bold assessment, SSridhar sir though I have some queries:SSridhar wrote: I totally agree that CCP would crumble and XJP would hang from the lamp-post nearest to his Zhongnanhai residence. I also agree that attacks on India and Taiwan would be suicidal for China. It is not always that rational decisions are taken especially by a totalitarian ruler who is bent upon his ideological ambitions, his sense of humiliation and a consequent desire to avenge it, and who thinks of the current geopolitical situation as a never-before opportunity to achieve 'Middle Kingdom' status. In his significant speeches in the last three years, he has spoken repeatedly about unprecedented opportunities of a lifetime staring at China which it must grab wisely. Nobody around him in his third term can offer sage counsel. That's the danger and XJP seems to have deliberately done so. That's why I believe that XJP's third term is dangerous and one for Kinetics.
1) CCP would crumble - what would replace it? is there another power centre to provide sustained leadership? how much time will it take to consolidate power? will the power be top driven or will it be bottoms-up? the current setup is a loose fiefdom leased to prospective candidates to develop, they are beholden to the party
2) No one can offer XJP sage counsel - this can also be taken in a different way, either he has staffed everyone who is aligned with his viewpoint, or he has replaced everyone else who did not provide the proper alignment / synchronicity to his vision and were holding back on reforms that were necessary
https://archive.is/k1NiH
the above is a nikkei article stating that he has staffed his cabinet with lightweights
"Surprisingly lightweight" was how several China watchers described the new lineup of the State Council, the country's cabinet, after it was selected at the recent National People's Congress, the annual parliament.
China's key economic officials, including the finance minister and the governor of the People's Bank of China, are no longer part of the top leadership.
Yi Gang, the central bank governor, was reappointed to his position despite reaching the normal retirement age of 65. Yi is no longer a member of the 200-plus Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party and no longer even among the 170-plus alternate members of this elite committee -- a post he held until the party's national congress in October.
The assigning of economic portfolios dismayed many observers at a time when the world is watching to see how China will fire up its faltering economy.
There may be a number of explanations for the underwhelming State Council selections. These include Premier Li Qiang's need for safe, old hands after taking over the State Council with no previous cabinet experience -- he never served as a vice premier.
Whatever, the wings of the State Council are manifestly being clipped. With economic ministers removed from the Central Committee and higher party echelons, the concentration of power has shifted to the Communist Party -- which Xi heads -- away from the State Council.
Ongoing organizational reforms are clearly designed to strengthen the party, and future central bank policies are among those expected to include strong party infusions.
In his speech, Xi repeatedly connected the notions of "great country" and "national security" to party leadership.
Towards the end, he said: "To do a good job of governing the country, the party should do a good job of governing itself; and to build a great country, the party must be thriving."
At his first news conference, Li Qiang promised to support struggling private companies and to promote the long-standing "reform and opening-up" policy. But analysts are already noting that this has to be taken with a grain of salt.
This is because in his own speech, Xi spoke of "common prosperity," his signature concept that places more emphasis on correcting disparities than achieving high growth. If implemented strictly, it could run counter to Li's pledges to support the private sector.
The main takeaway is that China's key economic ministers may be seasoned technocrats but they are political lightweights. They now fall under He Lifeng and Zheng Shanjie, both from Xi's loyal Xiamen faction.