Justice Aftab Alam .
It was later found out Aftab Alam 's daughter Arusa Alam is a partner in Teesta Setalvad's NGO Citizens for Justice & Peace . https://twitter.com/MongeringM/status/1 ... CyrHIjJLdQ

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 26 Jun 2022 14:19

The rebels are slowly losing the plot as Shiv Sena is ramping up the pressure using street power. Non stop demonstrations, violence in rebel constituencies. Its only a matter of time when a proportion of them fold.

BJP as usual standing by on sidelines instead of aggressively using the governor and getting a floor test done.

greatde · Post by **greatde** » 26 Jun 2022 17:01

Pratyush wrote:
greatde wrote:Doesn't the exception to anti-defection law is about merger? Not about separate group? Either those rebel MLAs merge with BJP else can still face disqualifications??

The anti defection laws applies only if the rebellion is of under 2/3 of the existing members of the legislative party.

Shiv Sena has 56.

If 37 MLA's defect, anti defection laws will not apply.

https://indianexpress.com/article/expla ... d-7984004/

But to bypass the anti-defection law, they have to merge. A separate group is not recognized.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 26 Jun 2022 17:11

Latest UT Pawar strategy is to disqualify independent MLAS which reduces total number of valid votes for floor test, in this case MVA may survive.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 26 Jun 2022 19:06

IndraD wrote:Latest UT Pawar strategy is to disqualify independent MLAS which reduces total number of valid votes for floor test, in this case MVA may survive.

How can he disqualify independents?

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 26 Jun 2022 19:59

vijayk wrote:
IndraD wrote:How can he disqualify independents?

this is unchartered territory and will depend on court's interpretation of constitution
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cit ... 447052.cms

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 26 Jun 2022 20:04

IAF receives 60K applications for 3,000 jobs under Agnipath scheme https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 474010.cms

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 26 Jun 2022 22:27

My question still stands: to avoid disqualification etc, can the rebels merge with Raj's MNS and rename it Shiv Sena (Balasaheb group)??
Does MNS have any members in the assembly??
Raj cant be trusted that's entirely a different matter!!
The spot light then will on Thackeray vs Thackeray
And in oratorial skills Raj probably will eat both UT and Beta for lunch!
Or is that not an option for BJP??

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 26 Jun 2022 22:48

iMac_too @iMac_too

Justices Suryakant & Pardiwala
Quote Tweet

Live Law
@LiveLawIndia
#BREAKING Supreme Court to hear tomorrow Eknath Shinde's plea challenging disqualification notices issued by Deputy Speaker to rebel MLAs.

A vacation bench comprising Justices Surya Kant and JB Pardiwala to hear the matter.

#MaharashtraPolitcalCrisis #SupremeCourt
Quote Tweet
Live Law
@LiveLawIndia
· 3h
#BREAKING Eknath Shinde approaches #SupremeCourt against the disqualification notices issued by the Deputy Speaker against rebel MLAs. Plea seeks removal of Dy Speaker and no action on disqualification action till decision on Dy Speaker's removal.

#MaharashtraPolitcalCrisis

Suryakant & Pardiwala is good news

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 26 Jun 2022 22:57

RSatchi, MNS has a grand total of 1 MLA in the assembly. That alone tells you the whole story.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 26 Jun 2022 23:16

Meanwhile, back at the ranch.....

BJP wins back both the loksabha Azamgarh & Rampur from Samajwadi Party.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cit ... 476554.cms

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 26 Jun 2022 23:51

chetak wrote:Meanwhile, back at the ranch.....

BJP wins back both the loksabha Azamgarh & Rampur from Samajwadi Party.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cit ... 476554.cms

is it the result of indifference due to bypolls?
is it because of azham khan gang not able to vote in large numbers due to clean up of electoral rolls?

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 27 Jun 2022 00:52

मुसलमानों ने समाजवादी पार्टी को वोट दिया और यादवों ने बीजेपी को वोट दिया,
Translated from Hindi by
Muslims voted for Samajwadi Party and Yadavs voted for BJP. https://twitter.com/TSP_President/statu ... RpPp7IAonA

Larry Walker · Post by **Larry Walker** » 27 Jun 2022 01:48

Shinde group 'revolting' against UT has no bearing or impact when considered for legislative assembly. Shinde is elected LP leader and as such he is SS supremo in assembly - unless majority of 55 MLA's who won under SS symbol elect a new one and that aint happening. So I dont understand where is the case for anti-defection ?
MH has another assembly floor in Nagpur - session can be held there incase there is L&O issue where MLA's are prevented from reaching assembly floor.
How long can a elected assembly of MLA's operate w/o a Speaker ? Especially when there is a legislative kind of crisis ?
So if a bunch of MLA's plead to Governor to ensure legislative jurisprudence and there is currently no Speaker in the house (and Deputy Speaker does not equal Speaker else in absence of a Speaker he would have been dejure Speaker) - I am assuming even before confidence vote is held - Governor will mandate electing a Speaker. In this scenario - Shinde camp still being the legal SS on the assembly floor can issue whip and any SS MLA (aligned to UT) defying it will be up for disqualification.
I get a sense that a multiverse 4D chess board has been created by you-know-who.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 27 Jun 2022 02:25

vijayk wrote: is it the result of indifference due to bypolls?
is it because of azham khan gang not able to vote in large numbers due to clean up of electoral rolls?

Devil is in the details. In Azamgarh for example the BSP put up a really decent show. They had a Muslim candidate who split the Muslim votes between SP and BSP. The margin of victory was 8679 votes. SP's good relatively much improved performance in the Assembly elections compared to 2017 was because Muslims had deserted BSP and Congress wholesale to vote for them. That didn't happen here.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 27 Jun 2022 02:34

Larry Walker wrote:Shinde group 'revolting' against UT has no bearing or impact when considered for legislative assembly. Shinde is elected LP leader and as such he is SS supremo in assembly - unless majority of 55 MLA's who won under SS symbol elect a new one and that aint happening. So I dont understand where is the case for anti-defection ?

Unfortunately the situation is far more complex than that. There are several ways in which this can still go wrong for Eknath Shinde's group. For example MVA is attempting to get the 12 MLA's who cross voted for the BJP in the MLC elections disqualified while Shinde is trying to get the Deputy Speaker who would make that decision himself removed before he can do that. Plus there are other wheels within wheels using the details of the anti-defection law provisions even if 2/3 of the MLA's rebel. The problem is a lot of the MLA's with Shinde might be with him based on the expectation that they can be part of a new government with the BJP. But nobody wants to lose power. If the danger of disqualification for even a few gets real people might start running back to the UT camp. Raut's goons meanwhile are trying to intimidate them into coming back by straight up threatening their lives.

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 27 Jun 2022 06:59

DNA: Analysis of Teesta Setalvad's 'social service scam'

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 27 Jun 2022 11:33

Tanaji wrote:RSatchi, MNS has a grand total of 1 MLA in the assembly. That alone tells you the whole story.

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/e ... 21760.html
Tanaji
Here we go
Something is happening
Could this be the beginning

Larry Walker · Post by **Larry Walker** » 27 Jun 2022 13:14

nachiket wrote:The problem is a lot of the MLA's with Shinde might be with him based on the expectation that they can be part of a new government with the BJP. But nobody wants to lose power. If the danger of disqualification for even a few gets real people might start running back to the UT camp. Raut's goons meanwhile are trying to intimidate them into coming back by straight up threatening their lives.

From what I am aware there are previous SC judgements which clearly state that Dy Speaker cannot decide on disqualification of MLA's. If Dy Speaker automatically subsumes all powers of Speaker post in event of Speaker post being empty - then Dy Speaker would have automatically been elevated as Speaker. Dy Speaker has delegate powers from Speaker in his temporary absence to run the house. This is based on my limited understanding. So I am assuming that if there is a matter of disqualification of MLA's then the way forward is to first elect a Speaker.
Also the SS Shinde camp MLA's do want to retain power - their calculation would be that if they get elected after 5 yrs of DevF government beating anti-incumbency then they have a much higher chance of winning polls again in 2024 if they revolt against MVA and align with BJP on Hindutva plank given the massive bad-will and fear that MVA has earned till now.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 27 Jun 2022 16:52

Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar tests positive for #COVID19

RASCALS don't want floor test

ritesh · Post by **ritesh** » 27 Jun 2022 17:10

What is with COVID positive with UT followed by Governor and now Dy CM??

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 27 Jun 2022 20:16

Kapil Mishra @KapilMishra_IND

Fake News peddler , jihadi propaganda gang member zubair is arrested by Delhi Police

Count down was on for long as he was trying to cause communal tension and riots through his fake news platforms

Larry Walker · Post by **Larry Walker** » 27 Jun 2022 20:26

Now with SC putting stay on all order passed by Dy Speaker in MH - Shinde can issue a whip to SS MLA's (all of them) - to vote against MVA confidence motion and vote in favor of BJP confidence motion. Seems like game is all set in favor of DevF, Any SS MLA defying whip of Shinde will be eligible for defection proceeding and disqualification.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 27 Jun 2022 20:53

Larry Walker wrote:Now with SC putting stay on all order passed by Dy Speaker in MH - Shinde can issue a whip to SS MLA's (all of them) - to vote against MVA confidence motion and vote in favor of BJP confidence motion.

The tricky part is that; all this should happen in the legislative assembly floors of MH. So these MLAs have to return to Mumbai. And pawarful people can trigger L&O problems to terrorise these MLAs.

Larry Walker · Post by **Larry Walker** » 27 Jun 2022 21:04

MH has 2 assembly campuses - if there is L&O issue in Mumbai - session can be called in Nagpur where there is hardly any SS influence and it is more of BJP bastion.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 27 Jun 2022 21:14

Larry Walker wrote:Now with SC putting stay on all order passed by Dy Speaker in MH - Shinde can issue a whip to SS MLA's (all of them) - to vote against MVA confidence motion and vote in favor of BJP confidence motion. Seems like game is all set in favor of DevF, Any SS MLA defying whip of Shinde will be eligible for defection proceeding and disqualification.

Governor has to call for floor test. First they have to elect Speaker too

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 27 Jun 2022 21:16

vijayk wrote:
Kapil Mishra @KapilMishra_IND

Fake News peddler , jihadi propaganda gang member zubair is arrested by Delhi Police

Count down was on for long as he was trying to cause communal tension and riots through his fake news platforms

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 497359.cms

Alt News co-founder Mohammed Zubair arrested

I think after Teesta, now this animal ... I think AS got the memo ... They disabled several twitter accounts including this fella.

Rana Ayyub twitter account was requested to be disabled. Next in line may be?

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 27 Jun 2022 21:18

https://twitter.com/RubikaLiyaquat/stat ... 6327083008

Rubika Liyaquat
@RubikaLiyaquat
भारत की ताक़त ही तो है ये कि बाइडन हो या ट्रम्प… भारत की दोस्ती चाहिए ही चाहिए….

**वैधानिक चेतावनी ये तस्वीरें बहुतों के दिल तोड़ सकती है
Translated from Hindi by
The strength of India is whether it is Biden or Trump… India's friendship is needed.

** statutory warning These pictures may break many hearts

Check the video