2021 Five State Elections

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 02 May 2021 21:11

Bengal:
A stunning victory for Mamta,Nandigram defeat notwithstanding.I spoke yesterday to a close friend ,BJP ex-MP, who told me it would be a close fight. Why then this most unexpected result?

First,the high parliamentary voteshare % that the BJP got has fallen .It shows that the Indian voter more often makes a distinction between the two preferring the best man/woman and the party for PM and the best local leader and track record at the state level. Pollsters earlier said that the BJP / TMC reqd. an extra 2% increase to win. Losing voteshare scuppered its chances.

Secondly,the " one shoe fits all" all- India Hindutva campaign is unacceptable to states in a nation as diverse as India,especially those not in the " cow belt".Bengali nationalism,Dravidian pride overwhelmed the BJP's strategy in both states.In Kerala it has scored zero,losing its only seat and dropped voteshare.Kerala is a proud Malayalee first state too. In TN, the BJP has contested 25 seats but has been able to lead only in 4, 2 of which were strong sitting MLA AIADMK seats given to it .Its star leader Murugan who led the Vel yatra has come a cropper.
Only in Assam where it governed decently and an insipid Cong. with a late campaign lost, has it won comfortably.In Puducherry it is riding piggyback on a local strongman,ex- Cong. The stupid Cong. " high command", aka the dynasty, didn't even defend its outgoing CM who was prevented from executing many schemes by the former Lt.Gov. Kiran Bedi.It was war between them. Kiran Bedi after doing her alloted task well, was even presented with a special baton by the President! There would've been a certain degree of sympathy for him which went abegging.

Thirdly, campaigning in Hindi in non-Hindi speaking states by the PM,AS,Nadda,Yogi,etc.added insult to injury.They appeared as northern invaders. Amit Shah campaigned in Kanyakumari for former minister Pon R. in a Lok Sabha bypoll.He was trailing by over 1,10,000 votes a few hours ago! In Bengal no local strongman's name was announced as the CM.If Subendu Adhikari had been tipped as CM perhaps more seats would've been won.The fear of a Central govt. leader parachuted into Bengal as a Centre's puppet would've been in many voters minds,why a decent gent like Swapan Dasgupta has lost. In TN, AIADMK cadres were v.unhappy with their party's tie- up with the despised " Hindi" BJP.They were sure it would lead to a clear victory for the DMK. When I was in Chennai last month,that was the general feeling at the street level.

Prasanth Kishore on Ind.Today TV made a point that religious/ ethnic polarisation from his experience never crossed 55% whether it was Hindu voters or Muslims. A party will never get a huge voteshare based primarily upon this factor alone. This is something for psephologists to dwell upon.
In the Lok Sabha polls it was Mr.Modi vs Oppn. pygmies and their disunity,why he got such huge support from across the country.,wjo wanted a strong leader at the centre.

Kerala:
Bucking a 5 decade trend,the LDF increased its tally,the highest ever! Why.? That too the Left. Good governance is the answer. Even the gold smuggling scam couldn't stick to Pinnaryi. He diplomatically handled the Sabarimala issue not to offend Hindus. It gave as relief to every household a relief package with over 20 items inside. Even the supposed Muslim and Christian votebanks ditched the IML and the Cong. in Rahul G's constituency and scross the state. Again a distinction between central and state elections.

Therefore the moral of these elections is GOVERN WELL and you will be well rewarded. A nation as diverse as India,a veritable EU of the subcontinent, has millenia and centuries old diverse states where ethnic, linguistic ,cultural,caste, religious and traditions ( read Jallikattu in TNadu) that have their influences at election time.This underscores the need for strong LOCAL leaders,with cadres at the grassroot level,required for both state and central elections.The absence of such in the Congress party,in a rapid downhill decline is why it is doing so poorly, except in states like Punjab where Capt.Singh is a strongman.

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 02 May 2021 21:11

Even in stronghold places, sabka doesn't work well. Various actions by BJP clearly send the wrong messages where minorities continue to get limelight. For example, recent actions related to Bharuch hospital fire. Instant message sent to majority voters that their deaths aren't as important. On one hand I can't be coming to be awake knowing what has been done to me for centuries and then come to understanding of sabka. Just won't fit in brain as soon as I have roti and thinking about the next step.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 02 May 2021 21:16

This about sums it up

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 02 May 2021 21:24

Well, a mixed bag of results.

Good job wrapping up AS and PD.

TN: NDA has not done as badly as expected. Not sure how the BJP candidates are doing, but hopefully some of the 20 win and make presence felt in the assembly.

KL: The usual result at the end of the day. Only good thing is the Congis seem to have become very weak and have not been able to flip the state despite it being "their turn" this time.

WB: Disappointing that BJP cannot form the goremint. But the good outweighs the bad in my opinion. Going from 3 seats to 80 is a great result. Even better, the Left and Congis seem nearly cleared out from the electoral reckoning, so now BJP is the only opposition party in WB and has a strong presence in the legislature. From now the game changes. With the newly acquired organization (using TMC 'turncoats') it is now up to the state and central leadership to fight hard for a sweep in the LS 2024.

The TMC has really "got lucky" this time, as this was the election that made voters desert unwinnable commie and congi candidates and choose from 2 parties. Things will not be the same in LS2024 and VS2026. I don't think there was any complacency inthe BJP. More than 100 seats have razor-thin margins, that no polling methodology or prediction of any kind can predict. The wave was surely for change, but this change ran out of steam after it convinced commie/congi votes to make a binary choice.

And of course, humiliating MoMo Didi personally was a huge kick...!! This woman is a nut case and will have to go sooner or later.

Another few years of pushing and BJP will tip the balance. It's all eyes on LS2024 now.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 02 May 2021 21:27

Reading the last few pages even us armchair pandits who have all the time and no skin the game cannot come to a conclusion what is it that BJP needs to do ! Few say BJP abandoned Hindu causes and chased development and others say Hindu causes will not get you votes , govern well, and tell people what is it you are going to do to improve their lives. I think its a combination of both but i absolutely agree with Philip that in states with strong regional identities BJP will struggle unless they have charismatic local leaders and a long term plan. It took Mamata Bano 30 yrs to dislodge the left and 15 yrs after she formed her own party, don't expect BJP to come in , see and conquer states. Also here are two articles from before elections which should have given us a hint that not everything is well and rosy.

What went wrong are decisions like below :

https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news ... icks-seats

https://thewire.in/politics/nomination- ... -for-polls

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 02 May 2021 21:36

It's no rocket science that Muslims voting enmasse to Didi as Left is a spent force and will not be able to form a gobermint!!
Reliance on Owaisi and other peaceful to break up the consolidation should be looked at henceforth!
The same could be very repeated in UP/Raj/MP/Mah
They have better network (through the Muezzin's call) to co-ordinate and the BIF'S/LIBERANDUS/LEFTIST will promote that in each of these states: SP in UP, Cong in Raj/MP/GUj, NCP in Mah.
My opinion : ditch this Sabka non-sense VHP to be revived and let loose on Kashi Temple movement will take about couple of years to gather steam.
That would steam roll all else in 2024
Mathura for 2029!!
These are time tested and regardless of PK/Soros et all too emotive to be defeated!!
All is far in love and war
Look at Didi's wheel-chair stunt in the nth minute. Looks like AS fell into that trap set by PK and also that video leak
BJP should stick by its cadres and stop giving seats to last minute 'Jumping the sinking ship' kinds

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 02 May 2021 21:38

There is always a silver lining. Five more years and West Bengal will be closer to the bottom of the GDP per capita in India. As someone succinctly noted, its people (Hindus I suspect) will continue to seek jobs elsewhere whilst reserving their fortress for their compatriots.
Five years from now Bangladesh will be much wealthier than West Bengal, migrant Muslims in West Bengal, Rohingyas and also Indian Muslims will migrate to Bangladesh seeking greener pastures.

Bengal will be for Bengalis, damned intellectual they are indeed.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 02 May 2021 21:51

There are unconfirmed reports that Kamal Haasan has lost against BJP in Coimbatore South constituency. Recounting in progress.

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 02 May 2021 21:58

^^^If that's true then so much for his daughter/niece dancing in the street for votes

Truly his colour is not saffron

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 02 May 2021 22:01

Apparently twitter says Kamal won by 72 votes and BJP has demanded recounting. Conflicting reports are floating around.

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 02 May 2021 22:04

sanjaykumar wrote:There is always a silver lining. Five more years and West Bengal will be closer to the bottom of the GDP per capita in India. As someone succinctly noted, its people (Hindus I suspect) will continue to seek jobs elsewhere whilst reserving their fortress for their compatriots.
Five years from now Bangladesh will be much wealthier than West Bengal, migrant Muslims in West Bengal, Rohingyas and also Indian Muslims will migrate to Bangladesh seeking greener pastures.

Bengal will be for Bengalis, damned intellectual they are indeed.

That’s not how it works.

Shameek · Post by **Shameek** » 02 May 2021 22:07

Hinduism as a political identity and Hinduism as a religious identity are two different things. This may be one of the areas where the BJP failed to connect with voters in WB or even some southern states.
Take a snapshot of a ‘Bengali Hindu’ as an example: They worship Ma Durga, Ma Kali, Ma Saraswati, Ma Jagadhatri, Lord Krishna, Balaram and Subhadra at Puri and so on. But worshiping Lord Ram is not that common for them. Similarly eating non-vegetarian food is part of Bengali culture for ages and they do not consider themselves any less Hindu for it. To a fairly large number of this populace, the version of Hinduism/Hindutva associated with the BJP is purely a North Indian viewpoint and does not resonate with their beliefs. They come off as ‘outsiders’ trying to force their ways on WB. This is and will continue to be used by the TMC and others.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 02 May 2021 22:08

I never watched film "Love Story". Strange face as if someone has kept moustache on a girl's face. But film was a big hit. I never liked the guy. When I see his theatrics in politics, there is nothing else to add.

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 02 May 2021 22:09

My opinion : ditch this Sabka non-sense VHP to be revived and let loose on Kashi Temple movement will take about couple of years to gather steam.
That would steam roll all else in 2024
Mathura for 2029!!

Yeah ok. This will not help with state elections either. Indics have so many local, fundamental survival issues that this will not help as yet. It might help with Lok Sabha.
You can handle civilizational issues at a local level too which will have much greater impact as people will see and feel the change. Not shaking up tribals in Jharkand for forest land for 1000 lane highways (saw a video with Mr G), is an example (he was asking to remove forest officers - talk about????!).
Right now - protect the karyakartas. Create a protective wall

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 02 May 2021 22:12

Very unfortunate turn of events. The looting of the state by cut money and syndicate will now increase and the economy will suffer even more, if that is possible. But the people have spoken. Perhaps the only way of getting rid of Pishimoni is to make her the PM.
Gautam

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 02 May 2021 22:13

Similarly eating non-vegetarian food is part of Bengali culture for ages and they do not consider themselves any less Hindu for it.

Again, not accurate. Many people in WB are dietary purists. This is a tropical, water facing state so yes seafood and river food is eaten. Also the state went through massive famines so people made the most of what they can. However, the recent carnivorism that we see in states like WB and Kerala is a manifestation of years and years of left rule (yes MAmata is also left).
But it’s generalizations as made above that are really problematic. Many traditional Bengali families are purists. However, the next gen eats a lot of different stuff. The same is seen in next gen in Mumbai too. Or Bangalore for that matter.
It’s all about timing.
This is why you need local folks and not elites who live in their Bungalows while their kids are doing gender bender studies in some liberal arts college in the US.
The average personal in West Bengal is deeply religious and a purist when it comes to culture despite years of leftist rule. The next generation has become deracinated. That said, it was about establishing a connection with the person.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 02 May 2021 22:15

Kamal Haasan loses from Coimbatore South

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 02 May 2021 22:26

Ambar wrote: I think its a combination of both but i absolutely agree with Philip that in states with strong regional identities BJP will struggle unless they have charismatic local leaders and a long term plan

You summed it up well. Vikas is understood to be on all fronts with steadyness. Not development being exponential but with sporadic movement on civilization front. Similarly, Modi isn't enough. Yogi is also needed. If I'm Bengali voter, I'm asking myself if Yogi is coming or not. By Yogi, I mean his Bengali equivalent. As a voter, I'm looking to get mess cleaned with a bull dozer and not with Modi way. If Khujli is out playing you in Delhi, then it doesn't really inspire me. Similarly I look at MH and I see the survival. Not really inspiring me to vote as I don't see killer mentality. I need a cleaner and not builder.

Add Arnab like cases and I'm almost about done with surgical strikes. I want a bull dozer to clean it up. Then I'll get Modi the builder.

Rishi_Tri · Post by **Rishi_Tri** » 02 May 2021 22:54

Results as they stand right now:

Assam (126 seats) - NDA 78 (BJP 58, AGP 9), UPA 47 (INC 31), Others 1 ... CAA issue dead and buried now.

Bengal (292 seats) - TMC 209, BJP 81, Others 2 ... BJP up from 3 seats to 81 and is now firmly established in Bengal. Standard BJP formula to turn 2 or 3 seats into big presence. More than 100 seats would have been better, but way better to have 80 say Jai Shri Ram in assembly than 3 people.

Kerala (140 seats) - LDF 91, UDF 39 (INC 21), BJP 1 ... Same as last time.

Puducherry (30) - NDA 16 (BJP 6), UPA 8, Independents 6 ... NDA shall form this govt.

Tamil Nadu (234 seats) - DMK 133, AIADMK 68, INC 15, BJP 4, Others 14 ... more than a beach head in Tamil Nadu for BJP. NDA performance in TN not as bad as people thought. Combined with Puducherry, TN looks like the next big opportunity for BJP.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 02 May 2021 23:05

Bengal is 75 for BJP as per ECI. Another lesson from this debacle is to not take psephologists with political bias seriously. Its not the first time Dr Pravin Patil has been woefully wrong to read the ground reality. One can say the same about the garbage exit polls published on channels like rNDTV.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 02 May 2021 23:22

In the south where few know Hindi,"vikas, swatch bharat ( is it an Indian made Swatch watch someone asked me!), aatmanirbhar,maan ki bhatt ( sounds like monkey bath)", and so many central govt. schemes are completely lost upon the man in the street,many of whom are illiterate or semi- literate. Thus many well-meaning central schemes are unknown to the public.I was told by an irate friend in Chennai recently that some NEET stuff translated into 20- odd languages, has not been done inTamil! NEET he says is meant to prevent Tamil students from getting seats in medical colleges,etc. He said Modi only pays lip service to Tamils when he comes electioneering,he has no real liking for Tamilians. Thus states far away from Delhi speaking in other tongues feel alienated by the alleged attitude of the current dispensation. The days when I was a child ,cinema-goers stood up and applauded when Films Division newsreels showed our freedom fighters on screen is long gone. We knew almost every prominent freedom fighter by name, face and deeds even in the days without TV. Sadly the nation is resorting to tribalism today. The bond that held the diverse parts of India and its peoples together during the freedom struggle has lost much of its adhesion.

PS: Looking at the BJP results in the ssouth, in TN, it contested 25 seats.2 which it won were v.strong AIADMK seats it demanded and were given. The Dravidian ethos in TN is far too strong for the BJP to make real inroads in TN as the Dravidian identity is the antithesis of the BJP Hindutva identity. Both the Cong. and BJP, national parties , can best hope to ride piggyback on the backs of the 2 Dravidian majors.Remember that in the last Lok Sabha elections,thr DMK won 38 out of 39 seats in the state.

Srutayus · Post by **Srutayus** » 02 May 2021 23:50

PS: Looking at the BJP results in the ssouth, in TN, it contested 25 seats.2 which it won were v.strong AIADMK seats it demanded and were given. The Dravidian ethos in TN is far too strong for the BJP to make real inroads in TN as the Dravidian identity is the antithesis of the BJP Hindutva identity. Both the Cong. and BJP, national parties , can best hope to ride piggyback on the backs of the 2 Dravidian majors.Remember that in the last Lok Sabha elections,thr DMK won 38 out of 39 seats in the state.

As a Tamil speaker born and brought up
In TN, I vehemently disagree. The main thing that the BJP lacks is the ground level organization. There is a massive undercurrent of dislike for the so-called “Dravidian” parties. And a lot of people who would like to vote for the BJP if they could.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 02 May 2021 23:54

If that is so,massive undercurrent against Dravidian parties, why are the results so? I studied inTN and experienced first-hand the anti- Hindi riots in the late '60s. On the contrary there is a v.strong dislike in general for the BJP seen as a north-Indian Hindi chauvinist party. Ask many AIADMK partymen. They feel that the tie-up with the BJP was a great mistake,ceding the Dravidian ethos and pro-Tamil leadership to the DMK and the results bear this out,as there was no strong anti-incumbency factor against EPS , who did a rather decent job as CM.

If the BJP is so popular in the state ,contesting 25 seats they should've won much more.
The fast-fading Cong. party contesting the same number of seats as the BJP, has done far better winning much more seats,16 vs 4!

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 03 May 2021 00:03

As per wiki the BJP contested 20 seats in TN.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 03 May 2021 00:06

Jarita wrote:
Similarly eating non-vegetarian food is part of Bengali culture for ages and they do not consider themselves any less Hindu for it.

Again, not accurate. Many people in WB are dietary purists. This is a tropical, water facing state so yes seafood and river food is eaten. Also the state went through massive famines so people made the most of what they can. However, the recent carnivorism that we see in states like WB and Kerala is a manifestation of years and years of left rule (yes MAmata is also left).
But it’s generalizations as made above that are really problematic. Many traditional Bengali families are purists. However, the next gen eats a lot of different stuff. The same is seen in next gen in Mumbai too. Or Bangalore for that matter.
It’s all about timing.
This is why you need local folks and not elites who live in their Bungalows while their kids are doing gender bender studies in some liberal arts college in the US.
The average personal in West Bengal is deeply religious and a purist when it comes to culture despite years of leftist rule. The next generation has become deracinated. That said, it was about establishing a connection with the person.

The BJP doesn't give a rats about what anyone eats with the sole exception of beef

If you eat buffalo, pork, lizard or vulture, no one cares.

The BJP is not a party of puritanical vegetarians and never has been. ABA himself was a renowned trencherman with cosmopolitan tastes, as was jetlee who enjoyed entertaining everyone, especially in parliament. He always ordered food from well known and old reputed hotels old dilli. I am very sure that there were many nonvegetarians among those who enjoyed his more than generous hospitality

with the BJP guys, beef is a Hindu as well as a political thing, period. It gels with their cultural ethos and gives them an identity that is different.

Chaats, kebabs and prawns, gastronome Vajpayee loved a good platter

August 16, 2018

Bureaucrats who worked with Vajpayee said that wherever he went he insisted on tasting the local cuisine.

“So it was puchkas in Kolkata, biriyani and halim in Hyderabad, Galoti kebabs in Lucknow. He specially liked his pakodas with lots of chat masala accompanied with masala tea,” said one bureaucrat.

Those close to him recalled how he relished every meal he ate.

Another senior scribe told PTI that on numerous occasions he and his fellow journalists were treated to dishes cooked by the Vajpayee himself.

“He would cook at least one dish for us. It could be a dessert or something non-vegetarian,” she recalled.

A close aide said that Vajpayee used to pop in salted peanuts throughout Cabinet meetings and wanted his plate to be replenished each time it went empty.

While Lalji Tandon, known as his protege, was tasked to bring him kebabs from the Chowk area in Lucknow, Union Minister Vijay Goel brought him bedni aloo and chaat from Old Delhi. Vice President Venkaiah Naidu would bring him prawns from Andhra Pradesh, said a close aide.

A journalist who went on trips with Vajpayee recalled how he was the “most relaxed” PM she had ever travelled with as compared to his successors.

“For him these trips were not just about work. He was even not averse to the idea of extending trips. He ate his food and enjoyed, even while at work,” she recalled.

Another aide, recalled how, despite being unwell, Vajpayee would keep having kaju and samosas.

“He wasn’t spartan and he didn’t pretend to be one. That is why he was so loved,” he said.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4SfKC0Z18Bk

Atal Bihari Vajpayee's Favourite Dish Was Prawn Pepper Salt | ABP News

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 03 May 2021 00:16

Ambar wrote:Bengal is 75 for BJP as per ECI. Another lesson from this debacle is to not take psephologists with political bias seriously. Its not the first time Dr Pravin Patil has been woefully wrong to read the ground reality. One can say the same about the garbage exit polls published on channels like rNDTV.

Posts trying to blame psephologists is totally useless. Dr. BB has an excellent overall record. If you are taking poll predictions too seriously, that is your own issue, honestly.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 03 May 2021 00:18

Srutayus wrote:
PS: Looking at the BJP results in the ssouth, in TN, it contested 25 seats.2 which it won were v.strong AIADMK seats it demanded and were given. The Dravidian ethos in TN is far too strong for the BJP to make real inroads in TN as the Dravidian identity is the antithesis of the BJP Hindutva identity. Both the Cong. and BJP, national parties , can best hope to ride piggyback on the backs of the 2 Dravidian majors.Remember that in the last Lok Sabha elections,thr DMK won 38 out of 39 seats in the state.
As a Tamil speaker born and brought up
In TN, I vehemently disagree. The main thing that the BJP lacks is the ground level organization. There is a massive undercurrent of dislike for the so-called “Dravidian” parties. And a lot of people who would like to vote for the BJP if they could.

Yes, it takes time to build up the organization in large states. People think BJP just sailed into states like GJ, MP, UP, etc....it tooks years/decades of hard work and persistence. This will surely bear fruit in WB, TN, and even KL in the long term.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 03 May 2021 00:19

Take a walk down Park St. In Cal. The crowds of youngsters checking into the disco-bar at the Park Hotel, crowding the Wok this Way Chin cafe tucking into non-veg dishes with gusto shows you what the new generation of young Indians enjoy. International junk food chains and multiplexes with their carcinogenic items and popcorn are the bane of our youth today. But they love it....

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 03 May 2021 00:20

g.sarkar wrote:Very unfortunate turn of events. The looting of the state by cut money and syndicate will now increase and the economy will suffer even more, if that is possible. But the people have spoken. Perhaps the only way of getting rid of Pishimoni is to make her the PM.
Gautam

People will get what they voted for. Left/INC vote share transfer was certainly there, but not enough at all to explain the final results. I think there was a considerable "fear factor" among voters ("if we vote for BJP but they don't win, will we punished?" that did not get included in the calculations.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 03 May 2021 00:23

At this point, the BJP and the central goremint must make some hard decisions. WB is now a binary political spaces for practical purposes. It is now time to enforce the NRC and CAA in WB. It is legally binding on the state governments to cooperate. It is also time to pursue enforcement actions against corrupt TMC poltoos including MoMo didi.

Vips · Post by **Vips** » 03 May 2021 00:27

sanjaykumar wrote:There is always a silver lining. Five more years and West Bengal will be closer to the bottom of the GDP per capita in India. As someone succinctly noted, its people (Hindus I suspect) will continue to seek jobs elsewhere whilst reserving their fortress for their compatriots.
Five years from now Bangladesh will be much wealthier than West Bengal, migrant Muslims in West Bengal, Rohingyas and also Indian Muslims will migrate to Bangladesh seeking greener pastures.

Bengal will be for Bengalis, damned intellectual they are indeed.

With 774 Hindus leaving Bangladesh everyday for India,there will be no Hindus left in Bangladesh in 2 to 3 decades. Hopefully and presumably they will all settle in West Bengal. There are 14 Million Hindus in Bangladesh. If they have to leave Bangladesh due to persecution and settle in Bengal who will they vote for in the future?

Mumtaz Begum knows this and will oppose CAA tooth and nail to prevent the reverse flow of Hindus in Bengal.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 03 May 2021 00:30

vinod wrote:Astrology angle
He is predicting mamta win.
Modi and AS running bad period for now at least till Sept. After that they will be back with full force.

Whatever you say about astrology ... Narasinharao garu was on the dot with Biden/Trump prediction too. Result will be delayed. Biden will win. There will be a dispute etc. He said things will be settled by Dec which they did.

Hopefully he is right that Modi/Shah will be back into form after Aug/Sept.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 03 May 2021 00:37

KL Dubey wrote:
Ambar wrote:Bengal is 75 for BJP as per ECI. Another lesson from this debacle is to not take psephologists with political bias seriously. Its not the first time Dr Pravin Patil has been woefully wrong to read the ground reality. One can say the same about the garbage exit polls published on channels like rNDTV.
Posts trying to blame psephologists is totally useless. Dr. BB has an excellent overall record. If you are taking poll predictions too seriously, that is your own issue, honestly.

Not at all. I was a subscriber and a regular contributor to his 5forty3 site when it was functional and give him credit for calling 2014,2019 general elections and UP assembly elections correctly , but he was wrong in calling MP, KAR, JH in the recent past and got DL spectacularly wrong in 2015 just like WB now. Remember these guys "predict" which way the wind is blowing well before exit polls are allowed by ECI, so if one is to ignore the poll predictions by experts then it questions the very existence of profession of psephology. Dr BB is pro-BJP and that is well known but he needs to set aside his political leanings while using cold rationale and analysis of on the ground data. Many here are saying it was difficult to call because BJP lost over 100 seats by margin of <1000 votes, i atleast am not seeing that on the ECI site . Majority of the seats lost by BJP are >20k margin, so it is baffling how people like Dr BB were giving BJP 170 to 180 seats.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 03 May 2021 00:39

KL Dubey wrote:
Srutayus wrote: As a Tamil speaker born and brought up
In TN, I vehemently disagree. The main thing that the BJP lacks is the ground level organization. There is a massive undercurrent of dislike for the so-called “Dravidian” parties. And a lot of people who would like to vote for the BJP if they could.
Yes, it takes time to build up the organization in large states. People think BJP just sailed into states like GJ, MP, UP, etc....it tooks years/decades of hard work and persistence. This will surely bear fruit in WB, TN, and even KL in the long term.

It is not such a simple thing.

There is a very long memory of ill treatment and humiliation that the "north Indians" have heaped on them over the many decades past. The BJP is very much still seen as a party of the north.

there are some tall BJP/RSS guys who speak tamil. IIRC, The RSS chief himself speaks tamil. Why don't they ever address the tamil public in a non political setting, say on republic or independence day, for instance, and have that carried by DD

"madrasi", is even now, is a phrase that is derogatory and dismissive and their tamil script like all other south Indian scripts is called jelebi script by illiterate ignoramuses

there is a huge wellspring of resentment that has built up over the years that has resulted in this cultural suspicion as well as the imagined civilizational divide.

They see themselves as "dravidians" more to separate themselves from their oppressors whom it is easy to label as "aryan".

The tamils are well aware of the aryan invasion theory and all its fallacies but still choose "dravidians" to "other" themselves.

You would be very surprised as to how many tamils in TN speak a rudimentary conversational hindi but will not admit to it publicly.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 03 May 2021 00:58

Wouldn't a voter from WB, TN, KL etc bé thinking on the lines of:

"Are BJP run states doing significantly better? On what parameters? Would those parameters matter to me?

Given that I can anyway benefit from all central run schemes, why should I vote for BJP despite their lack of local connect in my state?"

If BJP's response is "because we talk about hindutva and delivered Ram mandir, Art 370, triple talaak..." they will continue to struggle in state elections.

Have they released a state wise election manifesto? I havent seen it being discussed much here or in the media.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 03 May 2021 01:49

vijayk wrote:
vinod wrote:Astrology angle
He is predicting mamta win.
Modi and AS running bad period for now at least till Sept. After that they will be back with full force.

Whatever you say about astrology ... Narasinharao garu was on the dot with Biden/Trump prediction too. Result will be delayed. Biden will win. There will be a dispute etc. He said things will be settled by Dec which they did.

Hopefully he is right that Modi/Shah will be back into form after Aug/Sept.

Wow. Can Narasinharao garu give me advice into which startups and companies I should invest in? The guy has a phenomenal record after all.

I can't believe people are falling for soothsayers. Eventually they will be correct like a broken clock is twice a day.

sanjayc · Post by **sanjayc** » 03 May 2021 01:54

From Twitter:

A thread on the voting pattern in border districts adjoining Bangladesh.

These districts have experienced a significant demographic influx due to illegal Mμslim immigration from Bangladesh and high M growth rate.

Due to this illegal Mμslim immigration, Hindus have been fleeing

Bhagabangola seat is a part of Murshidabad district bordering Bangladesh.

It once had 55% Hindus & 44% Mμslims (1872 census).

Migration from Bdesh changed demographics to Mμslim majority (66% in 2011).

No Hindu won since 1971.

Today they elect a man responsible for 2007 riots

Idris Ali was arrested in 2007 Park Circus Kolkata riots. He incited riots and targeted Hindu localities when Taslima Nasreen came to Kolkata

Today he wins this seat.

Ironically, no Hindu even contested. Even BJP fielded a Mμslim ex CPM candidate

This is same district that witnessed the brutal murders of the RSS worker and his family.

The case was hurriedly declared an unrelated property feud by the ruling state administration.

The same ruling state party which withdrew riot charges against Idris Ali & gave him a ticket

Raninagar is another seat in the Murshidabad district.

No Hindu candidate ever won in Raninagar.

No Hindu candidate even contested the seat in this election.

Even after BJP fielded a Mμslim candidate, it could hardly get 10% of the votes.

Abdul Soumik Hossain of Trinamool won

Hariharpara is another constituency in Murshidabad.

This place and its district administration celebrated independence with Pakistani flags in 1947.

No Hindu has ever won this seat.

Naimot Sheikh of TMC comfortably won today

Jalangi is another seat in Murshidabad

There was a huge influx of illegal immigrants here since independence.

No Hindu has ever won this seat since 1972.

Abdur Razzak who was formerly from CPI(M) contested this ticket from TMC and won this seat today.

Domkal is another seat in the Murshidabad district.

No Hindu has ever won this seat.

Even after BJP fielded a Mμslim candidate, it could hardly get 5% of the votes.

No Hindu has contested this seat in this election and Jafikul Islam of TMC won comfortably

"Mμslim population share increased from 55% to 66% but Hindus decreased from 44% to 33%"

Murshidabad census 2011.

But there is something the district census does not tell us.

With decrease in population share, the Hindus are experiencing complete political marginalization

What comes along with illegal immigration from Bangladesh border?

Of course. What else but têrrorism. It is a package.

In Murshidabad last November, 11 Al Qaeda têrrorists were arrested by NIA.

This is the state today of "border districts"

In February this year, NIA decided to press charges against 11 "residents" of Murshidabad for their alleged involvement in creation of "Al Qaeda Cell" in the district.

What else comes along with illegal immigration from Bangladesh?

Of course . The Sharia courts.

A Hindu man was beheaded by the order of a sharia court in Murshidabad because he fell in love with and married a Muslim girl.

The Hindu man fell in love with a Mμslim girl and married her.

They also had a child.

He concealed his identity as "Munnawar Shaikh".

But he was summoned to Sharia court. He was questioned and his identity was discovered. He was ordered to be beheaded.

Malda is another district bordering Bangladesh.

This district witnessed huge illegal immigration from Bangladesh.

Result?

The Mμslim population increased from 36% in 1961 to 51% in 2011.

Hindu population share decreased from 63% to 48%

Malda is now a Mμslim majority district

The pattern in Malda is the same.

Sujapur is a seat in Malda. There has been illegal immigration from Bangladesh & demographic change

No Hindu won this seat since 1962.

No Hindu contested this time.

Even as BJP fielded a Mμslim candidate, they could hardly poll 6% of votes.

Harischandrapur is another seat in Malda district.

There has been a migration of Hindus out of this place. The Hindu population here has decreased to 31% now.

Again, Tajmul Hossain of TMC won this seat.

Even BJP fielded M candidate who eventually lost

Malatipur in Malda is another seat which has witnessed huge illegal immigration.

The Mμslim population in this assembly division has increased to 72%

Abdur Rahim Boxi of TMC, who openly declared that his party flood West Bengal with Rohingyas, won this seat.

An observation in Malatipur.

Owaisi's party MIM contested this seat. Some people on SM claimed that this was "secret chess masterstroke" by BJP to divide Mμslim votes.

But Owaisi's party was not able to win even 1% of votes in a Mμslim majority seat.

The M voter is not a fool

After all this, Bengali Hindus rejected BJP in favor of TMC. How long before they flee to Delhi to live in tent cities, joining their equally blind brothers from Kashmir?

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 03 May 2021 02:27

Vips wrote:
sanjaykumar wrote:There is always a silver lining. Five more years and West Bengal will be closer to the bottom of the GDP per capita in India. As someone succinctly noted, its people (Hindus I suspect) will continue to seek jobs elsewhere whilst reserving their fortress for their compatriots.
Five years from now Bangladesh will be much wealthier than West Bengal, migrant Muslims in West Bengal, Rohingyas and also Indian Muslims will migrate to Bangladesh seeking greener pastures.

Bengal will be for Bengalis, damned intellectual they are indeed.
With 774 Hindus leaving Bangladesh everyday for India,there will be no Hindus left in Bangladesh in 2 to 3 decades. Hopefully and presumably they will all settle in West Bengal. There are 14 Million Hindus in Bangladesh. If they have to leave Bangladesh due to persecution and settle in Bengal who will they vote for in the future?

Mumtaz Begum knows this and will oppose CAA tooth and nail to prevent the reverse flow of Hindus in Bengal.

I think some of the minorities will self-deport.

It is understandable if Kerala and Tamil Nadu want to stay their course. I don't think it is because of Dravidian pride. Economically they are not basket cases, notwithstanding Kerala's Gelf remittance economy. But West Bengal is a case study in stagnation and in fact regression.

Further, the average Pakistani is not doing as well as the average Indian. BUT the average Pakistani is doing a lot better than the average Indian Muslim.

I do not know the ground situation in Bangladesh but at the rate West Bengal is falling behind, it will look like paradise for Muslims in WB soon enough.

sanjayc · Post by **sanjayc** » 03 May 2021 02:33

^^ You are assuming BD infiltration into India is purely due to economic reasons. It is actually religious -- such mass migration of Muslims to non-Muslim lands is called Hijra. It is used as a tool to increase their presence in lands of infidels and later stake claim to a part of that land. (It is the same reason why most Muslims who asked for Pakistan never went to Pakistan but stayed back in India.) BD infiltration into India is being actively facilitated by Bangladeshi intelligence as part of its dream of a Greater Bangladesh.

If WB deteriorates, BDs will not migrate back to Bangladesh. They will migrate deeper into India as Hijra is a pious duty. Why do you think no Muslim migrant from Tunisia, Algeria etc. migrates to better off Muslim countries in Middle East -- they all make a beeline to Christian nations of Europe. This is also the reason why no Middle East country will accept Muslim migrants -- they divert them to non-Muslim countries. Same way Bangladesh and Pakistan refuse to accept Rohingyas even though they are fellow Muslims -- Rohingays are quietly pushed into India due to pious obligation of Hijra. You have to read Muslim literature to understand their psychotic obsession with grabbing more and more land from non-Muslims by increasing number of Muslims in non-Muslim lands by a combination of Hijra and rapid breeding.

If you want to see this example of Hijra, they have just started this process in Uttarakhand. For those who understand Hindi, this will be enlightening from a man hailing from Uttarakhand: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4QJeStQnGs&t=688s

williams · Post by **williams** » 03 May 2021 02:42

Vote share for BJP so far:

Bengal - 38.1%
Assam - 33%
Puducherry - 13.1%
Kerala - 11.3%
TN - 2.6%

Not bad for a start. Now there is a need for better policy and political groundwork targeting these states. My opinion is that people are not going to vote for state legislature just with central govt schemes. What state govt schemes were promised and how much trust can be inculcated through local leaders is important. Even with Hindutva, there needs to be a local/regional version that inspires the local population. After all, Hindu ethos is all about embracing diverse cultural practices under the same dharmic umbrella. In TN for example BJP should be that party that preserves/respects and even promotes ancient tamil identity, since it is in fact one among the oldest Hindu identity. Even during the Mogul period this area held out the longest. I would have liked BJP standing on its own in TN. Just see how much strength it has as a party. I have a feeling the vote share would have increased if BJP stood alone.