2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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hnair
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by hnair »

Prem Kumar wrote:
chetak wrote:is this even legally allowed in the republic of India, a two bit PM somewhere and a rag tag pot bellied "army"

Kerala have Elected their Own Is!amic Army and PM for an entity called "United Mallapuram" Jun 11, 2021
We are on a trajectory where we will lose further territory to Islam. I'd rather it be a clean affair, where we agree to a 2nd partition and keep Hindu India free from Abrahamic religions. The alternative is to lose our entire territory and lose 100s of millions to conversion or death.

If Malappuram gains independence from India, its good in a way. We can treat them as enemy territory and do what's needed.
Ok, that is not going to happen, even if we reach Planet of Apes state - Malappuram will scream and howl, but will remain in India. If we are going to post about letting go of territory because a few people dress up in green and make an ass of themselves, then what is the point of having this forum?

So, no more of breaking up of India etc, unless you want a permanent ban. Do consider this as a final warning to not just you, but to all.
Prem Kumar
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Prem Kumar »

hnair: its not in response to this one incident. But the trajectory that many parts of India are trending towards.

Anyway, point taken. No more of this.
hnair
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by hnair »

chetak wrote:is this even legally allowed in the republic of India, a two bit PM somewhere and a rag tag pot bellied "army"

and, where is pappu in all this, isn't he the sole heir apparent



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uhxkk9zxasU


Kerala have Elected their Own Is!amic Army and PM for an entity called "United Mallapuram" Jun 11, 2021



Chetak, you are posting alarmist stuff about "PM of Malapuram" etc with no background information! That video title is BS. Why it is BS? Because pisko behind this is more comical than ominous and these green-clad idiots are not even the most comical :D So here you go:

1) In the twentieth century and beyond, the most favorite dream of every two-bit malabar leader (of any party or religion or caste) is to do a Guard-of-honor and get salute from a bunch of marching humans-in-uniforms. Dont know from where these pisko-wetdreams came from, probably from grainy footage of Stalin's march pasts with heavy soviet weaponry at Red Square?

2) But.... (and this is coming from "an imperialist Travancorean yindoo snake" like moi :lol: so TFWIW) This most-favorite dream clashes with their second favorite dream - being extolled in ballads as an "outlaw leader" standing defiant against all odds, sometimes tragically ending. Despite being mostly nice folks in person, the collective psyche of malabaris for some baffling reason, digged that ballad crap for centuries. It used to be called "Vadakkan Pattukal", which are embellished balladic versions of exploits by these outlaw-herrows, sung by wandering minstrels/folkmusicians. Good fun to listen to, but alas, did not do well against Tipu and his fellow ghazis. (That needed the un-cool imperialist travancoreans to stand up and show the middle finger to the diseased ghazi-prick from Mysore)

So this affinity for balladizing as Outlaw-leader, is still there and there is a huge market in this day and age of social media. Folks consume this rubbish, even if dished out by minstrels in the thrall of the lowest level scoundrels like one P Jayarajan of CPI-M (guy is an expert on ICUs of KErala, due to his being admitted to multiple ICUs to escape arrest by CBI and hence forth called "ICU Jayarajan"). Even in 20th century, since 1921 Mappilah riots, you see this "Outlaw leader" imagery being played out. Starting from the jihadi bandit Variyan kunnath Haji to folks like AKG, Naynar, Pinarayi, MV Raghavan, the assorted Jayarajans (there are three or four interchangeable local leaders called Jayarajan among just CPI-M leadership), It goes on to other parties, with the Congress having its newly anointed KPCC president K Sudhakaran being one such with "Outlaw leader" imagery. The late K Karunakaran goes out of the way to project an "outlaw leader" out of power and Fuehrer saluting mass marchers when in power.

3) All these guys get mijjile maalish from their supporters about how bold and defiant they are and heck, some like the ICU Jayarajan has gone to the extent of getting songs written about him and photo-shopped posters of him saluting Kerala Police marching contingents from the top of an open jeep . Kid you not:

Exhibit A: Song about Outlaw Leader

Exhibit B: ICU Jayarajan's dream comes alive in a poster saying "A powerful king (pinarayi) needs a powerful senapati (ICU Jayarajan) as HM).
Image

4) Now, there is a Malabar party called IUML (Kerala's Muslim League), which oddly enough, did not have any "Outlaw Leader", despite having its ENTIRE votebank from a community that extolls strongmen since its inception. It was a paradox for the longest time. I suspect it was a way of Kerala political ecosystem keeping the genie inside the bottle. But genie did not remain in the bottle and Abdul Nasser Madani happened in the 1990s. Suddenly an "Outlaw Leader" who can be balladized came about. But there is a problem - he is from the south (Kollam area), not malabar. Also he had some uniformed jokers hanging around him with truncheons like the type carried by GS4 chaps. So the IUML got stymied at how to deal with this challenger, but not for long as can be seen further down in this writeup.

5) The secondary dream of getting into ballads is easily achievable as what happens in Malabar stays in Malabar, but the major villains to achieving the Primary ones are the uncool no-nonsensical leaders of Central and South Kerala who protest any overt show of militia style marches, unless as part of official duties (National holidays etc) by an administrator. But over past ten years, since the fadeout of VS AChuthanandan and now Oomen Chandy, Malabar leadership (Kannur in particular) is at its peak in all parties so we are seeing this herrow-worship BS a lot.


6) So where did all these marching contingents start? Ever since late-1980s early 1990s, the RSS started doing marches with lathis and uniform. First, there were protests from both UDF and LDF. Also attempts at suppression of RSS was at its peak, but a long-term sideffect was quietly happening - every two-bit malabar leader sat up and got their brainwaves after watching the awe that the disciplined RSS marches evoked among public at that time. Here is an opportunity to combine both the dreams above - "Guard of honor but as an outlaw". After that, there was no mercy on rest of Kerala.

The CPI-M started off first during their state party congress in 1990 or so.

Here is a sample to see how shoddy their drill trainers are


During the 1990s, I remember all our local tailors getting lots of work stitching menstrual-red shirts and khaki pants for the "Red Guards" which later got renamed to "Red Volunteers" after some legal issues..... anyways everyone started doing this, but until the 2010s, it was not that crazy as it is now, due to the more modest dreams of the non-Malabari leaders and their protests at this "patti-show" (dog show). Cong had their Seva Dal or some such marching contingents too, with white pants/shirt etc. The RoL oriented Kerala Congress folks had their own.

Missing initially was the Muslim League guys, as they are slow thinkers due to their not needing to prove Outlaw-anything to their hard votebanks. Despite worldwide RoP public's love affair with strongmen since its inception and around the world, the Muslim League of Kerala did not have a visible strongman. The pedophilia-accused Kunjalikutty (shown in the pic by Chetak) is trying to act like one. So they too have been forced to have these comical contingents.

Tailpiece: Pinarayi Vijayan's oft-repeated "I walked under swords held up by by RSS when studying at Brennan College" is an ultimate perversion of the two dreams. It has "turning around the enemy and making them my bijoo as a march past by an outlaw leader" in a smoothie form

That video posted by you, was by kids and teens. Incase you want to see how the Muslim League's grown men make an ass of themselves, here are some adorable photos from the album of Kerala's muslim league's marching contingents:

Image

Image

Summary: These things matter diddly to anyone in Delhi or to even rest of Kerala. These things are taken as comedy shows, when they land up in Trivandrum and leave behind all sorts of garbage (most of them come for free-trip to Trivandrum and food parcels, which they litter our streets with :evil: )
darshan
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshan »

Police detain local Hindus in Paldi protesting against “Land Jihad” and “inaction” of AMC
https://www.deshgujarat.com/2021/06/15/ ... on-of-amc/
Cain Marko
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Cain Marko »

Looks like the gloves are coming off - first time Rana Ayyub and colleagues may feel the heat:

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/twitter ... v_bigstory
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Neela »

https://www.dailypioneer.com/2021/colum ... losed.html

What really happened in Italian Marines case:
According to my information, the tussle between the ship and the boat, named Saint Antony, from Kerala started on the price of the fish. Normally Ships usually buy purchase sea food and groceries from local fish from the boats to stock groceries and meat. The fishermen in the boat and the sailors in the Italian ship argued, engaged in an argument leading to firing from the marines. All kind of Much lobbying took place was going to settle this case, while the two accused killer marines were languisheding in Kerala’s local jail.
How did India lose the grip
Modi became Prime Minister in May, 2014. As time passed, the advocates of the Italian marines’ advocate Mukul Mukul Rohatgi became India’s Attorney General and the marines’ first advocate Harish Salve got Padma Bhushan a year later in 2015. The anger was gradually fizzling out and the marines were allowed to go back to Italy and in 2016, India agreed to contest the Italian petition at the ad-hoc tribunal constituted to settle disputes related to the United Nations Convention for the Law of the Sea (which petition?) at the UN Tribunal on international shipping matters even as the Supreme Court was handling the criminal case. Why did India agree for the international tribunal’s and arbitrations when a criminal case was pending in Indian courts? The same thing happened in Vodafone and Cairn tax evasion issues when cases were going on in Indian courts. And in international tribunals, India lost the case ultimately after spending huge legal expenses running over millions of dollars.

In July 2020, as expected, the international tribunal ordered that India can only contest for compensation and criminal cases will be tried only in Italy. The Union government informed the Supreme Court that it had accepted the decision of the Permanent Court of Arbitration that the marines cannot be tried in India as they enjoyed immunity because they were exercising official duties when the incident occurred. The PCA said India was entitled to compensation for the loss of life of the fishermen and the marines’ violation of the right of navigatio
The Kerala High Court was right on the conduct of the trial but was over-ruled by the Supreme Court. The then Opposition party, BJP, did a u-turn after coming to power. A bad precedence has been set for the trial of any misdemeanor or crime committed by foreigners on Indian territory. How can we justify a foreigner killing an Indian in Indian terrain and allow his criminal trial to be conducted on foreign soil?

And the proverbial boot in the ...
First, the Italian Embassy operated through the local Church. The two victims fishermen– Ajeesh Pink and Valentine Jelastine– were also Christians. Within two months their families of the two fishermen accepted Rs 1 crore each and wrote to the police and court that they have pardoned the two Italian marines. The Italian Embassy, while providing legal help to the accused, also produced a letter from the families that “in the name of Jesus” they have pardoned the accused.
Isnt above a case of tampering the judicial process?


We are a bunch of slaves I tell you. We are.
chetak
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

Cain Marko wrote:Looks like the gloves are coming off - first time Rana Ayyub and colleagues may feel the heat:

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/twitter ... v_bigstory
is this a surgical strike on the lootyens hit mob

named in the FIR are wokes from zubair to rana ayyub, the wire, salman nizami, saba naqvi and gang.

They had a field day thus far, spreading patently false stories on twitter and other SM.

twitter has also been named for carrying these manipulative tweets
chetak
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

It will be interesting to see how things play out for jack after twitter India complies.

Will the GoI politely restore twitter India's status quo ante as an intermediary or let jack have it with both barrels as he deserves


Image


The 26% question looms for twitter India
via@MinhazMerchant
Tanaji
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Tanaji »

GoI has still not revoked the intermediary status. Prasad refused to confirm this in the press conference, so all such reports are conjecture. There is no official notification yet either.
chetak
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

This is from yesterday's Hindu, quoted a few posts ago
According to an official source, due to non-compliance with the new IT Rules, Twitter may no longer be classified as an intermediary, and there will be no separate order from the government on this. By losing its intermediary status, the U.S.-headquartered social media platform can now be held liable for any content posted by any user on its platform.





What happened in UP was illustrative of Twitter’s arbitrariness in fighting fake news: RS Prasad hits out on Twitter after it loses its safety net

UP government files FIR against Twitter

The Uttar Pradesh Government has initiated action against Twitter India for failing to take down tweets that spread misinformation about a crime in the state. An FIR has been lodged against the social media platform in connection with the same.

This comes after the legal immunity that was provided to Twitter over content moderation in the country is officially over now.
Tanaji
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Tanaji »

https://indianexpress.com/article/techn ... d-7361453/
While Prasad questioned Twitter on its refusal to comply with the new IT Rules 2021, which were notified in February, he was non-committal on whether Twitter has lost its status as a social media intermediary.
I am not convinced that the GoI will take action.
chetak
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

The commies are gathering....

always keeping in mind, the interest of the public, that the govt of the day can make laws/may amend existing laws as it sees fit, nullifying or reversing opinions to the contrary.

shahbano being a case in point



Image
Last edited by chetak on 16 Jun 2021 17:51, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Ambar »

Swarajya finally catches up to what we've been discussing on this forum for over an year now.
To win a third successive term, Modi will have to abandon sainthood and rediscover the political streetfighter that resides within him.

If this was an international football game and Prime Minister Narendra Modi India’s coach, eyebrows would be raised. With so much talent in the team, why are players capable of winning matches warming the bench?

A cabinet reshuffle is long overdue. Jyotiraditya Scindia and Jay Panda are two men who could add much-needed gravitas to the council of ministers. Other ministers whose talent could be more widely used in a cabinet reshuffle include Nitin Gadkari and Piyush Goyal.

Sidelined former ministers like Rajyavardhan Rathore are meanwhile being wasted on the bench. An Olympic Games silver medalist, Rathore would take the burden off the affable Prakash Javadekar who does justice to neither the environment nor information and broadcasting ministry.

He should be relieved of at least one of these. Ravi Shankar Prasad too is over-taxed with two vital ministries — law and justice and information technology. He should concentrate on one.

The Prime Minister is clearly not pleased with the performance of several ministers. He has sought presentations from each ministry on pledged outcomes over the past two years.

A better option is to make it mandatory for every minister to upload on the ministry’s website a monthly report on targets and outcomes along with new initiatives planned with timelines. A monthly management information system (MIS) is indispensable in the corporate sector. It is even more critical in government to improve public accountability.

All this is necessary as Modi gears up for what could be the most challenging period in his prime ministership. The Opposition is coalescing. The experiment of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) coalition government in Maharashtra comprising the right-wing Shiv Sena, left-wing Congress and minority-leaning Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) has been more successful than most expected.

Can such an ideologically disparate coalition government work at the Centre? NCP leader Sharad Pawar, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal think it can. They have willing accomplices in Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party, Tejashwi Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal and several other regional parties.

The elephant in the room is the Congress. Like an ageing, cantankerous uncle, it refuses to go away and make room for other Opposition leaders, allowing the Gandhi family to take a back seat.

Of course that has happened once before. In 1996-98, the Congress supported the United Front coalition government from outside. It let, first, H D Deve Gowda and then, Inder Kumar Gujral be appointed prime minister before toppling each within less than a year.

But there is a big difference in the Congress’ internal dynamic between 1996-98 and 2021-24. In 1996, Sonia Gandhi was still grieving, following her husband Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination five years earlier.

P V Narasimha Rao had been appointed prime minister in the 1991-96 Congress government. From 1992-96, he served as Congress president before handing over charge to Sitaram Kesri. It was a rare period when a Gandhi was neither prime minister nor Congress president.

In 1996, Rahul Gandhi was 26, Priyanka Gandhi 24. The family could afford to wait.

In 1998, Sonia swung into action. She removed Kesri and installed herself as Congress president. Ever since, only a Gandhi – Sonia or Rahul – has held that position.

But 2024 will be different for two reasons. One, Sonia Gandhi knows that if the Opposition, comprising regional satraps like Mamata Banerjee, Pawar and the two Yadavs, stitch together 150-plus seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, it would need the support of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance or UPA (including the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and others) to get past 272 seats.

Sonia Gandhi, though unwell, remains interim president of the Congress and head of the UPA. She has lost none of her political instincts and may, as in 1996, play along with the “Third Front”, supporting it from outside to deny the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) a third successive term, biding time for Rahul Gandhi’s eventual ascension. That may or may not ever happen, but politics is the art of the possible.

The second key factor is choosing a prime ministerial face among the regional Opposition leaders. As he did in Maharashtra, Pawar will play a crucial role. He will shrewdly suggest that the Opposition leader whose party wins the highest number of Lok Sabha seats in 2024 should be the coalition’s consensus prime minister.

If Pawar announces this before the 2024 Lok Sabha poll, it will solve the problem of a ragtag coalition fighting a general election without a prime ministerial face and end infighting among regional leaders. If India could live with a relatively unknown regional leader like Deve Gowda as prime minister in 1996, Pawar will argue, why can’t it live with a Mamata Banerjee in 2024?

The question could of course become academic if Modi uses the next two-and-a-half years, before on-ground campaigning for the 2024 general election begins in real earnest, to do three things:

One, overcome the Covid pandemic with an effective vaccination rollout by end-2021, along with a vastly improved healthcare infrastructure;

Two, infuse more talent in the Union cabinet with monthly reporting on outcomes from each ministry;

Three, boost the economy with enhanced government spending to create a post-Covid consumption boom and new jobs.

There are favourable signs that economic growth in 2021-22 could beat estimates and cross 10 per cent. Startups are buzzing. Stocks are on fire. Corporate profits have risen steeply. Exports are likely to hit an historic high of $400 billion this fiscal. Foreign investment is pouring into both manufacturing and services.

As Punit Renjen, global chief executive officer of Deloitte, told The Economic Times earlier this month: “India is a very attractive destination. And it is attractive because the fundamentals are attractive: the talent pool, the demographics, the consumer base, the democratic tradition.”

The downside is that Modi faces seven tough assembly elections, including Uttar Pradesh, in 2022 and three tricky ones in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh in late 2023, months before the Lok Sabha poll. Anti-incumbency is rife.

The Centre’s inaction in the face of continuing incidents of murder and rape in West Bengal by Trinamool Congress workers, compelling the Supreme Court to hear the victims’ PILs, has alienated the BJP’s core base.

To win a third successive term, Modi will have to abandon sainthood and rediscover the political streetfighter that resides within him.
darshhan
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshhan »

Another one from Swarajya relating to West Bengal.

From The Ground: Ten Reasons Why BJP Lost Bengal (And Doesn't Seem To Learn From The Defeat)
Much has been written about Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) loss in Bengal, various causes and factors have been analysed and over analysed, many reasons have been given and many excuses shared.

What has gone unspoken is the failure of BJP central leadership in understanding Bengal and how their lack of support to local leadership is at the very core of why the party lost.

Here are the 10 reasons, why I think, the BJP lost Bengal.

One, failure to protect the grassroots workers. The BJP central leadership’s failure to protect the lives of grassroots party workers is one of the main reasons for its defeat. The silence of the central leadership during and after the 2018 panchayat elections, when Trinamool Congress (TMC) went on a rampage, has cost the BJP.

One of the reasons for that in turn, is that people in rural Bengal, especially the political fence-sitters, feared TMC retaliation in case they voted for the national party and Trinamool came to power.

The ongoing violence in Bengal and the lack of BJP central leadership’s will to take serious action against a government that is enabling this violence has proven the voters right.

Two, failure to show confidence in party leaders from Bengal. The people of Bengal elected 18 BJP Members of Parliament (MPs) in 2019 general elections. Given how violent 2018 panchayat elections were, it took immense courage on part of the 40.7 per cent voters that voted for the saffron party.

TMC held the lead, but by only of 2.6 percentage points (total 43.3 per cent).

Yet, even after getting 18 MPs from Bengal, the party’s central leadership failed to show any gratitude towards the people of the state. Not a single BJP leader from the state was made a cabinet minister.

There are two ministers of state from Bengal, but not a single cabinet minister. People in Bengal saw that as a rebuff from the central leadership, and this also exhibited a lack of confidence on the part of the party high command towards state leaders.

This shook the voters’ faith in BJP leaders from the state. They perceived Bengal BJP leaders as being not worthy enough to be in leadership positions or in positions of power.

Three, no big ticket announcements for Bengal. BJP has widely been accused of ignoring the developmental needs of areas that have supported them. TMC leaders have used this fact to encourage people to vote against BJP.
For example, BJP has won from Darjeeling Lok Sabha seat since 2009 and yet not a single centrally-funded big-ticket project has been announced for the place.


Issues like the establishment of a central university, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Indian Institute of Management, National Institute of Technology etc, are well within the central government’s domain, yet no such announcements were made for the region.

This fact is showcased by TMC in other places and this has discouraged many from voting for BJP.

Four, non-fulfillment of promises by BJP. Had it not been for the utmost neglect and apathy shown by TMC towards North Bengal, BJP would have lost all seats in Darjeeling Hills, Terai and Dooars region too.

This region has voted for BJP since 2009, yet the party has not done anything to address the promises of resolving Gorkhaland issue or granting Scheduled Tribe (ST) status for the Gorkha sub-tribes.

The fact this region elected BJP candidates for 11 out of 13 MLAs this time around (Kalimpong and Malbazar seats lost with thin margins of less than 5,000 votes), was more due to the goodwill and hard work done by the local leaders like the MP of Darjeeling, Raju Bista, and John Barla of Alipurduars.

Five, no Bengali face. Lack of cabinet ministers from Bengal worked negatively against BJP, as they did not have any Bengali face with a national stature or someone whom people would perceive as being equal to Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. In the absence of a local Bengali face, people voted for the party whose leader they could instantly connect with — Banerjee and TMC.

Six, lack of a CM face. The lack of a credible chief ministerial face against Banerjee cost the BJP dearly. Projecting this election as a fight between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Banerjee helped her grow in stature in the eyes of the voters not only in Bengal but across India too. Now she has emerged as the main face of opposition against BJP and particularly against Modi. She is set to become the lightning rod for opposition resurgence across India.
.......
Whenever the opportunity presented, BJP leaders here spoke about what will the party do after coming to power, and how it will be different from the TMC, instead of focusing on religious identity. This helped BJP win 11 out of 13 seats.

However, BJP failed in generating a proper narrative, and it ended up playing on the turf prepared by I-PAC and TMC, for which they were least prepared.

A Bleaker Future

Despite more than 20 BJP supporters being murdered after the elections across Bengal, and stories of rapes and forced migrations, the Prime Minister, who is also the face of BJP, is yet to even condemn these acts of violence. Let alone speak about it, PM Modi has not even tweeted against it.

In contrast, Banerjee stands up for everyone who is loyal to her. Be it her Narada-tainted ministers or her chief secretary, she has gone out of her way to protect those who work for her.


If BJP continues on the path they currently are and refuse to confront the perpetrators of heinous crimes head-on, they will be obliterated, not just from Bengal but from all over India.
KL Dubey
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KL Dubey »

Tanaji wrote:https://indianexpress.com/article/techn ... d-7361453/
While Prasad questioned Twitter on its refusal to comply with the new IT Rules 2021, which were notified in February, he was non-committal on whether Twitter has lost its status as a social media intermediary.
I am not convinced that the GoI will take action.
Maybe I missed something - what is the action that GoI is supposed to take now ?

It was already made clear the legal protection will expire and no separate order will be issued (indeed, it is not clear why the GoI start issuing separate orders for every company that does not comply).

Now that Twitter has lost legal protection, anyone can bring cases related to fake news. The UP police seems to have filed the first FIR.
darshan
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshan »

darshan wrote:
Police detain local Hindus in Paldi protesting against “Land Jihad” and “inaction” of AMC
https://www.deshgujarat.com/2021/06/15/ ... on-of-amc/
It's a too tall of a task to ask BJP to deal with Bengal issues when it can't even deal with issues in GJ. There are less than handful of cases that one can remember of GJ BJP enforcing law to save properties in the buffer zone. They don't have to make the laws but just enforce. Think about it. Not only they have failed to recover properties from the old buffer zones that have become Muslim areas but they have also failed to prevent from new properties and businesses being acquired in unlawful manners. Similarly they haven't designated various areas as buffer zones.


https://www.deshgujarat.com/2018/06/03/ ... had-issue/
Last edited by darshan on 16 Jun 2021 20:15, edited 1 time in total.
KL Dubey
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KL Dubey »

chetak wrote:It will be interesting to see how things play out for jack after twitter India complies.

Will the GoI politely restore twitter India's status quo ante as an intermediary or let jack have it with both barrels as he deserves
The objective here is to eliminate fake news by holding platforms accountable, and not to "let XYZ have it with both barrels". The GOI is not doing vigilante action here. Any company including twitter can apply for receiving/restoring the intermediary status and show proof of compliance. I am not sure there is any politeness involved.
darshhan
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshhan »

BJP top leaders should take tuitions from the male lion in this clip on how to protect Hindus including their own cadres and supporters from MB type crocodiles. They should inculcate honor and strength.

KL Dubey
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KL Dubey »

BTW: are "darshan" and "darshhan" handles the same person ? Both seem to make the exact same kind of posts.

Mods, this is really approaching SPAM level.
darshhan
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshhan »

KL Dubey wrote:BTW: are "darshan" and "darshhan" handles the same person ? Both seem to make the exact same kind of posts.

Mods, this is really approaching SPAM level.
KL ji, kindly do not reduce BRF to BJP IT Cell platform. BRF does not stand for BJP Rakshak Forum.

There are fundamental deficiencies with BJP leadership today which if not corrected will only lead to their decline. I am not questioning their performance in welfare programs, infrastructure creation or even defence preparedness compared to previous regimes. But we should also point out their flaws. Today there is still 3 years from next general elections. If they decide to course correct now, they can do it. By 2023 it will be too late.
KLNMurthy
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KLNMurthy »

KL Dubey wrote:BTW: are "darshan" and "darshhan" handles the same person ? Both seem to make the exact same kind of posts.

Mods, this is really approaching SPAM level.
So, now you want posters to be shut down because, what, they are posting more than you prefer?

Ridiculous.
nandakumar
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by nandakumar »

darshhan wrote:Another one from Swarajya relating to West Bengal.

From The Ground: Ten Reasons Why BJP Lost Bengal (And Doesn't Seem To Learn From The Defeat)
Much has been written about Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) loss in Bengal, various causes and factors have been analysed and over analysed, many reasons have been given and many excuses shared.

What has gone unspoken is the failure of BJP central leadership in understanding Bengal and how their lack of support to local leadership is at the very core of why the party lost.

Here are the 10 reasons, why I think, the BJP lost Bengal.

One, failure to protect the grassroots workers. The BJP central leadership’s failure to protect the lives of grassroots party workers is one of the main reasons for its defeat. The silence of the central leadership during and after the 2018 panchayat elections, when Trinamool Congress (TMC) went on a rampage, has cost the BJP.

One of the reasons for that in turn, is that people in rural Bengal, especially the political fence-sitters, feared TMC retaliation in case they voted for the national party and Trinamool came to power.

The ongoing violence in Bengal and the lack of BJP central leadership’s will to take serious action against a government that is enabling this violence has proven the voters right.

Two, failure to show confidence in party leaders from Bengal. The people of Bengal elected 18 BJP Members of Parliament (MPs) in 2019 general elections. Given how violent 2018 panchayat elections were, it took immense courage on part of the 40.7 per cent voters that voted for the saffron party.

TMC held the lead, but by only of 2.6 percentage points (total 43.3 per cent).

Yet, even after getting 18 MPs from Bengal, the party’s central leadership failed to show any gratitude towards the people of the state. Not a single BJP leader from the state was made a cabinet minister.

There are two ministers of state from Bengal, but not a single cabinet minister. People in Bengal saw that as a rebuff from the central leadership, and this also exhibited a lack of confidence on the part of the party high command towards state leaders.

This shook the voters’ faith in BJP leaders from the state. They perceived Bengal BJP leaders as being not worthy enough to be in leadership positions or in positions of power.

Three, no big ticket announcements for Bengal. BJP has widely been accused of ignoring the developmental needs of areas that have supported them. TMC leaders have used this fact to encourage people to vote against BJP.
For example, BJP has won from Darjeeling Lok Sabha seat since 2009 and yet not a single centrally-funded big-ticket project has been announced for the place.


Issues like the establishment of a central university, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Indian Institute of Management, National Institute of Technology etc, are well within the central government’s domain, yet no such announcements were made for the region.

This fact is showcased by TMC in other places and this has discouraged many from voting for BJP.

Four, non-fulfillment of promises by BJP. Had it not been for the utmost neglect and apathy shown by TMC towards North Bengal, BJP would have lost all seats in Darjeeling Hills, Terai and Dooars region too.

This region has voted for BJP since 2009, yet the party has not done anything to address the promises of resolving Gorkhaland issue or granting Scheduled Tribe (ST) status for the Gorkha sub-tribes.

The fact this region elected BJP candidates for 11 out of 13 MLAs this time around (Kalimpong and Malbazar seats lost with thin margins of less than 5,000 votes), was more due to the goodwill and hard work done by the local leaders like the MP of Darjeeling, Raju Bista, and John Barla of Alipurduars.

Five, no Bengali face. Lack of cabinet ministers from Bengal worked negatively against BJP, as they did not have any Bengali face with a national stature or someone whom people would perceive as being equal to Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. In the absence of a local Bengali face, people voted for the party whose leader they could instantly connect with — Banerjee and TMC.

Six, lack of a CM face. The lack of a credible chief ministerial face against Banerjee cost the BJP dearly. Projecting this election as a fight between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Banerjee helped her grow in stature in the eyes of the voters not only in Bengal but across India too. Now she has emerged as the main face of opposition against BJP and particularly against Modi. She is set to become the lightning rod for opposition resurgence across India.
.......
Whenever the opportunity presented, BJP leaders here spoke about what will the party do after coming to power, and how it will be different from the TMC, instead of focusing on religious identity. This helped BJP win 11 out of 13 seats.

However, BJP failed in generating a proper narrative, and it ended up playing on the turf prepared by I-PAC and TMC, for which they were least prepared.

A Bleaker Future

Despite more than 20 BJP supporters being murdered after the elections across Bengal, and stories of rapes and forced migrations, the Prime Minister, who is also the face of BJP, is yet to even condemn these acts of violence. Let alone speak about it, PM Modi has not even tweeted against it.

In contrast, Banerjee stands up for everyone who is loyal to her. Be it her Narada-tainted ministers or her chief secretary, she has gone out of her way to protect those who work for her.


If BJP continues on the path they currently are and refuse to confront the perpetrators of heinous crimes head-on, they will be obliterated, not just from Bengal but from all over India.
Regarding your first point quoted below
"One, failure to protect the grassroots workers. The BJP central leadership’s failure to protect the lives of grassroots party workers is one of the main reasons for its defeat. The silence of the central leadership during and after the 2018 panchayat elections, when Trinamool Congress (TMC) went on a rampage, has cost the BJP."
How exactly they are supposed to protect?
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshhan »

nandakumar wrote:
darshhan wrote:Another one from Swarajya relating to West Bengal.

From The Ground: Ten Reasons Why BJP Lost Bengal (And Doesn't Seem To Learn From The Defeat)
Regarding your first point quoted below
"One, failure to protect the grassroots workers. The BJP central leadership’s failure to protect the lives of grassroots party workers is one of the main reasons for its defeat. The silence of the central leadership during and after the 2018 panchayat elections, when Trinamool Congress (TMC) went on a rampage, has cost the BJP."
How exactly they are supposed to protect?
I have quoted a swarajya article. So why question me?.

But anyways I will try to answer your question. Their are ways to protect your supporters and those ways cannot be discussed on a public forum or a public magazine like swarajya. And that is why the author of the article hasn't delved deeper into this matter.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Ambar »

The author hasn't delved deeper into the matter because he too is clueless but good at filling space with words. Its a democracy, you win elections and you lose elections. Its a country with over 30 crore "minorities". If you are looking for the govt to send military tanks and bulldozers or removing democratically elected CMs, then maybe you are living in the wrong country. It is pointless and tiring to repeat the same things over and over again, and at some point one begins to suspect a malicious intent behind such posts.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Ambar »

darshhan wrote:
KL Dubey wrote:BTW: are "darshan" and "darshhan" handles the same person ? Both seem to make the exact same kind of posts.

Mods, this is really approaching SPAM level.
KL ji, kindly do not reduce BRF to BJP IT Cell platform. BRF does not stand for BJP Rakshak Forum.
You are right, it isn't. So pray tell us why are you taking it out on BJP and Modi in every single post ? Is WB law and order situation a state subject or a central subject ? You don't seem to question Mamata or Uddhav or Kejri but want to haul Modi and BJP on coals for everything all the while claiming its not about BJP.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Cyrano »

All that swarajya says about the political situation is fine. But they got the street fighter part wrong.

Modi & BJP have to do all the development works by appointing go getter ministers, but they need to come back to basics and consolidate their voter base. The Nationalistic Hindu voter.

As incumbent Govt at the center for 2 terms, they will face anti incumbency in various pockets. Not let the core voter base fritter away will not be achieved by development alone. Indian voter votes with his head and heart. Like voters all over the world.

Discourse (or narrative if you prefer) is very important. The Govt & the BJP party need to communicate a lot, with one voice and simple, strong messages about the results achieved to secure the head.

And move forward on the Hindu agenda (doesn't matter if it was in their manifesto or not, they know the expectations of the core base all too well) to achieve some and get tantalisingly close to other items so that the heart sees the justification to give them a third mandate. An external event like a Paki or Chini misadventure will make it easy, but such events don't care for election timelines and cannot be counted on to win hearts.

This has to be a conscious, continuous effort from now on. That is being a winning street fighter.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ramana »

The author Upendra Pradhan has a very superficial understanding of the loss and is regurgitating TMC propaganda. BTW here is a classic essay on cow being written on BJP loss in West Bengal. He has only one point and writes it as ten points.

The 2019 election showed the limits of BJP support. To grow you need to attract more people. Only ten TMC candidates got the seats to contest, and all were those who committed to join BJP early on. If old-timers feel neglect it is very petty and sad to sabotage the party. The TMC defectors will return to TMC and the violence that will be unleashed will be on old-timer BJP only.

In the Kakatiya loss to Tughlaq, one court faction showed up late to the battle to teach the king their importance. By the time they showed up, the battle was lost and the king captured.
And guess who bore the brunt of Tughlaq atrocities? It was those who showed up late for the others died in the battle or joined Tughlaq.
This is always a dark lesson. Never dis your leader during a fight and give full support for the head that is chopped could/would be yours.

Also, please always put the author's name so we don't waste our time.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshhan »

Ambar wrote:
darshhan wrote:
KL ji, kindly do not reduce BRF to BJP IT Cell platform. BRF does not stand for BJP Rakshak Forum.
You are right, it isn't. So pray tell us why are you taking it out on BJP and Modi in every single post ? Is WB law and order situation a state subject or a central subject ? You don't seem to question Mamata or Uddhav or Kejri but want to haul Modi and BJP on coals for everything all the while claiming its not about BJP.
Those being killed are exclusively hindus and BJP supporters/cadre. Why would mumtaz or uddhav care about them? It is their Party top leadership who should be out in front protecting their cadres from being butchered mercilessly.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshhan »

ramana wrote:The author Upendra Pradhan has a very superficial understanding of the loss and is regurgitating TMC propaganda. BTW here is a classic essay on cow being written on BJP loss in West Bengal. He has only one point and writes it as ten points.

The 2019 election showed the limits of BJP support. To grow you need to attract more people. Only ten TMC candidates got the seats to contest, and all were those who committed to join BJP early on. If old-timers feel neglect it is very petty and sad to sabotage the party. The TMC defectors will return to TMC and the violence that will be unleashed will be on old-timer BJP only.

In the Kakatiya loss to Tughlaq, one court faction showed up late to the battle to teach the king their importance. By the time they showed up, the battle was lost and the king captured.
And guess who bore the brunt of Tughlaq atrocities? It was those who showed up late for the others died in the battle or joined Tughlaq.
This is always a dark lesson. Never dis your leader during a fight and give full support for the head that is chopped could/would be yours.

Also, please always put the author's name so we don't waste our time.
I agree with you that author has written a shallow article. Personally speaking our own Rahul M has done a better analysis.

I myself do not like to cross question or second guess our leaders during a fight. However they should atleast start fighting. Here it is a one sided massacre and humiliation for Hindus in many parts of WB and other parts of India too. Hard to support a leader when he is not even interested in fighting.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KL Dubey »

KLNMurthy wrote:
KL Dubey wrote:BTW: are "darshan" and "darshhan" handles the same person ? Both seem to make the exact same kind of posts.

Mods, this is really approaching SPAM level.
So, now you want posters to be shut down because, what, they are posting more than you prefer?

Ridiculous.
No, I didn't say that. Posting continuously on random incidents, all with the same objective/message of how the government and BJP doesn't care about Hindus, is indeed spam. Not strategic/political analysis or commentary. I'm sure you know the difference.

I am not in any way affiliated to the BJP IT cell.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by venkat_kv »

darshhan wrote:
Ambar wrote:
You are right, it isn't. So pray tell us why are you taking it out on BJP and Modi in every single post ? Is WB law and order situation a state subject or a central subject ? You don't seem to question Mamata or Uddhav or Kejri but want to haul Modi and BJP on coals for everything all the while claiming its not about BJP.
Those being killed are exclusively hindus and BJP supporters/cadre. Why would mumtaz or uddhav care about them? It is their Party top leadership who should be out in front protecting their cadres from being butchered mercilessly.
Darshhan saar,
actually i have heard something more in an analysis. The people who bore the brunt were BJP supporters and not just hindus and there have been cases of a muslim candidate's wife being raped by fellow Ropers because they campaigned for BJP. I don't have any proof of the same just going by an analyst who is very sober and not a Arnab kind. maybe we will hear more in a year or so.
The question that needs to be asked is actually not of Narendra Modi but of Mamata and the "secular" press that is extremely silent on the post poll violence. the same behavior in a BJP state would have all the vultures camping overnight and writing ballads and poetry.

But I am also hoping to hear from any BJP supporter as to what the strategy of BJP is with the silence on the violence that has been unleashed. is this more of an act, as pointed by Rudradev by trying to put on cases and highlight the atrocities? I am not expecting them to go in with central forces and all but something from the leadership or BJP brass about taking care of the people displaced due to violence would put them in good stead.

Right now the twitter verse is abound with the BJP not doing anything for its core workers and so on.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by venkat_kv »

Also i wanted to ask people with SM presence here like in teethar if they have actually faced IT cell attacks from so called BJP supporters. Before any Mod comes and says that I have to dig my own data and not ask others for it, this is my reasoning.

I have no teethar proflie and haven't been on muhpustak in ages. But there are some profiles that i do watch occasionally in teethar, our own Shiv Saar, rohitvats, Ramana saar, Suraj. a profile called atheist krishna who was a BJP supporter (atleast i think he is) quit teethar on the charge that IT cell attacked him when he lashed out at HM Amit Sah and Center during the Maoist attack that killed 20 odd forces in March-April time frame in Chattisgarh on why they are not doing anything or some such. Same charge repeated by "the skin doctor" during the second wave when BJP was seen helping the Vinod Dua and he wanted them to help their supporters first.
I keep listening to the same charge by Ajit Bharti who is now operating an online platform of DOPOLITICS in you tube that he was attacked by IT cell guys when he questioned the Center on hindu issues.
He also like our resident darsh(h)an saar keeps telling that BJP has cheated/stopped caring about the core Hindu voters.

The same analyst that I follow, made a point immediately after Bengal Elections that a lot of fake profiles with Hindu sounding names are tweeting that the PM doesn't care about hindu causes and lives and most of these tweets were traced back to Turkey, pakis and Srilanka( :shock: this one is a surprise). the end goal is to create doubts in the average Hindu voter and get atleast 2-4 % to not vote and reduce BJP's tally in the next elections that they don't have a majority and open doors for maha thugbandan types.

The ROPers don't have any such pretensions and vote whole heartedly for their secular parties whether they get anything done or not to improve their lives.

there was a recent report that facebook has shut down quite a few fake accounts with about 40,000 coming from the land of pakis and it was run by an ad agency for which ISPR was also a client. Hence my question now if at all these attacks are co-ordinated to cause disruption in own camp.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Ambar »

I have immense respect and admiration for Ajit Bharati but the other 2 names you mention have a history. One has to read their tweets between 2018 post assembly election drubbing of BJP upto 2019 general elections to get a clue. You need steadfast supporters and not fair weather friends. As for BJP "cheating" its supporters, ask yourself which other party has fulfilled any promise from their manifesto let alone fulfill more than half of them in a term and a half, they are doing it without the backing of the ecosystem and fighting against an outright partisan media, judges, bureaucrats, law enforcement, they are fighting with both hands tied to their back.

As for Bengal, the local problems require local solutions. Mamata Banerjee went through hell herself in the 90s and 00s with both Congress at the center and commies in WB trying to crush her but she prevailed. BJP WB has to lead the fight and not Modi and Shah. The party and the govt at the center have used every tool at their disposal short of the nuclear option. This isnt the 60s or 70s when Congress could dismiss CMs willy nilly with media cheerleading, if BJP dismisses a democratically elected govt. then be prepared for BJP lead governments in other states to be dismissed when the opposition is in power.

Bottom-line, constantly whining and question Modi, Shah or BJP does not help, there are enough people doing that already including the mainstream media. The least one can do is explore solutions because listing problems is easy.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshhan »

Where Modi ji works well, credit should be given to him.

246-year-old Ordnance Factory Board scrapped; 7 new companies to take over
In a major decision of the Union Cabinet, the Ordnance Factory Board (OFB), first set up by the British in 1775, now under the Ministry of Defence will cease to exist.

Seven separate companies are planned to be created, each doing a specific manufacturing role. The existing 41 factories under the OFB will be subsumed under one or the other of the seven new companies, all 100 per cent government owned public sector undertakings (PSU).

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh on Wednesday evening said, “I can assure the OFB employees (approx. 70,000) that their service conditions remain the same. The pensions and post-retirement benefits too shall remain the same.”

The seven new – yet to be named—PSU entities will cover a separate sector. One will be the ‘Ammunition and Explosives group’. This will engage in production of ammunition of various calibre and explosives, not only for the Make in India initiative but also for exports.

The ‘Vehicles group’ would engage in production of defence mobility and combat vehicles such as Tanks, Trawls, BMP and Mine Protected Vehicles.

‘Weapons & Equipment group’ would engage in production of small arms, medium and large calibre guns and other weapon systems. This was expected to increase the share in the domestic market through meeting domestic demand as well as product diversification.

The other four companies would be ‘Troop Comfort Items group’, ‘Ancillary group’, ‘Opto-Electronics group’ and ‘Parachute group’.

Each of these PSU’s would subsume the 41 OFB factories on the basis of type of manufacturing. OFB factories produce tanks, artillery guns, heavy vehicles, specialised wires, rifles, ammunition etc.

It was in 1775 that British authorities accepted the establishment of Board of Ordnance in Fort William, Kolkata.

In 1787 a gun powder factory was established at Ishapore West Bengal which started production from 1791. The British set up 18 ordnance factories and the rest have come up after India became independent in 1947. “This move would allow these companies autonomy as well as help improve accountability and efficiency,” Rajnath Singh said.

The restructuring is aimed at transforming the Ordnance Factories into productive and profitable assets; deepen specialisation in the product range; enhance competitiveness; improving quality and cost-efficiency

The new structure is aimed to overcome various shortcomings in the existing system and provide these companies opportunities in the market including exports.

The prime customers of Ordnance Factories are the Indian Armed Forces. The requirements of other customers like Central Paramilitary Forces, State Police Forces for arms, ammunition, clothing, bulletproof vehicles and mine protected vehicles are also met from the OFB.

The government has also decided to delegate the authority of the Cabinet to the Empowered Group of Ministers, constituted under the minister of defence, to decide upon the matters related to implementation of the aforesaid government decisions and other incidental matters.

Rajnath Singh heads this empowered group of ministers and has the home minister, the finance minister, the minister for labour and minister of state in the PMO.
ramana
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ramana »

Good move. Making them into DPSUs was the result of many years of churn on Mil Forum...
And not by usual jingoes.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KL Dubey »

Not sure what you are implying. Are you saying that "many years of churn (manthan) on the BRF Mil Forum" influenced the goremint to take the DPSU decision ? If so, what was the mechanics of that process?
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by rsingh »

ramana wrote:Good move. Making them into DPSUs was the result of many years of churn on Mil Forum...
And not by usual jingoes.
Saar, usual jingos are not that bad. They keep moral high at the time of Dhoni shivering while intellectuals are busy in churning things with toothpicks
https://youtu.be/Lf7fUYUs2sk
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

Image
chetak
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

Major and serial fiascos by one "IT company", First the MCA portal, then the GST portal and now the new Income Tax portal.

No lessons learned despite three mule kicks to the Govt's credibility and reputation

In all three cases, it is the Modi govt that has ultimately been saddled with the blame


They had three jobs, right in the sweet spot of their alleged core competency and they messed up all of them




The press seems to be silent on these major fiascos by a so called IT company owned by wokes

three gigantic fiascos in a row and a pathetic performance every single time, wantonly subjecting the country and the Govt to international ridicule and mockery

Once is happenstance. Twice is a coincidence. Three times is enemy action

for a aapi paapi, congi, commie filled top management, even the very first time was premeditated enemy action.

The MCA portal was fine when TCS was handling from mid 2000.

and all three contracts have quite dubiously gone to the same company, despite failure to complete any of the projects on time, on budget and on specs, the Modi govt has persisted with these losers, just like it did with RRR and ultimately paid the price for incubating a cuckoo's egg in the BJP nest

It seems like the words requirements docs, testing and coding is an anathema to this "world class" company

anywhere else in the world, these jokers would have been permanently blacklisted from bidding ever again, sued tight down to their langotes for breach of contract and legally taken to the cleaners for every penny that they had
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Haresh »

I wonder who's agenda they will be pushing ???

Christians in Punjab to form Shiromani Church Parbandhak Committee

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cit ... 151215.cms
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