2021 Five State Elections

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Jarita
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Jarita »

While the violence in West Bengal is spectacular, the onus of remediating it does not lie with the central government. It is not Modi's job to check every little ticket that is issued. The West Bengal BJP leadership is coming across as cowardly and undeserving. I see Swapan Dasgupta tweeting and asking the center to do something.
This is completely useless and does not endanger confidence. The West Bengal BJP MPs/ MLAs need to be in the killing fields, shoulder to shoulder with their compatriots. Instead you see pusillanimous tweets and soundbytes deflecting all the work to Modi. Some prime examples being Swapan Dasgupta and Babul Supriyo. They are going on whining. You have almost 80 seats. That is a good enough number to stand up.
Give it a rest. Form street groups and counter. I hope Adhikari can stand up.
Sachin
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Sachin »

Jarita wrote:The West Bengal BJP leadership is coming across as cowardly and undeserving. I see Swapan Dasgupta tweeting and asking the center to do something.....
I hope Adhikari can stand up.
In that case I see the BJP (or rather RSS) way different in Kerala at least. BJP has got a big duck in KL elections, but not even a single attack on any BJP or RSS worker. And here again it is not mainly the BJP 'leaders' are doing any great stuff, but the RSS. RSS has more grass root presence in KL, they have lost many workers but they have also hit back in equal measure.
Sumeet
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Sumeet »

Sachin wrote:
May be it is all the negative news, but this I really feel that Modi's (and BJP) popularity is slowing fading. Both of them seems to be on a permenant "election rally mode". With COVID Wave 2 getting more serious at least there has to be more visibility of N.Modi as a Prime Minister of India, rather than an election campaigner. Frequent presence in National TV, explaining strategies with perhaps a panel of experts (in medical, supply chain mgmt etc.) is now required.

This is a very important point Sachin. People in MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh may have elected another state govt in 2018 and all the pundits were saying Modi is finished, will loose GE 2019 etc ... but he got all the seats when it came to central govt elections. In face of critical time he should be there in the driver seat and calming people down with informed messages on what is being done to address this crisis and not be seen in election mode in Bengal. That is very negative optics. He should have dropped everything and came to Delhi to control situation from a war room footing since early April if not late March.

If he would have done that, Kumbh wouldn't have happened but he has really damaged his image. He was really cast in titanium, but now he will have to constantly deal with this blemish and administrative failure for a good time to come including next general elections. You can have a legitimate defense as to why you couldn't predict this wave and/or estimate size of this wave but there is no explanation as to why you weren't acting as a PM when nation was facing one of (if not worst crisis) post independence.

In short term as you say he should come out with specific figures on what is being done to get Remedevisir, Oxygen Concentrators, Oxygen plants, Ventilator and in the long term all vaccination plan. If he vaccinates (both doses) ~ 60% population in next one year that will be great achievement by itself.

I keep reminding folks that he is not perfect or flawless (he is a human only), at one point in time he led India successfully through in a clash with China and Corona 1st wave. That itself is a great achievement of 2020. Doubt any other leader would have see us through.

And last but not the least please replace FM Sitharaman with Piyush Goyal.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Sicanta »

Babul Supriyo - We r all doing everything that's possible•Plz understand 1 thing that sadly I wil not b able to reqch a karyakarta's place cuz my Car wil b attacked immediately•TMChhi goons R out in the open rioting & police hv tucked themselves inside safely•But trying everything sincerely

Suvendu Adhikari • শুভেন্দু অধিকারী
@SuvenduWB
Heart-rending scenes in #Kendamari Village in my Constituency #Nandigram AC earlier today. Miscreants from the @AITCofficial mercilessly thrashed our Women Karyakartas @BJP4Bengal A shameful day for the Nation. This is a living example of how the TMC respects our Nari Shakti…

....................................................................................................................................

All their action seems to be limited to either twitter or asking for reports from perpetrators themselves.
Sicanta
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Sicanta »

Amit Malviya - The BJP now has 18 MPs and 77 MLAs in West Bengal. We will respond in adequate measure within the constitutional framework. National President’s visit reaffirms party’s unwavering commitment towards protecting our karyakartas at a crucial time like this...
chetak
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by chetak »

Sicanta wrote:Amit Malviya - The BJP now has 18 MPs and 77 MLAs in West Bengal. We will respond in adequate measure within the constitutional framework. National President’s visit reaffirms party’s unwavering commitment towards protecting our karyakartas at a crucial time like this...

no one is asking about the phrase suo moto.

It seems to be permanently reserved for the sanghis onlee.

all hail the wokes.
chetak
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by chetak »

At last, the BJP has come out with concrete action

this should be more than enough to bring back even the dead and murdered karyakarthas.

well done.


@BJP4India · 15h

The BJP has announced a nationwide dharna on 5th May against the widespread violence unleashed by TMC workers post the election results in West Bengal.

This protest will be held following all Covid protocols across all organisational mandals of the BJP.
SRajesh
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by SRajesh »

https://www.outlookindia.com/website/st ... lls/381983
These are the people that BJP need to promote and protect.
Regardless of being an MLA wonder how safe this lady be given the scale of violence being unleashed
Aditya_V
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Aditya_V »

Regarding the Media story on the great NTK- Seeman party

Total votes received by NTK ~8,96,000, Total Eligible Voters in TN 6.29 crore, 72.18% voting percentage, Those who voted 4.54 crore. There % of votes received by NTK out of total votes in TN using normal Mathematics and not Madrasa Mathematics- 1.974%.

This is a never BJP vote story but not DMK, its vote share unless some foreign power in convivence with people in power in TN really throw money at it and some secular parties sacrifice their growth for NTK growth - it has no future. MNM, NTK, DK will all disappear when DMK is in power to appear when the AIDMK comes back.
chetak
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by chetak »

Image
SivaR
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by SivaR »

View from TN elections:
The only true win for BJP is from Nagercoil assembly. Others two are ADMK strong men, jumped to BJP, since they could not get seat in ADMK. The Coimbatore South BJP win is due to ADMK's plan to defeat Kamal Haasan at any cost. The central parties (BJP/Congress) cannot run on their own in TN.
The role of Congress ended in 1967. Actually it was 1962, the first win was in Tanjore, where M.Karunanidhi defeat Parisutham Nadaar (Congress), a clean politician, freedom fighter and able administrator, sports person, who brought Tamilnadu's first medical college post-independance in Tanjore by donating 150 acres of their family land. But M.K defeated him by his strong Oratorial skill and highlighting the rice shortage due to draught at that time.
Also M.K is Tamil Scholar, articulated 'Thirukkural' , considered as Bible of Tamils (irrespective of religion) written by Thiruvalluvar, 2000 years ago. He used this to polarise the votes to his advantage.

Later Dravidian Party split into two in '72 and they rule the roost. These are cadre based parties and their party organisational capability is second to none.
My suggestion would be not to run on the 'One nation, One Party' principle. India is diverse and it is very risky to run on this principle.
Instead of using the 'BJP' brand name, they can indirectly start some other name and attract the locals by focusing on the real local issues. This will be similar to what happened in '72 in TN (splitting BJP to two indirectly and keep all the other forces away for decades), this strategy is followed by lot of MNC's having different brand name for different regions based on the local taste. Also the age demography is very different in TN, Kerala - average age is at-least 10 years older than national average.

The current issue in TN, is migration to Chennai ,Bangalore, Middle east and Abroad the youth are not finding opportunities near their home. Already 30 Million are working and living in Greater Chennai and another 10 Million in Greater Bangalore/Hosur area, this is from 75 Million Population. Where the Politicos, make Tons of Money in Housing(real estate), Education, HealthCare, Transport. Along with it comes the over crowding of the cities and it is side effects. The anti-incumbency is always there and the young are restless with current government(See Whole of Chennai region is decimated with anti-incumbancy).
The new party should bring with it ideas for decentralising this , and bring the opportunities to be spread across the state. Actually Covid is very good opportunity to decentralise these cities atleast in IT-vity. Unlike other states it is easy to implement these in TN, where the infrastructure/human resource is already in place.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Jay »

It's friggin depressing to stare at 5 more years of TMC rules in WB. With everything going on around, reading forecasts on WB elections was a ray of hope. I mean BJP still got close to 80 and that's something, but wiping the floor of WB with didi and her traitorous supporters would have been Karmic.
Last edited by Jay on 05 May 2021 01:38, edited 1 time in total.
arshyam
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by arshyam »

siva509 wrote:The only true win for BJP is from Nagercoil assembly. Others two are ADMK strong men, jumped to BJP, since they could not get seat in ADMK. The Coimbatore South BJP win is due to ADMK's plan to defeat Kamal Haasan at any cost.
Nainar Nagendran (Tirunelveli) is ex-ADMK, but he didn't jump ship recently. He did contest on a BJP ticket back in 2019 as well. Be that as it may, who is the other strongman you are referring to? Apart from M.R. Gandhi (Nagercoil), the remaining MLAs are both women, and neither seem to be ex-ADMK (at least, AFAIK).
siva509 wrote:Already 30 Million are working and living in Greater Chennai and another 10 Million in Greater Bangalore/Hosur area, this is from 75 Million Population.
Do you have a source for these numbers, especially for Chennai? This is the first I am hearing of a 3 crore population in and around Chennai. Yes, there is intra-state migrant population in these areas, but we need to have the correct numbers to get the right picture.
siva509 wrote:...'Thirukkural' , considered as Bible of Tamils (irrespective of religion) written by Thiruvalluvar, 2000 years ago.
Kindly avoid such comparisons sir. It doesn't help to use such external references to validate our own works. Thirukkural has enough depth to stand and speak for itself. This seems to be a uniquely desi trait to associate with something from abroad, which only hints at our own inferiority complexes: "Detroit of India" for Chennai, "Manchester of India" for Surat, "Manchester of south India" for Coimbatore, etc. Then there is Bollywood, Kollywood, Tollywood, Sandalwood, and other such wooden edifices. When will we simply just say Thirukkural, Chennai or Coimbatore?
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Jarita »

Kindly avoid such comparisons sir. It doesn't help to use such external references to validate our own works. Thirukkural has enough depth to stand and speak for itself. This seems to be a uniquely desi trait to associate with something from abroad, which only hints at our own inferiority complexes: "Detroit of India" for Chennai, "Manchester of India" for Surat, "Manchester of south India" for Coimbatore, etc. Then there is Bollywood, Kollywood, Tollywood, Sandalwood, and other such wooden edifices. When will we simply just say Thirukkural, Chennai or Coimbatore?
+1
Sicanta
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Sicanta »

Himanta Biswa Sarma -
In a sad development 300-400 @BJP4Bengal karyakartas and family members have crossed over to Dhubri in Assam after confronted with brazen persecution & violence. We’re giving shelter & food. @MamataOfficial Didi must stop this ugly dance of demonocracy!

https://twitter.com/himantabiswa/status ... 35492?s=20
Prem Kumar
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Prem Kumar »

@BJP4India · 15h

The BJP has announced a nationwide dharna on 5th May against the widespread violence unleashed by TMC workers post the election results in West Bengal.

This protest will be held following all Covid protocols across all organisational mandals of the BJP.
Kadi Ninda in action! TMC goons must be shivering in their slippers
SivaR
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by SivaR »

arshyam wrote:
siva509 wrote:The only true win for BJP is from Nagercoil assembly. Others two are ADMK strong men, jumped to BJP, since they could not get seat in ADMK. The Coimbatore South BJP win is due to ADMK's plan to defeat Kamal Haasan at any cost.
Nainar Nagendran (Tirunelveli) is ex-ADMK, but he didn't jump ship recently. He did contest on a BJP ticket back in 2019 as well. Be that as it may, who is the other strongman you are referring to? Apart from M.R. Gandhi (Nagercoil), the remaining MLAs are both women, and neither seem to be ex-ADMK (at least, AFAIK).
siva509 wrote:Already 30 Million are working and living in Greater Chennai and another 10 Million in Greater Bangalore/Hosur area, this is from 75 Million Population.
Do you have a source for these numbers, especially for Chennai? This is the first I am hearing of a 3 crore population in and around Chennai. Yes, there is intra-state migrant population in these areas, but we need to have the correct numbers to get the right picture.
siva509 wrote:...'Thirukkural' , considered as Bible of Tamils (irrespective of religion) written by Thiruvalluvar, 2000 years ago.
Kindly avoid such comparisons sir. It doesn't help to use such external references to validate our own works. Thirukkural has enough depth to stand and speak for itself. This seems to be a uniquely desi trait to associate with something from abroad, which only hints at our own inferiority complexes: "Detroit of India" for Chennai, "Manchester of India" for Surat, "Manchester of south India" for Coimbatore, etc. Then there is Bollywood, Kollywood, Tollywood, Sandalwood, and other such wooden edifices. When will we simply just say Thirukkural, Chennai or Coimbatore?
He's ex-Admk and the ADMK has got levers to make a Garwapsi for him. The Coimbatore south was to prevent Kamal, since ADMK are very well aware, they can easily control BJP's growth in the state as they wish.

Greater Chennai is comprised of 4 districts (Chennai, Chengalpattu, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram), these districts have population of 18 Million as of 2011 census and these are the fastest growing districts in the state, add 50% for the past decade. It will easily reach 27 Million and add floating population. To verify, just check with any one in the state, who's son or daughter graduated in the last decade, what they do or where they're. you will get the answer as Chennai/Bangalore.

I just mentioned as a metaphor, i don't have any other easy word for it. Thirukkural is unparalleled in literature and its Dharmic, is relevant for past two millenniums, if people are interested in understanding it, I would suggest learn Tamil just for it. The point, I tried to convey is, even though MK portrayed himself as Atheist, his articulation of this Dharmic literature, brought him votes from all corners.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by AshishA »

The violence against BJP karyakartas is appalling in West Bengal. If BJP WB unit cannot protect their karyakartas, then it calls for desperate measures. One such measure is to voluntarily go to police station and lock themselves up. I don't know any other way they can protect themselves. Even this measure depends on whether police will not allow a custodial death or will they lay red carpet for TMC goons to barge into police stations to murder the karyakartas.
Jarita
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Jarita »

Prem Kumar wrote:
@BJP4India · 15h

The BJP has announced a nationwide dharna on 5th May against the widespread violence unleashed by TMC workers post the election results in West Bengal.

This protest will be held following all Covid protocols across all organisational mandals of the BJP.
Kadi Ninda in action! TMC goons must be shivering in their slippers
What else do you expect central to do? Nadda and co are already in WB.
The center has to behave with some decorum and not appear to fan flames. Those comparing center to Indira and other riff raff don’t realize that that time has gone.
The center has to come across as fair.
That is why the ball is in the state leaderships court.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Ambar »

The vultures are gathering. 15,000 farmers to gherao Delhi later this week, BJP also loses panchayat polls in UP. The later is probably because of the terrible covid situation in the state, the timing couldn't have been any worse with so close to UP elections.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Vips »

AshishA wrote:The violence against BJP karyakartas is appalling in West Bengal. If BJP WB unit cannot protect their karyakartas, then it calls for desperate measures. One such measure is to voluntarily go to police station and lock themselves up. I don't know any other way they can protect themselves. Even this measure depends on whether police will not allow a custodial death or will they lay red carpet for TMC goons to barge into police stations to murder the karyakartas.
Mumtaz Begum wants to send a message across to the BJP supporters and non TMC voting Hindus that in West Bengal no one can protect them even if BJP is in Power in the Centre. She wants the Non-TMC supporters to vote for her in 2024 Lok Sabha elections as she wants to win maximum seats to establish herself as the front runner for the PM post if the opposition wins in 2024 and to win maximum seats in Lok Sabha in 2024, she will unleash maximum fear, Chaos and Violence on the Hindus. It is a given - BJP supporters and Hindus in West Bengal will now suffer in the run upto the Lok Sabha elections of 2024.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by venkat_kv »

I wanted to post these questions earlier, but seeing the reports from kati Saab, i refrained thinking he probably has a better pulse around.
During the tripura elections Opindia carried out articles that said that the state could turn saffron, but no such articles this time with even emphasis on having smaller micro meetings to convince people instead of mega rallies.
Also in their interview with rabin deb who was a chief whip for the left during Buddhadeb govt, he kept harping on defeating the BJP as the bigger of two evils between the BJP and TMC.
it said that TMC had advantage in the state and also Mamata had advantage in Nandigram, but seeing the election results, the BJP pollsters were predicting 100 seats in first four phases.

1. If Kati saar can extrapolate, if after the first phase did TMC get desperate/careful and seek the vote transfer scheme from left and INC?
2. Also if TMC was so confident of victory why was PK in a meeting alluding to BJP winning bengal in the call with the lutyens cabal, due to Modi popularity?
3. also someone like rishi bagree also tweeted that his left leaning friends were despondent along with an audio of Buddadeb asking left to vote for BJP in case they(the left) can't win individually, to punish the TMC.

was this also just a ploy to confuse voters?
Last edited by venkat_kv on 05 May 2021 02:31, edited 1 time in total.
venkat_kv
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by venkat_kv »

Jarita wrote:
Prem Kumar wrote:
Kadi Ninda in action! TMC goons must be shivering in their slippers
What else do you expect central to do? Nadda and co are already in WB.
The center has to behave with some decorum and not appear to fan flames. Those comparing center to Indira and other riff raff don’t realize that that time has gone.
The center has to come across as fair.
That is why the ball is in the state leaderships court.
the least someone who is BJP supporter can do is tweet to the lutyens jounalists with the pics of violence and ask if this is democracy in action or protecting democracy as mamata didi alludes.
normall supporters can talk nonsense. But journalists can't really hide with their high horse and moral policing.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by darshan »

If not for fake narratives peddled by BIF about 2002, it would have been very tough, if not impossible, for Modi to win second time in GJ. BJP leaders never figured as quick to dial for any Hindu problems in GJ. And they continue to prove that. It's the fake narratives that established the fake street credit for BJP in GJ. The great twittery PM who never misses to feel pain about islamists but not for Hindus.

Meanwhile, JD sums it up pretty well about WB.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by KL Dubey »

Sumeet wrote:If he would have done that, Kumbh wouldn't have happened but he has really damaged his image. He was really cast in titanium, but now he will have to constantly deal with this blemish and administrative failure for a good time to come including next general elections. You can have a legitimate defense as to why you couldn't predict this wave and/or estimate size of this wave but there is no explanation as to why you weren't acting as a PM when nation was facing one of (if not worst crisis) post independence.

In short term as you say he should come out with specific figures on what is being done to get Remedevisir, Oxygen Concentrators, Oxygen plants, Ventilator and in the long term all vaccination plan. If he vaccinates (both doses) ~ 60% population in next one year that will be great achievement by itself.

I keep reminding folks that he is not perfect or flawless (he is a human only), at one point in time he led India successfully through in a clash with China and Corona 1st wave. That itself is a great achievement of 2020. Doubt any other leader would have see us through.

And last but not the least please replace FM Sitharaman with Piyush Goyal.
For someone as intelligent as you, your approach seems extremely inefficient since the chances of senior people from India goremint regularly visiting BRF are very low. When the PM can be directly reached by twitter, or on Modi app, or Mygov.in, why haven't you sent in these suggestions directly ? You can just post the link here, that way people are not directly bombarded with self-goal propaganda.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Prem Kumar »

Jarita: 10 BJP workers killed, 100s of homes burnt and 1000s of tribals fleeing their village are not random stats.

1) The centre can & must ask the Governor if the constitutional machinery in the state has broken down
2) The centre, in parallel, must warm up the SC via offline channels that the situation is unacceptable and they can/will impose Article 356
3) Amit Shah must publicly & privately warn Mamata Banerjee of the consequences of her actions

Take your enemies to the mat, if need be. They'll know they've crossed a redline and won't dare cross it again. Its important for the Govt to signal to their supporters/Hindus that they will be protected

When you have power, you must wield it in a just cause. I don't buy this "Centre cannot impose 356 immediately after elections" BS. If TMC can terrorize right after elections, they should be taught a lesson in the same timeframe.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Kati »

venkat_kv wrote:I wanted to post these questions earlier, but seeing the reports from kati Saab, i refrained thinking he probably has a better pulse around.
During the tripura elections Opindia carried out articles that said that the state could turn saffron, but no such articles this time with even emphasis on having smaller micro meetings to convince people instead of mega rallies.
Also in their interview with rabin deb who was a chief whip for the left during Buddhadeb govt, he kept harping on defeating the BJP as the bigger of two evils between the BJP and TMC.
it said that TMC had advantage in the state and also Mamata had advantage in Nandigram, but seeing the election results, the BJP pollsters were predicting 100 seats in first four phases.

1. If Kati saar can extrapolate, if after the first phase did TMC get desperate/careful and seek the vote transfer scheme from left and INC?
2. Also if TMC was so confident of victory why was PK in a meeting alluding to BJP winning bengal in the call with the lutyens cabal, due to Modi popularity?
3. also someone like rishi bagree also tweeted that his left leaning friends were despondent along with an audio of Buddadeb asking left to vote for BJP in case they(the left) can't win individually, to punish the TMC.

was this also just a ploy to confuse voters?
Venkat_kv Saar,
I'm not an expert, but just keep my eyes and ears open. Let me give what I have observed/heard/analyzed.

1. The first phase of election covered the tribal dominated Jauglemahal, and two Midnapore districts (east and west). In this region, BJP did very well in GE2019 which came as a shock for TMC. It is also true that Mumtaz Banoo, with the help of PK's ground team, paid an exceptionally close attention to this region. Local government officials were asked to visit every block/village and figure out what the common people were lacking. This had made the state govt allocate Rs. rice to almost all villagers. TMC govt added more money to Kanyasree project to give free bicycles to village girls to commute to schools/colleges, Mumtaz Banoo started Rupasree project to give cash to girls when they turned 18 for their marriage and/or vocational jobs, etc. Now these projects, money for which whittled down from various central projects, did make an impact - no denying of this fact. This was not limited to Junglemahal only, it covered the whole state (lesser in North Bengal to some extent).
After talking to many people over the last few days I firmly believe that not only the Muslims voted pretty much en-block for TMC, but also BJP failed to guage the mood of rural women, especially the weaker segment. Look at it from their point of view - "Here is a woman CM who is giving money to us as "Bhaata" (stipend), so why rock the boat?"

2. All talks about "Bengali pride getting hurt, BJP not projecting any CM face, BJP bringing central leadership for campaigning..." - are mostly trash, - only good for urban armchair experts. What I said above seems to me the biggest surprise - Muslim vote-bank which was understood from the beginning; and the women's vote which was under-emphasized. The local TMC leaders' "cut-money" issue was very much there till GE 2019 which got reflected in BJP's 18 MPs, but after that election, with PK's directive, Mumtaz banoo took a very stern stand against many local TMC leaders who were notorious and/or were infamous for creating unnecessary trouble. On one hand, Mumtaz Banoo expanded her more dole-outs - most notably (a) "Didi'ke Bolo" (Ask/Call Didi) which established a statewide toll free number to report to her all happenings at the grass-root level to address people's concerns; (b) "Duar'e Sarkar" (Sarkar at your doorstep) - which saw local level government officials coming at people's doorsteps, especially elders, widows, etc, to deliver government services, pension documents, etc etc; and (c) Swastho Sathi (Health Companion) - which launched medical insurance card to get free medical care at all hospitals (which is very doubtful since it was launched just a few months before the election, and private hospitals were grumbling about nonpayment of reimbursements). BJP criticized heavily about these last minute moves as poll gimmicks, but probably misjudged the people's mood. When the Swastho Sathi project was launched every neighborhood had serpentine lines to get signed up. The govt officials came to set-up tents at every neighborhoods. I personally saw seventy percent of the people standing in line in two neighborhoods were women.

3. Some people are saying that PK's leaked conversation with lutyen reporters was deliberate to sow a seed of complacency among BJP leaders. I'm not sure about that. NaMo is tremendously popular and revered among a large chunk of people, but again many people didn't want to rock the boat. Also, PK wasn't hundred percent sure, and perhaps was keeping an escape hatch open if things were to happen differently. But who knows - I'm also hearing from many that PK's involvement went so deep that the state govt vetted the list of poll officials very carefully, deliberately, and most likely many were compromised thoroughly. Otherwise how could BJP lose some outright winnable seats in Howrah and Hooghly districts, - just backyard of Kolkata, where there is a substantial nonbengali population (though second / third gen).

4. At the lower level, I know a few areas where the left supporters actively helped the BJP candidates' campaign. See - barring just 5%, the remaining 40% of the left voters have migrated to either TMC or BJP. Muslims have gone lock, stock and barrel to TMC. Hindu left supporters have taken sides in a 50-50 way. But as I said, the women's vote has been misjudged in this election, especially the rural ones.

5. In urban areas, voting % was quite low, especially in the last two phases. So who voted? - mostly slum dwellers and people of lower strata. They depend heavily on govt doleouts. And Mumtaz Banoo made it a point to give generous cash to all neighborhood clubs - literally nurturing a ready to call in a large mercenary force. Whether jobs are created or not, whether industries are coming or not, - all took a back seat. Money flow to these clubs has been uninterrupted, and perhaps this made a big impact.

How can this stranglehold be broken by BJP? The answer may be difficult to find out, but easy to see also. Just follow Mumtaz Banoo's formula - follow exactly what she did in 2008 - the run up to 2011 election: do not spare any big or small opportunity go by - it can be busfare hike or flood relief distribution - create a mass hysteria against the government - undertake statewide padayaatra - start sit-in demonstration - force the state to use police - which aggravates the situation further .... eventually it will have a snowball effect. Every person, with his/her smallest issues to complain about, will give a sympathetic view to such a street-fighter, and find such a person as a savior. BJP has one advantage though - keep highlighting the Muslim thugs' abuses which will get a sympathetic support from Hindu refugee families, especially middle / lower-middle class.

And, O! of course - don't give a slack to all the ongoing corruption investigations by ED and CBI against the good for nothing "nephew" and his family. On this matter people are very sensitive. Common people in all strata do blame the central government for not speeding up the investigations. Hence a perception has been built that AS lets loose ED and CBI only to settle political scores. I have heard many many many .... many complains that if NaMo is so clean then why isn't he making sure that all ongoing corruption investigations are not getting wrapped up in a timely manner? What is holding up such investigations which are dragging for years? ...
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Kati »

Forgot to add the Tripura (my another home state) issue.

Tripura was a whole lot different matter than WB. Both are bengali speaking states, but that's it - the similarity ends there. Sizewise Tripura is almost like a large district of WB, - hence managing the affairs there was much smoother. All groups within BJP worked seamlessly under the able leadership of Sri Sunil Deodhar.

But now, the current CM (Biplab Deb) is making a mess of the state affairs. If the central leadership doesn't pay close attention (without intervening publicly) then it can lead to major embarrassment in near future. This is a state where CPM is still a very very potent force, and they are working tirelessly in the tribal areas to win back the support (that is how CPM rose in Tripura in its early days).
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Kati »

In terms of mentality Bengali Hindus of Tripura are quite different from their WB counterparts, even though residents of each state have family members in the other. Is it the hill culture of Tripura? is it the close proximity and intermingling with the tribal population (who constitute about one third of Tripura's population)? But if the Muslim thugs run amok in Tripura then the Hindus will bury them alive there. That is how the mentality there. But as such, Muslims in Tripura constitute less than 10% of the population, and at least for the time being they seem to be less radicalized. (This may be a temporary matter - who knows.)
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by chetak »

Prem Kumar wrote:Jarita: 10 BJP workers killed, 100s of homes burnt and 1000s of tribals fleeing their village are not random stats.

1) The centre can & must ask the Governor if the constitutional machinery in the state has broken down
2) The centre, in parallel, must warm up the SC via offline channels that the situation is unacceptable and they can/will impose Article 356
3) Amit Shah must publicly & privately warn Mamata Banerjee of the consequences of her actions

Take your enemies to the mat, if need be. They'll know they've crossed a redline and won't dare cross it again. Its important for the Govt to signal to their supporters/Hindus that they will be protected

When you have power, you must wield it in a just cause. I don't buy this "Centre cannot impose 356 immediately after elections" BS. If TMC can terrorize right after elections, they should be taught a lesson in the same timeframe.

You just today witnessed what illegal immigration is capable of if unchecked.

the attackers are not Hindus but the victims certainly are.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Aditya_V »

Regarding WB and Kerala and TN, I BIF have won a short term battle for a longer term defeat

It is clear that was some broad level agreement, Left and INC would sacrifice themselves in WB- ground level cadres will all desert them , minority will to TMC and majority will go BJP in 2024- make no mistake this is clearly apparent from the INC- Left top level behavior and the cadre behavior- the rank and file feel betrayed.

A Left loss in Kerala would mean the Left even probably loosing national party status- so BIF , INC and their foreign leadership had to make sure through various tools, local religious leaders etc.

We dont need complicated theories but WB and Kerala the Left INC ecosystem have fixed it for short term victory but long term defeat.

TN - DMK propaganda will not boomerang on them, they have too many lazy people, their 5% margin in a wave election for them post economic distress following corona lockdowns will completely reverse by 2024 and 2026.

WB and TN will net BJP seats and make up for some losses across rest of the states in India.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by chetak »

kamal hassan is desperate to win

spouting nonsense against the Hindus is standard dravidian tactics. this guy is a traitor to his class and culture, all for a few dollars more.

note the veerappan type mustache, a standard indicator of male supremacy in his muddled mind.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by sanjayc »

Kati wrote: Venkat_kv Saar,
I'm not an expert, but just keep my eyes and ears open. Let me give what I have observed/heard/analyzed.
Excellent information Kati. As usual, civilizational issues and Muslims moving towards majority in several districts never ever figure in Hindu voting calculations, even when the danger is imminent and just a couple of decades away. Their entire voting behavior is based on doles, freebies, cash, and bread-and-butter issues. (No different from Delhi people who keep voting for Kejri for free water and electricity even as he brings in trainloads of Muslims from Bihar to settle in Delhi as vote bank, making several parts of Delhi Muslim majority). Even if BJP gives ten times the doles to Muslims, the momins will pocket all of it and still vote for anyone positioned to defeat BJP. This is the difference. As Savarkar said, Hindus lack "Shatru Bodh" (an awareness of who the enemies and their enablers are, hence end up voting for them all the time).
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by sanjayc »

chetak wrote:kamal hassan is desperate to win
Spouting nonsense against the Hindus is standard dravidian tactics. this guy is a traitor to his class and culture, all for a few dollars more.
In states ruled by Dravidians / communists / Congressis where Hindus have been strategically taught inferiority complex and self-hating behavior, spouting nonsense against Hindus is the only way to get them to vote for you. (This behaviour can be seen in TN. DMK a few decades back organized public beatings of Lord Ram's idols with slippers and Tamil Hindus brought them to power as a major political force. In Kerala where Sabrimala was violated by communists, Hindus immediately rewareded them by voting for them in droves.)

In these states, if you side with Hindus and promote their interests, they will defeat you with a vengeance (hence BJP RSS will keep getting rejected in favour of Hindu-hating parties and ideologies). Arun Shourie called it "a desire to get oneself flogged." This will continue as long as Hindus in these states keep suffering from inferiority complex about themselves.

Kamal Hasan got defeated by less than 1,000 votes. He should have abused the Hindus harder to win.
Last edited by sanjayc on 05 May 2021 13:46, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by SRajesh »

^^^ I have a slightly different view on this, and maybe some or most on the forum might find it controversial.
My view:
WB or what is Bengal today/TN had been under direct British rule i.e., as presidency (even though Bombay Presidency but had a strong Maratha rule preceding the Presidency)
The image of half naked hindoo has been deeply seared on the psyche that it would be very difficult to eradicate it.
To supplant that alternative identity has been cultivated : Dravidian in TN and Literate/emancipated/left leaning in WB(and the same in Kerala)
All just hate the word hindoo/hindi/hindutva or whatever you might want to call it.
All in the name of literate forward thinking socialist world!!
Whether the English/Evangelist cleverly used it to promote their agenda is another matter.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Raja »

Why do you think that your view is an outlier on this forum? Quite frankly, it is the prevailing sentiment.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by chetak »

here is the voting pattern of the Hindus

many UC voted in favour of DMK.

go figure

this is the long standing dravidian cultural manifestation of the deep seated aversion towards the "north Indian, Hindi speaking BJP"

and the BJP has done nothing to break this stereotype, droning on and on as it does, ad nauseam, about "sab ka saath, sab ka vikas" which evokes little or no response in this state.




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The caste calculus in DMK’s win

With the DMK-led alliance winning a two-thirds majority in Tamil Nadu, it may be useful to look at the caste calculus in the recently concluded Assembly election. The post-poll survey shows that the support of Dalits, minorities and upper castes played a major role in helping the DMK alliance win.

Dominant backward castes offered only lukewarm support to the DMK alliance. In southern Tamil Nadu, a majority of the Thevar vote (55%) was won by the AIADMK alliance, with only two of every 10 voters supporting the DMK-led front (19%).In the north, the AIADMK alliance, along with the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), secured a majority (54%) of Vanniyar votes. Parts of northern Tamil Nadu also saw a polarisation of the Mudaliar and Vanniyar votes in AIADMK alliance’s favour. However, for both social groups, it was not a sweep for the AIADMK, as the DMK coalition got at least four out of every 10 votes.


The Dalit vote for the DMK-led coalition helped them consolidate in the north and offset the loss of the Vanniyar and Mudaliar support. In the west, the Gounder vote was firmly with the AIADMK front (59%). Here, the support of Arunthathiyar Dalits (68%), for the DMK alliance helped it garner votes and slash the winning margins for the AIADMK front. The support of the Nadars, the Devendrakula Velalars, and Christians helped the DMK-led coalition in the South.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by sanjayc »

Read on Twitter:

Today 203 years ago, Karl Marx, the greatest thinker ever after Rahul Gandhi, was born in the city of Trier, Prussia. His ideas brought prosperity to all those nations which rejected them.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by darshan »

Kati wrote: And, O! of course - don't give a slack to all the ongoing corruption investigations by ED and CBI against the good for nothing "nephew" and his family. On this matter people are very sensitive. Common people in all strata do blame the central government for not speeding up the investigations. Hence a perception has been built that AS lets loose ED and CBI only to settle political scores. I have heard many many many .... many complains that if NaMo is so clean then why isn't he making sure that all ongoing corruption investigations are not getting wrapped up in a timely manner? What is holding up such investigations which are dragging for years? ...
This sums up perennial thought process of GJ people for the last decade or so. Except they continue to vote for BJP as they are in steady state and don't want to disturb the apple cart. Except the new incoming generation has no memory of INC days and islamic terrorism.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by darshan »

sanjayc wrote: Excellent information Kati. As usual, civilizational issues and Muslims moving towards majority in several districts never ever figure in Hindu voting calculations, even when the danger is imminent and just a couple of decades away. Their entire voting behavior is based on doles, freebies, cash, and bread-and-butter issues.
Hindus always have plan B: palayan to other Hindu areas. Allow the takeover and then head down to different areas. Much easier than to vote to fight. Freebies are slave mentality that has not gone away due to centuries of enslavement.

Till this day it's so easy to run into Hindus that come from states with islamic terrorism but preach that we don't discriminate against other religions. Just two days ago heard from a person from Delhi. The place where so many Hindus have been killed in recent times.
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