Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

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chetak
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by chetak »

the three musketeers or the three stooges

none of them willing to shoulder any responsibility for the debacle


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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by Cyrano »

3 idiots
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by Sachin »

Women, upper castes propelled BJP to UP triumph, shows survey
Women voters and caste consolidation of Brahmins, Rajputs and upper castes helped the BJP sail through in Uttar Pradesh, where the party stormed back to power for a second consecutive term.
“Women were at the forefront of beneficiaries, and gas, toilet and most importantly the housing schemes were important to them. These schemes were minimising their dependency on male members,”
The elections also saw a realignment of caste consolidation, with Muslims and Yadavs standing firmly behind the SP and the Rajputs and upper castes behind the BJP.

Infighting within Congress worsens, Tagore asks Sibal why he's speaking 'language of RSS/BJP' :lol:.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by Pratyush »

It seems that RSS enjoys a large than life mind share in Congress leaders than is strictly warranted.

That's why they are unable to see the real threat from the dynasty.

They seem to not understand that inorder to beat BJP they need to have a surviving party.

An interesting pathology.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by vijayk »

KUJLI gang are spending se wrL crores and cut 40 acres of wheat crop for oath.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by sajo »

chetak wrote:the three musketeers or the three stooges

none of them willing to shoulder any responsibility for the debacle


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Is it just me or has Sidhu gained tremendous weight in recent times? Buckling under the weight of expectations and hence making wrong health choices ? As a former sportsperson, he should know better.

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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by nachiket »

Sachin wrote:Women, upper castes propelled BJP to UP triumph, shows survey
Women voters and caste consolidation of Brahmins, Rajputs and upper castes helped the BJP sail through in Uttar Pradesh, where the party stormed back to power for a second consecutive term.
“Women were at the forefront of beneficiaries, and gas, toilet and most importantly the housing schemes were important to them. These schemes were minimising their dependency on male members,”
Going forward I hope Yogiji and the Central government works doubly hard in UP for the Nal se Jal scheme. UP is one of the worse performing states in that regard and the burden of filling pails of water and bringing it back for the family also usually falls on the female members of the household. If the BJP govt. can reduce that burden in UP to a significant extent it will further consolidate the lead in women voters which they have.

The other big takeaway from this election is that there is likely to be a massive contest between the BJP and the SP to turn Mayawati's remaining Jatav votebank towards them. The Jatav's are going to see that she is practically finished as a serious contender and will be looking for options to avoid electoral irrelevance. She still has 13% of the vote. Whoever can move the biggest chunk of this towards themselves will do very well in 2024 and 2027.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by Suraj »

I haven't been looking at it as closely I did once, but the problem with UP and Jal Jeevan Mission is the amount of basic water treatment infrastructure that needed to be set up in UP before it could offer large scale connectivity to households. In this regard its progress is likely to be non-linear, with a large lag as the basic infrastructure comes up, then rapid improvement in connectivity. However, UP is at odds with Bihar, whose 90% coverage at present is vastly superior to any southern state bar Telangana. I don't know the two states well, so I'm unsure why they differ so much. But I agree that the progress of JJM in UP will have a direct bearing on its performance in GE 2024 and thus will directly impact the nation as a whole.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by nachiket »

Indeed the performance of Bihar is quite unbelievable especially compared to the states immediately around it. Would be nice if we have someone here who has seen the situation on the ground in Bihar and can provide some insight.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by Avik »

water table is quite high in Bihar compared to UP and Orissa. Bihar is practically criss-crossed with multiple rivers.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by achy »

One line verdict of UP'22 is We are headed full steam for Republic 2.0! Republic 1.0 was based on "post modern ideas like westphalian state, common jurisprudence with cognizance of individual and group rights, and administering to prepare heathens eventually for liberating their soul. In another word, our Republic was appropriately colonized version of X2.0... X is Christ for uninitiated.. We the, unsuspecting mass, bought it whole heartedly knowing little that a two pronged attack from people of peace and people of love will ensue. Even more unfortunate was that our "leaders" like gandi and nehru fell for that illusive "idea of India". 70 years late, a realization, albeit partially, has sunk in People that there is no way out but to unite to fight.

Electorally UP'22 has delivered many tangibles. In descending order it will be, 1. India's most imp state will be ruled by Yogi for 5 more years. In terms of population, UP is 5th largest country and if Yogi can turn around UP, it will be even more sterling job than what Modi did for Gujrat.
2. BJP's Hindu aware social coalition decisively defeated the islamic veto of Indian polity. Call it Panipat3.5; SP stitched together MY+ coalition this time with disgruntled sainis, rajbhars, patels, etc. 99.99% peacefuls voted for SP, but still they lost. This victory will resonate across India. Now only votes up for grabs in 2024 is Jatavs and they will switch more towards BJP then SP. Expect even bigger victory in 24.
3. UP'22 paved the most important question of, after Modi who? Yogi has emerged as the brightest star, not just in BJP, but India's skyline. There is no precedent of any chief minister completing full five year term and returning in UP. He has right ideological credentials and he only needs to varnish it with achievements of second term. Roadmap of second term is already there so all he needs is to execute it. But it is always 1% planning and 99% execution in politics. He has the will, nous, energy to execute it. He will need some luck too.

Finally, I do believe that we may achieve more then 2/3rd majority to birth Republic 2.0... R2 will be based on India's civilizational ethos, not western post modern ideals, but with caveats for people not subscribing it.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by Mukhi »

^^
In all this, my genuine worry is, PK factor and sabotage from within, from the likes of SuSwa and Niteshwa.

PK’s Arithmetic is not illogical. Have followed him since his NaMo days and he is not someone to be taken lightly. Leta see what May 2 Brings. More than likely, simething feom Bihar as he has laid good ground work for a new party.

Gujarat Election will be an indicator of future to come for BJP as it almost lost it last time.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by Manish_Sharma »

Mukhi wrote:^^
In all this, my genuine worry is, PK factor and sabotage from within, from the likes of SuSwa and Niteshwa.

PK’s Arithmetic is not illogical. Have followed him since his NaMo days and he is not someone to be taken lightly.
Last night prashant kishore had rajdeep and rahul kanwal in throes of ecstasy as he explained about how focus should be on 40% Hindus that didn't vote for BJP. If that vote is strategically used than BJP can be ousted!
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by chetak »

Manish_Sharma wrote:
Mukhi wrote:^^
In all this, my genuine worry is, PK factor and sabotage from within, from the likes of SuSwa and Niteshwa.

PK’s Arithmetic is not illogical. Have followed him since his NaMo days and he is not someone to be taken lightly.
Last night prashant kishore had rajdeep and rahul kanwal in throes of ecstasy as he explained about how focus should be on 40% Hindus that didn't vote for BJP. If that vote is strategically used than BJP can be ousted!

Manish_Sharma ji,

why would someone as intelligent as pr@$h@nth kisser be discussing his "strategy" publicly and that too on primetime national teevee

don't you think that something is off

remember how he had the bjp focussing on the wrong things while he did entirely something else to advise jehadi didi
ramana
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by ramana »

PK's type of dividing Hindus and adding Minorities is an old mantra. That's failing.
BTW a foreign investment group survey in Telenagan shows BJP will get 74/117.
Hence PK packed up and is out of Hyderabad.
These numbers tally with inner surveys.
Take a look at the broad response to #TheKashmirFiles.
Its igniting Hindu awareness and consolidation like a TN.

Please do a deep dive into the numbers and see 2022 was SP's last stand also.
Akalless ->Ajalfles and even that did not help.
In fact, last 5 years he was in the UK visiting nightclubs and parachuted for elections.
He will go back.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by Ambar »

There will be many elections BJP will win and there will be many elections BJP will lose, this will happen with or without PK. After peaking in 2017, BJP lost a string of states in 2018 including some of its fortresses and nearly lost GJ to a dead INC. Momata for all her nutty antics is a smart woman, she clearly understood that outside of running a tight campaign PK did not contribute one iota to TMC's voteshare, same with Nitish Kumar as well and hence he ousted PK from JDU. So no, PK makes no difference to BJP's electoral prospects win or lose.

While BJP has many things going for them at the center, they have huge problems in almost all states except MP and Assam. In UP the internal sabotage nearly sunk Yogi and some ultra-corrupt, inept MLAs and ministers costed BJP a good 50 seats. SP will be studying dozens of seats that they lost with less than 5k to 6k margins, especially in constituencies that were supposed to be BJP stronghold. Karnataka is a hopeless case, the 4 factions of BJP will continue to drag each other and if the UP elections had gone the other way then Karnataka govt would have collapsed by now. I have very little hopes of BJP returning to power in Karnataka. In RJ BJP needs to decide if they want to go with Raje or Satish Poonia or someone else. One would think a lackluster leader like Gehlot and his mishandling of covid and increasing islamization of RJ will result in a huge wave in favor of BJP but we have seen the opposite. BJP lost the byelections miserably, and in 2 constituencies where they won with huge margins in 2013, the BJP candidates came 3rd and 4th ! I feel atleast for 2023 the party leadership needs to rally behind Vasundhara Raje and if she wins then replace her just before 2028.

GJ is a a tough nut to crack. BJP has been in power continuously for 24 yrs now and the state has also done incredibly well during this period but there is always the anti-incumbency factor after such a long stint. I thought Vijay Rupani had done well given the challenging environment so i was surprised when he was replaced in favor of Bhupendrabhai Patel. No matter who the CM face is, in GJ it is clear that BJP will continue to contest elections with Modi and Amit Shah at the front.

Chattisgarh is the biggest BJP self goal. The factionalism is what cost Raman Singh his seat and since then instead of learning from mistakes and taking the fight to INC, BJP seems to have all but folded. Day in and day out you see Bhupesh Bhagel's statements and his actions go unchallenged, very similar to BJP in Jharkhand where the party leaders appear to have melted to ground after the elections. I still think BJP should court Dhoni as a future leader of Jharkhand.

2024 won't be easy but the challenge will mostly come from Kejri and INC. There are many states that are ripe for AAP to move in and claim stake. Most likely atleast for the elections the 3rd front will rally behind Kejri with PK orchestrating the pieces. Too bad for PK and his political ambitions because Kejri has a history of not tolerating internal challengers.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by ramana »

Voting patterns in UP Muslim villages

https://twitter.com/Hiranyareta/status/ ... lGtrw&s=19
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by vimal »

I pray for a long and healthy life for Shri Rahul Gandhiji and Shrimati Priyanka Vadraji.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by arshyam »

On to Gujarat, next?
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by vimal »

Until next time mitron IB4TL

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Last edited by vimal on 26 Mar 2022 11:39, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by morem »

always wanted to do this, IB4TL
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by ramana »

No. There is a bye-election in Asansol, Bengal and later on, Himachal and Gujarat are on the horizon.
Besides we have not truly understood the impact of these 5 state elections yet.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by KL Dubey »

ramana
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by ramana »

Thanks.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by Baikul »

ramana wrote:No. There is a bye-election in Asansol, Bengal and later on, Himachal and Gujarat are on the horizon.
Besides we have not truly understood the impact of these 5 state elections yet.
There’s also the chief minister Dhami’s bye election in Uttarakhand, dates were announced today.

https://theprint.in/politics/champawat- ... st/940278/
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by ramana »

Thanks, I had put the thread title as Assembly elections 2022.
Despite the eagerness to close the thread, it's only May now!
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by OmkarC »

Hi all,

I mentioned a while back I will post something in-depth on BJP’s chances in Telangana.. Got held up with personal & business stuff, finally found time.. here is my take:

Context
———
Telangana goes to Assembly polls by Dec’2023. Situation is very different now than it was a few months back, back then it was shaping out to be a 2-way TRS vs BJP contest. Right now, it is more 3-way with Congress picking up in recent months. That said, things could still change in the run up to the polls.


Latest developments
———
Why congress picked up? Frankly, Congress was always a strong party in TG, not just because they are the ones who created TG state in reality, but there are some strong district level leaders who are trusted by people. I had mentioned about Komatireddy brothers in Nalgonda as an example. And this is something even BJP’s top leadership including Modi know. Recently one of the Komatireddy brothers asked for an appointment with the PM to discuss a local issue, and he was apparently granted an appointment within 30 mins of asking !(something which many CMs and mid-level foreign dignitaries don’t get). Its great that BJP central leadership knows minute details of local politicians in this state. Despite such flattering attention from Modi himself, there is an invisible glue holding together these district level strong leaders to Congress - it could be caste or the contractor-commission culture which may not work out in BJP. TRS has really not done much for the state’s poor - there are bus loads of people leaving the state for doing menial jobs in Mumbai or Pune, people don’t have any free housing benefits like in other states, but there are dozens of liquor shops opening in each district. Very poor governance indeed. But they still have some serious good will in terms of the charismatic leadership & emotive Telangana factor (but they are wearing out) . TRS is jittery of BJP and their ideology driven politics, prefers congress as their opposition and may end up having a tacit backdoor understanding to make it a 2-way race to wipe out BJP.


Where does BJP stand
———
Not much foot hold has been gained in the southern and eastern part of the state, and the party is also slightly weakening in the north. The party is uncharacteristically mired in groups and divisions as well, these are not very serious though and are hidden from public view unlike congress, of course. State chief Bandi Sanjay is an aggressive street fighter type, and he has grown the party well, but apparently doesn’t get along w/ some seniors. Then there are new entrants like Eetela Rajender who have CM ambitions of their own, but doesn’t come from an RSS/Hindutva background (in fact used to be a naxal sympathizer/communist). Party had expected a lot more senior leaders from both TRS & Congress to flock them after a string of victories in by-polls. But nothing of that sort has happened.


Factors that work for BJP in Assy polls
———
1. The biggest factor that could work for them is that they are an opposition party that is not congress. People who are unhappy w/ TRS will think twice before voting for congress as both in 2014 and 2018, most congress MLAs ditched congress and joined TRS wiping out opposition and enabling KCR to rule TG as his fiefdom. History shows across the entire country that BJP MLAs are very unlikely to switch over like congress MLAs.
2. There is ground level discontent w/ many promised schemes not materializing. Dalit Bandhu is some schemes have been promised but not delivered.
3. “Double engine sarkar” concept can definitely help get through the message to poor people who are suffering TRS misrule. Pradhan mantra awas yojana that resulted in lakhs of houses being built across other states was not implemented in TG due to fear of increasing Modi’s popularity. Even West Bengal took this scheme, but Telangana refused. Then there is Ayushman Bharat scheme that hasn’t been implemented, which could’ve helped folks in Covid. There could be some takers for this.
4. State chief, Bandi Sanjay is a good mass leader and can easily connect w/ poor masses, also very aggressive w/ his outreach. His pada -yatra is also having an effect at grass root level.
5. Rabid muslim appeasement by TRS and secret TRS-MIM understanding is also polarizing votes in some areas. Not a substantial overall advantage though.


Factors that work for CON-party in Assy polls
———
1. Congress has gained in recent times by following their tried and tested strategy that helped them in MP & Rajasthan state elections of promising farmers impossible rates for their produce and farm loan waiver of 2 lakhs. Even though Rajasthan and Chattisgarh have not been able to implement farm loan waivers, they are selling the same old snake oil in the same bottle for Telangana. Its impact will be known in polls, but party cadre has at least been energized.
2. Congress is not in power either in centre or state - they can blame each one or both for all issues plaguing the state.
3. Rahul Gandhi has taken a few good decisions: especially having Revanth Reddy as the state chief. Not many know that he is formerly from ABVP. As slimy and corrupt as he is, he is politically very sharp, dynamic & knows how to speak well. He has obviously split the party, but after Rahul Gandhi’s latest visit it seems like all feuding groups are slowly coming together.
4. Party is picking up key issues well - for eg: even the corruption in Yadagiri Gutta temple construction and issues faced by Pilgrims, for eg. They are organizationally more strong than BJP in south & eastern TG.
5. Influential Reddy community is solidly still behind the Con-party, though recently BJP is making some inroads.

Factors that work for TRS in Assy polls
———
1. TRS is head & shoulders above both parties, because they will make it a one man show of KCR vs others. Both Con & BJP don’t have a CM face that can stand up to KCR.
2. TRS still has at least 4-5 strong leaders for each MLA seat, and regardless of who is put up, will be the candidate to beat in every single seat of the state. It will be TRS rejects who will likely be BJP or congress candidates in some areas.
3. Spending ~2000 crore on Lord Narasimha’s Yadagiri gutta temple (even if there are minor allegations of poor quality) shows KCR is not anti-Hindu.
4. Excellent at backdoor politics, MIM’s full support in ensuring minority vote bank transfer in exchange for continuous support to Owaisi’s national ambitions.

Prediction (w/ a bucket of salt)
———
KCR/TRS will likely win another term (perhaps narrowly) with a tacit understanding w/ congress - the latter will transfer votes in assembly polls in exchange for TRS reciprocating the same for MP seats. It will be a fight for 2nd place in Assy polls, it is too close to say BJP or Congress. I think people will need to think whether its even worth voting for Congress if their MLAs keep switching to TRS as soon as they get elected. BJP also has to have some magic like Balakot to repeat 2019 polls where they got 4 MP seats. Let’s see how Amit Shah’s rally goes tomorrow, can have long term repercussions..
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by ramana »

Did Balakote even make a difference in the TG Lok Sabha elections?

I think a few more seats could be won if not for inner-party issues.

Please take a look at the few seats that BJP lost or came in second in 2019.
So Northern TG and Western TG are BJP areas?
Can you put a map to clarify?


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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by KL Dubey »

Just FYI, this is "Assembly Elections 2022" thread, not 2023.

TG election is important, remember 1.5 years is a lawwwwwnnng tyme in poltugiri.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by ramana »

Rumor is KCR wants to advance the polls to pre-empt Opposition consolidation.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by OmkarC »

ramana wrote:Did Balakote even make a difference in the TG Lok Sabha elections?
Yes, not sure I can give a data driven answer, but there are interviews from journalists where rural youth & cadre were energized and MP seat in Karimnagar and Adilabad and retaining Sec'bad is proof of energized cadre working overtime to ensure victories. Nizamabad victory was mostly due to KCR's daughter not delivering much and the turmeric board issue (which the current BJP MP also seems to have failed to deliver on and as such may be in trouble next time).
ramana wrote: So Northern TG and Western TG are BJP areas?
Can you put a map to clarify?
Can't see the map, but if you want details: the northern areas I am referring to are Adilabad, Karimnagar and Nizamabad where they have MP seats and existing organization. TRS is still strong in every one of those assembly segments though. The west I am referring to is Mahboobnagar and Chevella constituencies, where they are gaining slowly accordingly to reports. In Mahboobnagar, DK Aruna's entry has been a good sign and there is confirmed increase of strength. In Chevella, I heard Konda Vishveshwar Reddy is considering joining BJP (not confirmed, he met with Amit shah recently). He is a good leader from congress and lost to TRS narrowly in recent MP elections.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by ramana »

Thanks.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by Vayutuvan »

North-east belt is heavily leftist who are allied with TRS. Peddapally can go either way with advantage TRS. My educated guess.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by venkat_kv »

OmkarC wrote:Hi all,

I mentioned a while back I will post something in-depth on BJP’s chances in Telangana.. Got held up with personal & business stuff, finally found time.. here is my take:

Context
———
Telangana goes to Assembly polls by Dec’2023. Situation is very different now than it was a few months back, back then it was shaping out to be a 2-way TRS vs BJP contest. Right now, it is more 3-way with Congress picking up in recent months. That said, things could still change in the run up to the polls.


3. Rahul Gandhi has taken a few good decisions: especially having Revanth Reddy as the state chief. Not many know that he is formerly from ABVP. As slimy and corrupt as he is, he is politically very sharp, dynamic & knows how to speak well. He has obviously split the party, but after Rahul Gandhi’s latest visit it seems like all feuding groups are slowly coming together.
4. Party is picking up key issues well - for eg: even the corruption in Yadagiri Gutta temple construction and issues faced by Pilgrims, for eg. They are organizationally more strong than BJP in south & eastern TG.
5. Influential Reddy community is solidly still behind the Con-party, though recently BJP is making some inroads.

Factors that work for TRS in Assy polls
———
........
Prediction (w/ a bucket of salt)
———
KCR/TRS will likely win another term (perhaps narrowly) with a tacit understanding w/ congress - the latter will transfer votes in assembly polls in exchange for TRS reciprocating the same for MP seats. It will be a fight for 2nd place in Assy polls, it is too close to say BJP or Congress. I think people will need to think whether its even worth voting for Congress if their MLAs keep switching to TRS as soon as they get elected. BJP also has to have some magic like Balakot to repeat 2019 polls where they got 4 MP seats. Let’s see how Amit Shah’s rally goes tomorrow, can have long term repercussions..
Thanks for giving a detailed analysis for the TG coming elections OmkarC. But did you consider a snippet that TRS itself seems to be hyping up the congress to create a split in the anti- TRS votes. They tried the same thing during Etala Rajender's by-election issue.
Revanth speaks very well and is well versed with corruption of the TRS, but is Kejri- lite in terms of increasing his profile over everything else. Ofcourse he is also related to erstwhile MP Jaypal Reddy through marriage who retired with Congress but was also with communists during his early days. Reavnth was the TDP telangana head from 2015-2016 or so till his jump into congress.

One more thing to take into consideration is there is barely any media coverage that is pro-BJP or anti TRS. and many will not know, but in terms of street violence TRS is TMC lite. they are equally violent cadres that go about beating and abusing anyone and everyone who don't toe their line.TRS issues a diktat unofficially, and the media drops most of the issues. There might be anti-TRS sentiment, but will BJP be the sole one to take advantage of it and will people prefer BJP to TRS or still think that TRS overall is better even with the corruption.

the BJP will also have to highlight Congress freebies that they announced in other states of Rajastahan, Chattisgarh, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh was not implemented. Normally the media have to do this and ask the questions, but since they are busy with the ususal things these are unchallenged.

So BJP might find it difficult to come to power in the next elections trying to highlight most of the corruption and lack of governance. They should try to position themselves as the main opposition with the next elections and then take it from there.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by ramana »

Good analysis.
Usually after creation of a new state the regional party get power for two to three decades.
The. fact TRS is on the ropes by 8 years shows people are wary and know the issues despite elite and media suppression.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by KL Dubey »

In GJ the congis have been seeing waves of defection, to the point that the BJP's 2017 election tally of 99 has swelled to 111 by now. This keeps going on...with Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor et al also joining the BJP.

In HP too, defections have started - including the Congi "working president" for the state:

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 835956.ece
KL Dubey
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by KL Dubey »

Opinion poll presentation (as of Aug 30) from Shawn Jay Dixie and Aab-e-sheikh al-Tiwwari:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfbV1OmpBw8

Summary:

GJ a done deal. AAP is making no impact yet.

HP has considerable anti-incumbency...BJP is still seen to be squeaking through at the moment, but can do better with a sensible candidate selection. AAP seems to have flopped, the state leaders have resigned and folded up operations, frustrated with interference from "Sirji" and cronies in Delhi.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by KL Dubey »

In HP the Jal Jeevan mission has gone from 44% to 95% over the last 3 years. Surely something for Modi to highlight there.
nachiket
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022

Post by nachiket »

BJP should be careful with importing too many ex-Congressis. Things do not always work out so well with them. I remember some high profile defections prior to the 2019 MH polls as well. Expectations were high that BJP+SS will reach 200 seats. But their total actually fell compared to 2014. Then there was the Bengal experience. People do not always appreciate these defectors and may not vote for them if they contest on BJP tickets. Plus there are those within the BJP who will find their own prospects threatened by these "outsiders" and may sow discord internally because of it.
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