Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

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Arima
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Arima »

ramana wrote:
ramana wrote:*Looking at the balance of probabilities and facts, it's a good thing that BJP did not win in Karnataka.*

Facts:

BJP image is that of a single group, Lingayat party

BJP had an image of corruption, arrogance, etc.etc

This BJP government is a compromise with the 15 defectors, led by Jakhroli, who got ministries to bring about BSY government. These ministers were quite corrupt.
Then Bommai came to bring a transition from BSY. The corruption increased. Pandemic time it grew wirse.

As elections came, BSY, Jakhroli, and BL Santosh trio were in charge of the campaign and put candidates.

Now, only 66 BJP MLAs won. Some are in the most difficult areas. All those with corruption taint got defeated. 44/46 Lingayats got elected in Congress. BJP is not the Lingayat party anymore.
Corrupt members defeated.
The 66 MLAs are solid BJP.
It's like shedding old clothes or rising like Phoenix.
It's important to do this a year before 2024.

*As for Congress, their issues start now.*
It's like political DeMo for BJP. They have shed a lot of baggage.
another important point to note is how Congress still remain a political force with a weak central leadership.
for 2024 it is important for BJP to see Congress is unable to secure any major alliances.
starting from MH, TN, Bihar. this is crucial. third time victory in Parliament is no mean task.
Cyrano
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Cyrano »

Horrible video of some muslims celebrating BJP's election loss by cutting the throat of a cow and making the dying animal's blood flow on to BJP flags doing the rounds on SM. Already a BJP worker was murdered by Muslim mobs attacking his house, in front of his family and crying children.

When the congi govt gets control this will multiply 100x, we will start seeing a Kashmir type exodus.

Hope BJP realises that kattar hindutva in the Yogi mode is the only way forward. Because these demons have realised they are under threat. Give them the smallest opening and they will rush in to perform ghastly acts on animals and people alike. And with this loss, a huge breach has been opened.

Hope president's rule comes in ASAP to save Karnataka.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by suryag »

Very well said Ramana Garu, earlier it was the Reddy brothers, now the Jarkiholi gang. KBJP had to swallow that poison. Good news is that they won 65 despite the BSY story and corruption taints and almost kept their vote share intact. They gained quite a lot in the South(JDS area) and in the North they lost, BSY's sons to the fore can help the North. What they need now is to continue as a spirited oppossition. Next gen leaders should strategize and continuously toruble the Congis. If it is Preetam Gowda one month, next month it should be Pratap Simha, next month Tejasvi, after that BSV but the Congis should be on the mat and remain on the backfoot.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by venkat_kv »

Ambar wrote:
Vips wrote:Why traditional BJP supporters Lingayats voted for Congress.

In a major shift, after decades to support, traditional BJP vote bank Lingayats switched sides from BJP to Congress in Karnataka assembly elections. This tectonic shift was one of the major factors which led to a landslide victory of Congress party.


Among the many reasons why the community switched sides, the side stepping of Lingayat strongman Yediyurappa was the prime factor. Yediyurappa was forced to step down in July 2021 during his fourth term, following a string of corruption allegations against him. The 77-year-old was the tallest leader of the community, who helped BJP to gain power in the only India Southern state.

Politically-dominant Lingayat are the state's single-largest community and comprise nearly 17 per cent of the total 5. 3 crore electorate in the
state, while Vokkaligas, the other politically prominent community, account for about 12 per cent.

The installation of Basavaraj Bommai -- a supporter of Yediyurappa -- did not go well with the community. A group of 500 powerful Lingayat sadhus had protested at that time and had even warned that the damage will be "irreparable". Later, a Lingayat seer alleged that even mutts were paying a 30 per cent commission to the government.

To make the matter worse, refusal of ticket to other tall BJP Lingayat leaders like Jagdish Shettar, a former Chief Minister of the state and Savadi, a former Deputy Chief Minister, also hurt the party badly. It was enough to alienate the politically crucial community, which has given the state nine Chief Ministers.
And who were the brains behind Yediyurappa, Eshwarappa, Savadi, Jagdish Shettar etc ouster ? Prahlad Joshi, BL Santhosh and RSS. Only those who do not understand politics missed seeing the significance of forcing R Ashok to contest against DK Shivakumar on the later's turf or V Somanna, another tall lingayat leader to take on Siddaramiah . Anyone with 2 gray cells could see the outcome that R Ashok and V Somanna had no chance in hell of defeating DKS or Siddu, so why were they forced to contest from those seats ? Because someone making the decisions wanted every single powerful leader of BJP Karnataka either get electorally wiped out or were forced to leave the party because they did not get the ticket. The result is for all to see. If heads don't roll after this debacle, then i'm sorry, i have little hope of party's resurrection in the state which took Yeddiyurappa his entire life time to build from nothing. Also, people need to give it a rest thinking Tejaswi Surya is another Yogi Adityanath or Hemanta, the guy will struggle to hold his Bangalore South seat next time let alone amount to anything big. He is naïve, lacks political acumen, inexperienced but unfortunately has a habit to act and say things out of impulse.
Good to see you back after a haitus Ambar saar, You and to a lesser extant chetak saar have been saying that karnataka infighting might cost the BJP, but looks like there were many more reasons, (as they say in telugu - Karna's death in Mahabharata has a 1000 reasons).
But BL Santosh is seen as having the ear of BJP central leadership, even for Telangana state BJP he seem to be the chief strategist/in charge. His name came up when the TRS govt put a false case on him during the byelection of Munugode.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by venkat_kv »

Zynda wrote:So now many BJP supporters are abusing South Indians on Twitter just because BJP lost...most of them along lines of lack of Hindu unity (or fake Hindus) etc. Many voted for BJP this time not because we were happy & wanted to do it but were forced to...

Anyways, gives a glimpse of how INC prepped
Sunil Kanugolu, The Data-Driven Strategist Behind Congress's Karnataka Win
New Delhi: If the battle of narratives forms the bedrock of politics, the precision to which political parties go to select candidates, study polling behaviour, and craft a campaign is equally important for an electoral victory.
If the Congress, which won the assembly polls in Karnataka with a historic 136 seats on Saturday, had all this working for the party this time, it was because of the prominent role played by Sunil Kanugolu, a 41-year-old low-profile strategist and Congress member who crafted the campaign and did not let the party lose sight of it until the end.

Known to be a "man of ideas, with a handle on the big picture", Mr Kanugolu, originally a Telugu who has roots in Karnataka and now lives in Bengaluru, grew up in Chennai and hails from a business family. After having worked for the BJP, DMK, and AIADMK in the past, Mr Kanugolu joined the Congress last year after having long conversations with Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi, mainly because he wanted to take up a challenge and work with a party that was close to the values he believes in, said a close friend of his.



Apart from being part of Narendra Modi's campaign in 2014, Mr Kanugolu was part of many BJP campaigns, particularly in Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat in 2017. He was also associated with MK Stalin and oversaw its 'Namakku Naame' (We are for Ourselves) campaign during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, when the party won 38 of the total 39 seats. Later, Mr Kanugolu also worked with AIADMK against the DMK and led the party to win 75 seats in the 2021 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections.
It seems like INC really did its homework this time...not sure if BJP did or started too late. So why did BJP lose this person from their team?
I believe Pradeep Singh of Aapka Akhbar did mention him during the run up to gujarat elections where he mentioned that the chap had worked with Prashant Kishore early on and while Prashant Kishore was more limelight seeking and spoke in front of the press, This chap preferred to work in the background and is a silent worker. He seemed to have a fallout with PK over some issue and has not worked with him after that setting his own stuff.
Around the same time that PK was briefly advising the congress (think this was after the bengal elections) with his strategy and then leaving about 2-3 months later, this sunil guy refused to work with PK and both were working in different states with different tasks for the congress.
He seems to be another soldier of fortune who is trying to have his own IPAC which is crouched with words like Periyar, shared values with congress, etc etc.
Last edited by venkat_kv on 17 May 2023 05:39, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by venkat_kv »

Deans wrote:I've looked at the numbers in some detail. There are structural problems with the BJP which are evident in the last 3 state elections
(Guj, HP and Karnataka). It has little to do with Hindu vote consolidation.

In every single State election since 2014, the BJP's vote share is less than the previous LS election for that state.
State issues obviously matter more in state elections and BJP has not been able to provide the governance where enough voters can say they
are best placed to run the state.

In Himachal, BJP got 69% of the vote in LS 2019 and 43% in 2022. Why was there a drop of an unprecedented 26% (and 5% below State elections of
2017) ? This is a state where religion and caste are not major factors. All govt had to do was implement reasonably well its central schemes, which
is easier in a small state and should have resulted in maintaining the same vote share as 2017 (enough to win in '22).

In Gujarat, virtually the entire cabinet was replaced before the state election. They were presumably replaced because they did not perform.
The question is why weren't able to perform in a state where BJP controls the bureaucracy, media etc. Cong lost 12% of vote share to AAP.
If AAP was not contesting, it may have been much closer. BJP was also 10% lower in vote shared compared to LS 2019.

What the data tells us:

- 20% of those who will vote for Modiji at the national level will not vote for BJP at the state level, because they have better alternatives.
- There is NO state where BJP is confident of crossing 50% vote share in a state election. Each state is increasingly becoming a 2 party fight
and in a 2 party fight, BJP does not have enough vote share to be confident of winning ANY major state.

Some factors to consider:
- BJP gives as many tickets to dynasts as Cong.
- BJP gives as many tickets to those with criminal records, or defectors, as the other major parties. (I track this)
- In Karnataka, while a lot of sitting MLA's were dropped, none have been seriously investigated for corruption, in cases well publicized by the
media. Demo gave us data of about 1.6 lac people who accounted for a third of ALL the cash deposited. Most did not have corresponding tax
returns, Were ANY prosecuted ? (website of action takne under demo was not updated after 2017).
- Where Govts alternate, (Raj or HP) I have not seen any data to prove economic growth in the state is better under BJP.

So, on the planks of anti-dynasty, fighting corruption and clean politics, BJP is not different. Its also difficult to prove voters are economically
better off.

In the upcoming elections in Raj and Chattisgarh, Cong has infighting. Who are the state BJP leaders who are being projected as the alternative to
Cong ? In MP, if BJP gets the same vote share as 2018 (unlikely when the CM faces 4th term anti-incumbency) they will lose. After 20 years of
Hindutva in MP and a reasonably well regarded CM, the majority of Hindus do not vote BJP.

To put it simplistically, in States with a Cong vs BJP fight:
85% of voters are Hindu (after considering higher % of Muslims voting)
35 of the 85 (40% of Hindus) will always vote BJP.
20 of the 85 will always vote Cong.

Not more than 15 of the undecided 30 vote BJP in state elections. In Karnataka it was close to 0.

I think this is a cause for serious introspection.
Great crunching of the numbers Dean Saar, If I may add to it, most of the states in India have generally alternated govts between congress and others (whether communists or the third front parties representing certain castes or sections/regions).
Most of the govts were formed based on anti-incumbency of the ones in power, and govts changed every 5 years once congress weakened significantly with state leaders moving on or setting up their own parties.
In recent past this changed with Gujarat where Modi brought governance as the key platform, whether getting water to Kutch region - organising tent festival to get people some venues of earning or general infra and business friendly policies, water front or namrada waters and he seem to be doing the same when in Center as well.
In most of the other states you don't need to do all this to retain power, if you have the support of a dominant group with the peacefuls or any other obc/sc/st groups you stay in power more so when its a three way contest.

The BJP forming govt for the first time in states like Haryana, Jharkhand on their own was done by generally uniting all the other groups castes against the dominant ones (as generally the dominant ones represented the ones in power).
the yadavs for SP in UP and RJD in Bihar, Jats for Congis in Haryana, and Modi himself had to face Keshubhai Patel from his own state and party and triumphed eventually.
After 5 years the groups that generally stayed away from opposition generally tend to go back or forgive them for their mistakes untill they are too grave to be forgiven/forgotten.
So BJP has to do something to retain at least a portion of them back and this is where they tend to be inadequate. Khattar is not a Jat and the Jats think that Haryana is their fiefdom, JatSikhs have the same in Punjab.
BJP seems to be trying to solve a problem by bringing in some semblance of social engineering but it has its own set of limitations (pasmanda will not vote for BJP, not yet atleast, same thing with other groups so BJP has to bring in leaders from other parties to get the vote share much to the chagrin of its supporters).

In a two way contest its not always santanis and peacefuls, its various caste groups who don't want to get along with each other whether its Obc vs the upper castes or gujjar rajputs tussle, so if one party supports one the second group automatically goes to the other side, only when it becomes existential then people forget about castes and then vote as a sanatani or hindu, but most state elections are not seen like that. The BJP has also been facing BJP vs the rest since the Bihar elections of 2016 and has faced defeats when that strategy has been implemented. Delhi MP, rajasthan and now Karnataka all come to mind.

BJP will have to break the opposition ranks and numbers as in most of the two way contests the congress is eating more into the vote share of the third parties - happened with BSP in Rajasthan and MP during last elections). Also there are freebies at work with old pension scheme in Himachal and freebies also doing some damage in Karnataka on the rural side it looks like.
Last edited by venkat_kv on 17 May 2023 05:58, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by venkat_kv »

dsreedhar wrote:BJP vote share remained the same despite losing a big chunk in Lingayat and Vokkaliga communities. BJP gained (new voters) as much as it lost to even out. BJP should work on fixing the loss and bring them aboard again. A 4-5% gain in vote share can make all the difference.
Need to see how the newly infused candidates did, to really evaluate the decision. How many won or did pretty darn good? The decision was due to bring in new blood and the energy. Maybe payoff in the coming years long run.
Also how reliable is the % of Lingayat and Vokkaliga communities? The last census was 2011. Need a new more accurate census soon.
madhu wrote:
Ambar wrote:
There's no data which can tell what % of JDS votes shifted to INC Vs BJP, but a cursory look at several high profile seats should tell you that JDS votes moved to INC and not BJP, and in turn INC stayed out of few seats to help JDS.
Amberji the logic of vote transfer is based on drop in vote share.
In the 2018 elections, the Congress garnered a vote share of 38.04 per cent, followed by the BJP (36.22 per cent) and the JD(S) with 18.36 per cent.
Today in 2023 Congress' vote share zoomed to 42.88 per cent; that of JD(S) dropped to 13.29 per cent. BJP's vote share was 36 per cent.
The drop of 5% vote share tallies with increase of 5% vote share of Congress.

Traditionally, the Janata Dal (S) party has enjoyed strong support from Muslim voters in the Old Mysuru region, which has an 11% Muslim population. However, this time, the Muslim vote bank consolidated in favour of the Congress party.

The Muslim vote mattered in around 65 of the 224 constituencies in the state, and an analysis of the election data showed that the Congress party was able to win almost half of the 65 assembly seats where Muslims matter. Of the 15 Muslim candidates fielded by the Congress, nine won, while none of the 22 fielded by the JDS were successful. In 2018, five of the seven Muslim candidates who won were from the Congress, while two were from the JDS.
As Ambar Saar also said, there is no exact way of knowing the vote transfer, sure there was a 5 % drop for JDS and 5% increase for congress, but it also is true that Vokliggas and Lingayats have voted for the congress either due to inept state governance (corruption) or that fact that BS yedurappa was removed from CM seat and it didn't even do anything when PM Modi tried a lot to convince BSY, praised him multiple times and Amit Shah meeting and giving responsibilities to his sons for electioneering.
There was also anger on BJP for not doing enough after Praveen Nettaru's murder and apparently younger folk resigned from the party and Tejaswi Surya didn't do anything and was kept away from campaigning this time around (atleast that was the reason thrown around).

So there is some vote drop from BJP's traditional voters and some of it made up with other votes. So hopefully if BJP strengtens the state party cadre and leadership the next election should get back their vote base and hopefully they retain the newer voters and JDS and congress no longer have any secret deals or friendly fights, you are looking at a BJP majority. (atleast on paper)
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by venkat_kv »

Admins and more learned folks on the forum, while the postmortem of the Karnataka elections for BJP has been laid bare, i don't think there has been any discussion on the freebies by Congress and the hole it will burn in the state budget and the votes it probably garnered due to the that.
An increasingly desperate congress central leadership will announce something similar all over India to come back to power.

Kejri, did the same in delhi and is burning a hole in the state coffers to keep him in power.
The BJP needs to have spokesperson atleast at a state level to atleast explain a few things like gas prices being dependent on external prices and free money in the name of unemployed youth will burn hole in the budget, depending on Modi and Shah and Central leadership is going to give results like these only.

More than election perspectives a few solutions need to be provided so that freebie culture is shunned by Indian populace at large.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by disha »

Hriday wrote:
disha wrote:
JDS is flaming out and so will CONgoons. They are being reduced to local satrapies.
disha ji, can you explain your above statement. It is difficult for a common man outside Karnataka to understand this.
In UP, the collapse of the BSP advantaged BJP.

Here the JDS collapse has advantaged CONgoons. However CONgoons are caught in the monkey trap. Along with all the corrupt hangar ons from the BJP joining CONgoons. This will just increase the fissiparous tendencies within CONgoons. Also the local satraps will be more interested in filling their coffers first. And do you think they will work hard for RaGa in national elections? To make him a king so that when 2028 comes (assuming the CONgoon sarkar lasts till then), the prince will get to decide on the most viable court jester casting aside the king maker?
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by disha »

venkat_kv wrote:Admins and more learned folks on the forum, while the postmortem of the Karnataka elections for BJP has been laid bare, i don't think there has been any discussion on the freebies by Congress and the hole it will burn in the state budget and the votes it probably garnered due to the that.
Several voters want "Free, Free, Free" everything. Even here on this advanced forum, several posters complain about how life is bad with them paying taxes etc. So there is nothing to discuss. Several voters of the state want a free joy ride and they are going to get it. It is always at someone' else cost. Even if they happen to be the someone else down the road.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Aditya_V »

Well, if INC, DMK TMC deliver all promises they would have never lost elections in 70 years, like INC 2000 Rs promise, allies DMK promised 1RS in TN 2021 this has been quietly buried.

Regarding corruption charges some of it might be true but I am sure a lot of it also built by rumors of by the INC ecosystem.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by chetak »

Aditya_V wrote:Well, if INC, DMK TMC deliver all promises they would have never lost elections in 70 years, like INC 2000 Rs promise, allies DMK promised 1RS in TN 2021 this has been quietly buried.

Regarding corruption charges some of it might be true but I am sure a lot of it also built by rumors of by the INC ecosystem.
The idea of "godi" media is laughable, especially when the media is still so very firmly ensconced in the congi/commie/abrahamic laps

The Sanātana Dharmic supporters have never had a godi media of their own

They shot down arnab when they could have easily supported him on the quiet, and built up a ecosystem to tackle and blunt counter narratives
Last edited by chetak on 17 May 2023 11:16, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by disha »

One more news item for Hriday and others:

https://theprint.in/politics/cm-or-noth ... t/1578250/
Bengaluru: Karnataka state Congress president D.K. Shivakumar, continues to play hardball with the party high command as he remains steadfast in his demand to be made chief minister or remain out of the cabinet and government, two persons directly aware of the developments confirmed to ThePrint.
Raul Baba does not have enough oomph in him to even entertain the likes of D.K.S. The princeling will be left churning 'gold' from the potatoes served during dinner...

Here are the silver lining lot of posters are missing, and again my 2-cent of perspectives:

1. Lingayats have aligned with CONgoons this time. https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/ka ... 93842.html
Yediyurappa was forced to step down following a series of corruption allegations and was replaced by Basavaraj Bommai – another Lingayat leader.
I feel sorry for the lingayats as a community since they ended up strengthening the hand of a vokalliga (DKS) and pitting him against a Kuruba (Siddaramaiah). And in the process did not get anything for BSY or his son.

2. BSY was already 77 and should have put himself into margdarshak mandal. He has done a lot. There is a point when one needs to know how to retire gracefully. https://indianexpress.com/article/polit ... p-8609538/, but he was set in his old ways. And so were his followers.

BSY exiting and painting himself and his cohorts in a corner is a blessing in disguise for BJP. They can start looking out of lingayat-vokalliga prism.

3. BJP has proven that in post-covid anti-incumbency with a high index of opposition unity (JDS+CONgoons), it has a solid core base. That core cuts across caste lines and can be considered as an equivalent of cutting out the KHAM politics of CONgoons in Gujarat.

Now if BJP plays it right in K'taka, that is, its MLAs perform, are visible and are not-corrupt then they can possibly win the state back in two years.

4. Impact on national elections

Indian voter is smart to recognize whom to elect for state and whom for national. Pappu is no alternative to Modi. However with this win in K'taka, Pappu will fancy himself as the next PM candidate. Already maomata has said that Pappu will be the joint PM candidate for the opposition supported by TMC, *provided* CONgoons transfer all their votes in W.B to Maomata's TMC. I think Akhilesh also indicated the same. Pawar faction in Mah (Supriya) will do the same and the same can be expected by Jagan (anyway an ex congoon) and TRS. This is as feudal as it gets and think of several sayyid brothers and sistahs after the death of aurangazeb. Except, there is no aurangazeb.

And this is assuming all other parties follow the MaoMata proposal. That is the first hurdle. Pappu than has to over come his image of being Pappu. That is the second hurdle. And third, he has to grow beyond Modi's stature. And finally if he crosses all this hurdles, he has to convince his own CONgoon party to roll up almost everywhere.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by disha »

chetak wrote:They shot down arnab when they could have easily supported him on the quiet, and built up a ecosystem to tackle and blunt counter narratives
I used to think like that. However lately I think media needs to follow its own sva-dharma and be independent and not rely on any political party for support. If they do not do that, the mediascape is changing so much and so fast that the vlogs of ordinary folks is upsetting their apple cart.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by chetak »

disha wrote:
chetak wrote:They shot down arnab when they could have easily supported him on the quiet, and built up a ecosystem to tackle and blunt counter narratives
I used to think like that. However lately I think media needs to follow its own sva-dharma and be independent and not rely on any political party for support. If they do not do that, the mediascape is changing so much and so fast that the vlogs of ordinary folks is upsetting their apple cart.
Janab,

Fight fire with fire. There is no other way

how come the bbc, nyp, guardian, wapo etc wield so much global influence and we are still talking about fair play

do we not know and/or realize who our enemies are......

or are we going to sit back and docilely let another partition happen
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Deans »

Rsatchi wrote:Deansji and Vijayji
We have a saying in Kannada : Bisi Thuppa Nungalooagadu Ugiyaluagadu (translated Hot Ghee diffcult to swallow yet you wont spit it out)
BL Santosh v BSY is similar. No doubt BSY built up the party but bulk of his supporters had become Congified and eating from Gobermint Plate was on Monumental scale.
Now how can NaMo or As with their clean image ticket admit there is rot in the party. Ergo BL Santosh and the proverbial cleaning of stables going on. Yes in the short run it can be disastrous but the party must have kept in mind the long term goal. Speaking to some friends in B'lore corruption was monumental
RSatchi Sir, I understand the need to replace Yeddi, not only because of age but the corruption allegations around him. The problem is the way BJP went about grabbing power in 2021 with operation Kamal and then sidelining him. With the benefit of hindsight, BJP should have sat in Opposition and let the Cong govt face allegations of corruption and a bad post covid economy - `PayCM' would have happened with a Cong govt also. By grabbing power through defections, After which they dumped the mastermind of the operation, BJP showed Karnataka voters that they were as unprincipled as Cong/ JDS and performed as poorly in their brief time in Govt. Ideally Yeddi could have led the BJP campaign and handed over to a successor who could have been groomed from 2018 to 23.
I said in a previous post that a 1% drop from their 2018 vote share would be enough to give Cong victory and that 1% usually happens with anti-incumbency. In this case, coupled with defections of Yeddi supporters to Cong + poor performance of defectors to BJP.
Last edited by Deans on 17 May 2023 19:13, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by chetak »

for the people cribbing needlessly, and also endlessly, about yeddy, .......

this is the harsh reality that one is faced with

what would be your choice.......

No one can deny that atul mishra has spoken the unvarnished truth




Quote:
DK is nasty, corrupt, greedy, and a megalomaniac.

Sidda is all of it and SDPI PFI supported rabid Hindu hater.

DK will be better.

But it’s Sidda who has the support.

— Atul Mishra (@TheAtulMishra) May 15, 2023


why are the Sanatanis so thick headedly insistent on following sanctimonious and pious narratives that no one else is following.

The BJP wasn't responsible in the least, for yeddi's mass base support. He, yeddi, had himself painstakingly built it up over the years and decades, and it was his legacy to pass on to whomsoever he wished

Always make the exception when the exception works well for the organization





@ARanganathan72·14h

I'm afraid the numbers are stacked against Mr DK Shivakumar.

Just by the sheer strength of the numbers, Mr Siddaramaiah should be the next Karnataka CM.

He has 50 corruption cases against him while Mr Shivakumar has only 19.
apologies for the multiple edits. My bad
Last edited by chetak on 17 May 2023 13:29, edited 3 times in total.
disha
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by disha »

chetak wrote: Janab,

Fight fire with fire. There is no other way

how come the bbc, nyp, guardian, wapo etc wield so much global influence and we are still talking about fair play
Yes, fight fire with fire, but not for media pimps. Let the media pimps isolate themselves. The problem with cultivating pimps is that they will gravitate to the highest bidder. And the most dishonest bidder.

BTW, did you watch the vlogs of ANI Smita Prakash? If not please watch it. On youtube you also have AKTK (aaj ki taaja khabar) and also the SSS (Shyam Sharma Show). They are generally good ones.

Now the trust in media is so low that if you quote BBC, WaPo, Guardian, NYTimes etc, you are considered dumb. I do get my news and since last 3 years, I have not got any news from BBC/WaPo/Guardian/NYTimes. They are no longer standard bearers of news and views. The ground has shifted under them already. Please check out the viewer ship of CNN.

So the answer is not to cultivate any media. Answer is to cultivate a new generation of vlog'ers and content creators who know how to engage with their audience and is fiercely nationalistic. And discredit anti-nationalist vloggers like Dhruv Tatti. Though I have to admit, he has a way of putting his wrong view with large audiences.
disha
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by disha »

chetak wrote: The BJP wasn't responsible in the least, for yeddi's mass base support. He, yeddi, had himself painstakingly built it up over the years and decades, and it was his legacy to pass on to whomsoever he wished
Think again. Yeddi is 79+ years old now. The next person, who happens to be his son, does not have the wherewithal to hold on to the mantle passed on by father dear. And Yeddi is too self-centered to pass it on to say Bommai.

Bommai is the man to watch. He is now free to build up the base.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by chetak »

disha wrote:
chetak wrote: The BJP wasn't responsible in the least, for yeddi's mass base support. He, yeddi, had himself painstakingly built it up over the years and decades, and it was his legacy to pass on to whomsoever he wished
Think again. Yeddi is 79+ years old now. The next person, who happens to be his son, does not have the wherewithal to hold on to the mantle passed on by father dear. And Yeddi is too self-centered to pass it on to say Bommai.

Bommai is the man to watch. He is now free to build up the base.
saar,

yeddi will ensure that his son(s) inherit his legacy, bomai, or no bomai, modi, or no modi......

He may be 79 but he still has a lot of fight left in him

better to have him inside the tent pissing out, rather than outside the tent, pissing in...
Last edited by chetak on 17 May 2023 12:34, edited 1 time in total.
Deans
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Deans »

Only 42% of Hindus voted for BJP in Karnataka. Unless that figure crosses 55% BJP wont win - in any 2 party contest
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by chetak »

Deans wrote:Only 42% of Hindus voted for BJP in Karnataka. Unless that figure crosses 55% BJP wont win - in any 2 party contest
Deans ji,

that is the effect of the khujliwal dilli model

The shift is mostly because of the freebies

there is no ideology involved, only greed, and the need to somehow get their snouts into the public trough

Already, there are reports of many people who are refusing to pay their electricity bills, quoting the poll promises made by the congis

These schemes will come with a lot of caveats that will disappoint many such foolish voters
Karnataka will have to dole out at least ₹62,000 crores a year, according to Economic Times. Notably, the cost of the freebies is close to the fiscal deficit in the previous financial year.
So these congi guys will have to prune the list of eligibles like crazy and in the process they will piss off a lot of their greedy supporters.

The freebies will be heavily tilted towards the abrahamics because that is the congi's favored and targeted vote bank and their loyal supporters for the future too, thus further adding to the discontent and dismay of the "others"
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Cyrano »

BJP claims to be a party or at least adorns itself with the tag of a party with ideology and not dynastic. What is this ideology ? At a national level it is national interest and good governance that is development oriented and corruption free. At a state level, their narrative is double engine sarkar but its clear that they have failed in KA to implement this ideology and dare I say "values". Its the same case in various other states in which it has been in power for a while. Out of the 16 states it is in power, except for UP and perhaps Assam, we neither see dedication to the way it functions at the center nor is there much innovation.

BJP needs to resolve this dichotomy of functioning and performance between center and states to benefit from the enormous goodwill earned by Modi and his ministers. If the voter gets a "no different from corrupt factionalised congress" image at state level, it will definitely negatively impact his propensity to vote for the same party with the belief that it will somehow miraculously functions entirely differently at the center.

The separation of powers at state and center levels means that at the state level the govt needs to be a lot more "on the ground" on a daily basis and resolve innumerable small and big issues round the clock, where as at the center level its more about policy making, financial management, internal security, diplomacy and defense.

I think after nearly a decade in power, BJP has begun to understand and employ the organs of the state at the center. This learning however seems to not help much at the state level where the mandate and issues to tackle are different. From the partly leadership, innovative capability building within the party is missing. Why cant BJP set up a "good governance university" in which it trains its cadre on public interaction, accessibility, problem identification and collection, redressal, reporting back, transparency etc. Even if they are in opposition, these skills will help keep the non-BJP govt in power on its toes and give credibility as a party with a difference. When next election time comes, this will help maximise the benefit from anti-incumbency factor and win.

BJP is the most well funded party by far. Instead of spending all of that exclusively on posters banners and electioneering, I'd like to see them spend it on becoming the party with the most well informed and trained cadre in laws, policies, state machinery, governance tools and techniques, feedback collection and analysis etc etc. Run the party like a modern entreprise in certain critical dimensions, and not simply drag along as a vestige of the past seven decades of collective rot poured into a hindutva bottle only smeared on the outside with saffron paste? Is it unrealistic to expect such innovation from this party?
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by sanjayc »

DK is nasty, corrupt, greedy, and a megalomaniac.

Sidda is all of it and SDPI PFI supported rabid Hindu hater.

DK will be better.

But it’s Sidda who has the support.


— Atul Mishra (@TheAtulMishra) May 15, 2023
Mallikarjun Kharge is even worse anti-Hindu dude. I saw a video where he was worried about Hinduism making a bounce-back in Karnataka "I don't want to do anything that will make Sanatana grow," he said.

Due to their greed, political blindness, obsession with caste and inability to identify with larger Hindu cause, Karnataka Hindus have again appointed anti-Hindus to rule over them in collaboration with Muslims. As someone said, Hindus conspire to get themselves persecuted. (This is the usual behavior of Hindus, ever since they chose Gandhi over Savarkar). Once the riots start, that is only when Hindus remember RSS
Last edited by sanjayc on 17 May 2023 13:22, edited 1 time in total.
chetak
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by chetak »

disha wrote:
chetak wrote: Janab,

Fight fire with fire. There is no other way

how come the bbc, nyp, guardian, wapo etc wield so much global influence and we are still talking about fair play
Yes, fight fire with fire, but not for media pimps. Let the media pimps isolate themselves. The problem with cultivating pimps is that they will gravitate to the highest bidder. And the most dishonest bidder.

BTW, did you watch the vlogs of ANI Smita Prakash? If not please watch it. On youtube you also have AKTK (aaj ki taaja khabar) and also the SSS (Shyam Sharma Show). They are generally good ones.

Now the trust in media is so low that if you quote BBC, WaPo, Guardian, NYTimes etc, you are considered dumb. I do get my news and since last 3 years, I have not got any news from BBC/WaPo/Guardian/NYTimes. They are no longer standard bearers of news and views. The ground has shifted under them already. Please check out the viewer ship of CNN.

So the answer is not to cultivate any media. Answer is to cultivate a new generation of vlog'ers and content creators who know how to engage with their audience and is fiercely nationalistic. And discredit anti-nationalist vloggers like Dhruv Tatti. Though I have to admit, he has a way of putting his wrong view with large audiences.
Janab,

I did not say cultivate

I said organically grow your own media ecosystems to counter the tirade of disinformation

We are far too big a country to allow offshore BIF entities to dominate the Indian media space as they now do. It has serious NATSEC implications going forward

no other country allows it
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by chetak »

Ashwini Vaishnaw@AshwiniVaishnaw

Check mobile connections issued using your KYC details.

Visit: http://sancharsaathi.gov.in

Report unknown connections, if any to block.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Sachin »

Siddaramaiah likely to be named Karnataka CM; three Dy CMs from Lingayat, Dalit, Muslim communities likely
  • Shivakumar will not join the Cabinet as Deputy Chief Minister, sources said.
  • Congress leader Randeep Surjewala said that the consultations were on and the party would announce the decision come in 48-72 hours.
  • Sonia Gandhi had spoken to Shivakumar and had urged him to take up the post of Deputy Chief Minister. However, Shivakumar politely declined the offer following which she asked him to continue as the Karnataka Congress President.
Note; in this formula Vokkaligga caste from which DKS also comes from, have been politely asked to take a hike. No representation for them. :lol:
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Deans »

Cyrano wrote:BJP claims to be a party or at least adorns itself with the tag of a party with ideology and not dynastic. What is this ideology ? At a national level it is national interest and good governance that is development oriented and corruption free. At a state level, their narrative is double engine sarkar but its clear that they have failed in KA to implement this ideology and dare I say "values". Its the same case in various other states in which it has been in power for a while. Out of the 16 states it is in power, except for UP and perhaps Assam, we neither see dedication to the way it functions at the center nor is there much innovation.
Great post Cyrano ji. In UP and Assam, BJP has CMs who can win without Modi ji campaigning.
No other BJP CM in my opinion, has a mass base or charisma. However, some are strong enough to cause damage if they are replaced
against their will - e.g. Rajasthan and MP.

Naveen Patnaik has been winning elections for 15 years without freebies. It is the state with the biggest reduction in poverty. There should be
some lessons to be learnt from Odisha.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by chetak »

@ANI
#WATCH | Mumbai |

At a press conference with the cast & crew of #TheKeralaStory and some of the real-life victims, the film's director Sudipto Sen says, "...Two Keralas exist inside Kerala - one which is like a picture, postcard, backwaters, beautiful landscape, Kalaripayattu, dance, martial arts.

The other Kerala - the northern part of Kerala - Malappuram, Kasaragod, Kozhikode which connects to south Karnataka including Mangaluru, is a terror-network hub..."
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Cyrano »

Navven Patnaik is an unsung hero of India. How he stepped up to support Indian hockey is a classic example of his style. A true karma & raja yogi.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by SRajesh »

Cyranoji
Exactly
He was put in the hot seat when father passed away
Never in politics or admin
Yet turned to a super successful administrator
I had suggested similar job upping for R Rathore
He might change the outlook in Rajasthan
Similarly feel Scindia should be groomed with Mamaji as DCM and take over after 2 years (if BJP gets it act together and wins MP)
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Larry Walker »

Sachin wrote:Siddaramaiah likely to be named Karnataka CM; three Dy CMs from Lingayat, Dalit, Muslim communities likely
  • Shivakumar will not join the Cabinet as Deputy Chief Minister, sources said.
  • Congress leader Randeep Surjewala said that the consultations were on and the party would announce the decision come in 48-72 hours.
  • Sonia Gandhi had spoken to Shivakumar and had urged him to take up the post of Deputy Chief Minister. However, Shivakumar politely declined the offer following which she asked him to continue as the Karnataka Congress President.
Note; in this formula Vokkaligga caste from which DKS also comes from, have been politely asked to take a hike. No representation for them. :lol:
So the most influential community from being represented by CM will now not be represented even by DyCM ? And no representation for 2nd most influential community in CM circle too ? sounds like ground is ripe for a DKS revolt and Bommai becoming CM and DKS as DyCM.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by la.khan »

Cyrano wrote:...
I think after nearly a decade in power, BJP has begun to understand and employ the organs of the state at the center. This learning however seems to not help much at the state level where the mandate and issues to tackle are different. From the partly leadership, innovative capability building within the party is missing. Why cant BJP set up a "good governance university" in which it trains its cadre on public interaction, accessibility, problem identification and collection, redressal, reporting back, transparency etc. Even if they are in opposition, these skills will help keep the non-BJP govt in power on its toes and give credibility as a party with a difference. When next election time comes, this will help maximise the benefit from anti-incumbency factor and win.
I believe the highlighted part is already taken care of. BJP/RSS does have centre for learning. I have read about it in Nalin Mehta's book The New BJP.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by chetak »

pappu after the congi win in KAR


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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by vimal »

^ They know they are the kingmakers and want their pound of flesh.

What’s preventing Hindu groups from asking for all portfolios for Hindus?
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by vijayk »

https://twitter.com/SanggitaT/status/16 ... 1587994624
DK has refused to accept the power sharing formulae of Congress highcommand. He is meeting his supporters in Bangluru. The preparations of tommorow's swearing in ceremony have been stopped by congress party. Priyanka Gandhi will soon meet DK Shivkumar to convince hi


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chetak
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by chetak »

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 325668.cms

straight out of the BIF playbook and pappu's mohabbat ki dukan

and who would have thunk that these mamamia mafia snakes would lie through their teeth so openly.

the ballot box is just the place to cut off their poisonous heads

Five reasons why Congress high command picked Siddaramaiah as Karnataka CM

Ideological enmity with the BJP

Siddaramaiah, who comes from the left background, is seen as a strong ideological opponent of the RSS and the BJP. While Shivakumar has no affinity with any right-wing group, he is seen as a devout Hindu who often visits religious places and makes no effort to hide his religious inclination. This may not have posed much problem if the political climate were not as religiously polarised as it is in Karnataka today. Many believe the Muslim vote shifted to the Congress from the JD(S) in a sign of the community strongly backing the Congress in the state. With the Lok Sabha elections next year, the polarisation is likely to get more pronounced. In such circumstances, the party high command had to back the candidate whose ideological leanings strongly aligned with the party agenda of resisting the BJP-RSS and cornering the Muslim vote...
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by ritesh »

chetak wrote:
Ashwini Vaishnaw@AshwiniVaishnaw

Check mobile connections issued using your KYC details.

Visit: http://sancharsaathi.gov.in

Report unknown connections, if any to block.
Awesome.
Is there any link to check the aadhar pan linking as well?
chetak
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by chetak »

ritesh wrote:
chetak wrote:
Awesome.
Is there any link to check the aadhar pan linking as well?
janab,

It's easy enough to find and a breeze to check
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by ricky_v »

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/10 ... r-AA1boeM4
Former Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister and senior Congress leader Kamal Nath announced to give free electricity to the people of the state. He said that people won't need to pay bills for electricity consumption of up to 100 units.

"I am saying this for the first time. Waiver up to 100 units, half bill up to 200 units," said Kamal Nath. The Madhya Pradesh Congress claimed that the BJP will be wiped out in the state assembly polls. "Kamalnath Ka Sandesh Saaf, 100 Unit Bijali Maaf, 200 Unit Par Bill Half, Ab BJP Ka Supada Saaf (Kamal Nath's message is clear, waiver up to 100 units of electricity, half bill for up to 200 units and BJP will be swept out of power)," tweeted Madhya Pradesh Congress.
On the lines of Karnataka, Kamal Nath also promised Rs 1,500 per month for women in the state without any pre-conditions. It may be recalled that Congress has promised Rs 2,000 per month for the woman head of the family in Karnataka. Kamal Nath also played the cheaper LPG cylinder card promising to cap the cooking gas cylinder priced at Rs 500 with the state government offering Rs 600 subsidy as per the current domestic LPG cylinder prices.
The Congress has also promised to restore the old pension scheme that helped the party win the assembly polls in Himachal Pradesh. Nath also promised a farm loan waiver.
all solid points of governance put forth by the ex-cm, something that will propel the industrialisation and gdp growth of one of the co-founders of AMIRU states to the next level.

speaking of, the study of debt and indian gdsp, now i posted something about this in the state discussion forum, but that got no love, there has been fuk all discussion about the financial condition of the federalised states either here or out there in the broader smverse

https://www.financialexpress.com/econom ... 0/2413768/
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The aggregate debt of states reached a 15-year high of 31.3% of GDP in FY21 and is seen to be at roughly the same level in FY22. According to the respective budget estimates, states with the highest debt-GSDP ratio in FY22 are Punjab (53.3%), Rajasthan (39.8%), West Bengal (38.8%), Kerala (38.3%) and Andhra Pradesh (37.6%). All these states receive revenue deficit grants from the Centre.
Rajasthan’s indebtedness also deteriorated significantly in FY21 with the total liabilities of the state rising 7.2 percentage points in a year to 42.6%. The state had almost halved its debt-GDP ratio to 24% in FY15 from about 47% in FY05. One reason for the steady rise in the ratio thereafter was implementation of the UDAY scheme for power distribution entities under which the bulk of discoms’ debt got shifted to the state’s budget.
https://prsindia.org/files/policy/polic ... 021-22.pdf
now, debt to an extent is fine if done for capex, most of the states have raised debts to finance interests and pensions / revenue expenditure which is a poor choice to make for a longer run, as stated clearly in the above .pdf

some relevant images
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