Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 11 Mar 2022 02:05

News Arena @NewsArenaIndia
EVM = Everyone Voted Modi.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 11 Mar 2022 02:12

News Arena @NewsArenaIndia

BJP wins all 5 seats in Sultanpur.
BJP wins all 4 seats in Pilibhit.
Bad day for Pappu Lite.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 11 Mar 2022 02:17

Risinghindu @rising_hindu

Phase-wise performance of BJP+ in 2022 Uttar Pradesh elections

Phase 1 46/58
Phase 2 28/55
Phase 3 42/59
Phase 4 49/59
Phase 5 39/61
Phase 6 40/57
Phase 7 26/54

Why so bad in Phase 2, 5 and 7?

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 11 Mar 2022 02:31

vimal wrote:Manipur has dealt the biggest surprise in my view. It might be a small state but the results their will echo through entire NE. Hats off the workers their.

A simple, yet profound reason.
Just a few weeks ago, with much fanfare, Manipur did welcome the first rail-link with the rest of the country. This has touched a deep nerve of the people of Manipur, and they kept asking why it took almost 75 years after independence to get this basic service, and who to blame for this? Due this rail-link, not only the transportation will be much easier, but this will bring the price of usual commodities down. Under NaMo, Bharat has given a special attention to its NE region, and the region feels indebted to NDA.

Also, in neighboring Assam, BJP retailed the Majuli seat with a landslide margin in the by-election.

bala · Post by **bala** » 11 Mar 2022 02:35

Aah, the kshatrapas TMC (WB), AAP (NCR & Punjab), TRS (TG), YSRCP (AP), DMK (TN), CPIM (KL) are ideal for external entities to use their shoulders and fire away at India and eat away at the power in the Center. You speak to the average Gopal (all well educated and upper middle class) and they blame Mudi/BJP for all their woes. So much fake news is embedded in their brains, all carefully crafted by forces outside. Most Indians have the Stockholm syndrome, empathize with the victimizer, Indians bad, videshi good nonsense.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 11 Mar 2022 02:49

About UP:

Keep the two top parties - BJP and SP - aside.
The combined vote-share of BSP+INC+Others has come down by 18%. Of this 4% has gone to BJP, and the remaining 14% has gone to SP. This is an oversimplified math, but this gives an overall picture.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Mar 2022 02:57

Kati quite true.
Also the BJP seats were won after a hard fight.
The BJP vote share is 10> than SP yet over 50 seats were not won compared to 2017.

I think need to improve total voteshare to >50% for 2024.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Mar 2022 03:01

vijayk wrote:
Shekhar Gupta
@ShekharGupta

First takeaways from trends. The first is, AAP has risen as the “change” party of India. It is a fundamental new shift in national politics. Watch for their vote share in Gujarat later this year. A new planet has risen.

Planets don't rise moron.
Only sun rises.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 11 Mar 2022 03:20

Punjab needs a person like K. Annamalai (in TN). A retired senior cop with good administrative experience. He cleared civil services (IPS) when he was in his mid-20s. Undergrad in Engineering and did MBA at IIM. Experience living in other parts of India. And still grounded to people (his cop life helped him). He is only in his mid-30s. Can talk in Tamil, English, Kannada. And probably Hindi (I speculate). He is cultured and acts in line with party principles, does not shoot off his mouth, controls his behavior (and others). His caste is not an issue for people. He has the clean cultured mature cop/politician image. He has a good memory, has the data on his fingertips, and constructs arguments well. Not of the cuff rhetoric, that lands other politicians in trouble.

And very practical, he has set a period of 2-3 years hard work for him and his party workers. Prior to the TN elections, I happen to be in a zoom meeting and watched how he interacts even in close group settings. BJP is being built ground up as we speak.

Punjab sending so many people to armed forces is bound to have cultured and disciplined professionals who have seen professional/business life and yet are grounded. And is not afraid to stand their ground and face the tough task of building BJP.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 11 Mar 2022 03:53

vijayk wrote:
Risinghindu @rising_hindu

Phase-wise performance of BJP+ in 2022 Uttar Pradesh elections

Phase 1 46/58
Phase 2 28/55
Phase 3 42/59
Phase 4 49/59
Phase 5 39/61
Phase 6 40/57
Phase 7 26/54
Why so bad in Phase 2, 5 and 7?

There are 3 seats less. Also, the data needs to be looked at a seat by seat basis to see how many candidates who lost are from BJP vs those from its allies.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 11 Mar 2022 04:16

Comment from a Goan:

Goan here. And even I'm surprised by BJP's victory. CM Pramod Sawant didn't manage the corona crisis well and so there was a discontent among the general public and also considering the fact that Goa BJP is uber corrupt. What Kushal pointed out is absolutely true. The votes of Christians and also Hindus who wanted a change got split among Congress, AAP and TMC. And this split occurred for almost every seat. Meaning BJP wouldn't have won as many seats as they have won now if there was a unified opposition!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Mar 2022 05:40

Rudradev wrote:All this triumphalism is misplaced (or at least, premature).

The INC may lose Punjab tomorrow (or, in fact, they may end up providing crucial outside support to a minority AAP government in Punjab). Regardless, INC is poised to pick up two new states that have been BJP-ruled thus far: Goa and Uttarakhand. Any way you look at it, with such a result, Congress would be better off than they were until now. BJP may retain UP, the big prize, and their partners may retain Manipur, but 2 out of 5 is hardly a resounding victory.

Congress adding a net +1 state to its tally would be a very unfortunate development as well. Rest assured the Sonia-Pappu-Pappini supporters will spin it as a brilliant victory under the leadership of La Famiglia.

Fortunately did not happen due to hardworking BJP karyakatas in Uttarakhand and Goa.

asbchakri · Post by **asbchakri** » 11 Mar 2022 05:43

SwamyG wrote:Punjab needs a person like K. Annamalai (in TN). A retired senior cop with good administrative experience. He cleared civil services (IPS) when he was in his mid-20s. Undergrad in Engineering and did MBA at IIM. Experience living in other parts of India. And still grounded to people (his cop life helped him). He is only in his mid-30s. Can talk in Tamil, English, Kannada. And probably Hindi (I speculate). He is cultured and acts in line with party principles, does not shoot off his mouth, controls his behavior (and others). His caste is not an issue for people. He has the clean cultured mature cop/politician image. He has a good memory, has the data on his fingertips, and constructs arguments well. Not of the cuff rhetoric, that lands other politicians in trouble.
-------------------------------

Do BJP have a similar leader in Bihar. It is the next important state after UP and do not think we can depend on Nitish in the near future. Also we need a young leader to take on Tejashwi yadav.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Mar 2022 05:48

vimal wrote:Comment from a Goan:

Goan here. And even I'm surprised by BJP's victory. CM Pramod Sawant didn't manage the corona crisis well and so there was a discontent among the general public and also considering the fact that Goa BJP is uber corrupt. What Kushal pointed out is absolutely true. The votes of Christians and also Hindus who wanted a change got split among Congress, AAP and TMC. And this split occurred for almost every seat. Meaning BJP wouldn't have won as many seats as they have won now if there was a unified opposition!

Erroneous. Goacwas first state to come up with Covid care kit containing ivermectin, oximeter, digital thermometer.
The comment is sour grapes.
On the contrary there was massive infighting in BJP before candidate selection and even afterwards.
However they sunk their differences and worked together to win the majority.
In fact Babush Monserrate won by 850 votes against Parrikkar son who had infighting support.
So nonsense.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Mar 2022 05:49

Is there a full text in English of PM Modiji remarks today at BJP HQ?

bala · Post by **bala** » 11 Mar 2022 05:59

For non-BJP states, the BJP should come up with a plan which is easily sellable and people can quickly jump onto. Besides getting suitable people and leader(s), a simple mandate to state that all will be treated alike without conditions. A program of fixing all the current "woes" in the state for infrastructure, law and order, civic amenities, more metros in tier 2,3,4 towns, etc. Just borrow money and kick start all programs simultaneously, show quick progress, cleanliness, showcase a few high profile projects. A slogan like we will make your state like Gujarat would help. Give babus 10x the current goal metrics and drive them hard. A plan that is easy to understand and would work quickly is needed.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 11 Mar 2022 06:01

Pardon me if this has been discussed already . . . .

Looks like a good chunk of the minority women did vote for BJP in UP, otherwise it won't be possible to win minority dominated Deoband seat.

https://www.opindia.com/2022/03/bjp-win ... 104-votes/

williams · Post by **williams** » 11 Mar 2022 06:10

bala wrote:Aah, the kshatrapas TMC (WB), AAP (NCR & Punjab), TRS (TG), YSRCP (AP), DMK (TN), CPIM (KL) are ideal for external entities to use their shoulders and fire away at India and eat away at the power in the Center. You speak to the average Gopal (all well educated and upper middle class) and they blame Mudi/BJP for all their woes. So much fake news is embedded in their brains, all carefully crafted by forces outside. Most Indians have the Stockholm syndrome, empathize with the victimizer, Indians bad, videshi good nonsense.

BJP still needs a lot more ground workers and state-level leadership to make a dent in these states. For that BJP needs to stand alone and not make some dumb alliance with some regional parties even if it means losing for some time. Plus none of these parties can make a dent in other states.

But it sounds like Congis are gone for good and these regional parties will take their place for some time. It is the next level of transition, the fight should continue.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 11 Mar 2022 06:18

ramana wrote:Is there a full text in English of PM Modiji remarks today at BJP HQ?

No, but it was a unusually lengthy speech touching upon a lot of subjects and not all related to politics. I listened to his entire speech and here are the highlights :

1. He congratulated the voters and BJP karyakartas of all 5 states including Punjab.
2. He made a special mention of women voters several times.
3. He said BJP in Punjab has made a new beginning and it will continue to grow.
4. He sounded like a BRFite and used the word "ecosystem" while explaining how corruption investigations are scuttled and reputation of investigating agencies purposefully damaged by the "ecosystem" that wants to protect the criminals and corrupt.
5. He mentioned how BJP today has won a coastal state, a north eastern border state, a northern border state and a enormous state that has 1/6th of India's population.
6. He acknowledged inflation and blamed it on covid supply chain and war in Ukraine.
7. While continuing on inflation he mentioned how cooking oil and petrol prices are soaring and hence we need to be atmanirbhar ( i did not understand this point).
8. He spoke of last mile delivery and how his experience as a 3 term CM helped him understand the problems in achieving this goal.
9. He spoke about India's covid management, successful vaccine program and how the opposition parties tried to ruin it.
10. He spoke how the opposition parties bring regionalism, linguistic politics in everything including the evacuation of students from Ukraine.
11. We (BJP) must not rest on our laurels but work hard towards development, upliftment of masses and keep moving towards winning 2024.

That's about it.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 11 Mar 2022 06:27

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 11 Mar 2022 06:31

Ambar wrote: 7. While continuing on inflation he mentioned how cooking oil and petrol prices are soaring and hence we need to be atmanirbhar ( i did not understand this point).

While the import bill of petroleum is well known, what's less known is that the import bill of palm oil per year is $20 billion (1.5 lakh crore) . Our palm oil import bill now exceeds the import bill of the following items:
* computer equipment
* telecom equipment
* all transport equipment combined (aircraft, automobiles, ships...)
Palm oil import bill is approaching 50% of the import bill of gold.

CalvinH · Post by **CalvinH** » 11 Mar 2022 06:36

Dilbu wrote:BJP will lose onlee.

Many thanks DIlbuallah...we owe the victory to you...

Anoop · Post by **Anoop** » 11 Mar 2022 06:39

Ambar wrote:7. While continuing on inflation he mentioned how cooking oil and petrol prices are soaring and hence we need to be atmanirbhar ( i did not understand this point).

https://www.news18.com/news/opinion/rus ... 56714.html

Amidst the Russia-Ukraine war, imports of sunflower oil are getting affected. India imports 25 lakh tonnes of sunflower oil annually, of which 70 per cent comes from Ukraine, 20 per cent from Russia and 10 per cent from Argentina. Since our dependence on edible oil imports is around 60 per cent (of the total consumption), the government of India is weighing and exploring all possible options to source edible oil from other countries to maintain domestic supply and keep local retail prices stable.

The import price of crude palm oil is around Rs 1.45 lakh per tonne whereas crude sunflower oil is at Rs 1.46 lakh per tonne. In January, the import price of crude palm oil was Rs 1.11 lakh per tonne and the price of crude sunflower oil was Rs 1.15 lakh per tonne. When the costs for processing, packaging and transportation as well as the dealer and retailer margins are added, these edible oil retail prices reach Rs 175-180 per litre. These prices may increase further if the war between Russia and Ukraine continues....

It should prepare a purchase guarantee scheme at minimum support price (MSP) for farmers producing mustard, soya bean, groundnut and sunflower. This can be started with groundnut and soya bean in the coming Kharif season.

shaun · Post by **shaun** » 11 Mar 2022 07:28

CalvinH wrote:
Dilbu wrote:BJP will lose onlee.
Many thanks DIlbuallah...we owe the victory to you...

Yes let's not forget the stellar work done by Dibluddin , more power to you.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 11 Mar 2022 08:46

ramana wrote:Kati quite true.
Also the BJP seats were won after a hard fight.
The BJP vote share is 10> than SP yet over 50 seats were not won compared to 2017.

I think need to improve total voteshare to >50% for 2024.

That is well on the cards. In 2017 VS the NDA voteshare was 41%, followed up with a 50% voteshare in LS 2019...even with bua/babua alliance.

In 2022, the NDA voteshare seems around 45% (BJP , ADS, and Nishad). With proper governance delivery and progress on mandir, etc...50+% in 2024 is not at all a tough ask.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 11 Mar 2022 08:52

I also did the same math initially about BSP vote transfer. But it is not so simple, obviously!! BJP lost some small but significant numbers of jats, yadavs, rajbhars etc. This has been overcompensated by BSP. Sure, some BSP and Congi votes went to SP....mostly the green consolidation. We will need to see some data that show distribution of the votes of various communities. The "simple math" is totally misleading.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 11 Mar 2022 09:22

vimal wrote:
Baikul wrote:
Manipur? Bheji were you expecting such an easy UK win?
Look at the final numbers to see what i mean.
UP and UK were net loss for BJP.

Manipur and Goa were massive upswing for BJP which is an amazing achievement given Covid disruptions and incumbent government.
Manipur is also a border state so that makes it even more important.

…..

Unfortunately, news results of smaller states get swallowed up by the hype around larger states like UP.

I really hope BJP high command does something about the UK state BJP unit. Maybe get an outsider.

Saar permit me to disagree. The BJP win in Uttarakhand is historic and massive.

Yes I will say that the one thing BJP has to watch out for is vote share which has declined by 46.5 to 44.8 per cent while INC has increase its vote share by 5 per cent to 38.3. (If you further parse BJP’s vote share has declined in the plains, in the hills it has improved slightly but that’s another discussion)

One, this win is historic because never in the past has any ruling party gone on to form the succeeding government post elections. The ruling party has always lost since the state was created. This is unprecedented.

Second, massive. Assuming that the BJP gets 48 out of 70 seats that’s above 68 percent of the assembly. Granted that it is the 81 per cent capture of the last time but we’re IMO nitpicking at this point.

As a comparison BJP with 274/403 in Uttar Pradesh has captured just under 68 percent. Goa 20/40 is 50 per cent and Manipur 32/60 is a shade above 53 percent.

This win i Uttarakhand has happened despite:

1. Huge unemployment levels the state last year (Highest in India IIRC)
2. Multiple anti government agitations by various interest groups (ambulances, Aanganwadi to name two)
3. General public frustration with many MLAs and ministers in government
4. Other factors such as Pandits protesting against the temple committee restructuring (char sham board, which was withdrawn by the BJP)

This is just to name a few.

So I would state that this is an incredible win, saar.”, not the least because the INC in Uttarakhand is now in free fall (this is my opinion but hopefully it is informed opinion ). If it doesn’t act decisively the Congress will soon face utter worker demoralisation and significant movement away of workers, and its very existence in Uttarakhand is under serious threat.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 11 Mar 2022 09:33

^^ Lets agree to disagree but I still stand firm with my statement that "I really hope BJP high command does something about the UK state BJP unit. Maybe get an outsider."

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 11 Mar 2022 09:45

ramana wrote:Is there a full text in English of PM Modiji remarks today at BJP HQ?

lets see if we can find the english text but in the meanwhile here is the video of his speech after the victory

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfcxc2p9OHs

#BJP #ELECTION2022 #UttarPradesh
PM Modi addresses Party Karyakartas at BJP HQ in Delhi

achy · Post by **achy** » 11 Mar 2022 09:48

rsingh wrote:
Atmavik wrote:

My vote is for a second term to Shri Kovind
It will either a SIKH or a Muslim. Keeping 2024 in mind. BJ P has big work to do in Punjab and seculars are to be pacified.Arif Sir is good candidate but I do not know of any descent Sikh politician who is retiring. Badal candidature may bring Akalis closer to BJP.But
his past is a heavy stone.JMT

If I have to place a bet it will be on Yedurappa. 1. It is going to be a political choice 2. It is going to be from South 3. It will be either from TN or KA. I am veering towards KA as BJP will like to consolidate KA rather then gamble on TN.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 11 Mar 2022 09:55

Jaspal Bhatti (first posthumous president), no one will object, and is a Sikh also.

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 11 Mar 2022 10:16

achy wrote: If I have to place a bet it will be on Yedurappa. 1. It is going to be a political choice 2. It is going to be from South 3. It will be either from TN or KA. I am veering towards KA as BJP will like to consolidate KA rather then gamble on TN.

Gov is enough for Yeddi. we need to choose a president carefully.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 11 Mar 2022 10:30

Atmavik wrote:
achy wrote: If I have to place a bet it will be on Yedurappa. 1. It is going to be a political choice 2. It is going to be from South 3. It will be either from TN or KA. I am veering towards KA as BJP will like to consolidate KA rather then gamble on TN.
Gov is enough for Yeddi. we need to choose a president carefully.

very true.

has to be taint free too

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 11 Mar 2022 10:57

ramana wrote:
vijayk wrote:
Planets don't rise moron.
Only sun rises.

Ramana sir, in the words of the great sage Sri Einstein - 'Everything is relative onlee'

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 11 Mar 2022 11:27

Atri ji uvach:

https://twitter.com/Kal_Chiron/status/1 ... BCBcg&s=19

Another feature of yesterday’s results was work done by @Dev_Fadnavis in Goa.

He was in charge of election campaign first in Bihar and now Goa. Played a pivotal role in succession of power in Karnataka between Yeddy and Bommai.

Goa was a tough paper to crack.

Especially rebellion of Utpal Parrikar made it a tricky operation. He controlled that damage really well.

Last time BJP had 13 seats, Congress had 17 but still BJP managed to form Govt due to string pulling from Nagpur (By Gadkari) and personal charisma of Manohar Parrikar.

Keeping fox and SS immobile while manoeuvring to win 20 seats in spite of 10 year incumbency - and all this while hurting Utpal (and the cadre) as little as possible- very delicate.

His speech in MH-Vidhan Sabha had twin effect. It has created huge problems for Pawar Govt.

At the same time it rendered Pawar Gang incapable of manoeuvring in Goa.

Just like 2019 (LS), he kept opposition tied down on issue of his choice which is in itself serious enough to imprison few more cabinet ministers of Pawar govt and at the time of his choice

BJP needs the continued domination on western states : GJ-MH-Goa-KN : the economic powerhouse of India.

If all goes well, DF is emerging as uncontested influencer of this block of states. Around 100 seats.

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 11 Mar 2022 11:41

Sir please dont overstate DF's prowess, he is at best a great administrator, however, nowhere near the qualities of Himanta, Yogi or Annamalai when it comes to sharpness, guile and daringness. I still cant forgive him for being so naive and lose the most important state of MH. Even worse, he couldnt even bring down the Govt, his supporters of course give this to his great chanakyan thought of discrediting and making the alliance lose credibility. Thats kind of BS, MP was brought down. Habing a Govt in MH was all the more needed here given the amount of money supply available to the oppn from this state. I also believe that he has a good loyal band of journos doing bhajan of his great chanakian abilities etc

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 11 Mar 2022 11:45

Manish_P wrote:
ramana wrote:
Planets don't rise moron.
Only sun rises.
Ramana sir, in the words of the great sage Sri Einstein - 'Everything is relative onlee'

Yep if you are on moon earth rise and set in opposit direction direction. Logic

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 11 Mar 2022 11:48

Atmavik wrote:
achy wrote: If I have to place a bet it will be on Yedurappa. 1. It is going to be a political choice 2. It is going to be from South 3. It will be either from TN or KA. I am veering towards KA as BJP will like to consolidate KA rather then gamble on TN.
Gov is enough for Yeddi. we need to choose a president carefully.

VP from south at present I do not much compelling reasoning in above suggestion.

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 11 Mar 2022 12:01

rsingh wrote:
Manish_P wrote:
Ramana sir, in the words of the great sage Sri Einstein - 'Everything is relative onlee'
Yep if you are on moon earth rise and set in opposit direction direction. Logic

Eggajctly Rsingh sa'ab.. it requires escape velocity of Jupiter level thinking...

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 11 Mar 2022 12:08

Question: what Raga might be going through right now? How he is facing mirror ?What Madam is thinking?one thing is clear....Surjewala"s days are numbered. A complete overhaul of leadership is needed.who is right alternative right now?
I think first of all they have to stop critcizing mofi on every occasion. Stop going against majority. Stop wired remarks about religion and foreign policy. Instead they have to focus on ground work and win the heart and mind of majority. That is only chance they have.