2021 Five State Elections

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 03 May 2021 02:58

That is an interesting interpretation of Hijrah, conventionally referring to the flight from Mecca. Muslims go to Europe only because they can. Even they would hesitate to be subject to the murderous ways of the Arab strongman.

I find it hard to believe some would condemn their children to foul alley ways, stunting, oppression of darul harb, big bad Hindu India.

But some religions have a stronger motivating power.

sanjayc · Post by **sanjayc** » 03 May 2021 03:22

sanjaykumar wrote:I find it hard to believe some would condemn their children to foul alley ways, stunting, oppression of darul harb, big bad Hindu India.

Isn't an example right in front of us -- refusal of most Indian Muslims to migrate to Pakistan in 1947? They didn't go even when they had a choice. And look at their percentage of population in India in 1950 and now -- they have done rapid breeding in two generations and also encouraged Hijra (BDs and Rohingyas infiltrating into India) to increase their numbers. The next step is to stake claim to some portion of the land. This they will do in another 25 years (finally curing Hindus of secularism).

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 03 May 2021 03:26

Reading about the flight of Hindus from various parts of WB reminded me about Chittaranjan Park in Delhi which is considered a Bengali stronghold. It was originally known as EPDP (East Pakistan Displaced Person) colony. Seems like some folks never learn or pretend not to learn.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 03 May 2021 03:28

Mort Walker wrote:
Wow. Can Narasinharao garu give me advice into which startups and companies I should invest in? The guy has a phenomenal record after all.

I can't believe people are falling for soothsayers. Eventually they will be correct like a broken clock is twice a day.

I'm sure you haven't watched the video. For your information, he comes from big scientific background and working in US. He is using the software he wrote himself. Now, in my experience I like his explanations and how he has arrived at each of the prediction. So, I wouldn't be so dismissive when he has got many things right, and it's not by chance.

Theeran · Post by **Theeran** » 03 May 2021 03:29

Philip wrote:If that is so,massive undercurrent against Dravidian parties, why are the results so? I studied inTN and experienced first-hand the anti- Hindi riots in the late '60s. On the contrary there is a v.strong dislike in general for the BJP seen as a north-Indian Hindi chauvinist party. Ask many AIADMK partymen. They feel that the tie-up with the BJP was a great mistake,ceding the Dravidian ethos and pro-Tamil leadership to the DMK and the results bear this out,as there was no strong anti-incumbency factor against EPS , who did a rather decent job as CM.

If the BJP is so popular in the state ,contesting 25 seats they should've won much more.
The fast-fading Cong. party contesting the same number of seats as the BJP, has done far better winning much more seats,16 vs 4!

Chennai is not the be all end all of TN. The vote difference is very low in a lot of seats. Even Durai Murugan won by just 750 votes. If bjp tie up was a problem admk would not have won in Kongu region.

Media was a big factor for the dmk win. The amount of lies they were able to get away with was unimaginable. The counter to that will take a long time. The ground work by bjp/admk in cbe, modakurichi, dharapuram and aravakurichi was very strong. Aravakurichi last election dmk won with a margin of 40000 (30000 peaceful votes). This time it was 5000.

So chennaites should keep their thoughts to themselves.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 03 May 2021 03:47

Kerala
Vijayan won because he is shrewd operator. He knows that gulf money is what sustains the state and party. He played well to those jihadi gallery.
1. Sabarimala, even though it was xtian inspired move, but he got widespread support from Muslims. If you can remember the rows of burkha clad women standing in his wall.
This made him no 1 enemy of Hindus and at same time darling of minorities. He went a little slow after the loksabha elections, so Hindus forgot it soon.
2. His daughters marriage to a Muslim is a strategic foresight. The Muslims completely backs him to the hilt. Any doubt on that is gone.
3. Covid: All the earlier issues of flood handling, sabarimala, gold smuggling etc were buried in this. His daily appearance on TV showed him to be the leader for crisis. The centre provided materials were converted into kits and provided to people. His people constantly reminded the m and ensured that he got their votes.
4. Media & Social media: it is full of vilification of BJP and anything Hindus. It is constant and without relent. Hindus are always on the back foot. So, most just side with them to avoid being called all kinds of names. This dehumanising will soon result in killing of many Hindus without anyone batting an eyelid.
5. Xtians also fell into anti-bjp mode, so much that Congress lost badly.
6. BJP leaders also couldn't do anything against this.

So, in the last few months, vijayan has done politically well to position himself.

sanjayc · Post by **sanjayc** » 03 May 2021 03:57

^^ All these Hindu communists, leftists and seculars sooner or later end up giving their daughters to Muslims. Sheila Dikshit comes to mind too - she had Muslim son-in-law.

Najunamar · Post by **Najunamar** » 03 May 2021 04:19

Theeran wrote: Chennai is not the be all end all of TN. The vote difference is very low in a lot of seats. Even Durai Murugan won by just 750 votes. If bjp tie up was a problem admk would not have won in Kongu region.

So chennaites should keep their thoughts to themselves.

Very true. If you look at VN Ravi's loss in Virugambakkam constituency, the vote difference was never large even in last 2016 Assembly elections (2333 votes), now it is 2781 votes in the other direction. However, there was a lot of people who left confused as the booth assignments were changed at the last minute, this level of FUD would not have mattered in pre-Covid times as people would be able to go to another booth quite easily. This time was different.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 03 May 2021 04:37

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 03 May 2021 05:03

vinod wrote:Kerala
Vijayan won because he is shrewd operator. He knows that gulf money is what sustains the state and party. He played well to those jihadi gallery.
1. Sabarimala, even though it was xtian inspired move, but he got widespread support from Muslims. If you can remember the rows of burkha clad women standing in his wall.
This made him no 1 enemy of Hindus and at same time darling of minorities. He went a little slow after the loksabha elections, so Hindus forgot it soon.
2. His daughters marriage to a Muslim is a strategic foresight. The Muslims completely backs him to the hilt. Any doubt on that is gone.
3. Covid: All the earlier issues of flood handling, sabarimala, gold smuggling etc were buried in this. His daily appearance on TV showed him to be the leader for crisis. The centre provided materials were converted into kits and provided to people. His people constantly reminded the m and ensured that he got their votes.
4. Media & Social media: it is full of vilification of BJP and anything Hindus. It is constant and without relent. Hindus are always on the back foot. So, most just side with them to avoid being called all kinds of names. This dehumanising will soon result in killing of many Hindus without anyone batting an eyelid.
5. Xtians also fell into anti-bjp mode, so much that Congress lost badly.
6. BJP leaders also couldn't do anything against this.

So, in the last few months, vijayan has done politically well to position himself.

BRF needs to have a section on reports from the ground. Because of the variegated and stratified mainstream society; a Dogra Hindu needs to know the issues of importance for a Malayalee or Saurashtrian etc. It is very difficult sitting in the west and, I imagine, not much better in India itself.

venkat_kv · Post by **venkat_kv** » 03 May 2021 06:34

Philip wrote:Bengal:
A stunning victory for Mamta,Nandigram defeat notwithstanding.I spoke yesterday to a close friend ,BJP ex-MP, who told me it would be a close fight. Why then this most unexpected result?

First,the high parliamentary voteshare % that the BJP got has fallen .It shows that the Indian voter more often makes a distinction between the two preferring the best man/woman and the party for PM and the best local leader and track record at the state level. Pollsters earlier said that the BJP / TMC reqd. an extra 2% increase to win. Losing voteshare scuppered its chances.

Secondly,the " one shoe fits all" all- India Hindutva campaign is unacceptable to states in a nation as diverse as India,especially those not in the " cow belt".Bengali nationalism,Dravidian pride overwhelmed the BJP's strategy in both states.In Kerala it has scored zero,losing its only seat and dropped voteshare.Kerala is a proud Malayalee first state too. In TN, the BJP has contested 25 seats but has been able to lead only in 4, 2 of which were strong sitting MLA AIADMK seats given to it .Its star leader Murugan who led the Vel yatra has come a cropper.
Only in Assam where it governed decently and an insipid Cong. with a late campaign lost, has it won comfortably.In Puducherry it is riding piggyback on a local strongman,ex- Cong. The stupid Cong. " high command", aka the dynasty, didn't even defend its outgoing CM who was prevented from executing many schemes by the former Lt.Gov. Kiran Bedi.It was war between them. Kiran Bedi after doing her alloted task well, was even presented with a special baton by the President! There would've been a certain degree of sympathy for him which went abegging.

Thirdly, campaigning in Hindi in non-Hindi speaking states by the PM,AS,Nadda,Yogi,etc.added insult to injury.They appeared as northern invaders. Amit Shah campaigned in Kanyakumari for former minister Pon R. in a Lok Sabha bypoll.He was trailing by over 1,10,000 votes a few hours ago! In Bengal no local strongman's name was announced as the CM.If Subendu Adhikari had been tipped as CM perhaps more seats would've been won.The fear of a Central govt. leader parachuted into Bengal as a Centre's puppet would've been in many voters minds,why a decent gent like Swapan Dasgupta has lost. In TN, AIADMK cadres were v.unhappy with their party's tie- up with the despised " Hindi" BJP.They were sure it would lead to a clear victory for the DMK. When I was in Chennai last month,that was the general feeling at the street level.

Prasanth Kishore on Ind.Today TV made a point that religious/ ethnic polarisation from his experience never crossed 55% whether it was Hindu voters or Muslims. A party will never get a huge voteshare based primarily upon this factor alone. This is something for psephologists to dwell upon.
In the Lok Sabha polls it was Mr.Modi vs Oppn. pygmies and their disunity,why he got such huge support from across the country.,wjo wanted a strong leader at the centre.

Kerala:
Bucking a 5 decade trend,the LDF increased its tally,the highest ever! Why.? That too the Left. Good governance is the answer. Even the gold smuggling scam couldn't stick to Pinnaryi. He diplomatically handled the Sabarimala issue not to offend Hindus. It gave as relief to every household a relief package with over 20 items inside. Even the supposed Muslim and Christian votebanks ditched the IML and the Cong. in Rahul G's constituency and scross the state. Again a distinction between central and state elections.

Therefore the moral of these elections is GOVERN WELL and you will be well rewarded. A nation as diverse as India,a veritable EU of the subcontinent, has millenia and centuries old diverse states where ethnic, linguistic ,cultural,caste, religious and traditions ( read Jallikattu in TNadu) that have their influences at election time.This underscores the need for strong LOCAL leaders,with cadres at the grassroot level,required for both state and central elections.The absence of such in the Congress party,in a rapid downhill decline is why it is doing so poorly, except in states like Punjab where Capt.Singh is a strongman.

Philip Saar,
the above post by you looks like an analysis for justification for what has happened after it has occured. the BJP lok sabha votes had a decent share of Left votes that wanted to teach TMC a lesson, now most of those have gone the other way to prevent BJP in the local elections. what is is this about a strong local leader.
Tamil parties always blame the north hindi leaders, nothing new. lets see how stalin rules the roost now that he has got elected. just 10 years ago they were resoundingly defeated for their corruption and crony linkages, now he is a strong leader all of a sudden?

Pinarayi has not deftly played the Sabarimala issue or gold scam. he has used the media to paint everything by the Centre to wash off his crimes. Nowhere will you find those who are subject to investigations say they are innocent. all of their statements start with some conspiracy by centre and running the same in their local channels. And the package that had twenty items inside for people was acentres package that had two to three additional things added and given with the commies stamp on it. if people don't know this then it tell you the difference between literacy and general awareness. Anyways based on Sachin Saar and hnair saar's analysis it would be interesting to see how Pinarayi will manage the state's finances after mucking up everything the last few years.

if anything this shows that if you can make constant memes, give locqal media a lot of money, spread false news, half truths, no matter how inaccurate, you can blame somebody else for your mistakes and get away with it. We have a strong leader in Mah, Ker, Punj, Raj, Telangana, Andhra, UP. but it didn't get rid of managing the covid wave in the country right. it takes a lot more than having a "strong man" image to solve problems.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 03 May 2021 07:02

Rsatchi wrote:It's no rocket science that Muslims voting enmasse to Didi as Left is a spent force and will not be able to form a gobermint!!
Reliance on Owaisi and other peaceful to break up the consolidation should be looked at henceforth!
The same could be very repeated in UP/Raj/MP/Mah
They have better network (through the Muezzin's call) to co-ordinate and the BIF'S/LIBERANDUS/LEFTIST will promote that in each of these states: SP in UP, Cong in Raj/MP/GUj, NCP in Mah.
My opinion : ditch this Sabka non-sense VHP to be revived and let loose on Kashi Temple movement will take about couple of years to gather steam.
That would steam roll all else in 2024
Mathura for 2029!!
These are time tested and regardless of PK/Soros et all too emotive to be defeated!!
All is far in love and war
Look at Didi's wheel-chair stunt in the nth minute. Looks like AS fell into that trap set by PK and also that video leak
BJP should stick by its cadres and stop giving seats to last minute 'Jumping the sinking ship' kinds

Sir,
Listen. Please don't say things out of frustration which can be a boomerang. I'm now piecing together a few facts which I have had experienced since January 2021.
1. At every rally TMC made it a point to heap blames on the center for the cooking gas and petrol price rise. When I started to defend this several of my friends and acquaintances stopped talking to me. True, these same upper-middle class people don't mind spending Rs. 500 for booze, but when the cooking gas price rises by Rs. 50 or the petrol goes up by Rs. 5 then all hell breaks loose for them. I wish the central govt had been a little bit more careful about this knowing fully that an important state election was due. This price rise found a sympathetic ear among many voters.

2. I must give credit to PK for having his ears set on the ground. He used this feeling of frustration on price rise very effectively..... Published reports say that PK was hired with a contract of RS. 400 crores. The hidden / actual figure might be twice that number. PK hired a large number of young men and women to do their hack job. Many common people don't know about this. One example: In early February a guy suddenly appeared at a pharmacy in an upper middle-class neighborhood of Kolkata...... That pharmacy doubles up as a neighborgood "adda" (gossip-mill). Every week this guy would start a conversation with topics like "This govt is selling everything, we will have nothing left... that's why air tickets are getting more expensive, etc etc...." I heard that the same was going on in a near-by community shopping complex too. This is a classic tactics used by RSS pracharaks in North Bengal which they have been doing for several years to get the people talking on contentious issues, especially in rural areas - bus stops, chai/paan shops, etc. So I think PK cleverly used the same method in urban and semi-urban areas very effectively.

3. Coming back to the above temple issue that Rsatchi-ji has mentioned, it would have a negative impact in the entire eastern India - Bengal, Odisha and the NE region. People would accept it only when they feel comfortable with the economic issues. Otherwise, the regional parties would use this as a weapon against BJP. I know the temple issue might get traction in Bihar, UP, MP, but not in east, unless a local/regional temple has been used for an effective campaign.

4. Anyway, Bengal has actually crossed a milestone - that is BJP is now the principal opposition, and the utopian left parties have been buried, hopefully for good, in saffron coffins. We just have to build further from here. With Shuvendu and Mukul Roy both elected now, and will hold the opposition fort in the assembly, they can easily cause more defection from TMC, and it is very very fearful of that. Already CBI and ED are in neck deep investigating several scandals against a few leaders, and things won't be easy for TMC.

5. Further, just within the last six months, under PK's directive, Mumtaz Banoo started several projects, - one of them being "Syastho-Sathi" (Health Friend), which is a state govt mandated health insurance. They issued nice creditcard looking health card too. There were huge lines in every neighborhood to sign up for this free health insurance. But the point is the health dept didn't allocated enough funds even to cover 5% of the total number of potential patients if they show up at private nursing homes/hospitals. There were cases whether private health centers refused to honor that card knowing fully that reimbursements will never come after the services have been rendered. But since it was the election gimmick TMC, using its muscle power, forced the hospital admins to accept the card at its face value. But now that the election is over, the fun will begin. Let us see how the WB govt makes the private hospitals accept this card, and/or come up with the reimbursement funds. This can be a potential source of public anger against the govt since the state exchequer is almost empty. BJP should seize this moment to build momentum and use the public anger in its advantage. In the state assembly there won't be any other dissenting voice but the BJP's.

So we are looking for an interesting time ahead.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 03 May 2021 07:18

Ambar wrote: Not at all. I was a subscriber and a regular contributor to his 5forty3 site when it was functional and give him credit for calling 2014,2019 general elections and UP assembly elections correctly , but he was wrong in calling MP, KAR, JH in the recent past and got DL spectacularly wrong in 2015 just like WB now.

The former carries far more weight. A LS general election is spread over 35 states and union territories. There was not one state or UT in which his predictions went awry. A VS election is broken down into small constituencies, and (again) the margins are much smaller than an LS election.

Remember these guys "predict" which way the wind is blowing well before exit polls are allowed by ECI, so if one is to ignore the poll predictions by experts then it questions the very existence of profession of psephology.

Sure, you are welcome to question it. No issues for me there.

Dr BB is pro-BJP and that is well known but he needs to set aside his political leanings while using cold rationale and analysis of on the ground data.

Many here are saying it was difficult to call because BJP lost over 100 seats by margin of <1000 votes, i atleast am not seeing that on the ECI site . Majority of the seats lost by BJP are >20k margin, so it is baffling how people like Dr BB were giving BJP 170 to 180 seats.

Like I said, it is possible a "fear factor" crept in.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 03 May 2021 07:22

LS 2024 is shaping up to be yet another strong NDA win.

As I have posted before, any losses in MH will be offset by WB. BJP now has the record of winning ~20 LS seats and ~80 VS seats in WB. TMC is not a governance party, it is a lootmaar party. These fellows will come a cropper in 2024, it is only a matter of time.

As for MH, I am assuming the MVA still exists by then and can mount a strong challenge. That very well may not be the case. Alliances and parties may look very different in MH in a year or so.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 03 May 2021 07:24

chetak wrote:You would be very surprised as to how many tamils in TN speak a rudimentary conversational hindi but will not admit to it publicly.

I am well aware of that, and have posted on it before. It is the same in KL. However, I disagree with the rest of your post.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 03 May 2021 07:26

Philip wrote:If that is so,massive undercurrent against Dravidian parties, why are the results so? I studied inTN and experienced first-hand the anti- Hindi riots in the late '60s. On the contrary there is a v.strong dislike in general for the BJP seen as a north-Indian Hindi chauvinist party. Ask many AIADMK partymen. They feel that the tie-up with the BJP was a great mistake,ceding the Dravidian ethos and pro-Tamil leadership to the DMK and the results bear this out,as there was no strong anti-incumbency factor against EPS , who did a rather decent job as CM.

If the BJP is so popular in the state ,contesting 25 seats they should've won much more.
The fast-fading Cong. party contesting the same number of seats as the BJP, has done far better winning much more seats,16 vs 4!

BJP contested 20 seats with 3 from Kanyakumari district which are mostly minority-dominated.

So 4 /17 is not bad and second in 4 more seats.

Question about the 81 seats in Bengal, how many Rajya Sabha seats is that?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 03 May 2021 07:28

Cyrano wrote:Wouldn't a voter from WB, TN, KL etc bé thinking on the lines of:

"Are BJP run states doing significantly better? On what parameters? Would those parameters matter to me?

Given that I can anyway benefit from all central run schemes, why should I vote for BJP despite their lack of local connect in my state?"

If BJP's response is "because we talk about hindutva and delivered Ram mandir, Art 370, triple talaak..." they will continue to struggle in state elections.

Have they released a state wise election manifesto? I havent seen it being discussed much here or in the media.

They do and go work in BJP states but vote for TMC and *DF parties in KL.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 03 May 2021 07:45

ramana wrote:
Philip wrote:If that is so,massive undercurrent against Dravidian parties, why are the results so? I studied inTN and experienced first-hand the anti- Hindi riots in the late '60s. On the contrary there is a v.strong dislike in general for the BJP seen as a north-Indian Hindi chauvinist party. Ask many AIADMK partymen. They feel that the tie-up with the BJP was a great mistake,ceding the Dravidian ethos and pro-Tamil leadership to the DMK and the results bear this out,as there was no strong anti-incumbency factor against EPS , who did a rather decent job as CM.

If the BJP is so popular in the state ,contesting 25 seats they should've won much more.
The fast-fading Cong. party contesting the same number of seats as the BJP, has done far better winning much more seats,16 vs 4!
BJP contested 20 seats with 3 from Kanyakumari district which are mostly minority-dominated.

So 4 /17 is not bad and second in 4 more seats.

Question about the 81 seats in Bengal, how many Rajya Sabha seats is that?

There are 6 seats coming up for re-election in 2023 in Bengal. So, I think the BJP can probably capture 2 of them [using the complex 1st preference, 2nd preference rules]. There are 5 more coming up for re-election April 2024, but it will be useless for this term. BJP should get at least 1 more in 2024 from Bengal, though.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 03 May 2021 07:46

ramana wrote:
Cyrano wrote:Wouldn't a voter from WB, TN, KL etc bé thinking on the lines of:

"Are BJP run states doing significantly better? On what parameters? Would those parameters matter to me?

Given that I can anyway benefit from all central run schemes, why should I vote for BJP despite their lack of local connect in my state?"

If BJP's response is "because we talk about hindutva and delivered Ram mandir, Art 370, triple talaak..." they will continue to struggle in state elections.

Have they released a state wise election manifesto? I havent seen it being discussed much here or in the media.
They do and go work in BJP states but vote for TMC and *DF parties in KL.

Over-generalisation, Ramana-garu. Bengalis in Bengaluru and Kozhikode vote BJP in big numbers. At the very least, support between BJP and Left is evenly divided in Kozhikode. Hardly any Bengali votes for Congress+, anywhere in the south.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 03 May 2021 08:15

guys you win some and you loose some!!
Even great Sachin Tendulkar did not hit 6 on all balls ...and he was out quite a number of times...
For BJP - perhaps data gathering can be improved. Things will be analyzed and improved upon.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 03 May 2021 08:50

In WB I think the main factor is the Left and INC deceided to sacrifice themselves completely which is a 1 time exercise, this will benefit BJP in 2024. Similarly, I think just blaming center will not work in TN. While it is short term defeat, I think these results will help in 2024 provided
1) Get the vaccination drive in high gear

2) We have 2 more seasons of good moonsoons.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 03 May 2021 09:02

Warning. The TOI in a report notes that in TNadu, rabble-rouser one Seeman,film director, who used to tout LTTE propaganda, most vociferous voice of Tamil nationalism ( against Dravidianism) , has garnered 8% of the popular vote,up from 4% in 2019! While winning no seats,coming 3rd. in many,this is a man to watch. He says," Cong. is the enemy of the Tamil community, while BJP is the enemy of mankind itself" ! His is the first party in the country to give 50% of seats to women.Reportedly has a strong following among educated youth,penetrating into " micro-communities". His performance surpasses those of TTV Dhinakaran and Kamal Hasan who came a cropper himself narrowly losing to the BJP candidate in Coimbatore.

As I said earlier, Tamil nationalism is on the rise in TN due to perceived anti-Tamil policies of the current govt. in Delhi.Even veteran BJP ex-minister Pon.Radhakrishnan, has suffered a huge defeat in a Kanyakumari by-poll, against the son of a sitting MP who died recently. One burning issue was the centre's proposal to establish an intl. container terminal in the district,vehemently opposed by local fishermen,already furious at hikes in gas and fuel prices,esp. on diesel. The Cong. claims that a sizeable no of AIADMK cadre unhappy with the BJP tie-up voted for their candidate. The winning margin a huge 1.4 lakh votes. Oil and gas exploration in the fertile Cauvery delta and the Sterlite issue ,where the centre's policies clashed with local sentiment v.strongly,saw the AIADMK/ NDA's fortunes sink.

In Bengal,the Bengali voter felt it was a waste of time and vote voting for the Cong and Left,who were left ( pun intended) in the dustbin of Bengali electoral history! This anti- BJP votebank gave a huge surge to Mamta's voteshare, one major reason why she's got that many seats.

The blankout in Kerala has come as a rude shock for the BJP hoping to make significant gains. Asinine seat strategy like fielding octogenarian metro-man Sreedharan in Palghat,a gimmick, backfired. This is a major problem with the BJP's central command, preferring " style over substance". You need " sons of the soil" with vigour and capability today ,plus a track record of political achievement,not professional,for older candidates. Pinnaryi a prime example, in order to convince the voter that his local issues will be swiftly seen to.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 03 May 2021 09:40

While I am as upset about the WB result, as the bulk of this forum, I think it was consistent with the assembly results of all other states since 2014. where the BJP was a serious contender. It's a point I have made in the past, on this forum.

In EVERY state assembly election the BJP has got a lower vote share than the preceding LS election for that state. (4% lower on average).
That is the problem the BJP has to fix. At the central level, it gets more votes since national issues matter more and there is no alternative to
Modiji. Neither premise is true at state level. The lower vote share at state level can be compensated for by better governance by BJP ruled states, but that is not happening - if one considers state GDP growth, or anecdotal evidence of my state - Karnataka.

WB was no different. Against 40.17% in 2019, BJP got 38.2% this time. That difference of 2.5% was actually BETTER than the other state assembly
elections, because there was some momentum in favor of the BJP since 2019. On the other hand, TMC gained about 4% over LS 2019.
A 9% difference in vote share in a 2 party fight, results in a landslide win.
In Assam BJP's vote share this time was 3.8% lower than LS 2019. In Kerala it was 3.7% lower.

The boost at the central level because BJP is seen as best in tackling national issues and the lack of an alternative to Modiji, can be completely neutralised, by anti incumbency. It will be a double whammy if a voter perceives that a BJP govt at state and centre both do not deliver.
Simplistically, BJP vote share =
Core voter (about 25% share) + Modi effect & best to tackle national issues + quality of governance.

This is something to be considered seriously, rather than just blame the voter, as many of us seem to be doing.

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 03 May 2021 10:45

i am also disappointed but the people have spoken. its time for Modi ji to shift from election mode to governance mode. they have 3 years to make radical changes.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 03 May 2021 10:51

Deans wrote:While I am as upset about the WB result, as the bulk of this forum, I think it was consistent with the assembly results of all other states since 2014. where the BJP was a serious contender. it's a point I have made in the past, on this forum.

In EVERY state assembly election the BJP has got a lower vote share than the preceding LS election for that state. (4% lower on average).
That is the problem the BJP has to fix. At the central level, it gets more votes since national issues matter more and there is no alternative to
Modiji. Neither premise is true at state level. The lower vote share at state level can be compensated for by better governance by BJP ruled states, but that is not happening - if one considers state GDP growth, or anecdotal evidence of my state - Karnataka.

WB was no different. Against 40.17% in 2019, BJP got 38.2% this time. That difference of 2.5% was actually BETTER than the other state assembly
elections, because there was some momentum in favor of the BJP since 2019. on the other hand, TMC gained about 4% over LS 2019. A 9% difference in vote share in a 2 party fight results in a landslide win.
In Assam BJP's vote share this time was 3.8% lower than LS 2019. In Kerala it was 3.7% lower.

The boost at the central level because BJP is seen as best in tackling national issues and the lack of an alternative to Modiji can be completely neutralised, by anti incumbency (it will be a double whammy if a voter perceives that a BJP govt at state and centre both do not deliver).
Simplistically, BJP vote share =
Core voter (about 25% share) + Modi effect & best to tackle national issues + quality of governance.

This is something to be considered seriously, rather than just blame the voter, as many of us seem to be doing.

It is not so much as blaming the voter but the fact that the ground situation is being misread time and again.

Has this got something to do with the quality of information gathering or are the people gathering such information being disingenuous and are either purposely providing inputs to suit specific local groups or are clueless and never had any real touch with the ground situation.

women voters are not easy to sway or convince. They take into consideration many factors that the men do not even know exist or if they did, did not appreciate it enough to think that it was an electoral parameter.

Today, even the poorest of women can be controlled by their menfolk only up to the entrance to the voting booth. Beyond that, they vote independently and sometimes very different to their menfolk. They don't speak up during surveys because that may lead to violence in their own families by their own menfolk.

If the women in bengal were with mumtaz bano in such large numbers, then the inputs on the ground gathered by the BJP simply did not capture this fact.

Here is where the role of the women RSS cadres may be able to play a decisive role in the gathering of voter sentiments on the ground and what exactly is driving them but at great personal risk to themselves.

On the forum, we believed what the BJP said which is a mistake. Of course, the BJP leadership has to and will always say that we will get a majority, we will win. This is standard election rhetoric, meant to enthuse the cadres and the local voters.

The BJP has never gone into an election with any other aim, other than total victory for itself and the complete decimation of its opponents. They have always gone all in, in each and every election that they have fought, as has been their nature right from the beginning.

PK seems to have developed a data gathering process that allows rank outsiders like him and his crews to tap into the pulse of the local voters and tailor strategy at mini and micro levels, assess preformance of incumbents and arrive at a workable process of analysis and decision making that provides a tangible indicator of the "winnability" factor.

The BJP may have erred in places by allowing such "TMC castaways" to join the party thus perhaps transferring the existing anger against the "TMC castaway" to itself

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 03 May 2021 10:54

When is the next set of assembly elections? 2022 - UP? 2023 - MP and RJ? Modi saar and the BJP don't seem to have much time to focus on governance, what with Wuhan still insisting on being an uninvited and unwanted guest.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 03 May 2021 11:00

I fear massive violence against not just BJP workers but perceived BJP voters everywhere in WB by TMC goons with WB pulis enablement.

Doubt center can do anything about it. We saw how federalism trumped justice in Palghar. We'll just have a palghar in every village or polling booth that went lotus this time, or so I worry.

Now if only doval ji could green light some sub-surface secret ops to neutralize a few TMC goons for every murder they commit, balance of terror can happen and our folks in WB can have some hope of surviving with life and limb intact over the next 5 yrs.

Only.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 03 May 2021 11:12

Deans wrote:While I am as upset about the WB result, as the bulk of this forum, I think it was consistent with the assembly results of all other states since 2014. where the BJP was a serious contender. it's a point I have made in the past, on this forum.

In EVERY state assembly election the BJP has got a lower vote share than the preceding LS election for that state. (4% lower on average).
That is the problem the BJP has to fix. At the central level, it gets more votes since national issues matter more and there is no alternative to
Modiji. Neither premise is true at state level. The lower vote share at state level can be compensated for by better governance by BJP ruled states, but that is not happening - if one considers state GDP growth, or anecdotal evidence of my state - Karnataka.

WB was no different. Against 40.17% in 2019, BJP got 38.2% this time. That difference of 2.5% was actually BETTER than the other state assembly
elections, because there was some momentum in favor of the BJP since 2019. on the other hand, TMC gained about 4% over LS 2019. A 9% difference in vote share in a 2 party fight results in a landslide win.
In Assam BJP's vote share this time was 3.8% lower than LS 2019. In Kerala it was 3.7% lower.

The boost at the central level because BJP is seen as best in tackling national issues and the lack of an alternative to Modiji can be completely neutralised, by anti incumbency (it will be a double whammy if a voter perceives that a BJP govt at state and centre both do not deliver).
Simplistically, BJP vote share =
Core voter (about 25% share) + Modi effect & best to tackle national issues + quality of governance.

This is something to be considered seriously, rather than just blame the voter, as many of us seem to be doing.

+1. Well said, sir. What is happening is that people are splitting their voting at the center and the state. What helps the BJP is the sheer incompetence of the opposition at the national level, but this may not last in 2024.

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 03 May 2021 11:15

Some takeaways for the BJP/RSS/GOI:

1) After 7 years of being the PM, don't expect him to win state elections for you. Develop local 1st, 2nd and 3rd tier leadership

2) In many states, especially ones with strong linguistic pride/regionalism, people want a "CM face". A strong leader that they can vote for. This RSS-strategy of not giving an indication of the CM candidate may work in some states but won't in many. Heck, even RSS/BJP uses "Modi's face" to canvass for votes. Most of the votes to the BJP are really those for Modi. Why wouldn't you do the same for states?

3) Regional BJP units must play the strong "regionalism" card but in a constructive way. Bengali pride, Tamil pride etc but rooted in the native Hindu ethos of the land. Its a harder game than the opposition because they can take "regionalism" to any extreme, including separatism. While the RSS/BJP cannot

4) Agitations: keeping issues alive when in opposition. Rallies, dharnas etc. Traditionally not a strong area of RSS/BJP.

4) Media: another weak area of BJP/RSS and unless drastic changes are made, will continue to be so. TN results are a product of Jaya's death & 10 years of Periyarist brainwashing via all mainstream media & SM

5) Education: once again a weak spot. Under 10 years of Modi sarkar, an entire generation of school children would have received a Hinduphobic education, while BJP just sat on it. A large chunk of these kids, once they reach the voting age, will not vote for BJP. I have personally heard the views of many of these CBSE/ICSE educated kids. Many don't even mind converting to Christianity and say that they aren't a big fan of Modi. The Hindu-hriday Govt has failed an entire generation, which is unpardonable

6) Start deportation in full earnest. Corollary: be willing to take the SC to the mat if need be. Make it clear to everyone that this is a red-line and will be not be permitted to be crossed.

7) Brutally do Hindu-polarization. Don't forget your own history: without the Ram-mandir polarization, BJP would've been nowhere. Scare the crap out of the normally lethargic Hindus periodically.

If you see, a couple of points above are political/organizational. The rest are civilizational.

AshishA · Post by **AshishA** » 03 May 2021 11:19

One thing we made a mistake a brf was the we were too sure of BJP's success. And based it on Dr BB's tweets. So much so that we were discussing about who should be chief minister and who should be ministers. This type of complacency can result in 2004 like situation. Hence, we must give be realistic and consider a possibility where BJP doesn't form govt. And various congress offsprings forming the govt. Like in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh. And we must always consider the dark possibility of a BIF gang led by or supported by congress coming to centre next time. And work towards preventing it.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 03 May 2021 11:36

Deans wrote:While I am as upset about the WB result, as the bulk of this forum, I think it was consistent with the assembly results of all other states since 2014. where the BJP was a serious contender. it's a point I have made in the past, on this forum.

In EVERY state assembly election the BJP has got a lower vote share than the preceding LS election for that state. (4% lower on average).
That is the problem the BJP has to fix. At the central level, it gets more votes since national issues matter more and there is no alternative to
Modiji. Neither premise is true at state level. The lower vote share at state level can be compensated for by better governance by BJP ruled states, but that is not happening - if one considers state GDP growth, or anecdotal evidence of my state - Karnataka.

WB was no different. Against 40.17% in 2019, BJP got 38.2% this time. That difference of 2.5% was actually BETTER than the other state assembly
elections, because there was some momentum in favor of the BJP since 2019. on the other hand, TMC gained about 4% over LS 2019. A 9% difference in vote share in a 2 party fight results in a landslide win.
In Assam BJP's vote share this time was 3.8% lower than LS 2019. In Kerala it was 3.7% lower.

The boost at the central level because BJP is seen as best in tackling national issues and the lack of an alternative to Modiji can be completely neutralised, by anti incumbency (it will be a double whammy if a voter perceives that a BJP govt at state and centre both do not deliver).
Simplistically, BJP vote share =
Core voter (about 25% share) + Modi effect & best to tackle national issues + quality of governance.

This is something to be considered seriously, rather than just blame the voter, as many of us seem to be doing.

It is not so much as blaming the voter but the fact that the ground situation is being misread time and again.

Has this got something to do with the quality of information gathering or are the people gathering such information being disingenuous and are either purposely providing inputs to suit specific local groups or are clueless and never had any real touch with the ground situation.

women voters are not easy to sway or convince. They take into consideration many factors that the men do not even know exist or if they did, did not appreciate it enough to think that it was an electoral parameter.

Today, even the poorest of women can be controlled by their menfolk only up to the entrance to the voting booth. Beyond that, they vote independently and sometimes very different to their menfolk. They don't speak up during surveys because that may lead to violence in their own families by their own menfolk.

If the women in bengal were with mumtaz bano in such large numbers, then the inputs on the ground gathered by the BJP simply did not capture this fact.

Here is where the role of the women RSS cadres may be able to play a decisive role in the gathering of voter sentiments on the ground and what exactly is driving them but at great personal risk to themselves.

On the forum, we believed what the BJP said which is a mistake. Of course, the BJP leadership has to and will always say that we will get a majority, we will win. This is standard election rhetoric, meant to enthuse the cadres and the local voters.

The BJP has never gone into an election with any other aim, other than total victory for itself and the complete decimation of its opponents. They have always gone all in, in each and every election that they have fought, as has been their nature right from the beginning.

PK seems to have developed a data gathering process that allows rank outsiders like him and his crews to tap into the pulse of the local voters and tailor strategy at mini and micro levels, assess preformance of incumbents and arrive at a workable process of analysis and decision making that provides a tangible indicator of the "winnability" factor.

many times, the incumbent TMC MLA or panchayati member has been replaced because no political value was seen in him continuing to represent the people of that constituency

The BJP may have erred in places by allowing such "TMC castaways" to join the party thus perhaps transferring the existing anger against the "TMC castaway" to itself

We often forget that bengal has been the longest standing BIF project in India and all else failing in their long quest to wrest calcutta away from India, jinnah's so called direct action day was a sign of their desperation.

those dreams are slowly being turned into a reality by people like mumtaz bano, whose long term motivations and objectives, one simply cannot fathom, and guys like badruddin ajmal in assam, both of these states, bengal and assam are vital frontline states.

beediland is mostly low lying as is the maldives. that is why the beedi "intellectuals" for the past few decades have started to pitch India as the lebensraum.

climate change will cause waters to rise and flood vast areas in beediland. At some point, they will all crossover to India. They are at present, meticulously laying the groundwork and are in the second phase of consolidating political power. Next phase is to have a major say in policy making at the state level.

money to the mamta family is being funnelled away abroad, coffers being filled by coercion, threats and extortion. Her nephew is already in the crosshairs and many accounts abroad have been traced to the family.

many maldivians have already started businesses in India, many are working in large companies in the metros, having obtained aadhar and all other government issued identity documents.

if you parachute idiots like swapan dasgupta straight into the electoral battle field, the clueless man can do nothing but lose. He is a perfumed and neutered elite, meant only for the RS and the swanky lootyen's drawing rooms. He brings to mind bertie wooster

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 03 May 2021 11:38

There is a difference between BJP losing vs BIF losing

When the BIF loses, the BJP is not ruthless. Their agenda continues, maybe a bit slower (example: conversions)
When BJP loses, its a civilizational setback. The BIF are ruthless in weakening Hinduism. Example: RTE, illegal Bangladeshis etc

That's why its important to employ Chaanakya-style ruthlessness when in power. The enemy must be ground to dust.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 03 May 2021 12:03

It looks like even the satta bazaar was rigged.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 03 May 2021 12:36

Philip wrote:
The blankout in Kerala has come as a rude shock for the BJP hoping to make significant gains. Asinine seat strategy like fielding octogenarian metro-man Sreedharan in Palghat,a gimmick, backfired. This is a major problem with the BJP's central command, preferring " style over substance". You need " sons of the soil" with vigour and capability today ,plus a track record of political achievement,not professional,for older candidates. Pinnaryi a prime example, in order to convince the voter that his local issues will be swiftly seen to.

Fielding E Sreedharan is not at all a bad move. If you see the voting rounds, you can clearly see he lost because of concerted effort to topple him and cross voting. Same story with Suresh Gopi.
BJP leadership in kerala has serious issues. There are plenty sons of soil in the party. You have to be politically smart and need people who can outsmart veterans like vijayan. They are fighting the whole machinary which is acting against them. You can't rely on just being a good person like suresh gopi or rely on past achievements and integrity like Sreedharan. You need a street smart thug to beat someone like vijayan.

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 03 May 2021 12:41

Kati wrote:
Rsatchi wrote:It's no rocket science that Muslims voting enmasse to Didi as Left is a spent force and will not be able to form a gobermint!!
Reliance on Owaisi and other peaceful to break up the consolidation should be looked at henceforth!
The same could be very repeated in UP/Raj/MP/Mah
They have better network (through the Muezzin's call) to co-ordinate and the BIF'S/LIBERANDUS/LEFTIST will promote that in each of these states: SP in UP, Cong in Raj/MP/GUj, NCP in Mah.
My opinion : ditch this Sabka non-sense VHP to be revived and let loose on Kashi Temple movement will take about couple of years to gather steam.
That would steam roll all else in 2024
Mathura for 2029!!
Sir,
Listen. Please don't say things out of frustration which can be a boomerang.

3. Coming back to the above temple issue that Rsatchi-ji has mentioned, I know the temple issue might get traction in Bihar, UP, MP, but not in east, unless a local/regional temple has been used for an effective campaign.
.

So we are looking for an interesting time ahead.

Katiji
The three states youi have mentioned : UP/MP/BIHAR send the maximum number to LS
I was not talking about state elections. I totally agree that Ram temple or other temple issues have little traction in WB. Imagine if ban on Durga puja processions by Didi did 'Didly Squat' for Hindu Consolidation then forget about temple issues.
Please read in context of what I had posted i.e., LS elections and LS these definitely matter not sure so much about Mathura but Kashi has Pan India ( minus NW/Bengal/Kerala/TN ) appeal
If you the electoral maths and a major hit the Hindi Heartland with some in the southern belt would cross 300 easily.
But carry on with the 'Sabka' BIF'S will defeat us!!
my two bit

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 03 May 2021 13:00

Shanmukh wrote:What are the big lessons in all this?
a) Hindutva needs to be connected to the people at the local level. It is not enough to do hand-waving from a distance.
b) BJP's organisational strength in Bengal is still not really on par with Mamata's. Organisation matters.
c) BJP in Bengal is not yet at the point where it can destroy a combined opposition. This has been achieved in Assam, and will be in Bengal in 5 more years, provided they focus.
d) Wearing saffron at election time is NOT sufficient. BJP is NOT entitled to Hindu vote. BJP needs to earn it, through connections to the people.

I had warned long ago that if BJP didn't implement the CAA and give citizenship to the Bengali Hindu refugees, they wouldn't get the refugee vote. Looks like my prediction was correct.

1) Agree with you about CAA, local-Hindutva and also sincere-Hindutva. BJP seems to use Hindutva like a birth control rubber. Use during elections & discard afterwards.

2) Regarding your other points about BJP needs to do this & that, I am pasting an image below. Even the slightest deviation from a perfect score would mean a defeat, because Hindus are argumentative drama-queens. OTOH, Muslims just need to be told who to vote for.

This is our bane, not just in WB but all over the nation. The problem is with both Hindus & the BJP.

kit · Post by **kit** » 03 May 2021 13:44

Paul wrote:What happened to Kamal Hassan? Did he win?

https://theprint.in/politics/kamal-haas ... du/649419/

Rishi_Tri · Post by **Rishi_Tri** » 03 May 2021 16:54

Lets get things into proper perspective:

BJP / NDA misjudged economy (till 2018) and has taken very sharp corrective actions since, BJP / NDA has faced CAA and Farmers protests, BJP / NDA has had to deal with the Tsumani of China Wuhan Virus, and the attendant immense hardship faced by migrating poor especially daily wage workers from poorest regions of India - UP, Bihar, Bengal, Assam, Odisha. Given all these, the odds would be against BJP big time.

Still ..

1. BJP / NDA wins Bihar,
2. BJP / NDA retains Assam,
3. BJP / NDA becomes the only opposition and strong one at that with 40% vote share in Bengal (BJP was nowhere in Bengal till 2014 elections with measly vote shares)
4. BJP / NDA picks up Puducherry and
5. gains seats in TN in a losing election, not a winning election.

Given what has happened over last couple of years, this is really taking hit after hit and still making it work. This is some achievement. BJP is now firmly established in East India (Assam, Bengal +) and TN is serious opportunity.

TN Identity and Dravidian politics being what they are, Free Temple Movement presents a whole different lever. Add to that the fact that Sterlite plant has been ordered open to supply Oxygen, TN politics shall not be the same if the 4 BJP MLAs make the most of opening.

I am betting on BJP making serious inroads into TN over next few years, afterall it was Ram Temple Movement that made BJP, BJP and Free Temple Movement can more than do the same in TN.

And Yes, Modi should impose President's Rule in Maharashtra sooner than later. The Maha mess has almost brought the whole country down. In fact the President's rule should have been imposed in Early March.

la.khan · Post by **la.khan** » 03 May 2021 17:56

kit wrote:
Paul wrote:What happened to Kamal Hassan? Did he win?
https://theprint.in/politics/kamal-haas ... du/649419/

The nicest thing about recent elections in TS, AP, TN is that the people have stopped electing film stars to public office. MK, MGR, JJ in TN and NTR in uAP ruled the roost.

Inspired by NTR, Chiranjeevi started PRP. He expected to sweep uAP in 2009 but barely managed 20 seats. Seeing an actor of Chiranjeevi mass appeal come a cropper, I don't think any Telugu cinema actor will venture into politics, to cash in on their charisma. Sure, Chiranjeevi's own brother, Pawan Kalyan's Jana Sena contested in 2019 AP assembly polls. He barely won 2-4 seats. I am glad people of TS & AP see through these "leaders".

Same case with TN. If an actor of KH stature can lose badly, what chance lesser folks have? People of TN have done well for themselves. And, that is welcome

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 03 May 2021 18:01

Did IPS Annamalai win in TN?
BJP going to 37% vote share in WB is a achievement. As a national party, they have more time. The time is to concentrate more on reforms now.
First thing is to Sack Nirmala madam. I personally feel she does as her policy makers and bureaucrats say and hence they are running in circles around her pushing their own agenda with zero accountability. All accountability is with the PM.
Another is to open minimum 200 hospitals with 200 MBBS seats each. One new hospital per Zilla is a must. Flood the market with doctors. The situation was same with IT seats but now there is no demand for them. Bring MBBS seats on similar lines.
Lastly, if they have to have some hope in KA, they have to sack yedyurappa and bring back some old guard. There were core BJP leaders like R Ashok who are sidelined for the new over the head generations. An Incompetent Home minister who is unable to control bangalore police is causing the corona spike since the police are unable to enforce the anti black marketeering of drugs and hospital seats and busy collecting money at the expense of govt good will.