Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

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Sachin
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Sachin »

^^^ Take a guess on who appointed Shafi Sadi as the Waqf Board head? The BJP :lol:. I saw some "seculars" are saying that this fellow is making such outrageous demands to just to needle Congress. No way Congress will heed to this demand. BTW, the same Waqf Board chairman was silent in the hijab issue.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by ricky_v »

well, the postmortem of the defeat will continue for some time, hopefully the bjp gets the right report on the lacunae and acts in a timely manner for the ge

looking at the upcoming elections, we have rj, mp and cg in fray; shockingly, there is very little news in the national media for these regions barring the odd extremist violence in rj and mp... sometimes

on rj, found this weird article from the stables of the indian express, the editorial team must have been slacking off

https://indianexpress.com/article/polit ... t-8534466/

dated april 23
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s Rajasthan unit Sunday declared seven-term MLA Rajendra Rathore as the Leader of the Opposition (LoP) and ex-state party president Satish Poonia as the Deputy LoP in the Assembly.

Given his background and long experience, Rathore, who had been the Deputy LoP until now, seemed to be the strongest candidate for the post. As a seven-term MLA and former minister, he brings immense experience to the LoP’s position.

In the House, Rathore is known to corner the government with well-researched, point-by-point data besides his significant knowledge of rules, laws, court rulings, etc.
Earlier, when Kataria as LoP made impassioned speeches on a subject, Rathore complemented them with his data and his frequent quips. He commands such authority in this regard that at times the ruling party is not able to detect his “cherry-picking” of data and facts until later.

In December, Rathore had filed a PIL on the Congress MLAs’ resignations, arguing that the people of Rajasthan “are in a state of confusion whether presently they are governed by a government which is validly placed or not”. He also argued that, “The strength (of the Assembly) has come down to 109 since 91 MLAs have resigned. So what is the status of this government?”

This was not the only time Rathore, a Rajput leader, had put the government on the back foot. In March, he personally investigated Gurukul University in Sikar, after its Bill was tabled in February. Rathore found that the university existed merely on paper and that the touted “state-of-the-art campus” was nowhere to be found.

Meanwhile, despite being a first-time MLA Satish Poonia needed to be adjusted somewhere in the BJP power structure following his removal as the state party chief recently. He was the first person from the Jat community to occupy that post and a section of Jats had protested his removal. So, the party named him the Deputy LoP, an honorary post which is not even officially recognised by the Rajasthan Assembly. Also, not many sittings of the House are left before the state goes to polls due in December.


The BJP leadership had replaced Poonia with party MP Chandra Prakash Joshi, a Brahmin leader, as the state party president. Subsequently, by picking Rathore as the LoP, and Poonia as his deputy the party has thus sought to ensure representation to three major castes — Brahmins, Rajputs and Jats — to its top leadership positions in the state ahead of the high-stakes polls.
. As for religion, Rajasthan's residents are mainly Hindus, who account for 88.49% of the population. Muslims make up 9.07%, Sikhs 1.27% and Jains 0.91% of the population.[79]

12.5% of the state are Brahmins.[82] According to a report by Moneycontrol.com at the time of 2018 Rajasthan Legislative Assembly election, the Scheduled Caste (SC) population was 18%, Scheduled Tribe (ST) was 13%, Jats 12%, Gurjars and Rajputs 9% each, Brahmins and Meenas 7% each.[83]

200 seats: upa - 121, nda - 70, there is massive agitation by sachin pilot against his own cm, ashok gehlot, he even took out a 5-day foot march to pressurise the govt on anti-corruption issues, he has been openly castigating his own party, something which the high command will not take kindly to, the bjp should be able to get back into power, high unemployment rate, lack of willingness to prosecute corruption, ml appeasement should be factored by the bjp, vasundra raje is the current national vp of the bjp, similar to raman singh, whose cg also goes to the polls at the same time, dont know if she will come back to state if they do win power
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by vijayk »

I have a feeling that Sachin Pilot is doing this to fool BJP. In the end, CON party will make him CM candidate. BJP will be caught napping because that idiotic lady Vasundhara Raje has ben hobnobbing with CON party and not giving any chance to revamp BJP state unit
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by chetak »

Sachin wrote:^^^ Take a guess on who appointed Shafi Sadi as the Waqf Board head? The BJP :lol:. I saw some "seculars" are saying that this fellow is making such outrageous demands to just to needle Congress. No way Congress will heed to this demand. BTW, the same Waqf Board chairman was silent in the hijab issue.

Image

this ugly truth will be a reality check for the congis because it will light a fire under the jehadis and get them to forcefully take up such a demand, as their "right" as well as their "reward" for their support...

these guys have been openly transactional for tens of centuries now, and it is second nature to them being embedded in their culture
Last edited by chetak on 15 May 2023 17:47, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by ricky_v »

vijayk wrote:..
well, he plays judas most convincingly then... and most gleefully as well

vote share in 2018 - inc 39.3, bjp - 38.77
vote share in 2013 - inc 33.1, bjp - 45.2

both time they contested under raje, since 2018 though, she has not been the lop or state president, hopefully she is kept at the center for party affairs and does not meddle too much in tickets etc (too long an ask i suppose)

also, do you think that there is a movement to revamp the party at the state level? rj is in the league of 1term rule states, would this necessitate revamping? or is there ineffective action by the party in the state to require such actions?
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Ambar »

madhu wrote:
Ambar wrote:
They were shouting "Asif Sait Zindabad", need to be careful how some of these incidents are shared in Social Media, BJP gets the blame as is for communalizing politics, this is the same with Bhatkal flag incident where two edited videos are making rounds.
i doubt. if it was simple shouting "Asif Sait Zindabad" why will police guy goes to the crowd and asks to repeat it louder as he wants to hear clearly? don't know how to uplaod only video so posting a youtube link of rightwing guy.
If you listen to the video you can hear them say "Asif Sait Zaindabad", the cop who shot the video now says he is not sure if the crowd was shouting "Raju Sait/Asif Sait Zindabad" or "Pakistan Zindabad".

There lies another lesson for BJP, the hindu-muslim card does not work in parts of Karnataka where the hindus are not (yet) under direct threat from shantidoots. Only places with a long history of jihadism and communal violence like the coastal Karnataka, Hubli and Shivamogga can one play hindutva as the primary card, in all other places caste, development and absence of visible corruption is what matters. In fact in many urban areas with BJP's core middle class voters, playing "vote for us else shantidoots will come get you" can have a counter effect.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by chetak »

ricky_v wrote:well, he plays judas most convincingly then... and most gleefully as well

vote share in 2018 - inc 39.3, bjp - 38.77
vote share in 2013 - inc 33.1, bjp - 45.2

both time they contested under raje, since 2018 though, she has not been the lop or state president, hopefully she is kept at the center for party affairs and does not meddle too much in tickets etc (too long an ask i suppose)

also, do you think that there is a movement to revamp the party at the state level? rj is in the league of 1term rule states, would this necessitate revamping? or is there ineffective action by the party in the state to require such actions?
any election without auntie as the chosen and guaranteed CM candidate will be badly lost by the BJP

If they leave her out, she will not only split the party and win but she will also align covertly with the congis to sink the BJP.

This is a second KAR (with some caveats) waiting to happen, if needlessly triggered by the BJP
Last edited by chetak on 15 May 2023 17:53, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Ambar »

ricky_v wrote:
vijayk wrote:..
well, he plays judas most convincingly then... and most gleefully as well

vote share in 2018 - inc 39.3, bjp - 38.77
vote share in 2013 - inc 33.1, bjp - 45.2

both time they contested under raje, since 2018 though, she has not been the lop or state president, hopefully she is kept at the center for party affairs and does not meddle too much in tickets etc (too long an ask i suppose)

also, do you think that there is a movement to revamp the party at the state level? rj is in the league of 1term rule states, would this necessitate revamping? or is there ineffective action by the party in the state to require such actions?
She (Raje) apparently stopped Amit Shah from attempting to do in RJ what he did in MP and KAR, if so then she may have unwittingly done the party a favor. It is increasingly becoming clear that it is perhaps best to let Congress deal with anti-incumbency than engineer a split, take over their mandate midway into a term and then bear the brunt of public reaction the next elections.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by ricky_v »

chetak wrote:any election without auntie as the chosen and guaranteed CM candidate will be badly lost by the BJP
so if it is under raje, they may lose like in 2018, but if not under raje, then they'll definitely lose, wholesome choices all round, hopefully they know by now on how to fight and win / not lose (after 4 terms under her leadership)
Ambar wrote:
She (Raje) apparently stopped Amit Shah from attempting to do in RJ what he did in MP and KAR, if so then she may have unwittingly done the party a favor. It is increasingly becoming clear that it is perhaps best to let Congress deal with anti-incumbency than engineer a split, take over their mandate midway into a term and then bear the brunt of public reaction the next elections.
speaking of, how do you then view the chances of mh and mp purely on the above parameters? mp is up on the block as well, mamaji lost after 3 terms, incorporated scindia and got his 4th term, whats the assessment there?
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by SRajesh »

Rickyv Ji
What then is the option??
1. MP: Mamaji upped to Centre and give the command to J Scindia. In my view that is the best option. He is young Charismatic and has the royalty tag which kind of helps in the Cowbelt. (also may help to get Bhua to sit out RJ)
2. Rajavardhar Rathore : again Young, charismatic, Army background(which helps in certain states) Is he a Rajput and if he is that will help immensely. having said that we need a Jat/Brahmin DCM to balance the act.
3. Raman Singh for CG or who??
4. Jharkhand ?? Jayant Sinha IIT Grad MD experience at corporate level
BJP needs to build local second rungs leaders. Three of the above have been Central minister and have admin experience
If they can get Meira Kumar to join BJP that would be big catch for Bihar She ticks all the box's She along with S Modi
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Ambar »

ricky_v wrote:
chetak wrote:any election without auntie as the chosen and guaranteed CM candidate will be badly lost by the BJP
so if it is under raje, they may lose like in 2018, but if not under raje, then they'll definitely lose, wholesome choices all round, hopefully they know by now on how to fight and win / not lose (after 4 terms under her leadership)
Ambar wrote:
She (Raje) apparently stopped Amit Shah from attempting to do in RJ what he did in MP and KAR, if so then she may have unwittingly done the party a favor. It is increasingly becoming clear that it is perhaps best to let Congress deal with anti-incumbency than engineer a split, take over their mandate midway into a term and then bear the brunt of public reaction the next elections.
speaking of, how do you then view the chances of mh and mp purely on the above parameters? mp is up on the block as well, mamaji lost after 3 terms, incorporated scindia and got his 4th term, whats the assessment there?
MP will be a two way contest, BJP always struggles in a straight two way battle especially with the baggage of anti-incumbency. Also remember that Shivraj Singh Chauhan lost last time around too and could only come back to power because of INC's infighting, he has no new cards this time and a no clear successor.

In all this noise about BJP's defeat in Karnataka assembly, we are forgetting how similar the electoral results were to that in Chhattisgarh in 2018. In Chhattisgarh the party was in power for 15 years, the final term of Raman Singh was saddled with infighting, allegations of rampant corruption and government apathy, all too similar to Karnataka. BJP got decimated in the assembly elections because the Ajit Jogi faction cut into BJP's vote share and not INC's, somewhat similar to what happened with JDS this time. Bhpesh Bhagel remains popular in Chhattisgarh and i see him winning again this time.

Scindia maybe a royal but he is not popular outside of Chambal. The Malwa belt and Eastern MP with tribal population has never been pro-BJP, so INC does well in those regions always.Trouble for INC in MP is that they only have two dinosaurs - Kamalnath and Digvijay Singh but its not like BJP is spoilt for options either. And seeing how we are in May 2023 and BJP still does not have a clear CM face in MP, it looks like they'll be going into the polls with Modi doing the campaigning. Two options that BJP has are Narotham Mishra and Narendra Singh Tomar, the former is a motormouth and the later has zero mass appeal.

Chhattisgarh - No clear sign on who BJP's candidate will be. I don't see Raman Singh leading the fight again.

Jharkhand - The less said the better. The fragmented BJP there makes Karnataka's infamous four factions look like kindergarten stuff.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by ricky_v »

Rsatchi wrote:Rickyv Ji
What then is the option??
1. MP: Mamaji upped to Centre and give the command to J Scindia. In my view that is the best option. He is young Charismatic and has the royalty tag which kind of helps in the Cowbelt. (also may help to get Bhua to sit out RJ)
mamaji should have been shunted to the center after 2018, but since the party regained power, he has completed one further term, hopefully strengthening the party position in both mp and cg, his and scindia's combined base should help the party

for scindia, we have to remember that the region of west mp, east gj, and south east rj is the original home of bjp politics, the combinations here were exported to everywhere else and is in a sense it is the bjp laboratory; scindia should be in center for another term, he has been alright at the civil aviation focusing on the regional connectivity, and come to state after, some other long time bjp worker should be rewarded, but to stave off scindia, it is possible that mamaji would continue
2. Rajavardhar Rathore : again Young, charismatic, Army background(which helps in certain states) Is he a Rajput and if he is that will help immensely. having said that we need a Jat/Brahmin DCM to balance the act.
i dont think that he has the ground connection / base pan state yet, he has spent all his political stint at the center, and in central ministries, plus he would face serious challenges from old timers
3. Raman Singh for CG or who??
this is a tricksy one, raman singh completed 3 terms and then crashed and burned spectacularly in the 4th, that said, inc's bhupesh baghel and ts deo are like the gehlot, pilot of cg, and have been publicly bickering since long; anyway, raman singh is now the party's national vp, so he might stay away from returning to power, the current lop would be the obvious choice
4. Jharkhand ?? Jayant Sinha IIT Grad MD experience at corporate level
nah, he has no ground connection, he was parachuted into hazaribagh as a replacement to his father, since his high profile first central stint, he has been very low profile, maybe he is building the party in jh but i doubt it. Jh though being very similar to bh has a large concentration of tribals, it will be someone from this community to be nominated, will also help project pro-tribal nature across india and is several key areas in many states
If they can get Meira Kumar to join BJP that would be big catch for Bihar She ticks all the box's She along with S Modi
meira kumar, i dont know whether she would be comfortable with the bjp's philosophy
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by ricky_v »

Ambar wrote: MP will be a two way contest, BJP always struggles in a straight two way battle especially with the baggage of anti-incumbency. BJP got decimated in the assembly elections because the Ajit Jogi faction cut into BJP's vote share and not INC's, somewhat similar to what happened with JDS this time. Bhpesh Bhagel remains popular in Chhattisgarh and i see him winning again this time.

Scindia maybe a royal but he is not popular outside of Chambal. The Malwa belt and Eastern MP with tribal population has never been pro-BJP, so INC does well in those regions always.Trouble for INC in MP is that they only have two dinosaurs - Kamalnath and Digvijay Singh but its not like BJP is spoilt for options either. And seeing how we are in May 2023 and BJP still does not have a clear CM face in MP, it looks like they'll be going into the polls with Modi doing the campaigning. Two options that BJP has are Narotham Mishra and Narendra Singh Tomar, the former is a motormouth and the later has zero mass appeal.

Chhattisgarh - No clear sign on who BJP's candidate will be. I don't see Raman Singh leading the fight again.

Jharkhand - The less said the better. The fragmented BJP there makes Karnataka's infamous four factions look like kindergarten stuff.
i agree with all the points in this post, though on cg, i would say that infighting between deo and baghel may harm the inc; jogi is now no more, so there is some respite on that front.

narottam mishra might appeal to the "strict to action" rising appreciators in the country / state, narendar tomar, as i recall was termed as bahubali of his region, he has been in center since 14
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Hriday »

Image

I thought if JDS vote shifted to Congress then future elections will be difficult for BJP. But in Twitter I saw a contradictory information. Can anybody comment on it ?
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Dilbu »

This is the Kerala model of keeping BJP out. Every other opposition party will transfer votes to the most winnable candidate from any non-BJP party in each constituency. CPM will transfer vote to Muslim League, congress will transfer to CPM, SDPI will transfer to CPM.. the idea is to defeat BJP at any cost. Later there will be agreement on unofficial adjustments, power sharing arrangements and offer of political protection among these parties after the election.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by vijayk »

https://twitter.com/iAnkurSingh/status/ ... 0838022145
Ankur Singh @iAnkurSingh
Pilot vs Gehlot fight has now started to look like Good Cop-Bad Cop fixed match.

Congress is in very bad condition in Rajasthan right now, will get wiped out in elections. Is this why Congress is allowing the fight so that Pilot's protest controls anger against Gehlot?

BJP shld project both are together and campaign hard against both.
Dramas like this and Jats vs BJP .. PAPPU's team is planning ahead with all tricks.
Hope BJP and People don't fall for this
Piyush Khandelwal @piyush1062
Exactly. Congress is getting smarter and sinister. 2024 is the matter of existence for Congress. They just want to disrupt the game and end India story. SP is creating a non existent issue of corruption in Raj, it will create negativity around the BJP and split the anti Congress votes. Gehlot is no fool that he couldn't tame this guy. No Yatra of such nature can take place without the blessings of the CM in any state
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Ambar »

Hriday wrote:
I thought if JDS vote shifted to Congress then future elections will be difficult for BJP. But in Twitter I saw a contradictory information. Can anybody comment on it ?
There's no data which can tell what % of JDS votes shifted to INC Vs BJP, but a cursory look at several high profile seats should tell you that JDS votes moved to INC and not BJP, and in turn INC stayed out of few seats to help JDS. Hassan with HS Swaroop from JDS defeating the mercurial and very capable Preetham Gowda from BJP thanks to INC staying out, JDS staying out of Chickamagalur to help INC defeat BJP heavy weight CT Ravi, JDS playing bridesmaid in several Tumkur seats where they have a good foundation all goes to show that JDS had an understanding with INC pre-election, but also JDS was counting on INC getting around 90 seats so they (JDS) can once again be the kingmakers.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by chetak »

Image


https://www.news18.com/india/uttarakhan ... 23773.html

The Pushkar Singh Dhami-led Uttarakhand government has cracked a whip against the illegal construction of Mazars (mausoleums) and similar religious structures.

In what could be termed as a ‘mega clean up’ operation against illegal religious activities particularly in the forest area, the administration has razed more than 330 Mazars in the last 90 days.

Backed by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the ideological mentor of the BJP, this demolition drive gained momentum after intelligence input suggested a sudden rise in ‘religious encroachments’ in ‘Devbhoomi’ - as Uttarakhand is referred to owing to numerous pilgrimage places.

“The drive against encroachments will continue in the Devbhoomi. We won’t tolerate land jihad to happen in Uttarakhand," CM Dhami said.

Earlier in the day, the Corbett tiger reserve administration demolished nine Mazars located inside the deep forest.

Although human activity other than restricted safaris is not permitted inside the tiger reserves. However, in the case of Corbett tiger reserve, there was free access to Mazars located inside the reserved forest area.

“Acting on the government instructions, we have taken stringent steps against illegal encroachments. A week back we served notices to those associated with the Mazars but none responded and as a result demolition drive took place" told Dhiraj Pande director of Corbett tiger reserve to News18.com.

Nonetheless, in the last three months more than 325 mazars have been demolished across the state and in the process around 91 hectares of the forest land have been freed, said the official.

“I am asking divisional forest officers to plant fruit saplings in the land now free from encroachments," said Parag Madhukar Dhakate, IFS
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by madhu »

Ambar wrote:
Hriday wrote:
I thought if JDS vote shifted to Congress then future elections will be difficult for BJP. But in Twitter I saw a contradictory information. Can anybody comment on it ?
There's no data which can tell what % of JDS votes shifted to INC Vs BJP, but a cursory look at several high profile seats should tell you that JDS votes moved to INC and not BJP, and in turn INC stayed out of few seats to help JDS.
Amberji the logic of vote transfer is based on drop in vote share.
In the 2018 elections, the Congress garnered a vote share of 38.04 per cent, followed by the BJP (36.22 per cent) and the JD(S) with 18.36 per cent.
Today in 2023 Congress' vote share zoomed to 42.88 per cent; that of JD(S) dropped to 13.29 per cent. BJP's vote share was 36 per cent.
The drop of 5% vote share tallies with increase of 5% vote share of Congress.

Traditionally, the Janata Dal (S) party has enjoyed strong support from Muslim voters in the Old Mysuru region, which has an 11% Muslim population. However, this time, the Muslim vote bank consolidated in favour of the Congress party.

The Muslim vote mattered in around 65 of the 224 constituencies in the state, and an analysis of the election data showed that the Congress party was able to win almost half of the 65 assembly seats where Muslims matter. Of the 15 Muslim candidates fielded by the Congress, nine won, while none of the 22 fielded by the JDS were successful. In 2018, five of the seven Muslim candidates who won were from the Congress, while two were from the JDS.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Atmavik »

Looks like Money bag DK is throwing in the towel for the cm post. Sidda might be the cm again
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by kvraghav »

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=J5NrLVLKv ... e=youtu.be
Roughly translates to won't pay electricity bill because Congress has said no need to. Similar thing is happening in buses with ladies is what I have heard. Ladies questioning bus conductors when asked for fares.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by chetak »

Image
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Vips »

Cong leadership reneged on its promise: Karnataka party chief DK Shivakumar.

With the Congress central leadership likely to pick Siddaramaiah as the Karnataka chief minister, the party’s state unit chief D K Shivakumar on Monday cancelled his Delhi visit, conveying to the party leadership that he was upset that they reneged on the promises made to him and sent his “best wishes” to his rival.

Siddramaiah landed in Delhi earlier in the day, but Shivakumar deferred his visit, attributing the delay in reaching Delhi to his birthday celebrations. By evening, Shivakumar cancelled his Delhi visit, stating that he had an upset stomach. “I have some problem in my stomach. A doctor is coming in ten minutes. It’s burning. It looks like some infection, and I have fever... please let me be free…” Shivakumar told reporters.

Later, he told a private news channel that he felt betrayed. “Sonia Gandhi told me, ‘I have confidence in you that you will deliver Karnataka’. I am sitting here, doing my regular responsibility. You should have the basic courtesy, a bit of gratitude. :rotfl: They should have the courtesy to acknowledge who is behind the win,” he told NDTV.

In Delhi, party leaders wracked their brains at Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge’s residence, trying to work out a way to appease Shivakumar, considered by many in the party to have been instrumental in its dominant performance in the Old Mysuru region.

Amid speculations about the number of MLAs supporting him and Siddaramaiah for the CM’s post, Shivakumar said earlier on Monday that his strength is 135, as under his presidency, the party won these numbers of Assembly segments.

According to another camp in the Congress, at least 80 of the MLAs supported Siddaramaiah’s leadership when the party’s central observers took their view on Sunday. The Congress Legislature Party (CLP) meeting in Bengaluru on Sunday later authorised the party president to decide on the CM nominee.

Shivakumar rejected questions about indulging in bargaining but suggested he should get his due for keeping the party together during a tough time. “A single man with courage makes a majority, and I have proved it. I don’t want to disclose what has happened in the last five years,” he told reporters. “When our MLAs left the party, I did not lose heart and took the responsibility with courage. Mallikarjun Kharge is the senior leader and Sonia and Rahul Gandhi have confidence in us. We will leave the matter to them,” he said.

Party sources said they were working out a compromise formula, including allocation of portfolios, such as revenue, irrigation and public works department.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by vijayk »

Looks like most of the K'taka infighting is between RSS B.L.Santosh and Yeddurappa. In spite of the loss, there has been no consequence for Santosh.

Chattisgarh seems to be safe for CON party
MP is also dicey with bad news for Chauhan.

BJP needs to get its act straightened. Lot of backstabbing went on in HP also. I hope they get this proper attention. Nadda seems to be disaster
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by VenkataS »

There should be accountability for the loss and the missteps. Too much is riding on 2024 for this defeat to be not taken seriously.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Deans »

vijayk wrote:Looks like most of the K'taka infighting is between RSS B.L.Santosh and Yeddurappa. In spite of the loss, there has been no consequence for Santosh.

Chattisgarh seems to be safe for CON party
MP is also dicey with bad news for Chauhan.

BJP needs to get its act straightened. Lot of backstabbing went on in HP also. I hope they get this proper attention. Nadda seems to be disaster
Nadda is from Himachal, where BJP has its biggest even drop in vote share without the central leadership having a clue of what went wrong.
BJP has become like the Cong high command, where votes are sought in the name of 1 central leader. They take decisions on people without knowing the ground reality and do not support strong local leaders.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by SRajesh »

Deansji and Vijayji
We have a saying in Kannada : Bisi Thuppa Nungalooagadu Ugiyaluagadu (translated Hot Ghee diffcult to swallow yet you wont spit it out)
BL Santosh v BSY is similar. No doubt BSY built up the party but bulk of his supporters had become Congified and eating from Gobermint Plate was on Monumental scale.
Now how can NaMo or As with their clean image ticket admit there is rot in the party. Ergo BL Santosh and the proverbial cleaning of stables going on. Yes in the short run it can be disastrous but the party must have kept in mind the long term goal. Speaking to some friends in B'lore corruption was monumental
Now that the Kursi Kusthi is out in the open for Congi's and the poll promises wont be kept BJP has to use that anger in 2024
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by ramana »

ramana wrote:*Looking at the balance of probabilities and facts, it's a good thing that BJP did not win in Karnataka.*

Facts:

BJP image is that of a single group, Lingayat party

BJP had an image of corruption, arrogance, etc.etc

This BJP government is a compromise with the 15 defectors, led by Jakhroli, who got ministries to bring about BSY government. These ministers were quite corrupt.
Then Bommai came to bring a transition from BSY. The corruption increased. Pandemic time it grew wirse.

As elections came, BSY, Jakhroli, and BL Santosh trio were in charge of the campaign and put candidates.

Now, only 66 BJP MLAs won. Some are in the most difficult areas. All those with corruption taint got defeated. 44/46 Lingayats got elected in Congress. BJP is not the Lingayat party anymore.
Corrupt members defeated.
The 66 MLAs are solid BJP.
It's like shedding old clothes or rising like Phoenix.
It's important to do this a year before 2024.

*As for Congress, their issues start now.*
It's like political DeMo for BJP. They have shed a lot of baggage.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Sachin »

Won't backstab or blackmail, says D K Shivakumar before leaving for Delhi amid Karnataka CM suspense
At times his speech is like those made by old mafia dons. Very polished and refined if taken literally, but there is always an element of threat if we may look a bit deeper. It does'nt take much time to say "hey look I literally agreed for every thing, but still they did this to me. Now I will hit back". Jr. Gowdru, Kumaraswamy was a champion in these kinds of actions.

BJP leadership misled with wrong crucial data?
"They were responsible for identifying beneficiaries, organising booth-level meetings and other crucial tasks involving key leaders of the districts, which did not happen. Fudging of crucial reports began from Day One,” the functionary said.
...
While this was brought to the notice of BJP state president Nalin Kumar Kateel, he is said to have brushed it aside saying party workers were "prejudiced", the source said.

Looks like Congress working style is now getting into BJP & RSS as well. Complacent, and false sense of granduer and invicibility. But this report is from a very pro-Congress news paper, so they too may have added a bit of masala.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by vijayk »

https://www.greatandhra.com/politics/in ... aka-129261
Not only Lingayat, BJP lost Dalit & OBC votes too in K'taka


Image
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Ambar »

Rsatchi wrote:Deansji and Vijayji
We have a saying in Kannada : Bisi Thuppa Nungalooagadu Ugiyaluagadu (translated Hot Ghee diffcult to swallow yet you wont spit it out)
BL Santosh v BSY is similar. No doubt BSY built up the party but bulk of his supporters had become Congified and eating from Gobermint Plate was on Monumental scale.
Now how can NaMo or As with their clean image ticket admit there is rot in the party. Ergo BL Santosh and the proverbial cleaning of stables going on. Yes in the short run it can be disastrous but the party must have kept in mind the long term goal. Speaking to some friends in B'lore corruption was monumental
Now that the Kursi Kusthi is out in the open for Congi's and the poll promises wont be kept BJP has to use that anger in 2024
We are once again making the mistake of believing the echo chamber. If BJP intentionally decided to decimate itself in KAR in the name of "cleaning the stables", how is it they had no problems accommodating 19 former JDS and Congress MLAs ? Or the Scindia faction from Congress in MP ? Or the Shinde faction of SS in MH ?

Yes, the KAR government under BJP was monumentally corrupt, i said so in multiple times well for the last two years that the difference between a corrupt Congress MLA and a corrupt BJP MlA is that the later comes across as a glutton stuffing his face straight into the serving bowl, while the former finishes the same portion but in multiple seating. The party has lost to INC at an average vote share of 7.9% per seat, that is huge and if history is any precedence then it is takes multiple elections to clawback such a deficit.

Even if RSS had kept away from meddling with the state, BJP would have been well short of majority but they would have hit 85-90. Atleast 25-30 seats were lost thanks to poor candidate selection. This new strategy of national secretary ignoring general secretaries is self-defeating, you cannot win assembly elections by rolling out Modi and his Landcruiser everywhere. Just because it worked in UP in 2017 doesn't mean that it works everywhere, even UP in 2022 was possible because of Yogi's development and not because they brought Modi in for campaigning.

Nadda should have been fired after HP and BL Santhosh confined to his RSS office permanently. But here we are after Karnataka and there is no sign that the party is in a hurry to do course correction. Discounting NE where the regional parties cobble coalition with whoever is in the center, BJP now is in power only in a handful of states. Alarm bells should be going off in the party HQ to introspect instead all we see is negative campaigning.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Sachin »

Noting it here for comic value
Parameshwara throws his hat in ring as race for CM's post hots up
"I have faith in the party high command. I have certain principles. I can also take about 50 legislators and do the shouting, but for me the discipline of the party is important. If people like us don't follow things, there won't be any discipline in the party. I have said that if the high command gives me the responsibility, I will take it up. I have not said I won't.", he said.

This is now becoming more like the comics "Asterix and the Goths", and the character General Elektrik clubbing people to form small units of soldiers.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Aditya_V »

Yes BJP lost the elections, but the vote gap was 7% , some of the talk here isof 15-20 %unmatchable difference. Changes are required but I don't think wholesale BJP bashing, doom and gloom scenarios, off with the head of every one is nessecary. Some meaningful changes so that fencesitters can be convinced must be developed.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by ramana »

Aditya_V wrote:Yes BJP lost the elections, but the vote gap was 7%, some of the talk here is of 15-20 %unmatchable difference. Changes are required but I don't think wholesale BJP bashing, doom and gloom scenarios, off with the head of everyone is necessary. Some meaningful changes so that fence sitters can be convinced must be developed.
You need to let the bile spill over to prevent ulcers.

So let them vent.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by vijayk »

Rsatchi wrote:Deansji and Vijayji
We have a saying in Kannada : Bisi Thuppa Nungalooagadu Ugiyaluagadu (translated Hot Ghee diffcult to swallow yet you wont spit it out)
BL Santosh v BSY is similar. No doubt BSY built up the party but bulk of his supporters had become Congified and eating from Gobermint Plate was on Monumental scale.
Now how can NaMo or As with their clean image ticket admit there is rot in the party. Ergo BL Santosh and the proverbial cleaning of stables going on. Yes in the short run it can be disastrous but the party must have kept in mind the long term goal. Speaking to some friends in B'lore corruption was monumental
Now that the Kursi Kusthi is out in the open for Congi's and the poll promises wont be kept BJP has to use that anger in 2024
Noted. Lets hope they clean out the party
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by chetak »

ramana wrote:
ramana wrote:*Looking at the balance of probabilities and facts, it's a good thing that BJP did not win in Karnataka.*

Facts:

BJP image is that of a single group, Lingayat party

BJP had an image of corruption, arrogance, etc.etc

This BJP government is a compromise with the 15 defectors, led by Jakhroli, who got ministries to bring about BSY government. These ministers were quite corrupt.
Then Bommai came to bring a transition from BSY. The corruption increased. Pandemic time it grew wirse.

As elections came, BSY, Jakhroli, and BL Santosh trio were in charge of the campaign and put candidates.

Now, only 66 BJP MLAs won. Some are in the most difficult areas. All those with corruption taint got defeated. 44/46 Lingayats got elected in Congress. BJP is not the Lingayat party anymore.
Corrupt members defeated.
The 66 MLAs are solid BJP.
It's like shedding old clothes or rising like Phoenix.
It's important to do this a year before 2024.

*As for Congress, their issues start now.*
It's like political DeMo for BJP. They have shed a lot of baggage.

This deep cleaning is the most likely possibility

It is not like the BJP top brass or even the local leadership are novices in fighting the elections.

Obviously, some sort of deep screening/selection may be taking place and they have successfully shed unwanted and also troublesome baggage.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by KL Dubey »

ramana wrote: You need to let the bile spill over to prevent ulcers.

So let them vent.
IMO some venting is OK and maybe even cathartic, but persistent repetition of outright hate speech against hindus as a community is not OK and can't be allowed on BRF.

Looking back at election threads over the years, this "stupidity of hindus/demographic collapse" theme has now taken on the same proportions as the "coming collapse of china". I was part of the "china collapse" threads back in the day, but learned a lesson from that.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by KL Dubey »

Pradeep Singh - as usual - hits the nail on the head regarding the BJP's KA debacle, in three short and incisive segments. Watch them in the order below to get the best out of it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7uOArf1WjzQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZMmdd8NKXI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5GEexfJr2w

The reasons all boil down to discontent with the state leadership and work, not general discontent against the BJP or Modi sarkar. Nowhere does he berate the hindu voters for not countering the "green" vote consolidation.

And he also comments on the immediate infighting within INC. The seeds of instability are already sown. Interesting discussion on Siddaramayya versus "Boss DK":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12koT9JpEOk
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Larry Walker »

if DKS is nominated CM, then Sidda will revolt and jon JDS. If Sidda ia made CM, DKS will quit and join BJP. I prefer the 2nd outcome.
chetak
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by chetak »

Larry Walker wrote:if DKS is nominated CM, then Sidda will revolt and jon JDS. If Sidda ia made CM, DKS will quit and join BJP. I prefer the 2nd outcome.
sidda wiil form a new party to protect his communal vote banks but DKS may have the upper hand with more congi MLAs supporting him

The mafia family need the jihadis hence yhey are pushing for sidda.

pappu and pappi will try and find safe seats from KAR for 2024 and they both need jihadi dominated constituencies

he and the jds leaders are not friends by any stretch of imagination

DKS will give outside support but will not join the BJP.

in all these scenarios, KAR, as a state, will loose, because the looting will continue
Last edited by chetak on 16 May 2023 23:18, edited 1 time in total.
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