2021 Five State Elections

[Yagnasri]

She is not in a good position sirji. There is a massive momentum in BJP favour now. So There is every chance of the BJP winning this one.

[Sachin]

is pinarayi vijayan stooopide or is the kerala electorate stooopide

The Chief Minister some times gets a grandoise illusions of KL being part of some Arab Sheikdom and where he is the senior side kick of the Arab Sheikh. During those days he and his very 'capable' finance minister gets lots of fancy ideas.
1. The bulk of Rs20,000-crore package is frontloading the state's FY21 spending to the next three months - i.e take budgetary allocations in advance and then tom tom that the state is ready for COVID eradication.
2. Kerala Rolls Out Elaborate Arrangements To Receive NRIs, Seeks Centre's Response. The gimmick was to show these numbers and then whine that Central Govt is not allowing flights to operate from the Sheikdoms and thus forcing Keralites to stay put in those countries. And when the NRKs started coming in finally the state government started singing a new tune; Backed by Centre’s order, CM says no going back on paid quarantine, that is the NRKs can now pay for the quarantine out of their own pockets . This was when many of them were coming back after losing their jobs.
3. Kerala will provide free Covid vaccine: Pinarayi Vijayan, was the last number. This statement was made hoping that some one else (mainly GoI) will foot the bill and GoKL will just go around telling the world that the state took all the expenses. Provide COVID-19 vaccine free of cost, CM tells PM is the latest tantrum when GoI clearly said that states can now figure out ways to buy the vaccines from the manufacturers directly. Even states like Assam and UP who don't go around blowing their trumpets about liberty, 100% literacy, progressiveness have ensured that their state has some good money in the treasury to procure medicines. Where as GoKL is perfecting the art of glorified begging even better and encouraging people to live off others expense.

[chetak]

Mamatha Gone.

Saar not so fast. Let us not forget that many a times I have been chased with pitchforks on this forum after failed attempts. I hope I won't have to lift my lungi and run for my life in this instance.

BJP will lose onlee.

Dilbu ji,

You have been right more times than wrong. we all have faith in you.

Erring abundantly on the side of caution, I would rethink the lungi bit.

when running for your life, without lungi is a better bet, than with lungi.

and on this forum, you are a langoti yaar to the majority.

more power to you.

And, in the meantime, don't forget to eat plenty of hilsa.

you need to be in top hexing condition, peaking spectacularly on the morning of the 2nd of may

[hnair]

The BJP as I see it seems to be now preparing for a long haul and their leadership cadre is now being slowly groomed. Looks like the central leadership knows the absolute uselessness of the so called state level leadership but are now just using them as chair warmers. The other 'secular' parties do not seem to have this kind of a long term vision in mind, and they perhaps are only targeting BJP for quick close quarters battle.

Yes, the state level leadership till now were low-IQ media-hounds who have zero grass roots capability but makes round around TV studios with a set of "Hindu in danger" predictable arguments only to get trounced by left's well prepared debaters when it comes to things like governance etc which attracts attention of neutral voters. That has changed, with the likes of Sandeep Vachaspati, Sreejith Panicker and Adv Suresh etc. These young folks have no issues debating the lefties to the ground on administrative issues, center vs state comparisons etc. To the point that the left youth leaders nowadays cut a very sorry figure nowadays and the likes of Shamseer, MB Rajesh (of beef fest ignominy), Raheem, Jake etc are laughed at in public. "Luttapi" is the term people use for one of these worthies right at his face. And these four are the "Youth jernails" as per CPI-M. Even congress, to give it due, has good left-bashers like Jyothikumar Chamakkala and Rahul Mankoottam nowadays.

This is a far cry from even a year or two ago, when the likes of Rahul Easwharan etc were cutting a sorry figure on TV during debates and the left stooges like Sunil P Ilayidom etc were being allowed unlimited BSery.

Regarding other points, O Rajagopal was always an unpleasant personality in private. My first (and last) door-to-door political campaign for him ended after a single meeting with him, back in early 90s. Useless guy who marketed himself successfully inside the party as the only winnable guy in BJP. Kummanam is a much more pleasant and friendly personality. But even he is a symbolic one and might not make much impact in Nemom, where my house is at. Infact the local councilor lady (who is contesting this election from Chirayinkeezh) would have been a brilliant choice, due to her development track record. With her meager budget, she did that lovely Karamana River walk project, only to see it usurped by O Rajagopal during its inauguration, with help from middle-aged leaders that still rule local BJP. But they wasted that opportunity too

The theory that Cong can be finished in this Kerala election to make it a Left vs BJP in future is strongly promoted by Cong to encourage their minority voters to vote for them. Will have to see how it goes. As we saw, 2019 elections was decisively a Cong wave. The BJP's biggest issue is its lack of tailoring of message from national level and not falling into the trap of talking about only religious issues. I always felt that PM Modi's development programs are more promoted in Kerala by TV anchors who question the Kammie-debaters about re-labeling Center's programs as Pinarayi's programs Only the advent of the recent bunch led by the Sandeeps and Sreejiths have they been bought out.

I see a lot of movement of Latin catholic votes to Left from Cong and Jacobite/partial Orthodox to NDA as mentioned in a previous post after December 2020 election to LSGs. If things snowball, I would wager the entire catholic vote plus a significant RoP vote will move to Left, leaving the Cong gutted. Will have to see how the COng manage that on the ground, since they are past masters at cracking such equations despite Left's propaganda about dominating kerala politics. The only difference is the seriousness of BJP's youth leaders unlike the timepass leaders of the past

About the "actions" against NIA, ED etc, Adv Jayashankar said it the sarcastic best (unfortunately in malayalam only):



Also his ripping apart of Sunil P Ilayidom, that ahole who was apologizing at all RoLer/RoPer venues about Hinduism during Sabarimala is epic. I had asked everyone to spread this around, because the douche still has a fan following:

[Dilbu]

Thank you Chetakji for the vote of confidence.

Hnairgolis ettaa the part which impressed me the most during Vachaspathi's campaign was the way he interacted with common voters. Even while facing hostile crowds in the so called commie dens he took the time out to patiently answer all their questions whether on CAA or farm laws. And it was not the usual politician's half a$$ed blabber to save the face either. He explained the crux of the issue properly in very simple terms and convinced them that they have been brain washed by commie propaganda so much so that the clearly hostile group of commie sypmathisers was seen clapping at the end of his explanation. He is a gem and surely the long term bet for BJP in the state.

[VinodTK]

BJP will lose onlee

Dilbu Jee, now the confidence level has gone up "Cavalry has joined the verbal battle".

[chetak]

this idiot is a gasbag.

"promised free vaccine", "free vaccines" from where, are you getting "free vaccines" from grandfather's estate where it is grown

Why did not your govt set up a vaccine plant in all these years

and what exactly are the responsibilities of the central government which it is abdicating, is it only to give you free vaccines

serum Institute prices for India are the lowest in the world, even lower than what they are charging to bangladesh

Thomas Isaac@drthomasisaac · Apr 21

Kerala had promised that vaccines will be free.

Kerala CM declares that promise will be honoured.

But that does not mean that we are going to permit the loot by Serum Institute or permit central government to get away with their abdication of responsibilities #VaccineForAll

[hnair]

now I am down with COVID

missed this, apologies. Here is wishing a speedy recovery and hope you are mostly asymptomatic

[chetak]

now I am down with COVID

missed this, apologies. Here is wishing a speedy recovery and hope you are mostly asymptomatic

me too. sorry.

get well soon, Sachin ji

[hnair]

Hnairgolis ettaa the part which impressed me the most during Vachaspathi's campaign was the way he interacted with common voters. Even while facing hostile crowds in the so called commie dens he took the time out to patiently answer all their questions whether on CAA or farm laws. And it was not the usual politician's half a$$ed blabber to save the face either. He explained the crux of the issue properly in very simple terms and convinced them that they have been brain washed by commie propaganda so much so that the clearly hostile group of commie sypmathisers was seen clapping at the end of his explanation. He is a gem and surely the long term bet for BJP in the state.

He is a fun guy in person, goes around wearing white dhoti, basic cotton shirt and a sling-bag made of cloth along with hawaii chappals. Man is as simple as they come, rice meals/tea and public transport kind of existence. In that sense, he out-jholawallahs everyone around, since nowadays the kammies of Kerala has discovered Fab-India and Hundayi i20

Which brings me to that spokes model of Fab-India in the pinarayi cabinet, the alleged finance minister of Kerala:

this idiot is a gasbag.

Thomas Isaac@drthomasisaac · Apr 21

Kerala had promised that vaccines will be free.

Kerala CM declares that promise will be honoured.

But that does not mean that we are going to permit the loot by Serum Institute or permit central government to get away with their abdication of responsibilities #VaccineForAll

This Thomas Issac guy is the equivalent of that Chav girl from Little Britain, who when asked a question, says "no but yeah but no...." and goes on to say some useless info which has got nothing to do with the question. Ultimately he makes no sense, despite pulling on a FabIndia kurtha and acting all hoity-toity

All claims of providing free vaccines (riding on the shoulders of Central quotas) got blow apart in an instant when Center said they will support only the BPI folks. His Treasury is empty and the gelf remittances are down. So now it is all about "we wont let the loot" BS

Added later: Thomas Issac a while ago:
https://twitter.com/sivamy2k/status/1384892017969405952

He claims
1) money to be paid is no issue to keralites
2) if vaccine is available, he will immediately buy it

[Kati]

Article by Disha on Mamata campaign meltdown

https://myind.net/Home/viewArticle/deco ... n-campaign

Disha-Saar, very nice article. .... Kudos to you.


On the lighter side:
Graffiti by TMC on the walls of Nimtala Smashan (crematorium) in North Kolkata - "Mamata will be back in 2021"....

[Mukesh.Kumar]

Article by Disha on Mamata campaign meltdown

https://myind.net/Home/viewArticle/deco ... n-campaign

Disha-Saar, very nice article. .... Kudos to you.


On the lighter side:
Graffiti by TMC on the walls of Nimtala Smashan (crematorium) in North Kolkata - "Mamata will be back in 2021"....

Sometimes I get there uncanny feeling that 50% of BRF is either from Calcutta or Bengali.

[arshyam]

now I am down with COVID

Take care, Sachin saar. All the best for a speedy and full recovery.

[nandakumar]

Hope you saw my earlier post on a rising star

. Missed it. Elections, then a home trip for Vishu and now I am down with COVID. But yes, I did saw the revolutionary move by Sandeep Vachaspati. This so called Punnapra-Vayalar uprising seems to be another carefully manufactured myth by the commies. And Sandeep now gave a chance for every one to discuss it in the open. A 'freedom struggle' done very well after Britain had already initiated power transfer procedures, and a 'memorial' plaque which even have names of communists who died of natural causes as late as in 1970s . And off course real stories of mainly illiterate SC/ST people who were pushed in front of the police as cannon fodder by the ever elusive upper caste comrades like VS Achuthanandan, EMS Namboodirippad etc.

The BJP as I see it seems to be now preparing for a long haul and their leadership cadre is now being slowly groomed. Looks like the central leadership knows the absolute uselessness of the so called state level leadership but are now just using them as chair warmers. The other 'secular' parties do not seem to have this kind of a long term vision in mind, and they perhaps are only targeting BJP for quick close quarters battle.

Added to that, the first-time BJP MLA, O Rajagopal has turned out to be a grade A useless prick

I always hoped that this chap had some sense up his head and would remain level headed. Or at least that he can keep his mouth shut and avoid embarassing his party. But no, just one sitting as an MLA his "secular credentials" had to be brought out to display. Seems to be another trojan horse who may have actually won due to support from the commies. O. Rajagopal is soon becoming the Yeshwant Sinha of Kerala.

A theory which I am now hearing very very often in KL is that; BJP is planning to finish of INC first and foremost. Even if that means allowing commies to rule the state one more time, but that is like giving a long rope to hang. If INC goes down a lot of secular 2nd rung leaders will move towards BJP. The commies any way are now purely focusing on Islamic vote blocks, so they may not be bothered much. And it would be in another 10 years time that the elections would take a very religious identity based one; BJP & ex-INC folks v/s commies+Islamic organizations.

They send their ED, CBI, NIA, etc combo package and give him a no choice offer. The CM or party leader of that non BJP state sometimes tries to protect them but most of the times they are left on their own against the central agencies.

This scheme if true was not very successful in Kerala. It also depends on the wherewithal of the other party as well. In KL for example, CPI(M) is not like INC and they are also in a "do or die" situation with lot of external parties willing to help them. There are lots of vested interests who needs CPI(M) to be running the show in Kerala, and secondly the state machinery also has found ways to hit back at the CBI,ED,NIA combo. KL may be the only state where state police filed an FIR against Enforcement Directorate (though the High Court threw out the FIR).

Sachin
Very sorry to hear that you are down with Covid. My prayers for a speedy recovery. Please consider trying Ayurveda treatment in addition to whatever you might be taking. This time last year when there was no vaccines and no clear idea of the treatment protocol a few that I personally knew underwent Ayurveda therapy in Chennai under a physician with linkages to Arya Vaidyasala, Kottakkal. They recovered. The doctor was bitter that she couldn't do much to help as the Government simply refused to consider Ayurveda in the scheme of things back then.

[shravanp]

Article by Disha on Mamata campaign meltdown

https://myind.net/Home/viewArticle/deco ... n-campaign

Great article by Disha saar. Especially the paragraph

Indians do not want the feudalist mai-baap scraps. Indians have tasted success. This is the barely adult generation who take on the formidable Aussies to their own ‘Gabbatoir’ on their own turf. This is the generation that goes to Pakistan, shoots down their F-16, demands chai, and waltz back as if that is a child's play. This is the generation that has seen through the chicanery of nepo kids of bollywood and failed their movies. See the failure of the movie Saadak and the success of Uri. And this generation currently sees no leader baring Modi who can tie their aspirations together. This generation wants PariBorton.

[SRajesh]

The media coverage of the second wave especially the O2 shortage dont make good optics
PeePeeC and other media as well are keeping up the pressure.
How many seats in the remaining phases in WB and how it may impact on the final outcome??

[SRajesh]

The states are trying to pin the blame again on the centre
And two of the loud mouths in terms of handling COVID have themselves turned + (Snake-oil and Shampoo boy an of course 6pack DESI Rambho/Rancho)

[Pratyush]

Sachin, get well soon.

[Dilbu]

BJP will lose onlee.

[chetak]

shashi thoo roor has been reduced to this, just like his boss, tweeting lies and creating chaos


Why has Shashi Tharoor taken upon himself to pronounce people dead? Isn’t it something best left to treating doctors and the family

Ms Mahajan remains hale and hearty

[Kati]

Disha-Saar, very nice article. .... Kudos to you.


On the lighter side:
Graffiti by TMC on the walls of Nimtala Smashan (crematorium) in North Kolkata - "Mamata will be back in 2021"....

Sometimes I get there uncanny feeling that 50% of BRF is either from Calcutta or Bengali.

Why only 50%? In this momentous election of WB, where BJP is knocking at the door of victory which can transform the entire Bharat's political landscape, all BRFites are Bongs today....

[Kati]

I-depth analyses by almost all the local political commentators indicate that the Phase-6 vote in WB's 43 seats has been the most free and fair election. This phase covered some very sensitive seats which witnessed a peaceful passage of electioneering.

Two top Bengali dailies which have been heavily bribed by Mumtaaz Banoo are trying to portray alarmist picture of Covid, and creating a hysteria by linking Covid with election, and indirectly running a psy-op on the voters to refrain from voting. One commentator, Sri Biswanath Chakraborty, has pointed out that the Covid transmission rates in non-election states (Punjab, Maharashtra, UP, NCR, etc) are way higher than in WB. He even pointed out that this fear mongering is a clear-cut agenda-driven ploy to help TMC. Another commentator, Sri Shafiqul Islam of Arambagh TV has given the following projection for the four districts in this Phase-6:
Uttar Dinajpur (Total seats = 9): BJP: 7-9 (TMC: 1-2)
Nadia (Total seats = 9): BJP: 4-5 (TMC: 4-5)
North 24 Parganas (Total seats = 17): BJP: 13-15 (TMC: 2-3) (Others: 0-1)
Purba Bardhaman (Total seats = 8 ): BJP: 4-5 (TMC: 4-5)

Sri Shafiqul Islam's feeling is that TMC will do unexpectedly better in Phase-8 in Murshidabad district which has about 80% Muslim population. The reason is - most of the INC vote will transfer to TMC which has been successful in creating fear among the Muslims about CAA and NRC. TMC is also using the death of 4 of its Muslim supporters in Shitalkuchi (Cooch Bihar district) to create further fear in Murshidabad. However, Murshidabad has 22 seats, and according to him this won't make any difference in BJP's ultimate win in WB.

Let's see how things pan out on May 2nd.

[chetak]

here is the new corona toolkit curated by the wokes.

this time it is @ArvindKejriwal . Swati is part of AAP Toolkit

sab ke sab suar

[Rahul M]

Disha-Saar, very nice article. .... Kudos to you.


On the lighter side:
Graffiti by TMC on the walls of Nimtala Smashan (crematorium) in North Kolkata - "Mamata will be back in 2021"....

Sometimes I get there uncanny feeling that 50% of BRF is either from Calcutta or Bengali.

I can confirm that this is true.

[Rahul M]

Reporting for duty as requested by bredatorji.

Dhanyawad.

[SRajesh]

Sometimes I get there uncanny feeling that 50% of BRF is either from Calcutta or Bengali.

I can confirm that this is true.

Amen to that especially when are sweets to be compared/cooked/and of course to be par-taken I am 110% Bong

[SRajesh]

BJP will lose onlee.

Sirji
Aaap Ki 'Rudali' sunane ke bhahoot kwasih the
Sukriya aap vapis shuru ho gaye

[rsingh]

Sometimes I get there uncanny feeling that 50% of BRF is either from Calcutta or Bengali.

I can confirm that this is true.

Few of us have strategic relationship with Bongs.......isssh.

[ramana]

Kati, Thanks for the Phase 6 analysis. What does satta market say also?

[Kati]

^^^^
In Phase-6 voting, Satta Bazar is predicting (out of 43 seats)
BJP = 27
TMC = 13
Others (INC+LF+ISF) = 2

However, Satta bazar is giving more seats to BJP in North 24 Parganas and less in North Dinajpur and Purba Bardhaman compared to the analysis made by Sri Shafiqul Islam of Arambagh TV, but overall pattern is still the same, i.e., BJP:TMC = 2:1 (approx).

My personal gut feeling (with some nervousness ) is BJP ~ 175 and TMC~ 100, since many seats are too close to call, and the margin will be razor thin.

[OmkarC]

How reliable is Sanjay Dixit's analysis ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NZakdR3zqgk



The analyst on his show is predicting 21-22 for BJP in Phase 6.

[KL Dubey]

FWIW, the Mumbai "satta bazaar" also bets on AIADMK pulling through in TN.

[KL Dubey]

How reliable is Sanjay Dixit's analysis ?

The analyst on his show is predicting 21-22 for BJP in Phase 6.

Both Bihani and Dixit's other guy on the ground (Pundir) are giving 21 as "baseline" for BJP in Phayze 6. There are many tossups.

Again, Dr. BB is the most reliable. It's a wave election in WB. You don't need these analysts to tell you that BJP is going to form WB goremint. The tossups (that will determine the extent of majority) are the only points of interest.

[Kati]

How reliable is Sanjay Dixit's analysis ?

The analyst on his show is predicting 21-22 for BJP in Phase 6.

Both Bihani and Dixit's other guy on the ground (Pundir) are giving 21 as "baseline" for BJP in Phayze 6. There are many tossups.

Again, Dr. BB is the most reliable. It's a wave election in WB. You don't need these analysts to tell you that BJP is going to form WB goremint. The tossups (that will determine the extent of majority) are the only points of interest.

^^^^^^^
But thy are starting on a wrong foot - BJP-TMC 19-24 seats in 2019GE. That's not correct. It was 18-22 split, and the remaining 2 seats went to INC.

[ramana]

^^^^
In Phase-6 voting, Satta Bazar is predicting (out of 43 seats)
BJP = 27
TMC = 13
Others (INC+LF+ISF) = 2

However, Satta bazaar is giving more seats to BJP in North 24 Parganas and less in North Dinajpur and Purba Bardhaman compared to the analysis made by Sri Shafiqul Islam of Arambagh TV, but the overall pattern is still the same, i.e., BJP: TMC = 2:1 (approx).

My personal gut feeling (with some nervousness ) is BJP ~ 175 and TMC~ 100, since many seats are too close to call, and the margin will be razor-thin.

Thanks. Numbers match other reports.

And don't be nervous. BJP will form govt with a full majority.

[ramana]

How reliable is Sanjay Dixit's analysis ?

The analyst on his show is predicting 21-22 for BJP in Phase 6.

Both Bihani and Dixit's other guy on the ground (Pundir) are giving 21 as "baseline" for BJP in Phayze 6. There are many tossups.

Again, Dr. BB is the most reliable. It's a wave election in WB. You don't need these analysts to tell you that BJP is going to form WB goremint. The tossups (that will determine the extent of majority) are the only points of interest.

Yes, it's like a hockey stick pattern.

[Kati]

^^^^^

Very much correct Vishnu Bihani-ji in assessing Kolkata Port Trust and Ballygunj ACs.

In Ballygunj LF's candidate is Dr. Fuad Halim. He is the younger son of Advocate Hashim Abdul Halim - a very well-respected person in Bengal politics, and he was the speaker of the assembly during the LF tenure. Dr. Fuad Halim - born with a silver spoon in his mouth - is a well-respected doctor, and runs his clinics+ nursing homes from where he provides affordable care to poor people. (This has become the only sales pitch of the Left parties in Bengal now. Devoid of any economic agenda, and being thoroughly morally bankrupt, leftists are now trying to capture votes based on "clean image" of their fielded candidates. Anyway, Fuad graduated from Nil Ratan Sarkar Medical College (NRSMC), and did short stints in the UK. He is married to Sharmin of Hyderabad,- daughter of (Retd.) Lt. General Zia Uddin Shah - brother of actor Nasiruddin Shah. ... Fuad is going to get a good amount of sympathy vote of 50+ age group's "Bengali bhadralok" vote, but won't cut much. It may help BJP to some extent, as the locality is the pocket-borough of the old hand Subrata Mukherjee who did a lot of work when he was the city mayor.

On the other hand, Firhad ("Bobby") Hakim has port area (a mini TSP) under his belt. He is Mumtaaz Banoo's 'Man Friday'. He also comes from a left family, as his father Abdul Hakim was an honest Left politician, but died in a mysterious way. Even though it was touted as a suicide, it was widely known as a party insider revenge killing as he refused to play dirty politics. That prompted Firhad Hakim to join TMC. His three daughters - Priyadarshini, Shabba and Afsha - come into limelight often. Shaba is a doctor, and supported doctors' strike two years ago when peacefools roughed up doctors at NRSMC. It caused a tremendous loss of face for TMC as well as Mumtaaz Banoo. Youngest daughter Afsha is a high profile lawyer. The most colorful is the oldest - Priyadarshini - a management consultant. There was a huge controversy when Priyadarshini filed a case against her husband Yasir Haider for domestic violence. (See more: https://www.organiser.org/Encyc/2020/1/ ... ltery.html ) Yasir was very close to the "nephew" and was a big shot in Yuva TMC, but for the last year and half Yasir drifted apart from Abhishek Banerjee. Things came to a head about two months ago when he was denied a party ticket in fight this election, and this prompted him to cut off all his ties with TMC. He twitted his decision and vented his anger very publicly.

[Dilbu]

BJP will lose onlee.

[Prem Kumar]

FWIW, the Mumbai "satta bazaar" also bets on AIADMK pulling through in TN.

Satta bazaar is the only hope for TN.

AIADMK + BJP will lose onlee

[KL Dubey]

Bliss to focus anti jinxes on WB Phayze 7 and 8 only....rest of election rijalts are already in the EVMs.