2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

siddhu · Post by **siddhu** » 30 Jun 2022 14:29

Just a noob question ?
Is it necessary for all MLAs of part to ratify party merger?
For instance if UT merges SS with INC,can they disqualify rebels on technicality ?

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 30 Jun 2022 14:39

Geert Wilders@geertwilderspvv · 28 Jun

Please India as a friend I tell you: stop being tolerant to the intolerant. Defend Hinduism against the extremists, terrorists and jihadists. Don’t appease Islam, for it will cost you dearly. Hindus deserve leaders that protect them for the full 100%!

#HinduLivesMatters #India

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 30 Jun 2022 14:51

How Maharashtra Drama Unfolded To Make Devendra Fadnavis CM Again
https://swarajyamag.com/context/how-mah ... s-cm-again

Fadnavis's long game: Fadnavis and Shinde are known to have a years-long friendship cutting across party lines. Shinde was on the BJP radar before the 2019 Assembly elections.

Fadnavis has come out on top numerous times in the past too in contests of realpolitik. He has been active as a leader of the opposition.

He has been seen to be vocal and straightforward in communication on Hindutva issues, unlike the Shiv Sena, which continues to lose steam on that front.

Fadnavis has also been steadfast in taking the governance issues, and allegations of corruption among the top leaders of the MVA government, including Anil Deshmukh and Nawab Malik, closer to their logical conclusions.

In Goa elections held in 2022, Fadnavis, who was BJP’s Goa election in-charge, led the talks for forging an alliance between the BJP and Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP), TMC’s pre-poll alliance partner, to form the government in the state.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 30 Jun 2022 15:17

Mohammed Zubair: Indian police arrest journalist over tweets https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-61956108

this is how kamines of BBC are covering md zubair. no mention of deleting FB account, tweets, financial irregularities.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 30 Jun 2022 15:18

zubair flown to Blore , DP trying to recover his laptop which he is avoiding. WHile in custody with no device every day 100s of his tweets are getting deleted!
TFI article suggests he is Islamic front for same people who are after Modi since 2002. Mukul Sinha, Ayubs, Teesta etc https://tfipost.com/2022/06/the-story-o ... u-about-2/

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 30 Jun 2022 15:30

why is Md Zubair hiding face/identity all the time!

Shaktimaan · Post by **Shaktimaan** » 30 Jun 2022 16:58

In a surprise move, Shri Eknath Shinde will be sworn in as the new Chief Minister of Maharashtra.

This is a master stroke to get the Shiv Sena man on the street on board with the new Shiv Sena dispensation led by Eknath Shinde. Where does this leave former CM Shri Uddhav ji?

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 30 Jun 2022 17:01

Eknath Shinde to be new Maharashtra Chief Minister.
Another surprize move from Fadnavis & BJP. And Fadnavis is NOT even going to be a Deputy CM. Don't know what are the plans for the BJP to have leverage on the MH government. Any ways this move as got the secular camp and their pidis - the main stream media once again by surprize

.

IndraD wrote:zubair flown to Blore , DP trying to recover his laptop which he is avoiding. WHile in custody with no device every day 100s of his tweets are getting deleted!

It is obvious that his login credentials are shared with many others who got on their job as soon as Zubair was arrested. Hope D.P have enough cyber security skills to identify from where new logins have happened, and also to retrieve the deleted data (from the devices or by getting it from the service providers). The main stream media is downplaying/not reporting the '100s of tweets getting deleted' part. So that they can later spin their own 'no evidence against innocent zubair' theories.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 30 Jun 2022 17:04

Sachin wrote:Eknath Shinde to be new Maharashtra Chief Minister.
Another surprize move from Fadnavis & BJP. And Fadnavis is NOT even going to be a Deputy CM. Don't know what are the plans for the BJP to have leverage of the MH government. Any ways this move as got the secular camp and their pidis - the main stream media once again by surprize .

both the penguins and the onions are now squarely in the cross hairs of a guy who has been wilfully wronged by both of them.

Lets wait and see where the crucial ministries and port folios land

Obviously, the crucial ministries may not remain with the same party and the chances of the CM pulling down his own coalition govt, especially when he has long expressed the desire to become the CM.

where will the SS party symbol go and where will the SS name go....

will the new CM boot the penguins out of the SS and where will aunty priyanka chuturvedi go next

and finally

Larry Walker · Post by **Larry Walker** » 30 Jun 2022 17:11

What a masterstroke - entire Marathi maanoos vote is now secure and will not split to NCP. UT will now be consigned to dustbin of history. Maybe later SS(ES) and MNS may merge.
I think next step will be the BMC SS organization will align with BJP and we will have BMC reins going in BJP's hand - BJP is looking forward for this for quite sometime now.
But it may also be that BJP is giving UT a route back into NDA - UT can declare that all is forgiven now that a ShivSainik is CM and he is back in the NDA fold ??
This is again a 4D multiverse chess being played by Motabhai.

asbchakri · Post by **asbchakri** » 30 Jun 2022 17:25

So how will this pave in the next election, who will get CM post, will Shinde be the CM for only 2.5 years? What is the game plan for the long term.

Shaktimaan · Post by **Shaktimaan** » 30 Jun 2022 17:28

Sounds like a 7.5 year deal, 2.5 for Shri Eknath until the end of this Assembly in 2024 and 5 years for Shri Devendra from 2024...and in 2029 Shri Devendra will be the PM face of BJP (I can dream...)

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 30 Jun 2022 17:28

via @souravshakti

via @SikkaYatharth

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 30 Jun 2022 17:44

Larry Walker wrote:What a masterstroke - entire Marathi maanoos vote is now secure and will not split to NCP. UT will now be consigned to dustbin of history. Maybe later SS(ES) and MNS may merge.
I think next step will be the BMC SS organization will align with BJP and we will have BMC reins going in BJP's hand - BJP is looking forward for this for quite sometime now.
But it may also be that BJP is giving UT a route back into NDA - UT can declare that all is forgiven now that a ShivSainik is CM and he is back in the NDA fold ??
This is again a 4D multiverse chess being played by Motabhai.

UT is bhika hua scum. I saw his interview clips on NDTV. He hitched his wagon to ITalian mafia.

Meenakhshi Lekhi's husband is crapping all over BJP on NDTV. We have idiots in our midst. Saw the same crap from Nirmala Seetaraman's husband a while ago. I think successful wives makes these low lifes crap in their pants

S_Madhukar · Post by **S_Madhukar** » 30 Jun 2022 17:55

I for one and most people hopefully will not want UT back. It will be a cruel joke to Mumbai if this scum comes back.The only 1 decision he could have taken was on the Aarey metro shed and speeding the metro infrastructure. Instead he sided with the NGOs and slowed down the metro . Sambhajinagar etc is BS my foot if you can’t do for your city and doing such grandstanding at state level.

asbchakri · Post by **asbchakri** » 30 Jun 2022 18:16

Looks like only Devendra Fadnavis is not in the govt. there will be BJP ministers in Shinde's govt, or am I mistaken.

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 30 Jun 2022 18:27

Larry Walker wrote:...
UT can declare that all is forgiven now that a ShivSainik is CM and he is back in the NDA fold ??
...

Unlikely. He has lost the aura part which is necessary to hold together a cult based party.

Every shiv Sainik has now realized that not just the CM but the leader of the SS itself can now be decided and appointed by some one other than UT.

vmalik · Post by **vmalik** » 30 Jun 2022 18:27

Maybe Fadnavis will take over Shah's role in BJP and Shah can finally start working as a Home Minister. Nadda always appeared as a placeholder anyways.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 30 Jun 2022 18:28

Larry Walker wrote:What a masterstroke - entire Marathi maanoos vote is now secure and will not split to NCP. UT will now be consigned to dustbin of history. Maybe later SS(ES) and MNS may merge.
I think next step will be the BMC SS organization will align with BJP and we will have BMC reins going in BJP's hand - BJP is looking forward for this for quite sometime now.
But it may also be that BJP is giving UT a route back into NDA - UT can declare that all is forgiven now that a ShivSainik is CM and he is back in the NDA fold ??
...

A master-e-stroke indeed. Doubt Penguin or baby penguin have any life in future, just a bunch of liability, poisonous snakes who needed to be finished for good. In fact, I would go even a step further and say that BJP separating from its long time partner SS 2.5 years ago was very much designed with the intend to finish them off, but some may find it a stretch, which is fine. Cash cow BMC, Maha for GE2024 are done deal. Well oiled election machinery run by by moto bhai.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 30 Jun 2022 18:33

Shaktimaan wrote:Sounds like a 7.5 year deal, 2.5 for Shri Eknath until the end of this Assembly in 2024 and 5 years for Shri Devendra from 2024...and in 2029 Shri Devendra will be the PM face of BJP (I can dream...)

Everyone aspires to be the CM. Eknath Shinde is now the CM and also the defacto leader of SS, i am not sure what guarantees BJP has sought from him that there won't be a repeat of 2019 when the state goes to polls in 2 yrs. Whatever it is karma finally caught up with the father-son thackeray duo for all their sins. The first order of the day should be to lock up that motormouth Raut and throw the keys away.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 30 Jun 2022 18:36

chanakyaa wrote:
Larry Walker wrote:What a masterstroke - entire Marathi maanoos vote is now secure and will not split to NCP. UT will now be consigned to dustbin of history. Maybe later SS(ES) and MNS may merge.
I think next step will be the BMC SS organization will align with BJP and we will have BMC reins going in BJP's hand - BJP is looking forward for this for quite sometime now.
But it may also be that BJP is giving UT a route back into NDA - UT can declare that all is forgiven now that a ShivSainik is CM and he is back in the NDA fold ??
...
A master-e-stroke indeed. Doubt Penguin or baby penguin have any life in future, just a bunch of liability, poisonous snakes who needed to be finished for good. In fact, I would go even a step further and say that BJP separating from its long time partner SS 2.5 years ago was very much designed with the intend to finish them off, but some may find it a stretch, which is fine. Cash cow BMC, Maha for GE2024 are done deal. Well oiled election machinery run by by moto bhai.

100% ... No need to bring these 2 sold out idiots. The venom they spewed since 2014 was enormous. It is to the credit of Modi/Shah to keep their cool. Finally crooks went to India/Savarkar/Bal Thackrey hating gangs aligned with BIF

asbchakri · Post by **asbchakri** » 30 Jun 2022 18:41

Just in Nadda saying Fadnavis to be Deputy CM.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 30 Jun 2022 18:53

News Arena @NewsArenaIndia

Narottam Mishra : Within 40 days of arresting people for chanting Hanuman Chalisa Uddhav Thackeray lost his 40 MLAs.

Omar Abdullah @OmarAbdullah
#EknathShinde as CM is very bad news for #UddhavThackarey and his branch of the Shiv Sena. Uddhav was probably counting on a BJP CM giving, him a political weapon to target Shinde with. This makes the job of rebuilding their Shiv Sena much more difficult for Thackerays.

a_bharat · Post by **a_bharat** » 30 Jun 2022 19:01

I don't like these masterstrokes. Against common sense. Fadnavis not being the CM is bad. Being a deputy CM is worse.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 30 Jun 2022 19:04

This has prevented SS becoming a dynasty party like Congress and might have even saved it from going extinct. Anyway whatever UT and gang was doing went against the core values of SS and a split was inevitable. The chankianness really lies in the timing and method of engineering the split.

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 30 Jun 2022 19:18

Probably there are wheels within wheels here!!
There is the July 11th SC date as well.
My view:
Dynasty
Election of Speaker
Legislative Assembly Party leader
Party Whip
Vote of Confidence of the new Govt.
Election Symbol(as to who is the real SHiva Sena)
BMC elections and the symbol confusion
Onion Merchants 'D' Gang kulasa
As the saying goes in Hindi : AS and Devendra both Lambe dowd ke Ghode!!

Larry Walker · Post by **Larry Walker** » 30 Jun 2022 19:21

SS going kaput without merging with MNS would have made NCP stronger as Marathi Manoos would have gone towards NCP.
RT is probably an untrusted entity else merging SS Shinde group with MNS would have been an easy option.
Right now - priority is to get into government minus UT and at the same time keeping Marathi Maanus away from NCP.

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 30 Jun 2022 19:26

Ambar wrote:
... Eknath Shinde is now the CM and also the defacto leader of SS, i am not sure what guarantees BJP has sought from him that there won't be a repeat of 2019 when the state goes to polls in 2 yrs. ..

+1

I wouldn't put it past the wily old fox SP to have tactily engineered this, knowing that the SS wouldn't get enough seats in the next state elections.

Now the ES faction by virtue of tie up with BJP stands a good chance to get the seats.. and then they might suddenly do the prodigal son act with UT taking up (or being manouvered into) the role of the elder statesman a la his father..

Primus · Post by **Primus** » 30 Jun 2022 19:30

Haresh wrote:
sanjayc wrote:high-quality Khukhri. It adorns a shelf in my bedroom now, just in case
With all due respect, it's no use just sitting on your shelf !!
You need to learn to use it, learn how to handle it, not just in the open but in an enclosed space.

Go onto YouTube, plenty of videos.
Get some friends together and make wooden knives, with blunt round tips and practice fighting with them. No holds barred. Only thing out of bounds is the face.

A khukri is a deadly weapon and with all the historical significance associated with it, it becomes even more frightening to an opponent than a simple big knife would be. Years ago in my college days there was a guy who was bullying me and was very aggressive. One day he walked into my hostel room threatening me. I turned around and pulled out the Khukri I had in my closet and faced him. He took one look at the weapon in my hand and ran away, he never bothered me again after that and would actually avoid me.

I had no idea on how to use it, had simply obtained it from a friend on a whim and had it with me. The point is, most Jihadis are bullies and thus cowards at heart. If you face them firmly with a weapon they will run away, unless they are in a mob and you are alone - in that case you better know how to run faster. Even then, if death is inevitable, might as well take down a few with you. Harsh words, I know, but better than having your throat cut like a lamb.

bharathp · Post by **bharathp** » 30 Jun 2022 20:30

request to keep the weapons and usage dialogue to a different page? kind of jarring to the flow on discussion on strat and political debate.

a_bharath ji - why the concerns for not having DF as CM?
I am happy that the BJP is keeping SS alive. for all intents and purposes we cant have only one sanatani party. we need all 50 shades of saffron (ooh - need to trademark that). we need SS to keep BJP honest when dealing with natl level BIF and need BJP to keep SS honest to deal with state level BIF

I would go one to say to get hindu senas from different states to start creating mini-BJPs - after all, thats the alternate ecosystem we all want?

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 30 Jun 2022 20:46

why shinde and not DF https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/p ... 2022-06-30

1. In 2019, the BJP and the Shiv Sena fought and won the state assembly election in an alliance. However, post the results, the alliance broke up over the question of who would occupy the chief minister’s post. Soon after, BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis shocked the political world by taking oath as the CM early in the morning with the support of the NCP’s Ajit Pawar. This hastily clobbered-up alliance didn’t last, but the move made the BJP come across as a party that had a lust for power. Having Eknath Shinde allows the BJP to project an image of a party that is not after power.

2. While departing as the Maharashtra CM, Uddhav Thackeray had managed to set a narrative of having been backstabbed by the BJP. “You [BJP] have brought Balasaheb's son down,” Uddhav said during his resignation speech. This narrative had the potential to bring Uddhav emotional and political benefit as far as the voters were concerned. By ensuring a ‘Shiv Sainik’ as chief minister, this narrative will not have the same impact.

3. The BJP quite clearly wants to create an image that they truly support the legacy of Shiv Sena founder Balasaheb. Devendra Fadnavis said this in as many words during Thursday’s press conference before he made the announcement that Eknath Shinde would be the CM of Maharashtra. After all, with a ‘ Shiv Sainik’ in the CM’s chair, ‘Balasaheb’s dream still remains fulfilled’.

4. The recent developments in Maharashtra have thrown up the question: Who is the real Shiv Sena? The question will probably remain unanswered for some time but having Eknath Shinde, who has been vocal about carrying forward Balasaheb’s true legacy, as CM will make it easier for the BJP to claim that the real Shiv Sena is with the party when the 2024 polls come around.

5. Eknath Shinde may have the support of a sizeable number of Shiv Sena MLAs but things can change in politics at the drop of a hat and so, the threat of the ‘rebel’ MLAs rebelling once again always remains on the horizon. However, these MLAs as part of a government that is led by their own party and not the BJP, will go some way in keeping the camp together.

achy · Post by **achy** » 30 Jun 2022 20:56

Pretty Stupid of BJP high command to not make DF chief minister.. Politics is fought on strength. Master stroke can not be driver and tail should not wag the dog. EVER. All the objectives would still have been fulfilled with DF as chief and ES as Dy Chief. Only thing which could explain this non sense is if BJP is not sure of mlas in SS camp.

This is no 4D chess, this is just stupid! Just like not dealing with CAA protest, farmers protest with firm hand. India has moved on. I think India is ready for Yogi's direct method more then ever but BJP is still pussy footing with living in past.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 30 Jun 2022 21:12

The first order of the day is to keep the flock together, form the government and hope it survives the next 2 yrs. While doing that BJP must ensure the Thackeray faction of SS is relegated to the dustbin of India's political history. It looks like this step was taken so Shinde faction of SS does not come across as a BJP poodle, question ofcourse is will Shinde hold his end of the bargain in 2 yrs time ? Only time will tell.

TKiran · Post by **TKiran** » 30 Jun 2022 21:14

Devendra Fadnavis is KoBra (kokanasth brahmin). Though they are very intelligent and hard working and better than Maratha in sweet talking and mannerisms, they don't have strength in numbers.

Only Shivsena and NCP are Maratha.

If BJP has 2024 as their target, they need to find a maratha. Dev Fadnavis as CM face, they will be nowhere in2024.

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 30 Jun 2022 21:38

It is not in BJP's interest to kill off the original Shiv sena party base, by denying Shinde his stint - the currently confused rank/voters will go over to UT side if that happens. Shivsena under UT, over past two years has accumulated political debt, by hitching with the secular parties and acting more-secular-than-marx. This split will mean that political debt goes to UT-faction. Shinde has shed that baggage cleanly and can go back to being the old Shivsena and with power on his side, he can keep a lid on UT and his idiotic chaparasi from Ali Baug from talking trash. Anyways, we will have to see if Shinde is the streets' choice yet or they go the dynasty-way, but a "chaiwalla and autowalla" combo is great aspirational optics for BJP-Sena poll campaign, compared to a dynasty-princeling setup of UT

But BJP need to rethink their pre-election agreements with regional groupings, if they had in the past agreed to be junior partners, despite having more seats. Such post-election divisions should be agreed upon before hand and solely be based on seats won or vote-share that each bought in

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 30 Jun 2022 21:41

In my opinion Shinde as CM is a good move. It totally takes the wind out of UT's sails to make any sort of maneuvering. SS as a party gets the power, respect and is no longer being treated as a junior partner of BJP, which was the original complaint Shivsainiks had in the first place. Will there be further backstabbing down the line ? No one knows. However it is less likely to happen down this road, compared to the scenario where DF is the CM.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Jun 2022 21:43

To stretch Bhishma pitamaha "Politics is also subtle".
Getting UT to resign was one level battle.
Forming the cabinet is the War.
It addresses many actors overt and covert, within and without Maharashtra and Bharat.
Larry Walker and others are looking at the Maratha angle.
Others should explore all the actors and see how this decision impacts them.

This is how multi-dimensional Chess looks like.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 30 Jun 2022 22:21

This is a tactical decision. Shinde camp needs some legitimacy if they want to take over the Shiv Sena from UT. Nothing brings legitimacy like power. They only have 38 MLA's and their core supporters with them right now. They need to convince the rest of the party workers and councilors to join them. Next important thing is to make sure their camp and BJP gets control of BMC and Sonia Sena is kept out. BJP also needs this version of SS to survive for the 2024 elections. Huge respect to Fadnavis who agreed to this despite knowing he 100% deserves to be the CM.

greatde · Post by **greatde** » 30 Jun 2022 22:22

Is it a immediate political suicide by BJP? Or perhaps BJP doesn't want to face the heat in Maharashtra in short run? A BJP CM is always greater scrutinized and pressure, whereas a non-BJP CM can get away with many things, including development and tough questions. See Nitish as another example.

Perhaps BJP knew the ground reality of the state economically, and 20 months, is not enough time to resolve it. Thus, playing the non-BJP CM card and bringing the caste + limited scrutiny angle.

sanjayc · Post by **sanjayc** » 30 Jun 2022 22:59

DF has become deputy CM

First statement he gives is that Metro-3 car shed will be constructed at Aarey Colony, and not relocated anywhere else