Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

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sanjaykumar
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by sanjaykumar »

Their birth rate is falling. One million fewer births last year than projected. With acceleration in drop in fertility it may be close to 10 million fewer births than projected, over five years. That means stress on social welfare schemes and fewer workers to fund pensions. They have more than enough people to run the factories.

But it means up to 40 million retired would have been parental sets without little emperors to support them in 20-25 years. Will the CCP fight India on some frozen wastes or fund these people’s pensions?
ramana
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

Sanjay, Yes demographics cliff is coming around 2050.
One of the drivers of XJP inner and outer island policy breakout is that factor.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

sanjaykumar wrote:Yi Fuxian, an obstetrics and gynaecology researcher at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and expert on China’s population changes, said the decline in population was occurring almost a decade earlier than the country’s government and the United Nations had projected.

“Meaning that China’s real demographic crisis is beyond imagination and that all of China’s past economic, social, defence, and foreign policies were based on faulty demographic data,” Yi said on Twitter.

“China’s demographic and economic outlook is much bleaker than expected. China will have to undergo a strategic contraction and adjust its social, economic, defence, and foreign policies. China will improve relations with the West.”


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... %20Tuesday.


India needs to stick to its guns. Literally.

I submit China's population was never that large.
The inflated numbers were like a puffer pigeon swelling up its throat to present a bigger challenge to its predators.

My reasoning is like this.

The Imperial Japanese invasion. The civil war between the Republican KMT and the Communist CPC, the Mao purges, the Great Famine of 1958, the Great Leap Forward, and the Cultural Revolution pogroms all decimated the Chinese population. Then add the One Child policy.

How is it biologically possible to have such a large population in China?
For example, Russia suffered 20 million deaths in WWII and that had a great impact even now on the Russian population.

I think these inflated Chinese numbers were again a US experts drug induced speculations.
Most of the Hong Kong China watcher brigade turned out to be fakes.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by Cyrano »

May be they're simply trying to hide covid deaths now and the impact it can have in coming years ..
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by yensoy »

This is going to majorly screw up things for the West and even for us.

There are fewer people to build stuff (population decrease)
Of these, there are a fewer fraction who are willing to build stuff (less interest in factory jobs, even if it means taking up low paying delivery gigs)
With this shortage in place, worker salaries will go up significantly
And our dependence on China produced goods will only increase due to increasing worldwide demand.

This can't end well. Cost of production will have major ramifications, even with increasing automation in place. For instance, it will be increasingly uneconomical to build homes in the West due to increased input costs (raw building materials as well as expensive fittings coming from China), which will affect wide swaths of the economy and reduce actual standard of living.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

Its the Great Reset.
Need to understand the truth and prepare for it.
XJP doesn't want to be Gungadin anymore for the US.
BTW PRC just agreed to designate AR Makki as a terrorist.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by RaviB »

ramana wrote:Thank you. Do you read Chinese?
Ramana garu, yes. I also did business with Chinese and travelled there often but now it's ten years since I visited. Also my Chinese is not all that great now because I shifted to a different area and hardly ever use it, other than following social media stuff.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by RaviB »

NRao wrote:
RaviB wrote: Warning: Do not read this if you have high blood pressure, I'm sharing it only to increase understanding of how the Chinese view/misunderstand India.

http://www.cicir.ac.cn/UpFiles/file/202 ... 072987.pdf
..

That article is 2+ years old. Do you know if he has penned a more recent one on the same topic?
I haven't been keeping up due to lack of time but I'll post if I find the time to read something.

If we could have a post with resources, then these are the main Chinese experts on India to follow:
  • Liu Zongyi , secretary-general of the Center for China and South Asian Studies of the Shanghai Institutes of International Studies (SIIS);
    Lin Minwang, deputy director of theCenter for South Asian Studies at Fudan University;
    Yang Siling, vice-dean of the department of South Asian Studies at the Yunnan Academy of Social Sciences;
    researchers from the China Institutes for Contemporary International Relations (CICIR),
    Hu Shisheng and Wang Shida, respectively director and deputy director of the Institute for South Asian Studies,
    Ling Shengli, director of the International Security Research Center of the China Foreign Affairs University;
    Zhang Li, Research Professor at the Institute for South Asian Studies of Sichuan University in Chengdu
    Sun Xingjie, vice-dean of the College of Public Diplomacy at Jilin University in Changchun.
This list is from an article in China Trends

China Trends is a very good publication to get a quick digest of analysis using original Chinese sources. I would recommend anyone with interest in China to read it regularly from their website here https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/asia/publications
ramana
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

RaviB, Thanks for your responses.
We need more people to learn Chinese so at least can read and follow the media.
Not scholar level but everyday Chinese.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

Guardian reports

"Xi’s authority dented by sudden Covid U-turn but iron grip on power is undimmed"

As I commented XJP mandate is shaken but not broken.

"The question of cauldrons being heavy or light hasn't come!"
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by SSridhar »

Japan-India’s ‘symbolic’ drills complicate China’s calculus for Indo-Pacific, analysts say - South China Morning Post
Joint air combat drills between Japan and India are largely symbolic but carry a message of deterrence to China’s ambitions in the Indo-Pacific, analysts say, as nations develop new military alliances that Beijing will have to game into its strategy for the region.

The maiden Veer Guardian exercises are being held at an airbase in Ibaraki prefecture, northeast of Tokyo until next Thursday, with four F-2 and four F-15 fighters taking part, Japan’s Defence Ministry said.

It is the first one-on-one training of its kind, the ministry added, although Japan and India have conducted joint maritime exercises since 2012 and army training since 2018.

“The more the status-quo militaries hold exercises, the safer the Indo-Pacific is,” said Masafumi Iida, a security studies fellow at the National Institute for Defense Studies in Japan.

Veer Guardian “is the first step to higher levels of drills and exercises between both the air forces in the coming years”, Iida said, adding that it is “indispensable” for “status-quo countries” to jointly strengthen deterrence so as to keep the regional peace.

Concern among Indo-Pacific nations have intensified in recent months in part over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – reflecting the risk of unexpected conflict challenging peace – as well as the growing Chinese military presence across the Taiwan Strait.

Timothy Heath, a senior international defence researcher at US think tank Rand Corporation said the Japan-India air drills are primarily “symbolic” as the two militaries are not integrated.

“They use different equipment and procedures and cannot fight as a combined force,” Heath said.

But Heath said that the increased joint drills – which have at different times occurred with the US, Australia, South Korea, UK and Germany – send “an important deterrence message to China and North Korea”.

“The involvement of so many countries in military exercises complicates Chinese decision making and adds another deterring influence,” Heath said.

In recent months, the US has conducted joint drills with almost all of the major powers in the region, including with Japan in the Keen Sword drills in November and India in Uttarakhand, about 100km from the Line of Actual Control, the de facto border between India and China.

Last month, Washington held air drills with South Korea, marking the first visit by the F-22 stealth fighters to Seoul since May 2018.

From September to December, Britain held a series of exercises that saw the UK Armed Forces train alongside Australia, Japan, South Korea and other regional countries.

Australia also hosted the Pitch Black joint military exercise in August with 17 countries taking part, with the German Air Force taking part for the first time.

In August, the US conducted joint combat exercises with Indonesia in the Garuda Shield with over a dozen countries including Australia and Japan, making it the largest edition since Garuda Shield was established in 2009.

Veer Guardian is likely to reveal more about the gaps in the potential for military cooperation between the two nations than anything else, said Kei Koga, an associate public policy and global affairs professor at the Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.

India’s air force is reliant on Russian equipment, while Japan is mainly based on American tech and hardware, so “bilateral interoperability” will be limited, he said.

Yet it remains an “opportunity for both to assess the possibility and limitations of operational cooperation”, Koga added. But there are risks in the new frenzy to make alliances.

They can “trigger an arms race and increase the risk of conflict, so communication becomes important”, Koga said, citing the increased risk of military exercises being misinterpreted or misunderstood.

China has already moved to show that it will not be outdone in its backyard.

It held a weeklong live-fire naval exercise with Russia in the East China Sea last month, sent fighter jets and bombers to Thailand for an exercise in August and conducted maritime exercises with Pakistan in July.


As potential flashpoints emerge across the Indo-Pacific, from Taiwan to North Korea, the South China Sea to the Indian Ocean, Japan has moved away from its pacifist stance.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida signed a pact deepening security ties with US President Joe Biden last week, in a move Beijing says is provocative and likely to worsen relations.

But Japan’s network of military partners beyond the US is also fast expanding.

Apart from conducting drills such as the Malabar naval exercises with the Quad countries – the US, Australia and India – Japan also took part in the La Perouse 21 multilateral naval exercise hosted by France in the Bay of Bengal.

Iida said Japan intends to increase defence cooperation with countries that have common strategic interest in maintaining the rules-based security order in the Indo-Pacific “to cope with the revisionist powers such as China and Russia”.

The ambitions and growing capabilities of China and Russia “are the root causes of the instability”, he said.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

News report

India's Intelligence Bureau has created a new wing — China Coordination Centre — to collaborate with financial enforcement agencies to investigate Chinese companies in India. #NationalSecurity

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 414895.ece
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

"The assessment by agencies found that the commercial entities operate in India with five primary objectives — influencing minds, build economic control, acquisition of data, for espionage and to target scientists to compromise innovation and intellectual property rights (IPRs), a preliminary paper prepared on the topic said. "
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by NRao »

NRao
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by NRao »

ramana
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

Chinese satellite DAQI-1 is said to have a green laser fir Atmospheric pollution detection.

Can some one input its orbital parameters and plot its ground track using a Satellite program?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.scienc ... er-all/amp

I want to see how it sees the earth.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

Cdre Uday Bhaskar writes: https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comme ... cas-479123
China-US balloon fracas
Raises questions over equitable management of use of space as a domain

C Uday Bhaskar

Director, Society for Policy Studies

On February 9, the US House of Representatives unanimously backed a resolution condemning the recent incursion of a Chinese spy balloon into US airspace and described it as ‘a brazen violation of United States sovereignty’. The final vote tally was 419 for and none against. This unanimity over China is significant, given the deeply fractured political divide in the US legislature. It is also indicative of the bipartisan consensus over China that has been gathering traction in the US since the Trump era.

The troubled bilateral relationship between the US and China that had shown the potential for a slight degree of improvement with the resumption of high-level dialogue has gone rapidly south in a visibly discordant manner over the spy balloon. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was scheduled to visit China in early February, but this has been aborted, even as Beijing has accused Washington of overreacting.
More details are emerging over what Beijing claimed was a civilian weather balloon that had gone off course and while a definitive conclusion is yet to be reached about the nature of the ‘violation’, this is a matter that has a relevance for all of China’s interlocutors, including India. Furthermore, this issue raises certain complex questions over the equitable and consensual management of the use of space as a domain and the demarcation between near-space and outer-space boundaries being part of the new global commons.

The exchange of sharp words and related acrimony between the US and China peaked with US President Joe Biden ordering that the truant balloon be shot down. The Pentagon carried out the task on February 4 by firing a missile at the balloon and bringing it down off the coast near South Carolina. This use of military ordnance by the US is a significant punctuation in the bilateral relationship and will pose a challenge to Chinese President Xi Jinping.

More details are emerging over what Beijing claimed was a civilian weather balloon that had gone off course and while a definitive conclusion is yet to be reached about the nature of the ‘violation’, this is a matter that has a relevance for all of China’s interlocutors, including India. Furthermore, this issue raises certain complex questions over the equitable and consensual management of the use of space as a domain and the demarcation between near-space and outer-space boundaries being part of the new global commons.

If indeed this was a civilian weather platform, as claimed by Beijing, it is not clear why it was being deployed at such distant ranges far away from China. And if there was a compelling meteorological reason for such deployment, Beijing could have informed the countries concerned about the trajectory of the wayward balloon, which would be determined by wind currents and space turbulence. This kind of transparency would have allayed any anxiety about the nature of such data-gathering (now seen as an intelligence mission surveillance) in those nations that have a security concern apropos of China.

{This is another Gray Zone warfare that China is using. It's similar to the spiked clubs used at Galwan. The Peace and Tranquility agreement prohibited firearms along LAC. Hence China used spiked clubs which are not prohibited explicitly. The Open Skies treaty of 1992 is basically defunct as both US and Russia withdrew. So China wants some agreement on overflights. Hence this usage of balloons.}

That Beijing chose a degree of tenacious opacity over routine transparency in this matter has led to predictable doubts about Chinese intent and credibility. The assertion by the US that based on the imagery obtained from its U-2 spy planes, it has concluded that the equipment on the balloon was meant for ‘intelligence purposes’ and that this was inconsistent with ‘equipment onboard weather balloons’ adds to this perception about Chinese perfidy.

The second strand pertains to the manner in which the US and China have dealt with this issue of airspace transgression and the escalation that has been witnessed over the last fortnight, culminating with the US using a missile to ‘protect’ its sovereignty. It is more than evident that the US-China relationship is moving towards greater discord with seemingly intractable causal factors. This was amply reflected in the State of the Union Address by President Biden last week.

{US is asserting its right o shoot down air space violations.}


In one of the abiding paradoxes of the last decade, tension with China over what is perceived by many of its interlocutors as unambiguous belligerence and/or covert use of military muscle to snatch unilateral tactical advantage (viz South China Sea and Ladakh-Galwan) has not prevented a robust trade and economic relationship. The US, Japan and India are in a similar space and will need to evolve individual and collective approaches to prudently manage this contradiction.

{Looks like Indian response in multi-domain is not observed by the author.}

For India, the manner in which Beijing deals with the balloon controversy, both with the US at the bilateral level and the global community, would have important cues in relation to the current standoff across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and the long festering, unresolved territorial dispute. On the tactical plane, if the US allegation that the PLA has a vast fleet of surveillance balloons operating in near-space is indeed true, what does this mean for the LAC and the military standoff in the more contested regions?

On balance, it appears that there is more than hot air in the ballooning controversy and that it has set off angry inter-continental ripples for now.

{The conclusion does not reconcile with the arguments presented. Chinese balloons are another gray zone warfare contestation. Not hot air. Besides the balloons are helium powered!}

ramana
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

More on Chinese balloons. Timing wise it was bad as it forced Blinken visit cancelation.

https://inews.co.uk/news/chinese-spy-ba ... smart-news
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

Book Review

Saluting the Yellow Emperor: A Case of Swedish Sinography
Perry Johansson

Saluting the Yellow Emperor tells the fascinating story of a group of Swedish scholars who rediscovered the pronunciation of the Chinese classics, buried Silk Road cities, and a Chinese Stone Age, while spiriting antiquities out of Asia. Mining Swedish archives and drawing on letters, diaries, personal papers, and published accounts, it is the first collective history on this group of China scholars. In his analysis, Perry Johansson turns Edward Said s argument about orientalism inside out. Rather than simply serving Western imperialism, Bernhard Karlgren, Johan Gunnar Andersson, Sven Hedin, Osvald Siren, and Jan Myrdal were opportunists who highly appreciated the Chinese Empire whose civilizing mission in East and Central Asia they supported in word and deed. Whether friendly with Mao or Hitler, their occidentalist disdain of Western egalitarian societies made them champions of the Chinese mythology of obedient peasants ruled by an enlightened autocracy."
I think the last line applies to post-Independence Indian scholarship also. Due to their disdain for colonial masters they to championed the mythology of the obedient peasants not understanding that its the 'obedient peasants' who decide the Mandate of Heaven.

In fact, ex-Premier Li Keqiang in his farewell also says the same thing that it is the 'people' who decide the mandate.
And one whole segment of CPC monitors the people.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by SSridhar »

ramana wrote:Cdre Uday Bhaskar writes: https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comme ... cas-479123
China-US balloon fracas
Raises questions over equitable management of use of space as a domain

C Uday Bhaskar

Director, Society for Policy Studies
I completely agree with all your in-line comments, ramana.

The article errs on all the points it touches upon.

The Cmde should not confuse airspace with space. By all legal definitions accepted by all countries, the Karman Line at 100 Km altitude defines the beginning of space.

I am also unable to agree with the author that somehow the manner of eventual resolution of the US-China balloon fracas would have pointers for the resolution of India-China border issue. The two are entirely and absolutely different in context and nature.
ramana
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

Yes quite confused. Think how he was Dy Director of IDSA?
The reality is he wants an India-China settlement. Rest is clutching at straws to get there.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

Link: https://twitter.com/MinhazMerchant/stat ... 79328?s=20

Image

Now read this move wrt the book review I posted on Maritime Strategy.

viewtopic.php?p=2583010#p2583010
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ShauryaT »

I admire the scholarship of Rear Admiral Raja Menon greatly. We should do all we can to build a strong base in Car Nicobar for all the reasons he suggest. I do differ on one aspect. The idea that somehow an advantage over waters is a substitute for pressure on land. Land, when acquired through arms can be a permanent loss.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

Galwan has changed the theater to the seas.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by chetak »

ramana wrote:Galwan has changed the theater to the seas.

The greater the Indian pressure piled on the cheeni at sea makes the land narrative that much more manageable for us. The advantage of the IN is that it is seasoned, blooded, trusted, and innovative. The PLAN navy: no so much.

Truth be told, the cheeni strength is at sea where it dominates the IN by a margin of 1:4, give or take. On land, not so much.

High altitude warfare is India's unrivaled forte and she has no challengers in this domain.

The cheenis will not do well in a tradeoff while trying to balance the inherent imperatives driving the strategic compulsions in the straits of malacca, when compared with the gwadar alternative with its huge sunk costs of pipelines and roads and port infrastructure that the cheeni are stuck with, given the dismal outlook for the CPEC which has now morphed into the security nightmare that is squarely staring them in the face.

The Indian Army is well entrenched in this region and is also rapidly ramping up the supply lines, logistics infrastructure, and supporting MI initiatives.

ladakh is not to the liking of the pampered little princelings. The cheeni are keen to open new fronts in tawang and foment internal disturbances in the NE

The unmanageable risk for the cheeni is the unlimited economic downside in supporting a pak state that is being run by an entitled elite of which the crore kammandu jernails are just one small part. The entire elite ecosystem is extractive and that is how the elites profit and prosper. For this system to survive, they need a steady stream of unaccounted "aid" with no questions asked by the donors.

To use a rude comparison, the amerikis functioned like pimps who not only used the pakis but also fed and protected them.

The cheenis are functioning more like customers, meaning for them the pakis are to be used and thrown forgetting that even paki tawaifs have their aukat

The abduls and ayeshas have so far (and also traditionally) been kept quiet by low food and fuel prices (subsidized by the state, which explains the extremely low prices) because that is how they maintain relatively quiet behavior and peace on the streets. This is the standard playbook used for the longest time by the ummah ruling elites and also enforced all over the middle east. It also was the way that saddam kept his populace quiet, apart from the customary and public shooting of one or two recalcitrant natives almost every week as examples of his power.

If the cheenis have to cut or even trim their losses in the CPEC (and other allied "investments"), the CPC will have no option but to go in for the kill, leading to the sidelining or maybe even the elimination of the current leadership.

IMVHO, This is also why the current cheeni leadership is not only firewalling itself but also derisking a possible siege by building a fortress of the faithful to ensure its survival in case things go pear shaped.
Last edited by chetak on 17 Mar 2023 16:02, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by NRao »

Xi to officially visit Russia on Monday.

Hope he finds his clothes.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

We need some tight analysis now that XJP is fully in control of Li Kiqiang's exit.

It's a new era.
In Clausewitz's terms, XJP has removed internal friction.

What I am saying is forget our old knowledge and look at XJP China with a blank mind.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by SSridhar »

ramana wrote:We need some tight analysis now that XJP is fully in control of Li Kiqiang's exit.

It's a new era.
In Clausewitz's terms, XJP has removed internal friction.

What I am saying is forget our old knowledge and look at XJP China with a blank mind.
I totally agree with your proposition that an entirely new analysis is needed of XJP, going forward. There is no 'friction' within the State Council or the PSC or the CMC or the CCP anymore. Everything is 'unified' and 'pacified'. That was why Li Keqiang probably said (let's hope presciently?) that the 'Heavens were watching', as a parting shot presenting his last 'work report'.

However, even while we attempt to look 'afresh' at XJP, we must realize that for XJP and 'his' CCP, this is all a continuum from the earlier two terms.

The first thing that comes to my mind is that XJP in c. 2013 felt that Deng's doctrine of 'biding & waiting' was over and the time for action has arrived. He wanted complete freedom of action. He reorganized the military accordingly, gave a tremendous impetus to aerospace and continued with Hu Jintao's modernization of the Navy even more rapidly. These were his building blocks. He purged all resistance and tolerated the CYL (for only as long as needed, that period co-terminating decisively with his second term) even as he accumulated all power and sidelined Li Keqiang who was his competitor for the top posts in c. 2012. He tightened his grip over the CCP and ensured tech giants wouldn't pose any challenge to him by 're-educating' them and diluting their stranglehold. This went on for the first two terms of XJP's 'New Era with Chinese Characteristics'. Hu Jintao's public slight in the 20th Congress was deliberate & orchestrated. This is the Consolidation Phase of the new era where there was no attempt to 'hide and bide' - if anything, it was a deliberate violation of Deng, including the abolition of the two-term limit and not grooming a successor - but an open and gradual upping of the ante all around, both internationally & domestically. Externally, warning shots were fired across the bow whether it was Space, Senkaku, Ladakh, Indo-China Sea, Philippines, Bhutan, Taiwan etc. or the far-away US. Ground was prepared through BRI (though today it may be somewhat in tatters) for influence and access.

The third term of XJP signifies 'real action' era. XJP is determined to make sure that the century following the 'Century of Humiliation' is China's most glorious period ever and he realizes that he doesn't have the luxury of much time left to see it happen, including the ever approaching 'tyranny of demography'. He has also sensed that the US has capitulated and lost ground much faster than he anticipated and like Field Marshal Ayub Khan’s penchant theory about India, XJP toils under the illusion that a few well-directed blows now would decapitate the US and her Allies. He is compressing his timelines, therefore, for the various milestones. I may be stating the obvious but War is going to happen whether it is India or Japan or Taiwan (the order of action may be debatable) and eventually lead to the displacement of the US itself from its already-teetering perch. There is still no succession plan for him as yet, meaning that he intends to be there for a fourth term also, unless the ever-observing Heavens will otherwise. Action should therefore be expected around the end of the third term extending into the fourth term with XJP finally relinquishing his position in c. 2033 as the greatest Emperor ever, eclipsing the deified Yellow Emperor, Shi Huang Di. If and when that happens, Mao will not be a patch on XJP.

While on this topic, about 'friction'. I think it is apt to extend Clausewitz's war-related 'friction' (like fog-of-war, uncertainties, political issues, supplies etc) to XJP's third term. While it appears that XJP has overcome 'friction' at the start of his third term, it could be only ephemeral. Even in modern war, with all its RMA which was supposed to eliminate friction, it has never disappeared as we are witnessing in UKR now, as we have seen in the Peloponnesian War. Friction is structural and will not go away. We have to intently look for 'friction points' in XJP's third term, a task difficult even at the best of times in China, but more so now.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by Manish_P »

Have been a reader of this thread to improve my very very sparse understanding of China

From some posts directing to the history i thought that XJP was following certain strategies of the emporers of old to structure the path of china (and his own position as the modern emporer). Maybe with some positional flexibility to allow for end game variations, like in chess.

If I understand correctly, are the gurus now saying that the positioning of himself as the absolute emporer completed and the external campaigns (end games) about to be initiated..

During his consolidation over the years some significant changes have occurred. Specifically wrt us In India, the INC with whom they signed an MOU is nearly routed. India is a member of QUAD (even if it is still in is infancy), AUUKUS is set up.

Has it lead to any rethinking of his strategy (other than perhaps changing the order) which is visible on the ground?

Or he is supremely over-confident like those other wannabe world conquerers of the WW2?
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by yensoy »

Manish_P wrote:If I understand correctly, are the gurus now saying that the positioning of himself as the absolute emporer completed and the external campaigns (end games) about to be initiated..
The trillion dollar question is whether all the belligerence displayed by XI was posturing to get to the pole position and stay there forever, or is it a precursor to something more sinister. While all indications are towards the latter, it is also a fact that Chinese ability to wage war is getting more and more limited given their own internal contradictions, forced economic growth (by taking on larger debts), demographic collapse and the inexperience and possible unwillingness to actually shed blood. Is XI really a madman or just pretending to be one?
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by SSridhar »

Manish_P wrote: . . that the positioning of himself as the absolute emporer completed and the external campaigns (end games) about to be initiated.. Or he is supremely over-confident like those other wannabe world conquerers of the WW2?
The more it changes the more it remains the same. The two iron-brothers whose friendship is taller than the tallest mountains exhibit the same fundamental paradigm.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by SSridhar »

yensoy wrote: . . . it is also a fact that Chinese ability to wage war is getting more and more limited given their own internal contradictions, forced economic growth (by taking on larger debts), demographic collapse and the inexperience and possible unwillingness to actually shed blood.
These are all the more reason for some kinetic action. I have always felt that the order of attack would be India & Japan which would train the inexperienced kids from single-child families and test the Chinese platforms, ammunition, tactics etc before taking on Taiwan. It would be XJP's conclusion that the US would not decisively intervene in Ladakh/AP or Senkaku and the campaign could be concluded quickly and fait-accompli would settle the issue and prevent a larger conflagration. They feel that diplomatically & militarily they could hold on to the gains. This is the tactic that they are trying out in Depsang and that's why the Chinese are constantly advising us to separate the border issue from other state-to-state dealings. Taiwan & Indo-China Sea would be an entirely different kettle of fish for the US, Japan, South Korea, et al. Even others like the French & the Brits along with Germans might be involved, if not the NATO. Recent invitation to Japan & South Korea to attend NATO summit means likely involvement of the NATO in ICS, if it comes to that. This could be XJP's thinking. Besides, the Chinese plan to use fewer contact ops. in order to overcome troop issues.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

Military power is another tool for China.
For US its the only tool.
Since we know English we also think like the West.

Manish_P,
I don't look at the past to change it. Nor do I look at the future for its uncertain.
Look at the present with open eyes for its reflection of both past and future.

Experts have not yet come to terms with what Li Keqiang's speech means.
Let it sink in.

Meanwhile, look at the rapid moves that XJP is making in West Asia: A peace deal between KSA and Iran leading to a pipeline for KSA Oil. Already Houthis have laid down arms.
Now he is going to Moscow. Need to see what he can persuade Zelensky with.

PS: see how WHO is raising questions on lab leak origins of Covid no that XJP is moving closer to Moscow.
Dr. Tedros owed his second term to China!!!!
PS, PS: Meanwhile Congress(Beijing Accord) is increasing friction in India while XJP is consolidating
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by A_Gupta »

A good discussion:

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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by SSridhar »

A_Gupta wrote:A good discussion:
Thanks A_Gupta for posting that.

I agree with Pillsbury to a very significant extent and not agree much with Kewalramani.

This tallies with what I said in the India-US thread, available here.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-repor ... sh-sources
U.S. Intel Helped India Rout China in 2022 Border Clash: Sources
A previously unreported act of intelligence-sharing prevented another deadly standoff in disputed Himalayan territory and rattled the Chinese government, sources say.
Paul D. Shinkman, March 20, 2023

India was able to repel a Chinese military incursion in contested border territory in the high Himalayas late last year due to unprecedented intelligence-sharing with the U.S. military, U.S. News has learned, an act that caught China’s People’s Liberation Army forces off-guard, enraged Beijing and appears to have forced the Chinese Communist Party to reconsider its approach to land grabs along its borders.
The U.S. government for the first time provided real-time details to its Indian counterparts of the Chinese positions and force strength in advance of a PLA incursion, says a source familiar with a previously unreported U.S. intelligence review of the encounter into the Arunachal Pradesh region. The information included actionable satellite imagery and was more detailed and delivered more quickly than anything the U.S. had previously shared with the Indian military.
It made a difference.The subsequent clash on Dec. 9 involving hundreds of troops wielding spiked clubs and Tasers did not result in any deaths as previous encounters have, rather it was limited to a dozen or so injuries and – most conspicuously – a Chinese retreat.
“They were waiting. And that’s because the U.S. had given India everything to be fully prepared for this,” the source says. “It demonstrates a test case of the success of how the two militaries are now cooperating and sharing intelligence.”
Several current and former analysts and officials, some speaking on the condition of anonymity, confirmed details of the encounter as well as the American role, to include unprecedented support the U.S. military provided to India on the ground – the fruits of a new era of cooperation between the two powers in recognition of their shared ambitions to push back on Chinese expansionism.
And while the new partnership yielded effective results in this relatively obscure and isolated corner of the world, it has vast implications for how the U.S. and its allies can effectively offset Beijing’s ambitions for land grabs there – and elsewhere.
“The PLA is generally in a probing-and-testing phase. They want to know how the Indians can and will respond and to see what the Indians can detect,” says Vikram Singh, a former top official for regional issues at the Pentagon, now with the United States Institute of Peace think tank. “It’s about China preparing for future conflict.”
The source familiar with the assessment of this intelligence – deemed to be highly reliable – says the U.S. government in the weeks before the encounter was fully cognizant that China was carrying out test exercises in the region to see if it could seize a new foothold in the remote mountain passes there or in other territory to which both China and India lay claim.
Several hundred PLA troops operating on the Chinese side planned to see if they could move forward and stay along the part of the border that is not officially demarcated as they have done in the past, most notably in 2020 in the Galwan Valley, several thousand miles to the west, the last time the two militaries clashed. That brawl caused a dozen or more deaths on both sides.
But unlike the previous encounters, the Indian forces identified the Chinese positions using the intelligence provided by the U.S. and maneuvered to intercept them.
.....
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
https://www.timesnownews.com/india/they ... e-98854260
‘They were waiting…’: Report claims intel shared by US helped India tackle Chinese incursion in Tawang
The US News, in its report, claimed that the US government "for the first time provided real-time details to its Indian counterparts of the Chinese positions and force strength in advance of a PLA incursion", which helped the Indian military tackle Chinese "incursions".
Times Now Digital, Mar 21, 2023

.....
Gautam
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

Folks I want to explore what are the potential outcomes for India with China getting tight with Russia, and KSA and Iran, and the prospects of Ukraine peace.
Raises XJP stature internationally.

He can go after Taiwan
He can go after India.

If given choice US would step back if XJP goes after India as that saves Taiwan and teaches India a lesson.
XJP tried a border skirmish in Ladakh in 2020 and in Tawang in 2022.
What if they decide to reenact 1962 and not small unit actions?

Something to think about.
If no Ukraine peace due to China's proposal then, of course, this path won't be taken.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by A_Gupta »

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-paci ... 023-03-22/
MANILA, March 22 (Reuters) - President Ferdinand Marcos Jr said on Wednesday that four new military bases under a defense agreement with the U.S. would be located in various parts of the Philippines, including in a province facing the South China Sea.

Last month, Marcos granted the U.S. access to four sites, on top of five existing locations under the 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), which comes amid China’s growing assertiveness in the South China Sea and towards Taiwan.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by KL Dubey »

ramana wrote:Folks I want to explore what are the potential outcomes

.....

given choice US would step back if XJP goes after India as that saves Taiwan and teaches India a lesson.

If no Ukraine peace due to China's proposal then, of course, this path won't be taken.
- The CCP cannot sustain more than one campaign, especially since the PLA is not a fighting army and is more of a propaganda/intimidation tool. When the bluff is called by someone, there is no going back.

- At the moment things look irredeemable for the CCP w.r.t the borders with India. There is no chance of any sustainable land grab anywhere. In reality, they are on the defensive w.r.t. the slow unraveling of Pakland and resulting destruction of any CPEC/OBOR/silk route/yada-yada plans. Loss of GB, POK, and Balochistan is now looking increasingly likely. There is absolutely no possibility of any economic or strategic gain for CCP in this unstable region, and there are no Wagner group convicts they can send into these areas.

- Attempting a full-scale conflict with India (or even Taiwan) will be surely suicidal for the PLA, and the CCP will crumble internally thereafter. I will sit up and take notice if/when the PLA manages to capture even the Spratly islands that they claim, or even the outlying Taiwan islands (Kinmen) - which would convey a bare minimum seriousness about PLA capability and CCP intent. Otherwise most of these scenario discussions are already well worn and repeated many times.

- US thinking is much more sophisticated. By defining the Indo-Pacific sphere as the key strategic zone, it is now committed to ramp up support to both India and Taiwan, and others as well. There is no room to pull back on any of this, since nobody will take them seriously afterwards. Bhaidanwa took the right decision to leave time-wasting places like Afghanistan - though one can debate the way it was done - in order to focus on IOR (mainly India) and the Pacific (which is not just Taiwan but many others).

- As for India, we have abandoned traditional "two-front" thinking. There is only one front everywhere and the adversary is the CCP, it does not matter whether we are fighting PLA gooks, Paki brownpants/jihadis, Myanmarese terrorists, covid-19 virus, or whatever. As of now, relentless build-up of economic, military, and border infrastructure, should be the resolute aim. The Bharat sarkar is doing an exemplary job of this. This has an effect globally, not just for India. Many other countries are stepping up to India's example. Soon the CCP will find itself with few "friends" other than the Pak pizza franchise waalas and "No-dong" waalahs.

- To round out the tour of the zoo: the Russian bear next door to the panda exhibit is an aggressive fellow and does not fear anyone. He is no friend of the CCP but only wants a transactional relationship. He does not need Jinping for anything except convenience, no matter what lofty words are used for public releases. Once the PLA and CCP get a thrashing from other military misadventures, the central asian lands of the CCP are open for the taking.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by SSridhar »

Thank you for a very nice analysis, KL Dubey. I agree on several points.
KL Dubey wrote:- The CCP cannot sustain more than one campaign,
Very true. The attacks will be sequential.
At the moment things look irredeemable for the CCP w.r.t the borders with India. There is no chance of any sustainable land grab anywhere. In reality, they are on the defensive w.r.t. the slow unraveling of Pakland and resulting destruction of any CPEC/OBOR/silk route/yada-yada plans. Loss of GB, POK, and Balochistan is now looking increasingly likely. There is absolutely no possibility of any economic or strategic gain for CCP in this unstable region, and there are no Wagner group convicts they can send into these areas.
I would argue that on the contrary, this unsettled situation bodes well for China to 'occupy' TSP. The temptation of Pakistan for China is the containment of India, protection of Xinjiang and of course, Gwadar. BRI was only meant for 'influence and access'.
Attempting a full-scale conflict with India (or even Taiwan) will be surely suicidal for the PLA, and the CCP will crumble internally thereafter. I will sit up and take notice if/when the PLA manages to capture even the Spratly islands that they claim, or even the outlying Taiwan islands (Kinmen) - which would convey a bare minimum seriousness about PLA capability and CCP intent. Otherwise most of these scenario discussions are already well worn and repeated many times.
I totally agree that CCP would crumble and XJP would hang from the lamp-post nearest to his Zhongnanhai residence. I also agree that attacks on India and Taiwan would be suicidal for China. It is not always that rational decisions are taken especially by a totalitarian ruler who is bent upon his ideological ambitions, his sense of humiliation and a consequent desire to avenge it, and who thinks of the current geopolitical situation as a never-before opportunity to achieve 'Middle Kingdom' status. In his significant speeches in the last three years, he has spoken repeatedly about unprecedented opportunities of a lifetime staring at China which it must grab wisely. Nobody around him in his third term can offer sage counsel. That's the danger and XJP seems to have deliberately done so. That's why I believe that XJP's third term is dangerous and one for Kinetics.
US thinking is much more sophisticated. By defining the Indo-Pacific sphere as the key strategic zone, it is now committed to ramp up support to both India and Taiwan, and others as well. There is no room to pull back on any of this, since nobody will take them seriously afterwards. Bhaidanwa took the right decision to leave time-wasting places like Afghanistan - though one can debate the way it was done - in order to focus on IOR (mainly India) and the Pacific (which is not just Taiwan but many others).
I agree.
As for India, we have abandoned traditional "two-front" thinking. There is only one front everywhere and the adversary is the CCP, it does not matter whether we are fighting PLA gooks, Paki brownpants/jihadis, Myanmarese terrorists, covid-19 virus, or whatever. As of now, relentless build-up of economic, military, and border infrastructure, should be the resolute aim. The Bharat sarkar is doing an exemplary job of this. This has an effect globally, not just for India. Many other countries are stepping up to India's example. Soon the CCP will find itself with few "friends" other than the Pak pizza franchise waalas and "No-dong" waalahs.
I agree.
To round out the tour of the zoo: the Russian bear next door to the panda exhibit is an aggressive fellow and does not fear anyone. He is no friend of the CCP but only wants a transactional relationship. He does not need Jinping for anything except convenience, no matter what lofty words are used for public releases.
Russia may be fearless and may have only a transactional relationship with China, for all we know. But, it has to first survive, which looks increasingly difficult. IMO, China egged on Russia to go for a war because it probably thought that NATO would unravel and that would be one more nail in the US coffin and one less security alliance that it would have to face in its global quest. The deliberate non-starter Chinese peace proposal does more of its same approach towards the UKR war.
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