2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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chetak
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

nandakumar wrote:The NJAC was perfectly constitutional too. What is more, this was a law that had political consensus across parties. Yet the SC found a way to strike it down. The point the SC is right no matter what because it is the last word on any subject.

the NJAC is our right and it cannot be usurped by anyone

the striking down went unchallenged and that was a mistake

It will happen sooner rather than later

when the appointment of the CBI director needs a three-member committee comprising of the Prime Minister, the leader of the opposition (LoP) and the chief justice of India (CJI) or a senior Supreme Court judge nominated by the CJI.

So, in a democracy, how can anyone just gang up to appoint themselves.

whatever happened to the original culinary flavor of the constitution, and the spoonery, forkery, and cutlery, the mechanics, as it were, of the democratic process, as envisaged by the people who wrote the original

sauce, goose, gander: what happened to all that, no...........
Last edited by chetak on 22 Nov 2021 17:42, edited 1 time in total.
Rony
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Rony »

YSR party/Jagan Reddy govt in Andhra Pradesh withdraws 3 capitals bill. Protests were happening since long for its reversal in Amaravati area . This happened after Amit Shah's visit to the state and state BJP came out supporting those protests. Jagan Reddy says he will reintroduce 3 capitals bill after improvements and more explanation.
chetak
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

the rantings and ravings of a congi loser

they never seem to learn

this eternal darbari urgently needs chilly flavored brain medicine suppositories


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Aarvee
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Aarvee »

Rony wrote:YSR party/Jagan Reddy govt in Andhra Pradesh withdraws 3 capitals bill. Protests were happening since long for its reversal in Amaravati area . This happened after Amit Shah's visit to the state and state BJP came out supporting those protests. Jagan Reddy says he will reintroduce 3 capitals bill after improvements and more explanation.
Tin foil hat on- Are we getting ready for something? Something much more serious? To be ready for it, is the Govt just compromising on certain internal issues so they can focus on whatever properly?
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Cyrano »

Nothing will happen. And that will be the Govt's victory over a secret threat no one knows or can talk about.

If something happens, the govt is still vindicated because "we vaguely hinted so".

That's master stroke vaad for you.

Nevermind that they failed to do their jobs properly despite being voted into power with clear and thumping majority for 2 terms and having all the means of the state at their disposal for 7 consecutive years.

These are not some unforeseeable alien invasion threats, even my grandmother can put pakis and khalistanis together. However we sophisticated BRFites must connect invisible dots and come up with an invincible explanation!

The good thing is this security threat excuse has been used. That will force the Govt to work really hard to come up with a new one for the next faceplant.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

Cyrano wrote:Nothing will happen. And that will be the Govt's victory over a secret threat no one knows or can talk about.

If something happens, the govt is still vindicated because "we vaguely hinted so".

That's master stroke vaad for you.

Nevermind that they failed to do their jobs properly despite being voted into power with clear and thumping majority for 2 terms and having all the means of the state at their disposal for 7 consecutive years.

These are not some unforeseeable alien invasion threats, even my grandmother can put pakis and khalistanis together. However we sophisticated BRFites must connect invisible dots and come up with an invincible explanation!

The good thing is this security threat excuse has been used. That will force the Govt to work really hard to come up with a new one for the next faceplant.
it took about 60 years to grow a pair to show to the cheenis

wonder when the same will happen with the BIF funded "minorities"
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Aditya_V »

When you have an AK 47 in hand and other person has a knife, every one will be confrontational. But if multiple enemies with multiple strategies, you dont not do a suicidal charge and throw it all away.

I was very disappointed in May 2004, then I realised many people (not all there are gems of persons) in Slums vote based on cash for vote and not necessarily on Cultural or National Secuirty issues.

To emphasize this point - Star TV (who later became NDTV) during Kargil war 1999 used to mock the Government by interviewing a Rural Lady in UP- Malum hai ladai Chal raha hai- kahan chal raha hai- to which the lady replies -Lucknow, then the reporter mocks the Central Government is wasting 1000USD per Bofors shell at kargil rather solving poverty.

Although the farm laws are good- I guess the propoganda it has must have hurtful, it has also exposed the protesters as they are really about UP and Punjab elections and not farm laws.

The daily protests have a toll, and unless you one remove the money power Judical power of BIF overnight- its near impossible to stop it. We have to bide our time. its a long drawn out war- yes sometimes retreat is required- you are free to judge it as cowardice and give everything to BIF on a platter.

Like it or not BIF have captured way too many State Governments.
chetak
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

Aditya_V wrote:When you have an AK 47 in hand and other person has a knife, every one will be confrontational. But if multiple enemies with multiple strategies, you dont not do a suicidal charge and throw it all away.

I was very disappointed in May 2004, then I realised many people (not all there are gems of persons) in Slums vote based on cash for vote and not necessarily on Cultural or National Secuirty issues.

To emphasize this point - Star TV (who later became NDTV) during Kargil war 1999 used to mock the Government by interviewing a Rural Lady in UP- Malum hai ladai Chal raha hai- kahan chal raha hai- to which the lady replies -Lucknow, then the reporter mocks the Central Government is wasting 1000USD per Bofors shell at kargil rather solving poverty.

Although the farm laws are good- I guess the propoganda it has must have hurtful, it has also exposed the protesters as they are really about UP and Punjab elections and not farm laws.

The daily protests have a toll, and unless you one remove the money power Judical power of BIF overnight- its near impossible to stop it. We have to bide our time. its a long drawn out war- yes sometimes retreat is required- you are free to judge it as cowardice and give everything to BIF on a platter.

Like it or not BIF have captured way too many State Governments.
because we let them

and, no one pushed back
Aditya_V
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Aditya_V »

In case you have noticed most BIF people have tonnes of wealth and they can laze around but Others need to work and earn a living.

So who didn't push back BJP or voters, truth is both why, like it or not we have to worked hard where as BIF being leeches have feed themselves on the blood of this nation and don't need to work, they were happy in the lockdown. I think BJP has judged correctly that it is not yet time for a showdown

Easy to ask others to do sacrifices which we are not willing to do. Country is coming out of lockdown people have taken debts to get through, this is not the time for a show down. BIF prospers via riots, they have happily been polarizing people and blaming BJP.

Anyway people are free to join BIF and dump on BJP, let BJP deceide what is best. I personally would prefer avoiding a showdown and somehow secure UP first.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Cyrano »

The best commentary on this farm laws faceplant, and seriously funny !
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by krithivas »

It is not clear why PM Modi made this decision to scrap the Farm laws. The protests were dying down and the urban class (new power center) are mostly pro-market-economics and anti-subsidies. My only request is to not taunt/jeer nor justify/cheer this climb-down.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Cyrano »

Those who fear public reaction have no place in politics!
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by vimal »

After "why Katappa killed Bahubali?" we now have "Why govt killed the farm bill?"
We will know soon or might be never, time will tell. Even opposition does not know why, the issue was itself on a downswing for months.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by AshishA »

Cyrano wrote:Those who fear public reaction have no place in politics!
Yet PM Modi continues to be the most successful politician in the last 3 decades. So I highly doubt he doesn't have a place in 'politics'
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by williams »

krithivas wrote:It is not clear why PM Modi made this decision to scrap the Farm laws. The protests were dying down and the urban class (new power center) are mostly pro-market-economics and anti-subsidies. My only request is to not taunt/jeer nor justify/cheer this climb-down.
It is very simple. Not a single Modi voter will change their mind after this decision. Many will crib about it but no one will vote for somebody else. Now, look at the opposition. They don't have any talking points. Sure they will celebrate for a few days and then what? So that is the political calculation.

Now coming back to the real issues at hand. None of the non-BJP states are going to cooperate with the center. It is political suicide for them to bring in real agricultural reform. In the meantime, BJP states can implement whatever reform is needed within the state laws.

In all this, we should understand. Our judicial system is a mess. There is too much activism and too much overreach. The so-called civil society NGOs are front for the commie criminals. This combined with Media elements is a strong political tool today. If something cannot reach real people quickly, it is really a waste of time to expend political capital.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KLNMurthy »

Cyrano wrote:The best commentary on this farm laws faceplant, and seriously funny !

Brilliant.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by greatde »

Surely, the real losers are entrepreneurs and businessman, with scraping of Farm Laws? With an increasing welfare state in demand, the educated or taxpayers can have more burden, and exodus . We always keep losing or export our best talents overseas.

A large majority believes in freebies, welfare. That is understandable for a poor country like ourselves, but it just keeps increasing. The farmers want more money, more guarantees. A key reason for our lack of working culture society and huge inefficiencies. And now, BJP could easily do such demands and earn their goodwill . BJP could focus short term vision just to win next elections, instead of long term vision, infrastructure projects or resolving decades old issues.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by krithivas »

The Hindu proclaims farm law rollback has galvanized anti-CAA mob in Assam. They did so with a twist that Assamese are protesting Hindus refugees from Bangladesh being resettled in Assam. Regardless of the twist, Naxals have moved on from UP to Assam as the new protest head quarters.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by greatde »

williams wrote: It is very simple. Not a single Modi voter will change their mind after this decision. Many will crib about it but no one will vote for somebody else. Now, look at the opposition. They don't have any talking points. Sure they will celebrate for a few days and then what? So that is the political calculation.
Modi or BJP voters are basically the positive voters. The vote is for him, for the work. In such dynamic, if there aren't any positives news, they go into sulking mode. And this period is no different, a lot of sulking, self-doubts is creeping. Such sulking voters will not bother to vote on election day.

BJP has a lot of sulking voters. Without a high turnout, BJP will always struggle.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Ambar »

krithivas wrote:The Hindu proclaims farm law rollback has galvanized anti-CAA mob in Assam. They did so with a twist that Assamese are protesting Hindus refugees from Bangladesh being resettled in Assam. Regardless of the twist, Naxals have moved on from UP to Assam as the new protest head quarters.
What are they protesting against when CAA isn't even a rule yet years after the act passing the parliament ? The next leg of the agroterror-commie-international leftists BIF network led agitations will be against corporates in India, they tried it during CAA and they tried it again during the early days of agro-terrorists protests against the farm bills and they'll try once again using small traders, small independent retailers and commie trade unions. Everyday brings more news of jio vehicles being attacked or blocked, they'll just crank up the "ambani adani and modi ruining the poor farmers and small traders" rhetoric and attack big corporations or more specifically corporations that are perceived to be close to the current government.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Cyrano »

This article appeared nearly a year ago.
https://indianexpress.com/article/citie ... y-7125807/

I'm quickly losing sympathy for Punjab, the only reason they seem to get away with all this is the no longer concealed threat of separatist terrorism by colluding with Pakis and blackmailing India that if you lose Punjab, you'll lose J&K, Ladhak as well, and Delhi will be extremely vulnerable. Before you call me out as being divisive etc please point me to civilian voices who actively call out and denounce the evils that Punjab society has embraced so that my default faith in them isn't shaken too much.

If NaMo has given in to these unworthy turd opposers, a pattern begins to emerge. A few months ago chai biskoot in Delhi with Gupkar gang of anti-nationals, then WB election violence debacle, now these scammer-farmers. BIFs in other states will will take cue and start acting boldly to get what they want.
Hey Ram!
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by uddu »

The defensive mindset need to change. Why are we always thinking of losing land. Ain't those days over? What about gaining some every now and then for a change?
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Tanaji »

The BJP has consistently been clueless in the face of this farmer broker agitation with no strategy visible as to how to deal with it. It is not as if they did not have an idea of the tactics: that was clearly displayed with the CAA agitation. Yet, the BJP kept treating everyone with kid gloves. Modi and BJP do not have the stomach for a bare knuckles fight, which is what is required. The pattern is clear for anyone who bothers to look: CAA, West Bengal murders of its workers, murders of RSS workers in Kerala, Maharashtra debacle… the list goes on. Yet, the faithful keep attributing chanakyan logic as if it was some great strategy on part of BJP to withdraw the farm laws in face of theorised military mutiny and riots. No proof of mutiny theory is offered and the same folks will also swear blind that IA is a highly disciplined and professional force…

Occams razor would imply that the laws were repealed for the sake of real or imagined short term political gains in UP. If one looks at patterns, one will realise that on such type of issues, BJP has been consistent: a lot of show boating and marketing but very little substance. Be it CAA, be it farm laws or be it the various cases filed against corrupt opposition politicians. Nothing substantial has come from it. So what is the basis for saying this is all part of a plan?

Truthfully, the problem is not with BJP but with the faithful. We believers have a habit of projecting our own wishes on Modiji and when it doesn’t happen the ultra faithful compensate by spinning theories that it is a grand plan. The other related aspect is we Indians tend to look at a successful or moderately competent and honest leader as a demi God due to the bar being so low. So we tend to regard that person as an infallible modern day Krishna/Bhim/Arjun rolled into one which sets up our disappointment. Once we realise that he is just a very competent leader with the same political compulsions, the disappointment will stop.

Still one thing is true, there’s no other option so support BJP only…
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Cyrano »

India needs a new ultra nationalist dharmic political party. We've been fed for too long that RSS & BJP are it. They clearly are not. There is definitely space to the right of these 'right wing' parties in our political spectrum and will counter balance far left and play an important role. BJP can keep bumbling and muddling somewhere in the center.

If AAP can come up to what it is in a decade, surely a Bharat Rakshak party can do far better ;)
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KLNMurthy »

Cyrano wrote:This article appeared nearly a year ago.
https://indianexpress.com/article/citie ... y-7125807/

I'm quickly losing sympathy for Punjab, the only reason they seem to get away with all this is the no longer concealed threat of separatist terrorism by colluding with Pakis and blackmailing India that if you lose Punjab, you'll lose J&K, Ladhak as well, and Delhi will be extremely vulnerable. Before you call me out as being divisive etc please point me to civilian voices who actively call out and denounce the evils that Punjab society has embraced so that my default faith in them isn't shaken too much.

If NaMo has given in to these unworthy turd opposers, a pattern begins to emerge. A few months ago chai biskoot in Delhi with Gupkar gang of anti-nationals, then WB election violence debacle, now these scammer-farmers. BIFs in other states will will take cue and start acting boldly to get what they want.
Hey Ram!
It’s a delicate balancing game for the government and I sympathize. But sympathy doesn’t change the laws of nature.

The issues are structural as they say.

Any ambitious power-hungry BIF (not just Punjab or Muslim or naxals—not generalizing there at all, just referring to main players in recent BIF battles) can start a war and hold the GOI hostage.

The iron fist tactics of previous era are off the table. People appreciate stability and prosperity but won’t fight for those things, so no counter-agitation by farmers from non-Punjab states (as was pointed out, they have less resources—surplus in Marxist jargon—to launch a grassroots pro-reform fight, plus there are the facts that we don’t want a street-level civil war (like in Venezuela) and that generally speaking, defensive warfare is harder to motivate at grassroots level than offensive ones).

Only tools available to GOI are tightening the laws, streamlining the administrative state, clamp down on BIF financing, manage political communications etc., all boring things that don’t get people fired up.

Modi government has got a start on some of these things, and I understand things are not going to get done overnight. But the enemy is not going to wait for us to get ready, he is striking even now as we can see. And each hit we take leaves us with that much less wherewithal to consolidate our defenses.

The farm laws fiasco tells me that:

- the nationalist cultural ecosystem is deficient in a lot of key skills in conceiving and mounting an effective defense. Communication is an obvious area of concern here.

- more worryingly, I now see that there is no overarching strategic vision let alone a blueprint for national defense. Moves and actions show an ad hoc quality—I am no longer buying the n-dimensional chankian chess explanation. I don’t expect every single contingency to be anticipated and plans spelled out for it, but we (here) can discern the difference between having a broad plan & strategy that is augmented by improvisation and having only rhetoric + improvisation.

(I am specifically talking here about national defense only; not development in which I think we are doing better, though ultimately the two can’t be separated.)
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KLNMurthy »

Cyrano wrote:Those who fear public reaction have no place in politics!
Maybe you’ll elaborate on what you mean here?

Politics is all about public action and reaction, and a professional in that field ought to know what aspects of those things are dangerous and therefore ought to be feared.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Supratik »

Sicanta wrote:
Supratik wrote:Very good decision.
Why sirji?
Primarily 5 reasons.

1) The Sangh has a very positive view of Sikhs for the umpteen sacrifices they have made for the civilization. So they don't want to push it too far.
This agitation is primarily led by a sections of Sikhs and Jats of HY and west UP.

2) National security. The vultures are descending on the agitation to see if they can create something. The former CM of PJ has his ears to the ground.

3) You can do the reform by other means e.g. by state legislation.

4) Something is going to happen up north and you want your military cohesion to be not disturbed.

6) Political opportunity to go after the root of the problem.

PS: As an oldtimer I miss the quality of posts of the older generation many of whom are no longer active e.g some posters here live in la la land. That video by whats his name Ajeet Bharti is low level trash. I don't think he has the intelligence to analyze why those laws were withdrawn. Some posters here are also at that level. A good leader should know which battle he should fight and which he should walk away from for the larger interest of his people.
Some are also suggesting indirectly that protestors should have been violently removed. That would straight away play into the hands of the those that want to create trouble. Most of these protests are not spontaneous but engineered to create regime change.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Tanaji »

^^^ How is keeping a mob of violent, murdering thugs hell bent on hosting a flag of a banned terrorist organisation on the symbolic seat of power of the nation for over a year a grand strategy? That too, a mob that is funded by a banned terrorist organisation, openly displays its hatred for a particular religion and desires its women, whose leaders refuse to acknowledge rapists and lynch people for perceived slights to their holy book…

It would have been a strategy had they followed Narasimha Rao principles of masterful inaction, but that’s not what is happening here.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KLNMurthy »

Supratik wrote:
Sicanta wrote:
Why sirji?
Primarily 5 reasons.

1) The Sangh has a very positive view of Sikhs for the umpteen sacrifices they have made for the civilization. So they don't want to push it too far.
This agitation is primarily led by a sections of Sikhs and Jats of HY and west UP.

2) National security. The vultures are descending on the agitation to see if they can create something. The former CM of PJ has his ears to the ground.

3) You can do the reform by other means e.g. by state legislation.

4) Something is going to happen up north and you want your military cohesion to be not disturbed.

6) Political opportunity to go after the root of the problem.

PS: As an oldtimer I miss the quality of posts of the older generation many of whom are no longer active e.g some posters here live in la la land. That video by whats his name Ajeet Bharti is low level trash. I don't think he has the intelligence to analyze why those laws were withdrawn. Some posters here are also at that level. A good leader should know which battle he should fight and which he should walk away from for the larger interest of his people.
Some are also suggesting indirectly that protestors should have been violently removed. That would straight away play into the hands of the those that want to create trouble. Most of these protests are not spontaneous but engineered to create regime change.
I don’t disagree with your points about the rationale for backing off from the farm laws, in the interests of avoiding sikh alienation and maintaining army coherence.

My problem is that the withdrawal may only postpone a proper reckoning of key questions like Sikhs’ relationship to mother India. The special place occupied by Sikhs is from a previous political era that was much more feudal and much less pan-Indian. The Khalistan movement should tell us that the special role of Sikhs, which was a positive thing, can be turned into a toxic thing, and put an end to India.

I appreciate that these are extremely delicate issues and can’t be handled by getting into the face of Sikhs and shouting, “you are not special any more, just get over it and get used to it!”

At the same time, there is a built-in expiry date on how long we can drag things on by keeping the issues hush-hush, and avoiding facing potentially divisive and dangerous issues. This has been much more obvious with the Muslims.

I am not suggesting that Muslims == Sikhs, not at all. But these experiences should teach us that we need to solve the identity politics issues all around.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Cyrano »

Supratik ji,
A good leader should know which battle he should fight and which he should walk away from for the larger interest of his people.
Care to elaborate how this applies in the current context, in the tradition of erstwhile posters and educate us? May be we are entertained by cheap humour since our great leader doesn't explain his actions in an intelligible way, nor can anyone else.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by dsreedhar »

Primus wrote: Pro-Dharma People and Institutions
71. Manushi India - By Madhu Kishwar
72. Citti Media
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by disha »

sudarshan wrote:
...But there was nothing. Every week or so, there is a new issue which will cost the BJP in 2024. When the issue dies down, or is resolved, another comes up, and the old issue is dropped, but the R&D lingers on in the subconscious, and supporter morale has been sapped that little bit. It will have cumulative effects. BJP facing costs in 2024 will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The other side, OTOH, stays with their own no matter what.

Maybe Modi knows the level of trust that the common guy on the street has, and he isn't bothered about the R&D on SM. Maybe that common "uneducated" guy, when he hears Modi say "I took the decision in the best interests of the nation" will say "OK, I trust Modi" and not sit and do a comprehensive 180 degree analysis.
I have a theory. This is based loosely on the R&D that sometimes happens in all of the forum threads and particularly what is going outside.

Several vested interests are getting hurt. Across the board. The vested interests can be in various areas, for example vasooli on real estate has gone down because the cash can be tracked. The vasooli rajas of the sales tax department are suddenly "jobless". Look at the record breaking collections and the record breaking digital transactions. Now even the local sabjiwalah gets the cash directly into account and transfers some money back to his village. All digital. What happens to the bank manager who earlier can throw his weight around?

For example in the Kashi Vishwanath Corridor, fake photos of how Modi is destroying temples is circulated. Once that is pointed out, there is now rona-dhona on how Kyoto has old temples which are not destroyed for modernity and how Kashi Vishwanath is being destroyed.

Stinky dirty unhygienic lanes are okay. Shoddy brick buildings taking over temples, using them as construction props, flushing toilet over their shikaras is perfectly fine. Devotees queuing up in rain and heat in a single file spilling over onto roads and bylanes and having an entry only one at a time is spectacular.

However any change in facilities, like accomodating at least 50 thousand devotees on special occasions safely is considered a big no! Such naysayers to me are not humans. They are pisachas. Enjoying human suffering and suffering of the devotees of Mahadeva and are trying to pollute the yagna of the "rishis" who are trying to address the issues of the shraddhalus.

How can they be indic? How can they be considered anything Bharatiyas? They are Indians in name only and nationalistic because they love the idea and makes them feel better. Otherwise it is all about my gain and your loss. Whether it is banking or toilets in schools or sending soldiers into harm way without much thought on downstream implications.

They will come out against this government and spread falsehoods so that they can see the real nationalist government fail. And there are enough brahmins like the learned, intelligent but naive brahmin in the Panchatantra story who will throw away the cow to slaughter since some vested interests convinced the naive brahmin that the cow is not nationalistic and indic enough.

Paisachas are doing their duty as ordained. However isn't the duty of brahmins (as I the posters are in this forum) to be wise and see that they do not throw the cow to slaughter just because the cow is not indic or nationalistic enough?
venkat_kv wrote:
This tells you where the memes are originating or supported from. It also raises the question if the BJP's internet presence is a tad overstated. looks like the opposition seems to focus on creating these memes and some of the sanatani leaning members also forward and question without thinking where all the money is spent.
I know I am responding to your query to Sudarshan'ji. Apoligies.

The "sanatani" leaning members are unwise. If even after 7.5 years they are not able to put two events together in a context. See my post above, the paisachas will do their duty as ordained by Mahadev. Or the supreme consciousness. Some of the paisachas do not even know that they are paisachas. But then they do their karma.

However the people who call themselves nationalistic, indics, sanatanis, patriotics etc need to put things in context and come back and realize that some battles are lost, eventually the war needs to be won and whose side they will be and after picking a side why they have to run around still searching for a side?

Some of the sanatanis are now talking about Kejru and joining aaptards. I think they need to go back to Delhi and locked up in their homes which are mini-gas chambers. The last part was ordered by the SC Judges.
disha
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by disha »

The cynic will say that Modi government cut taxes on petrol/diesel because of elections. Some may even tie it to upcoming state elections. I think that is a lazy thought (my actual word for that thought will be too radical).

https://swarajyamag.com/news-brief/gove ... arun-bajaj

I see it more like a "reward due to an objective met and a job well done" pattern. The tax collection target is met and most likely will be breached. Given that, it makes sense to reduce taxes (excise duties) somewhere else. Best outcome was to reduce excise duty on items of input costs. For example petrol/diesel.

I do wish that Indian government hikes duty by 10% on all imported finished electronic items like phones, laptops, etc. This 10% additional duty would be to cover for environment cost and recycling. And an additional 5% duty on the above to help setup electronic recycling centers. That is 15% overall. Also accessories like chargers, headphones (finished) and even cases should have similar rise in excise duty.
Cyrano
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Cyrano »

I think this disorientation of the present Govt in exercising it's authority comes from an incomplete/incorrect understanding of Raja Dharma, compounded by the fact that Raja and Rajguru are rolled into one personality, rajasic and tamasic tendencies (which have their own place and importance) conflicting with the sattvik.

Of what use is development along a mostly western model when it has to be achieved at the cost of not being able to focus adequately on reclaiming our Dharmic Civilisational identity is a question that merits to be asked. I'm not saying one can only be achieved at the expense of the other, nor that they are incompatible. But where does one draw the line? Based on which principles? How to set priorities? 12 lane highways or Asiatic lions and bustards? Which are real trade-offs and which are false?

Outward dharmic manifestations are easy, exercising Dharma especially Raja Dharma in a diverse federated nation like Bharat is not easy by any stretch of imagination. NaMo has ventured into some uncharted territories, he is plodding alone, with himself for counsel with no Dharmic ideological support from the Sangh Parivar or anyone else. He can't go incognito around the country like Rajas of yore, he has to have a set of advisors who make up his eyes and ears to a good extent. Mistakes are bound to happen.

Less errors on the foreign policy side because your enemies have to attack you from the front, more errors on the domestic side because enemies come at you from all sides, at once. It's not isolated errors that worry me, it's the pattern that's starting to emerge. All leaders want success and tend to do things they feel comfortable doing. I see NaMo a lot more sure footed (though not perfect) dealing with external threats than internal threats. Because internal threats test much more severely your Raja Dharma, pit sattvik against rajasic and tamasic, you against your own people. What NaMo needs is a guru who can advise him, show the dharmic path. Every Arjuna needs his Krishna.
Cyrano
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Cyrano »

May I add that our external enemies seem to have figured this out, that's why they are increasingly resorting to covert, subversive methods to harm Bharat, turning it's own diversity and plurality against itself.

And that's precisely why this pattern of dubious inclusivity for the benefits of development but special treatment exclusivity for sharing the effort and burden of development is backfiring. Because to really create sab ka saath, sab ka vishwas, you need to start by applying sab Barabar. Established bastions and holy books and holy ghosts need to be brought down. And each has to find its place under the umbrella of Dharma, and accept to coexist with the benevolence of the Dharmic civilization. Unless this foundational work is done, you may get some development but you will not get stability and order. 2 values another ancient asian country values but goes about getting them in the most adharmic, inhuman way possible.

So, in my view it all ties back to clarity that comes from knowing one's Dharma and pursuing our long overdue Dharmic Civilisational Agenda. Development will happen as a natural consequence, as it happened before, for millennias.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by S_Madhukar »

It seems like with Krishna , Narad and Sanjaya are also needed in this era of fake news. I wonder how well the govt is using DD, RSTV etc. they are there to explain policies simply to all people…treating citizens like adults and providing facts and stories is a start
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Ambar »

S_Madhukar wrote:It seems like with Krishna , Narad and Sanjaya are also needed in this era of fake news. I wonder how well the govt is using DD, RSTV etc. they are there to explain policies simply to all people
Who watches DD/RSTV ? I made a post few pages back that one of BJP's biggest failures going back to Advani times is its failure to develop its own ecosystem of local media in every state. Today at the national level you have Republic, Zee and on a good day TimesNow who do some work of countering the oppositions lies, but at the regional and local level the channels and newspapers are all pro-Congress, pro-NCP, pro-JDS etc. Majority of the news consumers rely on local papers and local news channels for information and BJP plays no part in them.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Ambar »

disha wrote:The cynic will say that Modi government cut taxes on petrol/diesel because of elections. Some may even tie it to upcoming state elections. I think that is a lazy thought (my actual word for that thought will be too radical).

https://swarajyamag.com/news-brief/gove ... arun-bajaj

I see it more like a "reward due to an objective met and a job well done" pattern. The tax collection target is met and most likely will be breached. Given that, it makes sense to reduce taxes (excise duties) somewhere else. Best outcome was to reduce excise duty on items of input costs. For example petrol/diesel.

I do wish that Indian government hikes duty by 10% on all imported finished electronic items like phones, laptops, etc. This 10% additional duty would be to cover for environment cost and recycling. And an additional 5% duty on the above to help setup electronic recycling centers. That is 15% overall. Also accessories like chargers, headphones (finished) and even cases should have similar rise in excise duty.
Nothing cynical. The previous cuts came in 2017 just before the UP assembly elections and in 2018 before 9 states went into elections. The excise duty on fuel has gone up 220% since 2014, the excise collection is up 340% in the same period. The fuel prices have been revised upwards over 70 times in the current calendar year, so after a ~Rs 40 per litre increase in fuel prices over the last 12 months if the govt cuts the price by Rs 5 it is not exactly a reason to celebrate. By the way just before the petrol and diesel prices were reduced by Rs 5 and Rs 10 respectively, the government increased the price for nonsubsidized LPG cylinder by another Rs 226. As for electronics the GST is 18% and customs is another 15%, increasing duties is counterproductive unless we have domestic industries to protect from cheap goods.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Aditya_V »

Ambar a few corrections, UPA cut excise duty on Petrol just before elections, so that anomaly cannot be the case, during UPA era there was no gas available, I had to buy Supergas at 1500 Rs , without today's inflation equal to about Rs2k for 12kg. Now a lot more people use Gas.

Inflation, power availability were all terrible during UPA era.
Ambar
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Ambar »

Excise duty on fuel in 2009-10 - 10.2 %
2010-11 - 9.7 %
2011-12 - 8.4 %
2012-13 - 8.1 %
2013-14 - 7.7 %
2014-15 - 8.6 %
2020-21 - 32.9 %

UPA did exactly the opposite of NDA when it comes to fuel prices. As inflation in India soared beginning 2008-09, UPA cut the excise to give some relief at the pump. They also started issuing the oil bonds which led to the under recoveries at OMCs. NDA on the other hand after deregulating diesel went on revising the excise each time the international crude prices dropped and there by ensured that the aam junta never benefited a rupee from the low crude prices between 2014 to 2020. The highest excise tax collection on petroleum products during UPA-2 was in 2013-14 at Rs 53000 crores, in 2020-21 the excise collection on fuel is Rs 295,400 crores.

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Yes, when it comes to LPG, UPA-2 tried to regulate the number of subsidized cylinders to 9 per year (it is currently 12 per year) resulting in some households having to purchase commercial cylinders at a premium. It is also true that UPA-2 was running OMCs into the ground through under recoveries. But it is just as true that our energy policy has been nonsensical under the current administration as well. You cannot claim to stimulate the domestic demand and then take the exact opposite steps that rises inflation on everything and there by killing the demand.

Bottomline, people are breathing a temporary sigh of relief from daily shock at the pump. Given the past precedence it will likely remain this way until the elections and then resume its journey.
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