2021 Five State Elections

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sudarshan
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by sudarshan »

Kati wrote:Irrespective of the CM face, the deputy CM will be (at least one of two possible) will be Shuvendu Adhikari who has had wrecked TMC from inside, and caused so much defection. He himself may be the reason behind BJP's 20 winning seats in the entire Phase-1 and Phase-2.

Let us see how things churn in the next four weeks before the judgement day on May 2nd.
Only phase 1 is done, phase 2 is on April 1st. Also, how do you know BJP won 20 seats?

Or are you talking about 2019?
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by fanne »

In first phase of 30 seats, BJP is sweeping, some sources say as good as 30/30. 26 of them is 100% sure, 2 others 90% sure and another two close(50-50), but could end up with BJP.
ramana
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by ramana »

sudarshan wrote:
Kati wrote:Irrespective of the CM face, the deputy CM will be (at least one of two possible) will be Shuvendu Adhikari who has had wrecked TMC from inside, and caused so much defection. He himself may be the reason behind BJP's 20 winning seats in the entire Phase-1 and Phase-2.

Let us see how things churn in the next four weeks before the judgment day on May 2nd.
Only phase 1 is done, phase 2 is on April 1st. Also, how do you know BJP won 20 seats?

Or are you talking about 2019?
He did not say 20 seats won already.
he said Suvendu Adhikari could be responsible for winning 20 seats in both Phase 1 and 2.

Let us not read more than required and start a firing match.

Weeks ago I said 200.
Still stand by it.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Kati »

Thanks Ramana-Saar, for clarifying my post.
Yes, the first two phases cover 60 seats mostly in the southwest/west of the state. My guess is BJP will win about 35 seats (a conservative estimate) of which Subhendu Adhikari is going to be instrumental in winning about 20 seats. .../ I have been following his election rallies, and he has taken upon himself a yeoman's job to cover about 5 to 7 mega rallies daily. Out of 60 seats in the first two phases, he has been consulted thoroughly by the party central leadership in vetting the candidates, and his own handpicked candidates are contesting in about 25 seats.
I have been watching his rallies, and I must give credit to his oratory skill; he is polished, suave, convincing, and mixes enough wits to enthrall the public.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by rajkumar »

https://twitter.com/kktotlani/status/13 ... 63624?s=20

Latest: Mumbai satta bazar is saying that BJP is winning in WB
-Phalodi Satta bazar which is considered as most accurate has predicted BJP to form Govt:
Cong+Left--13-20--Rate --0.28
TMC ------85-93--Rate--0.13
BJP---191-199--Rate--0.08
Lower the rate higher the Chance of winning
V_Raman
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by V_Raman »

Latest Pandey prediction for TN

ADMK+: 97
DMK+: 111
cantcall: 26
vijayk
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by vijayk »

https://swarajyamag.com/politics/assam- ... ons-on-caa

Assam Elections: How Himanta Biswa Sarma Deflated Congress Calculations On CAA
byJaideep Mazumdar-
Till even a year ago, effigies of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, state Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal and Assam Finance Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma were being burnt in many places in Assam.

Assam had been on the boil ever since the Citizenship Amendment Bill was introduced and taken up for discussion in the Lok Sabha in early December 2019.

The Assamese feared that the Bill, which was passed by Parliament and became an Act on 11 December 2019, would trigger an exodus of lakhs of Bengali Hindus from Bangladesh into Assam, thus causing more demographic changes in the state.

Assam erupted in anger and the state witnessed violent protests followed by total shutdowns. The state appeared to be sliding back to the stormy days of the seven-year-long Assam agitation when life was completely disrupted.

The influential All Assam Students’ Union (AASU) and many civil society organisations as well as prominent personas from the literary, academic and cultural spheres came out in open opposition to the Citizenship Amendment Act.

The Congress and the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) latched on to the raging protests and calls were given to boycott BJP leaders and functionaries and defeat the BJP in the 2021 Assembly elections.

The BJP in Assam was, naturally, put on the back foot and it appeared that the saffron party would face imminent defeat in the Assembly polls.

Loss of Assam would have dealt a huge blow to the BJP’s long-term plan of emerging as the prime political force in Northeast India and would also have meant a loss of face for the party’s central leadership.

Amidst the gloom that had set in the saffron camp, the party’s chief strategist for the region and the state finance minister Himanta Biswa Sarma assured the party’s central leadership that the anger against the CAA could be dissipated and the situation salvaged.

Sarma, widely acknowledged in the entire region as a clever political strategist, told the BJP central leadership that the widespread anger that was prevailing at that time against the CAA was based on misinformation and was being fuelled by opposition parties and anti-BJP groups and individuals.

The BJP central leadership, primarily Home Minister Amit Shah, with whom Sarma shares a good rapport, gave the Assam finance minister a carte blanche to douse the anti-CAA flames and script a turnaround in the party’s political fortunes.

Sarma correctly prescribed and started overseeing a massive campaign to educate the masses about the CAA and explain to them that fears about Assam being swamped by Bengali Hindu migrants from Bangladesh was completely unfounded.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by vijayk »

V_Raman wrote:Latest Pandey prediction for TN

ADMK+: 97
DMK+: 111
cantcall: 26
Hope it is in right direction.

Pappu working hard on selling Xian voters.
Prem Kumar
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Prem Kumar »

A Raja's nasty remarks about Edappadi's mother has left a bad taste in everyone's mouth. AIADMK, PMK & BJP are capitalizing on it. There are TV ads saying that AIADMK, BJP are pro-family & pro-women.

DMK is a party of thugs & uncouth misogynists. Stalin himself was a womanizer & accused of r@pes (which everyone knows happened, but kept hush-hush). Its the Anna, Periyar, Karunanidhi legacy. Hope TN women teach them a lesson.
V_Raman
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by V_Raman »

Raja and dingugal leoni remarks have blown up. SM influencers - maridas etc. are all over it. Pointing out the history of DMK and women abuse/dirty language even from MuKa times... Paarkalaam...
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by vijayk »

Used to follow this guy a lot for 2019 election.


https://twitter.com/Iam_Chintamani/stat ... 9372824584


Image

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Image

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vijayk
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by vijayk »

https://twitter.com/rishibagree/status/ ... 3519139840
Rishi Bagree Flag of India @rishibagree
The near empty ground in Mamata's Rally in Nandigram where public is seen leaving the ground as she was speaking compared to Massive Roadshow by HM @AmitShah in the same constituency settles the raging debate on who is an outsider.
Vips
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Vips »

vijayk wrote:Used to follow this guy a lot for 2019 election.


Image
If this scenario holds out then like the 3 unholy parties in Maharashtra came together, TMC, Khangress/Chinese left parties will unite to deny BJP the mandate to form a government in WB. :cry:
ramana
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by ramana »

V_Raman wrote:Latest Pandey prediction for TN

ADMK+: 97
DMK+: 111
cantcall: 26
Does he tell which 26 are can't tell?
Reason is another poster said he would tell me the tough fight ones.
Wonder if same
ramana
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by ramana »

V_Raman,
The range of 24-27 can't call seats are where the battle is.
Try to find those if possible.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by AkshaySG »

https://twitter.com/SureshNakhua/status ... 79362?s=19

Obviously can't be sure about its authenticity but someone managed to get a screengrab of PK's IPAC analysis of the first phase

According to their numbers its 23/30 TO BJP including Nandigram
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Kati »

Advantage BJP in Murshidabad district (where the Muslim population ranges from 50% to 80% over 22 seats).
Assaduddin Owaisi has entered the race. he is putting up candidates in 13 seats.

A must watch - his speech just a few hours ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47YpmGO8t9M
This guy is drawing large crowds already.
Kati
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Kati »

posting.php?mode=quote&f=1&p=2491673#

It is already known that at the grass root level CPM is helping BJP.
That's why it is said that "Baam'er (Left's) vote for Raam"
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by jaysimha »

After spending 40 years in the Indian Army, Lieutenant General Subrata Saha (retd) marches into the electoral battlefield as the BJP candidate from Rashbehari.

https://www.rediff.com/news/interview/b ... 210324.htm
disha
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by disha »

AkshaySG wrote: Obviously can't be sure about its authenticity but someone managed to get a screengrab of PK's IPAC analysis of the first phase

According to their numbers its 23/30 TO BJP including Nandigram
It could be FUD too. At the same time Nandigram seems to be turning.

https://swarajyamag.com/politics/ground ... -of-change

If JihaDidi (or Didler) loses nandigram, it will be a deep shadow on her carrier for the next 5-7 years. Of course she will lose national ambition bids, at the same time it will free up fighting the opposition (that is the CONgoons, Leftists and the Islamists).

Imagine two consecutive BJP government in W. Bengal and Assam from this point onwards and the path to GE cleared all the way till 2044.
Kati
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Kati »

Sri Shafiqul Islam of Arambagh TV is tearing up Mumtaaz Banoo's last minute campaign at Singur.
Looks like Mumtaaz is nervous and begging for blessings from the BJP candidate (who was in TMC just a few months ago) to help her turn the tide:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tsuF31LJpw4
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Sachin »

Meanwhile in Kerala...

Indian National Congress' state unit does some brilliant work. They have launched a web site 'OperationTwins' which lists out all the duplicate voters neatly categorised based on constituency (Sample). This list naturally would be given to the polling agents of the Congress (and perhaps others can also take copies of the same). The Congress had taken help of some experts, who perhaps have used some 'Face matching' programs to weed out the duplicates.

The sample is an interesting artefact, if you can understand. Same woman appear as X'ian at one place and Hindu in another. Instances of true 'communal & religious harmony' can be seen here :lol:. These can never be mistakes but a planned attempt to allow duplicate voting.

Kerala: How ‘Operation Twins’ unearthed bogus votes
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/arti ... aign=cppst
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Kati »

It's barely 11am, second phase of voting is underway in WB.
So far, cast of vote percentage - ranging from 27% (South 24 Parganas) to 41% (West Midnapore). .. . . . roughly average 34%.
Looks like it may cross 85% by the end of the day.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Yagnasri »

Such a large % of voting means we may be seeing massive anti TMC voting.
Prem Kumar
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Prem Kumar »

I wouldn't put too much weight on voting %. WB had a high voter turnout in their previous assembly election too.

Plus in 2019, there was an unprecedented voter turnout, which turned out to be "pro-incumbency"!
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by jaysimha »

TD merges with BJP, Naidu finalises deal
https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/ ... -deal.html
A political analyst said, “Readers must carefully look at today’s date. They would realise the right conclusion to come to is April Fool’s Day.”
:)
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Larry Walker »

Prem Kumar wrote:I wouldn't put too much weight on voting %. WB had a high voter turnout in their previous assembly election too.

Plus in 2019, there was an unprecedented voter turnout, which turned out to be "pro-incumbency"!
Capturing booth and then casting all votes in favor of one party in connivance with local authorities is not same as unprecedented voter turnout
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by VinodTK »

jaysimha wrote:TD merges with BJP, Naidu finalises deal
https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/ ... -deal.html
A political analyst said, “Readers must carefully look at today’s date. They would realise the right conclusion to come to is April Fool’s Day.”
:)
Wonder if this is true or fake news, not much reporting on this other then DC
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Ambar »

Lots of allegations and counter-allegations in Nandigram. Many Hindu voters are saying muslim mobs in several areas are stopping them from voting, and in one polling station Mamta Begum herself has pulled a chair and is sitting on it since morning ! Now how this clear violation of EC rules does not automatically disqualify her is beyond me. On the other hand TMC is alleging EVM malfunctioning in many polling booths, and Derek O'Brien is alleging BJP cadres entering and attacking TMC workers in 7 polling stations .
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by srin »

jaysimha wrote:TD merges with BJP, Naidu finalises deal
https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/ ... -deal.html
A political analyst said, “Readers must carefully look at today’s date. They would realise the right conclusion to come to is April Fool’s Day.”
:)

April 1st, saar
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by vijayk »

Ambar wrote:Lots of allegations and counter-allegations in Nandigram. Many Hindu voters are saying muslim mobs in several areas are stopping them from voting, and in one polling station Mamta Begum herself has pulled a chair and is sitting on it since morning ! Now how this clear violation of EC rules does not automatically disqualify her is beyond me. On the other hand TMC is alleging EVM malfunctioning in many polling booths, and Derek O'Brien is alleging BJP cadres entering and attacking TMC workers in 7 polling stations .
I am sure she pulled all her BD and Rohgniya mobs as a last stand. You can see the brazenness of this filthy political garbage
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by kvraghav »

They should do re election in many booths of Nandi gram wherever there was even small amounts of complaints. Keep her busy and rooted there.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by KL Dubey »

VinodTK wrote:
jaysimha wrote:TD merges with BJP, Naidu finalises deal
https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/ ... -deal.html

:)
Wonder if this is true or fake news, not much reporting on this other then DC
It's Deccan Chronicle....hard to tell apart the Apr 1 news from their usual news.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by KL Dubey »

https://twitter.com/ayodhyagolikand/sta ... 29/photo/1

And Dr. BB's update below. He clearly has a team on the ground in WB.
Dr Praveen Patil
@5Forty3
How can any serious political analyst or consultant believe that BJP won't cross double-digit tally in Bengal?

BJP is already inching towards half century!
And it is just the 2nd phase in an 8-phased election!!
Only 60 seats have voted so far (i.e) over 75% strike rate!!!
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by vijayk »

Image

Coupta is angry with Kerala Xians and church ... are they tilting to BJP?
vijayk
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by vijayk »

Swapan Dasgupta
@swapan55 Mar 28
The grapevine suggests that the outcome from the Phase 1 constituencies in West Bengal may exceed the BJP’s initial calculation. We could be looking at BJP winning 26 of the 30 seats. The news is already filtering to the other areas where polls are due.
Dr Praveen Patil @5Forty3

If you want to know what is the practical difference between the Sangh and the Left-Secular ideology, all you have to do is visit Assam & Bengal for 2 days.

In Assam there is near ZERO local corruption,
Whereas every village, town & city in Bengal is totally 100% corrupt! (1/3)
Dr Praveen Patil @5Forty3

From Awas Yojana to Kanyashree to all the way down to NREGA, everything in Bengal has a cut fee

Many of these govt. schemes are DBTs where money is directly transferred to beneficiary accounts, but then the poor are forced to withdraw money to pay cuts to local TMC bosses! (2/3)
Dr Praveen Patil @5Forty3

In Assam, for over 2 years now Sangh volunteers & local teams have been travelling to every village to independently verify if anyone has paid any bribe to local leaders, thus near zero local corruption

This is why you feel proud when they call you a "Sanghi" or a "Bhakt"! (3/3)
Just to co-relate, I am posting this video from Politics thread

vijayk
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by vijayk »

Pradeep Bhandari(प्रदीप भंडारी) @pradip103

After being on the ground since morning with my team & covering significant no of booths in #Nandigram, I can tell U with confidence that Nandigram can create history because voters have voted decisively. #BengalElections
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Sachin »

vijayk wrote:Coupta is angry with Kerala Xians and church ... are they tilting to BJP?
Kerala X'ians is not a monolith, and have their own caste system and also various factions/sects. Traditionally most of the X'ian sects are pro-Congress. But off late the 'on the face' religious aggression of the peacefool community, and both CPI(M) and Congress ignoring that and acting 'secular' have prompted many X'ians to become more supportive of the BJP. The X'ian sects especially the ones which have very long (centuries old) ties with Kerala, have very much adapted & co-existed with Kerala Hinduism would be the first to actually tilt towards the BJP.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by hnair »

Sachin wrote:
vijayk wrote:Coupta is angry with Kerala Xians and church ... are they tilting to BJP?
Kerala X'ians is not a monolith, and have their own caste system and also various factions/sects. Traditionally most of the X'ian sects are pro-Congress. But off late the 'on the face' religious aggression of the peacefool community, and both CPI(M) and Congress ignoring that and acting 'secular' have prompted many X'ians to become more supportive of the BJP. The X'ian sects especially the ones which have very long (centuries old) ties with Kerala, have very much adapted & co-existed with Kerala Hinduism would be the first to actually tilt towards the BJP.
Here is my assessment to a private group:
There seem to be a Kerala Schism 3.0 (if we consider the Koonan Kurish uprising against Portuguese terrorists as ver 2.0) happening among Kerala christians

- kerala RoL seem split between vatican-supremacy and Eastern Orthodox

- All three vatican oriented catholic factions (syro malabar, syro malankara and latin) seem slowly moving enmasse towards left and leaving behind the Congress, with the numerically largest syro Malabar(led by alancherry) and second largest led by soosa pakiam (coastal, latin catholics) etc seemingly *very* happy around pinarayi. The most businesslike and un-dogmatic one is Cleemis of syro-malankara who seem to be sitting on fence, but seem to go with one in power or probably come to power

- Trio of Eastern Churches (Jacobite, marthomite and malankara orthodox) seem split with Jacobites and marthomites more amenable to BJP. The Malankara Orthodox folks (most numerous of three) seem split with one side having backing of BJP while the other side is backed by left in Kerala. Cong, which used to be their goto party rather over night, found itself out of all reckoning

- the desert origin religions all seem to nurture a proclivity towards obedient worship of powerful messiah/heros/warlords. Right now they see two, the powerful kannur warlord who till now have been vilified as godless by the kerala church clergy and an even greater conqueror of Delhi who has been vilified, but does believe in a heathen form of supreme being :lol: Things can get confusing to the simple binary minds of the believers

- in the meantime, the predatory EJs are proliferating among the laity, while nibbling all of these churches down to the bones with their Amway approach (inspired by lepers spreading their disease) for pyramidal model soul reaping. As alancherry found out, massive landholdings can cause birth of powerful internal enemies, but the EJ churches seem to keep their holding fragmented and less visible. Cunning
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