Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

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ramana
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

Folks Indian.port development is not in response to China but to improve Indias transport options.
Please don't hijack the thread.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

KL Dubey wrote:
NRao wrote:I think the port in Nicobar is meant to compete with any port that China may suggest in Mynamar. IF the Indian port at Nicobar is a success then the costs of shipping goods through any other regional port go up - China will have to pay more, unless China twists arms.
PRC is already constructing a port and SEZ in Kyaukphyu, and a gas pipeline to Kunming is already operational. These are part of Jinping's OBOR/BRI desires, but there is not much economic potential. The great nicobar port and military base will certainly shut out the PRC as you say, but more importantly increase Indian trade connectivity especially for our eastern states.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by SSridhar »

The Nicobar islands, called Nakkavaram in Tamil for centuries, have been used for replenishments by shippers and voyagers for long. Rajendra Chola used Nakkavaram, a thousand years back, as a staging post for his naval vessels in the great assault on the Sri Wijaya Empire (Sumatra) through the 'unexpected' Sunda Straits to capture Palembang, their capital and destroy Jambi, their port which was used to harass sea traders on the High seas.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by chetak »

ramana wrote:
KL Dubey wrote:
PRC is already constructing a port and SEZ in Kyaukphyu, and a gas pipeline to Kunming is already operational. These are part of Jinping's OBOR/BRI desires, but there is not much economic potential. The great nicobar port and military base will certainly shut out the PRC as you say, but more importantly increase Indian trade connectivity especially for our eastern states.
Also shorten supply lines to the NE (especially the storage of grain and oil/gas etc on nicobar ), and bring it within easier interdiction range by missile armed aerial platforms, and most importantly, the improved reach of India's amphibious forces would have a much greater deterrence value.

The cheenis have been eyeing the NE for tens of decades now but India's Agni series has put paid to those greedy ambitions
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by KL Dubey »

Bangladesh is the other playground for the Bay of Bengal game. In addition to offering India use of the Chittagong (Chattogram) port, the BDs have gone with Japan for building the Matarbari port (further south near Myanmar).

https://swarajyamag.com/world/a-quiet-d ... bangladesh
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by sanman »



Did he accidentally misspeak? Or is there some new policy stance from Beijing being unveiled here?
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by SSridhar »

sanman wrote:Did he accidentally misspeak? Or is there some new policy stance from Beijing being unveiled here?
Isn't he echoing what Putin said recalling 'Rus' history?

Both China and Russia are troubled by vague memories of past Imperial glory. Putin went to the extent of denouncing Lenin & Stalin for the loss of Russian landmass. A far more powerful Xi is also aggressively trying to accumulate land and restore what he feels was Chinese real estate.

So, the Chinese Ambassador hasn't misspoken.

It would be interesting how India steers the G-20 & SCO joint communique in the months ahead.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by Pratyush »

I think that India needs to actively stir this pot. It's good for us.

The west is going to keep bringing Russian agression to any and all forums.

India should say to the west. If you clowns want to bring up Ukraine. Then don't expect us to prevent Russians and PRC from bringing historical territories belonging to them and the attendant reconquest of such territories.

Let the two sides f things up. India should not worry about any joint communique. If it goes to hell. Let it.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by SSridhar »

Pratyush, Russia is a different case altogether. But, India can and should never speak for China to the West. That’s a gross mistake. Even in our anger against the West, we cannot side with China.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by sanman »

SSridhar wrote:Both China and Russia are troubled by vague memories of past Imperial glory. Putin went to the extent of denouncing Lenin & Stalin for the loss of Russian landmass. A far more powerful Xi is also aggressively trying to accumulate land and restore what he feels was Chinese real estate.

So, the Chinese Ambassador hasn't misspoken.

It would be interesting how India steers the G-20 & SCO joint communique in the months ahead.
But while this stance is well-known from Russia, it seems to be very new for China to say stuff like this.

As far as I know, China has never taken any position on these issues before. China is now staking out positions on these matters in a new and unprecedented way, which is then provoking reactions from others.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by drnayar »

sanman wrote:[youtube]FWgUYhupohk

Did he accidentally misspeak? Or is there some new policy stance from Beijing being unveiled here?
Extrapolate that in India and China context .,Would Russia play quid pro quo and side with China ?
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by SSridhar »

sanman wrote:As far as I know, China has never taken any position on these issues before. China is now staking out positions on these matters in a new and unprecedented way, which is then provoking reactions from others.
It is true that China hasn't so far not openly suggested anything like that.

But, some countries do not have to say some things openly, they are 'popular' for what they stand for. China's imperial arrogance is well known for 2000 years. The new Imperial incarnation, the CPC, has steadfastly followed the dynastic imperial hubris and expansionism.

All I am saying is that the Ambassador’s outburst doesn’t come as a surprise.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.rediff.com/news/report/chin ... 230425.htm
Chinese defence minister to visit India this week
K J M Varma, April 25, 2023

China on Tuesday announced that its Defence Minister General Li Shangfu will visit India this week to attend the meeting of SCO defence ministers from April 27 during which he is expected to hold talks with his Indian counterpart Rajnath Singh on ending the prolonged eastern Ladakh standoff which has severely strained bilateral ties.
Considered a close associate of Chinese President Xi Jinping, General Li's India visit is regarded significant as it comes amid the vexed standoff between the armies of India and China in eastern Ladakh since May 2020.
'Upon invitation, Chinese State Councillor and Defence Minister General Li Shangfu will attend the meeting of the Council of Defense Ministers of the Member States of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in New Delhi, India, from April 27-28,' China's Ministry of National Defence (MND) said in a statement.
During the meeting, General Li will address the conference and meet with the heads of delegations from relevant countries to communicate and exchange views on the issues of the international and regional situation, as well as defence and security cooperation,' the statement said.
Gen Li is widely expected to hold a bilateral meeting with Defence Minister Singh and discuss the progress of the military and diplomatic talks to resolve the festering standoff.
Ahead of Gen Li's visit, the Chinese defence ministry spoke positively about the 18th round of the China-India Corps Commander Level Meeting held at the Chushul-Moldo border meeting point on the Chinese side on April 23.
It said both sides have agreed to 'speed up' the settlement of 'relevant issues' related to the prolonged standoff in eastern Ladakh, besides safeguarding peace in the border areas.
The two sides had a friendly and candid exchange of views on relevant issues, said the defence ministry's statement.
......
Gautam
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

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Chinese diplomat made threats to punish family of Chinese-Canadian MP, but Trudeau govt did nothing:

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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by Cyrano »

A very creative response to the China challenge. Good stuff by GoI!

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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by Kati »

Not sure if this is the right thread ....

DOJ charges former Apple engineer with alleged theft of autonomous car tech for China

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/16/doj-cha ... china.html
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by Amber G. »

Meanwhile Breaking news:
Indian Navy sent its rescue mission in response to the sinking of a Chinese Fishing Vessel Lu Peng Yuan Yu 028 with 39 crew onboard. The crew includes nationals from China, Indonesia and the Philippines. Navy's P8I aircraft carried out multiple and extensive searches.

Indian Navy units coordinated rescue efforts with other units in the area and guided the Chinese Navy warships transiting to the scene of incident.

China says Thank You
! (per China MofA)
Image
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by vimal »

Chad China owns the world now in the form of trillion $ loans.

https://fortune.com/2023/05/18/china-be ... stability/

In a lot of the world, the clock has hit midnight’: China is calling in loans to dozens of countries from Pakistan to Kenya

Keeping schools open, the lights on and even food on the table is being threatened by debt payments from the $1 trillion Belt and Road program.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by SSridhar »

Thank you for posting the above, vimal.

This is phenomenal and painstaking research work, which reveals a number of modus-operandi of PRC, some of which we have seen in neighbouring countries. The ‘Currency Swap’ loan is unique.

But, I do not subscribe to the theory that China does not deliberately practice 'debt-trap diplomacy' just because the BRI loans have emanated from dozens of Chinese banks and therefore uncoordinated. All these banks are state-owned and coordination happens at a very high-level which those at a lower-level would be acutely unaware of.


AidData, cited above, had already estimated the total loan disbursals by PRC as USD 1T. No country would let this kind of amount to flow out 'uncoordinated'. There must be a pattern and design to most of these loans. There could be insignificant something here and there that is outside this pattern.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

We need a realistic estimate of the Chinese GDP with a sum of assets and liabilities.

Chinese GDP is said to be $19.4T in 2022.
China's liabilities are said to be 77% of GDP per World Economics.com

https://www.worldeconomics.com/Debt/China.aspx
So real wealth is 0.23 of $19.3 T=$ 4.5T
Indian GDP is $3T
Debt/GDP per the above site is 52.3%
So real wealth generation is 0.477*3= $1.4T
The ratio of India/China= 1.4/4.5= 0.32

Factors to consider are Indian economy is growing while China is stagnant or declining due to geopolitics.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

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And consider this:


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_o ... _for_China
China's unequal transportation system, combined with important differences in the availability of natural and human resources and in industrial infrastructure, has produced significant variations in the regional economies of China.[109]

Economic development has generally been more rapid in coastal provinces than in the interior and there are large disparities in per capita income between regions. The three wealthiest regions are the Yangtze River Delta in East China; the Pearl River Delta in South China; and Jingjinji region in North China. It is the rapid development of these areas that is expected to have the most significant effect on the Asian regional economy as a whole and Chinese government policy is designed to remove the obstacles to accelerated growth in these wealthier regions. By 2035, China's four cities (Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen) are projected to be among the global top ten largest cities by nominal GDP according to a report by Oxford Economics.[110]
And see the following table of the 31 provinces of China. How many are not generating wealth?
It is only the coastal provinces that generate wealth,
The top 5 producers are in the 5 to 10%.
We need to have a similar map/table for India.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by SSridhar »

Only those 12 Eastern coastal provinces are the 'cradle' of China, Han-core. The rest are accretions or Greater or Akhand China.

It is this Akhand China that has always been problematic for them, both economically and security-wise.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

Right now they give China its big size and drain it economically.

Yet it can't let go.

It's like China is in Trishanku Narkam!!!
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

China has made a faux pas in boycotting the G-20 Tourism session in Srinagar.
The other country is Turkey which is in political chaos due to run-off.
So China chose to be in the same league as Turkey.
Further, GOI says it doesn't matter whether China attends or not leads to loss of face.
Hence they took umbrage and protested.
Noting hurts more than being called a nonentity.
But if you chose to be in Turkey's league, what else will you be called?
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by SSridhar »

ramana, by choosing to be in Pakistan's terrorist league since a long time and supporting its terrorism openly in the UNSC and FATF, China has shown the world that it doesn't care about reputation. Besides, the way it coerces and terrorizes small littorals of the Indo-China Sea shows its traditionally small mind in treating other countries. Its junking of the PCA award under UNCLOS shows that in its selfishness, it will upend anything casually. There are several instances of it lying in international fora.

If it cares so much about sovereignty etc in J&K, it has to answer why it is building projects in such a disputed area even by employing its PLA. Why did it violate the BDCA and other agreements in Galwan? China has a propensity to shoot itself in its foot repeatedly.

It is only its stranglehold as the world's supply-chain that sustains it. The QUAD and the IPEF must dismantle that.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

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I am convinced China's economy is all Shanghai Statistics. Will work to prove it.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

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https://nationalinterest.org/feature/ch ... ess-206495
However, China’s unprecedented military and economic capabilities have increasingly challenged New Delhi’s strategic autonomy. A matured India may not have a strategic alternative to sustain the past; it must thus work harmoniously and collaboratively with Washington for its national interest and civilizational heritage.
For the civilizational states of China and India, the past is often prologue. In his book, The India Way: Strategies for an Uncertain World, Indian external affairs minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar wrote that New Delhi believes it faces an inevitable “return to history,” rather than the Fukuyaman “end of history,” in the emerging international governance of multipolarity.

To that end, it has devised an incremental “Blue Dragon” strategy for the Indo-Pacific region. This approach encompasses the country’s expansion and influences in nearby major bodies of water, supported by economic and military projects. Starting with the East China Sea, Beijing has already aimed at expanding its reach to the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean to encircle India.

To this end, China has wasted no time sitting idle over the past few years. Instead, Beijing set its eyes on the two island nations of Sri Lanka in the heart of the Indian Ocean and Taiwan in the Western Pacific to advance its’ best “core” national interests and fulfill its longstanding geopolitical ambitions.
It is against this background that one must consider Tellis and other discerning observers’ questioning of India’s position as the United States’ most important and dependable democratic partner and friend. These doubts arise from the civilization dogma of “return to history,” which can be traced back to India’s millennia-old Hindu and Buddhist traditions. Such influences are nothing new; after achieving independence in 1947, India’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, advocated a “middle-path” non-aligned foreign policy during the Cold War period.
In the prevailing gamut of complexities and changing national security interests, Jaishankar summarized that “this is a time for us to engage America, manage China, cultivate Europe, reassure Russia.”
Additionally, India must recognize the medium- and long-term calculus of China’s grand-yet-veiled vision of national rejuvenation in the Indo-Pacific. It encompasses Beijing’s Blue Dragon strategy that has already put necessary footprints in the continental and maritime region of South Asia to encircle India in both security and economic domains. The subtle encirclement starts with Taiwan in the Western Pacific Ocean and extends to Sri Lanka in the heart of the Indian Ocean.

G20 leaders plan to meet in New Delhi in September of this year. Until then, Modi and Jaishankar certainly have time to reconsider their views on China’s intentions and capabilities. What New Delhi must ask itself is which would it rather see occur: China achieving national rejuvenation and global hegemony based upon military and economic strength, or an Indo-Pacific region that remains safe for democracy by fully aligning India with the United States and its allies?
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@18:13 - they mention that virtually all semiconductor manufacturing equipment comes from US, Japan, Netherlands. How the hell is tiny Netherlands such a big player?
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

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https://t.co/8zzi7x84k0
ORF op-ed will post full text

ORF
Home Expert Speak
Chinese strategy behind high-level exchanges with India
19 May 2023
ANTARA GHOSAL SINGH

China is using direct communications with India while also reaching out to India’s neighbours to push for stability at the border without conceding to India’s demands

KEYWORDS:

Chinese leadership, Lack of interest, High-level exchanges, India, LAC, Border dispute, G20, Chinese and Indian, SCO, China-India relations, Chinese media, LAC situation, US-China competition, Taiwan independence, Belt and Road Strategy, Geopolitical situation, 1962 War, Diplomatic,

At a time when the Chinese leadership’s lack of interest in engaging the United States (US) is making headlines, China, in a striking contrast, has been carrying out back-to-back high-level exchanges with India in the past few days, amidst a continued stalemate at the Line of Actual Control (LAC). In early March, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang visited India to attend the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting, where he held bilateral talks with Foreign Minister Dr. S Jaishankar on the border dispute. In late April, the Chinese and Indian militaries held the 18th round of the commander-level meeting. Soon after, Chinese State Councillor and Defense Minister Li Shangfu came to India on the occasion of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Defense Ministers’ Meeting, where he met his Indian counterpart, Rajnath Singh. Last week, Qin Gang once again came to India and held a dialogue with Dr S Jaishankar on the sidelines of the SCO Foreign Ministers’ Meeting. It needs to be noted that the G20 and SCO meetings could have been attended virtually as

Chinese State Councillor and Defense Minister Li Shangfu came to India on the occasion of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Defense Ministers’ Meeting, where he met his Indian counterpart, Rajnath Singh.

Discussions in the Chinese media and internet space indicate China’s keen interest, rather than urgency, to ice between China and India, and bring back whole-heartedly on the game with the US on the eastern frontier, as well as “clear up” the “Taiwan independence” forces.

Reacting to reports of growing India-US collaboration in the field of high-technology, defence, and third-country cooperation among others, the voices of concern have been growing louder in China—that the more the China-India border row is dragged on, the more the hostility lingers, and greater the chances of the situation being exploited by powers hostile to China, causing the latter “great and unnecessary” troubles going forward. In this regard, China’s two biggest concerns vis-á-vis India are: India’s possible choices in case of a Taiwan crisis; and India’s potential to replace China as a manufacturing power, given its demographic dividend, low cost, and large market. Not to mention, China also sees India as an RMB internationalisation—since India is a member of both BRICS and SCO.

Some Chinese observers do admit that India is the key to China’s future rise. Whether India will play a positive or negative role will be an important factor in dialogue mechanism between the Chinese and Indian militaries or top leadership being strengthened, regular people-to-people exchange being restored, etc.) or at least an impression of it can be created at the international level, it will curtail China’s rise. No wonder all official and semi-official communications from China have been highlighting that the China-India border situation is “generally stable”.


India’s possible choices in case of a Taiwan crisis; and India’s potential to replace China as a manufacturing power, given its demographic dividend, low cost, and large market.

However, for China, improving ties with India in actuality is easier said than done. Presently, the Chinese side seems to be smarting under what it calls India’s “ask a price” from China to normalise ties, to dare to grab benefits from China, and pressurise China to make “concessions” on the border issue. As per the Chinese assessment, the reason why India has maintained such a tough stance vis-á-vis China is because, be it the US or Russia or China, under the current geopolitical situation, all major powers have been vying to get India on their side to further their respective national interest; India now has the “competitive military advantages vis-à-vis India at the LAC like in the Depsang Plains, to instead “teaching India a lesson”, “thunderous blow to India like in 1962”, so that it does not dare to confront China on the Sino-Indian border issue in the next few decades. The latest voice being Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang, during his recent India trip, urging Minister Jaishankar to “take lessons from history”, which according to the Chinese assessment, is a warning to India to not forget the lessons of the 1962 War. But on the other hand, there is also rising concern within Chinese strategic circles that any 1962-style military action against India will further deteriorate the situation, turning a country of India’s size, potential, and influence, into an entrenched enemy, which will not be conducive to China’s development in the long run.

To address its ‘India dilemma’, China, in addition to directly communicating or negotiating with India through diplomatic and military channels, is also focusing on creating a “stronger geopolitical environment” to resolve the China-India border crisis. As a part of this strategy, it is reportedly reaching out to India’s neighbours such as Pakistan, Myanmar, and other South Asian and Southeast Asian countries, urging them to provide “controversial interview, the back-to-back Myanmar visit—all are understood to be part of this strategy. The idea is to convey to India that China still hold some cards and does not need to give in to India’s demands to stabilise its western frontier.

There is also rising concern within Chinese strategic circles that any 1962-style military action against India will further deteriorate the situation, turning a country of India’s size, potential, and influence, into an entrenched enemy, which will not be conducive to China’s development in the long run.


Overall, there should be little room for confusion within the Indian strategic community about the mixed signals emanating from Beijing of late—where it is actively seeking to engage with Indian leaders and society at large, but doing little to change the situation at the LAC. Instead, soliciting help from India’s neighbours to create trouble for India, so that the pressure at China’s western frontier can be reduced—it is in this context that Indian intelligence agencies have been lately highlighting China’s increased interest in fomenting unrest in the Northeast and other sensitive areas inside India. This is a part of China’s “two-handed preparations” vis-á-vis India—something that needs to be factored in appropriately during India’s future engagement with China.

Antara Ghosal Singh is a Fellow with the Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation

The views expressed above belong to the author(s).

The last para is kind of abrupt and implies the recent Manipur riots are Chinese fomented. This begs the question that the Kuki are Xianised Baptist tribals enjoying ST status inside India with kinship in Myanmar. We can discuss this in the Internal Security thread.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by Pratyush »

sanman wrote:

@18:13 - they mention that virtually all semiconductor manufacturing equipment comes from US, Japan, Netherlands. How the hell is tiny Netherlands such a big player?
Asianometry has done a nice series on ASML and TSMC linkages. I have attached the playlist for reference.

https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLKtx ... aA383XTfMv

Basically Netherland has benefitted from centuries of technology development in the western world. From Carl Zeiss to Phillips.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by sanman »

Pratyush wrote: Asianometry has done a nice series on ASML and TSMC linkages. I have attached the playlist for reference.

https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLKtx ... aA383XTfMv

Basically Netherland has benefitted from centuries of technology development in the western world. From Carl Zeiss to Phillips.
But how have they benefitted, to get themselves in such a position? (I'll go watch the video - I've probably watched it before but forgotten)
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by ramana »

Some of the best semiconductor mfg machines are Dutch made.
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Re: Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

Post by Pratyush »

Phillips is the common thread. ASML started as a Phillips subsidiary.

Phillips had a major stake in TSMC during the early days. It still does.

The rest of it is the industrial and human resource base of western Europe being brought together by Phillips
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