Deans wrote:I've looked at the numbers in some detail. There are structural problems with the BJP which are evident in the last 3 state elections
(Guj, HP and Karnataka). It has little to do with Hindu vote consolidation.
In every single State election since 2014, the BJP's vote share is less than the previous LS election for that state.
State issues obviously matter more in state elections and BJP has not been able to provide the governance where enough voters can say they
are best placed to run the state.
In Himachal, BJP got 69% of the vote in LS 2019 and 43% in 2022. Why was there a drop of an unprecedented 26% (and 5% below State elections of
2017) ? This is a state where religion and caste are not major factors. All govt had to do was implement reasonably well its central schemes, which
is easier in a small state and should have resulted in maintaining the same vote share as 2017 (enough to win in '22).
In Gujarat, virtually the entire cabinet was replaced before the state election. They were presumably replaced because they did not perform.
The question is why weren't able to perform in a state where BJP controls the bureaucracy, media etc. Cong lost 12% of vote share to AAP.
If AAP was not contesting, it may have been much closer. BJP was also 10% lower in vote shared compared to LS 2019.
What the data tells us:
- 20% of those who will vote for Modiji at the national level will not vote for BJP at the state level, because they have better alternatives.
- There is NO state where BJP is confident of crossing 50% vote share in a state election. Each state is increasingly becoming a 2 party fight
and in a 2 party fight, BJP does not have enough vote share to be confident of winning ANY major state.
Some factors to consider:
- BJP gives as many tickets to dynasts as Cong.
- BJP gives as many tickets to those with criminal records, or defectors, as the other major parties. (I track this)
- In Karnataka, while a lot of sitting MLA's were dropped, none have been seriously investigated for corruption, in cases well publicized by the
media. Demo gave us data of about 1.6 lac people who accounted for a third of ALL the cash deposited. Most did not have corresponding tax
returns, Were ANY prosecuted ? (website of action takne under demo was not updated after 2017).
- Where Govts alternate, (Raj or HP) I have not seen any data to prove economic growth in the state is better under BJP.
So, on the planks of anti-dynasty, fighting corruption and clean politics, BJP is not different. Its also difficult to prove voters are economically
better off.
In the upcoming elections in Raj and Chattisgarh, Cong has infighting. Who are the state BJP leaders who are being projected as the alternative to
Cong ? In MP, if BJP gets the same vote share as 2018 (unlikely when the CM faces 4th term anti-incumbency) they will lose. After 20 years of
Hindutva in MP and a reasonably well regarded CM, the majority of Hindus do not vote BJP.
To put it simplistically, in States with a Cong vs BJP fight:
85% of voters are Hindu (after considering higher % of Muslims voting)
35 of the 85 (40% of Hindus) will always vote BJP.
20 of the 85 will always vote Cong.
Not more than 15 of the undecided 30 vote BJP in state elections. In Karnataka it was close to 0.
I think this is a cause for serious introspection.
Great crunching of the numbers Dean Saar, If I may add to it, most of the states in India have generally alternated govts between congress and others (whether communists or the third front parties representing certain castes or sections/regions).
Most of the govts were formed based on anti-incumbency of the ones in power, and govts changed every 5 years once congress weakened significantly with state leaders moving on or setting up their own parties.
In recent past this changed with Gujarat where Modi brought governance as the key platform, whether getting water to Kutch region - organising tent festival to get people some venues of earning or general infra and business friendly policies, water front or namrada waters and he seem to be doing the same when in Center as well.
In most of the other states you don't need to do all this to retain power, if you have the support of a dominant group with the peacefuls or any other obc/sc/st groups you stay in power more so when its a three way contest.
The BJP forming govt for the first time in states like Haryana, Jharkhand on their own was done by generally uniting all the other groups castes against the dominant ones (as generally the dominant ones represented the ones in power).
the yadavs for SP in UP and RJD in Bihar, Jats for Congis in Haryana, and Modi himself had to face Keshubhai Patel from his own state and party and triumphed eventually.
After 5 years the groups that generally stayed away from opposition generally tend to go back or forgive them for their mistakes untill they are too grave to be forgiven/forgotten.
So BJP has to do something to retain at least a portion of them back and this is where they tend to be inadequate. Khattar is not a Jat and the Jats think that Haryana is their fiefdom, JatSikhs have the same in Punjab.
BJP seems to be trying to solve a problem by bringing in some semblance of social engineering but it has its own set of limitations (pasmanda will not vote for BJP, not yet atleast, same thing with other groups so BJP has to bring in leaders from other parties to get the vote share much to the chagrin of its supporters).
In a two way contest its not always santanis and peacefuls, its various caste groups who don't want to get along with each other whether its Obc vs the upper castes or gujjar rajputs tussle, so if one party supports one the second group automatically goes to the other side,
only when it becomes existential then people forget about castes and then vote as a sanatani or hindu, but most state elections are not seen like that. The BJP has also been facing BJP vs the rest since the Bihar elections of 2016 and has faced defeats when that strategy has been implemented. Delhi MP, rajasthan and now Karnataka all come to mind.
BJP will have to break the opposition ranks and numbers as in most of the two way contests the congress is eating more into the vote share of the third parties - happened with BSP in Rajasthan and MP during last elections). Also there are freebies at work with old pension scheme in Himachal and freebies also doing some damage in Karnataka on the rural side it looks like.