2021 Five State Elections

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Kati
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Kati »

Had a long discussion with several people over the last few days who have the ears in the ground. Well before the election local level BJP leaders in Maldah, Hooghly, Howrah, and two Dinajpurs behaved as if they had already won the election. Perhaps this complacency took roots based on the 2019 GE.

Mumtaz Banoo on the other hand increased her dole-outs systematically in deep rural pockets and kept close tabs on her local party leaders.
chetak
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by chetak »

Kati wrote:Had a long discussion with several people over the last few days who have theirs in the ground. Well before the election local level BJP leaders in Maldah, Hooghly, Howrah and two Dinajpurs behaved as if they had already won the election. Perhaps this complacency took roots based on the 2019 GE.

Mumtaz Banoo on the other hand increased her dole outs systematically in deep rural pockets, and kept a close tabs on her local party leaders.
the last two phases show heavy voting numbers from the TMC voters and very little numbers from the BJP guys
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by KL Dubey »

Kati wrote:Sonwal is a perfect gentleman, he will be inducted in the central cabinet. On the other hand, Sharma is a great strategist, - not only did he help win Assam this time, but also he has left his footprints in other NE states. Especially in Tripura he worked very hard too.
He is no stranger to working in New Delhi. He was an MoS first and then a cabinet minister. Viswasharma, true to his name, will be a safe guardian of NDA in northeastern India.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Yagnasri »

Now that the elections are over, it would be better to close this thread.
Kati
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Kati »

So I asked my mom's domestic help why TMC in her neighborhood won in spite of all the corruptions with reliefs of Ailaa and Amphan cyclones.

She is from a remote village in Sundarban area. She, her husband and three kids now cram in a small slum dwelling and do all sorts of odd jobs to make a living. While she works in multiple homes in this part of the eastern suburb of Kolkata, her husband and sons are basically cheap labors hauling heavy loads all day long.

Initially she was evasive about her response, saying "O dada, I don't know much about politics etc etc". Then I pointed out that in the rural block of Sundarban TMC took a good lead, and even in this part of Kolkata,where her busti falls, TMC won handsomely. Then she started talking....

(i) In her slum area they live in a tiny rented place, like many other basti dwellers. The owners charge them a rent of average Rs. 1500 per month. A few owners, actually slum-lords, own the entire area, and they have been itching for a while to increase the rent. But then the basti dwellers went to the local TMC councilor to prevent the rent hike. He did manage to prevent that. Not only that, he then installed street lights in the area which was a longtime demand of the womenfolks, he also provided them with running water and toilets.... with the understanding that the entire basti votes for TMC.

(ii) And what about Sundarban village? Till 2012 there was no asphalt road, but now 'didi' has built one. There was no electricity, but now there is ample lighting. There was no running water, but now her village has running tap water. I asked ir the water supply like the city system? She said yes, local panchayat has made it possible.

She added that it's true that there were a lot of corruptions with Amphan relief, but people looked at the bigger picture - what they had under the left front, and what they have now.

I gingerly agree, but isn't that money comes from the center? Pradhan Mantri sadak Yojana? It is supposed to provide rural connectivity, but some how Mumtaaz banoo is taking all the credit. Swach Bharat money is taken, and repackaged as "Nirmal Bangla" (Clean Bengal) initiative. ...
BJP needs to counter this incoming days. But for the village folks, who have been deprived for too long, any substantial improvement is a real "Paribartan" for them, and hence they don't want to rock the boat.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by chetak »

chetak wrote:
Kati wrote:Had a long discussion with several people over the last few days who have theirs in the ground. Well before the election local level BJP leaders in Maldah, Hooghly, Howrah and two Dinajpurs behaved as if they had already won the election. Perhaps this complacency took roots based on the 2019 GE.

Mumtaz Banoo on the other hand increased her dole outs systematically in deep rural pockets, and kept a close tabs on her local party leaders.
the last two phases show heavy voting numbers from the TMC voters and very little numbers from the BJP guys
this is what I was looking for.

any truth in these numbers, Kati ji

No idea of source or any other identification with the image


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ramana
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by ramana »

Those are actual numbers. In that graph, TMC (green bar) did get more vote share in every phase.


For BJP had they maintained the level of support in the first two phases (~44%) they would have won.
A seat-by-seat analysis shows BJP came second in 202 seats that TMC won.
And further analysis shows a total of < 779,315 votes cumulative would have given a simple majority of 146. This works out to 3.41% of BJP vote share.
Or put simply 200000 votes would bring them 113 seats.
So it was a turnout issue. Despite so many phases and extra security, some voters stayed home.

So it was not a terrible loss as is being portrayed.
And explains why #Jihadidi is working hard for she knows the Bargis are coming.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by ramana »

Kati all Opposition states are re-packaging Central govt schemes as their schemes and as if they are giving from their own pocket.
WB is close to bankruptcy as it hardly produces anything worthwhile.
In 1970 WB share of GDDP was 21%. Now it is about 2.4%.
So how will they give any support to people?
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Aditya_V »

If what is posted above is correct Local BJP leaders thought it was BJP Vs TMC and thought they had enough but it was BJP VS TMC+INC+Left. Thats why while Rahul Gandhi rejoiced as Mamata victory as his victory- his cadre have realised that the leadership sacrifice by the Left and INC and doomed the parties for 2024 and 2026- they have become the NTK and MNM of bengal- 2% votes + 2% votes without ever winning again- i.e fringe players. I see now the Hindu Left and INC cadre will completely move to BJP.

The only question is how the COVID situation plays which has been a GOD for Chinese COmmunist party, Pakis, US democrats and Indian opposition so far.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by chetak »

Modi's megalomania knows no limits


To the manor born


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Kati
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Kati »

ramana wrote:Kati all Opposition states are re-packaging Central govt schemes as their schemes and as if they are giving from their own pocket.
WB is close to bankruptcy as it hardly produces anything worthwhile.
In 1970 WB share of GDDP was 21%. Now it is about 2.4%.
So how will they give any support to people?
True Saar.
When the LF left after 34 years of mostly mismanagement, they bankrupted the state and left a debt of about Rs. 2 lakh crore.
What we are hearing is that the total debt is about Rs. 3.89 Lakh crore. ... And the dole-outs are still going on.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Kati »

Chetak-Saar,
This article has a good set of statistics:
https://www.thehindu.com/data/data-asse ... 491637.ece

If I recall correctly, BJP's best performance has been in Phase-5 in terms of total seats won, but % wise it was Phase-1 when BJP got 40% of the seats.
Details here (see the near bottom of the page): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_West ... y_election
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Kati »

What is interesting is that more the farmers in a seat, better the performance of BJP has been.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Kati »

As I try to piece together more information by talking to a wide spectrum of people, an emerging factor seen is that people were a bit ticked off by the central leaders making so many rounds in WB, and this has had helped TMC drive the point home that the BJP state leaders are inept and too dependent on the central leadership. It has given TMC some sympathy wave.

After the poll results, some are showing the glaring differences how Mumtaz Banoo defends her flock and how the state BJP leaders have behaved in the face of BJP workers getting attacked. In the past, whenever the CPM mercenaries attacked TMC party workers Mumtaaz banoo was there to stage dharna, staying with the affected families, and making them martyrs. Nothing of that magnitude has been done by the state BJP leaders. No substantial compensation has been declared publicly by the party for the affected workers.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by ramana »

Not to defend them but BJP loss was quite unexpected and induced paralysis. Also the Governor lines of command to Chief Secretary and DGP were blurred.
Both the officials were complicit in the violence.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Kakkaji »

BJP’s tally in West Bengal Assembly reduces to 75 as two MLAs resign
Just 10 days after it won a record 77 seats in the 294-member West Bengal Assembly, its tally has reduced to 75 seats with two of its elected members resigning from the post of MLAs. Notably, the BJP has fielded four sitting MPs in the West Bengal polls which included Union Minister Babul Supriyo, Locket Chatterjee, Jagannath Sarkar and Nisith Pramanik. While Supriyo and Chatterjee had lost the election, Sarkar and Pramanik had managed to win the assembly polls.

Jagannath Sarkar and Nisith Pramanik were elected to the Bengal assembly from Santipur and Dinhata seat respectively. Since a leader cannot hold two constitutional posts simultaneously, they had the option to resign either from Parliament or from Assembly. The two MPs, therefore, today resigned from their respective seats and submitted their resignation to West Bengal Speaker Biman Banerjee.
I think Mamata will now run from one of these two seats to get elected to the Vidhan Sabha.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Kati »

Kakkaji wrote:BJP’s tally in West Bengal Assembly reduces to 75 as two MLAs resign
Just 10 days after it won a record 77 seats in the 294-member West Bengal Assembly, its tally has reduced to 75 seats with two of its elected members resigning from the post of MLAs. Notably, the BJP has fielded four sitting MPs in the West Bengal polls which included Union Minister Babul Supriyo, Locket Chatterjee, Jagannath Sarkar and Nisith Pramanik. While Supriyo and Chatterjee had lost the election, Sarkar and Pramanik had managed to win the assembly polls.

Jagannath Sarkar and Nisith Pramanik were elected to the Bengal assembly from Santipur and Dinhata seat respectively. Since a leader cannot hold two constitutional posts simultaneously, they had the option to resign either from Parliament or from Assembly. The two MPs, therefore, today resigned from their respective seats and submitted their resignation to West Bengal Speaker Biman Banerjee.
I think Mamata will now run from one of these two seats to get elected to the Vidhan Sabha.
Both Pramanik and Sarkar should make sure that BJP retains those two seats in the by-election. Pramanik is really a strongman of Dinhata, and he can ensure that. However, I'm not sure about Sarkar though Santipur falls in Nadia district where BJP has fared well.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Kati »

Some words on the streets.....

1. It has been one week since she (Mumtaaz) has taken over the reign for the third time. But why is she unusually quiet and subdued? Anything unpleasant cooking up for her?
2. EC has sent the EVMs to Bangaluru for forensic testing, is she afraid of that?
3. NM and AS are also unusually quiet, and usually that had happened before surgical strikes..... is anything coming up?
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Rahul M »

Kati sir, all valid points and tallies nicely with my own observations.

Re: 3 above, I was also reminded of the post pulwama almost deliberate kari-ninda phase. Hope we are correct because massive disillusionment is setting in among even hardcore believers and a non action would push many beyond the point of no return.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Rudradev »

To state the obvious, the COVID surge is the most threatening challenge Modi/AS have faced to date by a very long shot. People are seething and (rightfully or not) will ultimately blame the GOI. The emotionally hypercharged atmosphere and generalized fear psychosis also mean that fact-based argumentation goes for a toss: it's the ideal climate for fake news, outraged-based propaganda, rumor spreading and virtue signaling.

Modi and AS fortunately have 2.5 years to make people forgive the GOI for this (they won't forget, but by some miracle it may be possible to convince enough people that the fault was not completely GOI's and/or the GOI did respond sufficiently to prevent things from becoming much worse).

How best to use those 2.5 years?
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by sanjayc »

This Covid thing is temporary and public memory is short. India is doing much better than other countries in this regard. Covid cases have started dropping already. By Aug, shortage of vaccines will be over. By Dec, whole country will be vaccinated. From Oct / Nov, life will be largely back to normal. Most of this crisis is due to media hype (Toilet paper publishing photo of a burning pyre every day) and CMs slyly dumping the blame on Modi for their administrative failures.
Last edited by sanjayc on 14 May 2021 02:18, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Krishna_V »

Do we have any source where BJP requested for virtual rallies and opposition was against it?
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Rudradev »

Public memory is short for things like onion price inflation, or even for things like demonetisation queues and GST chaos. It can even be overcome in the case of single, isolated terrorist attacks however deadly they might be (we saw this in the case of 26/11).

This is different, however. 2 lakh plus have died. All those families will remember for a long time, including their extended families, social circles etc. Remember it was not one scam that brought down the UPA government-- but a perception that multiple huge scams kept on occurring in a serial fashion with no attempt to enforce the rule of law. This made other episodes of lawlessness (like the Nirbhaya rape case) stand out much more than they otherwise would have-- the underlying lack of faith in the government to enforce laws for the good of the common man had already been established.

The sense that a problem is ongoing and systemic (this will be reinforced if there is a third-plus wave of COVID) can be much more harmful than some "one-and-done" episode. I'm worried about this, and also about the economy (that was just starting to recover from the first wave). Some massive economic stimulus is going to be needed, especially relief for the middle class.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Ambar »

You can write off the next 6 months because the government will be busy managing the 2nd wave, vaccinating the entire population and preparing for the 3rd wave. That leaves us with another 24 to 26 months before the general elections by which many states including UP and GJ will also go to polls. The no.1 item on Modi's agenda for the next 24 months should be to lift the economy, nothing else will win him the elections. As much as we like to think that CAA, NRC, Ayodhya or taking firm steps to contain Pakis and China will attract votes they don't atleast not to the degree that ease and quality of life, jobs and a robust economy do. You need to alleviate the pain of the poor and the middle class who are the worst hit by this crisis, other than automobile companies, supermarkets and those involved in healthcare everyone else has suffered due to the pandemic, and it will take years for many to recover financially.

Two, the government cannot afford any more missteps and this includes acts with good intention like CAA or farm bills. Just put heads down and work with the current set of laws and improve the administration instead of introducing new laws and inviting more BIF protests and rioting. There isnt much time left anyways and what good did CAA do when after 2 yrs since it turned into an act is still awaiting for rules to be formed. Same with farm bills which now has been parked for the next 3 years.

Three, go for "feel good" projects. A quarter of a million families have lost their loved ones, millions have either lost their livelihoods or seen their finances get devastated, so give people something to cheer about. This should include more medical colleges, hospitals and yes completing Ayodhya temple project.

Above all bring in some fresh faces into the cabinet. People like N Sitharaman, Javedkar, Ravishankar Prasad, Harshavardhan will not win votes and they are deadweights, there isnt much time left to salvage what's left of the 2nd term, so its time to introduce some young blood.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by ramana »

The perception after Bengal is NaMo is weaker. On the contrary his power increases as more RS members from Bengal.
Second as above posts show BJP chances were slim and still needed a little more turnout to change the defeat into victory.
Third second wave Covid is abating as seen by graphs.

I expect NaMo will exert power and fulfill 2019 promises for that's what got him elected.
Now focus will be Covid, Economy, and China.
The 216 crore vaccine by December shows Covid is going to be kicked.
FM is working on relief package to revive the economy to Dec 2019 level and then beyond.

NaMo has to be Narendra Damodardas Modi.

Let's see. I am hopeful.

Ramana
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by vimal »

Krishna_V wrote:Do we have any source where BJP requested for virtual rallies and opposition was against it?
I posted this and other stuff in another thread read and spread the word.

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7837&p=2496927&hili ... s#p2496927
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Atmavik »

ramana wrote:The perception after Bengal is NaMo is weaker. On the contrary his power increases as more RS members from Bengal.
Second as above posts show BJP chances were slim and still needed a little more turnout to change the defeat into victory.
Third second wave Covid is abating as seen by graphs.

I expect NaMo will exert power and fulfill 2019 promises for that's what got him elected.
Now focus will be Covid, Economy, and China.
The 216 crore vaccine by December shows Covid is going to be kicked.
FM is working on relief package to revive the economy to Dec 2019 level and then beyond.

NaMo has to be Narendra Damodardas Modi.

Let's see. I am hopeful.

Ramana
Ramana Garu,

the media smells blood in the water, this second wave has unleashed the worst out of our people. even the staunchest supporters are disappointed. this 50 % to states and multi pricing of vaccine is another disaster.

i wish he behaved like the Facist he is made out to be and had ordered complete lockdown but state elections were in the way. the good news is numbers are finally coming down. He has to avoid a third wave at all costs. covid needs to be managed by the center the states are clue less and more interested in making tall claims and then blaming the center.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Manish_P »

Might have made some more impact if it had happened a few months ago..

PM-KISAN benefits reach WB farmers; 7.03 lakh farmers get 1st installment of Rs 2,000 each
For the first time on Friday, the benefits under PM Kisan Samman Nidhi Scheme reached farmers of West Bengal as about 7.03 lakh of them got Rs 2,000 each under the programme launched more than two years ago.

The scheme was not implemented till now in West Bengal as the state government and the Centre were at loggerheads over various issues, including verified data of farmers.

"Implementation has not started in West Bengal as the state refused to provide verified data of farmers. Just before the code of conduct for election came into force, the Government of West Bengal decided to come on board but the process to be completed at the level of the state was not fully complied with," Tomar had said in Parliament in March.

Soon after winning the just-concluded West Bengal assembly elections, chief minister Mamata Banerjee had shot off a letter to the central government demanding release of Rs 18,000 arrears to each eligible farmer from the state.


And she will take credit for getting the money released from the tight-fisted Gujju...

Mudi must rejine onlee
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Philip »

Perhaps its time to look ahead at the next series of elections, factors which may affect the voting esp. in UP where things are catastrophic,hundreds of bodies floating in the Ganga,etc. The spread of the China Virus esp. in rural areas across the nationis grave, since there is such a lack of accurate info. from both centre and states about the pandemic, no daily OFFICIAL advisories about CV preventive measures ,how to handle the disease if affected,severity level neccessitating home or hospitalctreatment,etc. Each TV channel has " experts" whooften give contradictory advice.The WHO and ICMR have done so many somersaults about treatment, approved medicines,etc.,that they could qualify as circus vlowns!

Handling the CV pandemic,a matter of life and deathxwiill be perhaps the major issue in the forthcoming polls, as it affects not just health,but the entire economy,jobs,etc. Lakhs of migrant labour from N.Indian statesreturning home,unemployed,will add to voter sentiment.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by SBajwa »

I am not sure if it is a true news or not but central agencies are investigating that 29 of the TMC MLAs are Rohingyas.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Rahul M »

Part-I : The nature of the defeat

Part -II : Cause of defeat : What TMC got right

WB has a population of about 9 Crores, about the same size as that of Vietnam or Egypt, spread over a massive 294 assembly seats(2nd highest after UP). Appropriating causes to a political win or loss over this vast spectrum is obviously complex and fraught with the dangers of over simplification. After all, every election, especially a state election is at the end of the day a local phenomena.
That said, there are a multitude of factors that are present across the spectrum and we would look at those as part of two broad categories:
a)what TMC got right
b)what BJP got wrong.

Again, I would be brutally honest about what I perceive to be the truth, to do otherwise would be a huge disservice to India.
What TMC got right
1. The labharthi factor
Labharthi is a term we heard frequently from Shri PP during GE2019 in the context of UP, after the elections coupta addressed a presser where he admitted the opposition didn't have a counter to the BJP's army of labharthis, people who had received benefits from one central scheme of the other. MB/PK seems to have taken that lesson to heart and not only prevented many central schemes from coming to WB, when she did allow those, it was only as a repackaged state scheme. In the gag end of their tenure TMC even came up with hot-air schemes. The entirely hollow swastha sathi scheme is an example. I think kati ji has written about it. There's also a supposed women only monthly allowance scheme that has no budgetary approval but TMC workers were busy signing up women for it. Some were even paid money.
In addition she also introduced a plethora of schemes like bicycles/cash for girl students etc that have actually created its own group of beneficiaries, especially among women. This ensured a solid women's vote for TMC that was more difficult to budge than the men's votes.

That aside, in comparison to the 3 decades of left front rule, TMC govt has actually done some work on ground. Roads & irrigation work has improved substantially, crushing poverty has reduced due to implementation of MNREGA, albeit the party has taken its cut at all levels but to a people deprived of anything for 30 years, even something means a lot. This has created a fertile base of populace willing to at least consider the TMC, that helps when we consider the rest of the factors.

2. Subservient bureaucracy

When MB took over, the state bureaucracy was infested with left-front affiliated people with a sprinkling of congress oldtimers. She has managed to tame it completely with fear and the occasional largesse. Her ideas might be faulty but those are executed to the T by the Babu's. This has ensured that the schemes actually reach the grassroot level, of course the party takes a cut, that's given.
Similarly, the police is now an extension of the party, even more so than was the case during left rule. WB cadre IPS officers are not even allowed to go for central deputation, which is completely against norms but MB doesn't care. This is her way of making sure that no one even thinks of escaping her clutches.

3. Complete media domination
Even at the height of left rule in WB, the two dominant bangla newspapers, Ananda Bazar Patrika (ABP) & Bartaman, carried what was mostly an anti-left narrative. ABP was nominally neutral with a slight anti -left lean while Bartaman was out and out anti-left. When MB came to power bangla newspapers had continued with the same model of faux neutrality but even that token criticism was unacceptable to MB, she passed a firman that none of the major newspapers would find *any* support from the WB govt, whether ads or even for circulation in public libraries. That danda and some behind the scenes quid-pro-quo later, every single major bangla newspaper, viz. ABP, Bartaman, Protidin, Ei Somoy from Times group etc now unabashedly toe the TMC party line. The only bangla newspaper that has even an inkling of being pro-bjp is the Jugasankha, which is primarily a Silchar, Assam based newspaper !
Similarly, 7-8 bangla news channels are doing incessant propaganda for TMC, even republic bangla does subtle pro-tmc propaganda. Calcutta News(CN) is the only holdout against complete TMC domination in MSM.
Even this massive media narrative disadvantage can be managed in times of broad strokes narrative that are resistant to media-spin, as we saw in 2019, post Balakot.
But at other times, this is a big drawback because every controversial/complex issue like decentralisation of loss making PSU can be spun to your detriment and the common man has little motivation or ability to go hunt for the counter narrative on the internet. Even if he does he will probably end up with a Dhruv Rathee video followed by seemingly reliable articles from wire, scroll and print, all of which make the point that the BJP is the devil incarnate. This is the nature of the problem a party faces when trying to upend a well entrenched determined party like the TMC.

4. Sab mil ke lootenge
There was an increasing perception by the 2nd term that TMC leaders were too greedy who didn't spread around the loot among the rank and file, creating strong discontent that led to the poor 2019 result. They learnt from that mistake and have actually course corrected. Getting rid of the hated sitting MLA'S helped. Anecdotally, TMC rank & file have much higher living standards than 2 years back, many are quite happy to stop their primary professions and take up working for the party full time. It is that lucrative.
Like 'cpi-m pass' qualification of yesteryears, having the TMC stamp on your CV opens up many doors, jobs for you and your relatives, loan from banks and grants from govt schemes, seats in educational institutions for your kids and so on. Being a TMC cadre is now a legitimate career option for the high school passout crowd in a job starved state. This created a loyal, even fanatical supporter base.

5. Long game on ground
The cpi-m in WB has long been accused of something called 'scientific rigging' (Google it), a form of fixing elections that was sophisticated enough to survive even EVMs and ensured their victory for 3 decades. It was only after a decade long struggle and tremendous support from the EC that TMC managed to topple that bunch of crooks.
Having done that to someone as ruthless as the cpi-m, TMC has been very careful in ensuring that no party ever does the same trick on them. To that end, not only did they shore up support among the masses (point # 1), ensured complete control over state machinery (point #2), dominated media narrative (point #3), created a loyal worker base (point #4) they used all 4 factors along with pure and simple muscle power to intimidate would be BJP workers, supporters and voters.
So what's new, you might think. That happens in every state of the country. The difference is in the sheer scale, and unceasing all pervasive nature of the intimidation in WB. The intimidation did not start 2 or 3 months before the elections, it never ended in the first place. Like a true fascist state, people accused of 'thought crimes' or worse could lose everything, from their job, property, life to loved ones. The state machinery, police, media would all be complicit in punishing such 'crimes'. People had to put their very existence on the line to even think of voting for someone else. Naturally, many who voted BJP in 2019 were afraid to do so this time. The carrot and stick of cash4votes and threats worked wonders in the countryside.
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At the end of the day, it came down to who wanted to win more badly, TMC was desperate to win the AE, much more so than in the GE, which is a sideshow for them. For the BJP it was a nothing to lose election, the desperation to win was absent, except may be in the top two. That showed in how the two parties approached the elections, while one blew hot and cold the other left no stone unturned to ensure a win.
If you look closely above, TMC actually created multiple paths to victory, even if the BJP managed to blunt one or two of the factors above, they could still eke out a victory with a lesser margin.

So, where did the BJP go wrong to end up with a 10% margin of defeat ?
We will see in next part.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Mukhi »

Very Nicely Written.

There is a 4th dimension. Its PK factor. Like him or hate him, there is an effect on election results when he is involved. He himself has said many times that he brings few % margin up , 3-5 as he claims. But in reality, its more.
BJP has used him, so it's not that they don't know how he plays his game. Still they got played well. I am a firm believer, that if PK gets involved in Gujarat AE, Gujarat too can be gone next.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Rahul M »

Thanks Mukhi ji.

I did mention PK but not as a separate factor because the strategy above is primarily down to his team. He was able to flip many seats BJP won in 2019, that deserves credit.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Jarita »

Bengal Elections - no one is talking about the 800 pound gorilla. Demography.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by chetak »

Jarita wrote:Bengal Elections - no one is talking about the 800 pound gorilla. Demography.
and now the rumours have started that a lot of the TMC candidates were rohingyas.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Rahul M »

Jarita wrote:Bengal Elections - no one is talking about the 800 pound gorilla. Demography.
What happened in 2019 then ? Gorilla was taking a nap ?
:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
chetak wrote:
Jarita wrote:Bengal Elections - no one is talking about the 800 pound gorilla. Demography.
and now the rumours have started that a lot of the TMC candidates were rohingyas.
More rumours will come, like the ones that said BJP lost 100 seats by less than 1000 votes. All such rumours are just that, floated to take the attention away from the party's underperformance.
If there are that many Rohingya candidates what does it say about the central govt that it is not doing anything about it? Either the central govt is incompetent or we are fools to believe these rumours.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Kati »

Nicely summed up, RahulM-Saar. The complete take over of the mass media by the TMC govt is not only disgusting, but also something that the earlier LF govt couldn't achieve. (I have personally convinced some close friends to subscribe Yuga Shankha though.)

Mukhi-Saar, that PK factor has been covered already by RahulM in item#1.
After the GE19 shock, PK was hired with a hug amount of money, and he sent thousands of young men and women to the deepest corners of the state to find out what went wrong, and why many people shunned the party. The feedback came back, the local level many corrupt TMC leaders were identified and they were denied tickets (which saw an exodus of many people from TMC to BJP), and BDO as well as panchayet-level officials were given the task to do the course correction. Around the end of 2019, there was a massive discontent in the state secretariat - among the babus that PK's handpicked people had been inserted in various ministry offices who superseded the functioning of the babus. Anyway, later it was toned down, and PK's involvement was shielded from the public/media glare.

RahulM-Saar, you may also want to address the candidate selection by BJP which caused some discontent in several seats. For example, Dr. Lahiri had to be shifted to Balurghat from Alipurduar after the local party machinery in the latter seat refused to cooperate with the candidate. However, he was a good candidate. But in several other seats, especially in Kolkata, some party leaders were upset with the selection of so many entertainment personalities. In this regard, see how the big mouth Sri Tathagata Roy (ex-BJP state prez, and guv to Tripura & Meghalaya) is raking up unnecessary controversy by publicly criticizing not only the lady troika (Srabanti-Tanusree-Payel), but also the central observers. I wish, he kept his criticism within the party debates maintaining the strict Sangh discipline. He hates Sri Dilip Ghosh to the bones, but such public outburst s sending a wrong signal. Roy is at cross with the state party leadership ever since he was denied the ticket for the Bhawanipore seat.

But there was some "scientific rigging" (borrowing Mumtaaz's own term). The poll officials were selected with careful screening, and they are given "training" in the name of poll preparedness. A vast majority of the poll officials who were chosen (don't know if EC had any oversight on this matter) are the ones who are about to retire, and their pension papers could be messed up conveniently. (This is a specific complaint I heard from two officials.)

Moving forward, those 18 odd BJP MPs are there - they better use their MPLAD funds judiciously at the grass-root level to go over and beyond what Mumtaaz is doing. Stand by the local people in their good days and bad days. In this regard I would recall the excellent PR campaign used to be run by the late INC (true) leader Sri Ajit Panja who used to win election after election in spite of the best efforts made the LF. He maintained a dedicated army of volunteers who used to visit literally every household once in six month - ask them about their challenges - help their sons and daughters getting admission into local colleges, arrange for private tutors, and given school supplies to the kids, and even specially ordered matchboxes given free to local rickshaw-pullers with his party logo, etc etc.... And of course, CPM hard to match it when he played the role of Sri Ramakrishna Paramahamsa on state with an excellent skill and enthralled the masses. ... But that was Sri Ajit Panja. ...

The existing BJP MPs and MLAs have their jobs cut out for the next three days if the party wants to fare well in 2024 GE.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Kati »

Was expecting this .....since Mumtaaz had been extremely subdued for the last two weeks.

Her right hand person, her man-friday Firhad ("Bobby") Hakim has been arrested by CBI.
Other TMC top leaders have been asked to show up.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Neela »

Rahul M wrote: More rumours will come, like the ones that said BJP lost 100 seats by less than 1000 votes. All such rumours are just that, floated to take the attention away from the party's underperformance.
If there are that many Rohingya candidates what does it say about the central govt that it is not doing anything about it? Either the central govt is incompetent or we are fools to believe these rumours.
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MahulR-ji ...I spent 1 hour collecting WB data for last 4 elections. Focussed only on vote share %.
All data from ECI.
Key takeaways .
-Both CPIM and COngress are spent forces.
-It was not that the BJP performance was good. It was actually fantastic. From 10% to 38% in 5 years. That is close to 300% increase vs 2016. In 10 years, they have come from nowhere (3% voteshare in 2011)
- but but but TMC was better. From 44% 2016 to 48% in 2021. That was the difference.
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On a parallel note, huge warning signs are written everywhere for Dharmiks. In WB. Also in AP.
YSRCP MP Raghu Ram Krishna Raju suffered 3rd degree torture in AP for speaking against conversion sponsored by state ( misuse of caste certificates ) . All regional parties have put conversion on high gear to break the consolidation of Hindus.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by A Deshmukh »

Neela wrote: Key takeaways .
-Both CPIM and COngress are spent forces.
-It was not that the BJP performance was good. It was actually fantastic. From 10% to 38% in 5 years. That is close to 300% increase vs 2016. In 10 years, they have come from nowhere (3% voteshare in 2011)
- but but but TMC was better. From 44% 2016 to 48% in 2021. That was the difference.
Can you add the 2014 & 2019 LS election data?
This will show that BJP vote share declined from 2019 to 2021. This was a surprise and what spoils the BJP story.
And a worry.
BJP story is still good, but the decline shows how much challenging it will be.

Additionally it is not enough to get 40-42% vote share, as in LS.
Going forward BJP needs 48%+ vote share. The mountain just became steeper.
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