2021 Five State Elections

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 27 Feb 2021 11:17

Hidden amidst the noise is the announcement to hold the by-elections for Kanniyakumari (TN) and Malappuram (KL) parliamentary constituencies. They will be held in parallel with the assembly elections.

https://eci.gov.in/files/file/12921-sch ... regarding/

Kanniyakumari would be interesting for sure. Ably represented by Pon Radhakrishnan (BJP) on 2014-19, he had lost to H. Vasanthakumar of Congress in '19 on the back of the Christian votebank's polarization. Since Vasanthakumar passed away last year, elections need to be held - I am hoping Ponnar makes a comeback. He had worked very hard when he was the MP, and was Gadkari's minister of state for Ports and Highways, and tried very hard to bring a transshipment port to Colachel/Enayam, which was scuttled by the some local vested interests. In fact, the railway doubling and electrification of the Madurai-Nagercoil-Trivandrum route was aimed at providing landside infra for this port, and this project is still going on a rapid pace. Hopefully, it gets revived post elections.

As an aside, Colachel was the site of the only successful naval battle fought by an Indian unit against European colonists (Travancore vs the Dutch). That battle put paid to Dutch ambitions in India once and for all. The unit that fought this battle still survives to this day in the Army, and is now known as 9 Madras. It is the senior most unit in the entire Army and is fondly called the "Nair pattalam", pattalam meaning battalion in local parlance. Used less fondly perhaps, is the nickname "The Terrors"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Colachel
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9th_Batta ... s_Regiment

OmkarC · Post by **OmkarC** » 27 Feb 2021 12:24

arshyam wrote:Hidden amidst the noise is the announcement to hold the by-elections for Kanniyakumari (TN) and Malappuram (KL) parliamentary constituencies. They will be held in parallel with the assembly elections.

https://eci.gov.in/files/file/12921-sch ... regarding/

Kanniyakumari would be interesting for sure. Ably represented by Pon Radhakrishnan (BJP) on 2014-19, he had lost to H. Vasanthakumar of Congress in '19 on the back of the Christian votebank's polarization. Since Vasanthakumar passed away last year, elections need to be held - I am hoping Ponnar makes a comeback. He had worked very hard when he was the MP, and was Gadkari's minister of state for Ports and Highways, and tried very hard to bring a transshipment port to Colachel/Enayam, which was scuttled by the some local vested interests. In fact, the railway doubling and electrification of the Madurai-Nagercoil-Trivandrum route was aimed at providing landside infra for this port, and this project is still going on a rapid pace. Hopefully, it gets revived post elections.

As an aside, Colachel was the site of the only successful naval battle fought by an Indian unit against European colonists (Travancore vs the Dutch). That battle put paid to Dutch ambitions in India once and for all. The unit that fought this battle still survives to this day in the Army, and is now known as 9 Madras. It is the senior most unit in the entire Army and is fondly called the "Nair pattalam", pattalam meaning battalion in local parlance. Used less fondly perhaps, is the nickname "The Terrors"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Colachel
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9th_Batta ... s_Regiment

Good luck to Pon Radhakrishnan.. what are his chances realistically ?

Its a shame Marthanda Varma's victory over Dutch has been brazenly brushed aside in most of our history books.

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 01 Mar 2021 00:15

85-Year-Old Mother Of BJP Leader Gopal Majumdar Speaks Up On Horrifying Attack By Alleged TMC Workers
https://swarajyamag.com/insta/85-year-o ... mc-workers
...
Shova claimed that a group of TMC workers barged into their house at around 4.30 AM in the morning. She claims that they pushed her to the ground and also hit her, including on the face. The attackers also threatened her to keep her mouth shut and warned her against identifying them to the cops.

....

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Mar 2021 03:37

Kati wrote

I think we badly need temporary separate threads for upcoming each state election, at least for WB, AS, TN+PD and KL.

In effect elections two regions East and South India.
The Bengal 8 phase election schedule is announced.

All results by 2 May 2021.

Please be civil as usual and discuss.

Ramana

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Mar 2021 04:43

The Bengal DGP of Land Order has been removed by Election Commission after lots of complaints by the election officials.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 01 Mar 2021 05:21

Bengal, Assam are for BJP to loose and Pondi for them to win. TN who knows and Kerela will be the last to fall

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 01 Mar 2021 06:36

OmkarC wrote:Good luck to Pon Radhakrishnan.. what are his chances realistically ?

If Hindus consolidate and vote like they did in 2014, he has a decent chance. But the Christian population is not insignificant, so who all end up contesting will define the vote split. We'll have to see.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 01 Mar 2021 06:40

fanne wrote:Bengal, Assam are for BJP to loose and Pondi for them to win. TN who knows and Kerela will be the last to fall

Something tells me KL would open the account first (they already have done so with a lone MLA, O Rajagopal). TN "youth" (including those up to 40-years of age) is far too brainwashed with regional pride, one-sided memes and whataboutery. Happy to be proven wrong.

greatde · Post by **greatde** » 01 Mar 2021 22:01

The voting been relatively lower since 2019 LS. Plus more unpredictability in Covid era. BJP needs a good turnout and fight on election day itself. That should be the key issue.

And how is Assam election? Like 35 seats are already gone due to demographics. Thus , remaining 90 seats, NDA needs a win ratio over 70%. And , BDF are out of NDA together with CAA confusion.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 01 Mar 2021 23:02

The opponents of BJP fear that in Pondicherry, the election results do not matter; as BJP will wrest control anyway after the elections. Their supporters are already whining to that effect.

L.Murugan has been insisting from mid-2020 that BJP can do good in 60 seats. That seems to be his number. Amit Shah+ and OPS+EPS discussed seat-sharing for over 3.5 hours. Some rumors claim, BJP asked for 33 and will be given 21 seats. However other news reports say BJP is sticking with 60 seats. AIADMK giving 60 seats to BJP will happen if the World as we now know it ends. AIADMK already has given 23 seats to PMK. Last election AIADMK fought in 227 seats out of 234, giving 7 seats to its partners. So now giving 23 to PMK it is already sitting at 234-23 = 211 seats onlee. It is likely to give 1 or 2 seats to Vijayakanth's party. Maybe other partners will take 3-5. So it will have about 205 seats. How can it give 60 seats to BJP. Not going to happen. If it happens, then one can say TN is saffronized already.

"Learned" and "informed" people "speculate" BJP might get 20+ seats. The point is no one knows what is happening, yet. This is causing immense takleef to AIADMK and DMK, with every passing day, the time to campaign reduces for them. AIADMK + BJP seat sharing is important for DMK's calculation. DMK and Congress relations are not good already. It is like a divorced couple living together for the sake of children.

As per news reports, BJP's goal is to keep AIADMK and DMK to less than 100 seats each. That will give all the partners the means to dicate. If BJP wins 15 seats, then it will be in a terrific driver's seat. The cut-off is 117 seats. If AIADMK does not go past 100, then it will need PMK (which is likely to win a few seats) and BJP (if it wins a few).

I am cautiously optimistic. BJP getting 5 seats will make me feel good. It has never happened before. Anything below 5 will be disappointing. Getting 10 MLAs would be "paawri ho rahi hain" moment. 15 seats mean we all have achieved Moksham. There is no rebirth for us.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 02 Mar 2021 00:27

arshyam wrote:Something tells me KL would open the account first (they already have done so with a lone MLA, O Rajagopal). TN "youth" (including those up to 40-years of age) is far too brainwashed with regional pride, one-sided memes and whataboutery. Happy to be proven wrong.

Some KL insight:
1. Wisible BJP mobilization but unlikely to be more than #3 behind LDF and UDF. Family sources think LDF will win. However LDF may become kabocha-like - green outside, saffron inside.
2. Some family property was being sold. Main interested party was INC office bearer looking for regional office. Deal fell through because they have no money.

madhu · Post by **madhu** » 02 Mar 2021 03:54

Assembly elections 2021: Opinion poll shows Mamata retaining West Bengal, Assam likely to go BJP’s way

Assam Assembly Election 2021 Opinion Poll: In Assam, the NDA is expected to retain power by winning 68-76 seats in the 126-member assembly. The opposition Congress is likely to get 43-51 seats while others may bag around 5-10 seats.

West Bengal Assembly Election 2021 Opinion Poll: The politically charged state where the ruling TMC and the BJP have locked horns in a straight contest seems to have trusting the incumbent government. As per the opinion poll, Mamata Banerjee is all set to score a hat-trick in Bengal with the TMC winning around 148-164 seats in the 294-member Assembly. The BJP is expected to increase its tally to somewhere around 92-108 seats from just 3 at present. The Congress-Left alliance may only get around 31-39 seats.

Kerala Assembly Election 2021 Opinion Poll: Despite the corruption allegations and opposition onslaught, the Left government is expected to reverse the trend of people electing alternative governments with the LDF and the UDF switching roles. Pinarayi Vijayan-led LDF government is expected to get 83-91 of the 140 seats. The Congress-led UDF is expected to win 47-55 seats. The BJP may get just two seats.

Puducherry Assembly Election 2021 Opinion Poll: The Union Territory which has been at the centre of political controversy is set to give a shock to the Congress. The NDA may form the government by winning 17-21 seats of the 30-member Assembly. The Congress may win around 12 seats.

Tamil Nadu Assembly Election 2021 Opinion Poll: There is a piece of bad news for the AIADMK-BJP alliance as MK Stalin led Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) is expected to return to power in the state. While the DMK is expected to win 154-162, the ruling AIADMK may just get 58-66 seats in the state’s 234-member assembly. Other parties including Kamal Hasan’s Makkal Neethi Maiam, which is contesting the election for the first time, may win 8-20 seats.

OmkarC · Post by **OmkarC** » 02 Mar 2021 04:00

https://www.organiser.org/Encyc/2021/2/ ... talin.html

Is this a big news in TN ? will there be any potential electoral impact on Dalit votes due to this incident ?

AkshaySG · Post by **AkshaySG** » 02 Mar 2021 06:00

Recent Opinion polls from Bengal

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Mar 2021 07:49

Thanks for posting data and less opinions.
Also sometimes please analyze the data
who is it from, when is it from what does it say, what are its strong points and weak points?

Example in above picture NK Digital giving 69 to BJP is skewing the results.

One technique taught to me in laboratory is throw out the high and the low as outliers and see the average.
ie throw out NK Digital and Priyobandho

This means for TMC I get 143 and BJP 129 as of March 1

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 02 Mar 2021 08:14

OmkarC wrote:https://www.organiser.org/Encyc/2021/2/ ... talin.html

Is this a big news in TN ? will there be any potential electoral impact on Dalit votes due to this incident ?

Nope, many SC ST are controlled by the Church who are heavily invested in INC so many will have to vote for INC DMK combine as per dictates, DMK politicos are mostly Telegu mother tongue Land owners who get classified as OBC's who have contempt in many cases for Tamilians and perform the worst cases of atrocities against SC/ST. Most DMK and TDP families 3 generations were part of the Justice party. The sense of family and relatives is very strong in these groups. They also control vast sections of Business and NGO segments in the state.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 02 Mar 2021 08:15

OmkarC wrote:Is this a big news in TN ? will there be any potential electoral impact on Dalit votes due to this incident ?

Negligible impact. Media and all propganda heavily controlled by DMK. DMK has done similar things in the past as well.

Plus TN is heavily a casteist state. Even some of the AIADMK partners like PMK are casteist. Vanniyar vs Dalits issue has been going on for sometime now.

RSS has been working with Devendra Kulla Vellalar, who are classified as SC. Modi met one of their long standing demands. Their community is split among Hindus and Christians. It is expected that they will move to NDA. Both there are seat sharing still pending, that might impact BJP's actions on the ground.

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 02 Mar 2021 11:48

AkshaySG wrote:Recent Opinion polls from Bengal

Also notice how big media houses are projecting TMC while the average guy is projecting BJP. A friend was classmate with a high ranking CRPF guy who is posted in WB. This guy is congi but says BJP is set to come in WB.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 02 Mar 2021 12:44

Interesting situation in Kerala
There is a Yoga Guru in Kerala, with credibility and fan following who goes with the name Sri M. Sri M is a Muslim, but is also very close to RSS. He is to have mediated peace talks between RSS and the CPI(M) for a truce. Now the CPI(M) led GoKL has also allotted 4 Acre land to Sri M for the Satsang Foundation. All this has now led to a rumour that this time around the Commies and Sanghies will gang up and finish the Indian National Congress for good. Kerala is like one of the last bastions of INC and a defeat there will severly dent the party's (and Ra.Ga's) image.

But A. Shah being A.Shah; I do get a feeling that this would be the first step. Congress Mukt Bharath for a starter, and perhaps 10 years down the line make the politics completely based on religious lines. The various Muslim outfits on one side v/s Hindu & X'ian voters from the other parties on other side.

AshishA wrote:So how much of a impact will he have in kerala? Would BJP gain considerable political power in kerala or will it be irrelevant to other parties?

BJP may increase their vote share, and could win a couple of seats. But it would not be a decisive power in Kerala, is what I feel. E. Sreedharan & P.T Usha joining BJP camp perhaps would improve the image of the party in the state, but it may not swing too many votes. In Kerala any thing and every one associated with BJP (or RSS or Hinduism) is generally considered as "communal", where as any thing or any in favour of any other religion is "secular".

There was this case of two X'ian MLAs giving donations to the Ram temple at Ayodhya. One of them apologized when it was reported that money was given to RSS workers. Another one with a really sharp tongue; also donated and when a peacefool called him to remind him that he is going against 'secularism' that fellow got some sharp response in return. The audacity of the peacefool dude to call donations to a Hindu temple as 'communal' and threatening the MLA of electoral defeat shows what is 'secularism' in Kerala

.

The joining of PT Usha and E. Sreedharan also has to be reviewed in this background. The only positive aspect is that all these people were achievers in their respective fields (but not politics). Don't know if BJP's plan was to show them as a party of "go getters", but if that is the plan they will have to review the ability of the party leadership (!?) in the state

. The party leadership in the state is infamous for petty in-fighting, and trying to "milk any situation" (with every one knowing their true intentions).

RajaRudra · Post by **RajaRudra** » 02 Mar 2021 13:29

In TN -There was a surprise announcement by Modi with regard to recognizing "Devendrakula Vellalar" caste.
This may tilt the balance either way(some votes may go, some new votes may come)

A little tidbit,
The community of "Pallars" consisting of 7 sub castes are in Scheduled Castes list. They are convinced that they are not SC by any chance and their community got added to the list by mistake several decades back. This demand is consistent for many decades and they had made several representation and protests to this effort many times. No parties taken this demand seriously, but ADMK- BJP sensed this opportunity and made a quick and swift move of PM Modi accepting(in a way advocating) the demand of renaming the community as "Devendrakula vellalar" from "pallars". This is huge announcement in itself. Though there is no announcement with regard to moving from SC to BC.

This came as a surprise for many including the DMK. Significantly the ruling ADMK passed the resolution and sent the request to the Central govt soon enough. Now only the passing the resolution in LS and RS is pending.

This community votes can be of 4 to 6 percentage(My Guess) and BJP may have got at least 60 percentage of this community vote as a base in Tamil Nadu now onwards. Which is a huge considering the nascent stage the BJP in the state as of now.

No party, including DMK and Congress can openly come against it, as it will alienate this community against their party. (This move has given a bit of resentment to the castes who are using the "vellalar" as a common link)

Lets see.

RajaRudra · Post by **RajaRudra** » 02 Mar 2021 13:36

Sachin wrote:Interesting situation in Kerala

BJP may increase their vote share, and could win a couple of seats. But it would not be a decisive power in Kerala, is what I feel. E. Sreedharan & P.T Usha joining BJP camp perhaps would improve the image of the party in the state, but it may not swing too many votes. In Kerala any thing and every one associated with BJP (or RSS or Hinduism) is generally considered as "communal", where as any thing or any in favour of any other religion is "secular".

T

From the day one, BJP is a militant party in Kerala. Every percentage of growth is based on the blood of RSS and BJP workers. It may be growing slowly , but the moment one big party collapses(either Congress or Commies), there will be a full shift of hindu voters from that party to BJP.

By not aligning with any major parties there(forced to), what ever the percentage of votes they gather are hardcore supporter/activists and not the last minute voters.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 02 Mar 2021 19:05

Any idea where Director Ameer Sultan is there these days and why is he having a low profile.

OmkarC · Post by **OmkarC** » 03 Mar 2021 00:28

RajaRudra wrote:In TN -There was a surprise announcement by Modi with regard to recognizing "Devendrakula Vellalar" caste.
This may tilt the balance either way(some votes may go, some new votes may come)

A little tidbit,
The community of "Pallars" consisting of 7 sub castes are in Scheduled Castes list. They are convinced that they are not SC by any chance and their community got added to the list by mistake several decades back. This demand is consistent for many decades and they had made several representation and protests to this effort many times. No parties taken this demand seriously, but ADMK- BJP sensed this opportunity and made a quick and swift move of PM Modi accepting(in a way advocating) the demand of renaming the community as "Devendrakula vellalar" from "pallars". This is huge announcement in itself. Though there is no announcement with regard to moving from SC to BC.

This came as a surprise for many including the DMK. Significantly the ruling ADMK passed the resolution and sent the request to the Central govt soon enough. Now only the passing the resolution in LS and RS is pending.

This community votes can be of 4 to 6 percentage(My Guess) and BJP may have got at least 60 percentage of this community vote as a base in Tamil Nadu now onwards. Which is a huge considering the nascent stage the BJP in the state as of now.

No party, including DMK and Congress can openly come against it, as it will alienate this community against their party. (This move has given a bit of resentment to the castes who are using the "vellalar" as a common link)

Lets see.

This is smart politics.. am sure this concept can be generalized to other South Indian states to break the votebank of sickular anti-Hindu regional parties.. like both TDP & YSRCP in AP for eg.

Arima · Post by **Arima** » 03 Mar 2021 00:48

Aditya_V wrote:
OmkarC wrote:https://www.organiser.org/Encyc/2021/2/ ... talin.html

Is this a big news in TN ? will there be any potential electoral impact on Dalit votes due to this incident ?
Nope, many SC ST are controlled by the Church who are heavily invested in INC so many will have to vote for INC DMK combine as per dictates, DMK politicos are mostly Telegu mother tongue Land owners who get classified as OBC's who have contempt in many cases for Tamilians and perform the worst cases of atrocities against SC/ST. Most DMK and TDP families 3 generations were part of the Justice party. The sense of family and relatives is very strong in these groups. They also control vast sections of Business and NGO segments in the state.

Dravida party leaders have telugu lineage, yes, but they are successful mainly due to social engineering through reservation (samooganeedhi), caste based politics. end of day they have made 6-8 castes too powerful while alienating many small ones. strong monitory vote bank who act as BIF.

out of 6-8 only 2 have shown some leaning towards BJP while others are going strong with dravida parties.

new social engineering by BJP is going to demolish this old caste power house and rewrite equations in months and years to come.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 03 Mar 2021 00:51

Aditya_V wrote:
OmkarC wrote:https://www.organiser.org/Encyc/2021/2/ ... talin.html

Is this a big news in TN ? will there be any potential electoral impact on Dalit votes due to this incident ?
Nope, many SC ST are controlled by the Church who are heavily invested in INC so many will have to vote for INC DMK combine as per dictates, DMK politicos are mostly Telegu mother tongue Land owners who get classified as OBC's who have contempt in many cases for Tamilians and perform the worst cases of atrocities against SC/ST. Most DMK and TDP families 3 generations were part of the Justice party. The sense of family and relatives is very strong in these groups. They also control vast sections of Business and NGO segments in the state.

pappu's dancing and pushups antics have been held at a govt funded xtian school with the padres openly cheering pappu on, while egging on the school kids to cheer him.

padres are mostly garbed in their traditional get up and are very actively taking part in the proceedings.

sister in fancy dress is picking tea leaves in assam

this is a poor bunty and babli imitation dreamed up by some white skinned harvard type professor trying to make a fast buck advising these two eyetalian family desi royalty

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 03 Mar 2021 01:33

Breaking News : As per BJP survey, right now BJP is winning 195 seats.

#BengalElections2021

https://twitter.com/Ash_Rokzz23/status/ ... 18272?s=19

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 03 Mar 2021 23:01

https://www.rediff.com/news/report/sasi ... 210303.htm
Sasikala takes everyone by surprise, says she is quitting politics

In a sudden statement on Wednesday night, VK Sasikala, the confidante of former Tamil Nadu chief minister J Jayalalithaa, has announced that she was quitting politics.

Sasikala, whose release from jail in Bengaluru and subsequent return to Tamil Nadu earlier this year threw the ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam into a tizzy, also asked the AIADMK cadre to stand united and ensure that the opposition Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam is defeated in the forthcoming assembly elections.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 04 Mar 2021 01:47

You may recollect that Sonia Gandhi went to the US a few months ago for some treatment, she hasn't made any public appearances since then. She is three quarters there and has probably thrown in the towel due to health reasons. That leaves Pappu Baba and Mrs Vadra in charge of the enormous moolah that Gandhi family has stashed away over decades. Sonia would trust no one but her progeny with the keys to the tijori. But alas Pappu is an idiot and will lose his key, and Prinka's husband Raabert (s/o Ajit) will runaway with the key. Most likely multiple keys are required to open the tijori.

Sonia has probably made Maunmohan and Chiddu the key keepers until her 50+ progeny come of age someday and graduate from youth to adulthood. They can be trusted because they are the ones who helped shore up a significant part of the moolah in the first place. Chiddu got the Shahi treatment already and will be very careful, he knows he is closely watched. Maunmohan has silently risen above the fray, and will play his joker - the Sikh card - as soon as he is threatened. He hasn't digested the DeMon that NaMo unleashed last time, and still grumbles about it. Just last week he said unemployment is due to DeMon, and he is right. Its unemployment of Kangiress party cadre is talking about.

The Kangiress dissenters like Ka-pill and SlaveNabiFree know Sonia's predicament and see a golden opportunity to get hold of (some of the) keys and their rebel meetings etc are simply to backmail Sonia and get her to share the moolah. Without the Kangiress logo behind them, these dissenters who lived genuflecting before the Gandhis cant take on BJP and win anywhere. Especially an LS seat.

Kangiress' fall will truly happen when Chiddu and Maunmohan are caught opening the tijori to fund the upcoming 5 state election campaigns and to throw some biscuits to keep the dissenters at bay.

ED is the crouching tiger, you can fill in the rest...

Next few months will be truly amusing...

Arima · Post by **Arima** » 04 Mar 2021 09:15

vijayk wrote:https://www.rediff.com/news/report/sasi ... 210303.htm
Sasikala takes everyone by surprise, says she is quitting politics

In a sudden statement on Wednesday night, VK Sasikala, the confidante of former Tamil Nadu chief minister J Jayalalithaa, has announced that she was quitting politics.

Sasikala, whose release from jail in Bengaluru and subsequent return to Tamil Nadu earlier this year threw the ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam into a tizzy, also asked the AIADMK cadre to stand united and ensure that the opposition Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam is defeated in the forthcoming assembly elections.

BJP has brokered some deal between Waring faction it seems. tactically brilliant from election point of view.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 04 Mar 2021 09:28

Sasikala leading AIDMK was the dream of the DMK Congress, now with this move they have feel the nepotism fire.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 04 Mar 2021 11:31

Bengal election is too close to call.
1. Half of the seats are going to be decided by a margin less than 1%, and hence it's a total toss up.
2. Importantly, RSS has started a very quiet reaching out to voters exercise at the very grass--root level throughout the state. Normally, they keep this very low-key, and the voters also keep their mouth shut after such one to one discussions.

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 04 Mar 2021 19:08

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ele ... 328590.cms
Now then!!!
Has NaMo and AS had a rethink of the magic 75!!!

Yeddi continuing in Karnataka as CM
Metroman anointed as a CM candidate!!
Agreed BJP coming to power in Kerala is far fetched but its the decision in principle!!
What does this mean for the 2024
Vishwaguru will complete the third term if elected then!!

Is this because of potential infighting if he leaves too early or lack of suitable candidates
Yogi??? PotKari?? or even the young pipsqueak Surya!!!

Sure NaMo knows how keep the unwashed opposition in disarray
Few articles by Yashwant in the near future surely!!

Hmm what would 'Lohapurush' and Murlimohan have to say

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 04 Mar 2021 21:56

Rsatchi wrote:https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ele ... 328590.cms
Now then!!!
Has NaMo and AS had a rethink of the magic 75!!!
Yeddi continuing in Karnataka as CM
Metroman anointed as a CM candidate!!
Agreed BJP coming to power in Kerala is far fetched but its the decision in principle!!
What does this mean for the 2024
Vishwaguru will complete the third term if elected then!!
Is this because of potential infighting if he leaves too early or lack of suitable candidates
Yogi??? PotKari?? or even the young pipsqueak Surya!!!
Sure NaMo knows how keep the unwashed opposition in disarray
Few articles by Yashwant in the near future surely!! Hmm what would 'Lohapurush' and Murlimohan have to say

in KAR, yeddi, on his own, has the unmistakable power to split and sink the BJP for good. So there are no other options open to the BJP here.

In KER, the BJP is playing childish games.

with or without the metroman, there is no way that the BJP is coming to power there.

the 75 year age limit is meaningless in both these states.

najma heptullah was moved to governorship at that age as have so many others past the 75 year limit

modi will not stay beyond 75.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 05 Mar 2021 04:42

A few breaking news:
- BJP proposes E . Sridharan as Kerala CM.
Will Kerala throw away Commie//Congress secularism and show they have wisdom with their literacy or stick to the old formula?

- ECI requested more troops for Bengal. In fact 650 companies of SSB being sent in addition to the nearly 340 CAPF. Also, note there is the threat of China misbehaving as it is in midst of its April 2020 adventure in Ladakh.

- TN is throwing daily surprises.

- AIMIM Owaisi got shamed into giving a speech decrying Muslim women harassment by their menfolk after the poor girl Ayisha committed suicide unable to deal with demands of dowry from her husband and family.

Please no emojis in this thread as we want to be serious.
if you feel the need then please leave.

asgkhan · Post by **asgkhan** » 05 Mar 2021 09:44

Arima wrote:
BJP has brokered some deal between Waring faction it seems. tactically brilliant from election point of view.

Swarajya has compiled the conspiracy theories of Sasikala's exit.

https://swarajyamag.com/politics/so-why ... y-theories

Lady is biding her time to make an entry after the elections are over, in case EPS+OPS sink the government in TN.

Mukhi · Post by **Mukhi** » 05 Mar 2021 13:00

Just watched PK’s interview. Presence of hidden psy war. His bet to leave the space of Political Strategist if BJP gets more than 100 seats. How can BJP do UP in WB?? Not Dhoti Shivering but curious question.

Last election - 83% Turnout (Wiki)
TMC - 45% @ 24,565,000 Votes VS 39% in 2011
Left - 20% @ 10,802,000 Votes VS 32% in 2011
INC - 12% @ 6,701,000 Votes VS 9% in 2011
BJP - 10% @ 5,555,000 Votes - None in 2011

Present Population - Approx - 104,000,000.
Muslims - 27%
Christians - 1%
Rest Including Hindus - 72%

Eligible Voters - 83,295,000
Expected Voting Estimates Based on Historic Data - 83% (Pure Guess But Based on History)

Meaning, BJP needs to keep its vote share intact and gain additional 12,500,000 votes from across the board to win Majority.

Gurus on the Ground. What say you??

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 06 Mar 2021 06:51

BJP allocated 20 seats by AIADMK. In 2016, BJP contesting alone was runner up in 4 seats, hope they have a better strike rate this time

la.khan · Post by **la.khan** » 06 Mar 2021 10:14

Mukhi wrote:Just watched PK’s interview. Presence of hidden psy war. His bet to leave the space of Political Strategist if BJP gets more than 100 seats. How can BJP do UP in WB?? Not Dhoti Shivering but curious question.

I am not a Bengali and I don't have my ears/feet/whatever on the ground, but PK is a snake oil salesman. He keeps harping on BJP's denominator reduced to 70%. Agreed. But what if somebody in BJP or Bengali electorate decide to reduce TC's denominator to 30%? How good are Didi/PK/TC playing reverse swing?

Bengal has approximately 70% Hindu population; even if half of them vote for BJP, PK is looking at retirement

Also, please remember no political party, including TC, INC+Left, AIMIM or any new entrant has a lock in on these 30%. Every one of them is chasing the same 30%

and Ms vote is going to be split up

All in all, a most interesting election is on the cards

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 06 Mar 2021 17:46

la.khan wrote:
Mukhi wrote:Just watched PK’s interview. Presence of hidden psy war. His bet to leave the space of Political Strategist if BJP gets more than 100 seats. How can BJP do UP in WB?? Not Dhoti Shivering but curious question.
I am not a Bengali and I don't have my ears/feet/whatever on the ground, but PK is a snake oil salesman. He keeps harping on BJP's denominator reduced to 70%. Agreed. But what if somebody in BJP or Bengali electorate decide to reduce TC's denominator to 30%? How good are Didi/PK/TC playing reverse swing?

Bengal has approximately 70% Hindu population; even if half of them vote for BJP, PK is looking at retirement Also, please remember no political party, including TC, INC+Left, AIMIM or any new entrant has a lock in on these 30%. Every one of them is chasing the same 30% and Ms vote is going to be split up

All in all, a most interesting election is on the cards

he charges anywhere from 300-650 odd crores from each "client".

He has lost many more seats than he has won and yet he has "clients"

wonder who is laundering money through whom.

he is rumoured to kick back huge sums for getting the contract.

this slimebag is never going to quit such a lucrative scheme that many parties want him to continue.

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 06 Mar 2021 20:01

Kutch origin, Bengal politician Dinesh Trivedi joins BJP
https://www.deshgujarat.com/2021/03/06/ ... joins-bjp/