2021 Five State Elections

[prasan]

https://swarajyamag.com/politics/bengal ... ApzP7kqknk

.If Mamata Banerjee wins the West Bengal election for a third consecutive time, the state’s Muslims can look forward to five more years of business as usual: state administration appeasing the regressive elements within the community while mouthing platitudes to 'secularism

[KLNMurthy]

Swapan Dasgupta is not CM material.

the leadership is not too enamoured of him.

He had a string of demands and the very first one was that he be made Indian high commissioner to the UK. This was soon after the BJP won the 2014 elections.

thereafter, he kept cribbing and was given some very lucrative company directorships and in spite of that, he kept whining for more.

and finally there came a time when he was told to piss off.

he seems to have started pushing again.

Once again, I pray that Swapan Dasgupta be kept out of any position of power. He is a brown sahib, though he happens to be on the Hindutva team.

[dsreedhar]

Most recently TMC guy Dinesh Trivedi resigned from RS. That made big news. Wonder what his role is going to be?
WB needs someone like Yogi in UP, clean, tough, firm and also have ability to rally people.

[chetak]

Most recently TMC guy Dinesh Trivedi resigned from RS. That made big news. Wonder what his role is going to be?
WB needs someone like Yogi in UP, clean, tough, firm and also have ability to rally people.

don't think that many outsiders are destined for big roles in the BJP in bengal with maybe just some exceptions of the likes of suvendu adhikari

dinesh trivedi resigning from the RS could also have been tactical to save his own neck before the ax fell.

He was never a favorite of mumtaz bano anyway.

In the end, they are all like the rats deserting a sinking ship

she may have planned to kick him out publicly and he may have pre-empted it by doing what he did

the BJP will have its hands full in preventing scams like cut money from continuing. 4-5 decades of ingrained bad habits of bengal MLAs will not be cleansed in such a short time.

The state cops are also very much among the bad guys.

[Kati]

Most recently TMC guy Dinesh Trivedi resigned from RS. That made big news. Wonder what his role is going to be?
WB needs someone like Yogi in UP, clean, tough, firm and also have ability to rally people.

don't think that many outsiders are destined for big roles in the BJP in bengal with maybe just some exceptions of the likes of suvendu adhikari

dinesh trivedi resigning from the RS could also have been tactical to save his own neck before the ax fell.

He was never a favorite of mumtaz bano anyway.

In the end, they are all like the rats deserting a sinking ship

she may have planned to kick him out publicly and he may have pre-empted it by doing what he did

the BJP will have its hands full in preventing scams like cut money from continuing. 4-5 decades of ingrained bad habits of bengal MLAs will not be cleansed in such a short time.

The state cops are also very much among the bad guys.

True.

A lot of our eastern border matters depend on BJP's possibility of coming to power in WB. Lt. Gen. Subrata Saha is contesting the Rashbehari constituency, and if he wins, as I mentioned before, a lot will fall on his shoulder to manage the int'al border.
So far his campaigning is going smoothly, and in an unconventional way. Instead of big rallies, he is relying on Surgical Strikes - i.e., visiting slums, housing societies, market complexes, and holding small gatherings with 100 to 500 people. He is comfortable in this style, and getting good responses from locals who are also thrilled to see a military Bhumiputra coming to their doors. (As such bongs are not used to have the culture of military personnel coming to meet them, as opposed to singers, artists, journalists, doctors, advocates, etc.)

Let me point out a constant headache India is having quite a sometime. Look at the north bengal map - see where the mighty Teesta river enters
northwest Bangladesh from Jalpaiguri district of north bengal. Itenters Bangladesh's Nilphamari and Rangpur districts. As such this area of Bangladesh is not well developed as the south. China has given a proposal to set up an industrial park in that area, set up chinese manufacturing units with their engineers. They have proposed to develop thousands of acres with agro industrial units too. This has alarmed India as it will a han ploy to snoop over the vital military installations in the chicken's neck area. India has conveyed strong concerns to Hasina govt which is maintaining a studied silence on this matter.

[Kati]

WB election: 180 seats have been contested so far in the five phases.

State BJP's assessment (third round) sent to the central leadership is projecting 114 seats out of 180. This is based on booth-level analysis.

So 34 more to kill before the much anticipated power shift.

Even if we assume a 10% error margin in the above assessment, then the party must secure another 45 seats out of the remaining 114 seats
in the next three phases. Not impossible, but Phase-8 with 35 seats will be a huge challenge for the party.

[Prem Kumar]

A BJP win in WB will be tectonic & much needed, no doubt.

But I don't want to pin too much hopes on things like NRC, eviction of illegals etc. The BJP has been in power in Assam for a whole term & the "illegal Bangladeshis" issue was one of their election manifestos back then. But they've done zilch. They haven't even notified the CAA law and it remains toothless till now.

If BJP wins WB, it will be Sabka Saath again. WB needs a lot of Vikas and they'll get that for sure. But nothing on the illegal immigrants.

[Hari Seldon]

^ nice.

Anything above 150 is great, coz it means simple majority.

However, for real ground level change, a decisive victory is needed - a 25 seat buffer would be nice, say 175.

But real change starts at the 2/3rds mark. So, yes, hoping and praying for a 200+ wala miracle. Only. At that level, cultural change can be effected, not just political change. Only.

[nachiket]

In WB, the important thing is to get the state police under control if BJP wins. The police in WB seem to basically act like uniformed TMC goons. There is a massive cleanup needed there. Everything else follows from how well you can do that. Neither development nor protection for Hindus is possible without it.

[Yagnasri]

The election win may end up creating huge violence against BJP supporters from the side of TMC goons. I hope I am wrong, but I fear that will happen.

[chetak]

communistas and naxals

never tire at sucking at the government teat and dining off the public trough









Now as states given the option to procure 50%, he wants the center to amend the policy and give kerala all free.

Earlier this same state was pressing for allowing the direct import of vaccines.

[SRajesh]

.

True.



Let me point out a constant headache India is having quite a sometime. Look at the north bengal map - see where the mighty Teesta river enters
northwest Bangladesh from Jalpaiguri district of north bengal. Itenters Bangladesh's Nilphamari and Rangpur districts. As such this area of Bangladesh is not well developed as the south. China has given a proposal to set up an industrial park in that area, set up chinese manufacturing units with their engineers. They have proposed to develop thousands of acres with agro industrial units too. This has alarmed India as it will a han ploy to snoop over the vital military installations in the chicken's neck area.

Just a pooch ( going back to 71')
1. Why did we agree for separate country rather than assimilating it as East Bengal after 6/12 months.
2. Or what stopped us to reorganise the borders post 71 war vis-à-vis chicken area.
3. were there objections from P5 for border reorganization or
4. was it the stupid magnanimity of the Indic folks (read Mrs G advisors)
5. or Natasha not playing ball at the nth minute to spoils the gains of war

[chetak]

The election win may end up creating huge violence against BJP supporters from the side of TMC goons. I hope I am wrong, but I fear that will happen.

they are all bengalis and they know how to handle violence. That sort of evens out the odds

The cops will not take a partisan view of any violence unless it is in support of the BJP. They must already be worried about their not so rosy futures.

All this is, of course, assuming that the BJP romps home, with a comfortable win

[Rahul M]

Lt Gen Subrata Saha (retd), whom kati mentioned as a possible home minister is running from rashbehari AC of South Kolkata.
It seems the good general has brought all his army experience to the campaign and is running it along COIN tactics. Instead of big rallies, he has established something like a CI grid and his troops(some of his BJP karyakartas are actual retired soldiers who served under him) are concentrating on 'area domination patrols', grid by grid. IOW, he has mapped out the AC and going door to door systematically, no area, whatever the status is left out.
His msg, that I am a newcomer but I have experience in serving the country and that I will do my best for you has generated good response among the voters.
His tmc opponent is sensing danger and carpet bombing FM radio with ads.

[ramana]

Article by Disha on Mamata campaign meltdown

https://myind.net/Home/viewArticle/deco ... n-campaign

[VinodTK]

Article by Disha on Mamata campaign meltdown

https://myind.net/Home/viewArticle/deco ... n-campaign

Must read article.

[Sachin]

Now as states given the option to procure 50%, he wants the center to amend the policy and give kerala all free.

These gimmics can be ignored, if there is no serious national security implications associated with them. The current Go.KL is more loyal to Arab Sheiks than the Indian Union. During the last five years, the CPI(M) led government have used every single trick in the book to work with countries like UAE directly byepassing GoI. The UAE Consultate at Thiruvananthapuram itself was accused of gold smuggling with even UAE citizens in the radar, along with 100% literate liberal Malayalis.

The communist party propaganda machinery along with that of the peacefool organisations have now pretty much pitted the state against other states in Indian Union and the majority religion. In the name of targetting Modi & BJP, the targets are now slowly being setup on Hindu establishments, Hindu belief system and the religion in general. Social media groups are rampant with very heavy anti-India (masqueraded as anti-North India, and anti-North Indian Hindu) propaganda. The sense of entitlement and demands of giving every thing for free is getting more and more popular. And the constant campaign of how the magnanimous sheiks of Arab lands are just waiting to provide free unaccounted money to Keralites is also in full swing, actively choreographed by peacefool groups.

The North Kerala communist mafia running the current GoKL have done so much damage to the state (and even its relationship with other states in the Union) is mind boggling, so much so that none of the commie governments right from 1956 will come any where close. Kerala is becoming a state where Islamic diktats run the show.

[hnair]

Lt Gen Subrata Saha (retd), whom kati mentioned as a possible home minister is running from rashbehari AC of South Kolkata.
It seems the good general has brought all his army experience to the campaign and is running it along COIN tactics. Instead of big rallies, he has established something like a CI grid and his troops(some of his BJP karyakartas are actual retired soldiers who served under him) are concentrating on 'area domination patrols', grid by grid. IOW, he has mapped out the AC and going door to door systematically, no area, whatever the status is left out.
His msg, that I am a newcomer but I have experience in serving the country and that I will do my best for you has generated good response among the voters.
His tmc opponent is sensing danger and carpet bombing FM radio with ads.

Nice! I observed a similar grid approach in an older-Kerala church neighborhood, which used to be a Cong bastion. A friend of mine who is a resident of that neighbourhood and is active in residents association said the BJP booth level folks visited his houses four times in total and by now he knows them all by name and vice versa. In Trivandrum, nowadays, most of political messaging is done via resident's associations (which also is highly politicised on party lines!)

[Sachin]

A friend of mine who is a resident of that neighbourhood and is active in residents association said the BJP booth level folks visited his houses four times in total

To be honest; for the last State elections the only political campaigner who called me on my phone was the BJP chap in my area. From my parents I understood that they had visited all homes at least twice, and from there even got my number (from my parents) and then actually spoke to me. Both the 'secular' groups did not even bother to see if I was in town (perhaps they knew my vote did not matter ).

[hnair]

A friend of mine who is a resident of that neighbourhood and is active in residents association said the BJP booth level folks visited his houses four times in total

To be honest; for the last State elections the only political campaigner who called me on my phone was the BJP chap in my area. From my parents I understood that they had visited all homes at least twice, and from there even got my number (from my parents) and then actually spoke to me. Both the 'secular' groups did not even bother to see if I was in town (perhaps they knew my vote did not matter ).

Hope you saw my earlier post on a rising star

[Sumeet]

Does current Covid situation impacts BJP/NDA success in Bengal & Assam ?

[ramana]

So Sachin what do you think the three main groups vote share will be:
LDF, UDF, and BJP?

[disha]

Wow. BRF has organically moved to the next level in analysis and communication. Very heartwarming. Great post disha.

KLNMurthy'ji, many thanks for the kind words. Yes, BRF has shaped many thoughts and hope we can continue to contribute and learn from here.

The above has been put out as article here: https://www.myind.net/Home/viewArticle/ ... n-campaign

My many many appreciation for MyInd.net, it is shaping up to be a fine portal to exchange ideas and views.

[disha]

Yes, please accept my appreciation for your astute analysis Disha ji. Worthy of publishing somewhere, OpIndia or Swarajya for sure.

Primus'ji, many thanks for the words of appreciation.

Wow! All this based on one word from my post "schizophrenic." ....

We might have to write an article someday on "psychosomatic"...

The article is here at https://myind.net/Home/viewArticle/deco ... n-campaign

Without the encouragement and motivation I received here from the BRF members and from Ramana'ji, the above would not have been possible.

[disha]

Excellent write up @disha. Have always followed your posts with great interest. Keep them coming!

Many Many thanks Y.I Patel'ji.

[chetak]

Wow. BRF has organically moved to the next level in analysis and communication. Very heartwarming. Great post disha.

KLNMurthy'ji, many thanks for the kind words. Yes, BRF has shaped many thoughts and hope we can continue to contribute and learn from here.

The above has been put out as article here: https://www.myind.net/Home/viewArticle/ ... n-campaign

My many many appreciation for MyInd.net, it is shaping up to be a fine portal to exchange ideas and views.

way to go, Disha ji.

good show.

[Prem Kumar]

The communist party propaganda machinery along with that of the peacefool organisations have now pretty much pitted the state against other states in Indian Union and the majority religion. In the name of targetting Modi & BJP, the targets are now slowly being setup on Hindu establishments, Hindu belief system and the religion in general. Social media groups are rampant with very heavy anti-India (masqueraded as anti-North India, and anti-North Indian Hindu) propaganda. The sense of entitlement and demands of giving every thing for free is getting more and more popular. And the constant campaign of how the magnanimous sheiks of Arab lands are just waiting to provide free unaccounted money to Keralites is also in full swing, actively choreographed by peacefool groups

Same situation in TN.

1) Anti-Brahminism is a dog-whistle for Hinduphobia
2) Anti-Modi is a proxy for anti-India
3) Tamil Pride, anti-Hindi are euphemisms for Dravidian separatism

[nachiket]

Does current Covid situation impacts BJP/NDA success in Bengal & Assam ?

Assam election is already done. Same with TN etc. They are only waiting on Bengal to finish to start counting on the same day.

[RajaRudra]

Article by Disha on Mamata campaign meltdown

https://myind.net/Home/viewArticle/deco ... n-campaign

Enjoyed this para.

Here is what is happening. The Lutyens elites have no access into the Modi government. Before the Modi government, they would just wine and dine all the way to a PM on his aircraft Air India One. News anchors will be invited by the Indian Navy admiral for an exclusive interview. They were able to get the juiciest information out and incept narratives into the administration (Radia tapes). They were the power brokers with power flowing through their wheeling and dealing. For this kind of wheeling and dealing, one does not need skills. Just a non-scrupulous non-empathy cruel mind that is self-centered to pursue selfish goals for power and money without a conscience is sufficient.

[Sachin]

Hope you saw my earlier post on a rising star

. Missed it. Elections, then a home trip for Vishu and now I am down with COVID. But yes, I did saw the revolutionary move by Sandeep Vachaspati. This so called Punnapra-Vayalar uprising seems to be another carefully manufactured myth by the commies. And Sandeep now gave a chance for every one to discuss it in the open. A 'freedom struggle' done very well after Britain had already initiated power transfer procedures, and a 'memorial' plaque which even have names of communists who died of natural causes as late as in 1970s . And off course real stories of mainly illiterate SC/ST people who were pushed in front of the police as cannon fodder by the ever elusive upper caste comrades like VS Achuthanandan, EMS Namboodirippad etc.

The BJP as I see it seems to be now preparing for a long haul and their leadership cadre is now being slowly groomed. Looks like the central leadership knows the absolute uselessness of the so called state level leadership but are now just using them as chair warmers. The other 'secular' parties do not seem to have this kind of a long term vision in mind, and they perhaps are only targeting BJP for quick close quarters battle.

Added to that, the first-time BJP MLA, O Rajagopal has turned out to be a grade A useless prick

I always hoped that this chap had some sense up his head and would remain level headed. Or at least that he can keep his mouth shut and avoid embarassing his party. But no, just one sitting as an MLA his "secular credentials" had to be brought out to display. Seems to be another trojan horse who may have actually won due to support from the commies. O. Rajagopal is soon becoming the Yeshwant Sinha of Kerala.

A theory which I am now hearing very very often in KL is that; BJP is planning to finish of INC first and foremost. Even if that means allowing commies to rule the state one more time, but that is like giving a long rope to hang. If INC goes down a lot of secular 2nd rung leaders will move towards BJP. The commies any way are now purely focusing on Islamic vote blocks, so they may not be bothered much. And it would be in another 10 years time that the elections would take a very religious identity based one; BJP & ex-INC folks v/s commies+Islamic organizations.

They send their ED, CBI, NIA, etc combo package and give him a no choice offer. The CM or party leader of that non BJP state sometimes tries to protect them but most of the times they are left on their own against the central agencies.

This scheme if true was not very successful in Kerala. It also depends on the wherewithal of the other party as well. In KL for example, CPI(M) is not like INC and they are also in a "do or die" situation with lot of external parties willing to help them. There are lots of vested interests who needs CPI(M) to be running the show in Kerala, and secondly the state machinery also has found ways to hit back at the CBI,ED,NIA combo. KL may be the only state where state police filed an FIR against Enforcement Directorate (though the High Court threw out the FIR).

[chetak]

communist manglasutras, anyone

[Dilbu]

BJP will lose onlee

[Dilbu]

Reporting for duty as requested by bredatorji.

[Cyrano]

Article by Disha on Mamata campaign meltdown

https://myind.net/Home/viewArticle/deco ... n-campaign

Excellent Disha ji ! India that rejects maai-baap sarkaars is the India I dreamed of. My joy and hope have no limits as I see that India arriving at last !

[Mukesh.Kumar]

BJP will lose onlee

You were a sight for sore eyes. Your auspicious presence was really needed in the Battle for Bengal.

[chetak]

is pinarayi vijayan stooopide or is the kerala electorate stooopide

It has to be one of the two onlee

CPI-M govt In KeraIa were also planning to manufacture their own breakthrough Covid Vaccine.

Nov 2020: "Kerala looking to set up vaccine manufacturing unit": Pinarayi Vijayan

Kerala looking to set up vaccine manufacturing unit: Pinarayi Vijayan

[rajkumar]

is pinarayi vijayan stooopide or is the kerala electorate stooopide

It has to be one of two

How about both!!!!

[shravanp]

BJP will lose onlee

Finally!

[Yagnasri]

Mamatha Gone.

[Dilbu]

Mamatha Gone.

Saar not so fast. Let us not forget that many a times I have been chased with pitchforks on this forum after failed attempts. I hope I won't have to lift my lungi and run for my life in this instance.

BJP will lose onlee.