2021 Five State Elections

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Philip
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Philip »

I was warned by a v.close friend,ex-BJP MP ,that violence was afeared whatever the outcome of the WB polls,as Mamta was alleged to be v.vindictive.
But here I ask a Q,what was the EC doing all this time when it was in charge? A massive contingent of central forces was deployed in the state to oversee the elections and prevent violence. Surely the leaders and key individuals of the two opposing parties reqd. protection post-poll given the vicious campaign? Curfews could've been imposed at sensitive seats and districts with shoot-at-sight orders for violators? Both sides suffered deaths,the BJP more. In such a supercharged atmosphere any investigative entity from the centre will be viewed as partisan by the TMC and vice-versa by the BJP if the state investigators are in charge. The SC should therefore in the interests of all, swiftly constitute a team to inquire into the post-poll violence, employ any central investigation agency it needs and take charge as it has done in many other instances. Find the guilty and prosecute them swiftly as an example to the rest of the country.
Maria
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Maria »

Philip wrote:I was warned by a v.close friend,ex-BJP MP ,that violence was afeared whatever the outcome of the WB polls,as Mamta was alleged to be v.vindictive.
But here I ask a Q,what was the EC doing all this time when it was in charge? A massive contingent of central forces was deployed in the state to oversee the elections and prevent violence. Surely the leaders and key individuals of the two opposing parties reqd. protection post-poll given the vicious campaign? Curfews could've been imposed at sensitive seats and districts with shoot-at-sight orders for violators? Both sides suffered deaths,the BJP more. In such a supercharged atmosphere any investigative entity from the centre will be viewed as partisan by the TMC and vice-versa by the BJP if the state investigators are in charge. The SC should therefore in the interests of all, swiftly constitute a team to inquire into the post-poll violence, employ any central investigation agency it needs and take charge as it has done in many other instances. Find the guilty and prosecute them swiftly as an example to the rest of the country.
However, the honourable SC/Milords may themselves derail justice using their serpentine lenses for looking at state of affairs in India.

In view of the anarchy that reigns over in the interiors of Bengal (or for that matter any state in the Union of India), can't the President on the advise of the PM declare President's rule directly?
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Neela »

VIEWER DISCRETION ADVISED. DO NOT CLICK IF YOU CANNOT HANDLE GORE
*Mortal remains* of BJP Karyakarta, *Shri. Joy Prakash Yadav* who was bombed by *TMC Goons* at *Bhatpara.*
@narendramodi
It is likely the picture will be taken down by twitter
https://twitter.com/KhanSaumitra/status ... 7937868805
darshhan
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by darshhan »

Neela wrote:VIEWER DISCRETION ADVISED. DO NOT CLICK IF YOU CANNOT HANDLE GORE
*Mortal remains* of BJP Karyakarta, *Shri. Joy Prakash Yadav* who was bombed by *TMC Goons* at *Bhatpara.*
@narendramodi
It is likely the picture will be taken down by twitter
https://twitter.com/KhanSaumitra/status ... 7937868805
Om Shanti.

Struggled and fought for a noble cause but totally worthless and Hopeless leaders.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Paul »

How was this missed?

https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... ampaign=IE
. The Indian Express
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HomeIndia
Learn from defeat too: PM Modi to BJP leaders
On Kerala, asks party leaders to shed alliance rigidity; on Bengal, says learn from TMC’s regrouping.
Written by Liz Mathew | New Delhi |
Updated: June 7, 2021 5:12:33 am

Before meeting Prime Minister Modi, BJP leaders held a day-long meeting at party chief J P Nadda’s residence in New Delhi on Sunday to discuss future plans. (Source: Twitter/@BJP4India)
* Be it victory or defeat, the BJP should assess its performance in detail so that it can prepare for future polls.

* In West Bengal, the party should see how TMC worked its way back to a big victory in the recent Assembly polls after its poor performance in 2019 Lok Sabha polls, when BJP had won 18 of 42 seats in the state.

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* The party needs accounts in every regional languages to use social media more effectively.

These are some of the suggestions Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave to BJP general secretaries in Sunday’s meeting, it is learnt.

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Modi was addressing party general secretaries after a two-day stock-taking and review meet of BJP’s performance in the Assembly elections, and its activities under the ‘Seva hi sanghatan’ programme during the Covid-19 pandemic.

In the nearly five-hour meeting at his official residence, Modi gave “several suggestions” as the party gears up for Assembly polls in five states early next year, sources said.

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In the just-concluded elections, the BJP-led NDA won in Assam, became the main opposition with 77 seats in West Bengal, is all set to form a coalition government in Puducherry, won four seats in Tamil Nadu, even though it drew a naught in Kerala.

Speaking on Kerala, Modi is learnt to have advised party leaders to shed “rigidity” in forming alliances and bringing non-Hindu communities to BJP’s support base. He said BJP should try and win over the Christian community in the state, as it “does not seem to be having any major issues in joining hands with BJP”, it is learnt.

The PM, sources said, suggested that the party should try and take advantage of the “goodwill and influence” the Christian community has in Kerala’s political and social scene.
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As for West Bengal, Modi is learnt to have asked party leaders to study how the Trinamool Congress, which had faced a setback in 2019 Lok Sabha elections, worked for its landslide victory in these Assembly polls.

Training for third wave of Covid

Before meeting Modi, the BJP leaders held a day-long discussion on the party’s future plans.

Having faced flak for the absence of its leaders on field during the peak of the second wave of coronavirus, BJP is preparing for an anticipated third wave with plans to train 1 lakh health volunteers across the country to operate medical devices and perform other essential medical services.

The party took this decision at the meeting of general secretaries and chiefs of different morchas,, chaired by BJP president J P Nadda. In the meeting, also attended by BJP leaders in charge of different election-bound states, there was a discussion on post-poll violence in West Bengal as well, it was informed.

The meeting, held at Nadda’s residence, was attended by all eight BJP general secretaries, party’s general secretary (organisation) B L Santhosh and presidents of its youth, women, farmers’, OBC, SC, ST and minority wings.

After the meeting, Nadda, Santhosh and the party general secretaries went to meet the Prime Minister.

“A report was presented to the party chief on relief work carried out by the party during the pandemic,” BJP general secretary Bhupender Yadav told the media. “It was decided that the party will train 1 lakh health volunteers, including giving them technical knowledge to operate ventilators and other essential medical devices.”

Leaders of the affiliated morchas have been asked to focus on promoting the government’s initiatives for their respective sections.

For instance, Yadav said, the Scheduled Tribes wing of the party was asked to focus on promoting the Centre’s Van Dhan Yojana for tribals. Similarly, the kisan morcha will facilitate training of farmers at the farmers’ producers organisations (FPOs) across the country, while the women’s wing will promote “Poshan Abhiyan”, which aims to achieve a malnutrition-free India, among women, he said.

While BJP general secretary Kailash Vijayvargiya had briefed the leaders on Saturday about the party’s performance in West Bengal, on Sunday it was assessed that the BJP has strengthened its position in the state after the Assembly polls in April-May, having raised its seat tally to 77 and reducing both the Left and Congress to nil.



On post-poll violence in West Bengal, Yadav said reports of political violence have been coming from the state regularly; he underlined that the party is firmly standing with the people of Bengal.

BJP general secretary Arun Singh said under its “Sewa hi sangathan” campaign, the party marked the seventh anniversary of the NDA government under Modi. As part of the campaign, the party carried out relief work in more than 1.71 lakh villages and around 60,000 urban centres, while over 4 lakh elderly and needy people were provided medicines, he said.

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Similarly, 1.26 crore face masks, 31 lakh food packets and 19 lakh ration kits were distributed among people, Singh added.

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venkat_kv
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by venkat_kv »

Tanaji wrote:How come the tactic of filling PILs in Supreme Court against violence does not work in Bengal case? Does the court not accept the PILs? Or isn’t there anyone savvy enough to try?
Tanaji,
A PIL was filed by Indic group of J Sai Deepak (of the sabarimala fame for those who don't know/remember) on May 5-6 time frame itself, but the supreme court didn't take it up citing rising corona cases in the country and said it had higher priority? :shock:
Now that the Bengal High court already has accepted the case on post poll violence, I am guessing Supreme will try to wash its hands off saying let it be first dealt by the high court and if unsatisfied then can be referred back to Supreme.
Rahul M
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Rahul M »

Part-I : The nature of the defeat
Part-II : Cause of defeat, what TMC got right
Part - III : Cause of defeat - what BJP got wrong

Part - III : Cause of defeat - what BJP got wrong


NOTE : I delayed this post by a couple of weeks in order to incorporate some insider inputs that I was expecting. Have interacted with a wide spectrum of people over the past weeks to gain insights from BJP insiders to BYJM/ABVP activists, including some outside WB.

This is likely going to be the most controversial part of this analysis. :P
As I have mentioned earlier, this was an election with a clear path to victory for the BJP - hold on to the ~121 seats won in 2019 elections and flip about 30 odd from the remaining 170 seats for a comfortable majority. In stead, BJP lost about 36% of the seats it had won 2 years back !
Do note that this is a severe reversal of trends in WB political history, for the elections in the new millenia the trend of LS has always strengthened in the next VS, the weakest trend is the LS1999-VS2001 pair at the turn of the century when the LF just about maintained its 2/3 majority, inspite of the TMC & INC coming together in 2001. However, there it can be argued that there's not much space left for the left front for an upwards trend from 2/3 majority; the BJP does not have this excuse & has unfortunately bucked this trend for the first time in 20 years.

Question is why ? What are the factors that BJP got wrong in this election ?

1. Strategic misstep from the past

This is not much well known outside WB BJP circles but BJP national leadership long continued to nurture hope that TMC will join NDA & hence treated the party with kid-gloves. Modi campaigned in 2014 with the comment 'WB will have do haat mein laddoo, centre mein Modi or State mein Didi'. TMC however quickly decided that BJP was the main foe & even reached out to left & cong to stop BJP. Post GE2014, as BJP vote share shot up to 17%, the irrelevance of the left, coupled with the scam infested TMC & and the rising popularity of the PM meant that the BJP had already become the de-facto opposition in WB. Many people were already fed up with TMC & few were ready to give another chance to the left so soon. BJP was increasingly being seen as the only credible opposition to the ruling party and by 2015 the pressure of the scams & increasing mindspace occupation by the PM meant that BJP had definitely left cong & left behind and well on its way to stake its claim as the main opposition in 2016 elections.
That however was not to be, as 2016 elections approached BJP's aggression progressively nosedived and with it its electoral prospects, ending VS2016 with a meagre 3 seats & 10% votes. The inside story is that BJP gave walkover to the TMC in return for MB's support in Rajya Sabha to pass bills. Of course, MB being MB reneged on her promises & extracted more pounds of flesh at every opportunity. Mostly, her scam tainted leaders had to be 'let off' in return for her support in RS (including strategic abstentations). Going down this path meant BJP's credibility as a strong anti-corruption party took a hard beating. Was it worth enough to delay BJP's rise in WB by 5 years, while allowing a ROP pasand dispensation to rule the roost in a vital border state ?
Because it could well have reached where it is today back in 2016 itself, providing a much stronger base from where to launch the 2021 campaign ! While this is not directly linked to the 2021 campaign, it does form part of a pattern of miscalculations from BJP regarding WB, as we shall see.

2. Complete mismanagement by the central leadership

There is no doubt the top two leaders of the party left no stone unturned to win WB, but the leaders they had chosen to lead the state campaign left a lot to be desired.
The central leadership led by WB election-in-charge Shri Kailash Vijayvargia ushered in a plethora of self-destructive policies that led to a suboptimal result by the BJP. The leadership was out of touch with local sensibilities, suffered from general tone-deafness, alienated core voters, had no ability to judge the talent of the leaders or the candidates handpicked by them and hobbled the very leaders who could have delivered WB for them. I will flesh out the policy mistakes in the following points but given the lower stature of the local leadership the buck stops at KV and co.

2. Giving priority to new TMC entrants over BJP/RSS old timers

A party can expand in a new region either organically or via acquisitions. If rapid expansion is needed there are few alternatives to acquisitions. However care needs to be taken that the new entrants are compatible with existing party ideology, culture and the loyal cadres who have stuck with the party for long do not feel alienated. This was BJP's dilemna and instead of taking care in picking and choosing it went for en masse recuitment of TMC turncoats sans any quality check. This resulted in induction of worthies like Monirul Islam and Babu Master (accused in murder of BJP worker). BJP even arranged security for the later !
What do you think this did to the psyche of the party cadres who had put their life on the line for the party over the years ? Would they be energised by the leadership of a babu master and bunch of similar TMC turncoats who are well known as thieves ?
BJP failed to understand that many of these leaders were coming over precisely because TMC/PK/IPAC found them unelectable, not only were they corrupt, they were corrupt leaders without a strong voter base. Their moving over to BJP was TMC's gain and BJP's loss. Not only were these leaders not invested in a BJP win, some of them even worked for TMC from the inside and have since started moving back.
They were only interested in the money coming in from central BJP and consequently did not bother to give accurate feedback to the central leadership.
A major subplot of this phenomena was how DIlip GHosh was treated. Dilip Ghosh and his right hand man Subrata Chatterjee are both old RSS hands who had helped deliver 2019. But the duo objected to the unrestricted entry and empowerment of exTMC people in the BJP which led to regular complaints to the central leadership of KV & co. Egged on by another TMC turncoat Mukul Roy, KV & co sacked Subrata Chatterjee as Secretary(Organisation) of WB BJP last year in October in order to teach Dilip Ghosh a lesson.
The signs were clear, Dilip Ghosh was to continue as a figurehead state President while Mukul Roy was the real power in WB BJP. This was even worse than sacking Ghosh outright, with 6 months to go for elections, they ended up with a lameduck president who was unable or unwilling to push the party machinery for the final dash. To most seasoned watchers, it was clear that this was not Dilip Ghosh at his 100%.
Any political party needs street fighters to win WB, I have been saying this for a decade now on BRF. Fortunately, BJP has managed to discover a few of them, the combative Dilip Ghosh being one of them. He has his share of problems but his ability to deliver is not in question, cfe 2019 results. His sidelining & the removal of the man who built WB BJP organisation 6 months before the election greatly hampered BJP's chances.
The importance given to Mukul Roy is another subject of abiding mystery to WB politics watchers. Let me be very clear, Mukul Roy is no HBS. He is a backroom operator with no mass base unlike HBS, his culpability in sarada etc scam was no less than any other TMC leader, he was never a popular leader and is far more hyped up than his ability suggests. State BJP supporters have always been embarrassed by him. It is barely tolerable to have him in the party but to have him lead ? It significantly dilutes the corruption charge against TMC. KV & co however started believing that Mukul Roy is some genius ala Himanta Biswa Sarma who will single handedly deliver WB to them. And Mukul Roy's single point policy was simply get as many TMC leaders as possible, without bothering about their ground support or credentials.

3. Deliberate disregard for local talent

I remember speaking to a number of friends post 2019 elections(and possibly on BRF as well) that if the BJP wanted to win 2021 they needed to start a frantic talent hunt program at lower levels. Two years might not sound like much to create seasoned leaders or a CM candidate but it is more than enough to identify the student & youth leaders who can gather new recruits, facilitate lower level campaigning, lead the party apparatus on ground etc. This, as per insiders, was not done. KV & co does not trust 'upper caste bhadraloks', which as per them meant all educated bengalis (more on that later) and preferred resident hindi speaking workers. Even this might not have been a problem since many of the WB hindi speakers are here for multiple generations, speak good bangla (most do it better than Dilip Ghosh) and have a finger on the local pulse. However, even from this group only those made it through who shared the central leaderships' mistrust of bengalis. The rest of the numbers were made up by out of state BJP workers who brought the only tool they knew, caste politics. The BJP was thus left with karyakartas who were either yes men or completely cut off from the society, who were thus unwilling/unable to garner support for the candidates or galvanise supporters.
As a result BJP's ground game was mostly non existent, with the candidate often left to fend for himself. In my constituency the BJP candidate (professional with clean image but little ground connect) appeared the grand total of one time, on a lone auto rickshaw that sped through the locality with a loudspeaker blaring 'vote for BJP candidate Shri .....' once and that was it. Blink and you will miss it. In contrast the TMC candidate came twice with a huge procession of vehicles & supporters. And this is a ward that the BJP has consistently carried.
There were similar problems with their polling agents who were novices with no knowledge of election procedures and how to safeguard the interest of the candidates. Unlike TMC their agents had recieved no training and had no motivation to ensure a fair election. Many a times these were young guys going through the motions for money. Again points to weak clueless leadership.

4. Poor candidate selection

Much has been written on this so I will be short. Pathetic would probably be the correct word to describe BJP candidate selection. Candidates were announced who themselves were not even part of BJP (utterly embarrassing the state unit), many utterly corrupt ex TMC people were given tickets, a bunch of tollywood c grade actors were given tickets for god knows what (there are nasty rumours) who were busy partying with TMC minister madan mitra on a river cruise as he was singing a song abusing BJP, all this literally days before the election. SinghaBahini's Devdutta Maji was given ticket from Chowrangee, a place where he has no base.
Bad candidate selection & consequent revolts by many local units meant quite a few units refused to support corrupt/helicopter candidates, otherwise BJP's tally won't have gone below 100 in the worst case.

5. Adopting leftist ideology & hostility towards local culture

Yes, you read this correctly. Please read on.
WB has about 25-30% muslim population, so the BJP needs unseen levels of H consolidation to pull it through. That would be quite obvious to anyone with a modicum of common sense. Right ?
Not apparently so obvious to the BJP, because it adopted a threefold election plank, abusing bengali(hindu) culture, trying extremely hard to introduce caste faultlines & going all out to get muslim votes. :roll: (Sounds crazy right ?)
BJP seems to have internalised the JNU leftist narrative that bengali culture is essentially anti hindu and decided that the existing bengali identity needs to be destroyed in order for bengal to join the 'mainstream'. This is likely due to the 'guidance' provided by non resident bengalis like swapan dasgupta, sanjeev sanyal etc, who are themselves completely cut off from their roots and some were leftist not too long back. These people are a variant of lutyens elite and share their self hating nature, with the Indian hate replaced by Bengali hate. These people, limited in their personal experience to other NRB's who are mirror images of themselves, decided in all their wisdom that the term bhadralok in bengal society is equivalent to 'elite & anglicised'. :lol:
This is like a couple of sharma ji ka betas living in SoBo deciding that all sharmas are anglicised & anti-hindu, because their immediate friends & family are like that. (no offence intended to any Sharma ji's anywhere)
In BJP's imagination bhadralok is the symbol of bengali leftist ideology that needs to be villified & destroyed. So who are the bhadralok ? Armed with decades of experience in caste politics & ably supported by the JNU caste cabal, the answer seemed obvious to them. The upper castes of course, right ? :-?
Thus out came the BJP campaign strategy, a strategy based on abusing bengali upper castes in rural bengal in the best traditions of DMK/RJD/SP/BSP, ignore or demean bengali culture/icons throughout the campaign, try and manufacture the narrative that there is tremendous caste discrimination in WB and the BJP's true fight is against that.
This was a classic case of tilting at windmills that ever was. It didn't matter to them that this theory, so 'obvious' to their experts from UP, MP & Maharashtra had no relation to ground reality and was not getting any traction on ground. The term bhadralok(bhadramahila for women) in bengali culture is a very wide term used to refer to *anyone* who is educated & maintains a certain level of politeness & decorum. The term originates from the sanskrit term 'Bhadra' ('Bhadre' for women) which is cognate with 'arya' or gentleman in english. That's it !
It is not restricted to any caste, certainly doesn't mean upper class (term for which is bodolok == bade log in hindi) and is not even restricted to bengalis. Any gujarati, tamil etc person satisfying the twin criteria of education & polite conduct would be referred to as a gujarati bhadralok, tamil bhadralok etc.
When the BJP, especially the IT cell drones led by clueless idiots like Amit Malviya was attacking the bhadralok identity, it was attacking every single educated bengali, which is to say it was attacking the bengali identity itself. The same identity that gave rise to hindutva icons like Swami Vivekananda, Bankim, Aurobindo and so on. How do you think this played to the average bengali BJP supporter ? All dissenting voices within the BJP were ignored & silenced. Consequently, many long term supporters & members of the bengal BJP got frustrated and stopped amplifying IT cell's misguided campaigns on caste & anti-bengali propaganda creating a complete vacuum in social media against TMC/IPAC propaganda.
Most speeches & pressers were in hindi only, candidate lists were only in hindi, TV ads spoke a odd version of bangla that was clearly a word for word (google?) translation of a hindi slogan that made no sense to their intended targets, let alone capture their hearts. This could have been easily remedied with a bengali speaking person doing QC before the ads went out but hey, bengalis were not to be trusted unless they were SC/ST and not even then if they were educated. BJP campaign trucks only blared JSR, the witty retorts and slogans aam BJP supporters created on their own were conspicuously absent in BJP official campaigns, presumably because they were in Bangla. BJP leaders pointedly ignored Maa Durga in favour of Sri Rama, ironical because in Bengal the two are intricately connected, (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akaal_bodhan) and this was a perfect cultural bridgehead to win over Bengal. But of course, to do that the BJP needed a local 'sherpa' to guide them through the local variations of culture & religion and they didn't have one. Or at least no one they listened to. Beyond a certain point it became difficult for even the most loyal of supporters to ignore the obvious pattern.
It is understandable that in a varied nation like ours there would be some parochial hatred on the basis of culture, language etc even in the mainstream society. But to see that kind of bias driving the electoral campaign of a national party, that too one promising hindutva & to look after the interests of all hindus; it was painful & sobering for many, to say the least. It was almost like the BJP wanting Bengal but not the Bengalis.
While Dr Praveen Patil was waxing lyrical about the USHV, BJP in WB was trying to introduce anti-UC caste schism in WB polity in the name of 'subaltern hindutva', where it absolutely does not exist. For a so called hindutva party to adopt the language of 'smash the brahmanical patriarchy' was beyond the pale. A BJP supporter friend has derisively started calling it the saffron-left. As someone wrote on twitter, BJP trying caste politics in WB is akin to McDonald's selling beef burgers in India and wondering why no one's buying. :wink: No wonder BJP failed. This strategy only reinforced the idea that BJP was an outsider out to destroy bengali hindu society by dividing it along caste.
Adopting woke-ism & leftism discourse is a disease that has reached BJP significantly in the past few years and I suspect not a few of the new gen advisors of the BJP are in the Sudheendra Kulkarni mode and do not have India's or the party's best interests in their heart. The party needs to take a very close look at who it is listening to because by current trajectory they are quickly becoming a congress minus the gandhi family.

6. Backfiring govt policy
Fuel price increase, LPG price increase, no movement on CAA, plight of hindu bengalis in Assam(this is a genuine issue and BJP spent no efforts to address this) were all issues arising out of Govt. policy that were latched on by IPAC/TMC and successfully used for fear mongering. It might not have worked in a better environment but a moribund WB BJP disheartened by the approach adopted by the leadership (reason mentioned above) failed to counter such simplistic propaganda on ground or on SM. The lack of a major newspaper supporting the BJP POV hurt it big time. Of course, as I have mentioned before, BJP's big hope in TV news, republic bangla itself was subtly leaning towards TMC.
The biggest policy mistakes were however a) not taking the scam investigations to their conclusions, as discussed in point 1 above
and b) not imposing president's rule. As I mentioned in my previous post, TMC's win in 2011 was an extreme example of the success you can achieve against an embedded party-society using primarily democratic means. That is practically impossible sans a major mistake by the ruling party since they are the best at understanding how to guard against a takeover bid on their own party-society model. Many long term observers expected BJP to acknowledge this reality and impose prez rule in order to ensure a level playing field. And if BJP was fearing a backlash from the people of Bengal they couldn't be more wrong because the people of bengal respect power and realpolitik and that no-holds barred tenacity is one of MB's USP.

7. Inconsistent campaign platform

Successful campaign platforms are consistent, on point and have easy recall. All features that were absent in the BJP's efforts. BJP needed the twin planks of development & no appeasement to win WB. Instead what we got was every leader going his own way, often contradicting each other.
On one hand BJP leaders were speaking of how muslims in WB are oppressed and that BJP will bring 'true secularism' and on the other hand there were crass comments (on asked about the sitalkuchi incident, in stead of explaining based on the district SP's comments that central forces fired in defence of govt workers attacked by the peaceful mob, BJP leaders went for hyperbole, threatening more sitalkuchi like incidents ) that didn't achieve anything but a counter polarization in favour of the TMC (without the fear mongering ISF would have cut into TMC votes giving BJP an easier run).
In a job starved state, Kailash Vijayvargia gets asked whether BJP will focus on new industries and jobs. Easy question right ? Just say yes and you score 100% right ? Of course not ! Amazingly, KV finds another way to insult bengalis & confuse listeners about BJP's approach. He derisively says you guys need to stop hankering for jobs and need to start providing jobs instead and that will be BJP's policy. Obviously, other BJP leaders start taking cues from him and parrot similar lines. The sheer tone-deafness and arrogance of the BJP leadership destroyed much of the goodwill that people had for Modi govt.

Post elections, the approach taken by the central leadership who rapidly decamped to delhi while aam BJP workers were getting killed was taken as fleeing the battlefield by the rank and file and absolutely destroyed the reputation of the party. It is increasingly considered by BJP rank and file that their only value to the central leadership is as cannon fodder to frighten hindu voters. BJP needs to move quickly if it wants to continue being a power in WB.
KL Dubey
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by KL Dubey »

^^Very good. Only one question: have you sent it to the BJP leadership? If not, this detailed analysis has nearly zero value since it will only be read by BRF wallahs like us.
KL Dubey
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by KL Dubey »

Ultimately, these hair-splitting analyses do not serve much purpose. Mostly seem biased towards the writer's personal view and a few inputs from a small set of people.

Every political campaign has quirks and tradeoffs...its not like running a corporate setup. The party internal analysis will have the most detailed picture...if they use that to benefit next time, good. Else, not much anyone can do.

The BJP setup in WB is still at an immature stage, because of its rapid growth from a very low base. It will take time to mature and stabilize. It takes a few elections to get there. I am sure Amit Shah will not relent on this.

Looking at the BJP vote share trends:

LS: 6% (2009), 17% (2014), 41% (2019)
VS: 4% (2011), 10% (2016), 38% (2021)

Conclusions:

1) The vote share has been rising meteorically.
2) VS vote shares have trailed LS by a few %.
3) Conversely, LS elections after VS have increased dramatically the vote shares.
4) Assuming maturation of the WB BJP, one would predict a large sweep in LS 2024 and a likely capture of power in VS 2026.

That's pretty much it, folks.
vimal
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by vimal »

In his early days Chandragupta Maurya attacked the heart of the Nanda kingdom in Pataliputra and lost that battle due to mismatch in the size of army and resources. He with his advisor Chanakya then retreated westwards to regroup and take refuge. Wandering in disguise one night, he came across a mother scolding her son for chewing his bread from the middle. “Eat the outer sides first and then move to the centre of the roti. Not like Chandragupta Maurya who straightaway attacks the centre”, she admonished. The challenger learnt a valuable lesson, and the rest is history.

Moral of the story is only eat rice and never miss woods for trees.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Karan M »

KL Dubey wrote:Ultimately, these hair-splitting analyses do not serve much purpose. Mostly seem biased towards the writer's personal view and a few inputs from a small set of people.
Constantly shooting the messenger and running down the credibility of the analysis by claiming it is biased doesn't help either. If you can't handle criticism then you shouldn't be discussing politics. The author is as nationalist and pro BJP as it can get, you clearly know nothing about him and the amount of effort he'd have put into an analysis. Let the forum decide the validity of the "hair splitting analysis", rather than attempting to run his POV down.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Kakkaji »

Great analysis Rahul M!

Who are the resident Bengali leaders in BJP now with the potential to take the BJP over the top in Bengal? Does Suvendu Adhikary fit the bill? Or is it going to be back to Dilip Ghosh. There are rumours of Mukul Roy being moved to the Central Cabinet.

There are also rumours that Kailash Vijayvargiya will be replaced by Smriti Irani as in-charge of WB. Any comments?
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by KL Dubey »

Karan M wrote:Constantly shooting the messenger and running down the credibility of the analysis by claiming it is biased doesn't help either. If you can't handle criticism then you shouldn't be discussing politics. The author is as nationalist and pro BJP as it can get, you clearly know nothing about him and the amount of effort he'd have put into an analysis. Let the forum decide the validity of the "hair splitting analysis", rather than attempting to run his POV down.
Where is the "message" going?

The "forum can decide" the validity of any analysis (not sure there a separate forum decision other than the views of individual members) but that is of very little use. I have given my opinion. And wrote my own observations of the result data.

Basically the party ran a high-octane campaign with a "we are winning" message (what else can one expect them to do)...you can call it a over-hyped campaign if you want.....but the electorate was just not ready to completely rout the TMC just yet. This created a huge disappointment especially in social media (the colloquial term is "KLPD"), hence a plethora of "hair-splitting" analyses.

In reality it was a very good result to get to 77 seats and basically erase any other opposition.

Like I said, the party has all the detailed inputs and will take measures to see that things keep going upwards. This is how the BJP operates. There is no state in which the vote share came up sharply over a few elections and then stagnated below a winning level.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by shaun »

Karan M wrote:
KL Dubey wrote:Ultimately, these hair-splitting analyses do not serve much purpose. Mostly seem ...
Constantly shooting the messenger and running down the credibility of the analysis by claiming it is biased doesn't help ......
Rahulji good analysis, but it defies logic how come people there have no aspiration or atleast have the dream for better future within the state . I guess they love status quo and are nostalgic , taking pride on personalities of bygone Era with misplaced exclusivity . Hindi speakers though accommodated , can not be part of the main discourses there. What I feel is 35 years of left rule had broken the backbone of Bengali spirit . Remember a regressive govt ruling for 35 long years with their anti center slogans which still resonates . While large part of the city used to be in dark due to frequent load shedding, bhodroloks were on street to protest American imperialism in Vietnam!! Solidarity for Palestine!! You speak with any random bhodroloks about economy , the first charge they will make is , modi sarkar is selling govt companies and helping Adani Ambani, these same set of people might have suffered a lot during bsnl era but will protest any disinvestment of it !! No one is bothered about large scale development and industries . Just look at their Metro development, how much km they have added to their system for last 3 decades . Glacial speed. The aspirational bengalis have migrated with a very small set of nationalist left.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by KL Dubey »

shaun wrote:What I feel is 35 years of left rule had broken the backbone of Bengali spirit . Remember a regressive govt ruling for 35 long years with their anti center slogans which still resonates.
That is the key issue. Keeping on criticizing the BJP for running an imperfect campaign is to miss the forest for the trees.

The left and congis have been effectively wiped out and their erstwhile voters have mostly seen the light and moved to the BJP. So, indeed the BJP has created a new hope and energy in WB. Now the party has to defeat another corrosive force, which is the "greater bangla" jihad oriented TMC. It is to be seen what strategies will develop.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by ramana »

RahulM,
Thanks for the long and detailed analysis. Sure beats the pop analysis in media.
Yes, there were missteps and active measures by TMC that got them the majority.

Can you compare and contrast Suvendhu Adhikari and Mukul Roy?

If anyone wants to analyze what did TMC do right, that turned the corner after the 2019 results, would be nice.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Santosh »

RahulM, good insightful analysis. What impact did Khela hobe have on bengali voters? It was an open threat after first 2 or 3 phases when BJP was estimated to have done much better than expected. The violence was kicked to next level and BJP leaders and convoys were openly attacked. BJP leaders themselves seemed vulnerable. Many were injured. All they did was whine on twitter. The message it delivered to bengali voter was clear. Once the elections are over and central forces and leaders are gone, you are at TMC mercy - whether TMC lose or win. BJP started strong but lost the streets and that won't end well. If I am a Bengali voter, I will think twice if the risk is worth the benefit. In hind sight, 77 seems like a good performance given Bjp's helplessness.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by A Deshmukh »

Good analysis RahulM. Much needed critical view.

It was bad defeat. elections that BJP should have won.

but in the long run, it can be converted into good
- get rid of bad imports from TMCs who are not committed or are corrupt.
- get rid of local leaders who have achieved success only on Modi's reputation.
- course correction in terms of cultural imposition and promote more local leaders.

We were always apprehensive of over dependence on Modi to win local state elections.
We have seen this again and again - Bihar, Delhi.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by SRajesh »

RahulMji
A question or two :
1. was the defection of all and sundry from TMC to BJP a 'Trojan Horse', reason I am asking is because of so many Ghar-wpasi's and mainly Mukul Roy!
2. How much of this was PK's move
3. Given PK's tactics (2014, UP. Bihar et al) why did BJP think tank not have any counter moves.
And to answer Santoshji's question : Open Threat to Bengali voters (with a silent Central Govt) the main cause??
But I have another view : whether the Central Govt had advance info of the impending second wave and hence was concentrating on combating that and took the pedal off the Bengal motor!!!
Theatrics from Kejri et al not withstanding the devastation would have been far greater and if you recollect there was some Chin moves during May!!
Whether this was a deliberate virus release to destabilise internally as well as border issues created!!
I am sorry if this sounds too much as a '27/11 R........ ki Saazish'
There has been of late series of leaks and reports of Lab leak of virus.
If it has happened once what's stopping 11 Gin to repeat it again in an another country
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Kati »

So the rumor that was swirling for the last one month has come true.
The turn-coat has again become a turn-coat.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by chetak »

Wonder how many more BJP cadres in bengal are going to shift to the TMC after this debacle

wasn't this turncoat maestro once touted as the possible CM candidate in bengal
BJP national vice president mukul roy and his son subhranshu roy, along with him to join TMC in the presence of mumtaz bano in Kolkata
via@ANI 4:41 PM · Jun 11, 2021
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Yagnasri »

Good that BJP getting some lessons. Mukul Roys ( or Jatin Prasadas) are only fair whether friends. Not all coming in to the Parties are going to be Hemantha Bishwa Sharmas. Party now has to take care of the ground workers and their families in WB.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by chetak »

Kati wrote:So the rumor that was swirling for the last one month has come true.
The turn-coat has again become a turn-coat.
maybe he was a trojan horse
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Ambar »

Entirely possible. Ajit Pawar had pulled something similar but post MH elections just to mock Fadnavis and Modi/Shah. If Ajit Pawar had indeed tried to form a govt with BJP with his own faction there is no ways Sharad Pawar would have allowed him to be the Deputy CM of MH today.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by chetak »

Yagnasri wrote:Good that BJP getting some lessons. Mukul Roys ( or Jatin Prasadas) are only fair whether friends. Not all coming in to the Parties are going to be Hemantha Bishwa Sharmas. Party now has to take care of the ground workers and their families in WB.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Kati »

The lesson is - GO BACK TO THE ROOTS. Listen to RSS' apprehensions when it warned against this muddy flood water.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Kati »

Can our hon'able HM now speed up the Sarada - Narada scam investigations?
The people of the state are dismayed by the slow progress of the investigation. It appears that there is a lack of interest. If the investigations do not move forward fast and conclusively then even NaMo won't be able to save the party from going back to its 6% vote share which used to be the case during LF rule).
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by chetak »

Kati wrote:Can our hon'able HM now speed up the Sarada - Narada scam investigations?
The people of the state are dismayed by the slow progress of the investigation. It appears that there is a lack of interest. If the investigations do not move forward fast and conclusively then even NaMo won't be able to save the party from going back to its 6% vote share which used to be the case during LF rule).
a very strange reluctance to progress any case.

including literally begging jack on crack repeatedly to please, please, pretty please follow Indian laws

wonder what the real problem is, apart from the ever present prithivi raj syndrome.
Last edited by chetak on 11 Jun 2021 19:15, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Karan M »

KL Dubey wrote:
Where is the "message" going?

The "forum can decide" the validity of any analysis (not sure there a separate forum decision other than the views of individual members) but that is of very little use. I have given my opinion. And wrote my own observations of the result data.


Many people access the forum, and can read the analysis. Your comments were unfortunately quite superficial versus the amount of detail the poster put in. What's even worse is you sought to discredit his effort as hairsplitting whereas you weren't even putting in as much effort as he did.
Basically the party ran a high-octane campaign with a "we are winning" message (what else can one expect them to do)...you can call it a over-hyped campaign if you want.....but the electorate was just not ready to completely rout the TMC just yet. This created a huge disappointment especially in social media (the colloquial term is "KLPD"), hence a plethora of "hair-splitting" analyses.
Case in point regarding the superficial deductions you've made. It would be better to not jump into conclusions about why ppl are upset at the results. Many may actually be affected by the results and are hence deeply concerned. You have sought to cavalierly dismiss their concerns as a social media phenomenon. FYI, voting for the BJP in Bengal was an act of bravery and the party's mistakes need to be analysed and corrected.
In reality it was a very good result to get to 77 seats and basically erase any other opposition.
May be. But many others disagree and they have a right to their views.
Like I said, the party has all the detailed inputs and will take measures to see that things keep going upwards. This is how the BJP operates. There is no state in which the vote share came up sharply over a few elections and then stagnated below a winning level.
The party made many silly mistakes and they need to be pointed out by well wisher and serious local observers, so that they course correct. Pretending all is well breeds complacency.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by ramana »

Yagnasri wrote:Good that BJP getting some lessons. Mukul Roys ( or Jatin Prasadas) are only fair whether friends. Not all coming in to the Parties are going to be Hemantha Bishwa Sharmas. Party now has to take care of the ground workers and their families in WB.
looks like all supporters are busy teaching lessons to BJP. Hope they don't suffer from those lessons like those who taught Kakatiyas.

From my vantage, I would put all those deaths and violence on those who were hell-bent on teaching BJP lessons. Hope they are happy and can sleep peacefully.

Even after the Kakatiya defeat, those who wanted to teach a lesson regretted for their intent was not to cause the defeat.
In a battle what do you expect when you undercut your own side?
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by chetak »

Kati wrote:The lesson is - GO BACK TO THE ROOTS. Listen to RSS' apprehensions when it warned against this muddy flood water.
take firm action onlee

The BJP should ask them to return the shawl given to them when they joined BJP.

But no problem.

The BJP knows how to come back from any defeat.

After all, they started out with just two seats.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Kati »

Let this be a time of introspection not only for the WB state BJP init, but also for the national leadership.
The turn-coats must go through a rigorous process of showing dedicated service to the party before they are provided election ticket.
(But, again, how do you prevent the Mukul Roy syndrome???? He was helpful in 2019GE too.)

I am trying to comprehend how dejected the BJP supporters in Krishnanagar North assembly constituency have been lately. This is one seat
where BJP won with a very wide margin (Mukul Roy being the candidate). The local Hindu population are mostly Hindu refugees from ex-East Pakistan, and this entire Nadia district (which includes Krishnanagar city) has been a staunch home-turf for BJP - in a sharp contrast to the neighboring Murshidabad district - almost 75% minority dominated area and a stronghold of TMC. (Nadia district is the birthplace of Mahaprabhu Chaitantydev.)
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Supratik »

I will give my brief analysis without taking anything away from RahulM. Two other major factors were there in 2021 WB election. The WB economy has grown at a CAGR (combined annual growth rate) of 10.5% in the last five years i.e. the economy has basically doubled. This is big for a state that was in poverty for long. It is similar to Bihar where the JDU-BJP coalition has delivered doubling of the economy every 5-6 years since it came to power. With this kind of growth it is hard to dislodge the incumbent. The other reason is that in 2019 people voted for Modi because he had delivered several things through his schemes. In 2021 the fight was all about Mamata as BJP did not have a CM face who could convince voters of even greater prosperity or cleaner and better governance. So people ignored the corruption and communalism, goondagiri and voted for Mamata. The moral of the story is that every election is different and you have to use different strategies. What RahulM has said may have led to further erosion of support.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Kati »

Supratik wrote:I will give my brief analysis without taking anything away from RahulM. Two other major factors were there in 2021 WB election. The WB economy has grown at a CAGR (combined annual growth rate) of 10.5% in the last five years i.e. the economy has basically doubled. This is big for a state that was in poverty for long. It is similar to Bihar where the JDU-BJP coalition has delivered doubling of the economy every 5-6 years since it came to power. With this kind of growth it is hard to dislodge the incumbent. The other reason is that in 2019 people voted for Modi because he had delivered several things through his schemes. In 2021 the fight was all about Mamata as BJP did not have a CM face who could convince voters of even greater prosperity or cleaner and better governance. So people ignored the corruption and communalism, goondagiri and voted for Mamata. The moral of the story is that every election is different and you have to use different strategies. What RahulM has said may have led to further erosion of support.
Kind a agree. WB rural economy has been "good" for the last ten years, but that is mainly due to the borrowed money poured through various social scheme - Rupasree, Kanyasree, Swanirbhor Gosthi ("self-sufficient women"), etc. which has given a substantial purchasing power to rural women folks. No doubt about it. It is in the urban and semi-urban areas where there is a lack of jobs situation for more educated masses who are emigrating to other states. But in this mix the price rise of cooking gas, petrol, etc has done a heavy damage. When MB went around pointing fingers at the central govt for this price rise there was no effective counter strategy from the BJP leadership. On top of it, there was constant print media barrage of negative reporting.

Anyway, let's take lessons from this and move forward. This is going to be a huge learning experience not only for the WB BJP unit, for also for the other states as well. It's better to shed all these turn-coats who want to leave. Let the party become lean and more efficient, and mount a challenge to MB for every smallest opportunity. Notice that in the last two years TMC didn't miss a single opportunity of the central govt's perceived missteps pass by. From the parliament to Kolkata streets - TMC remained very very vocal. Its offense is the best defense paid off.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Aditya_V »

While the extra cess on Petrol and Diesel might have helped the Central Government tide over the crisis, it is bad optics. I think it is better it is now reduced to 20Rs per liter from 33Rs per liter
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by ramana »

Aditya_V Can you look at petrol price break down? What base price, Central, State Cess?
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by arshyam »

Rahul M-da, I hope you are looking to publish your analysis in a publication like Swarajya or OpIndia. This needs to be widely disseminated, and your efforts should not go waste.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Maria »

Dada, thank you for your analysis. Hope this is published. I am feeling dejected furthermore with Mukul Roy's ghar wapasi however one can simply hope that truth will once again triumph in this land.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Ambar »

ramana wrote:Aditya_V Can you look at petrol price break down? What base price, Central, State Cess?
Ramanaji, the below breakdown is 4 months old, fuel prices have seen significant uptick since then. The fuel prices including cooking gas have been revised upwards over 45 times since December.

Trouble is its not just the pandemic when the government increased excise duties by double digits to make up for the lost revenue, this has been the hallmark of the NDA-2 and NDA-3 governments where they have used excise duty increase to offset low crude oil prices so the consumer loses when international prices fall and loses again when international prices rise. Just to put things in perspective, since 2014 the govt tax collection on fuel is up 460%, good for the government but no so good for the consumers, especially the poor and the middle class who will pay more for everything from transportation to food to construction materials.

Inflation has political consequences. Just ask Chidambaram or Manmohan Singh.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by chetak »

is this garbage that the BJP got from the TMC after investing so much in him and his supporters.

he was making efforts to join the BJP from 2015, joined in 2017 and thereafter took a lot of money from the BJP. He seems to have established contact with the BJP brass via chandan mitra who himself was also exposed as a BJP turncoat and joined the TMC

roy looks like a sly autorickshaw driver trying to fraudulently extract a higher fare from the customer



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