2021 Five State Elections

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ramana
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by ramana »

Kati wrote:Was expecting this .....since Mumtaaz had been extremely subdued for the last two weeks.

Her right hand person, her man-friday Firhad ("Bobby") Hakim has been arrested by CBI.
Other TMC top leaders have been asked to show up.
She won't move till she is arrested!
How can she move if she is arrested?
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Pratyush »

A Deshmukh wrote: Can you add the 2014 & 2019 LS election data?
This will show that BJP vote share declined from 2019 to 2021. This was a surprise and what spoils the BJP story.
And a worry.
BJP story is still good, but the decline shows how much challenging it will be.

Additionally it is not enough to get 40-42% vote share, as in LS.
Going forward BJP needs 48%+ vote share. The mountain just became steeper.

Amit Shah sometime before 2019 had stated that going forward the elections in the country would be a 2 party fight.

We are just observing the first manifestation of this scenario.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Neela »

A Deshmukh wrote:
Neela wrote: Key takeaways .
-Both CPIM and COngress are spent forces.
-It was not that the BJP performance was good. It was actually fantastic. From 10% to 38% in 5 years. That is close to 300% increase vs 2016. In 10 years, they have come from nowhere (3% voteshare in 2011)
- but but but TMC was better. From 44% 2016 to 48% in 2021. That was the difference.
Can you add the 2014 & 2019 LS election data?
This will show that BJP vote share declined from 2019 to 2021. This was a surprise and what spoils the BJP story.
And a worry.
BJP story is still good, but the decline shows how much challenging it will be.

Additionally it is not enough to get 40-42% vote share, as in LS.
Going forward BJP needs 48%+ vote share. The mountain just became steeper.

Will do. but will have to wait for the weekend.
if there is any other data needed , let me know.

--------------
Gents, one thing. Dont loose hope. The Corona Pandemic is a dent alrignt. I cannot predict how big ofa dent it will be in the future.But PM is focusing just on one thing - saving lives. All the media spin & gloom aside, state CM's have abdicated all responsibility & taking the easy way out. This leads to one thing and one thing only psychologically - there are no national challengers to Namo. Everyone is now focussed on protecting their own turf. Whether it is WB , TN KL AP or RJ. The only concern I have it protecting the voter base.
3 more years to 2024.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Kati »

Many TMC followers, including a large number of peacefools, have gheraoed Nizam Palace, the regional CBI HQ. They are trying to break the metal barrier and enter the building. In other places also TMC thugs are burning tires, creating a mess in the middle of a lockdown.
Total breakdown of law and order.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by sooraj »

Megh Updates Police cars revolving light
@MeghUpdates
Protestors trying to Break into CBI office , Nizam Palace , Pelting Stones ; Central Forces Put on Full Alert
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Pratyush »

sooraj wrote:Megh Updates Police cars revolving light
@MeghUpdates
Protestors trying to Break into CBI office , Nizam Palace , Pelting Stones ; Central Forces Put on Full Alert
Could we be so lucky to have this the start of total collapse of the law & order situation. With governor's rule not far behind.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Ashokk »

West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee starts dharna at CBI's Kolkata office
The CM demanded that she too be arrested as she protested at Nizam Palace. :roll:
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by ramana »

Well CBI court gave bail.
Calcutta High Court stayed the bail.
Reason given was wrong impression of mob rule led by CM at CBI court and by Law Minister at High Court to the people.

So most likely the focus moves to Supreme Court.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Kati »

ramana wrote:Well CBI court gave bail.
Calcutta High Court stayed the bail.
Reason given was wrong impression of mob rule led by CM at CBI court and by Law Minister at High Court to the people.

So most likely the focus moves to Supreme Court.
The four heavyweights will be in Presidency Jail till Wednesday. What CBI does in these two days is going to be extremely critical. Probably each of these four gents will be interrogated in front of the others for cross referencing.

But I was expecting the bigger case to come forward, that is the coal and cattle smuggling (to BD) cases which happened under the nose of the "nephew" by his trusted man Binay Mishra. That ill-gotten wealth is keeping the TMC machinery functioning.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Kati »

May be this is just the beginning of true "khela".
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by ArjunPandit »

Kati wrote:May be this is just the beginning of true "khela".
mark this post..it will be prophetic..quite similar to the khela in J&K
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Sachin »

Kati wrote:The four heavyweights will be in Presidency Jail till Wednesday. What CBI does in these two days is going to be extremely critical. Probably each of these four gents will be interrogated in front of the others for cross referencing.
What I have observed in similar cases. Generally CBI would make a detailed questionaire and interrogates each individual separately. And then CBI officers regroup and find gaps in the stories. And then again question the culprits individually focusing on the gaps. The final round is the collective questioning (where perhaps they allow all of them to get heated up and start blaming each other :lol:). The days of brutal thrashing in the lock ups are now pretty much over.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by darshhan »

ArjunPandit wrote:
Kati wrote:May be this is just the beginning of true "khela".
mark this post..it will be prophetic..quite similar to the khela in J&K
My request to BJP would be to actually do something instead of indulging in this khela or that. There is nothing chanakiyan in getting your workers killed and tortured for sympathy. Will never work in West Bengal.

Although I doubt if BJP has the guts to do anything substantial. Would love to be proven wrong.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Yagnasri »

@Ramana

Sirji, the elections are over and this discussion can be done in other thread opened for political discussions. Please close this thread.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by chanakyaa »

Rahul M wrote:...At the end of the day, it came down to who wanted to win more badly, TMC was desperate to win the AE, much more so than in the GE, which is a sideshow for them. For the BJP it was a nothing to lose election, the desperation to win was absent, except may be in the top two. That showed in how the two parties approached the elections...
Two nice posts on the WB numbers and looking forward to the third post. First of all on numbers, you are correct that they tell good story in support of TMC. For TMC, it was a question of "survival"....period. It wasn't the case for the BJP. Wonder if there is any reliable data on those 15-19 age cohort in terms voting preferences as they aged and became eligible to vote. Census suggests that the group represents as high as ~9-10% of pop. Not suggesting that the group alone can swing elections, but the population of peacefuls is likely going to be higher in that age group.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by ramana »

Yagnasri, Waiting for Part 3 of RahulM analysis.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Kati »

Total chaotic situation in WB.
While the Covid caseloads are rising each day, the state is in total paralysis, TMC thugs resorted to vandalism on the arrest of four of their heavyweights. All the social distancing has gone for a toss as thousands of TMC followers congested in front of Nizam Palace (CBI regional HQ).

Kolkata HC is hearing the case whether to grant bail. CBI has already filed a caveat at the SC if the HC verdict in not favourable. Citing the TMC vandalism, CBI has asked the HC to shift the case out of the state. On the other thand, TMC has filed an FIR against CBI at a city police station.

State governance has come to a standstill.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Rahul M »

ramana wrote:Yagnasri, Waiting for Part 3 of RahulM analysis.
Parts 3 and 4 sir.
Please bear with me, work pressure is killing. Next one in the weekend.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Rahul M »

Neela wrote:
Rahul M wrote: More rumours will come, like the ones that said BJP lost 100 seats by less than 1000 votes. All such rumours are just that, floated to take the attention away from the party's underperformance.
If there are that many Rohingya candidates what does it say about the central govt that it is not doing anything about it? Either the central govt is incompetent or we are fools to believe these rumours.
Image
Image

MahulR-ji ...I spent 1 hour collecting WB data for last 4 elections. Focussed only on vote share %.
All data from ECI.
Key takeaways .
-Both CPIM and COngress are spent forces.
-It was not that the BJP performance was good. It was actually fantastic. From 10% to 38% in 5 years. That is close to 300% increase vs 2016. In 10 years, they have come from nowhere (3% voteshare in 2011)
- but but but TMC was better. From 44% 2016 to 48% in 2021. That was the difference.
--------------------
On a parallel note, huge warning signs are written everywhere for Dharmiks. In WB. Also in AP.
YSRCP MP Raghu Ram Krishna Raju suffered 3rd degree torture in AP for speaking against conversion sponsored by state ( misuse of caste certificates ) . All regional parties have put conversion on high gear to break the consolidation of Hindus.
Sorry Neela ji, I had missed this. That graphic is very misleading.
You need to compare with 2019 data which I posted, not 2016 when BJP had given a walkover to TMC (that's another story).
In WB VS elections follow LS elections after 2 years. If you look at the LS-VS elections as pairs, the LS trends always strengthen considerably in the VS elections. It's there for 2004-2006, 2009-2011, 2014-2016. BJP is the first party in 20 years to buck that trend and reverse the gains of 2019.
2021 was there for the taking, I have posted the relevant numbers in Part I. I don't know what to call a result that not only failed to achieve that but lost by a 10% margin.
Comparison with 2016 voteshare is a consolation prize at best, in the highest traditions of 90's Indian cricket team, who specialised in losing winning matches. :)
If that's the standard we expect I have nothing more to add.
You know who would be happy with such a result ? Congress.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by darshhan »

Frankly speaking BJP supporters and their IT cell started drinking their own kool aid. It was plainly evident to many that things were not that rosy for BJP in West Bengal. The Bengal elections are first and foremost fought on streets and villages. Only after you win here, you will be victor on Polling booth.

By the way this is what I posted on 29th october 2020

viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7788&start=8120#p2467313
"Life of these foolish it cell cowards will pass only in exposing the anti hindu activities of TMC/Shiv Sena/congress/kerala cpm etc. Fool stop exposing and actually do something to defend hindus. You are in power now. When congress or other secular parties come to power they distribute arms licences to muslims. You can actually check the data on this one. When BJP comes to power, Amit Shah makes the arms act even more stringent.

The most sorry part is that BJP cadre can't even protect its own cadres. Forget about avenging. I have been a BJP booth agent/worker myself in 3 elections both for lok sabha as well as state legislative elections. Doubt if I will volunteer again.

I also have sincere doubts if BJP has what it takes to win Bengal. I have lived in West Bengal including rural areas for some time and have some really good friends over there. Mamta didi will just kill so many that any resistance would become worthless and Bengalis would vote her back in instead of supporting BJP losers."
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by darshhan »

What BJP has done in WB will fall in extremely irresponsible category. Infact I would classify it as outright criminal and callous category. It knew very well that deposing Mamata using Gandhian techniques would be next to impossible especially considering her unpredictable and violent behaviour in the past. BJP could have very well chosen to make some sort of agreement with Mamata di whereby it could have focussed more on lok sabha giving free pass to TMC in vidhan sabha like in Orissa under Naveen Patnaik. But they had to screw their own workers, supporters and ordinary Hindus like this. On top of it such cowardly behaviour from their top leaders who were no were in sight once the violence began. Instead of NRC, they have done reverse NRC. Jisko bhagana tha usko to bhagaya nahin, ulta bengali hindus ke liye Aur katthin paristithi banaa di.

What next for Bengali Hindus? I would advise them to stop depending on BJP. BJP is as Hindu as I am martian. Instead remember Gopal Patha and Bagha Jatin and start emulating them. The sooner the better for every Bengali Hindu and for that matter every other Hindu Citizen of Bharat.

As far as BJP West Bengal unit is concerned they will be successful if and only if they give full freedom to local leaders like Suvendu da. But as per my experience this will not be done, hence I doubt BJP will come to power in WB any time soon.

I speak all this since I have stayed in WB for quite some time including the interiors and had some amazing friends there with whom I am still in contact.
Last edited by darshhan on 20 May 2021 21:39, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by kvraghav »

darshhan wrote:....
Mamata ministers are getting arrested and she might be next in Narada scam. Also if BJP had some deal with her, it would mean systematic erasing of Hindus with zero opposition. Sometime i don't understand what you might be wanting here? You say BJP does not take any action in Gujrat but when they do in WB, you save they should have had a truce instead.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by ramana »

Rahul M wrote:
ramana wrote:Yagnasri, Waiting for Part 3 of RahulM analysis.
Parts 3 and 4 sir.
Please bear with me, work pressure is killing. Next one in the weekend.
Sure. No rush. Do a thorough job of analysis.
We often lack tight analysis.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by darshhan »

kvraghav wrote:
darshhan wrote:....
Mamata ministers are getting arrested and she might be next in Narada scam. Also if BJP had some deal with her, it would mean systematic erasing of Hindus with zero opposition. Sometime i don't understand what you might be wanting here? You say BJP does not take any action in Gujrat but when they do in WB, you save they should have had a truce instead.

If you understand West Bengal politics, you will know that using Central agencies to fix state govt is not going to win over the masses. The need of the hour was and is that BJP leaders actually do the leading on ground and respond to the violence.

And if you do have to interfere in state govt using Central govt, then go straight for President's rule using article 356. These half hearted measures like using CBI to arrest some ministers is not going to cut it here.

Looks like BJP is permanently in Chess playing mode forgetting that there are times where you need action. Plain action and not some vague chanakiyan move.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by kvraghav »

Sorry, you cannot build muscle overnight. Using central agencies, the BJP will get some muscle to cross over and from there move in. It worked for Mamata because of nandigram. Else commies would still be ruling. Unless there is a event like nandigram, it is very difficult to throw out any govt in WB. So Mamata model cannot be followed by BJP unless they get a Nandigram like moment.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Kati »

My 2 paise:

Apart from all other suggestions and criticisms, what is needed most for WB BJP is to "win and hold" the ground.
1. As per 2019 GE, BJP was ahead in 121 assembly seats, and the question is - why did it lose many of these seats?
2. On the other hand, TMC, definitely using the state machinery, was able to win away many of the above seats.
3. Once BJP wins a particular seat/area, the strategy should be to use this win to build the "infrastructure" in that local level, and then use it to expand in the neighboring areas.
4. While interacting with several people, this is what I was told - BJP has 18 MPs, why don't they use their MPLAD and other influence to strengthen the party at the grassroot level? True, TMC has created a huge mercenary force by giving generous dole-outs to local clubs, but what is preventing BJP from doing the same? It appears that some state BJP leaders were totally complacent with the 2019GE results, and didn't expect TMC, under PK, to claw back successfully. Hence it should be a wake up call for the state unit.
5. When the ordinary BJP workers are getting killed the state leaders are busy giving statements about atrocities sitting in the comfort of the party HQ. Why didn't they visit the spot, and to draw attention to the plight why didn't they sit for 'dharnas'? Also, why not the state unit declaring some monetary compensation to the families of the party workeres who have been killed by the TMC peacefool thugs?
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Kati »

The rumor on the street is that the arrested four heavyweights (now out under house arrest) is just a minor 'khela'. The major 'khela' is going to be getting hold of the bigger fish against whom more critical evidence is supposed to come from these four heavyweights. Ultimate target is the "nephew".
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by darshhan »

Kati wrote:The rumor on the street is that the arrested four heavyweights (now out under house arrest) is just a minor 'khela'. The major 'khela' is going to be getting hold of the bigger fish against whom more critical evidence is supposed to come from these four heavyweights. Ultimate target is the "nephew".
The source of these rumors is BJP IT cell itself in most of the cases to give the impression that BJP is actually doing something and to prevent the rapid plummeting of the morale amongst BJP supporters.

However I doubt if average BJP worker and supporter on the street really cares about these long term chess moves especially when he is about to be hanged to the nearest tree.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Maria »

Nomoskar bondhus and pranams to all the Garus! This is Deborishi finally reporting in from Tank for active duty thanks to BRAdmin action.

Moving in central forces to prop up karyakartas on the ground, as @kvraghav mentioned, will just be perceived as BJP muscling in without popular mandate. As Bengalis, we need an existential challenge to spring up again before people like Gopal pantha and Bagha Jatin arise in our perception, solely due to their need.

I also think that Namashudras are very important in tilting the balance towards us, as someone said here we got their men but could not swing around their women. In any Hindu-Muslim riots, they usually bear the brunt of the fighting and themselves are ferocious fighters.

Give or take 5 years, Bengal will be back in the Dharmic fold.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by darshhan »

deborishig wrote:Nomoskar bondhus and pranams to all the Garus! This is Deborishi finally reporting in from Tank for active duty thanks to BRAdmin action.

Moving in central forces to prop up karyakartas on the ground, as @kvraghav mentioned, will just be perceived as BJP muscling in without popular mandate. As Bengalis, we need an existential challenge to spring up again before people like Gopal pantha and Bagha Jatin arise in our perception, solely due to their need.

I also think that Namashudras are very important in tilting the balance towards us, as someone said here we got their men but could not swing around their women. In any Hindu-Muslim riots, they usually bear the brunt of the fighting and themselves are ferocious fighters.

Give or take 5 years, Bengal will be back in the Dharmic fold
.
Much needed for bengal itself and Rest of Bharat too especially Eastern states. Bengali Hindus need to realise that there is no other option than to militarize and warriorize. Better fight than to live in refugee camps
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Maria »

^ + 108

If the Khalistanis, bhaiwood and Jihadis could organize blatantly with our robust intelligence mechanisms watching, so can we for protecting our way of life and our freedom.

I am not sure of the exact policy of this forum, however, in my opinion, a great Indian civil war is around the corner as I reside at ground zero and I am mighty pi$$ed at what I see everyday:

- deracination of the last sanctuary of Bengali Hindus
- Syndicates operating openly with TMC cadres doubling up as land sharks
- love jihad without fear (old bhadraloks would grumble about it however they do not have the cojones to organise a fightback)
- drugs! Watch out for 'Udta Bengal' soon. Youth from the local clubs have started smoking up openly without fear
- of course the appeasement which has been discussed to death here

- Last but not the least and most dangerously, rising undercurrents of 'Bengali' separatism - a very real threat that is being promoted in a hushed manner by the Witch's cronies here

However, all is not lost. There's also a rising resentment among many young men and women who are not outrightly Sanatanis in their outlook but will not tolerate insults to our motherland, day after day. These good people will be the footsoldiers of the war against the organised BIF here in Bengal.

My last on this before SHQ and roti rozi duties get the better of me - I am thoroughly disappointed with the BJP here. I paid online a donation of Rs. 100 for party membership and even got a suave .pdf/.jpeg file to post on my Socials. To my dismay, that was about it. No one called me and when I tried reaching out to them with the help of the numbers, I got disinterested people who were non-Bengalis (not an issue to me but could be to someone else) answer the phones only to never revert again. Maybe, I was at fault for sitting on my thumb however the last time, I did nothing for us by hoping people more intelligent than me would swing things around. It gets more clearer to me by the day, that "If you want something done, do it yourself".
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by AshishA »

There's a need for a organization to promote and defend our way of life. If floating a new organization is difficult then the existing ones must be modified to suit our needs for the both present and future.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by ramana »

Welcome DeborishiG.
Thanks for your perspective. Be safe and do post.
Ramana
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Maria »

Thank you Ramana garu, pranam!
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by ramana »

Kati, Debrishi, RahulM

What have you heard about money flow in West Bengal elections?
What were voters paid?
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Maria »

Ramana garu, I do not have the necessary information - will need to conduct more research. However, please consider an eyewitness account of an incident from my end so that I can reinforce a gut feeling that I want to convey.

Polling was to be held at a school around 100 m away from my location. I was at my local chaiwala's shop when I saw around 15 men emerge out of the school at around 4:30 in the evening. 8 were TMC (most of them were from my padda and I could recognize them), 5 were Kolkata Police and 2 were officers of the BSF (clearly discernable from their camo and their shoulder IDs). Surprisingly, there was no one from the EC around (I am pretty sure of this). I guess the lower ranked BSF troopers were left in the school to guard the equipment and sensitive paperwork.

It was clear that the BSF officers were hobnobbing with the TMC cadres and I overheard one say that the local incumbent MLA from the TMC is going to win by 40,000(~) votes if my memory serves me right. He was dead confident of this result.

On polling day, there was absolutely no crowd for my SHQ and I didn't have to stand in a long que. There was an even stronger contingent of BSF guarding the polling premises and the perimeter including the entrance to the school. On this day, the TMC thugs were hiding in plain sight, around 100 metres away from the school. For us, voting went very peacefully.

Coming to my hunch, I have no doubt that there some collusion between some of the CAPF force heads and the ruling party. I just don't have enough information to back this up. I am happy to proven wrong here. I am not trying to defame the entire force but is there a chance that corrupt elements remain/have not been identified after Modi's/Shah's purges and they played a part in the narrow defeats where the margin was in the hundreds?

Did MAD sincerely cover and game all the stages of the elections holistically? This includes the rallies, deployment of the CAPFs/EC personnel, polling and counting? I have my sincere doubts.

In the aftermath, I now see the local Bahubalis talking to Ministers on their phones, I guess they have been moved up the chain. TMC ignored us completely since my SHQ and her folks were converts from the CPM. There was no BJP roadshow here and neither did anyone visit us.

Question - is there any code of conduct that prevents any trooper/officer from the Central Armed Police Forces from socializing with any member from a contending party?

Ultimately, it is sad how the Dharmic forces couldn't game the elections like the bad guys because of Dharmic notions of fair play. Remember what happened to the Shahis when barbarians poisoned the water with beef at Kabul, many centuries back? No fear, we have 5 years to cover the gaps for a Dharmic return here.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by darshhan »

Deborishi ji, what is the scene with Hindu samhati these days. After the demise of Tapan Ghosh Da last year, not much news about them. Missing him already. They are the ones with skin in the game unlike Amit shah and Jp nadda.
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by Maria »

They simply don't have the political acumen of the BJP/RSS combine, they are still political amateurs. While they have branched out in the East, they do not have shakas in all constituencies of Bengal. I am also not very happy with their messaging, pitting non-Bengalis against Bengalis. While their thought process is a product of RSS - where most of their members are from, I feel promoting Bengali chauvinism will lead to a Shiv Sena like monstrosity - we all saw what it led to at the end, i.e. Shiv Sena aligning with the Congress.

Disclaimer - I am not against an alternative to the BJP, however I need it to be an Hindu alternative. Where is the Hindu Mahasabha of lore today? Weakened and run by loonies (please correct me if I am wrong).
vijayk
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by vijayk »

darshhan wrote:Deborishi ji, what is the scene with Hindu samhati these days. After the demise of Tapan Ghosh Da last year, not much news about them. Missing him already. They are the ones with skin in the game unlike Amit shah and Jp nadda.
If my info is correct, Tapan Da passed away last year with COVID.
arshyam
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Post by arshyam »

^^ Didn't he announce support for MB sometime before he passed away?
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