Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

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Yagnasri
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by Yagnasri »

Why he want to spoil the good name earned by his father all over the nation just doing this rubbish thing? He could have contested the seat that was offered to him or wait for his opportunity. It is the same thing with Vasubdara Raje who wanted her son to be a minister in GoI while she was the CM. When that was refused picked a fight with BJP national leadership.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by IndraD »

Haider Ali Khan the first Muslim candidate fielded by the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance for the upcoming Uttar Pradesh polls since 2014. Earlier this week, the BJP had announced that it would be fighting the election in alliance with Apna Dal (S) and Nishad Party, he is from apna dal
chetak
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by chetak »

Deans wrote:
Sachin wrote:What are the political credentials of Utpal Parikkar S/o Manohar Parikkar? Was he an active worker for the BJP or RSS? Or is it the usual sense of entitlement which is playing here?
Son of Manohar Parrikar quits BJP, to contest as Independent from Panaji
Sense of entitlement.
He runs the family engineering firm and only expressed an interest in politics on the death of his father.
The concern the BJP has is that a loss in Panaji, the capital, will be a viewed as a big setback.
this guy will lose.
Yagnasri
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by Yagnasri »

He will divide BJP vote and ensure BJP lose also. That is the problem in a state where every seat counts.
chetak
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by chetak »

Yagnasri wrote:He will divide BJP vote and ensure BJP lose also. That is the problem in a state where every seat counts.
The BJP on Thursday fielded Atanasio Monserrate 'Babush' from Panaji.

apparently, monserrate has his own mass base which is what the BJP is banking on.

parrikar should have had some sense rather than being pigheaded.

a tactical retreat from panaji would have been wiser, perhaps to fight another day from panaji if he was so set on it.

he was being offered a choice of two other seats by the BJP but he refused.
Last edited by chetak on 24 Jan 2022 18:54, edited 1 time in total.
Yagnasri
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by Yagnasri »

Goa anyway is always a toss up state.

Only critical state is Punjab from national security angle. From what everyone is saying UP BJP may win and UK there is a fight with INC. But Punjab has too many new things and multiple fighters and paid media and opinions polls fully doing their paid services. From nation security angle it is vital that PAAPis are stopped from having any share in power. INC is also going full BIF. Expecting NDA to win now may be a tall order but with 4/5 parties/alliances fighting the elections anything may happen.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by chetak »

Yagnasri wrote:Goa anyway is always a toss up state.

Only critical state is Punjab from national security angle. From what everyone is saying UP BJP may win and UK there is a fight with INC. But Punjab has too many new things and multiple fighters and paid media and opinions polls fully doing their paid services. From nation security angle it is vital that PAAPis are stopped from having any share in power. INC is also going full BIF. Expecting NDA to win now may be a tall order but with 4/5 parties/alliances fighting the elections anything may happen.
funds are flowing in from across the border to get the aap elected.

the sidhu faction is also similarly blessed, one hears

the cheenis and the pakis will both make huge inroads if such a sorry result comes to pass.

"farmers" are also being triggered once again by the same people as earlier.

let's see how two pillars of democracy react to this new development. A lot of doubts will get cleared
Yagnasri
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by Yagnasri »

Narco funding also was always there. PAAPis efforts in 2017 was fortunately stopped with entire anti Khali vote base sided with INC and Captain to stop PAAPis. Now mafia queen may also join PAAPis just like she did in Delhi and make either PAAPis to win out right or share power with PAAPis. Long time dream of PAAPis is to have control on police forces. Now they may end up having it Punjab.

Fortunately one hears that PAAPis do not have the same voter support this time and the novelty is also gone. Plus large section of the Punjab must be very much worried about Khalis returning under PAAPis like last time. The so called Farmers also have their own party and their leadership last time was behind PAAPis. Now they are looking after themselves and they are also Khali supporters + Naxals. The seats in which these people seems to have some power is the same seats PAAPis won last time. So unless there is a underhand understanding both may end up fighting each other and cut into each other votes.

As I said too many variables and uncertainties.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by ramana »

Yagnasri wrote:Why he want to spoil the good name earned by his father all over the nation just doing this rubbish thing? He could have contested the seat that was offered to him or wait for his opportunity. It is the same thing with Vasubdara Raje who wanted her son to be a minister in GoI while she was the CM. When that was refused picked a fight with BJP national leadership.
He probably is under pressure from Kaka-type forces to split the BJP vote.
Nothing else explains his obstinacy to contest only in Panaji.
He is not spoiling his father's name which is cherished by all jingoes.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by vijayk »

छोटे चौधरी
@Tweeter_wapsi
The kind of massive org machinery BJP/RSS has built up in Uttar Pradesh can probably only be matched in Gujarat.
Whether 2014 or 2017 or 2019, the inroads were never as deep. Even at small villages,workers are campaigning.
Would be surprised if BJP gets less than 42-43% votes.
I hope so
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by Yagnasri »

In the last 3 elections, BJP has done well in UP. Is there any apparent reason for any significant reduction of their vote %? Prices? Unemployment? Law and order? Development or lack of it? COVID?
From all the accounts, no other issue is even being raised in UP other than prices and unemployment. Even the COVID response seems to be not getting any negative response from voters. Prices other than petrol prices are almost stable except periodical hicks. Unemployment - All the recruitment into GoUP jobs is done without any bribes, merit, etc. People know that. Job creation in the private sector is also reasonable compared to the SP and BSP periods. COVID response was bad at the initial stages of the 2nd wave, but after the initial lousy situation state had done well to contain the situation and relief measures were taken effectively by all neutral accounts.
Most importantly, the alternative in SP is terrible. Does anyone in UP want to return to Goonda Raj of SP and looting activities? Is there no fear in common people about the law and order situation in SP coming to power? Will the voters feel so bad about BJP they risk one more term to SP and its goondas? In projecting SP as the winner, the MSM which enjoyed handsome perks and what not under SP ruler, has helped BJP by creating the fear of SP returning to power. Now even many ordinary voters of BSP may end up voting for BJP to ensure the defeat of the SP. Remember the same thing that happened in Punjab in 2017 when many BJP and Akali voters voted to INC to ensure PAAPis defeats and stop Khalis's return.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by Ambar »

There are always microlevel electoral issues at play in assembly elections. The fuel and food price inflation is real despite the Disney figures that routinely comes out of govt agencies, the unseasonal rains and cold haven't helped matters. SaPa made "mehngai" and "berozgaari" the core issues understanding that (a) UP is still one of the poorest Indian states with a large migrant population and (b) UP is also one of India's youngest states, so issues related to unemployment gets amplified. The other potential vote % erosion is from western UP where the jaats seem to have forgotten the terror unleashed on their communities by shantidoots, add the fake anti-farm bill protests which gripped the region for a year then you have a real possibility of jaat+yadav+muslim combination, whereas in the previous elections the jaats overwhelmingly stood behind BJP.

Lastly, as we've witnessed over and over again including in WB Hindus are their own worst enemies. Some reliable sources are now reporting that the reason for Yogi Adityanath changing his seat from Ayodhya to Gorakhpur is because the BJP's internal assessment indicated that the CM may not win in Ayodhya. So why would people of Ayodhya vote out BJP after BJP delivered Ram Mandir ending 150 yr old legal battle ? Because the UP govt had to takeover and demolish several homes and businesses during the city re-planning ! We here overestimate hindu matters and its influence on electoral politics, BJP fully understands that hindu issues aren't even on the top 3 or top 5 issues in most elections, and hence they don't try to be a overt hindu party.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by Yagnasri »

Firstly YAN never changed his seat from Ayodhya to Gorakpur. Gorakpur was his MP seat for many decades. Ayodhya was never connected with any of his elections. The Ayodhya contest is a kite flying by paid MSM. Nothing more.

There is no evidence to suggest Jats forgotten anything. In fact entire UP seems to have wary of the return of the Goonda Raj of the SP. Particularly female voters and common people.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by Ambar »

There's nothing to indicate that Yogi Adityanath possibly contesting from Ayodhya was a MSM trial balloon, in any case its a good thing that he is contesting from Gorakphur . While i truly hope the jaats remember their plight in 2014 and never forget or forgive what SaPa did to them, it is also a fact that western UP was the eastern flank of the farmers protest. There have been multiple assaults on BJP workers including assaults and stone pelting on BJP MLAs (Jitendra Pal Singh, Umesh Malik , Pankaj Gupta to name a few) in the recent past in jat dominated areas. Lets not forget the people of W.Bengal have seen generations of violence and anemic economy but yet brought back TMC with a thumping majority. The same goes with Delhi which saw 2 deadly riots and 2 year long agitations for various causes but yet reelected AAP with a absolute majority. In politics, memories of the electorate are short.
ramana
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by ramana »

Daily Guardian on UP elections.

https://t.co/oqmo6PSp8r?s=09

Key is high turnout. All macro factors listed.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by V_Raman »

I am in chennai since last week - just finished my home quarantine

vegetable prices are very cheap. many of them are <rs. 30 per kg
no is is worried about petrol prices

they are worried about cooking oil prices though
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by vijayk »

https://twitter.com/iMac_too/status/1487426431256723456
iMac_too
@iMac_too
डकैत's outburst at India TV is quite revealing. He was playing facade of being neutral all the while but now he's panicked by Jaat Kisans' shift towards communal party
https://twitter.com/iMac_too/status/1487428509928935431
iMac_too
@iMac_too
I reckon few days ago he promised to BJP chaps he will remain neutral
Check the video
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by KL Dubey »

Meanwhile, excellent move by Amit Shah to keep trolling the RLD guy with "doors are open for alliance" and other statements. Sowing further dissension in the already fragile opposition ranks in the last 1-2 weeks leading into the election. :D

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 140973.cms

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/natio ... ats-365025

https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news ... nd-western
A senior RLD leader who is in the core committee of the party said on the condition of anonymity, “It is easy to make a calculation sitting in the war room by combining the vote shares of different castes and religions in an Assembly segment and draw the conclusion that we are winning, but the reality of each Assembly segment is different. Take the case of Siwalkhas seat, which is under the Baghpat Lok Sabha segment. There our leaders and supporters don’t want to vote for Ghulam Mohammad of the SP. The situation is the same in many other seats of Meerut, Baghpat and Mathura. I also believe we should have got more seats and even on some seats given to the RLD, SP leaders too are contesting. :D This is not sending the right message to our cadre. They wanted their own men in the seats. But I am still hopeful that in the last 2-3 days everyone will put their act together at the local level.”
It's advantage BJP either way...if RLD does not agree, there will be further dissatisfaction among their cadre that is already upset with the SP for going ahead with candidate declarations in several districts of west UP. If they agree and pull the plug on the SP at the last minute, it will be chaos/curtains for the SP anyway. BJP does not lose anything by giving 15-20 seats to RLD from their quota of 370 or so seats within NDA.

As usual, certain sections of the media are trying to spin this as a sign of "BJP weakness/insecurity" in the Jat-influenced areas of UP.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by vijayk »

https://twitter.com/RaviRanjanIn/status ... 8178978818
Interesting video ... women know exactly what they are getting with Modiji ... They are the hope for India
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by ramana »

V_Raman wrote:I am in chennai since last week - just finished my home quarantine

vegetable prices are very cheap. many of them are <rs. 30 per kg
no is is worried about petrol prices

they are worried about cooking oil prices though
Thanks for the snapshot. Hope other members comment on how things are in their areas.
ramana
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by ramana »

Try to read the latest India Today with YAN on cover.
achy
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by achy »

Out of all the five states elections, UP is more or less open and shut case. BJP should also win Uttarakhand, Manipur and perhaps Goa as well. Punjab is the most worrying case though. Modi and Yogi combo rocks in UP. With Modi as CarrotWaala and Yogi as DandaWaala, 7 out of 10 Hindus will likely vote for BJP giving it anything between 45-50% vote share and 275+ seats. UP is a completely polarized state now. Muslims were always polarized but now Hindus have also become polarized. In such a scenario, voter mobilization will be key. Muslims dont need much persuasion to go out for voting so it will be on BJP cadres to energize and facilitate their voters to go out and vote.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by khatvaanga »

Ambar wrote: While i truly hope the jaats remember their plight in 2014 and never forget or forgive what SaPa did to them, it is also a fact that western UP was the eastern flank of the farmers protest.
from what I am hearing, Shah's meet with Jat leaders / elders has worked wonders on ground. Whatever little RLD was gonna get will be wiped off - that is the sentiment I have heard. Have to sustain it for another 14 days. + high turnout.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by suryag »

ramana
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by ramana »

Probably a slush fund holder for Ajlaf Yadav.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by vijayk »

khatvaanga wrote:
Ambar wrote: While i truly hope the jaats remember their plight in 2014 and never forget or forgive what SaPa did to them, it is also a fact that western UP was the eastern flank of the farmers protest.
from what I am hearing, Shah's meet with Jat leaders / elders has worked wonders on ground. Whatever little RLD was gonna get will be wiped off - that is the sentiment I have heard. Have to sustain it for another 14 days. + high turnout.
Paging Dilbu ...
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by Pratyush »

ramana wrote:Probably a slush fund holder for Ajlaf Yadav.
He will not be so foolish to be leaving this kind of cash at just one location. There have to be multiple such individuals.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by Sachin »

ramana wrote:Probably a slush fund holder for Ajlaf Yadav.
Pratyush wrote:He will not be so foolish to be leaving this kind of cash at just one location. There have to be multiple such individuals.
:lol:. It is election time and slush fund holders will have to expose their hands as the money now needs to get into circulation. And that is the best time for the agencies to get better intelligence. A month back there was case of another slush fund holder losing a crore of funds in a few hours. Poor fellow had even hid the cash inside water tanks.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by nandakumar »

Need Dilbu to work his magic from now itself!!
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by rsingh »

nandakumar wrote:Need Dilbu to work his magic from now itself!!
Dilbu Saar has lost it a bit...........just like most of financial gurus.It is difficult to be correct every time. :((
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by nandakumar »

rsingh wrote:
nandakumar wrote:Need Dilbu to work his magic from now itself!!
Dilbu Saar has lost it a bit...........just like most of financial gurus.It is difficult to be correct every time. :((
Dilbu is the Warren Buffet of the polical dhaga. He can do no wrong. What seems like he getting it wrong for the moment is that the Great Man is getting it right for the Big Picture. Take that You Heathens!
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by Dilbu »

It is a bit like Kohli's captaincy. You seenear maulanas are not satisfied with my trophies in the cupboard but want more. And later will not hesitate to come after me with pitchforks if things don't pan out the way we expect :(( . No saar.. no thanks wonly. I will retire now from anti-jinxgiri. :mrgreen:
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by chetak »

Dilbu wrote:It is a bit like Kohli's captaincy. You seenear maulanas are not satisfied with my trophies in the cupboard but want more. And later will not hesitate to come after me with pitchforks if things don't pan out the way we expect :(( . No saar.. no thanks wonly. I will retire now from anti-jinxgiri. :mrgreen:
Dilbu ji

Just do your thing onlee.

Bhagavad Gita: Chapter 2, Verse 47
कर्मण्येवाधिकारस्ते मा फलेषु कदाचन |
मा कर्मफलहेतुर्भूर्मा ते सङ्गोऽस्त्वकर्मणि || 47 ||

BG 2.47: You have a right to perform your prescribed duties, but you are not entitled to the fruits of your actions. Never consider yourself to be the cause of the results of your activities, nor be attached to inaction.
ramana
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by ramana »

No Dilbu, rsingh was erroneous.
Please do your magic.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by arshyam »

Dilbu wrote:It is a bit like Kohli's captaincy. You seenear maulanas are not satisfied with my trophies in the cupboard but want more. And later will not hesitate to come after me with pitchforks if things don't pan out the way we expect :(( . No saar.. no thanks wonly. I will retire now from anti-jinxgiri. :mrgreen:
I'd go with Dhoni actually - you win some, you lose some, but the support of the aam junta (BRFites in this case) is solidly behind you. Kindly continue your anti-jinx saar...
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by anishns »

Get everything for free ration benefits and all and still not happy with Yogi :evil:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Sham_Sharma_Sh ... &context=3
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by rsingh »

Dilbu Saar, It was an attempt to bring your attention to the thread. I assume you were busy in harvesting water, solar energy, Charged practical energy from solar flare, Zin energy and what not. You are very busy and focused family man onree. It seems I managed to get you out of your lab. :mrgreen:
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by Dilbu »

BJP will lose onlee. :(( :(( :((
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by VinodTK »

Dilbu wrote:BJP will lose onlee. :(( :(( :((
Based on your earlier post I was concerned; Glad you are back :D
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by ramana »

One request. Can those familiar with Punjab do a seat by seat analysis of the Vidhan Sabha seats?
The party voteshare gives warm feeling but it's a seat by seat contest ultimately. Thanks.
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