Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

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Atmavik
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Atmavik »

I am watching Adani TV so u dont have to.. will be posting heartburn moments
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Atmavik »

Tripura is not looking good
Sachin
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Sachin »

KL Dubey wrote:OK, results are coming out.. seems like clean NDA sweep in TR and NL.
Tripura is getting dicey. The Motha party folks may become the king makers.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Kati »

My prediction about Tripura was 25 for BJP.

Looks like BJP has done little better than I thought. The state party was destroyed by the ex-CM Biplab Deb, and then barely a few months ago Manik Saha was installed to stem the rot. The local level info is that had Manik Saha were installed two years ago then party could have wrestled 35+ seats.

The X-factor is Tipra Motha party (a new tribal outfit floated by Pradyut Dev Barman who has made outlandish demands that original areas of Tripura kingdom should be brought back from Bangladesh and be merged into a tribal autonomous region (with the eye of forming a separate tribal state).
Last edited by Kati on 02 Mar 2023 13:00, edited 1 time in total.
sajo
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by sajo »

MH Assembly Bypolls -
BJP likely losing the Kasba Peth (Old Pune) seat , considered an "extremely safe" seat since 1978, when Aravind Lele won on a Janata Party ticket. Last 6 Elections were all won by the BJP. I suspect demographic change in Old Pune, have been suspecting since long.
Dev Fadnavis had thrown his weight behind the candidate too. The PimpriChinchawad seat is likely to go to the deceased BJP MLA's wife, albeit by a slim margin.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Dilbu »

BJP will lose onlee :(( :(( :((
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by KL Dubey »

Ifs and buts are all good, a win is a win....
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by sajo »

Dilbu wrote:BJP will lose onlee :(( :(( :((
Thanks for Showing up Dilbu saar !
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Dilbu »

Last minute push for Tripura.
BJP will lose onlee :(( :(( :((
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by KL Dubey »

MH trends...chinchwad BJP candidate is leading comfortably now. Kasba peth close contest <1000 vote margin.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by sajo »

KL Dubey wrote:MH trends...chinchwad BJP candidate is leading comfortably now. Kasba peth close contest <1000 vote margin.
MH news channels are showing a massive lead of 6500 votes for the Kasba INC candidate. Things do not look good at all for the BJP in the 2024 assembly elections. Just 3 rounds left for counting.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by KL Dubey »

Bypolls do not relate to full elections.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by sajo »

KL Dubey wrote:Bypolls do not relate to full elections.
Agreed, they dont... but if BhaJaPa is not able to retain a resolutely Hindu majority seat it was winning for the past 35 years in Pune, and barely scraping past in Chinchawad (where any other BJP candidate other than deceased MLA Laxman Jagtap's wife would have badly lost to NCP's Nana Kate), things definitely do not bode well for them. Residents (before candidature was announced) were pretty sure it would be a cake-walk for saffron.
Sitting MP Girish Bapat's absence could be a factor, he was able to pull a large number of Brahmin votes, so could the deceased MLA Mukta Tilak.

EDIT : I hope there is atleast some DhotiShibber now in the Shinde-Fadnavis camp and they do course correction.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Aditya_V »

sajo wrote:
KL Dubey wrote:Bypolls do not relate to full elections.
Agreed, they dont... but if BhaJaPa is not able to retain a resolutely Hindu majority seat it was winning for the past 35 years in Pune, and barely scraping past in Chinchawad (where any other BJP candidate other than deceased MLA Laxman Jagtap's wife would have badly lost to NCP's Nana Kate), things definitely do not bode well for them. Residents (before candidature was announced) were pretty sure it would be a cake-walk for saffron.
Sitting MP Girish Bapat's absence could be a factor, he was able to pull a large number of Brahmin votes, so could the deceased MLA Mukta Tilak.
That is a huge danger, I think this played a part in 2004 elections also, when you assume it is safe and do not bother the stand in line and vote. The opponent benefits.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Kati »

Overall NE region of Tripura-Nagaland-Meghalaya looks quite positive for BJP.
Interestingly, in christian dominated Meghalaya and Nagaland BJP has expanded its footprint considerably.
NaMo's development work, and solving most of the insurgency related violence have moved a large chunk of people. Also, irrespective of what the rest of Bharat thought, NaMo's one to one meeting with Pope was a huge morale booster for the local BJP units.
In Nagaland, BJP getting hold of 13 seats is quite stunning.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Sachin »

Dilbu wrote:Last minute push for Tripura.
Jinx worked! It is 33/60 now for BJP. The Tripura Motha fellows also will have to now behave themselves, if they want to join BJP government. Watched the Malayalam commie channel Kairali news. They have stopped election analysis, and is now showing news of district wise commie events (like route marches etc.) :D :D . Generally they show cookery programs followed by some outdated movies once reality hits them hard.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by williams »

Congi + Commie alliance failed. So the biggest loser is Congi. Bharat Jado had no impact in NE
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Sachin »

williams wrote:Congi + Commie alliance failed. So the biggest loser is Congi. Bharat Jado had no impact in NE
Looks like Shri. Pappu Ghandi also saw the writing on the wall. He has not campaigned much in North Eastern states, especially Tripura. He had plans for another West to East Jodo yatra, but by then elections are all over.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by SRajesh »

Kati wrote:Overall NE region of Tripura-Nagaland-Meghalaya looks quite positive for BJP.
Interestingly, in christian dominated Meghalaya and Nagaland BJP has expanded its footprint considerably.
NaMo's development work, and solving most of the insurgency related violence have moved a large chunk of people.
.
Intersting that on rNDTV the rhonan dhona about how in NE beef eating is not an issue by the usual suspects :((
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by KL Dubey »

The BJP/NDA continues its winning streak by means of building strong political organization + providing vikas and vishvas (both critical in NE India).

Post-election analysis:

Tripura

Pradyot (ex-Congi) is an interesting character. Outlandish and self-serving demands but in my assessment he is not entirely a Jaichand type.

He dropped the NDA vote share from 50% in 2018 to 40% in 2023. Most of this was by decimating the IPFT (tribal vote) from 7% to 2%. BJP also lost about 3% vote share.

However, he also dropped the Commie+Congi vote from 45% last time to 33%. Precipitous drop for the Commies from 43% last time to barely 25%, whereas Congis actually increased from 2% to 8% (likely the commie vote transfer in some seats, not any sign of Congi organization revival).

So at the end of the day, he played a beneficial role in preventing the Commies from rearing their ugly head again. On some news channels there was even discussion that BJP had propped up Pradyot to get rid of the Commies.

Congis were just along for the ride and have little impact. They got 3 seats, but I fully expect these MLAs to defect to other parties immediately or in a few months. This has become a usual pattern for Congis. Kharge was in Agartala earlier in the day for "government formation", he is probably now trying to stop the 3 MLAs from defecting.

Nagaland

As expected, the state continues its "no opposition"/"friendly election" politics. Congis drew a blank.

The NDA (NDPP+BJP) will form goremint and some of the local parties will join. In the next few 5 years some MLAs will keep moving between these parties, and there will likely be another "friendly" election in 2028.

Main highlight is that BJP continues to expand its footprint considerably, getting 12 seats (from 1 last time) and 19% vote share (4% increase from last time) while contesting just 20 of the 60 seats. A good achievement even with vote transfers.

Meghalaya

BJP maintained its 9% vote share and 2 seats from last time. Not much more to write about that. The main highlight is the Congis again getting decimated. Votes dropped from 28% to 13% due to departure of Mukul Sangma for AITC.

As a result, both the AITC and Congis failed to make much impact, with just 5 seats each. I expect most of these MLAs to switch sides (to NPP or BJP) now or later.

Goremint formation: NPP is at 26 seats, and according to the news they are in touch with BJP and local small parties (who have got 8 seats). Main opposition will be UDP along with the remnants of Congis (if any, after the usual defections) and AITC.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by vijayk »

Maharastra is a big concern.

1. Media strategy failing?
2. Marathi media has become toxic especially after the MVA Govt.
3. CON+NCP+SS(Thackrey) -> Too much ot handle?
4. Pune neglected? Looks like upper castes have run away ...
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Sachin »

KL Dubey wrote:However, he also dropped the Commie+Congi vote from 45% last time to 33%. Precipitous drop for the Commies from 43% last time to barely 25%, whereas Congis actually increased from 2% to 8% (likely the commie vote transfer in some seats, not any sign of Congi organization revival).
...
Congis were just along for the ride and have little impact. They got 3 seats, but I fully expect these MLAs to defect to other parties immediately or in a few months.
For me the best part is the humiliation given to the commies. The CPI(M) shamelessly joined hands with INC to fight BJP. In states like KL, these two are supposed to be rival parties each giving grandoise statements on 'secularism'. The commies of KL till around 10:00Hrs today even dreamt of forming a government in Tripura :rotfl: . Looks like INC actually gained two seats, and commies lost even existing seats. Jobless individuals like Prakash Carrot and Yechuri will have to do lots of 'explanation' :D .
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by vijayk »

https://twitter.com/Shail_CFO/status/16 ... 1888344066

Can anyone from Pune comment?
So BJP lost Kasba seat in Pune while won one in PCMC. Pune voters have shown a lot of maturity in rejecting pervert strategy if BJP whereby they look at Pune only as a vote gathering slave town. Votes and taxes from Pune. Schemes and ravdi elsewhere. 1/n



CA Shailendra Marathe
@Shail_CFO

The Kasba BJP candidate's main achievement was that he increased corporation's revenue. How can this be an achievement when no improvement has been delivered on civic services front? This is like advertising, look, I am here to loot you and give nothing in return. 2/n

CA Shailendra Marathe
@Shail_CFO
Unfortunately all Pune BJP netas are like this. Corporators, MLAs, MPs, Guardian Minister. They have no spine to stand up to state and national leaders on behalf of the city. Suggest they move to Nagpur and fight election from there next time. 3/n


CA Shailendra Marathe
@Shail_CFO
Hopefully this will repeat in the corporation and state elections. Though not too hopeful. Lots of BJP voters have hostage / TINA mentality. I know opposition is worse but how will you incentivise BJP to deliver to their votebase and not to those who don't vote BJP? 4/n


CA Shailendra Marathe
@Shail_CFO

This TINA is for losers. There were messages on social media creating xyz will happen if BJP is not elected in Kasba. Only losers think like this. A political party is replaceable. Alternative will come if you demand. Hopes rise. n/n
Rafiz
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@Shail_CFO
I agree to some extend, BJP corporators in Pune are of no use.
@SidShirole
will never reply to a message. Tilekar of Kondhwa only wants money & gives 2 hoots to the Sangh Karyakarta.....Jawdekar is "abba-jabba".....they lack the spine to stand up for their workers...
Rajendra Shah
@Rajendra195401



@Shail_CFO
Today common punekar celebrate loss of
@Dev_Fadnavis
...
Ignoring pune has been a core strategy... No development and retro property tax post pendamic has affected lot of PPL ..
saroj indian


@Shail_CFO
Any outsider when visit Pune the first impression is people residing are not proud of their city. Haphazard planning, traffic nightmare, poor public transport, airport, banners, encroachment. Those cantonments in city are face savers.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by KL Dubey »

vijayk wrote:Maharastra is a big concern.

1. Media strategy failing?
2. Marathi media has become toxic especially after the MVA Govt.
3. CON+NCP+SS(Thackrey) -> Too much ot handle?
4. Pune neglected? Looks like upper castes have run away ...
There are no elections scheduled in MH until the LS general election in Apr/May 2024. No point trying to extrapolate the results of this small bypoll to a real election where the entire top rung of the BJP will be campaigning.

As for the bypoll, the BJP-SS brought up a 46% vote share. When there is a real election, that vote share will go beyond 50% and it will be irrelevant who is what alliance.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by KL Dubey »

The next assembly election is in KA (May 2023). It looks like a tough campaign ahead for BJP.

The Vijay Sankalp Yatra seems a good idea, touring all 224 constituencies.

https://www.newindianexpress.com/states ... 51665.html
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by fanne »

MH my echo chamber looks easy for BJP. I hope the BMC election happens soon and gives us the information on which way wind is blowing. It is wrong to be drunk on your own Kool aid (or assumption). It is a big state with potential for BJP and allies to be at 40+ in LS. It would be very bad to be rudely surprised here.
By poll wins by ruling government has never been a good yard stick to measure its popularity. On many occasions the ruling party has won bypolls just a year before general assembly elections and lost the GAE.
However, ruling party losing bypolls is not a good sign and may show underlying issues. Jharkhand govt is unpopular and will lose the next LS poll, as Ramgadh by election result shows. Does losing this Pune seat show the same for BJP combine in MH? To dismiss this will be short sighted. The take away is not that BJP will lose only, but what is going on and from here what can be done to make sure results of Maha are as per expectation.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Sumeet »

Totally agree with you Fanne.

This like saying just because Kejriwal wins from so comprehensively from Delhi so Delhi Lok Sabha will also go to Kejriwal instead of PM Modi
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Aditya_V »

When its comes to Elections its absolute Triumphilism vs total gloom and doom scenarios, we must find a middle ground somewhere here.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by nachiket »

vijayk wrote:Maharastra is a big concern.
1. Media strategy failing?
2. Marathi media has become toxic especially after the MVA Govt.
Marathi media is completely sold out to Pawarful people and their agents (Raut). Has been for a while now. There isn't even a pretense of being neutral.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by sajo »

vijayk wrote:https://twitter.com/Shail_CFO/status/16 ... 1888344066

Can anyone from Pune comment?
So BJP lost Kasba seat in Pune while won one in PCMC. Pune voters have shown a lot of maturity in rejecting pervert strategy if BJP whereby they look at Pune only as a vote gathering slave town. Votes and taxes from Pune. Schemes and ravdi elsewhere. 1/n
....................
Any outsider when visit Pune the first impression is people residing are not proud of their city. Haphazard planning, traffic nightmare, poor public transport, airport, banners, encroachment. Those cantonments in city are face savers.
As a long time resident, I grudgingly agree. Pune always had a Hindu Nationalist tilt right from the pre-Independence era, and at one point we had all 7 MLAs, the PMC and the MP all from BJP. Did that translate into any improvement on the ground ? Nope! Not at all. Some improvements were occasionally seen in the eastern parts where Pawarful proxies were building up townships, but west Pune is just plain ignored. Even during Peak covid the common folks were helped by volunteers and RSS but the visible BJP faces had all but disappeared. The city is a heap of dirt, debris, mismanagement and just plain abandonment, and no, these are not growth pangs. A trip to Kochi made me realise how accepted-as-a-fact-of-life we had taken all the dirt and civic mismanagement here.
The BJP-Shinde Sena seems to be lacking a cohesive outreach strategy. The caste factors holding the MVA voter-base together will be unlikely to be swayed by a larger Hindu Nationalism movement, so that card is out. Also the overall sentiment is that Hindu Nationalism is doing diddly squat for visible improvements on the ground here, unlike say, Mumbai.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by chetak »

jehadi didi has made her stand clear "for the time being".

this is also bound to have an effect in some of the state ghatbandhans too

she, most certainly, has PM ambitions of her own and her stance will certainly affect others who are hoping for her "outside" support.

like naidu, onion merchants, nitishwa, and KCR, mumtaz bano can, at best, hope to become one of the king makers

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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by KL Dubey »

Folks -

The mods have created a separate thread on "road to 2024 election". Perhaps the discussion on MH run up to 2024, MoMo didi plans for 2024, etc should continue there.

How about sticking to 2023 assembly elections in this thread ? I started discussion on KA recently.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Kati »

Jihadi didi is peeved by her party's loss in Sagardighi constituency by-election. Yesterday she claimed that she won't join any anti-BJP ghatbandhan, and wants to go solo. This has alarmed the opposition to some extent (going by the CPM party organ Ganashakti).

Jihadi didi and her good for nothing nephew are under tremendous pressure from CBI and ED as a large chunk of TMC mid-level leaders and agents have been arrested by the central agencies for rampant corruption and money laundering. In Tripura and Meghalaya TMC fielded a large number of candidates, and IMHO it is to help BJP indirectly by siphoning off anti-BJP votes (particularly in Tripura where it took barely 1% vote) and thus bringing BJP back to power. The deciding margins in several seats in Tripura are so slim that 1% can make a big difference. My theory will be proven correct if the central agencies give her a slack in coming days.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by KL Dubey »

Aditya_V wrote:When its comes to Elections its absolute Triumphilism vs total gloom and doom scenarios, we must find a middle ground somewhere here.
I agree there are gloom and doom scenarios (which is fine to an extent till it becomes a drone/spam), but I don't see any "triumphalism" here.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by KL Dubey »

fanne wrote:MH my echo chamber looks easy for BJP. I hope the BMC election happens soon and gives us the information on which way wind is blowing. It is wrong to be drunk on your own Kool aid (or assumption). It is a big state with potential for BJP and allies to be at 40+ in LS. It would be very bad to be rudely surprised here.
By poll wins by ruling government has never been a good yard stick to measure its popularity. On many occasions the ruling party has won bypolls just a year before general assembly elections and lost the GAE.
However, ruling party losing bypolls is not a good sign and may show underlying issues. Jharkhand govt is unpopular and will lose the next LS poll, as Ramgadh by election result shows. Does losing this Pune seat show the same for BJP combine in MH? To dismiss this will be short sighted. The take away is not that BJP will lose only, but what is going on and from here what can be done to make sure results of Maha are as per expectation.
Good post, I will reply later in the "road to 2024" thread. Hope the participants continue there.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by chetak »

X posted from the Internal security thread



some of the active BIF players in TN

similar networks exist in other states as well



asymmetric warfare: the history and anatomy of the TN agitations

the players, FCRA incoming, and the puppet masters behind them


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fog6WoDueg&t=3s


Proxy war on Tamil Nadu?






Large-scale protests, seemingly spontaneous, have hit Tamil Nadu for the past few years. The Lede decodes who is funding these protests to destabilise the state
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Ashokk »

Swiss envoy summoned over anti-India posters at UN office in Geneva
NEW DELHI: The ministry of external affairs (MEA) called in the Swiss ambassador and raised the issue of "unfounded and malicious" anti-India posters in front of the United Nations office in Geneva, official sources said. In his response, the ambassador said that he would convey India's concerns to Berne with all the seriousness it deserves.

The posters in Geneva are part of space provided to all, but in no way endorses the claims, nor reflects the position of the Swiss government, he said, according to Indian government sources.
Several posters alleging harassment of minorities and women were put up at a square outside the UN building in Geneva coinciding with a session of the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC).

Shocking & This is the projection of India ,in Geneva https://t.co/7m3UdemPaR
— Dr. Sunita Yadav, M.S. (@DrSunitaYOnco) 1677996082000

"The embassy has conveyed India's concerns to Berne with all the seriousness it deserves," Ralf Heckner said in a brief statement.
It is learnt that similar posters were put up in the past as well during sessions of the UNHRC. A purported video of the posters in front of the UN building was also circulating on social media.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by chetak »

state of affairs between the congis and jehadi didi

Both want to lead the coalition to take on Modi but .......


None of the other parties are ready to align with these two cry babies and hopefully make inroads in any of the coming state elections preparatory to storming the bastion in dilli



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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by chetak »

x posted from the 2024 elections thread

This is a manna from heaven for the BJP's state and general elections campaigns.

Couldn't have given Modi a better gift....

behana's future may have just gone up in smoke, just as is the case with भैया, पतिदेव, एंड माफिया रानी urf परम पूज्य माता देवी


financially creative family, the voodoras.....

did pappu forget to mention beloved behana and her FATF bestowed honours in his cambridge harangues and falsified fulminations.

FATF flags Gandhi family corruption: I&B Minister Anurag Thakur


https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... r-8495082/

While FATF mentions no names, calling the accused ‘Mr A,’ Information & Broadcasting Minister Anurag Thakur cited the report to say it was a matter of “great shame” that the “story of Gandhi family’s corruption” is part of the FATF report.

Incidentally, the ED had alleged that Kapoor purchased a painting from Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi.

The report neither names Rana Kapoor, nor Gandhi, nor Yes Bank, but its details match the Kapoor case.

“Mr. A purchased mediocre art from politicians and in turn paid huge kickbacks through banking channels, projecting them as genuine pieces of art,” the report says. “In one such incident, Mr. A purchased a piece of art from the close relative of a member of the ruling political party at that time for USD 264 000. However, the investigation revealed that this was an over-valuation, and that that the price paid was not for art, but rather was a bribe to influence the awarding of the prestigious Indian award ‘Padma Bhushan’ for himself. The trial is ongoing and Mr. A has been in judicial custody since March 2020,” the report says.

Kapoor was arrested by ED in March 2020. He also told the ED, the agency claimed, that he was told by the then Petroleum Minister Murli Deora that the refusal to buy the M F Husain painting will not only prevent him from building a relationship with the Gandhi family but also prevent him from getting the Padma Bhushan.

Kapoor’s lawyer was not available for comment.

“A money laundering investigation revealed that Mr. A used his influence to sanction the loan to a loss incurring entity, Company B. Investigations further revealed that Company B diverted the loan to 79 shell companies including Company C, which was controlled and owned by Mr. A and his daughters. Company C received USD 79 million and used part of the funds to purchase assets including art from famous painters and influential people. Mr. A invested a significant amount of proceeds in buying art of famous artists. Investigations revealed that he had purchased around 44 paintings,” the report added.

Indeed, the ED has alleged that Rana Kapoor and Dewan Housing Finance Limited (DHFL) promoters Kapil and Dheeraj Wadhawan had siphoned off funds worth Rs 5,050 crore through suspicious transactions using a host of shell companies. The agency had also made a mention of purchase of 44 paintings by Rana Kapoor.

In March 2020, Congress leader Abhishek Manu Singhvi had said that in 2010, an M.F. Hussain painting (which is a portrait) of Rajiv Gandhi was sold to Rana Kapoor for a sum of Rs 2 crore.

“The entire amount was received in cheque and was fully disclosed in Income Tax return of 2010 by Smt. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. Incidentally, only the other week, a painting of M.F. Hussain has been sold by ED and has fetched a price of Rs 13.44 CR. So stop diverting Mr. PM & FM, answer how did the loan book of Yes Bank rise by 2 lakh crore and was Govt. sleeping or complicit?” Singhvi had then said.

FATF "case study"


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chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 32278
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by chetak »

Particularly bad times for pappu and pappi

one caught for the grab of the art and the other for the art of the g(r)ab


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