Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

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vijayk
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by vijayk »

https://www.news18.com/news/opinion/tak ... 37193.html

Taking Ties to New Heights: Japan and India Join Hands in the Strategic Andaman and Nicobar Islands
There are few bilateral relationships that are as dispute-free as the one between India and Japan. The Japanese see India as the land of Lord Buddha and Subhash Chandra Bose, which is why they have a lot of respect for Indians. India, on the other hand, looks towards Japan as a developed, benevolent power that can help lend stability to the Indo-Pacific. Therefore, the relationship between India and Japan is based on mutual understanding and mutual admiration.

After the 1950s, the bilateral relationship between the two countries has remained stable. A diplomatic relationship was established in 1952, Japan started providing soft loans and developmental aid to India in 1958 and when India faced a balance of payment crisis in 1991, Japan was one of the few countries that helped New Delhi. However, over the past few years, the relationship has evolved further and has become more strategic in character. So, how is the Indo-Japanese relationship evolving and what does it mean for the two countries? Let’s find out.

The Indo-Japanese relationship is evolving in three areas- the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), defence and economic partnership. Cooperation in each of these three sectors is strategically crucial for the three countries.

Starting with cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region, Recently, the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) signed a grant agreement with the Government of India to provide around US$133 million for a power supply project in India’s Andaman & Nicobar Islands (ANI). For India, the investment becomes pivotal to its plans of developing the Islands into a well-equipped region where military assets can be effectively stationed. The islands carry a lot of significance being located close to the Strait of Malacca and accounting for 30% of India’s Exclusive Econ
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by Rony »

Real purpose of quad

U.S. enlists its Asian allies in defense of Taiwan
Washington fears a possible Chinese invasion by 2027. It will need all the help it can get
The U.S. is trying to build a reliable coalition that would face off against China if it attempted to take Taiwan by force. The time frame for such an invasion could be within five years, according to current and retired Pentagon officials. The avoidance of mentioning Russia makes it easier for India to stay at the table. The avoidance of China does the same for ASEAN nations.

The U.S. would prefer not to face China alone, due to Beijing's geographical advantages in the Taiwan Strait. But while the U.S. has five bilateral treaty allies and many partners in Asia, the idea of getting them to work united -- along the lines of NATO during the Ukraine war -- has so far proved elusive.

War games conducted by Washington think tanks show that a U.S. response to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan becomes stronger and stronger with more allies on board.

The relief on the faces of the Japanese officials hint that the U.S. is preparing for a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Japan would be a crucial partner in any such operation. ]As the chair of this year's Quad summit, Japan was tasked with compiling a joint statement that keeps the heat on China, without naming it, and would be digestible for India and ASEAN. That mission was accomplished.

When historians look back at the Tokyo Quad summit of 2022, they might say it was the moment the U.S. and its allies enlisted India in the game plan against China.

Whether India joins in the international condemnation of Russia at this point is not a priority for the White House. What is more important is that India is committed to the Quad and that, when push comes to shove, India is able to contribute in its own way.

"I wouldn't expect India to contribute in the local battle over Taiwan," former Pentagon official Elbridge Colby told Nikkei Asia. "They don't have the capability."

What India could do, however, is draw China's attention to the Himalayan border.

"What the United States and Japan need India to do is to be as strong as possible in South Asia and effectively draw Chinese attention so that they have a major second-front problem," said Colby, the principal author of the 2018 National Defense Strategy under former President Donald Trump.

India, in the meantime, draws the same benefit from China's difficulties in facing a strong U.S.-Japan alliance.

On the night of the Quad summit, after Biden had left Japan, Kishida invited Modi but not Albanese, the other Quad leader who was still in town, for dinner at the Akasaka Palace State Guesthouse.

The courting of India is not limited to a Taiwan contingency; it is also meant to sway the Indo-Pacific's future balance of power.

India has long been seen as the key swing state in the Asia-Pacific region and as the heaviest counterweight to China.


Japanese officials have quietly been discussing this since the mid-2000s. Back then, diplomats from the Japanese Embassy in Washington frequently visited the third floor of the Pentagon. Their destination was a room facing the central courtyard of the Department of Defense, Room 3A932, or the Office of Net Assessment, which since 1973 has provided highly classified assessments of other countries for the U.S. secretaries of defense.

The office head was the legendary strategist Andrew Marshall, who served eight presidents, from Richard Nixon to Barack Obama. The Japanese Embassy asked Marshall and his team to assess the future rise of China and how Japan should respond.

"He told us to look at India," recalled Masafumi Ishii, who served as the embassy's head of political affairs and the government's liaison with Marshall.

"Marshall was always looking 20 years ahead," Ishii said. "So we started to prepare for a G-3 world -- not a G-2 between the U.S. and China, but a world in which the U.S., China and India would be the three major powers."

The discussions at the Tokyo Quad meeting were in line with what Marshall had advised Ishii and his colleagues nearly two decades earlier.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by Dilbu »

THE QUAD GOES TO SEA
The biggest announcement from President Joe Biden’s trip to Asia may be the one that got the least attention. The Quad, a grouping consisting of Australia, India, Japan, and the United States, has just announced a maritime domain awareness partnership that will provide a new stream of data from commercial satellites to countries across the Indo-Pacific. This is a substantial addition to the Quad’s agenda and one of its most promising initiatives to date. Critically, it satisfies the desire of most regional partners for the Quad to provide public goods and address the needs of smaller states in and the Indian Ocean, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific Islands. If properly executed, this effort could be a flagship project for demonstrating the Quad’s value to regional countries.
AIS is only legally mandated on vessels over 300 tons operating in international waters. And VMS adoption is uneven. Most ships, including fishing boats, across the world’s oceans are under no obligation to operate either system. And even those that do can easily turn off or spoof the systems if they want to engage in illicit activity. That leaves regional law enforcement and navies reliant on coastal radar, which drops off rapidly farther from shore, or planes and ships, which are expensive and highly inefficient ways to monitor the vast waters of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Maritime domain awareness in the region therefore remains patchy and enforcement resembles a game of whack-a-mole in which badly outnumbered and overworked patrol vessels attempt to catch illicit operators.

Thankfully, space-based systems are beginning to present 21st-century solutions to these problems. In addition to space-based AIS and VMS receivers, many commercial satellites carry electro-optical as well as synthetic aperture radar sensors to image the planet’s surface. The price of satellite data is plummeting as companies move from relying primarily on large and expensive satellites in geosynchronous orbit to constellations of small and cheap satellites in low-earth orbit. Despite the rapidly diminishing costs of space-based remote sensing, collection at the scale necessary for persistent monitoring of vast exclusive economic zones is still too expensive for most developing states in the Indo-Pacific.
The best solution is what the industry refers to as “tipping and cueing” — using a sensor that can cover a large geographic area with lower fidelity for an initial collection, and then following up with a higher-resolution sensor to check on any suspicious activity. Satellites that track radio frequency data are a promising option for that first pass, and for some purposes collect sufficient data all by themselves. That is because almost every ship on the ocean sends out radio signals. Even illicit actors that may turn off or spoof AIS are still likely to be using very high frequency radios, X-band radars, and other systems. And with the right sensors, a satellite can collect and geolocate those signals over a relatively wide area.

One leading commercial operator on that front is U.S.-based HawkEye360, whose data the Quad members plan to purchase and share with partners across the region. This will be used to determine illicit actors’ patterns of behavior, task other satellites, and allow for more effective patrol and interdiction operations. The Quad will also help process and rapidly distribute this data through existing channels. These includes the U.S. Navy’s SeaVision platform, which is used by nearly every partner in the region, as well as India’s Indian Ocean Region Information Fusion Centre, Singapore’s Information Fusion Centre, the Australia-sponsored Pacific Fusion Centre in Vanuatu, and the Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Agency’s Regional Fisheries Surveillance Center in the Solomon Islands. This effort addresses a real need across Southeast Asia, the Indian Ocean region, and the Pacific Islands.

For several years, countries in Southeast Asia in particular have been asking the Quad to deliver public goods for them. The Quad vaccine initiative was welcomed but has been too slowly implemented. The same is true of the Quad’s commitment to regional infrastructure. And efforts to focus on supply chain security have bypassed much of the rest of the region. Questions have therefore been raised about the Quad’s ability to deliver value for neighbors in the Indo-Pacific.
This maritime domain awareness initiative therefore combines public goods provision with the Quad’s natural strengths: security cooperation and capacity building. The United States, Japan, Australia, and India are four of the Indo-Pacific’s leading maritime powers. It is only natural that they would help the region develop greater maritime domain awareness capabilities. That this will highlight China’s illicit activities in the waters of many regional states is certainly a benefit from a strategic standpoint, but it is also an economic boon for the Indo-Pacific’s smallest players the most.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

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ramana
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

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You have India's answer!!!
Lets post the transcript when available.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

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Cyrano
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

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The sous jacent point dr SJ seems to make is that if a set of countries have vibrant, mutually and generally beneficial relationships across multiple domains including mil exercises, then a specifically sewn together military alliance aimed at a particular power becomes redundant and mostly amounts to unnecessary posturing. Thats QUAD vs AUKUS for you.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by SSridhar »

ramana wrote:You have India's answer!!!
Lets post the transcript when available.
It was a brilliant speech.

He started with the historical perspective of changes since the end of the Cold War, touched upon the change in the US attitude, explained the bilaterals between India and each of the other three members.

I [more or less] transcripted important points myself. Omitted the last 5 minutes as those factual details about the QUAD's on-going projects are available on the internet
Indo-pacific as a theater and the QUAD as a platform are the recent additions to our strategic lexicon.

They reflect aspects of the global changes on the way.

Understandably, they are a subject of polemics in some quarters.

Once the constraints of the Cold War were unshackled, three of India’s strategic relations began to unfold naturally – those with the US, Japan and Australia.

As we discern the contours of what emerges, there is no doubt that the Indo-Pacific is at its core.

Even though Asia had been more dynamic than Europe, its regional architecture has been conservative because Europe faced the termination of the Cold War much more directly. For example, the fall of the Berlin Wall. In contrast, there has been no such seminal development in Asia or the Indo-Pacific. On the contrary, it was an era of steady economic progress with accompanying political stability.

Until recently, neither an over-arching scenario was visible, nor a need felt for a shared response. To the extent it was required, it was provided by the ASEAN. A pervasive American presence also helped this theater steady.

Revisiting these assumptions has started to shape the emergence of the Indo-Pacific.

To begin with, it is the strategic repositioning of American policy, namely ‘America First’ or ‘Foreign Policy for the Middle Class’. None of us can be indifferent to the American posture whatever we may be, ally or agnostic. The US polity is going through a serious introspection. Among its changes is a greater openness to partnership.

The second biggest factor is the impressive growth of China. There are three aspects to this. The enormous capabilities of China in virtually every field. The second is the ‘projection’ factor which changed in c. 2009 and more vigorously after c. 2012. The third is China’s deep relevance to the global economy which became particularly apparent during the pandemic.

The US is the most affected by this change.

We have actually entered a new phase in international relations. Naturally, the resonance is felt more strongly in its immediate vicinity. These led to the concept of the Indo-Pacific taking roots so rapidly.

In Europe it was the American generosity that overcame the hesitations and cautions of the nations there. In Indo-Pacific, in contrast, it is the limitations of the US that have triggered a re-thinking. There is a re-imagining of the arena itself.

By its design, the maritime domain supersedes man-made barriers and artificial restrictions. Assigning labels and restricting activities is actually a modern phenomenon. The sharp differentiation within the Indo-Pacific was very much the result of the outcomes of c. 1945. It has a particular American signature to it consistent with American pre-occupations.

Debates about the QUAD sometimes say that it is Cold War thinking. It is motivated and false. It is made by the same quarters who seek to freeze the status-quo as of c. 1945. Their endeavors are to constrain the choices of others and impose their interests on others. Aggressive rhetoric is aimed at exerting pressure to conform.

The IOR might have been relegated to the backwaters for seven decades after the end of WW-II. But, today it is not only a critical lifeline but one which is smoothly fusing into the waters of the Pacific. The actions of the major powers active in the Indo-Pacific show what are their real and integrated calculations.

If you judge the nations by what they do rather than by what they preach, the picture is very clear. The Indo-Pacific is the future, not the past.

A significant contribution to the Indo-Pacific landscape has been made by India’s Act East policy. Our opening up of the economy three decades ago, acquired other dimensions such as connectivity, security, education and societal exchanges. Domains might have been different but India developed far greater and substantial relationship with the ASEAN, Japan, South Korea and China. Australia happened later but the political and security dimension have allowed a catch-up very readily. What started as a solution for its economic crisis has ended up as its strategic correction.

It is not surprising given the long Indian history of maritime trade and cultural relationships to the Fujian coast of China.

At the heart of the QUAD is a level of comfort generated by the marked improvement through multiple sets of bilateral relationships. This is enhanced by a stronger sense of converging purpose to face the regional and global challenges.Obviously, the collective ease is based shared interests and similar characteristics.

The origin of the QUAD goes back to the coordination to the 2004 tsunami. But it didn’t proceed beyond 2007 because none of the members was interested in investing sufficient political capital at that point of time. The natural question therefore is what changed between c. 2007 & 2017.

The current is a cumulative product of several developments. Among them, the changes capabilities of the key players, a more integrated arena, an emerging vacuum on global issues and a greater openness to look beyond orthodox constructs. But, the real difference is the enormous improvement in relationships between some of the key players. While the three nations US, Japan & Australia were already very close, what they did not have in 2007 was the convergence and cooperation with India that they attained by 2017.

My critical point is that it is the story of these changed relationships that we must seek the explanation for the rapid development of the QUAD.

So, let’ start with the USA.

The current phase of our ties can be traced back to Pres. Clinton’s visit which was a s aresult of the effective management of the political fallout of the 1998 nuclear tests. This starting point must be duly recognized because it confirms that India and the US upgraded their relationship seeing an intrinsic value in doing so. Let’s remember that this was still the era of the dotcom revolution and the H1B visa. There was no balance of power argument that was driving the American strategy towards us. It was the increasing prosperity, the expanding talent pool, the larger global exposure of India that made it a better partner for India. In one way, this was the natural progression of the relationship once the constraints of the Cold War era were removed. Suggesting that these ties do not have their own merit and must therefore be necessarily be directed against others, is to actually exercise a veto on India’s choices. This is all the more contestable given how some nations leveraged their own relationship with the USA so enthusiastically in the past. Obviously when the judgement is given by any party which has a stake in the outcome, this must be see as what it is. The Bush administration identified nuclear cooperation as the serious impediment. The India-US nuclear deal widened the pathway. That five successive US Presidents from Clinton to Biden, who are as different from each other, have pursued greater cooperation with India, has been the real game changer.

These two decades have also seen a steady progress of relationship with Japan. Unlike the US, Japan did not have a history of leaning towards Pakistan during the Cold War. The paradox of the situation with Japan that a lack of issues between the two nations also limited high-level attention.

The relationship that has developed visibly is between India and Australia. The road to recovery of the relationship after the 1998 tests was not an easy one. Australia followed the US thinking to the countries east of India and that of the UK, to the west of India. Commonwealth relationships ensured a steady exchange in various spheres. It took a very deep hit after 1998. Clearly, the days of attention deficit are over, with a vengeance. There is a larger systemic confidence now. The Tokyo QUAD has confirmed that the new Albanese government is as committed to this relationship as the earlier ones.

The IPOI (Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative) is an additional platform for interaction among the QUAD members. It is an open, non-treaty based inclusive platform and it will work in tandem with other pre-existing formats like IORA, BIMSTEC, ASEAN. It has seven pillars. Australia has accepted to lead the Maritime Ecology pillar, Japan the Connectivity and Transport pillar, France and Indonesia the maritime resources pillar and the UK, the Maritime Security pillar.

The QUAD members are all democratic polities, open economies, pluralistic societies, there is a natural understanding and similarity in structural aspects which have actually helped to foster the relationship. They have logistics and White shipping agreements which lead to greater maritime security. They subscribe to UNCLOS. There is a great interest in the oceanic domain as all members are maritime powers.
ramana
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by ramana »

Thanks, SS. Will reflect on this.
Even though QUAD is there India needs to chart its own course wrt China.
Long ago in aftermath of 9/11, I posted a chart on bilateral relationships and their role in promoting ties.*
Let me dig it up.
*svinayak might recall that.
Cyrano
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by Cyrano »

Small nitpick on what Dr SJ said: Last I checked US has not ratified UNCLOS. There was some heehaw a year or two ago when a US navy vessel passed near Indian waters without required politesse and were arrogant about it. India didn't make an issue out of it publicly.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

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Somehow UK snuck into the Maritime Security pillar of IPOI (Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative). And France has been roped in for maritime resources pillar. Personally I'd like to see France more involved in MarSec in the IOR in future. UK - seeing how rabidly they are acting in Ukraine, I'd not want them anywhere near IOR.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

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I think India has made it evidently clear that she has an independent "own course". It is just that neither Indian analysts/news nor foreigners have digested it yet - they are still unconsciously chewing on it, as we do while eating and watching something attractive on TV.

I suspect Japan has acknowledged it.

Australia has sort of done so too, but is still under the influence.


Meanwhile Modi is acting like the good cop, while Jaishankar is the bad cop. Modi has not seen a person he does not like to hug. Jaishankar has not seen a person he does not want to lecture. And, the US and now EU have provided both a great world platform on which to operate.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

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NRao wrote:Modi has not seen a person he does not like to hug. Jaishankar has not seen a person he does not want to lecture.
Ha ha ! true that !!
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by bala »

I am very skeptical about the QUAD headed by the US with the goal of taking on China. Both the US and China are tied at the hip economically and the Deep State of US is heavily invested in China. No matter the formations, there is an inherent understanding of US and China as G2. There was cooperation in bio-warfare (kungflu) between US and China. The US is highly reliant on supplies of manufactured goods from China, just walk into any store in the US and examine the products and where it is made. The economic tangle of US-China has to be untangled first before the alliance tangle of QUAD. If India can attract the manufacture of China for the US then we can think of the QUAD as a useful alliance. Meanwhile India would be best advised to pursue separate cooperation with Japan, Australia and other ASEAN countries like Philippines. This is happening and is more useful than QUAD stuff. However, any cooperation to unsettle China is welcome.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by Rudradev »

I have a question about this. Wasn't Pakistan a treaty ally of the US? Twice over in fact, with CENTO and SEATO. Did those guarantees expire? Other than 1971 there was never a direct move by GOTUS to militarily intervene on Pakistan's behalf during a war with India.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by S_Madhukar »

I think we should just use QUAD as a US rubber stamp to get most of what we need from specially Japan. If they can provide Korea and China all the investment surely we can get lots of hitech from them and then move on
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by chetak »

Rudradev wrote:
I have a question about this. Wasn't Pakistan a treaty ally of the US? Twice over in fact, with CENTO and SEATO. Did those guarantees expire? Other than 1971 there was never a direct move by GOTUS to militarily intervene on Pakistan's behalf during a war with India.
doesn't satellite imagery and COMINT help count....

the pakis got that via the cia

they shut down the GPS in cashmere so that the IAF's precision bombing runs would be severely disrupted.

Those were certainly not India friendly acts

Under SEATO and CENTO, a lot of intelligence and NATSEC related inputs would have gone to the pakis, especially during the 1965 war against India
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by ramana »

SEATO ended in 1978 .
CENTO after Shah of Iran was removed.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by Rudradev »

chetak wrote:
Rudradev wrote:
I have a question about this. Wasn't Pakistan a treaty ally of the US? Twice over in fact, with CENTO and SEATO. Did those guarantees expire? Other than 1971 there was never a direct move by GOTUS to militarily intervene on Pakistan's behalf during a war with India.
doesn't satellite imagery and COMINT help count....

the pakis got that via the cia

they shut down the GPS in cashmere so that the IAF's precision bombing runs would be severely disrupted.

Those were certainly not India friendly acts

Under SEATO and CENTO, a lot of intelligence and NATSEC related inputs would have gone to the pakis, especially during the 1965 war against India
"India friendly/unfriendly acts" is not the issue. For that matter we all know how the Pakis got hold of Sabres, Starfighters, spare parts and more from Turkey, Jordan, and Shah's Iran during its wars with India, and despite US' supposed "embargo".

But that is about as much as Ukraine is getting from the West today--material help and intelligence sharing. It isn't a direct military intervention which Ukraine would be entitled to if it were a *treaty ally* under NATO. The US only tried that once during an Indo-Pak war.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

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If there were an Indo-Pak war today, even considering SEATO and CENTO are absento, despite India being a QUAD buddy, I firmly believe the US will help Pak covertly by sharing Intel and whatever else it can.

Even if caught helping Pak they will spin some deniability story, blame it on some rogue elements tied to past ties or some such crap, fire w couple of jr ppl in Pentagon at most, but they WILL DO IT. They know India cannot take a "you are 200% with us or 100% against us" stand.

They will do it not because Pak can win with such help and despite knowing fully well that India will prevail but because the harder the win becomes, the more India would have bled and exhausted itself and the greater it's future dependency will be on the US.

That's the US for you. You don't become the biggest gorilla on the planet and stay there for decades by walking on egg shells.

Indian establishment knows this and will dance with the devil as much as needed in the QUAD or some other fad but no more.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by Rudradev »

No doubt about it. The US' commitment to "global world order" is nothing but high-falutin' shorthand for saying they are determined to preserve everything about the world as it is today. That includes a Kashmir that is partially under illegal occupation by China and Pakistan, and in which no non-Muslim minority can ever be securely at home. Any disruption to this status quo, or attempt to change this status quo, is considered too great a risk of knock-on effects that could eventually lead to displacing the dollar as the world's reserve currency.

My question about SEATO/CENTO was based on a different train of thought. If Pakistan was a *treaty ally* of the US, then the US was obliged to assist it with direct military aid during any of its wars... not just with intelligence and equipment, but direct military intervention as it only tried during 1971. But that was not the case.

These days there is talk about elevating QUAD to some sort of "treaty alliance". How does India, for example, know that it won't be shafted in a "treaty alliance" QUAD, the same as Pakistan's entitlements under CENTO/SEATO were not honoured by the US during say the 1965 war?
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by ramana »

Even the intervention in 1971 was not under SEATO treaty obligations.

Europe even was not sure of NATO and wanted US troops on the soil to ensure they are under threat of attack so that US intervention is a fait accompli.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news ... be-adviser
Without India and Modi, Quad could not fly: Former Abe adviser
Manish Chand, May 28, 2022

Tokyo: The second in-person Quad summit held in Tokyo on 24 May cemented solidarity among four major liberal democracies and strengthened their cooperation to deal with emerging challenges to the rules-based order. The summit in Tokyo has shown that Quad is here to stay, says Tomohiko Taniguchi, Special Advisor to the Cabinet of then Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. In this interview in Tokyo, Prof Taniguchi underlined the pivotal role of India and Prime Minister Narendra Modi in shaping Quad as a powerful force of regional stability. Prof Taniguchi, a leading foreign policy commentator and Professor, Graduate School of SDM, Keio University, also spoke about the Quad’s strategy for dealing with the China challenge. Excerpts:
Q: What was the big takeaway from the Quad summit in Tokyo? Do you think the Quad summit has restored the focus back on the Indo-Pacific, which suffered in the wake of the pandemic?
A: This summit has been very significant. First, because it took place right in the middle of the bloody war raging in Europe when the United States was forced to pay much more attention to the European front than to the Indo-Pacific. Notwithstanding, President Biden chose to bring his frail body somehow to Seoul and Tokyo to showcase to the rest of the world and to the domestic audiences that here in this part of the world and the Indo-Pacific, you get future opportunities and future challenges. Therefore, there will continue to be a need for the United States to concentrate its attentions and assets not on Europe, but more on Indo-Pacific. This was a powerful message to the region.
About Japan, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was largely dubbed as dovish, compared to his predecessor, especially Shinzo Abe, who actually designed Quad. Still, he succeeded in making a pledge to the international community using the next five years as a window of opportunity. The Japanese government is going to incrementally increase its defence budget to make it finally on par with European NATO member nations. Third, about Australia. Scott Morrison was one of the founders of Quad. There was a degree of uncertainty, especially because the new prime minister was sworn in only one day prior to the Quad meeting. So once again, it showed the Quad is here to stay. And I think that was a powerful demonstration of the longevity of Quad. Overall, Quad has succeeded in strengthening its image overriding some of the changes of the government, and some of the changes in the international environment.
Q: How do you look at the role of India in strengthening Quad?
A: Without India, without Narendra Modi, Quad could not have flown. There was a degree of hesitancy among the elite community members of Delhi, about India joining a largely US-led camp. It took the courage and straightforwardness of Narendra Modi to have overcome the legacy of non-alignment. Furthermore, since the war erupted in Ukraine, India led by Narendra Modi showed its less determined posture of helping Ukraine and it struggled, it seems to me and to many others, to find a balance between Russia and Ukraine. But when it comes to the Indo-Pacific theatre, he is well aware that the immediate challenge may be about Russia-Ukraine war, but the long term challenge will continue to be in the Indo-Pacific region.
The reason why Shinzo Abe expanded the geographic horizon from Asia-Pacific to Indo-Pacific was primarily because he wanted to include India, being aware that the Indian Ocean would be the industrial highway for the 21st century. And given the fact that if there is any country in the world that feels very much responsible of the peace and safety and prosperity in the Indian Ocean region, it is India—which is the reason why Shinzo Abe spoke of the “Confluence of the Two Seas” back in 2007, and expanded the geographic concept of Asia-Pacific to Indo-Pacific. Narendra Modi is fully aware of that concept, and has demonstrated vividly to the rest of the Quad member nations that India is very much a responsible partner of the Quad arrangement.
......
Gautam
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by chetak »

Cyrano wrote:
NRao wrote:Modi has not seen a person he does not like to hug. Jaishankar has not seen a person he does not want to lecture.
Ha ha ! true that !!

And yet, the hitherto uppity gora govts are beating a panicked path to Modi's door, and Jaishankar, in the clearest of terms, is laying it out for them.

He doesn't lecture or pontificate but for the very first time India's FM tells it like it is and that has left the goras adrift in a sea of uncertainty

He doesn't tolerate the goras wishing to ride roughshod over India in any forum and that has not only unpleasantly surprised many a patronizing gora govt but also set the cat among the pigeons by exposing diplomatic hypocrites.

The EU govt in particular, after years of isolating Modi, is now paying the price of its arrogance and its irrelevance in India's scheme of things. von der leyen came, von der leyen saw, and von der leyen left.

Contrast the entirely different approaches adopted by liz truss and her boss, uncle boris when they visited India. One packed her knife while the other knew better than to pack any cutlery at all.

Khas dost indeed!! an insignificant and marginalized nation of shopkeepers who would sell their mothers' to turn a profit

Jaishankar had pinned truss's ears back publicly when she opened her hole needlessly in India, disregarding all diplomatic niceties and conventions, sort of like a female version of the uncouth daleep singh.

Ditto for biden and his war mongering minions

Now the west is dismayed to discover that the "good cop, bad cop" game can be as dextrously played by India as well.

Jaishankar will never do a sharm el sheik like the congi mafia did, using their paid pet raincoat.

One wonders whose script it was that was actually being run at sharm el sheik, when the slippery and "bathing in a raincoat" family factotum was wound up like an ancient mechanical toy and primed to deliver his homilies, often damaging to India. The pakis, at sharm el sheik, were not only shocked witless but also delighted beyond belief that their nazar ki dua had paid off in spades. The ameriki hands were there, for sure.

Modi talks only in face to face meetings which is the only rightful forum for a head of govt to make his stand clear. All such meetings are recorded and the meeting minutes are available for concerned people to see.

Jaishankar, apart from providing inputs and talking points for such bilateral/multilateral exchanges, also conveys the thinktanki and working level gora govt feedback on matters which the concerned govts may be a bit wary of broaching officially, but will convey in the form of non attributable, and unsigned "backgrounders" and non papers.

Modi does the heavy lifting at the summit level and Jaishankar does the same at the working level and handles the foreign press but does not go looking for it. He speaks only when asked a question and sometimes throws in some background as well to elaborate on some complex point.

I have yet to see a come back from the goras to rebut his point(s).

In any telephonic and video conferencing, preparations are made well in advance and very often, the questions and talking points are known to all parties concerned.

No such talk is ever impromptu, except maybe, in grave emergencies and the MEA is always in attendance.

When foreign "diplomats" like daleep singh and other state dept flunkies come to India and while "talks" are going on, slyly and arrogantly, "give" interviews to commie channels and presstitutes, it is a blatant attempt to influence Indian opinion, both at the official and at the woke level and crudely convey their "either my way or the highway" point of view. It was obviously meant for a whole lot of other countries as well, and not only for India.

daleep singh bombed spectacularly, seriously singeing many a pale white butt at foggy bottom.

In the past, such tactics worked with India but with Jaishankar and his "new" MEA, the earlier norm of sly, devious, and conniving leaks have all but petered out and biradhari and parivaari type diplomats are cowering in foxholes waiting for the storm to pass.

The days of the MEA clowns with their fondness for "nazar ki dua" and their patronage of the phenomenon of pervasive bribery is over. This is how the cheenis and the pakis gained their advantage during the congi led papa ki pari days that began, in some ways, even before 1947 and it is also the way that many MNCs routinely operate in India.

Do you really think that mediocrities like nirup@m@ et al would have reached anywhere without this "nazar ki dua". All it needs is the firm and continued application of the जीभ to the carefully chosen gluteus maximus. eyetalian tang and nuance was mandatory.

"nazar ki dua" is a east India company perfected system, originally evolved from the jehadi invasion and culture days and it now well established as a process in "democratic" India where one needs to bribe the P.A. of a minister for his benevolent pleasure in granting one an appointment, so on and on it goes...........

the congis and the commies are even now now operating clandestine nazars that are run by avaricious lootyens mistresses of some erstwhile powers that be, seeing how they still manage to control the presstitutes and can slant any news that they desire.

It is precisely this lack of inputs that is seriously hampering the govts of the cheenis and pakis. Earlier, they were privy to secret information virtually on a day to day basis because of the cancer of the aman ki tamasha that had infected the wokes

Accusing Jaishankar of "lecturing" and Modi of "hugging" is not only uncharitable, but also patronizing and pretentious.

If only we were lucky enough to have such desi leaders when power was transferred in 1947, instead of the jehadis, philanderers, and mountebanks that we ended up with courtesy of the congis and commies, who were being remote controlled by the britshits

Jaishankar simply cannot be faulted on his impeccable logic, deep strategic insights and depth of knowledge of the many inter connected issues and events that make the whole and how they have shaped the current global scenario.

He also knows where the gora's diplomatic bodies are buried. He simply outclasses the vast majority of the goras that he deals with and they also know it too.

SPs rise to rightfully become the PM was wilfully sabotaged by the malevolent and motivated machinations of the stretcher bearer of the british empire

But then what to do onlee. we are the all knowing Hindoos, no.....

They both are what we need and also what we have.

Modi, except for the most perfunctory of handshakes, if at all, steers clear of the lady heads of govt or state, as indeed he should.

Tell me, have any male gora heads of govt or state ever dared to refuse Modi's hug. Today, Modi's India represents both economic and military power, along with access to huge resources and a very stable govt. One tiny nod of Modi's can either make or break a vital trade deal or stop xi in his tracks.

or in SL's case Modi's nod has opened the gates for a bail out that has reached almost $5billion to date. The same Modi's nod could well have stopped that almost $5billion in aid

With handshake or hug out of the way, Modi quickly reverts to his true self. He is a very successful deal maker for India, and always looking to do better.

And, this lone ranger has his tonto....

The hug is a harmless quirk or whimsy and it is also Modi's signature move. Obviously permission is obtained in advance to preclude public refusal/rejection and hence rule out an ugly public spectacle.

Keep the faith, guys.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by SSridhar »

Rudradev wrote:I have a question about this. Wasn't Pakistan a treaty ally of the US? Twice over in fact, with CENTO and SEATO. Did those guarantees expire? Other than 1971 there was never a direct move by GOTUS to militarily intervene on Pakistan's behalf during a war with India.
RD, Pakistan withdrew from both SEATO & CENTO.
However, there was a Mutual Defense Agreement between the two which has died a natural death but revived in a new avtar, MNNA.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by Manish_P »

SSridhar wrote: RD, Pakistan withdrew from both SEATO & CENTO.
However, there was a Mutual Defense Agreement between the two which has died a natural death but revived in a new avtar, MNNA.


MNNA for the biblical US and RANDI for the aphrodisiac-crazy Chinese... very appropriate both ways, wouldn't you agree?
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by ramana »

About QUAD in Telugu

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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/opin ... 2-quad-2-0
I2-U2 is Quad 2.0
Rajiv Kumar, July 9, 2022

In October 2021, when the world was just about recovering from the various variants of Covid-19, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar was visiting Israel for a meeting of the foreign ministers of four nations. Besides the host Israel, there were the US and UAE for deliberations amongst other issues, the stability and the economic uplift of an important region. The meeting dealt with issues concerning maritime security, infrastructure, digital infrastructure and transport.
The meeting was envisioned as an “International Forum for Economic Cooperation”. However, before the talks could end with a focal point, the group’s formulation, perhaps as intended by the US, found itself a new poetic acronym, I2-U2, sounding very much like the R2D2 robot of Star Wars. The two Is for India and Israel and the two Us for the US and UAE. It was also referred to as the West Asia Quad.
The basis for this became the increasing integration of Israel into the Middle Eastern/West Asian region, born out of the Abraham Accords with UAE, Morocco and Bahrain on the one hand and the deepening ties between Israel, Jordan and Egypt, on the other. The idea was to build a new architecture of capabilities, keeping in mind the overall foreign policy objectives of the United States. This was maintaining its economy, industry and the currency aligned to the continued servicing and development of the Western world, with the US as the undisputed leader and the driving force.
Four main issues have dictated the direction of the focus: 1) The long Covid pandemic and its consequences on the world economy. 2) The recent war in Ukraine and Russia’s assertion of its military might and the relentless pounding of a sovereign territory, with countries like India not being dictated to take sides in the developments. Already new alignments have emerged, with a totally independent nation like Switzerland and the frontline states of Finland and Sweden seeking NATO membership. 3) The expansionist traits of China in its Belt and Road initiative, driving many economies into a debt trap and consequently ruin, Sri Lanka being a classic example and China’s gobbling up of islands in the western Pacific including small island counties like the Solomon Islands. 4) The strong but mistaken belief that Russia still remains the main adversary of the US.
The original Quad, which had furthered a safe and free Indo-Pacific region, has come as an example of new alignments for greater grouping of democratic countries sharing common ideals and the rule of law. These countries would ensure open markets and have the inherent capabilities of guarding sea channels, exclusive economic zones and present a collective show of determination to safeguard their shared vital interests.
For India, the Indo-Pacific means a greater area of interest, despite the original Quad comprising the US, India, Australia and Japan not having the charter as NATO countries for defending their borders and maritime interests if attacked by an adversary.
India’s footprint in West Asia was, in any case strong and ties with Israel were sharply on the uptake.
......
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by ramana »

Stimson Center watch on Indo-Pacific

https://www.stimson.org/project/geopoli ... o-pacific/

Lots of Indian Americans writing there
ramana
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by ramana »

Was thinking about the War in Pacific during WWII.

Basically US fought the war in the Ocean with its Battle of MidWay and Coral Sea and island hopping to get close to attack Imperial Japan.

The bulk of Imperial land forces were defeated land battles by British Indian Army at Kohima and Burma.

Quad seems replication of the Land and Ocean strategy of WWII.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by g.sarkar »

Ramanaji,
After Imperial Japan surrendered, after nuclear bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the US did not allow any other allied power to meddle with Japan. Post war Japan was created by US policies. Japan kowtowed to the US, and not to the other Western powers or Russia. (Russia had attacked Japan during the last days of WWII, hoping to make some territorial gains, which it did.) This is quite unlike the case of Europe, where the UK, France and also the USSR had a significant role to play in the post WWII era. Germany had 4 occupying powers, Japan had just one, the US. It was Japan that caused the demise of British and French empires in Asia, and they never recovered their empires there. The US did not allow its allies to extract any revenge from Japan.
After the USA achieves its goals, it is quite possible that the Quad and its members may also be abandoned in a similar fashion, as the US pursues its goals in Asia. Buyer beware.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by ramana »

I still don't see how Quad translates to a military alliance.
It looks like a group of maritime nations holding exercise with US winking and implying its more than that.
If it's to replicate the WWII Land and Ocean strategy, at that time Inia was a British colony and it was Brtian that derived benefit from the alliance.
What does US offer India in Quad ?

In fact US runs FONOPS on India to remind who is dominant in Indian Ocean.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by Pratyush »

ramana wrote: What does US offer India in Quad ?
1) A bait that quad can turn into a military alliance at some point in the future. But this is fundamentally at odds with Indian strategic thought and culture.

2) before the Ukraine mess and the US stupidity in fomenting that trouble. In my more innocent moments i used to think that India will supplant US as the global hegemon. Following a catastrophic US PRC conflict.

But not any more. The US cannot be allowed to continue in it's current ways. If India is not able to develop capacity in terms of beating PRC alone. India i am afraid will suffer the same fate as Ukraine in the hands of PRC with USA cheering on from the sidelines.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by kit »

Pratyush wrote:
ramana wrote: What does US offer India in Quad ?
1) A bait that quad can turn into a military alliance at some point in the future. But this is fundamentally at odds with Indian strategic thought and culture.

2) before the Ukraine mess and the US stupidity in fomenting that trouble. In my more innocent moments i used to think that India will supplant US as the global hegemon. Following a catastrophic US PRC conflict.

But not any more. The US cannot be allowed to continue in it's current ways. If India is not able to develop capacity in terms of beating PRC alone. India i am afraid will suffer the same fate as Ukraine in the hands of PRC with USA cheering on from the sidelines.
I would go as far as to say who in his right mind would think the US would help India militarily in a conflict with PRC ?! ., they did NOT do it even during Kargil. There would never be any overt support, to be sure.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by Deans »

ramana wrote:I still don't see how Quad translates to a military alliance.
It looks like a group of maritime nations holding exercise with US winking and implying its more than that.
Ramanaji, I am glad someone as erudite as you thinks so.

It is not a military alliance when India faces the threat of sanctions for buying military equipment from Russia. Neither is it an alliance
when our most serious national security concern ( state sponsored terrorism) is not addressed. Australia's govt changes each year and they may
well be a govt that is less committed to Quad than the current one.

I had argued (in a paper for a US think tank written by one of my former employees), that for QUAD to be a semblance of a military alliance, there are some easily implementable things like:
- Drone base in India, where US drones monitor terrorist activity in POK & KP Province
- Sharing of satellite intel (I believe it happens in a limited way).
- Sharing of info on the acoustic fingerprint of Chinese submarines
-Monitoring of Indian ocean & choke point maritime traffic ( as mentioned in an earlier post).
-Training of US forces in COIN, in Kashmir (which will send a message about the status of Kashmir).
- Lease on attractive terms of US hardware.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by Cyrano »

After seeing how the US and the west pounced on India few months ago regarding its stand on Ukraine war, Indian Govt may actually be glad that the QUAD is NOT a military alliance.

We have no need, appetite or bandwidth to deal with increased expectations in such alliances where we are expected to keep paying for having been granted a seat at the table and get up and dance obediently whenever called upon. I'm convinced that's the attitude of the other 3 in the QUAD though they may not say it or openly show it.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by Dilbu »

Russia slams Quad after India defends it
The United States is planning to expand NATO's presence in the Asia Pacific region using the Quad, Russia has alleged even as India has of late defended the four-nation coalition, dismissing opposition to it as a ‘unilateralist’ approach rooted in the desire to control choices of other nations. “In the Asia-Pacific region, the United States and its allies are also creating restricted blocs, trying to draw the greatest number of states into their ranks based on anti-Russian or anti-Chinese principles,” Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of the National Security Council of Russia, said at a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Tashkent. “This can be vividly demonstrated by the arrangements under the AUKUS and QUAD,” he added.
Patrushev made the comment about the Quad in Tashkent soon after External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said at an event in Bangkok that the entire Indo-Pacific region could be benefited by delivery of public goods by the four-nation coalition.

“If there are reservations (about the Quad) in any quarter, these stem from a desire to exercise a veto on the choices of others. And possibly a unilateralist opposition to collective and cooperative endeavours,” Jaishankar said, delivering a ecture at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok. The External Affairs Minister’s comment was apparently intended to dismiss criticism of the Quad by China and Russia.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by Dilbu »

India is coming under a bit of pressure in QUAD.
All eyes on India as Quad allies US, Japan, Australia call out China, Russia at Hawaii meet
New Delhi: The US, Japan and Australia made some strong statements against China and Russia over the weekend in Hawaii that may well set the tone for the next meeting of Quad, but India — a neighbour of Beijing and a strategic partner of Moscow — has always avoided calling them out publicly in such multilateral forums.
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin hosted Australia’s Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Richard Marles, and Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada at the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command headquarters in Hawaii Saturday, as part of the Trilateral Defense Ministers’ Meeting (TDMM).

This time, the TDMM, which last met in Singapore in June, took place right after US President Joe Biden released the Pacific Partnership Strategy for the Pacific Islands Forum, which stated that the “pressure and economic coercion by the People’s Republic of China” has led to the “undermining the peace, prosperity, and security of the region, and by extension, of the United States”.

At the TDMM in Hawaii, all the countries – the US, Japan and Australia – that are also part of the Quad, said China and Russia are “trying to dismantle” the rules-based international world order.

According to strategic and diplomatic sources, as the TDMM gathers more steam, it is inevitable that the alliance will begin to dominate the agenda in Quad, pushing India to call out China and Russia more openly and publicly.

India is not part of this TDMM alliance. However, as part of the Quad, these countries carry out a joint maritime military exercise ‘Malabar’ even as India rejects any kind of military linkages with the Quad.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by g.sarkar »

Duplicate. Already posted.
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