Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

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g.sarkar
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.npr.org/2021/09/23/10396982 ... hite-house
5 Things To Know About Biden's Quad Summit With Leaders Of India, Australia And Japan
September 23, 2021

When President Biden hosts the leaders of Japan, Australia and India at the White House on Friday, it will be part of a push, analysts say, to reorient U.S. foreign policy away from long wars and traditional alliances in Europe and instead focus on countering a fast-rising foe: China.
The four leaders will be meeting for the second time this year as part of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, founded in the aftermath of the 2004 Asian tsunami. In recent years, analysts say the group has emerged as the most important democratic bulwark against China's burgeoning power.
Here are five things to know about Friday's meeting.
It's in person, and that's a big deal in a pandemic
This is Biden's first face-to-face summit with all the Quad leaders: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga. For some of them, it's a rare trip abroad during the pandemic. Modi visited Bangladesh in March, but this is his first trip beyond India's immediate neighborhood since early 2020.
The Quad leaders met virtually back in March, and issued a joint statement about the importance of "the rule of law [and] freedom of navigation" — references to what all four countries consider as China's illegitimate claims in the South China Sea. They also agreed to work together to try to boost the production and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines.
This time, they're expected to survey progress on vaccine exports and discuss further cooperation on 5G telecommunications technology, cyber security, maritime exercises and intelligence sharing.
"The stranglehold that China's had on the manufacturing and development of certain technologies impacts all of our countries, so I see a lot of scope for [Quad] cooperation for emerging technologies and opening up new supply chains," Richard M. Rossow, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, recently told reporters.
"I think the in-person Quad summit reflects a political reality that four countries who in a pandemic have seen their own significant levels of turmoil and losses individually but have come together to push capacity-building in times of crisis," says New Delhi-based strategic affairs expert Shruti Pandalai. "In March, you set out a vision. This is about operationalizing that vision with deliverables."
One of those deliverables is a ramped-up supply of COVID-19 vaccines for developing countries, which Biden spoke about Wednesday at a virtual summit on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly. "Our Quad partnership with India, Japan and Australia is on track to help produce at least 1 billion vaccine doses in India to boost the global supply by the end of 2022," he said.
Other deliverables may include a possible agreement to build secure semiconductor chip supply chains and fresh promises to reduce carbon emissions and boost clean energy.
.....
Gautam
chetak
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by chetak »

KL Dubey wrote:^^According to your logic EAM Jaishankar must be the worst of both worlds...babu and poltoo rolled into one big goofer who ties up these arrangements ?

IMHO, Jaishankar is the best EAM that we have had so far.

we have zero politicians of international stature who are capable of understanding strategy, geopolitics, and the shifting play of international relations while really appreciating the core concerns that drive various countries and their true motivations when dealing with us as a culture and as a nation state while also simultaneously capable of formulating any credible policy, rooted in realpolitik that addresses these factors.

that is why we do not have a coherent and consistent national policy that is always mindful of our supreme national interests and that is why the congis and commies deal with the the pakis differently from the BJP and the pakis are now so used to being mollycoddled by the long continuing colonial era mentality of preferential, and poisonously differential and appeasement filled britshit infiltrated congi, commie, lootyens ecosystem that they have panicked with the BJP's unexpected but very correct inimical treatment of these ummah scum.

Jaishankar corrects most of these systemic weaknesses and his erudition coupled with his unmistakable but polished forcefulness towards those who would harm India and her interests leave no doubts in anyone's mind as to where he is coming from and where the red lines are drawn. The darbaari and bazaari babooze are not able to wag their tail with the guy who has probably forgotten more than what they all put together know
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by NRao »

Australian spy chiefs in ‘full court press’ to sell AUKUS
.....

With Foreign Minister Marise Payne and Defence Minister Peter Dutton also in America, the unprecedented delegation shows the intention for the pact goes far deeper than buying nuclear submarines. It is aimed at underpinning the rapid evolution of Australia’s defences to include space, missiles, quantum computing, artificial intelligence and grey warfare on the internet.

And in a sign that Canberra’s response to Beijing’s aggression is more broadly based than the Anglosphere AUKUS, Australia’s intelligence bosses have been joined in Washington by their counterparts from India and Japan for a spy chiefs meeting of the strategic dialogue known as the Quad.

.....

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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by chetak »

NRao wrote:Australian spy chiefs in ‘full court press’ to sell AUKUS
.....

With Foreign Minister Marise Payne and Defence Minister Peter Dutton also in America, the unprecedented delegation shows the intention for the pact goes far deeper than buying nuclear submarines. It is aimed at underpinning the rapid evolution of Australia’s defences to include space, missiles, quantum computing, artificial intelligence and grey warfare on the internet.

And in a sign that Canberra’s response to Beijing’s aggression is more broadly based than the Anglosphere AUKUS, Australia’s intelligence bosses have been joined in Washington by their counterparts from India and Japan for a spy chiefs meeting of the strategic dialogue known as the Quad.
.....
"Curiouser and curiouser!" cried Alice

the frogs aren't so upset for no reason...

a mere cancelled commercial deal wouldn't have pissed off so badly, the frogs along with the major partners of the EU. There is something untoward cooking and the europeans seem to think that it has a distinct anglo saxon flavor.

It could also be a chance for India

Amid the tensions between the 3 NATO countries, this could be a chance for India to deepen her ties with france.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by NRao »

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1 ... 8672077830 ----->
Pentagon drawing pretty sharp lines between AUKUS and the Quad from the podium today.

"Fundamentally these are two different arrangements," spox John Kirby said. "I wouldn't conflate the two."
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by sanjaykumar »

Heard Niazi tried to crash the Quad. He thought it was Quaid.
NRao
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by NRao »

Quad must be a seagoing deterrent

It will be decades before Australia deploys its nuclear submarines. All the Quad members have an interest in filling that maritime gap.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by chetak »

NRao wrote:Quad must be a seagoing deterrent

It will be decades before Australia deploys its nuclear submarines. All the Quad members have an interest in filling that maritime gap.

One can foresee a time when the same may be deployed against India too, especially as geopolitics reorient and interests shift.

It's just a minor matter of feeding in new coordinates into the nav systems and skulking about in new waters.

These guys will just not let India rise and they would petulantly postulate not only the theorization but also the inevitable follow on presumption that a powerful India will necessarily be hegemonistic in her approach.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by chetak »

NRao wrote:https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1 ... 8672077830 ----->
Pentagon drawing pretty sharp lines between AUKUS and the Quad from the podium today.

"Fundamentally these are two different arrangements," spox John Kirby said. "I wouldn't conflate the two."
So, what the pentagon is effectively saying is,

In the QUAD, India will be the 12th man and in the aukus, India has been relegated to a mere spectator sent away to one of the nose bleed seats

so anyone who saw advantages for India in the aukus, is eating humble pie

this is fast turning out to be a damp squib

all sizzle and no steak
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by Pratyush »

I have never understood the need of Indians to grab defeat when no defeat has been received. Or has been intended by the parties to the conversation.

A symbol of emotional need for validation perhaps.

I have asked this question at least once before. But have not received any response to it.

1) What were our expectations from quad?

2)Has the existence of AUKUS totally made the realisation of such goals impossible?

3) Does AUKUS mean that India and other members of the quad cannot enter into any alliance in the future?

The correct answer to the above questions is we don't really know?

In the absence of clarity on this topic and claiming defeat is like Guru Dronacharya giving up his arms with incomplete information and ending up losing his head.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by SRajesh »

Hmm are we to assume that the statements on COVID, vaccine, technology is a smokescreen covering what the PM Morrison was alluding to cyber-security and behind the scene there is something happening be it cybersecurity, maritime security yada yada!!
I know will be getting lampooned by the 'Silverbacks' in the group, but I still feel are we being led up the proverbial 'Garden path'
I fervently wish to be proved wrong.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by kit »

Wonders why the QUAD does these naval exercises if there is no military dimension to it
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by Pratyush »

This is just a talking shop that has the potential to be a mutually beneficial alliance.

The statement made may be quite bland. But they are still quite interesting. In it that it tells me that quad is shaping up to be a conduit for increasing Japanese industrial investments. US industrial manufacturing and Australia raw materials to fuel Indian economic growth in order to match the monster that PRC will become by 2040 to 2050.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by Pratyush »

kit wrote:Wonders why the QUAD does these naval exercises if there is no military dimension to it
A military exercise is conducted to get to know each other. Learn more about the capacity and procedures. So that if and when the decision to build a military alliance is taken. The militaries are ready to go.

This is just a preparatory step.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by chetak »

Pratyush wrote:I have never understood the need of Indians to grab defeat when no defeat has been received. Or has been intended by the parties to the conversation.

A symbol of emotional need for validation perhaps.
I have asked this question at least once before. But have not received any response to it.
1) What were our expectations from quad?
2)Has the existence of AUKUS totally made the realisation of such goals impossible?
3) Does AUKUS mean that India and other members of the quad cannot enter into any alliance in the future?
The correct answer to the above questions is we don't really know?
In the absence of clarity on this topic and claiming defeat is like Guru Dronacharya giving up his arms with incomplete information and ending up losing his head.

there is no element of defeat but there is the realization that we are being condemned to remain on the sidelines if we do not assert ourselves.

the first almost seventy odd years were spent in kowtowing to extraterritorial influences that manifested from the time that the britshits realized that they would not be able to hold on to colonial India and this was well before 1947.

Independence, especially when romantically portrayed as the freedom struggle and satyagraha strives to camouflage the high levels of political violence that the britshits unleashed on the Hindus.

The jinnah walas had plenty of motive for that because they were encouraged and allowed to brutalize the majority and in doing so, they actually played into the hands of the britshits while ghandhy was subtly tasked to keep the majority subdued, quiet and docile despite the most brutal of provocations by the muslims and he kept singing his impotent "Ishwar @.... tero naam", when the Hindus should have actually been singing "dara singh ka l@nd" and defending their faith

one conjectures that he may have been destined for a meeting with a lamp post had not a young maharashtrian intervened and needlessly made a martyr out of a habitual autocrat and hypocrite. He delayed our "independence" at least by a couple of decades, if not more The britshits would have been badly buggered in WWII, had ghandhy done his satyagraha to stop Indian troops from fighting for the britshits but he did not

the commies in India are actually an offshoot of the padres, the other side of the coin as it were but narratives were slanted then, as even now, to portray them as being of russian or bolshevik inspiration, and a few desi commie earthworms were eulogized and shown as dining with stalin, partying with lenin, manifestoing with marx, and jerking off with engels for that much desired commie happy ending

In the name of the QUAD, the anglo saxons have sought to distance us from the russkis, and the britshits kicked up a huge political fuss when we chose the rafale instead of the typhoon.

we were coerced into signing many alphabet soup agreements with the amerikis which has effectively constrained our strategic elbow room as well as tactical options when using US made weapon systems.

the anglo saxons have been carefully herding us in a specific direction for over a decade now. The aussies have just rejoined the party.

so which part of this anglo saxon narrative do you not see

the pieces are there for all to see.

join them together as you see fit, in some other way, perhaps

or will we go on forever with this विधवा विलाप of "snatching victory from the jaws of defeat"
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by Pratyush »

I had posted a lengthy reply to you. But the forum ate it.

Any way, my point is simple. Anglo Saxon s are going to be a spent power in the next few decades. AUKUS will not make any difference to this outcome.

Our job is to focus on developing our own capacity to be able to deal with any thing the PRC can do in 2040 or 2050.

I think that QUAD can help accomplish this goal.

So why so much emotional atyachar over AUKUS?
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by S_Madhukar »

Well if we invested better in our own defence tech, then anyone else would have acknowledged us as the prime maritime power in IOR. We should have had a dozen nuke subs by now considering we started operating one in the last century. Not that we need anyone to appoint us chowkidars but we just don’t do things quick enough and show visible strength.
For the average Anglo a retarded Anglo is still considered capable until they see a non-Anglo who can kick their ass frequently like the Cheenis have done.
So no need to lose sleep over Aukus it is all family business. Surprised that CA wasn’t added to make Caukus but then they may have some French sympathies and irrelevant as NATO power
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by SinghS »

India is uniquely placed in the current world order. Our policies have served us well till date. We need to keep growing our economy, manufacturing, science & technology and indigenous content in the defense while not getting involved in any conflict. It is all right to be friendly or appear friendly with all the sides including Russia, US, UK, Australia, France, Japan, Iran & Saudi.

India would do well to wait until the natural rivalries of others weaken them; and we remain strong by avoiding conflicts and focusing on ensuring safety on borders and maintaining good governance at home.

US and UK knows very well that, India is with QUAD as long as China and Pak are our enemies. They know too well that India won't be a sidekick for the local don as they are.

China knows too well that a kick in rear by India would destroy the image she has cultivated so assiduously. They can't overwhelm us any day, not today and not in future. Nukes would send them back to stone age. They have come to know that rhetoric, blackmailing, threatening and psychological games won't do any good now. They now know very well that they can't make an example out of us. They would now look to sidestep us or any other face losing conflict and somehow assert themselves on the world stage.

The current fight is between China & US....with added complexity of NATO being used to contain Russia, QUAD for China (when it fights with neighbors ) and AUKUS for China, in case she tries to skip needling Japan, India along with other lightweight countries and go after the US interests.

US is trying to build rings around China because China may sidestep local issues and focus on undermining US.

India with its past record and policies would do well to largely follow them with suitable modification from time to time. My 2 bits.
Last edited by SinghS on 25 Sep 2021 17:12, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by chetak »

Pratyush wrote:I had posted a lengthy reply to you. But the forum ate it.

Any way, my point is simple. Anglo Saxon s are going to be a spent power in the next few decades. AUKUS will not make any difference to this outcome.

Our job is to focus on developing our own capacity to be able to deal with any thing the PRC can do in 2040 or 2050.

I think that QUAD can help accomplish this goal.

So why so much emotional atyachar over AUKUS?
This has been posted by Gautam ji on the Indo US relations thread and it pretty much spells out the same things : concerns and inconsistencies on the QUAD as well as the aukus

g.sarkar wrote:https://www.rediff.com/news/column/raje ... 210925.htm
What Did Modi's Washington Visit Achieve?
RAJEEV SRINIVASAN, September 25, 2021



This autumn has been cruel to India. Not only is the instantaneous collapse of the Afghan government a grave concern for India, based on entirely likely new terrorism threats, but then there is the obvious downgrading of the Quad partnership in the wave of the brand-new AUKUS grouping. The Financial Times believes that the Quad will become non-military.

In a sense, this is not news for India, as it was clear nobody from the Quad would send boots on the ground to help India in case the Chinese invade.

But it was tone-deaf for the Biden administration to announce the AUKUS deal just days before the first in-person Quad summit during his term.

The other two Quad partners, Japan and India, were apparently left in the dark by the Americans. So was France, which was furious at the sudden cancellation of its own $40 billion submarine deal with Australia.

At the UN General Assembly, President Biden delivered soaring rhetoric about global unity (which was contrasted with then President Trump's anti-globalist message): 'We are not seeking a new Cold War or the world divided into rigid blocs.' That would have gone over a lot better if he hadn't just abandoned his Afghan allies, or created a new AUKUS bloc. Antonio Gutierrez, the UN secretary-general, said pointedly, and perhaps as a direct rebute to Biden: 'A breakdown in trust is leading to a breakdown in values. Promises, after all, are worthless if people don't see results in their daily lives.' 'Failure to deliver creates space for some of the darkest impulses of humanity. It provides oxygen for easy-fixes, pseudo-solutions and conspiracy theories. It is kindling to stoke ancient grievances.'
Cultural supremacy. Ideological dominance. Violent misogyny. The targeting of the most vulnerable including refugees and migrants.' The US has a massive credibility gap today, because its rhetoric simply does not match its actions on the ground. In many ways, the US is ceding ground to China, for instance in its reluctance to push for an understanding of the possible lab origins of the Wuhan virus.

Open-source intelligence from the DRASTIC group found that Peter Daszak of Ecohealth had sought to cooperate with the Wuhan Institute of Virology in creating an unusual feature, a 'furan cleavage site', in bat coronaviruses, that would make them infectious to humans.

Furthermore, the US is under a Democratic presidency. We remember how badly the Democratic Clinton and Obama administrations treated India: With disdain and disrespect. Not to say that Republicans are wonderful, but these days the Democratic party has been taken over by their fringe leftists, and is remarkably 'woke'. Thus there is no chance that anything of substance can come out of Modi-Biden meetings. The only thing that the US is seeking is weapons sales. Brahma Chellaney has pointed out that all that was actually accomplished by the high-voltage sales program called the India-US nuclear deal is that India bought a lot of US weapons. According to India Today, there is a lot on the table today as well.

If it were up to me, I'd focus on the submarine hunter-killer P8i Poseidons, and would have nothing to do with the Norwegian developed system, as the Scandinavians are known busybodies. But the problem, as always, is that India opens its checkbook in return for no diplomatic or military leverage. The US sells technology that is obsolete or second-rate. For instance, despite much negotiation from India, the US refuses to sell its strategic nuclear submarine technology to India: the very same stuff it is now selling to Australia.

And there is also the threat of sanctions if India deploys its Russian S-400 anti-missile technology, which incidentally China also has.

The fact is that Biden has now created a new military alliance, which consists only of white, Anglosphere nations.

He has either thoughtlessly or deliberately snubbed the two non-white members of the Quad, that is India and Japan. And perhaps other Indo-Pacific players such as Indonesia. The involvement of Britain, increasingly a marginal power even in Europe, and practically non-existent in the Indo-Pacific, is pure Atlanticism.
.....
Gautam

my last on this
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by SRajesh »

And reading PM Suga’s statement from QUAD:
He wants unkil to lift sanctions on produce from Fukushima :shock:
So much for containing the lizard
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by chetak »

Rsatchi wrote:And reading PM Suga’s statement from QUAD:
He wants unkil to lift sanctions on produce from Fukushima :shock:
So much for containing the lizard
the japs are reportedly only a few screw driver turns away from nuclearizing and also weaponizing.

Launch vehicle wise also they are in the same boat and ready to go and they have plenty of spare screw drivers too.

and they also have proven launch vehicle capabilities.

the cheeni will not fiddle too much with them
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by Pratyush »

Chetak, with this level of emotional maturity people may succeed in juvenile romantic relationships.

International great power relationship cannot be managed without level headed and clear cut thinking. Too much emotional reactions cloud the judgement of people.

If you are convinced that AUKUS is a kick in the groin of India. I can't change your mind.

Because I for one am quite satisfied with quad not being a military alliance for the moment.

My reason is as follows, a military alliance is always founded to be bulwark against another power. Sometimes it is important to have flexibility of action by not being in a treaty alliance.

Quad not being a military alliance for the moment is a good thing. Because the threat potential of turning into a military alliance allows for the possibility of a diplomatic solution to significant issues over the next few years to a decade.

In the meantime India must build our own military strength.

I understand that you are convinced that AUKUS is kick in the groin of India. Nothing will change your mind about it.

Overwrought emotional reactions of jilted lovers are not useful in dealing with international relations.

The last few posts on the thread have been pure noise.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by SRajesh »

Pratyushji
If its all 'White Noise' and if there is to be 'Noise Filter' again I am quite happy with that.
All I want to know is : How to build the Military Strength and I am sure we are talking about these:
MIC, advanced SSN tech, Engine Tech that's what I want to know where or how will we achieve it.
Being dharmic we are reticent of stealing tech
So who's gonna give it to us on a platter a la AUKUS to 'That fellow down Under'!!
Apart from image building what will we be gaining from the assorted memberships!
UNSC and NSG has been going on for a ??decade or more now
As far as QUAD is concerned yes I would wait and watch and see what happens when S400 is deployed
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by Pratyush »

Why must it be given to us.

We have to develop the capacity we need.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by Kati »

Pratyush wrote:I had posted a lengthy reply to you. But the forum ate it.

Any way, my point is simple. Anglo Saxon s are going to be a spent power in the next few decades. AUKUS will not make any difference to this outcome.

Our job is to focus on developing our own capacity to be able to deal with any thing the PRC can do in 2040 or 2050.

I think that QUAD can help accomplish this goal.

So why so much emotional atyachar over AUKUS?
Well, the only crumbs we'll get is that unkil won't use "Hoomaan rights aboose in Cashmere" in near future ...... which will cause TSP a massive heartache. That's all.
Something is better than nothing ....
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by Pratyush »

This HR card has value only if we give it value. It has no bite. So why be bothered by the bark?
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by g.sarkar »

https://au.news.yahoo.com/eyes-beijing- ... 27521.html
In the eyes of Beijing, the Quad poses a more menacing threat than Aukus
Kim Sengupta, 25 September 2021

The Quad is a “sinister gang” whose members are “four ward mates with four different diseases” who “will become cannon fodder” if they dare to take on China, warned Global Times, the mouthpiece of the Communist Party in Beijing.
The ire expressed in the editorial was focused on the first in-person summit between the leaders of the so-called “gang”: the US, Japan, India and Australia, at the White House. The US president, Joe Biden, continued the newspaper, is putting “America first” even more than the former president, Donald Trump.
The last meeting of the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue), held virtually in March, announced the delivery of a billion doses of Covid-19 vaccine to countries in Asia by the end of 2022. On this occasion, however, China and its aggressive policies is the main issue on the agenda. The group poses, strategically and militarily, more of a problem for Beijing than the much publicised Aukus agreement between Australia, UK and the US with its building of a nuclear submarine fleet for Australia.
All four member states have substantial armed presence in the Indo-Pacific, are augmenting it to counter Chinese expansion, and all feel that they face a threat from China, although the language used to described that threat is tempered in public pronouncements.
Two of the members have been in confrontation with China: India on the Himalayan border and Japan over disputed waters and Senkaku islands in the East China Sea.
Last month the navies of the Quad countries carried out the Malabar exercises off the coast of Guam. It originated as an annual bilateral naval drill between the US and India in the 1990s, then fell into abeyance but has now been reinvigorated on a larger scale to include Japan and then Australia. In April, these navies took part in the La Perouse exercise in the Bay of Bengal with France, in line with the Macron government’s decision to have a more prominent military presence in the Indo-Pacific. Despite the Aukus row between Australia and France over the cancellation of a submarine contract, more such exercises with French participation are expected to take place in the future.
The fact that this is the first face-to-face meeting since the Quad was set up 14 years ago is a sign of the group seeking to play a much more effective role. And that has come about directly as a result of China’s uncompromising approach on issues ranging from ownership of mineral-rich waters, crackdowns in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, threats to invade Taiwan and the coronavirus pandemic.
India had, until recently, been lukewarm about the Quad, but the clashes on its northern border with China appear to have concentrated minds in Narendra Modi’s government – it is now an enthusiastic member.
.....
Gautam
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by Cain Marko »

With all the RnD about aukus vs quad, here is a CNBC analysis based on a game theory simulation, supposedly used by CIA for 90% accuracy.
https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEF ... id=US%3Aen
Conclusions:
QUAD is here to stay, ain't going anywhere
Will not be aggressive in provoking China
Others will likely join.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by Cyrano »

China's reaction is a better barometer than public pronouncements by Quad nations of what they are doing/can do.
nam
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by nam »

Military just the combination of US+India+Japan is a massive naval, land & air power. Once we cross 5T, it will probably be the richest block as well.

Land: around 3 million active troops.
Sea: 250+150+150= 550 ships+ nuke boats+ carriers
Air: 2500+600+500= 3600 aircraft!

It is a simple fact that this is the most powerful military block on this planet. The key is India. The US know it, Chinis know it. And Chinis have been trying hard to keep us out of it. But like the Paks, they cannot get over their superiority complex and went on to do their adventure on LAC.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by Cyrano »

War is about the will to fight, China knows they will lose right there, force numbers are secondary. Galwan made that clear.

India can defend itself today even in a full scale War with the chinese and inflict severe punishment. Quad opens other options for us, which are always "optional". The present Govt and forces leadership are clear on this as well. 3T/5T/10T is largely irrelevant in this. It may help us recover and replenish faster but if it goes that far, our adversaires will be left far far worse so even in that situation, size of the economy will have little bearing relative to them.
ramana
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by ramana »

Cain Marko wrote:With all the RnD about aukus vs quad, here is a CNBC analysis based on a game theory simulation, supposedly used by CIA for 90% accuracy.
https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEF ... id=US%3Aen
Conclusions:
QUAD is here to stay, ain't going anywhere
Will not be aggressive in provoking China
Others will likely join.
Quad is no longer QUAD
It has become a sea cub scout thing.

Australia is really worried.
Second time after Imperial Japan sweep through Pacific and Indian Oceans.
Yet has trade ties with China via RCEP.

So countries will hedge their bets as they negotiate choppy oceans.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by KL Dubey »

Whether Quad, Tri, Penta, Hexa, whatever...its all good. India will benefit without "needing" any of these.

NaMo-led India is getting more assertive and confident. Our capabilities have started to move up fast. Every global interaction features ever more assertive speeches (like today's Unga speech giving Ungals to China/Pak) and yields more military/business commitments.

The CCP and the PLA are fundamentally paper tigers. They are highly unwilling for someone to call their bluff. India is the most likely one to do it in future. After the thrashing received from the Soviets in 1969 and being regularly roughed up by Indian Army jawans in various border scuffles, CCP/PLA usually pick on small countries in southeast asia, central asia etc and even then risk a bad outcome.

The only "western" country with a credible and serious presence in the Indian Ocean is France. They have 1.5 million citizens and permanent military presence of >7000 personnel in the western IOR. USA is present but could be a flake when it comes to the test. Australia, UK, etc are jokers of little consequence.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by Mort Walker »

KL Dubey wrote:Whether Quad, Tri, Penta, Hexa, whatever...its all good. India will benefit without "needing" any of these.

NaMo-led India is getting more assertive and confident. Our capabilities have started to move up fast. Every global interaction features ever more assertive speeches (like today's Unga speech giving Ungals to China/Pak) and yields more military/business commitments.

The CCP and the PLA are fundamentally paper tigers. They are highly unwilling for someone to call their bluff. India is the most likely one to do it in future. After the thrashing received from the Soviets in 1969 and being regularly roughed up by Indian Army jawans in various border scuffles, CCP/PLA usually pick on small countries in southeast asia, central asia etc and even then risk a bad outcome.

The only "western" country with a credible and serious presence in the Indian Ocean is France. They have 1.5 million citizens and permanent military presence of >7000 personnel in the western IOR. USA is present but could be a flake when it comes to the test. Australia, UK, etc are jokers of little consequence.
This is an uninformed opinion.

In the IOR to the edge of the Pacific, the PLA and PLA Navy are not to be taken for granted. They have sufficient ships + submarines and access through friendly ports of call through Myanmar which allows them into the Straits of Malacca. The Burma-China trade in raw materials and oil/gas is worth several billions of dollars a year. Keeping India involved in expensive high altitude warfare in the Himalayas is relatively cheap for the Chinese as it doesn't impede their naval expansion, but on the other hand deprives funds for the Indian Navy. It is an ideal situation for the PLA.

The French presence East Africa in places like Djibouti, the Reunion Islands and other islands in the western Indian Ocean are to primarily protect shipping lanes and French interests in their former protectorates/colonies. The US does the same, but has a larger presence between Diego Garcia and the Arabian Sea full of many strategic weapon systems, which can bring large amounts of fire power and supply several aircraft carrier task forces. In the IOR only the Indian Navy can bring sufficient resources which is why the US wanted India to sign the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) in the Obama administration back in 2016. The US political leadership has been flakey for the last 5-6 years, but US naval presence in the Indo-Pacific can not be written off.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by Pratyush »

Cain Marko wrote:With all the RnD about aukus vs quad, here is a CNBC analysis based on a game theory simulation, supposedly used by CIA for 90% accuracy.
https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEF ... id=US%3Aen
Conclusions:
QUAD is here to stay, ain't going anywhere
Will not be aggressive in provoking China
Others will likely join.
This captured my thought process quite well. In terms of quad not being a formalised military alliance. The flexibility of action it gives to all players.

The success and failure is dependent on the PRC political leadership. If PRC thinking about the potential war with 4 big power's or even more over the next few decades. Is able to alter it's behaviour. It's a win for the quad. I also agree with the analysis that Xi is the biggest obstacle to peace.

But ultimately, India will have to develop our own domestic economic capacity. Along with Military capacity. We have 30 years of peace to accomplish our goal.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by Karan M »

Pratyush wrote:This is just a talking shop that has the potential to be a mutually beneficial alliance.

The statement made may be quite bland. But they are still quite interesting. In it that it tells me that quad is shaping up to be a conduit for increasing Japanese industrial investments. US industrial manufacturing and Australia raw materials to fuel Indian economic growth in order to match the monster that PRC will become by 2040 to 2050.
Well said. A naval alliance (for now) with significant industrial benefits likely. What's not to like.

AUKUS etc is nothing compared to the heft India brings to the table. Aus has a, population of what? 25 Mn? UK some 67 Mn? Can these two countries meet the industrial and military needs of an actual alliance? Hardly.

Will be more Intel sharing and five eyes style facility expansions and even the SSNs will take a decade to arrive. Considering Aussie program mgmt in the past, perhaps even more. Even Japan will have to park a significant portion of its fleet to protect the island chain /homeland.

India is the only game in town with the population demographic, the military strength (growing slowly but steadily), and the will to take on PRC if push comes to shove. If the US, etc want us to take on more, they've to transfer tech and industry supply chains accordingly. Even the latter will help.

Till then we've the best of worlds. No compulsions to be dragged into a destructive shooting war, and yet the benefit of bring part of a PRC +1 strategy to broadbase supply chains.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by SRajesh »

To all the BRFites:
Could I ask to please give this(my crazy coffee-driven, as I don't imbibe anything else)theory a glance:
Was QUAD just to lull India and AUSUK was the real-deal all along.
The prime aim of AUSUK is to 'Containing India reclaiming her lost borders' and to prevent 'India Rising'
The reason I say this is look what's happened to the 'Angloshpere' post-Prestrioka/Glosnost : an unhindered rise of China whether intended or unintended. The WASP thought a 'Candy-Store' operating China will be pliant post-USSR break-up but that turned 180 degrees completely.
Now COVID, POST COVID, Evergrande collapse, arrest of Billionaires et all , maybe the the Anglosphere feel the end is well neigh for the Lizard and hence preparing for the day to prevent any non-gora raising!!
Even if China falls India will be prevented from reclaiming POK and Aksai Chin and break up of Paxtan as this would lead to easy access for CAR gas reserves for India.
Yes A & A have announced billions investment into green energy but in the short term fossil fuel is the need of the hour.
And I can assure this writing is not the result of high-grade fumes!! :lol:
nam
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by nam »

The offer from India to quad is simple. We will keep half of PLA occupied on the frozen heights of Tibet, in return from industrial investment.

How will CCP capture Taiwan or SCS or any other island with half of the PLA on LAC. Will PLAN ships sail on to the Taiwanese land?

Once in a while we should invite USAF to deploy for month or so in to a airbase in Ladakh or in the NE. Will keep PLAAF busy as well.
Karan M
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by Karan M »

Disagree. US wanted an alliance of partners to go to war, with minimal fuss, with PRC. India especially is nobody's sidekick. The US has defaulted to its traditional allies, Australia and UK for the teeth. But the fundamental fact is their combined military capabilities or industrial or economic, can't offset India. So don't get too alarmed or upset. Quad has its place and will continue to push forward.

Rsatchi wrote:To all the BRFites:
Could I ask to please give this(my crazy coffee-driven, as I don't imbibe anything else)theory a glance:
Was QUAD just to lull India and AUSUK was the real-deal all along.
The prime aim of AUSUK is to 'Containing India reclaiming her lost borders' and to prevent 'India Rising'
The reason I say this is look what's happened to the 'Angloshpere' post-Prestrioka/Glosnost : an unhindered rise of China whether intended or unintended. The WASP thought a 'Candy-Store' operating China will be pliant post-USSR break-up but that turned 180 degrees completely.
Now COVID, POST COVID, Evergrande collapse, arrest of Billionaires et all , maybe the the Anglosphere feel the end is well neigh for the Lizard and hence preparing for the day to prevent any non-gora raising!!
Even if China falls India will be prevented from reclaiming POK and Aksai Chin and break up of Paxtan as this would lead to easy access for CAR gas reserves for India.
Yes A & A have announced billions investment into green energy but in the short term fossil fuel is the need of the hour.
And I can assure this writing is not the result of high-grade fumes!! :lol:
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