Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

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KL Dubey
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by KL Dubey »

jrjrao wrote:Two interesting reads:

The Belt and Road Initiative Runs into Trouble
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/t ... o-trouble/

More Business Shifts from China to India as the Rift between the Countries Widens
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/m ... ies-widens
And a successful start of semiconductor chip manufacturing in India will further "seal the deal" for moving electronics/phones/appliance manufacturing en masse to India. Modi sarkar is playing the economic chess game with great astuteness...and one would expect the Chinese to try their best to thwart Indian manufacturing through the usual routes....NGO protests, physical sabotage, cyberattacks, etc.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by Manish_P »

KL Dubey wrote: ...and one would expect the Chinese to try their best to thwart Indian manufacturing through the usual routes....NGO protests, physical sabotage, cyberattacks, etc.
Amazing how western capitalist initiatives generate income opportunities for indian socialists from the communist paymasters :D
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

Dr Nicola Leveringhaus on Economic aspects of strategic stability between US and China.

https://www.nupi.no/en/content/download ... &version=2
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

X-post...
An article on China's response to two clashes with nuke powers the US and the FSU.
viewtopic.php?p=2568207#p2568207

My takeaway with regard to the 2020 clash with India.
Having read this account of Korea and Ussuri River clashes what lesson can we take with regard to India and China since 2008?
The early salami slicing was to test the Indian response after the IUCNA (2008) to see how India would respond.

The Indian response to Galwan is what re-set the trajectory.
All these commander-level talks are to restore the status quo. And are by nature slow as its a long border.

In the short, Galwan clash and subsequent Kailash ranges takeover is a replay of the Ussuri River clashes.

Just like at the Ussuri River clashes, there was an element of "India fears China" working during Galwan.

India did not make nuke threats but did take the response to the economic front which also hurt China and further escalation would be on a slippery slope.
So both China and India are nuke powers. And kept the incidents at the clashes or skirmishes level. No limited war rhetoric.

What India did was exhibit firm resolve at Galwan and subsequent places like Kailash ranges and kept repeating status quo ante of April 2020 must be maintained.
Along with these steps, India imposed economic measures on China's trade and investments in India. This transferred the pain to mainland China which saw both the Galwan casualties and job losses. In other words escalation at the LAC border has consequences inside China.
In what way? The above article says China backs down when survival is at stake.
But border clashes at LAC how could they affect China's survival?

Here comes the mapping of Communist China as another Chinese Empire and the CPC as another Chinese dynasty.
Looses at LAC would weaken the Mandate of Heaven of the CPC.
XJP in the 19th Congress in 2017 had made CPC the State in a Louis the XIV moment. ""L'Etat c'est a moi": Louis XIV and the State"
So further escalation during the pandemic could weaken the party hold and we see in the 20th Congress the Hun Jintao faction was purged.
Now add US pressure via Quad and Taiwan. All these could bring back memories of COH.

This is the most logical explanation that fits why PRC is agreeing to talks with India.
If this is right then Taiwan, which can affect the CPC's ideological status quo, will be a hot spot.
And in his speech to the 20th Congress XJP referred the most times after Security.
I submit security and Taiwan are both related.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by NRao »

The Quad Shouldn’t Ignore India’s China Concerns
If the Quad is going to move forward, both as a strategic dialogue and perhaps more, it is time that all its members side unequivocally with India.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by chetak »

Image
SSridhar
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by SSridhar »

ramana wrote:The above article says China backs down when survival is at stake.
But border clashes at LAC how could they affect China's survival?

Here comes the mapping of Communist China as another Chinese Empire and the CPC as another Chinese dynasty.
Looses at LAC would weaken the Mandate of Heaven of the CPC.
XJP in the 19th Congress in 2017 had made CPC the State in a Louis the XIV moment. ""L'Etat c'est a moi": Louis XIV and the State"
So further escalation during the pandemic could weaken the party hold and we see in the 20th Congress the Hun Jintao faction was purged.
Yes, that's true.

The trick has always been to interpret the CPC as the Dynasty. Mao was not recognized for what he was, the Emperor. Nations failed to do so. After Mao's monarchy, that mantle of 'Emperor' did not fall on anybody else who succeeded him, until XJP assumed it. Deng and other elders had seen the horrors of Mao and the Gang of Four and therefore devised ways to avoid those situations and guided the party diligently until Uncle Hu's time. Then, things changed in c. 2012. The world looks at China through the Westphalian nation-state prism which it certainly is not. We fitted Panchsheel into the Westphalian framework and came to grief in 1962.

The Chinese losses at Galwan were three times those of India and the surprise move on the Kailash Range took the wind out of PLA's sails. Even a much indebted (to China) Russia leaked the number of Chinese dead in Galwan. One Mainland Chinese participant in the NUS-sponsored webinar immediately after the Galwan incident, questioned as to why his country had not announced its death toll when India had already done so and even respectfully and with full military honors conducted the final rites of its martyred soldiers. For a long time, China did not even acknowledge its 'four' dead. So, it had to make a hero of Galwan partcipate in the ceremonies of the Winter Olympics at Beijing and show a video at the 20th Congress to proclaim the invincibility of PLA and by extension, the CPC.

The CPC has brainwashed Han with the fabricated history that it was CPC that drove away the fascist Japanese from China in 1945.
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 4#p2566504

It claims that it ended the CoH and it is the one standing between China and the deluge. For the Chinese, who had endured a long chaotic period in the 19th century with weak Manchu Emperors, the Republican experiment after c. 1912, and the impotence against the atrocious Japanese in the 30s & 40s, the fabricated historiography is acceptable if CPC could lift them out of poverty etc, which it has done especially after c. 1979. XJP promises an even better lifestyle provided the Chinese can endure some pain in pursuit of his international policies which ha has cleverly tied with the domestic dream.
Now add US pressure via Quad and Taiwan. All these could bring back memories of COH.

This is the most logical explanation that fits why PRC is agreeing to talks with India.
If this is right then Taiwan, which can affect the CPC's ideological status quo, will be a hot spot.
And in his speech to the 20th Congress XJP referred the most times after Security.
I submit security and Taiwan are both related.
Yes to the bolded part and Taiwan is at the core of a few things.

First of all, if China can take Taiwan, either peacefully or militarily, it would be conclusive proof that Pax Americana was once and for all over and Pax Sinica is well & truly established. That is the 'Middle Kingdom' established by the 'Son of Heaven' with the 'Mandate of Heaven'. This is the 3000-year Chinese Dream. Many think that when XJP (and others before him too) frequently refer(s) to Prosperity (fuqiang) by c. 2049, it was just material prosperity. Similarly, 'China Dream' (zhongguo meng) does not just denote freedom from poverty, or being a great military power etc. It means replacing the existing international order with its own and with it being solely at the apex. It also includes re-taking all lost territories or whatever CPC has imagined it has lost. Therefore, the Taiwan issue is inextricably linked with Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh. Later, outer Manchuria and Siberia as well.

Secondly, Taiwan Straits would be the 'choke point' (the only choke-point under Chinese control) with which to control Japan, China's only civilizational enemy. China fears the various choke-points, Malacca, Tsugaru, Tsushima, Luzon, Sunda, Hormuz et al. It has already announced a few months back that the Taiwan Straits was not an international waterway. Such a takeover will control India too. It will lead to re-taking the old Ryukyu which Japan usurped 300 years back from its vassalage through subterfuge in order to overcome its insecurity. That would give China a handle over that 'crooked country', Japan. The Korean Peninsula (Goreyo) would once again come under its control. Okinawa & Guam will be practically gone. China's access to the Pacific will not be hampered like how it is now. Australia will capitulate and go down under. It will also deprive the inimical forces of a handle (a big handle indeed) to beat China with. Barbarians would have been tamed and peace would prevail with Confucius smiling benignly (through XJP, of course) as he sees order being established with humaneness (ren)

Thirdly, China can have access to the semiconductor manufacturing technologies (in the worst case, even partially) which it has been unable to get its hands on so far. The CHIPS Act make China's Taiwan adventure all the more worthwhile. And, of course, all the wealth of a very flourishing Taiwan, one of the few countries with which it has a deficit of trade, a big one at that. Taiwan, in its fold, would nip any potential alternative political system to CPC within Mainland China too.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

Good analysis.
My only concern is could XJP be making tactical feint as Sun Tzu wrote?
" Act in the West while making a move in the East!" Or some such thing?

Be watchful should be the watchword for India.
November is still iffy.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by Kaivalya »

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... in-trudeau

The prime minister’s remarks followed reporting from Global News that Canadian intelligence had concluded Beijing worked to undermine the democratic process in Canada in multiple elections, including votes held in 2019 and 2021.

The Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) briefed the prime minister, as well as senior cabinet ministers, in January about China’s attempts, the report said.
The efforts are believed to include placing agents in the offices of lawmakers to influence policy in China’s favor, as well as attempts to “co-opt and corrupt” former Canadian officials in order to gain political power and influence in the nation’s capital.
According to Global News, CSIS believes the consulate was behind a large financial transaction to at least 11 federal election candidates and Chinese government-affiliated operatives who worked as campaign staffers – C$250,000 (US$185,000) was allegedly transferred through a provincial Ontario lawmaker and the staffer to a federal election candidate.
IMO china wins any way : If these allegations are true, china wins by pointing out how weak democracy is . If these allegations are false, costs of democracy goes up in maintaining these institutions because of the possibility.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by SSridhar »

There is documented evidence of Chinese interference in the elections in Sri Lanka, Maldives and Australia. Oz had to enact laws after it found extensive sabotage of its electoral system by the Chinese. These are 'Measures Other Than War' by China.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

A paper on Chinese incursions.

https://phys.org/news/2022-11-chinese-i ... cally.html
Chinese incursions across India's west and central borders are not independent, random incidents that happen by mistake. Instead, these incursions are part of a strategically planned, coordinated effort in order to gain permanent control of disputed border areas, a new study has found.

Led by Northwestern University, Technical University of Delft in the Netherlands and the Netherlands Defense Academy, the authors assembled a new dataset, compiling information about Chinese incursions into India from 2006 to 2020. Then they used game theory and statistical methods to analyze the data.

The researchers found that conflicts can be separated into two distinct sectors: west/middle (the Aksai Chin region) and east (the Arunachal Pradesh region).
While the researchers learned that the number of incursions are generally increasing over time, they concluded that conflicts in the east and middle sectors are part of a coordinated expansionist strategy.

Image

By pinpointing the exact locations lying at the root of the conflict, the researchers believe deterrents could be established in these specific areas to defuse tensions along the entire border.

The study, "Rising tension in the Himalayas: A geospatial analysis of Chinese border incursions into India," will be published on Nov. 10 in the journal PLOS ONE.

"By studying the number of incursions that occurred in the west and middle sectors over time, it became obvious, statistically, that these incursions are not random," said Northwestern's V.S. Subrahmanian, the study's senior author. "The probability of randomness is very low, which suggests to us that it's a coordinated effort. When we looked at the eastern sector, however, there is much weaker evidence for coordination. Settling border disputes in specific areas could be an important first step in a step-by-step resolution of the entire conflict."

{I had used randomness theory informally and said that the probability of Chinese attacks on LAC is 1.0 which means its definite. However, we don't know where. These scholars by doing mapping and using game theory have narrowed it down to the western segment of LAC or Ladakh. Its possible this is because PRC wants Arunachal Pradesh or Tawang and doesn't want to have the local population upset by using force Or it could be they are poking in Ladakh and trying to induce India to accommodate them in Arunachal? If so then above study is interesting but not useful.

Ref: viewtopic.php?p=2523544#p2523544
Almost a year ago}


A world-renowned expert in AI and security matters, Subrahmanian is the Walter P. Murphy Professor of Computer Science at Northwestern's McCormick School of Engineering and a Buffett Faculty Fellow at Northwestern's Buffett Institute for Global Affairs.

Incursions on the rise

The longest disputed border in the world, the India-China boundary has experienced recurring conflicts since 1962. Incursions tend to occur in two distinct regions: Aksai Chin, a region north of Nepal that is controlled by China but claimed by India, and Arunachal Pradesh, a region east of Bhutan that is controlled by India but claimed by China.

To construct their new dataset, the authors compiled publicly available information about border incursions that were well-documented by international media. For the study, the team defined an "incursion" as any movement of Chinese troops across the border—by foot or in vehicles—into areas that are internationally accepted as India's territory. Then, they plotted each location on a map, identifying 13 hotspots where incursions happen most frequently.

In the 15-year dataset, the researchers noted an average of 7.8 incursions per year. The Indian government's estimates, however, are much higher at 300 per year.


{This means there are on average 300-8= 292 incursions/year on the LAC in areas India considers own territory.}

"Although the Indian government publicizes these numbers, we don't have the details behind them," Subrahmanian said. "They might be counting a series of temporally proximate events as several different incursions, whereas we count them all as part of the same one incursion. But when we plotted our data and their data on a graph, the curves still have the same shape. Both curves show that incursions are increasing—but not steadily. They rise and fall, while still trending upward."

'Keep the pot boiling'

Although hotspots occur throughout Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh, the researchers' game-theory analysis indicates that only the incursions in Aksai Chin are part of a coordinated effort. Building on insights from game theory, the researchers predict that China is trying to establish permanent control over Aksai Chin by allocating more troops for a longer period of time than India.

"China grabs a little bit of territory and then a little bit more until India accepts that it's Chinese territory," Subrahmanian said. "There is a saying: 'Keep the pot boiling but don't let it boil over.' China takes small pieces of land, but keeps it under the threshold of where India would counter-attack. But, over time, it becomes a bigger piece of land."

{This is the old salami slicing tactic that PLA is renowned for. They used the same in 1969 Ussuri River area and did not settle till 2005. The settlement was done when GWB went into West Asia as part of his "War on Terror" and "Axis of Evil" in which North Korea was named. IOW PRC did settle a dispute with Russia when it felt the potential threat near it. Something to note.
Relevant Sun Tzu quotes:
"All warfare is based on deception."

"Hold out baits to entice the enemy. Feign disorder, and crush him."

"Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected."
}


The finding that China is most interested in acquiring Aksai Chin, Subrahmanian says, supports common knowledge.

"Knowing there are more incursions in the western sector is not a surprise," he said. "Aksai Chin is a strategic area that China wants to develop, so it's very critical to them. It's a vital passageway between China and the Chinese autonomous regions of Tibet and Xinjiang."

{I disagree as it ignores Chinese history. The Qing Dynasty introduced Tibetan Buddhism into China as a ruling religion. Tawang is the area for next Dalai Lama the leader of Tibetan Buddhism. So Tawang is another political challenge to CPC dynasty just as Taiwan is due to its republican democracy. Dr Subramanian himself says that GB219 is the road from China to the Chinese autonomous regions of Xinjiang and Tibet which are the periphery of China.}

Finding solutions

In a previous paper (published by Nature Humanities and Social Sciences Communications in 2021), Subrahmanian and his collaborators studied when incursions are most likely to occur. They found that China attacks when it feels most vulnerable.

"We found an uptick in incursions when China is experiencing economic stress, such as low consumer confidence," Subrahmanian said. "We also see upticks when India gets closer to the United States."


{ A Chinese saying goes "Troubles within, troubles without!". Troubles without are when India and US get closer. A neglected aspect of Indian studies of 1962 is the role of US agents in fomenting the Khampa rebellion in Tibet. And Nehru Govt keeping India in the dark about their involvement.}

Now that Subrahmanian and his team understand when and where these incursions occur, they next plan to explore how to address them. The study authors believe military interventions should be a last resort. Instead, they suggest bilateral negotiations, developing early warning systems to predict when incursions might occur or bolstering India's economy in order to challenge China's economic dominance.

"China's robust economy results in increased aggression around the world," Subrahmanian said. "No one wants a war—not just in terms of lives—but in terms of economic ripple effects. It would be an economic tsunami."

{Again ignores history. China wants to come to terms with COH and aggression is one tool. Many overseas Chinese tell me about Indian soldiers in Opium War and opium grown in colonial India. I keep telling them it was under English Company rule and its unfortunate India became a colony. We need to move on and focus on the real cause of demand (addiction in Imperial China and the supplier English East India Company) that used another Asian country (india) to meet the demand.}


More information:
Rising tension in the Himalayas: A geospatial analysis of Chinese border incursions into India, PLoS ONE (2022). DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0274999
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by chetak »

ramana wrote:
{I had used randomness theory casually and said that the probability of Chinese attacks on LAC is 1.0 that means its definite. However we don't know where. These scholars by doing a mapping and using game theory have narrowed it down to the western segment of LAC or Ladakh. Its possible this is because PRC wants Arunachal Pradesh or Tawang and doesn't want to have the local population upset by using force Or it could be they are poking in Ladakh and trying to induce India to accommodate them in Arunachal? If so then above study is interesting but not useful.}
In the area of dispute in ladakh sector there are some rivers, galwan and shyok are two of them, which the hans are very very keen on capturing the land around and controlling the rivers exclusively because they plan to divert the waters back to china and sending the waters to the Xinjian region.

They want to divert water from rivers in Tibetan plateau and link the Yangtze River and Yellow River also back to china. They need to push India far back and take the land beyond even daulet beg oldi because they want as large a buffer zone as they can have around those key Tibet-origin river systems. The plateau is the source of dozens of rivers that flow into china, southeast asia and south asia,

The creation of ladakh as a union territory has panicked and angered them. I think that the Indian authorities well know what is really at stake though very little of it comes into the Indian press.


Also, our own Rohit Vats ji has written some detailed articles well worth reading, though not directly concerning this subject

The main reason for the hans entering ladakh is to ensure ownership, total control, and the diversion of these waters back to china and keep India far away as possible from the tibetian plateau. Roads and Infrastructure built by India in ladakh has really alarmed them.

why the congis did not build roads and infrastructure in ladakh and arunachal pradesh decades ago is not so baffling now. The hans have either paid off some one very high up in the congi leadership or maybe even scared them off under some sort of threat to life.


https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/i ... 2020-06-13
Last edited by chetak on 11 Nov 2022 04:56, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

Only XJP knows why he provoked India in Galwan.

About 6 -8 months after Mammallapuram summit in October 2019.
All explanations are to get to that core fact.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by chetak »

ramana wrote:Only XJP knows why he provoked India in Galwan.
Modi and his team also know.

The strong reaction of the IA is proof of that very important fact

A large chip fab can use up to 10 million gallons of water a day, which is equivalent to the water consumption of roughly 300,000 households.

There is some on and off chatter of china setting up such a facility in the xinjian region

many chinese don't have access to enough fresh water.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

I won't argue about things we don't have evidence for.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by Pratyush »

ramana wrote:Only XJP knows why he provoked India in Galwan.

About 6 -8 months after Mammallapuram summit in October 2019.
All explanations are to get to that core fact.

One thought I had about the timing of the clashes was that it was the earliest physical response the PRC could make in the face of the abrogation of 35A and 370.

I recall Kherge asking the government about Aksai Chin. With Amit Shah responding that we will die but take it back. Or something to that effect.

PRC would have been quite worried about the implications of that statement. Coupled with poor logistics capacity of the pla to sustain forces in the area.

An action to caution India looks like a plausible high risk high reward option from PRC.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

Anybody in Delhi has read this book?

https://usiofindia.org/publication/cs3/ ... sf_paged=3
India and China Building Strategic Trust

Book Authors: Maj Gen Rajiv Narayanan, AVSM,VSM (Retd), Professor Qiu Yonghui

Book ISBN: 9789389620009

Book Publish Year: 2020

By the early 21st century with the rise of China economies of East Asia and India, the prognosis of a strong Asia showed promise. The Indo – Pacific Region (essentially Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean) deservedly came to be recognised as the new ‘Centre of Gravity’ in the evolving world economic order. Asian states have exhibited leadership in a range of significant areas, such as economics, diplomacy, military power, science & technology, innovation, and soft power thus adding traction to the notion of ‘Asia Century’ of shared prosperity and common destiny. Under this overarching geostrategic environment, it is imperative that the two most populous and growing economic powers, India and China, move towards achieving consensus, cooperation, and strategic trust rather than compete and contest. However, since the tumultuous border war of 1962, there exists a deep distrust of each other’s motives across the Himalayan barriers. To achieve this India and China ought to share their perspectives on the key drivers of divergences and work towards mitigating the same to build strategic trust. This book seeks to assess the causes of strategic mistrust in Sino – India relations and recommend measures for building trust and improving bilateral relations. Towards that end, the ten divergences have been taken as individual chapters, with both Indian and Chinese scholars providing respective perspectives.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

Original paper referred to in the news report:
mody wrote:https://journals.plos.org/plosone/artic ... ne.0274999

A very good and detailed analysis of all Chinese incursions into Indian territory. Must read. The actual analysis and report as was reffered to in the above post. Posted on PlosOne.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

Image of the incursions along LAC from 2006

Image
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by chetak »

The cheeni are toxic competitors and they are technology thieves and yet look at the eager international cooperation that they are able to generate, especially from ameriki companies.

Systems and subsystems are almost always integrated, tested and certified with direct help from the concerned vendors who are keen to sell their systems

China’s homegrown C919 airliner has almost every important component imported -Engine, avionics, control systems, communications, landing gear...The list is long

Image

The flight control and management systems, as well as, all other subsystems would have been integrated with active cooperation and collaboration of the vendors and the cheeni aircraft manufacturer.

These domains would have now become a part of the cheeni manufacturer's rapidly evolving skill set and their aviation enterprise ecosystem and their designers and engineers will build from there on, with spinoffs being possibly applied to large MIL/Civilian tactical, and strategic transports, amphibious aircraft, executive jets and even to forthcoming fighter designs, upgrades, and future developments.

They seem to have already mastered wing and tail technology, no doubt with design and manufacturing technology copied from airbus and now applied in their homegrown C919 airliner.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by SSridhar »

China wants a parallel IOR Forum to defang us and they lie.

Australia, Maldives deny China's claims of their participation in its Indian Ocean meet - Economic Times
China's Foreign Ministry on Monday evaded a direct response to questions on the denials by Australia and the Maldives that their official representatives participated in the first China-Indian Ocean Region Forum as claimed by a Chinese organisation linked to the ruling Communist Party.

The China-International Development Cooperation Agency (CIDCA), an organisation part of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Leadership Group, said it held a meeting of the China-Indian Ocean Region Forum on Development Cooperation on November 21, in which 19 countries took part, according to a press release issued by it.

CIDCA is headed by Luo Zhaohui, the former Vice Foreign Minister and Ambassador to India.

According to the official website of the organisation, he is the Secretary of the CPC (the ruling Communist Party of China) Leadership Group of CIDCA.

"High Representatives" of 19 countries, including Indonesia, Pakistan, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Maldives, Nepal, Afghanistan, Iran, Oman, South Africa, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, Seychelles, Madagascar, Mauritius, Djibouti, Australia and representatives of 3 international organisations were present, it said.

India was reportedly not invited, according to informed sources here.

Subsequently, Australia and the Maldives denied official participation in the meeting.

Contrary to media reporting, no Australian Government official attended the Kunming China-Indian Ocean Forum on Development Cooperation, Australian High Commissioner to India Barry O'Farrell tweeted on Sunday.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Maldives issued a statement on Sunday, saying "it is aware of the joint press statement released by the China International Development Cooperation Agency (CIDCA) alleging the participation of the Maldives in the 'China-Indian Ocean Forum on Development Cooperation', held on 21 November 2022".

"The Ministry would like to clarify that the Government of Maldives did not participate in the above-mentioned Forum, and communicated its decision not to participate in the Embassy of the People's Republic of China to the Maldives on 15 November 2022. Furthermore, participation by individuals or groups of individuals from the Maldives, does not constitute official representation by the Government of Maldives," it said.

Asked at the media briefing about the denials by Australia and the Maldives, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said, "the competent authorities of China have also put out a detailed readout and held a press briefing about the event".


"If you are interested in knowing more details, I would refer you to them," he said.

The spokesperson also ducked a question about claims by China that 10 Indian businessmen participated in the China-South Asia Expo which was denied by the Indian Consulate in Guangzhou.

"Regarding the China-South Asia Expo, the Chinese side has issued relevant press releases. I'd like to refer you to the competent authorities for the specifics you asked about," he added.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

Must be unofficial low representatives from Australia and Maldives attended?
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

I think protests were encouraged by the XJP opposing faction which wants to reduce his aura/sheen as second most powerful leader after Mao Zedong.
Nevertheless it will make XJP focus inwards to reduce internal friction.

At anytime India needs to be wary as past history shows when there is internal turmoil China tends to escalate along LAC.

And am sure with new CDS things are moving along.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

Vishnu Som on NDTV has a summary of the US annual report on China which says that PLAN will expand its presence in Djibouti.
And has a few alarmist statements from Adm Arun Prakash etc.


Som quotes this report:
https://media.defense.gov/2022/Nov/29/2 ... -CHINA.PDF
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

Today brings news of another non-weapons combat flareup near Tawang.
It shows XJP is not interested in a peaceful LAC. He still probes to find a weak spot.
The weather is not conducive to operations yet the flareup happened.
Most likely a signal, but for what?
I think they had to signal urgently for something.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by Cyrano »

Signal that CCP still has sufficient grip on armed forces (outward and inward facing) despite the widespread and popular demonstrations against zero covid policies and state heavy handedness in general ?
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

Indian troops in area of face-off in Tawang gave befitting response to Chinese troops. Number of Chinese soldiers injured is more than that of Indian soldiers. Chinese had come heavily prepared with around 300 soldiers but didn't expect the Indian side also to be well prepared: Sources

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/16023107 ... xse5_vGrmA
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

Could be Cyrano.

However I think the signal is LAC and Tawang will be hot despite any CBMs.

Pay attention to "but didn't expect the Indian side also to be well prepared: Sources"
There is a lot hidden but a lot is also revealed here.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by SSridhar »

It again serves multiple purposes, the way in which the Chinese work.

Firstly, it diverts attention internally. This was expected after the protests, anyway. Xi's image is dented and has to be repaired. Taiwan is impossible and India is a low-hanging fruit. This is XJP's thinking. That the 'Indian troops were ready' not only shows the tactical awareness but also the ability at higher levels to read the Chinese mind.

Secondly, it activates another front to tie India down so that it doesn't actively participate in the QUAD or other anti-China fora. It is China's assessment that India wouldn't like to internationalize its China issue and would like to settle it amicably bilaterally. It is therefore confident that it can have its way with India. In the process, it weakens the QUAD further. It imposes costs on India while it can sustain its own costs more easily.

Don't forget that the AIIMS servers were crippled a week earlier. China indulges in sending warning signals like this. After the Kailash range was occupied by IA in late August that led to a big setback for PLA, the Mumbai electricity grid was hacked a month later in October,2020.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

After looking at many plausible reasons I think it's a signal to both external and internal actors.

External is an easy one. After Bali etc. XJP is signaling Tawang is a core interest as important as Taiwan.
Tawang is the center for Tibetian Buddhism which was the state religion of the Qing Dynasty and was in effect replaced by CPC dynasty.
Taiwan is a political challenge as its a Republic as opposed to a Totalitarian PRC.

The internal message is that XJP is not giving up Tawang for any reducing "trouble without" wrt India. After his West Asia trip to secure energy and markets, Internal pigeons might have cackled about his next big move.

There are some takeaways from this incident:
- Tawang is a core issue for PRC
- The "no firearms" rule from 1993 is still being followed.
- PRC has stretched the no firearms to lethal clubs and staff weapons. Need to emphasize "no weapons" means no weapons.
- Indian military is alert and fully aware and has solved the stochastic problem of where and when. Refer to that paper from a page ago.
- Next confrontation could be hot with firearms and it's not good.
- XJP can tell his pigeon hawks that the casualties are due to their cooing.

The fact he had to signal internal folks means he is not fully in control despite the 20th Congress.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

x-posting from Mil forum.
1)
Vips wrote:Face-off between Indian and Chinese troops along LAC in Arunachal last week; injuries on both sides.

Indian and Chinese troops clashed along the Line of Actual Control in Arunachal Pradesh over the weekend resulting in some jawans suffering minor injuries, sources said on Monday.

"On December 9, 2022, PLA troops contacted the LAC in Tawang Sector of Arunachal Pradesh which was contested by Indian troops in a firm and
resolute manner. This face-off led to minor injuries to a few personnel from both sides. Both sides immediately disengaged from the area," sources said.

Following the incident, sources said that India's commander in the area held a flag meeting with his counterpart to discuss the issue in accordance with structured mechanisms to "restore peace and tranquility".

This is the first incident of its kind after the deadly Galwan Valley clash in Ladakh in 2020.

On May 5, 2020, Chinese and Indian troops engaged in aggressive melee, face-offs, and skirmishes at locations along the Sino-Indian border, including near the disputed Pangong Lake in Ladakh and the Tibet Autonomous Region, and near the border between Sikkim and the Tibet Autonomous Region.

Additional clashes also took place at locations in eastern Ladakh along the Line of Actual Control. The clash led to the death of around 25 Indian troops and over 45 Chinese soldiers.
2)
Vips wrote:Tawang clash: China's PLA sent 300 soldiers, suffered more injuries.

The Indian troops deployed in the area of face-off on Friday in Arunachal Pradesh's Tawang sector gave a befitting response to the Chinese troops and the number of Chinese soldiers injured in the clash is more than the Indian soldiers, sources said on Monday.

Sources said the Chinese had come heavily prepared with around 300 soldiers but did not expect the Indian side to be well prepared.
Advertisement

The Indian Army said on Monday that Indian and Chinese troops clashed along the Line of Actual Control in the Tawang sector of Arunachal Pradesh on December 9 and the face-off resulted in "minor injuries to a few personnel from both sides".

The clash near Yangtse along the LAC in the sensitive sector took place last Friday amid the over 30-month border standoff between the two sides in eastern Ladakh.

"On December 9, PLA troops contacted the LAC in Tawang Sector which was contested by own (Indian) troops in a firm and resolute manner. This face-off led to minor injuries to few personnel from both sides," the Army said in a statement.

"Both sides immediately disengaged from the area. As a follow up of the incident, own (Indian) commander in the area held a flag meeting with his counterpart to discuss the issue in accordance with structured mechanisms to restore peace and tranquillity," it said.

The Army statement did not mention the number of troops involved in the face-off and those injured in the incident. The Army said there are areas of "differing perception" along the LAC in the Tawang sector.

"In certain areas along the LAC in the Tawang Sector in Arunachal Pradesh there are areas of differing perception, wherein both sides patrol the area up to their claim lines. This has been the trend since 2006," the Army said.

It is learnt that the injuries on the Chinese side could be higher.

It is the first major clash between the Indian and Chinese armies since August 2020 near Rinchen La in eastern Ladakh.

Indian and Chinese troops were engaged in a brief face-off near Yangtse in October last year as well and it was resolved following talks between local commanders of the two sides as per established protocols.

The ties between India and China nosedived significantly following the fierce clash in the Galwan Valley in June 2020 that marked the most serious military conflict between the two sides in decades.
3)
SSridhar wrote:Border tension after Indian, Chinese soldiers clash at Tawang - Manu Pubby, ET
Sources said that the clash did not involve firearms but clubs and sticks were used, resulting in injuries. The clash took place after close to 350 Chinese soldiers approached the contested border to target an Indian Army post and were physically stopped from crossing.

Sources said that the intruding troops were identified well in advance, enabling Indian soldiers to confront them at the border. They added that an adequate number of troops were mobilised by the Indian side to prevent an intrusion and targeting of the post.

4)
SSridhar wrote:
williams wrote: No, we should play their game. Probe areas of weakness and occupy them. Act as though it is a local incident.
Speaking on 20th September 2022 at the India Defence Conclave, the Chief of the Indian Army, Gen. Manoj Pandey said the lessons learnt from the over 28-month military face-off with China in eastern Ladakh included the need to maintain “high levels of operational preparedness at all times”, further enhance infrastructure development along the northern borders, especially in Arunachal Pradesh, and induct “niche or disruptive” technologies in a major way. “We also need to develop our ‘grey zone’ capabilities,”, he said.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

Looks like Forbes magazine had pointed to this change in weapons by PLA in 2021 and IA was ready.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelpec ... ght-india/


Image

A 1996 agreement regarding the disputed border – known as the Line of Actual Control, or LAC – states that "neither side shall open fire or hunt with guns or explosives within two kilometers [1.3 miles] from the line of actual control."....

In theory, this form of battlefield gun control should have kept a lid on hostilities. But when China began gradually encroaching on the border this summer, its soldiers came up with a creative but lethal solution. In a June clash in the Galwan valley along the northern Indian territory of Ladakh, Chinese troops reportedly attacked Indian soldiers with improvised weapons that included nail-studded rods. India lost 20 soldiers in hand-to-hand battles, while China may have lost dozens of soldiers.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by niran »

ramana wrote:After looking at many plausible reasons I think it's a signal to both external and internal actors.

External is an easy one. After Bali etc. XJP is signaling Tawang is a core interest as important as Taiwan.
Tawang is the center for Tibetian Buddhism which was the state religion of the Qing Dynasty and was in effect replaced by CPC dynasty.
Taiwan is a political challenge as its a Republic as opposed to a Totalitarian PRC.

The internal message is that XJP is not giving up Tawang for any reducing "trouble without" wrt India. After his West Asia trip to secure energy and markets, Internal pigeons might have cackled about his next big move.

There are some takeaways from this incident:
- Tawang is a core issue for PRC
- The "no firearms" rule from 1993 is still being followed.
- PRC has stretched the no firearms to lethal clubs and staff weapons. Need to emphasize "no weapons" means no weapons.
- Indian military is alert and fully aware and has solved the stochastic problem of where and when. Refer to that paper from a page ago.
- Next confrontation could be hot with firearms and it's not good.
- XJP can tell his pigeon hawks that the casualties are due to their cooing.

The fact he had to signal internal folks means he is not fully in control despite the 20th Congress.
apart from the phrase in red rest is precise 10/10 bingo
all of us (BRF always ahead of curve) have heard about command theaters formation despite all the hungama Eastern Theater command is up and running full steam, this raises a pertinent question why attack at a place where enemy is known to be ready??? well logistics is the answer, logistic is the real reason to win or lose a war it is winter now Laddhak PLA cannot sustain anything beyond first wave of ground attack mind you 60ies PLA had half a million men men acclimatizing in Laddhak for 3 plus years out of which onree 80,000 were ready for 62 war rest either died or maimed so killed off, current day ereven does not have such hold on holloi polloi thus Laddhak cannot be attacked in winter.

this leaves NE, East Theater command divide NE into 2 sectors
1. North sector direct India Cheena border of which Tawang is the head(snake head in PLA parlance)
2. East sector direct India Burma border with Kohima as Head
the latest clash shows:
- East is plugged
- North is plugged
- PLA intent was to signal Tawang is the prize ye Endiyans will be taught a lesson
- IA is ready and a shooting war this winter will be fantastic it will release the itch to avenge, chop 12 foot cheena to 4 foot cheena will be cured
i say yessss, ye PLA bring it on
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by SSridhar »

ramana wrote:Looks like Forbes magazine had pointed to this change in weapons by PLA in 2021 and IA was ready.
Actually, it began three years before Galwan.

As the issue at Doka La continued, China opened another front in Pongong Tso on our Independence Day. This time it was physical as the PLA pelted Indian troops with stones attacked them with rods (a first), and punched and kicked at the Finger 6 point of the lake in a three-hour brawl, although no shots were fired.

That's the grey zone tactic.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

News reports that XJP sent 18 PLAAF planes to intimidate Taiwan.

Taken together with the Tawang incursion, I submit XJP is very shaky at this time.

Sending a show of force to Tawang and Taiwan (T&T) is a sign of weakness.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by Cyrano »

Demystifying China - the part that concerns China starts from 25mins onwards. Sumit Peer states he has visited China over 20 times over the years and is well familiar with their system.
(in Hindi)
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

Chinese monitoring ship moves away from the splash zone.

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/16026826 ... NPK1NUKENQ
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by Cyrano »

Ha ha ! They considered the possibility of real time update of target coordinates ;)
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